Paradoxically, Black Monday reveals the new importance of China: the engine of global growth and trade
When China coughs, the West gets tested for tuberculosis
Given the massive state intervention in the markets over the past few weeks, this is more akin to China finding a suspicious lump....
There's a reason rich Chinese people like to make sure as much of their money as possible is outside China. Never invest in a country without an independent judiciary.
On Topic. Labour are following an almost identical path to the Tories 97-10
Corbyn is little different to IDS. Sure the election was less noisy, but it's all the same thing really.
After a couple of years of fun the IDS outriders were farmed off to ConHome or UKIP. IDS made way to a safe pair of unifying hands.
Nah.
1. IDS was a member of the shadow cabinet from 1997-2001. Choosing Corbyn would be like the Tories picking Tony Marlow or Theresa Gorman. Apart from over Maastricht, IDS was not a serial rebel. I saw a stat today which said that Corbyn has voted against the Labour front bench more often than David Cameron has.
2. The Tories had, have, and are willing to use, a leadership ejection process. Labour hasn't, won't have, and probably wouldn't use it if they did.
Fascinating. Probably mentioned before but worth mentioning again. Polly Toynbee thinks Corbyn has definitely won - though she wants him to promise to stand down, anyway, a couple of years later.
Toynbee can be an idiot but she is supremely well connected in Labour circles. If she believes, as *apparently* is the case, that Corbyn has won this easily, then I am persuaded. He's won.
Crikey.
No, its hot air. There is no real way to properly sample the different groups of people who are taking part in this election. The Electoral Reform Society will be keeping tight lipped. The only thing leaking will be the numbers of returned ballot papers.
Nobody really knows.
Apparently there's a lot of phone banking going on so the candidates' campaigns ought to have a reasonably good idea. Anyone well connected with all the campaigns should be able to join the dots together.
As an aside, I saw a lovely tweet from Watson re the Deputy race, which went something like:
Member: "I gave you most votes" Phone bank: "Most votes?" Member; "yes: 5 to you, 4 to Angela ..."
Fascinating. Probably mentioned before but worth mentioning again. Polly Toynbee thinks Corbyn has definitely won - though she wants him to promise to stand down, anyway, a couple of years later.
Toynbee can be an idiot but she is supremely well connected in Labour circles. If she believes, as *apparently* is the case, that Corbyn has won this easily, then I am persuaded. He's won.
Crikey.
She's right of course that Corbyn must stand down after having his two or three years of fun if the Labour Party isn't to get massacred at the next election. Maybe Chuka and Tristram made the right decision not to contest this election since there's going to be another one in 2017/8.
Dan Jarvis looks like the favourite to me, or he would be if Labour has managed to keep a vestige of sanity (not guaranteed, of course). His kids will be older and his background is an immediate, 100% antidote to the deeply unpleasant Corbyn worldview. It'll be worth seeing how he reacts when JC becomes leader. He's supporting Burnham, I think.
A difficult line for Labour - the public can swallow a lot of nonsense if they trust the people peddling it, so it is right that they probably can make economic arguments that right now are out of vogue and not immediately lose because of that, should the mood shift favourably. But I do think a Tory implosion is needed as part of the Labour rehabilitation - the shift Labour are looking for as part of their new 'big tent' is quite sizable, and it helps if the tent next door collapses to convince people to come over to your one still under construction.
Even if he has to give big name posts to the old and silly and the young and callow, I should think there are enough middle of the road MPs without big ambitions but willing to step in to fill the junior postings for the sake of the party if the more actually ambitious types want to sit outside in a Farron like way, waiting for their chance.
Burnham is crucial here. If he does as he says he will, and takes a Shadow Cabinet brief (assuming one's offered, though I can't imagine it wouldn't be), then that gives the green light to the rest of Labour's soft left to follow suit. It also gives the green light to others who might want to play the 'party loyalist' card in any future, but pre-2020, leadership election.
Beyond bizarre. So they all form a shadow cabinet but are sitting there machinating about how to get rid of their leader.
While I want oil to stay low to reduce the economic power of some of the nastier governing regimes around the world, I start to worry at these sorts of levels. Saudi Arabia will blow through its reserves in about 10 years at these sorts of prices. What the hell does the world do if the House of Saud collapses and ISIS or equivalents take over?
ISIS also rely on oil money for most of their income
In many ways a prolonged slump in the price of oil is a JOLLY GOOD THING. But there will be severe short term instability which needs to be managed.
BTW I disagree with Nabavi here. I don't think we will soon return to $100 a barrel, or if we do, it won't be for long. Once the price goes over $60 a barrel US shale becomes seriously profitable again. Thus forcing the cost of a barrel of crude back down.
We may be entering a lengthy era of relatively cheap energy. Something to cheer amidst the gloom.
Now, if only low energy prices could last until someone works out the next big thing (tm) in energy production.
The massive intra- and multi-national fusion projects (NIF, ITER etc) are going to be good for research, but I'm not convinced that they're going to provide the answer to our energy problems. Instead, it is much more likely to be something like Lockheed Martin's development - smaller. cheaper and more useful.
Imagine that: forty dollar oil for ten years, then massively cheap electricity.
Well, I can dream, can't I?
Some of us remember The Economist cover from c. 1998? musing on $5 a barrel oil. It didn't take long for that to look pretty damned foolish.
Saudi needs oil heading north of $80 again. Or its economy will go tits up - and with a very young population, that will be the big recruiting driver for IS in Saudi Arabia.
Some of Corbyn's economic policies will be superficially popular with the public in the same way that Michael Foot's economic policies were superficially popular with the public. Foot was ahead in the polls for nearly 12 months after being elected leader, between November 1980 and October 1981.
And did he lose that lead because people reconsidered or because the government won the war and a couple of dozen MPs broke away and started a new party?
The big overseas owners of premium London property - Chinese, Russian and Arab - are currently seeing their fortunes diminish in various ways. Will they now start selling their holdings? Presumably, as investments they are there to be cashed in at some time. If that time is now it could get a bit tasty across the SE and beyond as the shockwaves spread. Alternativly, now may be the time for them to close out their share portfolios and buy more bricks and mortar.
They aren't investments - they're insurance policies.
If you are a wealthy Chinese politico, for instance, and you think there is a risk of political change why would you bring money back onshore?
They don't care if there is a 20% drop in London house prices (a real possibility) because they are probably already in the money and it's just a cost of having a secure asset.
FWIW, most trades I see at the moment are 5-10% below asking, and if you don't price it right then stock just sits there and doesn't dhift
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Some of Corbyn's economic policies will be superficially popular with the public in the same way that Michael Foot's economic policies were superficially popular with the public. Foot was ahead in the polls for nearly 12 months after being elected leader, between November 1980 and October 1981.
And did he lose that lead because people reconsidered or because the government won the war and a couple of dozen MPs broke away and started a new party?
Not the second reason - he was already tied with the Conservatives in March 1982, although they were both shockingly far behind the SNP (23 each to 50).
The third reason was probably important in costing him the short term lead, but the Conservative poll share was slowly rising for no apparent reason in the first quarter of 1982, which suggests people had thought 'hmmm, I don't like Thatcher, but do I really want a government led by Michael Foot and dominated by Benn and Heffer? Actually, no.'
It is generally agreed, apart from a few diehard We Wuz Robbed socialist historians, that Thatcher was always likely to win in 1983. However, it is very unlikely that she would have won such a huge victory without the Falklands War, and 100% certain she would not have won so overwhelmingly without the SNP picking up so many votes and costing Labour a great many seats they had won comfortably when the Conservatives had a higher share of the vote in 1979.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
While I want oil to stay low to reduce the economic power of some of the nastier governing regimes around the world, I start to worry at these sorts of levels. Saudi Arabia will blow through its reserves in about 10 years at these sorts of prices. What the hell does the world do if the House of Saud collapses and ISIS or equivalents take over?
ISIS also rely on oil money for most of their income
In many ways a prolonged slump in the price of oil is a JOLLY GOOD THING. But there will be severe short term instability which needs to be managed.
BTW I disagree with Nabavi here. I don't think we will soon return to $100 a barrel, or if we do, it won't be for long. Once the price goes over $60 a barrel US shale becomes seriously profitable again. Thus forcing the cost of a barrel of crude back down.
We may be entering a lengthy era of relatively cheap energy. Something to cheer amidst the gloom.
Agreed. There a hundreds, if not thousands, of wells drilled and capped, just waiting for the price to go above the magic number for that well. There is virtually no lead time to opening up these wells, as opposed to drilling new ones.
My best bet is that we will not see oil at above $60 ($75 to be really safe) for any sustained period for at least 5 years.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
1) In all LibDem/Cons marginals I moved 50% of the Labour vote to the LibDems 2) In all GB seats I took 30% of the UKIP vote and added it to Labour. 3) Then I recalculated the results. 4) Conservative gains from UKIP = 1 (Clacton) 5) LibDem gains from Conservative = 5 (Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Eastbourne, Lewes, Thornbury & Yate) 6) Labour gains from Conservative = 16 (Bedford, Peterborough, Thurrock, Derby North, Lincoln, Croydon Central, Bolton West, Bury North, Weaver Vale, Brighton Kemptown, Plymouth Moor View, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Telford, Morley & Outwood, Gower, Vale of Clwyd) 7) New seat totals and vote share: CON…310 (36.9) LAB…248 (33.6) LD ..13 (8.3) UKIP ..0 (8.9) SNP.. 56 (4.8) PC..3 (0.6) Green..1 (3.8) Others ..19 (3.1) including speaker
I've no idea whether it will, or it won't. I just crunched the numbers to see what would happen if Barnesian's proposition was played out using the 2015 results.
Thanks @disraeli Very interesting. As @MTimT points out below, it is quite an extreme set of assumptions and it results in a very marginal minority LAB government.
I've pulled the trigger on a hundred GSK today ! 6+% divi, accounts look healthy enough, people living longer and needing more drugs etc...
My daughter is considering the same trade. Question is how sustainable the dividend is post 2017. I view the firm as an interesting play on vaccines and cosumer products rather than a pharmaceutical company though.
Patent expirations are an issue. I have been looking at generic companies such as Teva.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
The big overseas owners of premium London property - Chinese, Russian and Arab - are currently seeing their fortunes diminish in various ways. Will they now start selling their holdings? Presumably, as investments they are there to be cashed in at some time. If that time is now it could get a bit tasty across the SE and beyond as the shockwaves spread. Alternativly, now may be the time for them to close out their share portfolios and buy more bricks and mortar.
They aren't investments - they're insurance policies.
If you are a wealthy Chinese politico, for instance, and you think there is a risk of political change why would you bring money back onshore?
They don't care if there is a 20% drop in London house prices (a real possibility) because they are probably already in the money and it's just a cost of having a secure asset.
FWIW, most trades I see at the moment are 5-10% below asking, and if you don't price it right then stock just sits there and doesn't dhift
Exactly the situation in my North Midlands' rather less saubrious than London market town.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Citizens of the country in which the attack took place?
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Well, if people are going to start coming up with surreal ideas, I'm going to suggest they were all signed up for Ashley Madison.
And I was not in any way influenced by this mildly amusing story:
The big overseas owners of premium London property - Chinese, Russian and Arab - are currently seeing their fortunes diminish in various ways. Will they now start selling their holdings? Presumably, as investments they are there to be cashed in at some time. If that time is now it could get a bit tasty across the SE and beyond as the shockwaves spread. Alternativly, now may be the time for them to close out their share portfolios and buy more bricks and mortar.
Curiously gold, the primary safe haven asset, hasn't risen despite these market falls. Given London property is a similar safe haven asset (albeit less liquid), I imagine it won't have too much effect.
As of now, gold is 0.86% up and has been consistently green
Afternoon all IDS's speech on getting the disabled back into work sounds thoughtful and carries the strong imprint of the Coalition and Steve Webb, whose advice will, I hope, be available to Tim Farron going forward. A really credible contribution on the advantages of getting the disabled into work and the challenges of that approach especially to SMEs. .
I hope you are right. But I expect Farron to lead the Lib Dems against this.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Well, if people are going to start coming up with surreal ideas, I'm going to suggest they were all signed up for Ashley Madison.
And I was not in any way influenced by this mildly amusing story:
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Well, if people are going to start coming up with surreal ideas, I'm going to suggest they were all signed up for Ashley Madison.
And I was not in any way influenced by this mildly amusing story:
The advantage of having all my investment money in trackers is I don't give two hoots about what the market is doing right now.
Err, you do realise that your trackers are tracking the market, right?
lo, yes, I'm not sure Alistair is the full guinea, when it comes to investments.
That said, I put a bunch of money into stocks and shares a few weeks ago, with an emphasis on Asia (I thought the bull market had another year in it, at least). Oops.
Thankfully most of my capital is in boring hard cash, and property. Thank the Lord for London property.
I keep forgetting to transfer money into my stocks and shares ISA so avoided doubling my holding in asia pacific investments.
I dumped my UK and developed world holdings a long while ago when the FTSE was around 6200 and have sat mainly in cash since then. A lucky escape. Tempted to pull the trigger and dive back in although I think the worst is yet to come.
The worry is those investors who have borrowed money at low rates to invest in equities expecting a capital gain who are now forced sellers pushing pushing prices down in a vicious circle. This probably more of a US problem but it spills over.
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
The advantage of having all my investment money in trackers is I don't give two hoots about what the market is doing right now.
Err, you do realise that your trackers are tracking the market, right?
lo, yes, I'm not sure Alistair is the full guinea, when it comes to investments.
That said, I put a bunch of money into stocks and shares a few weeks ago, with an emphasis on Asia (I thought the bull market had another year in it, at least). Oops.
Thankfully most of my capital is in boring hard cash, and property. Thank the Lord for London property.
I keep forgetting to transfer money into my stocks and shares ISA so avoided doubling my holding in asia pacific investments.
I dumped my UK and developed world holdings a long while ago when the FTSE was around 6200 and have sat mainly in cash since then. A lucky escape. Tempted to pull the trigger and dive back in although I think the worst is yet to come.
The worry is those investors who have borrowed money at low rates to invest in equities expecting a capital gain who are now forced sellers pushing pushing prices down in a vicious circle. This probably more of a US problem but it spills over.
I would be concerned about it being a Chinese problem. Heady recent gains, a lack of institutional or personal memory of banking crashes and (I suspect) lax regulation around borrowing do not a happy mix make.
I've said it before: Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
I've said it before: Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
1) In all LibDem/Cons marginals I moved 50% of the Labour vote to the LibDems 2) In all GB seats I took 30% of the UKIP vote and added it to Labour. 3) Then I recalculated the results. 4) Conservative gains from UKIP = 1 (Clacton) 5) LibDem gains from Conservative = 5 (Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Eastbourne, Lewes, Thornbury & Yate) 6) Labour gains from Conservative = 16 (Bedford, Peterborough, Thurrock, Derby North, Lincoln, Croydon Central, Bolton West, Bury North, Weaver Vale, Brighton Kemptown, Plymouth Moor View, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Telford, Morley & Outwood, Gower, Vale of Clwyd) 7) New seat totals and vote share: CON…310 (36.9) LAB…248 (33.6) LD ..13 (8.3) UKIP ..0 (8.9) SNP.. 56 (4.8) PC..3 (0.6) Green..1 (3.8) Others ..19 (3.1) including speaker
I've no idea whether it will, or it won't. I just crunched the numbers to see what would happen if Barnesian's proposition was played out using the 2015 results.
Thanks @disraeli Very interesting. As @MTimT points out below, it is quite an extreme set of assumptions and it results in a very marginal minority LAB government.
No problem. Any time you want to try out some theories let me know and I'll run the numbers.
The advantage of having all my investment money in trackers is I don't give two hoots about what the market is doing right now.
Err, you do realise that your trackers are tracking the market, right?
lo, yes, I'm not sure Alistair is the full guinea, when it comes to investments.
That said, I put a bunch of money into stocks and shares a few weeks ago, with an emphasis on Asia (I thought the bull market had another year in it, at least). Oops.
Thankfully most of my capital is in boring hard cash, and property. Thank the Lord for London property.
I keep forgetting to transfer money into my stocks and shares ISA so avoided doubling my holding in asia pacific investments.
I dumped my UK and developed world holdings a long while ago when the FTSE was around 6200 and have sat mainly in cash since then. A lucky escape. Tempted to pull the trigger and dive back in although I think the worst is yet to come.
The worry is those investors who have borrowed money at low rates to invest in equities expecting a capital gain who are now forced sellers pushing pushing prices down in a vicious circle. This probably more of a US problem but it spills over.
I think borrowing money to invest in equities is a real issue in China. Especially as they are used to abnormal returns. The same has happened with housing.
Having piled his life savings (plus his relatives' money) into the market, thanks to encouragement from his broker he borrowed $1 million in margin and bet it all on one stock - a local mining company.
Now, after being forced to liquidate by the same risk-encouraging brokerage, he has suffered catastrophic losses... and he is not alone...
"I don't know what to do... I trusted the government too much..." he exclaims, adding "I won't touch stocks again, I have ruined everyone in my family."
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Well, if people are going to start coming up with surreal ideas, I'm going to suggest they were all signed up for Ashley Madison.
And I was not in any way influenced by this mildly amusing story:
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
All this talk about money. Herself had a letter this morning detailing her pension which is to be paid as of 1st September. This lead to a fast but, regrettably, accurate exploration of the Llama household finances. That is to say she now knows exactly how much she would receive each month, and a fair a idea of what sort of lump sum she would get, were I to peg out before her. I may need to employ a food taster.
I've said it before: Clive Lewis is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
He's got a couple of other superficial plus points as well. Furthermore, he's an Afghan veteran, not merely "served in the Army Reserves" and quite clearly aware of the good things it can do for people. Lastly, he's very telegenic and has experience with the medium.
While I think he sometimes comes across as a grade A belmont ("New Labour is dead and buried"), the goat line ain't a gaffe and I think you're right in your analysis.
I've said it before: Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
The advantage of having all my investment money in trackers is I don't give two hoots about what the market is doing right now.
Err, you do realise that your trackers are tracking the market, right?
lo, yes, I'm not sure Alistair is the full guinea, when it comes to investments.
That said, I put a bunch of money into stocks and shares a few weeks ago, with an emphasis on Asia (I thought the bull market had another year in it, at least). Oops.
Thankfully most of my capital is in boring hard cash, and property. Thank the Lord for London property.
I keep forgetting to transfer money into my stocks and shares ISA so avoided doubling my holding in asia pacific investments.
I dumped my UK and developed world holdings a long while ago when the FTSE was around 6200 and have sat mainly in cash since then. A lucky escape. Tempted to pull the trigger and dive back in although I think the worst is yet to come.
The worry is those investors who have borrowed money at low rates to invest in equities expecting a capital gain who are now forced sellers pushing pushing prices down in a vicious circle. This probably more of a US problem but it spills over.
I think borrowing money to invest in equities is a real issue in China. Especially as they are used to abnormal returns. The same has happened with housing.
Having piled his life savings (plus his relatives' money) into the market, thanks to encouragement from his broker he borrowed $1 million in margin and bet it all on one stock - a local mining company.
Now, after being forced to liquidate by the same risk-encouraging brokerage, he has suffered catastrophic losses... and he is not alone...
"I don't know what to do... I trusted the government too much..." he exclaims, adding "I won't touch stocks again, I have ruined everyone in my family."
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
No: the dust up that Andrew Lansley revealed (should it turn out to be true) was to do with the renegotiation of terms.
That said, I suspect that Lansley was - in all honesty - forecasting what he thought would happen. I think that has been slightly twisted to suggest that there is a choreographed plan that has been dreamt up between Merkel, Hollande and Cameron.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Cannabis use?
Yes
Some of the other answers were correct too, but this is what I was getting at
Not saying its 100% the cause, but worth keeping an eye on whenever one of these grotesque attacks occur
A 2011 census showed approximately 1.1 per cent of the Scottish population speak Gaelic.
In 2010 the SNP announced a £26m plan to replace road signs with English and Gaelic place names.
The sign welcoming ferry passengers to Bute has been in place for at least six years but it has only just come to light that it is missing a vital Gaelic punctuation sign.
The result is that instead of reading “Welcome to the beauty of the Isle of Bute”, the sign proclaims “Welcome to the Beauty of Penis Island”.
I've said it before: Clive Lewis is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
He's got a couple of other superficial plus points as well. Furthermore, he's an Afghan veteran, not merely "served in the Army Reserves" and quite clearly aware of the good things it can do for people. Lastly, he's very telegenic and has experience with the medium.
While I think he sometimes comes across as a grade A belmont ("New Labour is dead and buried"), the goat line ain't a gaffe and I think you're right in your analysis.
The goat line might serve well for Jeremy Corbyn's chances, the way things have gone.
However, isn't anyone who is considering his chances slightly concerned by the fact that he is a rookie MP in a seat Labour would be foolish to take for granted if it tacked to the left, given that it was lost in 1983 and 2005?
The advantage of having all my investment money in trackers is I don't give two hoots about what the market is doing right now.
Err, you do realise that your trackers are tracking the market, right?
lo, yes, I'm not sure Alistair is the full guinea, when it comes to investments.
That said, I put a bunch of money into stocks and shares a few weeks ago, with an emphasis on Asia (I thought the bull market had another year in it, at least). Oops.
Thankfully most of my capital is in boring hard cash, and property. Thank the Lord for London property.
I keep forgetting to transfer money into my stocks and shares ISA so avoided doubling my holding in asia pacific investments.
I dumped my UK and developed world holdings a long while ago when the FTSE was around 6200 and have sat mainly in cash since then. A lucky escape. Tempted to pull the trigger and dive back in although I think the worst is yet to come.
The worry is those investors who have borrowed money at low rates to invest in equities expecting a capital gain who are now forced sellers pushing pushing prices down in a vicious circle. This probably more of a US problem but it spills over.
I think borrowing money to invest in equities is a real issue in China. Especially as they are used to abnormal returns. The same has happened with housing.
Having piled his life savings (plus his relatives' money) into the market, thanks to encouragement from his broker he borrowed $1 million in margin and bet it all on one stock - a local mining company.
Now, after being forced to liquidate by the same risk-encouraging brokerage, he has suffered catastrophic losses... and he is not alone...
"I don't know what to do... I trusted the government too much..." he exclaims, adding "I won't touch stocks again, I have ruined everyone in my family."
Bloody hell. Brings new meaning to the term putting all your eggs into one basket.
Isn't this exactly what caused the problems in 1929? People had borrowed to invest. So their losses caused that much more pain than simply losing money they had.
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
And Pickles has been unceremoniously dumped already. I'm inclined to agree Duncan Smith would be good odds to leave the Cabinet next - once he's finished doing whatever it is he wants to do, there's little point in him staying and he's said he doesn't want to move. That would allow Cameron to be a bit more touchy-feely than IDS's 'tough love' approach.
No: the dust up that Andrew Lansley revealed (should it turn out to be true) was to do with the renegotiation of terms.
That said, I suspect that Lansley was - in all honesty - forecasting what he thought would happen. I think that has been slightly twisted to suggest that there is a choreographed plan that has been dreamt up between Merkel, Hollande and Cameron.
If we start hearing stories about the EU wanting to ban the British Banger (or rename it the High Fat Emulsified Offal Tube) then we will know something is up...
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Cannabis use?
Yes
Some of the other answers were correct too, but this is what I was getting at
Not saying its 100% the cause, but worth keeping an eye on whenever one of these grotesque attacks occur
Interesting, I didn't know. I see your point. Wasn't it also used by gangsters in 1920s America to suppress their moral inhibitions about killing people?
Should be much more widely disseminated, if only to destroy these people's credibility in the eyes of devout Muslims, who are of course forbidden all forms of narcotic. You cannot be a martyr if you have polluted your body in that way (or by committing adultery, for that matter).
It has happened before. Does anyone remember that idiot from Luton in the Danish cartoons controversy who posed wearing a suicide vest in protest? And was then outed as a drug pusher on parole and sent back to prison for breaching his parole terms. I did find that rather funny, although I don't think many Muslims did.
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
A 2011 census showed approximately 1.1 per cent of the Scottish population speak Gaelic.
In 2010 the SNP announced a £26m plan to replace road signs with English and Gaelic place names.
The sign welcoming ferry passengers to Bute has been in place for at least six years but it has only just come to light that it is missing a vital Gaelic punctuation sign.
The result is that instead of reading “Welcome to the beauty of the Isle of Bute”, the sign proclaims “Welcome to the Beauty of Penis Island”.
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
And Pickles has been unceremoniously dumped already. I'm inclined to agree Duncan Smith would be good odds to leave the Cabinet next - once he's finished doing whatever it is he wants to do, there's little point in him staying and he's said he doesn't want to move. That would allow Cameron to be a bit more touchy-feely than IDS's 'tough love' approach.
I can't see him going anywhere until the Universal Credit (basically his brainchild) rollout is complete. That takes you to at least 25/04/2016 without any delays and I'm pretty sure that is just single claimants. (Not families/children etc.) Plus any delays.
I know my reputation for watching pulp TV is becoming infamous - however, I've got to say that THE most common issue brought up for paranoia/explosive anger/irrational behaviour on Jeremy Kyle is cannabis use. It appears in about 80% of their guests with a serious habit.
It's been quite an eye-opener. Drunks and heroin/cocaine users rarely cite such behaviour. It's made me change my opinion about cannabis. It's changed a lot since I was a kid.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Cannabis use?
Yes
Some of the other answers were correct too, but this is what I was getting at
Not saying its 100% the cause, but worth keeping an eye on whenever one of these grotesque attacks occur
A 2011 census showed approximately 1.1 per cent of the Scottish population speak Gaelic.
In 2010 the SNP announced a £26m plan to replace road signs with English and Gaelic place names.
The sign welcoming ferry passengers to Bute has been in place for at least six years but it has only just come to light that it is missing a vital Gaelic punctuation sign.
The result is that instead of reading “Welcome to the beauty of the Isle of Bute”, the sign proclaims “Welcome to the Beauty of Penis Island”.
Gaelic coach for the TV series Outlander, Àdhamh Ó Broin, explained the cock-up.
He said: “It’s meant to be the genitive case, not the genital case.
“A genitive case is when one noun follows another and its form changes.
“Bhòid is Bute but Bod is penis. You would need the accent over the “O”.
“It says, ‘Welcome to the doorway to the beauty of Penis Island’.
He added: “You know when people speak Chinese the wrong way and they end up saying “Your mother is a dog” instead of “The rice is nice.”? It’s like that.”
Even better than that time in Wales some idiot wrote the auto-reply on a new sign, not realising what it was, so instead of saying 'Commercial deliveries at the rear' it said 'there is nobody in the office until Monday.'
Some of Corbyn's economic policies will be superficially popular with the public in the same way that Michael Foot's economic policies were superficially popular with the public. Foot was ahead in the polls for nearly 12 months after being elected leader, between November 1980 and October 1981.
And did he lose that lead because people reconsidered or because the government won the war and a couple of dozen MPs broke away and started a new party?
Because voters like the idea of a free lunch in mid-term, but when it comes to the election most of them take a more realistic view.
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown is due to speak at the Edinburgh Book Festival this weekend and will say he has voted in Labour’s leadership election for Yvette Cooper as No1, Andy Burnham No2 and Liz Kendall No3
I've said it before: Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
Has Corbyn ever done or said anything to indicate he is pro-British?
I've said it before: Clive Lewis is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
He's got a couple of other superficial plus points as well. Furthermore, he's an Afghan veteran, not merely "served in the Army Reserves" and quite clearly aware of the good things it can do for people. Lastly, he's very telegenic and has experience with the medium.
While I think he sometimes comes across as a grade A belmont ("New Labour is dead and buried"), the goat line ain't a gaffe and I think you're right in your analysis.
The goat line might serve well for Jeremy Corbyn's chances, the way things have gone.
However, isn't anyone who is considering his chances slightly concerned by the fact that he is a rookie MP in a seat Labour would be foolish to take for granted if it tacked to the left, given that it was lost in 1983 and 2005?
Not really: Norwich South is one of the archetypal university/Guardianista seats which only rejected Labour in 2010 because they thought the Lib Dems were a more leftwing version of them.
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
And Pickles has been unceremoniously dumped already. I'm inclined to agree Duncan Smith would be good odds to leave the Cabinet next - once he's finished doing whatever it is he wants to do, there's little point in him staying and he's said he doesn't want to move. That would allow Cameron to be a bit more touchy-feely than IDS's 'tough love' approach.
I can't see him going anywhere until the Universal Credit (basically his brainchild) rollout is complete. That takes you to at least 25/04/2016 without any delays and I'm pretty sure that is just single claimants. (Not families/children etc.) Plus any delays.
Yes - but who else is likely to be going earlier than that? We saw last time around how reluctant Cameron is to reshuffle his cabinet, and I doubt if even the change from a coalition will suddenly make him more ruthless. There is nobody else on that one big, over-arching project timescale - the rest of them are just managing departments. So short of a scandal, I think he's favourite to go next.
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
And Pickles has been unceremoniously dumped already. I'm inclined to agree Duncan Smith would be good odds to leave the Cabinet next - once he's finished doing whatever it is he wants to do, there's little point in him staying and he's said he doesn't want to move. That would allow Cameron to be a bit more touchy-feely than IDS's 'tough love' approach.
I can't see him going anywhere until the Universal Credit (basically his brainchild) rollout is complete. That takes you to at least 25/04/2016 without any delays and I'm pretty sure that is just single claimants. (Not families/children etc.) Plus any delays.
IDS will stay until 12 months before the election... see Gove to Morgan in 2014.
I've said it before: Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
Has Corbyn ever done or said anything to indicate he is pro-British?
Austerity is against the interests of most British people. If he's against Austerity, then, by definition, he must be pro-British people.
I've said it before: Clive Lewis is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
He's got a couple of other superficial plus points as well. Furthermore, he's an Afghan veteran, not merely "served in the Army Reserves" and quite clearly aware of the good things it can do for people. Lastly, he's very telegenic and has experience with the medium.
While I think he sometimes comes across as a grade A belmont ("New Labour is dead and buried"), the goat line ain't a gaffe and I think you're right in your analysis.
The goat line might serve well for Jeremy Corbyn's chances, the way things have gone.
However, isn't anyone who is considering his chances slightly concerned by the fact that he is a rookie MP in a seat Labour would be foolish to take for granted if it tacked to the left, given that it was lost in 1983 and 2005?
Not really: Norwich South is one of the archetypal university/Guardianista seats which only rejected Labour in 2010 because they thought the Lib Dems were a more leftwing version of them.
So it's like Romsey and Southampton North or Southampton Itchen or Oxford West and Abingdon? All of which are held by, oh yes, the Conservatives.
Academics aren't much in love with the government at the moment, but don't assume the younger generation of them are actually more radical than the population at large. They have mortgages and a passion for foreign holidays too! As for students, they make a lot of noise, but don't vote - and then complain even more angrily when somehow, somebody they don't like gets in.
On the cannabis use point, what we don't know is whether this is what has caused them to act in this way or whether, having become radicalised, cannabis is used as a way of overcoming inhibitions against grotesque behaviour or whether the radicalisers pick on people who are already disinhibited/vulnerable through cannabis use.
I think it was also shown that those involved in the 9/11 attacks used prostitutes and drank alcohol. But given that murder is - we are told - unIslamic, I'm sceptical whether saying that some jihadists are also drug users will stop others inclined to become jihadists. I'd have thought that such people are likely to ignore anything which doesn't fit in with their predetermined view or dismiss it as lies/smears etc.
Some of Corbyn's economic policies will be superficially popular with the public in the same way that Michael Foot's economic policies were superficially popular with the public. Foot was ahead in the polls for nearly 12 months after being elected leader, between November 1980 and October 1981.
And did he lose that lead because people reconsidered or because the government won the war and a couple of dozen MPs broke away and started a new party?
Because voters like the idea of a free lunch in mid-term, but when it comes to the election most of them take a more realistic view.
Personally, I think there's a case that Foot wasn't rejected for being "too left-wing" per se, but because his policies were perceived as a return to the failed 1970s policies which people felt Thatcher was making a move in the right direction away from.
Well, whatever anyone thinks of 'Corbynomics', no-one is going to be able to claim it's been tried in recent memory, and for people who are sick to the back teeth of the status quo, it's very possible that the idea of a drastic change will appeal to people.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Cannabis use?
Yes
Some of the other answers were correct too, but this is what I was getting at
Not saying its 100% the cause, but worth keeping an eye on whenever one of these grotesque attacks occur
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Cannabis use?
Yes
Some of the other answers were correct too, but this is what I was getting at
Not saying its 100% the cause, but worth keeping an eye on whenever one of these grotesque attacks occur
Did you see the Trevor Kavanagh column today,very good read.
If you didn't see it,I'll let you know his headline 'We're at the mercy of lefties who think having any borders at all is racism'
We have some on here with that sort of extremist thinking.
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
And Pickles has been unceremoniously dumped already. I'm inclined to agree Duncan Smith would be good odds to leave the Cabinet next - once he's finished doing whatever it is he wants to do, there's little point in him staying and he's said he doesn't want to move. That would allow Cameron to be a bit more touchy-feely than IDS's 'tough love' approach.
I can't see him going anywhere until the Universal Credit (basically his brainchild) rollout is complete. That takes you to at least 25/04/2016 without any delays and I'm pretty sure that is just single claimants. (Not families/children etc.) Plus any delays.
Yes - but who else is likely to be going earlier than that? We saw last time around how reluctant Cameron is to reshuffle his cabinet, and I doubt if even the change from a coalition will suddenly make him more ruthless. There is nobody else on that one big, over-arching project timescale - the rest of them are just managing departments. So short of a scandal, I think he's favourite to go next.
I think Theresa May has a bigger chance of getting the boot first, Doctor. Unfair as it maybe she is the one in line to cop the blame for HMG's failure to deliver on Cameron's immigration promise. When the next set of full year figures are released the shIt will hit the fan and this time Cameron will not be able to blame the Lib Dems and that is regardless of this summer's hoo-ha in the Channel.
I've said it before: Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
Has Corbyn ever done or said anything to indicate he is pro-British?
Austerity is against the interests of most British people. If he's against Austerity, then, by definition, he must be pro-British people.
'It's not in my interest. And I represent the public. Therefore, it's not in the public interest.'
'That's a novel argument. We haven't tried that one on them before.'
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
And Pickles has been unceremoniously dumped already. I'm inclined to agree Duncan Smith would be good odds to leave the Cabinet next - once he's finished doing whatever it is he wants to do, there's little point in him staying and he's said he doesn't want to move. That would allow Cameron to be a bit more touchy-feely than IDS's 'tough love' approach.
I can't see him going anywhere until the Universal Credit (basically his brainchild) rollout is complete. That takes you to at least 25/04/2016 without any delays and I'm pretty sure that is just single claimants. (Not families/children etc.) Plus any delays.
Yes - but who else is likely to be going earlier than that? We saw last time around how reluctant Cameron is to reshuffle his cabinet, and I doubt if even the change from a coalition will suddenly make him more ruthless. There is nobody else on that one big, over-arching project timescale - the rest of them are just managing departments. So short of a scandal, I think he's favourite to go next.
I think Theresa May has a bigger chance of getting the boot first, Doctor. Unfair as it maybe she is the one in line to cop the blame for HMG's failure to deliver on Cameron's immigration promise. When the next set of full year figures are released the shIt will hit the fan and this time Cameron will not be able to blame the Lib Dems and that is regardless of this summer's hoo-ha in the Channel.
Your logic is compelling, but there is one simple answer to it - Jeremy Hunt. Merely cocking up enormously on a key plank of policy is not, so far as can be judged, a hanging offence under Cameron. Unless she is found to have actively made matters worse, I think he'll hang on to May.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Cannabis use?
Yes
Some of the other answers were correct too, but this is what I was getting at
Not saying its 100% the cause, but worth keeping an eye on whenever one of these grotesque attacks occur
Not 100% the cause? Er, yeah. Dope causes Islam. Keep smoking.
FWIW there is plenty of evidence that ISIS hand out drugs - probably amphetamines - to their fighters in Syria and Iraq. Just like many armies through history which have got their warriors hopped up (including the British with the rum ration)
There is no causal link. The kind of young drop outs attracted to ISIS are very likely to be the kind of kids who will try drugs. Who cares. Kill them all.
Actually I picked those examples as a kind of garden path technique, but there are others that don't involve Islam at all even allowing for the fact that the Edmonton beheader and the Bradford pupil were not citing ISIS/jihaf etc
"..the culprits of the 2011 Tucson massacre,at which Congreswoman Gabrielle Giffords was terribly wounded and six people died, the culprits of the beheading of Jennifer Mills Westley in Tenerife, of the beheading of Mrs Palmira Silva in London, of the grotesque murder of Lee Rigby in Woolwich, of the Charlie Hebdo and related killings in Paris, of the killings of two Canadian soldiers in the past year, of the bludgeoning to death of Sheffield church organist Alan Greaves, not to mention a large number of other notably violent and deranged, irrational crimes ( see: http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2011/07/high-and-violent.html ) have all been revealed to be cannabis users.
So, am I saying that everyone who smokes cannabis is a mass killer? Of course not, though, again, the cannabis comment warriors will be quick to suggest that this is my case, in the hope of fooling as many people as they can. "
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
And Pickles has been unceremoniously dumped already. I'm inclined to agree Duncan Smith would be good odds to leave the Cabinet next - once he's finished doing whatever it is he wants to do, there's little point in him staying and he's said he doesn't want to move. That would allow Cameron to be a bit more touchy-feely than IDS's 'tough love' approach.
I can't see him going anywhere until the Universal Credit (basically his brainchild) rollout is complete. That takes you to at least 25/04/2016 without any delays and I'm pretty sure that is just single claimants. (Not families/children etc.) Plus any delays.
Yes - but who else is likely to be going earlier than that? We saw last time around how reluctant Cameron is to reshuffle his cabinet, and I doubt if even the change from a coalition will suddenly make him more ruthless. There is nobody else on that one big, over-arching project timescale - the rest of them are just managing departments. So short of a scandal, I think he's favourite to go next.
I think Theresa May has a bigger chance of getting the boot first, Doctor. Unfair as it maybe she is the one in line to cop the blame for HMG's failure to deliver on Cameron's immigration promise. When the next set of full year figures are released the shIt will hit the fan and this time Cameron will not be able to blame the Lib Dems and that is regardless of this summer's hoo-ha in the Channel.
As an aside, isn't May the longest-serving home secretary in yonks?
Edit: on a quick check, at the end of the year she'll have overtaken R.A.Butler who served from 1957 to 1962, since when there have been 21 other home secretaries.
What are the best odds on IDS being the next to leave the cabinet? I can't really see Cameron keeping him as a lightning rod for much longer, he is getting too toxic.
Toxic? The man is a hero to the rank and file. His reforms to welfare have turned around lives. Universal Credit, a system that has had a lot of teething problems seems to be coming slowly on stream. It truly is a game changer for the 'welfare trap', and something that Labour in Government would have been pushing with themselves if the technology was as reliable and feasible ten to fifteen years ago.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
And Pickles has been unceremoniously dumped already. I'm inclined to agree Duncan Smith would be good odds to leave the Cabinet next - once he's finished doing whatever it is he wants to do, there's little point in him staying and he's said he doesn't want to move. That would allow Cameron to be a bit more touchy-feely than IDS's 'tough love' approach.
I can't see him going anywhere until the Universal Credit (basically his brainchild) rollout is complete. That takes you to at least 25/04/2016 without any delays and I'm pretty sure that is just single claimants. (Not families/children etc.) Plus any delays.
Yes - but who else is likely to be going earlier than that? We saw last time around how reluctant Cameron is to reshuffle his cabinet, and I doubt if even the change from a coalition will suddenly make him more ruthless. There is nobody else on that one big, over-arching project timescale - the rest of them are just managing departments. So short of a scandal, I think he's favourite to go next.
I think Theresa May has a bigger chance of getting the boot first, Doctor. Unfair as it maybe she is the one in line to cop the blame for HMG's failure to deliver on Cameron's immigration promise. When the next set of full year figures are released the shIt will hit the fan and this time Cameron will not be able to blame the Lib Dems and that is regardless of this summer's hoo-ha in the Channel.
As an aside, isn't May the longest-serving home secretary in yonks?
Some of Corbyn's economic policies will be superficially popular with the public in the same way that Michael Foot's economic policies were superficially popular with the public. Foot was ahead in the polls for nearly 12 months after being elected leader, between November 1980 and October 1981.
And did he lose that lead because people reconsidered or because the government won the war and a couple of dozen MPs broke away and started a new party?
Because voters like the idea of a free lunch in mid-term, but when it comes to the election most of them take a more realistic view.
Personally, I think there's a case that Foot wasn't rejected for being "too left-wing" per se, but because his policies were perceived as a return to the failed 1970s policies which people felt Thatcher was making a move in the right direction away from.
Well, whatever anyone thinks of 'Corbynomics', no-one is going to be able to claim it's been tried in recent memory, and for people who are sick to the back teeth of the status quo, it's very possible that the idea of a drastic change will appeal to people.
I've said it before: Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
Has Corbyn ever done or said anything to indicate he is pro-British?
I'm intrigued. How does the scenario pan out whereby Corbyn is not leader and another left winger is elected? Corbyn resigns admitting he never wanted to be PM after all?
As an aside, isn't May the longest-serving home secretary in yonks?
Edit: on a quick check, at the end of the year she'll have overtaken R.A.Butler who served from 1957 to 1962, since when there have been 21 other home secretaries.
Quite impressive staying power in what is one of the more treacherous jobs in government.
I wonder how many home secretaries have gone on to become PM in the modern era, compared to the other great offices of state?
James Callaghan was one, but off hand I think he was the only one since Churchill. Neither went direct from the Home Office though.
May will be the longest-serving home secretary since Ede if she lasts until next year, and I think I'm right in saying he holds the record for consecutive years in office behind the Duke of Portland under rather different circumstances in the eighteenth century. Certainly he was the longest serving of the twentieth century, ahead of Ede, Morrison, Butler and Joynson-Hicks (whom May has already surpassed, as he didn't quite last five years) although Richard Cross I think holds the overall record for years at the office (1874-80 and 1885-86).
I've said it before: Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is the one to get on as the Corbyn successor. He's left-wing, but younger (and thus more "prime-ministerial"). Most crucially of all, he served in the Army Reserves, which insulates him from any of the criticisms about being anti-British that Corbyn might get.
Has Corbyn ever done or said anything to indicate he is pro-British?
I'm intrigued. How does the scenario pan out whereby Corbyn is not leader and another left winger is elected? Corbyn resigns admitting he never wanted to be PM after all?
Basically, yes. I'm still not convinced he wants to be PM / a long-term leader. I personally expect even if he is "successful", he would want to hand over to an heir(ess) before 2020.
What do the killers of Lee Rigby, the pupil who stabbed the teacher in Bradford, the man who beheaded the lady in Edmonton, the Charlie Hebdo attackers, the Tunisian hotel terrorist and the gunman on the Paris bound train have in common?
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
Cannabis use?
Yes
Some of the other answers were correct too, but this is what I was getting at
Not saying its 100% the cause, but worth keeping an eye on whenever one of these grotesque attacks occur
Did you see the Trevor Kavanagh column today,very good read.
If you didn't see it,I'll let you know his headline 'We're at the mercy of lefties who think having any borders at all is racism'
We have some on here with that sort of extremist thinking.
We do.. and quite a few of those lefties are "Conservatives"
Comments
1. IDS was a member of the shadow cabinet from 1997-2001. Choosing Corbyn would be like the Tories picking Tony Marlow or Theresa Gorman. Apart from over Maastricht, IDS was not a serial rebel. I saw a stat today which said that Corbyn has voted against the Labour front bench more often than David Cameron has.
2. The Tories had, have, and are willing to use, a leadership ejection process. Labour hasn't, won't have, and probably wouldn't use it if they did.
As an aside, I saw a lovely tweet from Watson re the Deputy race, which went something like:
Member: "I gave you most votes"
Phone bank: "Most votes?"
Member; "yes: 5 to you, 4 to Angela ..."
I can imagine Tory MPs at PMQs shouting "They're behind you!!"
Saudi needs oil heading north of $80 again. Or its economy will go tits up - and with a very young population, that will be the big recruiting driver for IS in Saudi Arabia.
If you are a wealthy Chinese politico, for instance, and you think there is a risk of political change why would you bring money back onshore?
They don't care if there is a 20% drop in London house prices (a real possibility) because they are probably already in the money and it's just a cost of having a secure asset.
FWIW, most trades I see at the moment are 5-10% below asking, and if you don't price it right then stock just sits there and doesn't dhift
France and Germany are pushing for new EU-wide talks on what has been described as the worst migrant crisis since the Second World War.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11820738/Germany-expected-to-demand-Britain-take-greater-share-of-migrants.html
Answer is not the first that springs to mind...
The third reason was probably important in costing him the short term lead, but the Conservative poll share was slowly rising for no apparent reason in the first quarter of 1982, which suggests people had thought 'hmmm, I don't like Thatcher, but do I really want a government led by Michael Foot and dominated by Benn and Heffer? Actually, no.'
It is generally agreed, apart from a few diehard We Wuz Robbed socialist historians, that Thatcher was always likely to win in 1983. However, it is very unlikely that she would have won such a huge victory without the Falklands War, and 100% certain she would not have won so overwhelmingly without the SNP picking up so many votes and costing Labour a great many seats they had won comfortably when the Conservatives had a higher share of the vote in 1979.
My best bet is that we will not see oil at above $60 ($75 to be really safe) for any sustained period for at least 5 years.
Some shifts in days; some sits for years.
And I was not in any way influenced by this mildly amusing story:
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/08/24/exclusive-islamist-hamza-tzortziss-ashley-madison-full-account-details-revealed/
Are we expecting markets to continue tumbling like a whore's drawers tomorrow?
Were they all Moroccans?
Can I buy some of your optimism?
Any time you want to try out some theories let me know and I'll run the numbers.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/review-ghost-on-throne-by-james-romm.html
James Romm's Ghost on the Throne is really rather good.
All have the same star sign and misunderstood the Zodiac Killer's MO?
While I think he sometimes comes across as a grade A belmont ("New Labour is dead and buried"), the goat line ain't a gaffe and I think you're right in your analysis.
That, and longevity of the decline, could create some turbulence for the Communist Party.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Llama, be worried if she takes you out to dinner and the waiter's name is Iolaus
Bloody hell. Brings new meaning to the term putting all your eggs into one basket.
To the grassroots he, along with Pickles is probably one of the most highly thought of cabinet ministers.
That said, I suspect that Lansley was - in all honesty - forecasting what he thought would happen. I think that has been slightly twisted to suggest that there is a choreographed plan that has been dreamt up between Merkel, Hollande and Cameron.
Some of the other answers were correct too, but this is what I was getting at
Not saying its 100% the cause, but worth keeping an eye on whenever one of these grotesque attacks occur
In 2010 the SNP announced a £26m plan to replace road signs with English and Gaelic place names.
The sign welcoming ferry passengers to Bute has been in place for at least six years but it has only just come to light that it is missing a vital Gaelic punctuation sign.
The result is that instead of reading “Welcome to the beauty of the Isle of Bute”, the sign proclaims “Welcome to the Beauty of Penis Island”.
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/heritage/bute-renamed-penis-island-in-gaelic-sign-blunder-1-3867056
However, isn't anyone who is considering his chances slightly concerned by the fact that he is a rookie MP in a seat Labour would be foolish to take for granted if it tacked to the left, given that it was lost in 1983 and 2005?
Isn't this exactly what caused the problems in 1929? People had borrowed to invest. So their losses caused that much more pain than simply losing money they had.
Should be much more widely disseminated, if only to destroy these people's credibility in the eyes of devout Muslims, who are of course forbidden all forms of narcotic. You cannot be a martyr if you have polluted your body in that way (or by committing adultery, for that matter).
It has happened before. Does anyone remember that idiot from Luton in the Danish cartoons controversy who posed wearing a suicide vest in protest? And was then outed as a drug pusher on parole and sent back to prison for breaching his parole terms. I did find that rather funny, although I don't think many Muslims did.
It's been quite an eye-opener. Drunks and heroin/cocaine users rarely cite such behaviour. It's made me change my opinion about cannabis. It's changed a lot since I was a kid.
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown is due to speak at the Edinburgh Book Festival this weekend and will say he has voted in Labour’s leadership election for Yvette Cooper as No1, Andy Burnham No2 and Liz Kendall No3
http://gordonandsarahbrown.com/2015/08/brown-votes-yvette-cooper-no1-for-labour-leader
Academics aren't much in love with the government at the moment, but don't assume the younger generation of them are actually more radical than the population at large. They have mortgages and a passion for foreign holidays too! As for students, they make a lot of noise, but don't vote - and then complain even more angrily when somehow, somebody they don't like gets in.
I think it was also shown that those involved in the 9/11 attacks used prostitutes and drank alcohol. But given that murder is - we are told - unIslamic, I'm sceptical whether saying that some jihadists are also drug users will stop others inclined to become jihadists. I'd have thought that such people are likely to ignore anything which doesn't fit in with their predetermined view or dismiss it as lies/smears etc.
Well, whatever anyone thinks of 'Corbynomics', no-one is going to be able to claim it's been tried in recent memory, and for people who are sick to the back teeth of the status quo, it's very possible that the idea of a drastic change will appeal to people.
If you didn't see it,I'll let you know his headline 'We're at the mercy of lefties who think having any borders at all is racism'
We have some on here with that sort of extremist thinking.
'That's a novel argument. We haven't tried that one on them before.'
Yes Minister: The Challenge.
"..the culprits of the 2011 Tucson massacre,at which Congreswoman Gabrielle Giffords was terribly wounded and six people died, the culprits of the beheading of Jennifer Mills Westley in Tenerife, of the beheading of Mrs Palmira Silva in London, of the grotesque murder of Lee Rigby in Woolwich, of the Charlie Hebdo and related killings in Paris, of the killings of two Canadian soldiers in the past year, of the bludgeoning to death of Sheffield church organist Alan Greaves, not to mention a large number of other notably violent and deranged, irrational crimes ( see: http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2011/07/high-and-violent.html ) have all been revealed to be cannabis users.
So, am I saying that everyone who smokes cannabis is a mass killer? Of course not, though, again, the cannabis comment warriors will be quick to suggest that this is my case, in the hope of fooling as many people as they can. "
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/06/yes-the-tunisian-killer-was-on-cannabis-too-so-what-.html
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/635855053165883392
Edit: on a quick check, at the end of the year she'll have overtaken R.A.Butler who served from 1957 to 1962, since when there have been 21 other home secretaries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Secretary
Quite impressive staying power in what is one of the more treacherous jobs in government.
I wonder how many home secretaries have gone on to become PM in the modern era, compared to the other great offices of state?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rab_Butler
May will be the longest-serving home secretary since Ede if she lasts until next year, and I think I'm right in saying he holds the record for consecutive years in office behind the Duke of Portland under rather different circumstances in the eighteenth century. Certainly he was the longest serving of the twentieth century, ahead of Ede, Morrison, Butler and Joynson-Hicks (whom May has already surpassed, as he didn't quite last five years) although Richard Cross I think holds the overall record for years at the office (1874-80 and 1885-86).