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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How do you solve a problem like Jeremy?
If as expected Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader, then those inside the Labour party looking to depose Corbyn as leader before the next general election might want to have a word with the Barrow & Furness MP, John Woodcock, who also is Liz Kendall’s campaign manager and remind him of his pre-election pledge.
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A solution I fear there is nun.
If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.
More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!
The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
(Albeit, only a light snack!)
If Corbyn is Labour leader many Labour MPs joining the LDs will be safe enough in their own seats - especially if they quickly outnumber current LD MPs.
After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
It still seems unlikely to me in the very short term. In a year or so's time, who knows?
(Yes, obviously I am lampooning the idiotic 'labour voters = public opinion' meme)
Right coppers kettled, their skulls we're splittin'
IRA parcel bombs tied up with strings
These are a few of my favourite things
Red Labour MP's, all UNITE poodles
Taxing the rich for oodles and oodles
Sad Royal Princes who'll never be kings
These are a few of my favourite things....
Got to consider the other side of the coin.
Say he resigns, and Labour wins the seat. Corbyn starts off with a triumph in a tricky seat.
Edited extra bit: in more important news, episode 8 of Zodiac Eclipse is now up:
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-angels-or-demons/
There's a grassroots culture that does not exist eg in Labour.
As I hinted, I think TSE is teasing. It's in the name. Woodcock won't try a Hail Mary pass after 3 minutes of the game.
Went to see Mac and Mabel at Chichester Festival Theatre last night It was outstandingly good. So musicals it is for me.. I saw Damsels in distress two months ago, equally good.
As for Corbyn you solve the problem by not voting for him.
I see the Tories are at 40 and Labour 29 with Comres.. It might be 25 if Corbyn gets elected or possibly 23.
Was the last ICM COn 40, Lab 31?
VOILA 15/8/15 is newspaper date so fieldwork must be pretty current
http://comres.co.uk/polls/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-august-poll/
Like Carswell, but much more interesting. With the margin so small between the two Parties there - I could see myself voting for a floor crosser to save local jobs.
That scans rather well!
I certainly wouldn't bet against it. And in return for safe Tory seat too?
http://comres.co.uk/polls/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-august-poll/
Also every measure of polling is worse for Labour under Corbyn, except one: people think the railways will get better - by 1%
The worry for Corbyn and Labour would surely be how many heads outside Barrow would be nodding in firm agreement with him. This campaign has shown Labour's nastier side in the most unflattering light imaginable. It's no wonder they're dipping in the polls even before electing Corbyn.
Who knows, he might pocket his left-wing support, pivot elegantly to the centre and turn out to be an election winner...
It's a fairly worrying trend though that those who vote are those who will be dying off soon. What might the implications be for our democratic system if turnout dips below 50% in a general election in 10-15 years?
I think you underestimate how far apart the MPs and the Labour supporters are. They're not going to kiss and make up in the near future. The Labour Party is going to remain a mess for quite a while. If the MPs seek to take back their party, there will be twitter riots. If the MPs remain marginalised, the devil will make work for those idle hands.
Perhaps the toxicity of the left wing label has been greatly exaggerated. If so it may well be that Corbyn is the winning formula not the problem.
The wishful thinking/excuse making about Corbyn's views/judgement is staggering me. We had them them in spades over EdM - and saying people would grow to like his nerdy, weird, unphotogenic, nasal, intellectual, jargon ridden manner... yeah right.
Jeremy may *talk-human* - the bigger problem is what he's saying.
Rent controls are hardly the answer - apart from anything else, if there are rent controls for students, landlords will simply not let to students.
One answer might be much heavier penalties for those who vandalise rented properties, and easier ways for landlords to claim redress - because that is what is pushing the cost up. I think it would shock many on here to find out some of the things students do to the flats they live in - tearing off doors and setting fire to them is an extreme example, but graffiti on the walls and the theft of fitments is nothing terribly unusual. Plus, they usually have to be professionally cleaned on vacation because they have not been kept clean by the tenants, and there usually need to be massive renewals of fitments that have been broken (generally while drunk) and not reported. Carpets often need replacing too.
But that of course would require the NUS to actually do something constructive, which would require effort. Much easier to carp from the sidelines.
I refused to have an NUS card after my first year (when tuition fees were tripled with their connivance). I would like to see this ridiculous last relic of the closed shop made optional, because it is absurd that all students are obliged to be associated with these imbeciles whether they want to or not.
It'd be interesting to see how their majorities map against their views too. I suspect most are in rock solid safe seats and can say whatever they like.
HOHOHO !
Turnout seems to me to be dropping steadily, and I think it's those groups that never got into the habit of voting that are ageing and pushing through declining turnout in those age groups. Those over 65 will have grown up in the 60s, when voter engagement was still high. But you look through it later on, and you will see that with every succeeding decile group turnout has been a little less - and it does increase with age, but not by enough to compensate.
The current very low levels among those of my age and younger is therefore a big worry to me.
On topic, surely the current govt will ensure that the boats are under construction before the 2020 election, especially if Corbyn takes Labour off in a peacenik direction?
There must surely be a couple of Labour MPs completely disillusioned with what's going on in their party right now? Whips and chairmen of the other parties will surely be working overtime between the new leader announcement and conference season to get someone to defect. An MP like Woodcock would be a gift to the Tories, with a by-election about Trident renewal being pretty much a certain win for the blues in the face of Labour's objections.
This isn't the choice sensible Labour people would have made, but if life gives you lemons...
For too long, many people have considered the Labour party was just Red Tory lite, and really not worth voting for.
With Corbyn, there is now a potential leader who is seen to be honest, sincere and actually cares.
I agree that there are a lot of Labour MP's who will disagree with him, but should they leave Labour and join the LibDems or form a new party, then they will confirm the electorates view of them as carpet baggers. (Most Labour supporters detest the LibDems, if a Labour MP crosses to them they will ousted at the next election. Crossing to the Tories, believe it or not is slightly more acceptable)
Corbyn's potential victory actually puts a question mark against the Tory front bench which they will find very difficult to answer. And, when you think about it, he is old enough, knows enough and doesn't give a damn about them.
I think these Armageddon scenarios are little more than Tory fantasies. When Corbyn wins there will be no immediate rebellions. At worst people he would not give a job to will not stand for the shadow cabinet and will retreat to the back benches. The consensus in the PLP is that the man is a buffoon who, given enough rope, will hang himself. So hand out the rope and wait.
Once it has become clear that the man cannot cope with even a semi aggressive interview, when Cameron makes him look stupid, when he really struggles to put together a credible shadow cabinet and when Labour suffers defeats in the Locals and toy town Parliamentary elections the views of the party membership might change. Then the MPs who are appalled by this turn of events can act in the name of that membership and put pressure on him to stand down. But it needs time, if only to respect the views of the membership.
It'll be like your favourite TV being unexpectedly cancelled!
A bombs and H bombs and nuclear explosions,
Tactical weapons and subs in the oceans,
Radiation poisoning and stumps in a sling,
These are a few of my favourite things...
Gove making noises about decriminalising the License Fee this morning is a good candidate, treating it the same as any other utility bill would be popular and would kick off a year of the Beeb talking about themselves rather than being the opposition to the government in the lead up to Charter renewal.
It would also be great to see the Govt look at the 'too-difficult list', especially if the PM is going to stand down before the election. Serious planning reform would be a good start, NIMBYism is massively holding the country back at the moment, and like the Trident boats the new LHR runway needs to have spades in the ground yesterday. Hopefully the decision to bring fracking decisions in-house to Westminster represents a start along this difficult and politically-unpopular road.
Also fantastic to hear the PM give Chilcot a public dressing-down about his missing report. That it's still not published is taking the piss now.
Moreover, that leaves all the goodies for the run-up to the next election - things like free puppies (if they want to match Labour's owls offer).
Perhaps he has in mind that having Chilcott to deal with would be a major issue for a Corbyn led Labour party. Corbyn is on record that Blair should face charges for his lies. If he responds to the report by suggesting that Blair should be referred to the Hague (which he might well) any remaining Blairites will face some very difficult choices.
It won't be a big % - but when added to the new full members that've already joined, it could be enough to tip the balance significantly.
Occasionally a good idea comes from the most unexpected of sources. Most of us probably agree that more people with experience of life entering politics would be a good thing.
Nobody's taking about Andy Burnham, Lizzie Kendall, Yvette Cooper, Tony Tony Blair
It does seem like the perfect excuse to get Labour fighting with itself.
What the centre and right of the party need to avoid doing is looking like they're the cause of the strategy failing, in the event that it does. And that means they need to go easy on the plotting and the dicking around.
"Charity's fine
subscribe to mine"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11804367/david-cameron-tory-ideas-can-secure-britain.html
> http://t.co/edToAuzMlj
If some MPs want to show that JC is unpopular, they need to give it some time to demonstrate itself without giving an excuse to blame it on them. However, most MPs want to win - they won't be actively hoping for a disaster, though they may fear that it could happen.
They're getting their dicks in a row so to speak.
Did you know that the song Oliver [Mark Lester] sang was actually dubbed over by the daughter of musical director? It was done in one take an hour or two after her dad cringed at Mark's version.
Fagin of course - also had an owl... http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0063385/trivia
Reform of the Third Sector to follow reform of the Unions in the autumn?
I'm really looking forward to the first PMQ's. Lots of scope for Cameron to make mischief!
"May I congratulate the Leader of the Opposition on his election success. It must be the first time that the roles of both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition have been decided upon by members of the Conservative Party..... And, I suspect, the last....
Mr. Sandpit, if a charity is dependent for its existence on public money, it's effectively in the public sector.