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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What the adulation of Jeremy Corbyn will mean for British politics
We’ve been here before. Last year, many Scots found themselves electrified by the campaign for the Yes vote in the independence referendum. The energy and enthusiasm crackled as many voters for the first time found that they were being asked to vote on something that really mattered to them.
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Dow said to be opening down 700 points or so. Can the Corbyn disease be catching world wide?
Hmmm. I think many of these might be better described as professional politicians, with a tangential acquaintance with economics to support their personal political credo:
http://www.cityam.com/222906/corbyn-backed-anti-austerity-lobby
I reckon they will be goners as the oppo in a decade. UKIP will take some WWC, Conservatives take the Blairite, non muslim BAME and the rest of the working class, and probably a version of Respect to take the muslim vote
Corbyn is a spendthrift economically illiterate isolationist (at best) unilateralist who would happily see the United Kingdom broken up into anything as long as it was not a Kingdom that remained.
So Corbyn will now have to give money to those investors who lost out, since it was over-valued.
Er, right?
The moves seem big but, in comparison to a few reall bear market moves in the past they are quite modest in percentage terms (so far).
"I am unconvinced that the public is automatically hostile to the thrust of Jeremy Corbyn’s economic views."
Always some support for bashing bankers and those, to spare Mr Antifrank's blushes, who are the only people allowed to lie in court without being charged with perjury. Plus any assorted and undeserving rich people.
But his deeply held political convictions ... treachery, lunacy, and trot ideas will soon see him struggling.
Lucky for Labour that it won't happen.
So I'm basically exposed to the whole world market in equal proportion to it's size.
FPT, the results are in.
1) In all LibDem/Cons marginals I moved 50% of the Labour vote to the LibDems
2) In all GB seats I took 30% of the UKIP vote and added it to Labour.
3) Then I recalculated the results.
4) Conservative gains from UKIP = 1 (Clacton)
5) LibDem gains from Conservative = 5 (Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Eastbourne, Lewes, Thornbury & Yate)
6) Labour gains from Conservative = 16 (Bedford, Peterborough, Thurrock, Derby North, Lincoln, Croydon Central, Bolton West, Bury North, Weaver Vale, Brighton Kemptown, Plymouth Moor View, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Telford, Morley & Outwood, Gower, Vale of Clwyd)
7) New seat totals and vote share:
CON…310 (36.9)
LAB…248 (33.6)
LD ..13 (8.3)
UKIP ..0 (8.9)
SNP.. 56 (4.8)
PC..3 (0.6)
Green..1 (3.8)
Others ..19 (3.1) including speaker
Anti-Cons parties (Lab, LD, SNP, PC, Green)
248 + 13 + 56 + 3 + 1 = 321
Are there 100 MPs who'd want to associate themselves with his NewTrot Labour? Be willing to go into print or on the TV to defend it?
Hmm. Career now or bin bag for the future?
http://nottspolitics.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/oulis2006-bzm-0496-0-300x160.jpg
Trotskyism is a tool of the Capitalists!
Then it would be 'game over' for the Nats and petitions to change the name to 'North Britain'......
Paul Mason @paulmasonnews 15m15 minutes ago
Markets slump as world realises main growth engine in hands of incompetent, secretive police state that thinks it can dictate equity prices
Has he been posting under a pseudonym as Tapestry or something similar?
Of course the VLS series in the UK have never had to deal with a down turn as they've only been around for a few years and it's easy to look good in a bull market - so we shall see how their daily rebalancing works in the teeth of a bear market
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Just catching up. D McBride seems to have gone all survivalist this afternoon over the stock market crash. Should I be following his advice and buying water?
Just sayin...'
Where is Chris Mullin when we need him?
Indeed. Plenty of approval for a 'maximum wage' in the Daily Mail today...
Boardroom greed really is hated.
"The Chinese model is nearing its end
The country is now going through a crisis of transition, unparalleled since Deng Xiaoping"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/388bf2ca-475a-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html
(R)evolutionary spirit. Jezza, in all of his forms; Jezza for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Jezza, you mark my words, will not only save the Labour Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34042587
"IDS blames own staff for fake stories" (Was the BBC quick link title, not the long title.)
Pfffffffft.
As if anyone thought he handwrote them himself. FFS. Oh, except The stories were utterly stupid - nobody would say how happy they were to be sanctioned... but the idea it's the Head Man's fault, as if he personally oversaw the episode, is an exercise in social-media-storm-meets-silly-season. And the concept of using illustrative examples, rather than real-life ones, is not exactly a breakthrough in PR.
At this stage, we have no real idea what the policies of a Corbyn-led Labour party would look like. We assume they would be his but he has himself argued for a more inclusive approach to policy-setting so it's entirely possible some of the more radical Corbynisms will be replaced by something more moderate - we'll see. Remember this is 2015, not 2018 and there's no need for detailed policy at this time.
As confidently predicted, the markets are coming off the bottom as the computer-induced selling is seen as overdone and the buyers and bargain-hunters step in. Short of anything too dramatic happening, I reckon the DJIA will be close to even today and both it and the FTSE will rebound sharply tomorrow.
IDS's speech on getting the disabled back into work sounds thoughtful and carries the strong imprint of the Coalition and Steve Webb, whose advice will, I hope, be available to Tim Farron going forward. A really credible contribution on the advantages of getting the disabled into work and the challenges of that approach especially to SMEs.
It's good to see at least one Conservative not desperate to ditch everything the Coalition achieved.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-23/oil-extends-drop-after-falling-below-40-as-iran-to-boost-output
I linked to the story, no Tories criticised IDS or the DWP, several defended it.
Of course, had it been Ed Miliband responsible there would have been a million twitter pastes of criticism, spoofs, and high minded disapproval. One of the clearest cases of partisanship on here I have seen
I dumped my UK and developed world holdings a long while ago when the FTSE was around 6200 and have sat mainly in cash since then. A lucky escape. Tempted to pull the trigger and dive back in although I think the worst is yet to come.
Who have been Labour Leaders of the Opposition but never have been in a real government or a shadow government? Did Corbyn ever stand for the shadow cabinet? Kinnock never made it to a real govt but he was a shadow minister before election as leader. Shadow Minister of Education seems to be a good steppingstone....
It's really not an issue at all, if the damn things had been clearly marked as illustrative (as apparently they were not). Even though they were not, it's not really shocking, as you say.
That said, I think Isam is correct that had Ed M's team done it, there would have been more outrage
Today's crash fault of bankers AND communists.First person to blame it on Chinese Jews gets the Corbyn Parliamentary invite.
Can you summarise it for busy people?
Still enough to bankrupt most oil regimes around the world. The Middle East might last ten or 15 years longer due to reserves, but not beyond that. The stupidity of these people is quite spectacular, given this is exactly what happened in the 1970s, but they barely learnt from that at all.
I think there's a slightly different obstacle in the way of a bigger-tent Labour party, however, which is that Mr Corbyn's followers themselves don't seem to want one. They would apparently eject anyone who doesn't fully share Mr Corbyn's vision.
The massive intra- and multi-national fusion projects (NIF, ITER etc) are going to be good for research, but I'm not convinced that they're going to provide the answer to our energy problems. Instead, it is much more likely to be something like Lockheed Martin's development - smaller. cheaper and more useful.
Imagine that: forty dollar oil for ten years, then massively cheap electricity.
Well, I can dream, can't I?
Nobody really knows.
Corbyn is little different to IDS. Sure the election was less noisy, but it's all the same thing really.
After a couple of years of fun the IDS outriders were farmed off to ConHome or UKIP. IDS made way to a safe pair of unifying hands.
http://tinyurl.com/pknphfk
Of course, had it been Ed Miliband responsible there would have been a million twitter pastes of criticism, spoofs, and high minded disapproval. One of the clearest cases of partisanship on here I have seen
Of course, before making up quotes IDS used to make up stats.
Still, with many in the markets always on the look out for "the next 2008", it's worth noting that this probably isn't it (and if it is, do feel free to tweet this blog post at me continually for the rest of my career).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34040418
Aussie Dollar LOL
Chuka left the field of battle 15th May, long before it looked like Corbyn could get on the ballot, let alone win.
So neither of them made a conscious decision to let Corbyn have a go so they could ride to the rescue in 2018...