You can see how Hillary Clinton’s issue with her private emails turns very messy and denies her the nomination, Joe Biden’s age is becoming a barrier to him getting the nomination, so much so, that’s he reportedly considering standing for only one term to calm those concerns about his age.
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If the Democratic Party does break down and squabble, my guess is the membership will go for somebody totally unexpected. Unhelpfully, I'm afraid I have no ideas to suggest as to who it might be.
If Al Gore didn't have the guts to run in 2004 or 2008 he won't run for anything else ever again.
For comparisons, Nixon had a gap of only 6 years between his gubernational race in 1962 and him running again as the savior of America from the madness of the 60's in 1968.
Al Gore hasn't run for anything for 16 years, no person under the age of 30 remembers him and those who do have vague memories now.
I'm still in shock over Gordon's speech. I've seen bad ones - but that was a shocker.
None of the three are comforting parallels though. Two lost twice - Dewey throwing away a campaign that if we're honest, he should probably have won on the second occasion - and Nixon, well, he won, but...
I expect Bernie Sanders to follow through and win primaries, possibly even with Clinton in the race but almost certainly so if she withdraws. In the latter case, a lot will depend on how many others decide to run. I reckon Bernie has quite a high baseline that he won't drop below, while undecided will split across however many other candidates run.
I'm still in shock over Gordon's speech. I've seen bad ones - but that was a shocker.
It didn't help that he only used historical quotes from people who have died long ago as the backbone of his speech.
Nor of course the wild pace up and down or the background that looked like he was part of a carnival, it gave a feeling of "See the amazing Gordo, the man who speaks like a newspaper".
At this rate, Labour will be phoning Jeremy Kyle for help.
I've always taken the view (sorry @malcolmg!) that Hilary's age is probably a bigger stumbling-block to her chances than her gaffes and emails. Biden and Kerry I'm ruling right out for the same reason. I think Gore would have the same handicap, and wouldn't have Hilary's novelty value to compensate.
Surely if the Democrats get that desperate they can draft one of the Obama cabinet to at least put up a fight? Jack Lew perhaps - he'd be the next most senior after Biden and Kerry I think.
Please can someone put this to the Benny Hill music....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Thurel
There was also an English soldier who fought in the Civil War and was still fighting as a mercenary 70 years later when he was 89 years old, but I'm afraid I've forgotten his name!
However, the Americans are not electing a soldier (nor are the Labour party)...
EDIT: Ah-ha, found him - William Hiseland, his name was. Died aged 112.
I thought EdM was dire from the get-go, this is video-nasty territory with Corbyn. It's very funny, but OMG!!!! at the same time.
FWIW- I thought Hilary appeared completed deflated and defeatist yesterday. I think she's tried and she may well step aside if things continue as is. Another 18 months of this?
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/08/as-cameron-rules-it-out-a-bare-majority-of-party-members-say-that-he-should-fight-the-2020-election-as-tory-leader.html
@TSE, we are fortunate indeed that Al-Qaeda were not better organised.
And with that, I am off to sample the delights of a roast dinner. Hope everyone has a great evening.
Like most other mainstream Conservative web communities like ConHome or Guido, PB coalesced during the Brown ministry and the personal contempt of him justified unity under the not-very-different policies of David Cameron. On the day of his Scotland speech you would almost have thought he had lost it for No, but I think there was more chat about the RAF or trains because obviously nobody listens to the hated Loonie McBroon.
The Tories are going to face the same problem with Gorgeous George Osborne- someone with intelligence and cunning but more unlikeable, unappealing and creepier than Gordon (if that is possible)
Although I had got on at ~1.33 I have topped up: the possibility that Clinton actually withdraws is on the cards. Mostly I was expecting to have a fight on her hands, maybe evens.
Also Dan Jarvis 4 Stella.
A genuinely nauseating performance.
You should be thinking of what effect his intervention will have on Labour supporters.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/33673952
Rather than casting aspersions - watch Brown's efforts then tell us what you think of it.
Worry not, Mr Tyson, they won't be sentient when he's finished eating them.
I can't stop. Football and politics- they should just merge them together. Life would be easier.
Paging Neil Kinnock.....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
The difficulty in reading these GOP polls is the absence of a clear alternative to Trump. That won't last indefinitely - someone will separate from the pack of people struggling to get into double figures and will probably mop up a lot of anti-Trump voting. But it might take a primary or two to make it clear.
Meanwhile, a big jump for Sanders halves Clinton's lead, though still a lot of ground to make up. Biden going nowhere at the moment.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
I voted Labour in May!
If Bernie became POTUS (and that's a big if mind you, probably bigger than "Jez we can becoming PM") I wonder if Larry would still turn up for meetings about local residents mental health services.
Meanwhile the establishment 4 (or anti-Trump candidates) are at 4th, 6th and joint 8th place with a total of 26%.
You see, it's the opposite of 2012, back then the establishment vote (26%) was united behind Romney, with the anti Romney vote split in 7 different directions, now the establishment is split in 4-5 different candidates while the anti-establishment is mostly united behind one of 3.
There should be some prosecutions over this.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/People/article1594307.ece?CMP=Spklr-_-Editorial-_-FBPAGE-_-TheTimesandTheSundayTimes-timesandsundaytimes-_-20150816-_-News-_-222937462&linkId=16337351
"DIANA, Princess of Wales was pursued after the break-up of her marriage by Donald Trump, the billionaire now seeking the US presidency, according to Selina Scott, the broadcaster.
“He bombarded Diana at Kensington Palace with massive bouquets of flowers, each worth hundreds of pounds,” Scott reveals today.
“Trump clearly saw Diana as the ultimate trophy wife,” she writes in News Review.
“As the roses and orchids piled up at her apartment she became increasingly concerned about what she should do. It had begun to feel as if Trump was stalking her.”
Scott says Diana confided in her over dinner. “‘What am I going to do?’ she asked. ‘He gives me the creeps.’ ‘Just throw them in the bin,’ I advised. Diana laughed.”
Imagine if she married Trump, and Trump actually won the presidency the First Lady of America would have been the ex-wife of the future King of the UK and mother to other future Kings.
That would be something on state visits.
Just think of the introductions "William I like you to meet your new dad".
Surely you must appreciate him for at least that!
Sunil: "Got any Quorn?"
TSE: "If you want!" (He also takes a bottle of meat from the fridge).
Sunil: "Meat...? Ugh!"
TSE: "It's what Ian Rush drinks."
Sunil: "Ian Rush?"
TSE: "Yeah, an' he says if I don't drink lots of meat, when I grow up I'm only gonna be good enough to play for Accrington Stanley!"
Sunil: "Accrington Stanley? Who are they?"
TSE: "Exactly!"
George Wallace wanted the Colonel as his Veep in 1968...
Brown doesn't have a record on economic credibility since the crash.
In fact Labour as a whole doesn't have that since the crash.
As we all know, only losers come from Carthage.
**Carthage, Tennessee
What are they thinking of? It's as if they've forgotten Twitter can be seen by everyone.
i) Leg prepared by making incisions, filled with slithers of garlic and sprigs of rosemary, optionally coated in a jam of some kind and then roasted.
ii) Whole leg of lamb deboned and buterfly cut. Seasoned with lemon and cumin with a few other spices, cooked for twenty five minutes in oven then thrown onto the BBQ.
Amazing...
Get's me thinking of Elvis and Colonel Tom Parker.
Of course, if the Scottish people decide democratically that they want independence then it must be respected, sad though it would make me, as an old unionist.
If I could make three groups of people "mend their ways" and abandon their particular passion, it would be:
1) ISIS supporters,
2) Scottish Nationalists,
3) Arsenal supporters.
He was the Army's equivalent of Brown
GB today appeared to be in denial about 2010.