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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump continues to dominate the GOP nomination polls
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump continues to dominate the GOP nomination polls
It’s now a week and a half on from the first Republican nominee debate of the 2016 campaign – an event that delivered for Fox News its biggest audience of all time. Normally at this stage in a White House very few people are concerned with the minutiae of nomination battles and TV debate audiences are measured in hundreds of thousands not tens of millions.
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Is this an echo of what we were seeing in the UK with Corbyn. The other candidates are eyeing Trumps voters, expecting Trump to implode at some point, and not wanting to offend his supporters unduly in case they transfer their vote to someone else.
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Bette Midler @BetteMidler 6 hrs6 hours ago
Donald Trump has jury duty tomorrow. Well, that's one angry man - now they just need 11 more.
This article on Labour Uncut just about sums up Corbynism.. and Trumpism as well
"That’s why the critics and doom-mongers are all wrong, because what Corbyn offers, is much more attractive to voters than any carefully costed and credible economic policy.
That’s why we should back him wholeheartedly, when he becomes the leader of the Labour party, because what he offers is so powerful; because hope, and change, is what we all need and yearn for, regardless of our colour, creed, or political leanings."
http://tinyurl.com/noqtod6
Hope is a new religion: forget the facts..
(the same spirit as the 1930s)
And in any subsequent leadership election, any new leader will look like Mussolini relative to Corbyn, and hopefully Labour will find some more inspiring candidates than the current lot (Dan Jarvis perhaps?).
Of course, all that requires the Blairites not to take their ball and go home in the meantime.
I'll be pretty content with ABK (Anyone But Kendall) though, so it's unlikely I'll be too disappointed.
The Sion Simon of 2015
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/we-need-to-change-labour-so-we-can-change-the-country-10457385.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3200315/Songs-Praise-Calais-migrant-camp-NO-songs-DAMIAN-THOMPSON-BBC-stunt-gone-wrong.html
FPT AndyJS: "I think visiting Disneyland is one of those things in life which often exceeds expectations. I expected it to be a glorified funfair but everything is done with such a spirit of enthusiasm and perfection that you can't help be impressed by it."
Yes, exactly. I must be in the 99th percentile of the target audience - I don't like any Disney characters, or cartoons, or mass-marketing, or (much) scary rides. But I still thought it was great - that American enthusiasm and positivity that transcends political differences bubbles up and everything is so well done that one just suspends reservations and enjoys the feeling.
And yes, Rod's probably right that I dodged a bullet on May 7. Life is fun, and I've not felt that for a while.
Mr. Madasafish, quite, you can't trust anyone willing to ignore facts or reason in the face of their ideological zealotry.
Mr. Mohammed, welcome to pb.com.
"Brian Back is a sociology lecturer and Labour campaigner"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11805916/Labour-MPs-are-now-preparing-to-go-underground-to-resist-the-Corbyn-regime.html
It's slightly different from, for example, going long UKIP seats at the GE, but then laying off risk as you change your mind
I went in again at 1.4 for a hundred quid, if I'd backed again (£2) instead of laying at 300s, I'd have doubled my current book profit on him. Every price should be considered on it's merits at the time... 1.4 is probably a still a big price given what we know at the moment.
Your previous bets shouldn't matter if you are looking at betting in the purest sense, the fact you placed a bet on Corbyn at 150-1 previously is irrelevant - it is whether you feel his chance of becoming next Labour leader is greater than 72% NOW that should determine whether you are a layer or backer.
"I'm increasingly warming up to the idea of Corbyn as Labour leader, even if only temporarily. Let him clear out the miserable Labour front bench and give some fresh faces some visibility, let him motivate the base and boost the membership, provide some principled opposition to the government, and he can bow out after a year or two if the polling looks bad."
A friend of mine has the same view.
The big danger for the Tories is that Jezza 'refreshes' the Labour party and drops dead about six months before the GE, ensuring a wave of sympathy for the new leader that sweeps him from 10 points behind to 10 points ahead.
The obituaries are always kind.
It doesn't really mean anything
A true trading bet is one where you think the price is right (or even poor) but where you think it will nevertheless shorten, allowing you to sell it for a profit to a bigger fool.
"creating a fairer society"
"offering a real and compelling alternative vision, of a much fairer, more equal, and happier society""
"His followers now have a deep emotional connection to his campaign, because of their longing and yearning for hope and change; for the fairer, and altogether better society they have always dreamed of, but never thought they could have, until now."
"what Corbyn offers, is much more attractive to voters than any carefully costed and credible economic policy"
So how is this fairer society achieved? By state control of what one does and earns? So there is no incentive for people to work hard, create wealth and retain that wealth?
Were does the money come from for this fairer vision and how is it created?
When I lived under fairer society communist systems - there certainly was no equality except for the luxury lived by those privileged few at the top.
I would not want this lecturer to teach any of my family or friends.
Ben Bradshaw just the latest in the long list of 'non-real' labour.
Labour is eating itself.
Edit; and I See Mandy and Brown are too as well...
And now ive received this vote for yvette video email... Bizarre
http://www.yvetteforlabour.co.uk/campaignvideo
If Labour wants to discourage people who were not happy under TB, GB and EDM, then fine, but they are reducing Labour to a small group of like-minded. But are they like-minded - does one CLP agree with another CLP what anti-Labour means?
Your book/previous bets/trades simply don't matter when assessing the current value in the odds.
Basically, you should only ever cashout when the value shifts over to the other side of the bet.
It's cerainly possible to become a billionaire if you start (through inheritance) as a millionaire. But to get from poverty to millions is almost never done in a mature capitalist economy and when it is done it is almost always more or less criminal.
However, I did also conclude that if Priti was running for the Labour leadership, she would certainly get my first preference. But you probably all knew that anyway.
It can always get worse.
Put it this way - would the tories welcome 500,000 new members who were effectively neo nazis? Nigel Farage can hoover them up.
What use are 500,000 crypto communists to Labour?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11806498/Lord-Mandelsons-failed-mass-resignation-bid-to-attempt-to-stop-Jeremy-Corbyn-winning-Labour-leadership.html
"However, I did also conclude that if Priti was running for the Labour leadership, she would certainly get my first preference. But you probably all knew that anyway."
So at heart, you're just a shallow male?
Edit: Mrs Danczuk for deputy?
Not exactly a bunch of crooks are they? But all started from very smalls sums and come from modest backgrounds.
Regular readers may recall that I always say changing leaders is a very dangerous time for a political party - but I never dreamed it could be this deadly. But then again even I never dreamed that Labour MPs could be this stupid.
Don't worry, I wasn't serious.
It's always a bonus when the pretty ones can do the job. You can put me in the shallow male category.
Did Brown realise when he was making his desperate speech (delivered with an almost Tourette Syndrome jerkiness) he was name checking his own miserable political legacy? I think he might have since he made no attempt to make eye contact with either his local or the TV audience.
Hodges:
"Jeremy Corbyn is poised for victory. Across the Labour party the lights are going out. We may not see them lit again in our lifetime."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amancio_Ortega_Gaona
His dad was a railway worker.
Zara rank well on lists of ethical clothing brands:
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/sustainable-fashion-blog/how-ethical-high-street-clothes
With the nags if you identify a bet as value then bumf it is placed, the race is run and the time period is generally too short for you to make a poor cashout.
With politics (And test cricket !) the time horizons are a bit longer so you can have a think about the correct move at any point in time.
In play football cashouts must be amongst the most profitable for the bookies. The event is long enough that you can reconsider a winning value bet, but not long enough that you get to have a DECENT think about it.
If you eg were willing to wager a tenner and willing to lose it, backing Corbyn at 100/1 then you could lay that now at nearly a grand profit whether Corbyn wins or loses. If you didn't have any bet in this market would you be prepared to enter it now risking a thousand pounds at Corbyn's current odds? If so then let the bet ride, if you wouldn't dream of wagering a grand now at these odds then hedge and take some of your profits.
I am not a kipper, but you would expect the answer to some extent depends on what Cameron does about the EUref. If he tries really hard to sell a pup to the public I can see he wont have many friends amongst the kippers. But your question is fatuous anyway, you made the same comment in effect about EdM, and would about any other Labour leader, it's a call for only two political parties because anyone flirting with a third party might let the bogeyman in. Never mind if you think both parties suck, better vote for one of them in case the other gets in.
Most would have made their first couple of hundred thousand through asset appreciation in property and used that to finance other investments.
Every school teacher will leave (assuming theyve made their annual contributions) with a pension fund not far off equivalent value of £900,000.
A teacher!
Not all by a long-shot but many and given that it happened a few months ago, it seems to me that Corbyn has the potential to be an even more divisive figure than Miliband/Salmond.
He must be pulling his hair out now.
A school buddy started doing small DIY jobs at weekends for pocket money..Now owns a massive DIY chain of shops in the north West
A publisher.. saw a niche in the financial publishing world after college Died before his parents of cancer ..Multi millionaire...no inheritance money
Two are successful film Directors..both from working class families..
A Partner in a major London based Law company...working class Irish family background..worked his way up he ladder..by being very clever at his job.
One owned a sound and film production company... working class.. died prematurely.. no inheritance there.
One started a small film developing company bought out by one of the big boys..for millions... working class family..
There are several more but I think you will find that none of them were crooks, robbed anyone, dealt in drugs, cheated or were criminal in any way... they may have collected a few speeding tickets along the way.. but hey.
.
Modern day slavery seems universally horrendous, whether it's people held on farms/by gypsies/in domestic servitude in the UK or the industrial scale depravity of ISIS.
I think the definition of the trading bet is one that is not intended as value for the contest itself, but rather that it's expected to shorten as the contest date approaches. I didn't think Corbyn had a chance of winning, but thought he might be 20/1 at some point.
I think he did vote Conservative in Luton South.
Test cricket has been very profitable this summer, but one has to commit to watching as much of it as possible live. I'll be at hopefully two of the upcoming England v Pakistan series in UAE, will try and get some tips from the ground for the PB cricket punters.
Bets in the final Ashes Test will be £60 instead of £50, in honour of the Aus 1st innings score last time out!!
But it's not as if they'd go the extra mile or demonstrate initiative to get that much lauded promotion.
Given his negotiating tactics and strategy, he might be right. That doesn't mean we should vote for it.