Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a Corbyn victory then it might make referendum

13

Comments

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited August 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Yorkcity said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:


    ...

    Right now I'm a Yes [to the EU], but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    Crumbs, Mr. Observer. You don't want a Conservative Government in case it upsets the Scots. You don't want us to leave the EU in case it upsets the Scots. You seem to be thinking that keeping the UK together is the ultimate aim and appeasing the SNP is the only way that it can be achieved. Maybe you might want to think about what it is about the UK that makes it worth preserving.
    You're misunderstanding Mr Observer's affection for the union.

    It's the mechanism that allows him to vote Labour, regardless of their policies, because anything else represents an existential threat to the Union that he holds so dear.
    Lol - post of the day and so true.
    Southam Observer is or was a Lib Dem.
    For the last few Elections he never mentioned he was Labour.
    He's moved between Lib Dem and Labour depending on who has the best chance of beating the Tories. Because they want to abolish the welfare state, apparently.

    At the last election he agonised for ages before finally deciding the vote Labour to save the Union

    No Chas, I voted Labour because in my constituency they were best placed to beat your team.

    Not sure why uou're making things up, but please feel free to carry on if it makes you feel better.

    Two replies. Must have touched a nerve.

    The reason you gave for voting Labour was because a Tory government would mean the end of the Union.

    No, it wasn't. I wanted the Tories to lose. Though a Labour victory would have been good for the Union. The Tories are clearly not interested in preserving it and it will be gone soon enough. You will shrug your shoulders, I will be devastated. Such is life.

    Excuse me, Scottish Tories voted over 90% for the Union, had Scottish Labour got anyway near that level of support for the Union from their voters Yes would have been trounced

    Not sure the Scottish Tories have much influence in the UK party. But, yes, hundreds of thousands of Scottish Tories will also be devastated when the Union comes to an end. It looks like most of their English colleagues will be less vexed.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited August 2015

    SeanT said:

    Are Labour REALLY going to elect a man who

    1, will obviously shatter the party, exiling the best talents
    2. will give Tories years of ammunition about Labour consorting with terrorists, anti-Semites, racists, homophobes
    and now
    3. Is a PROVEN disaster in the polls ALREADY

    Really? Could any political party make such a terrible error?

    If they do, it would constitute the greatest act of self harm, on a party level, in modern British political history.

    Do you really believe what the opinion polls say after the events in May?
    How much of their reputation is riding on this? Not a lot.

    How easy is it for the motivated to manipulate the outcome of the leadership election?

    The motivated are poll manipulators, but the GE minimises their influence by removing self selection. The Labour Party are mirroring the daft, web based, self selection polling with their £3 a say entry.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Are Labour REALLY going to elect a man who

    1, will obviously shatter the party, exiling the best talents
    2. will give Tories years of ammunition about Labour consorting with terrorists, anti-Semites, racists, homophobes
    and now
    3. Is a PROVEN disaster in the polls ALREADY

    Really? Could any political party make such a terrible error?

    If they do, it would constitute the greatest act of self harm, on a party level, in modern British political history.

    Do you really believe what the opinion polls say after the events in May?
    Yes. Because the polls are in consort with the anecdata and the mood. There is clearly a surge for Corbyn, you can see it and feel it. In the GE there was just a strange fogginess, it was hard to discern any mood at all, hence the pollsters hedging and herding, in bewilderment.

    Also the polls are emphatic, not tentative. Corbyn has an enormous lead entirely outwith the margin of error.

    Is he certain to win? No. Is he odds on favourite tonight? Yes, just. Be interesting to see if this ComRes poll shifts things.

    No the Labour party is too busy pleasuring itself to notice what the wider world is saying.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited August 2015
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Are Labour REALLY going to elect a man who

    1, will obviously shatter the party, exiling the best talents
    2. will give Tories years of ammunition about Labour consorting with terrorists, anti-Semites, racists, homophobes
    and now
    3. Is a PROVEN disaster in the polls ALREADY

    Really? Could any political party make such a terrible error?

    If they do, it would constitute the greatest act of self harm, on a party level, in modern British political history.

    Do you really believe what the opinion polls say after the events in May?
    Yes. Because the polls are in consort with the anecdata and the mood. There is clearly a surge for Corbyn, you can see it and feel it. In the GE there was just a strange fogginess, it was hard to discern any mood at all, hence the pollsters hedging and herding, in bewilderment.

    Also the polls are emphatic, not tentative. Corbyn has an enormous lead entirely outwith the margin of error.

    Is he certain to win? No. Is he odds on favourite tonight? Yes, just. Be interesting to see if this ComRes poll shifts things.
    There has been no non-internet based polling of the Labour leadership election. There may be a whole tranche of the selectorate that simply aren't being picked up at all. Most non-corbyn supporters still can't believe Labour could be that stupid. It may, just, be that they are not...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Yorkcity said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:


    ...

    Right nog.

    You're misunderstanding Mr Observer's affection for the union.

    It's the mechanism that allows him to vote Labour, regardless of their policies, because anything else represents an existential threat to the Union that he holds so dear.
    Lol - post of the day and so true.
    Southam Observer is or was a Lib Dem.
    For the last few Elections he never mentioned he was Labour.
    He's moved between Lib Dem and Labour depending on who has the best chance of beating the Tories. Because they want to abolish the welfare state, apparently.

    At the last election he agonised for ages before finally deciding the vote Labour to save the Union

    No Chas, I voted Labour because in my constituency they were best placed to beat your team.

    Not sure why uou're making things up, but please feel free to carry on if it makes you feel better.

    Two replies. Must have touched a nerve.

    The reason you gave for voting Labour was because a Tory government would mean the end of the Union.

    No, it wasn't. I wanted the Tories to lose. Though a Labour victory would have been good for the Union. The Tories are clearly not interested in preserving it and it will be gone soon enough. You will shrug your shoulders, I will be devastated. Such is life.

    Excuse me, Scottish Tories voted over 90% for the Union, had Scottish Labour got anyway near that level of support for the Union from their voters Yes would have been trounced

    Not sure the Scottish Tories have much influence in the UK party. But, yes, hundreds if thousands if Scottish Tories will also be devastated when the Union comes to an end. It looks like most of their English colleagues will be less vexed.

    I don't know about Tories specifically, but that fewer and fewer people will appear to be devastated should the Union end even in the largest constituent part of the Union, is likely a major factor it why it will end - not enough people care enough to counter the existential threat. A real shame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Yorkcity said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:


    ...

    Right now I'm a Yes [to the EU], but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    Crumbs, Mr. Observer. .
    You're misunderstanding Mr Observer's affection for the union.

    It's the mechanism that allows him to vote Labour, regardless of their policies, because anything else represents an existential threat to the Union that he holds so dear.
    Lol - post of the day and so true.
    Southam Observer is or was a Lib Dem.
    For the last few Elections he never mentioned he was Labour.
    He's moved between Lib Dem and Labour depending on who has the best chance of beating the Tories. Because they want to abolish the welfare state, apparently.

    At the last election he agonised for ages before finally deciding the vote Labour to save the Union

    No Chas, I voted Labour because in my constituency they were best placed to beat your team.

    Not sure why uou're making things up, but please feel free to carry on if it makes you feel better.

    Two replies. Must have touched a nerve.

    The reason you gave for voting Labour was because a Tory government would mean the end of the Union.

    No, it wasn't. I wanted the Tories to lose. Though a Labour victory would have been good for the Union. The Tories are clearly not interested in preserving it and it will be gone soon enough. You will shrug your shoulders, I will be devastated. Such is life.

    Excuse me, Scottish Tories voted over 90% for the Union, had Scottish Labour got anyway near that level of support for the Union from their voters Yes would have been trounced

    Not sure the Scottish Tories have much influence in the UK party. But, yes, hundreds if thousands if Scottish Tories will also be devastated when the Union comes to an end. It looks like most of their English colleagues will be less vexed.

    I don't think so, the Tories are the Conservative and Unionist Party after all and Cameron it was quite clear was passionately pro Union. There are a few rightwingers who would prefer to get rid of Scotland and ensure the remainder of the UK is dominated by England, and more rightwing, but they are a minority, most Tories polled put country before party
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2015
    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:

    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This is a special analysis for HYUFD, he likes US demographics and stuff for elections there.

    Looking at the Comres poll, the other post election polls and the exit poll, it seems that the year of birth strongly affects voting intention and the reaction to policies and events like in 2 separate worlds, with the schism year being 1970.

    If I apply the usual mechanics of US elections where most predict elections with demographics, on the UK and looking at the Comres poll.
    If the death rate is maintained at 600 thousand per year then the Tories would lose 650 thousands of their voters, and if the turnout among the 3.5 million extra people who will gain the right the right to vote is the same as this years then Labour would gain 600 thousand votes.
    The Tories would win the 2020 election but much closer than in 2015, and in 2025 it would be a landslide Labour victory on a 1997 scale, assuming again that the generational schism is maintained.

    This reminds of some of the talk in the mid to late 1990's were they said that the Tory vote simply died off.

    That suggests there is no drift in opinions through age.

    I do not think it particularly significant but it is surely a contributing factor
    I haven't seen it though, that left wing wave is there since the 2005 GE and it only moves up the age cohort.

    Look at this old ICM poll from 5 years ago, you can see the left wing wave at ages under 35 back then.
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2010_dec_guardian_poll_short.pdf

    And an even older ICM poll from 10 years ago, the left wing wave at ages under 25:
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2005_june_guardian_june_poll.pdf

    Now the left wing wave has reached the age cohort of 40-44.
    Listen: my wife campaigned for her local MP in 87. He was J Corbyn. Whilst not loving the idea, and in full recognition of the irony, she now thinks G Osborne of 11 Downing St would more fit her views.
    Well she was born before 1970, everyone before that year votes Tory according to all the polls so no surprise there.
    Dream on if you think age doesn't change views. If that were the case Honda would've stopped selling cars years ago in this country. Not all views of course but the shift is always there.
    Believe me, I have never seen that thing in all the countries I have gone, in fact as people age they tend to be stubborn with their views not change them.
    My experience has taught me that people are shaped early on and it takes more and more effort to change them as they age.

    Or as they say "you can't teach an old dog new tricks" .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jack Corscadden @Jack_Corscadden
    liz kendall is the antichrist

    Liz Kendall ‏@leicesterliz 22 hrs22 hours ago
    Thanks so much

    Forget winning over Tories, with an attitude like that the Corbynistas are going to struggle to retain centre-left Labour supporters.

    But they are 'Tories' anyway!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008

    Mr. HYUFD, well, quite, but I do wonder if he's simply attempting to address one weakness whilst presenting a far larger one.

    Anyway, I'm off for the night.

    Indeed, but his candidacy would be interesting anyway
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Speedy said:

    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:

    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This is a special analysis for HYUFD, he likes US demographics and stuff for elections there.

    Looking at the Comres poll, the other post election polls and the exit poll, it seems that the year of birth strongly affects voting intention and the reaction to policies and events like in 2 separate worlds, with the schism year being 1970.

    If I apply the usual mechanics of US elections where most predict elections with demographics, on the UK and looking at the Comres poll.
    If the death rate is maintained at 600 thousand per year then the Tories would lose 650 thousands of their voters, and if the turnout among the 3.5 million extra people who will gain the right the right to vote is the same as this years then Labour would gain 600 thousand votes.
    The Tories would win the 2020 election but much closer than in 2015, and in 2025 it would be a landslide Labour victory on a 1997 scale, assuming again that the generational schism is maintained.

    This reminds of some of the talk in the mid to late 1990's were they said that the Tory vote simply died off.

    That suggests there is no drift in opinions through age.

    I do not think it particularly significant but it is surely a contributing factor
    I haven't seen it though, that left wing wave is there since the 2005 GE and it only moves up the age cohort.

    Look at this old ICM poll from 5 years ago, you can see the left wing wave at ages under 35 back then.
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2010_dec_guardian_poll_short.pdf

    And an even older ICM poll from 10 years ago, the left wing wave at ages under 25:
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2005_june_guardian_june_poll.pdf

    Now the left wing wave has reached the age cohort of 40-44.
    Listen: my wife campaigned for her local MP in 87. He was J Corbyn. Whilst not loving the idea, and in full recognition of the irony, she now thinks G Osborne of 11 Downing St would more fit her views.
    Well she was born before 1970, everyone before that year votes Tory according to all the polls so no surprise there.
    Dream on if you think age doesn't change views. If that were the case Honda would've stopped selling cars years ago in this country. Not all views of course but the shift is always there.
    Believe me, I have never seen that thing in all the countries I have gone, in fact as people age they tend to be stubborn with their views not change them.
    My experience has taught me that people are shaped early on and it takes more and more effort to change them as they age.

    Or as they say "you can't teach an old dog new tricks" .
    Fair enough. We have to agree disagree.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:

    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:



    That suggests there is no drift in opinions through age.

    I do not think it particularly significant but it is surely a contributing factor

    I haven't seen it though, that left wing wave is there since the 2005 GE and it only moves up the age cohort.

    Look at this old ICM poll from 5 years ago, you can see the left wing wave at ages under 35 back then.
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2010_dec_guardian_poll_short.pdf

    And an even older ICM poll from 10 years ago, the left wing wave at ages under 25:
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2005_june_guardian_june_poll.pdf

    Now the left wing wave has reached the age cohort of 40-44.
    Listen: my wife campaigned for her local MP in 87. He was J Corbyn. Whilst not loving the idea, and in full recognition of the irony, she now thinks G Osborne of 11 Downing St would more fit her views.
    Well she was born before 1970, everyone before that year votes Tory according to all the polls so no surprise there.
    Dream on if you think age doesn't change views. If that were the case Honda would've stopped selling cars years ago in this country. Not all views of course but the shift is always there.
    In general people's political views change with age. It is the reason why the Conservatives do well out of an ageing population, rather than their ageing voters constantly dying off. However occasionally there are significant political events that cause certain age-groups to resist this change. Their lives are so profoundly affected that they take much longer to forgive, if at all, the party that was in charge at the time. Once such group was the mid 30s age group hit massively by negative equity in the early nineties which turned away from the Conservatives for a generation.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Oooh ! I get a vote in the deputy leadership election too.

    Should I go for Stella or the nonce-finder general ^_~
  • HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jack Corscadden @Jack_Corscadden
    liz kendall is the antichrist

    Liz Kendall ‏@leicesterliz 22 hrs22 hours ago
    Thanks so much

    Forget winning over Tories, with an attitude like that the Corbynistas are going to struggle to retain centre-left Labour supporters.

    But they are 'Tories' anyway!

    Yep, it's pretty clear Corbyn Labour won't want my vote. Only the ideologically pure are allowed.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: More Corbyn smears from Tory scandal sheet The Independent On Sunday. "Voters believe he is least likely candidate to win general election".

    @DPJHodges: This is precisely the sort of attack Corbyn's camp were warning of. Asking actual voters what they think. Gutter journalism...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    alex. said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Are Labour REALLY going to elect a man who

    1, will obviously shatter the party, exiling the best talents
    2. will give Tories years of ammunition about Labour consorting with terrorists, anti-Semites, racists, homophobes
    and now
    3. Is a PROVEN disaster in the polls ALREADY

    Really? Could any political party make such a terrible error?

    If they do, it would constitute the greatest act of self harm, on a party level, in modern British political history.

    Do you really believe what the opinion polls say after the events in May?
    Yes. Because the polls are in consort with the anecdata and the mood. There is clearly a surge for Corbyn, you can see it and feel it. In the GE there was just a strange fogginess, it was hard to discern any mood at all, hence the pollsters hedging and herding, in bewilderment.

    Also the polls are emphatic, not tentative. Corbyn has an enormous lead entirely outwith the margin of error.

    Is he certain to win? No. Is he odds on favourite tonight? Yes, just. Be interesting to see if this ComRes poll shifts things.
    There has been no non-internet based polling of the Labour leadership election. There may be a whole tranche of the selectorate that simply aren't being picked up at all. Most non-corbyn supporters still can't believe Labour could be that stupid. It may, just, be that they are not...

    The electoral system facilitates the possibility of an orchestrated coup. It's madness.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
    A Trump-Carson ticket won't be bad it would help him balance with evangelicals who don't like Trump, though might cost him votes from social liberals as Carson is very extreme on abortion.
    Anyway Trump is a media man and he will make his decision based on who can get most ratings.

    Goodnight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    I'll say one thing, Labour has dodged a bullet with the AV referendum. Getting 50% of the electorate in alot of constituencies will be far far tougher for a Corbyn lead Labour than winning say seats 200-225 under FPTP.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    alex. said:

    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:

    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:



    That suggests there is no drift in opinions through age.

    I do not think it particularly significant but it is surely a contributing factor

    I haven't seen it though, that left wing wave is there since the 2005 GE and it only moves up the age cohort.

    Look at this old ICM poll from 5 years ago, you can see the left wing wave at ages under 35 back then.
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2010_dec_guardian_poll_short.pdf

    And an even older ICM poll from 10 years ago, the left wing wave at ages under 25:
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2005_june_guardian_june_poll.pdf

    Now the left wing wave has reached the age cohort of 40-44.
    Listen: my wife campaigned for her local MP in 87. He was J Corbyn. Whilst not loving the idea, and in full recognition of the irony, she now thinks G Osborne of 11 Downing St would more fit her views.
    Well she was born before 1970, everyone before that year votes Tory according to all the polls so no surprise there.
    Dream on if you think age doesn't change views. If that were the case Honda would've stopped selling cars years ago in this country. Not all views of course but the shift is always there.
    In general people's political views change with age. It is the reason why the Conservatives do well out of an ageing population, rather than their ageing voters constantly dying off. However occasionally there are significant political events that cause certain age-groups to resist this change. Their lives are so profoundly affected that they take much longer to forgive, if at all, the party that was in charge at the time. Once such group was the mid 30s age group hit massively by negative equity in the early nineties which turned away from the Conservatives for a generation.

    Yes that's about right, I'm sure. Doubtless Iraq has had a similar effect too. Certain individuals will go the other way (my grandad made Corbyn look like Bill Cash by the end!) but the general trend all other things being equal is clear though.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: More Corbyn smears from Tory scandal sheet The Independent On Sunday. "Voters believe he is least likely candidate to win general election".

    @DPJHodges: This is precisely the sort of attack Corbyn's camp were warning of. Asking actual voters what they think. Gutter journalism...

    Gee, what a shock. It's not like the media have been telling the public like that incessantly or anything...
  • No Kezia thread?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pulpstar said:

    Oooh ! I get a vote in the deputy leadership election too.

    Should I go for Stella or the nonce-finder general ^_~

    We have a moral responsibility and a duty to society that the Tom and Jerry joke works.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: ...coming up, the best Jeremy Corbyn supporter re-tweet of all time...

    @SirDickOfHearts: @DPJHodges If winning elections is all you're interested in join the Tory party. They've always been better at it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    No Kezia thread?

    Stupid London centric blogosphere.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Pulpstar

    'Should I go for Stella or the nonce-finder general

    Watson's the most voter repellent.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: ...coming up, the best Jeremy Corbyn supporter re-tweet of all time...

    @SirDickOfHearts: @DPJHodges If winning elections is all you're interested in join the Tory party. They've always been better at it.

    Wow. I do get the view that it's not worth diluting one's principles too far in order to win power, but to just lay out so plainly that one's opponents are just, well, better at getting into government (and thus implicitly not always being terrible at it, or else people would not keep putting them back in there, even if they do mess up), still shocks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
    A Trump-Carson ticket won't be bad it would help him balance with evangelicals who don't like Trump, though might cost him votes from social liberals as Carson is very extreme on abortion.
    Anyway Trump is a media man and he will make his decision based on who can get most ratings.

    Goodnight.
    Which is why he would go for Ventura
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Yorkcity said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:


    ...

    Right nog.

    You're misunderstanding Mr Observer's affection for the union.

    It's the mechanism that allows him to vote Labour, regardless of their policies, because anything else represents an existential threat to the Union that he holds so dear.
    Lol - post of the day and so true.
    Southam Observer is or was a Lib Dem.
    For the last few Elections he never mentioned he was Labour.
    He's moved between Lib Dem and Labour depending on who has the best chance of beating the Tories. Because they want to abolish the welfare state, apparently.

    At the last election he agonised for ages before finally deciding the vote Labour to save the Union

    No Chas, I voted Labour because in my constituency they were best placed to beat your team.

    Not sure why uou're making things up, but please feel free to carry on if it makes you feel better.

    Two replies. Must have touched a nerve.

    The reason you gave for voting Labour was because a Tory government would mean the end of the Union.

    No, it wasn't. I wanted the Tories to lose. Though a Labour victory would have been good for the Union. The Tories are clearly not interested in preserving it and it will be gone soon enough. You will shrug your shoulders, I will be devastated. Such is life.

    Excuse me, Scottish Tories voted over 90% for the Union, had Scottish Labour got anyway near that level of support for the Union from their voters Yes would have been trounced

    Not sure the Scottish Tories have much influence in the UK party. But, yes, hundreds if thousands if Scottish Tories will also be devastated when the Union comes to an end. It looks like most of their English colleagues will be less vexed.

    I don't know about Tories specifically, but that fewer and fewer people will appear to be devastated should the Union end even in the largest constituent part of the Union, is likely a major factor it why it will end - not enough people care enough to counter the existential threat. A real shame.
    There is no polling evidence to support that, most polls show a large majority of English and Welsh voters back the Union
  • HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
    A Trump-Carson ticket won't be bad it would help him balance with evangelicals who don't like Trump, though might cost him votes from social liberals as Carson is very extreme on abortion.
    Anyway Trump is a media man and he will make his decision based on who can get most ratings.

    Goodnight.
    Which is why he would go for Ventura
    Ace Ventura? :)
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    No Kezia thread?

    Why? The pro-Assad forces still have them pinned down around Aleppo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: ...coming up, the best Jeremy Corbyn supporter re-tweet of all time...

    @SirDickOfHearts: @DPJHodges If winning elections is all you're interested in join the Tory party. They've always been better at it.

    Though since the war the Tories have won most seats in 10 elections, Labour in 9 so not much difference
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Yorkcity said:

    felix said:

    Charles said:


    ...

    Right nog.

    You're misunderstanding Mr Observer's affection for the union.

    It's the mechanism that allows him to vote Labour, regardless of their policies, because anything else represents an existential threat to the Union that he holds so dear.
    Lol - post of the day and so true.
    Southam Observer is or was a Lib Dem.
    For the last few Elections he never mentioned he was Labour.
    He's moved between Lib Dem and Labour depending on who has the best chance of beating the Tories. Because they want to abolish the welfare state, apparently.

    At the last election he agonised for ages before finally deciding the vote Labour to save the Union

    No Chas, I voted Labour because in my constituency they were best placed to beat your team.

    Not sure why uou're making things up, but please feel free to carry on if it makes you feel better.

    Two replies. Must have touched a nerve.

    The reason you gave for voting Labour was because a Tory government would mean the end of the Union.

    No, it wasn't. I wanted the Tories to lose. Though a Labour victory would have been good for the Union. The Tories are clearly not interested in preserving it and it will be gone soon enough. You will shrug your shoulders, I will be devastated. Such is life.

    Excuse me, Scottish Tories voted over 90% for the Union, had Scottish Labour got anyway near that level of support for the Union from their voters Yes would have been trounced

    Not sure the Scottish Tories have much influence in the UK party. But, yes, hundreds if thousands if Scottish Tories will also be devastated when the Union comes to an end. It looks like most of their English colleagues will be less vexed.

    I don't know about Tories specifically, but that fewer and fewer people will appear to be devastated should the Union end even in the largest constituent part of the Union, is likely a major factor it why it will end - not enough people care enough to counter the existential threat. A real shame.
    There is no polling evidence to support that, most polls show a large majority of English and Welsh voters back the Union
    I hope that's an accurate reflection of reality. I'm pessimistic about the level of passionate support, those up for the fight.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So who is going to give up their safe seat for David Miliband to make his triumphant return to save the party?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
    A Trump-Carson ticket won't be bad it would help him balance with evangelicals who don't like Trump, though might cost him votes from social liberals as Carson is very extreme on abortion.
    Anyway Trump is a media man and he will make his decision based on who can get most ratings.

    Goodnight.
    Which is why he would go for Ventura
    Ace Ventura? :)
    Would not put it past him!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: ...coming up, the best Jeremy Corbyn supporter re-tweet of all time...

    @SirDickOfHearts: @DPJHodges If winning elections is all you're interested in join the Tory party. They've always been better at it.

    Though since the war the Tories have won most seats in 10 elections, Labour in 9 so not much difference
    I presume the person saying Tories are better at winning elections included Blair's wins in the Tory total.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    edited August 2015


    'I hope that's an accurate reflection of reality. I'm pessimistic about the level of passionate support, those up for the fight.'

    Yes were far more passionate and up for the fight than No, but No still won indyref by 10%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    I presume the person saying Tories are better at winning elections included Blair's wins in the Tory total.

    Seems legit...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If you are interested in winning elections, you should join the Tories.

    if you are not interested in winning elections, you should of course join the Lib Dems...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited August 2015
    @ HYUFD

    I'm projecting forward, as a trend. I accept my pessimism is not entirely based on cold hard facts on this particular issue (or at least, even more than usual, to the point I am able to recognise my emotional volatility on the issue impacts my view).
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    JC will score a lot more points that most think. He will be like a baby at an adult drinks party..not effective but he will upset the ambience. Don't undergraduate JC and the Unions. That said, as a Tory, he is my fave.
  • Scott_P said:

    So who is going to give up their safe seat for David Miliband to make his triumphant return to save the party?

    Barry Sheerman
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Speedy said:

    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:

    welshowl said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This is a special analysis for HYUFD, he likes US demographics and stuff for elections there.

    Looking at the Comres poll, the other post election polls and the exit poll, it seems that the year of birth strongly affects voting intention and the reaction to policies and events like in 2 separate worlds, with the schism year being 1970.

    If Iur victory on a 1997 scale, assuming again that the generational schism is maintained.

    This reminds of some of the talk in the mid to late 1990's were they said that the Tory vote simply died off.

    That suggests there is no drift in opinions through age.

    I do not think it particularly significant but it is surely a contributing factor
    I haven't seen it though, that left wing wave is there since the 2005 GE and it only moves up the age cohort.

    Look at this old ICM poll from 5 years ago, you can see the left wing wave at ages under 35 back then.
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2010_dec_guardian_poll_short.pdf

    And an even older ICM poll from 10 years ago, the left wing wave at ages under 25:
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/pdfs/2005_june_guardian_june_poll.pdf

    Now the left wing wave has reached the age cohort of 40-44.
    Listen: my wife campaigned for her local MP in 87. He was J Corbyn. Whilst not loving the idea, and in full recognition of the irony, she now thinks G Osborne of 11 Downing St would more fit her views.
    Well she was born before 1970, everyone before that year votes Tory according to all the polls so no surprise there.
    Dream on if you think age doesn't change views. If that were the case Honda would've stopped selling cars years ago in this country. Not all views of course but the shift is always there.
    Believe me, I have never seen that thing in all the countries I have gone, in fact as people age they tend to be stubborn with their views not change them.
    My experience has taught me that people are shaped early on and it takes more and more effort to change them as they age.

    Or as they say "you can't teach an old dog new tricks" .
    People often (usually?) accrue wealth as they get on in life. Peoples perceptions on whether it is a good thing to take from middle earners to give to those less off slides across the spectrum a bit the further away you move from having nothing to protect to having assets.

    Owning your own house might be one of the single biggest experiences that can shape your political outlook.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Are Labour REALLY going to elect a man who

    1, will obviously shatter the party, exiling the best talents
    2. will give Tories years of ammunition about Labour consorting with terrorists, anti-Semites, racists, homophobes
    and now
    3. Is a PROVEN disaster in the polls ALREADY

    Really? Could any political party make such a terrible error?

    If they do, it would constitute the greatest act of self harm, on a party level, in modern British political history.

    Do you really believe what the opinion polls say after the events in May?
    Yes. Because the polls are in consort with the anecdata and the mood. There is clearly a surge for Corbyn, you can see it and feel it. In the GE there was just a strange fogginess, it was hard to discern any mood at all, hence the pollsters hedging and herding, in bewilderment.

    Also the polls are emphatic, not tentative. Corbyn has an enormous lead entirely outwith the margin of error.

    Is he certain to win? No. Is he odds on favourite tonight? Yes, just. Be interesting to see if this ComRes poll shifts things.

    No the Labour party is too busy pleasuring itself to notice what the wider world is saying.

    I think autoerotique asphyxiation best explains what it is currently indulging in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    edited August 2015
    kle4 said:

    @ HYUFD

    I'm projecting forward, as a trend. I accept my pessimism is not entirely based on cold hard facts on this particular issue (or at least, even more than usual, to the point I am able to recognise my emotional volatility on the issue impacts my view).

    General elections are often won by charismatic leaders and passionate supporters, referendums are normally won on logic not emotion. Hence the SNP won in 2011 and 2015 but not the referendum in 2014
  • notme said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Are Labour REALLY going to elect a man who

    1, will obviously shatter the party, exiling the best talents
    2. will give Tories years of ammunition about Labour consorting with terrorists, anti-Semites, racists, homophobes
    and now
    3. Is a PROVEN disaster in the polls ALREADY

    Really? Could any political party make such a terrible error?

    If they do, it would constitute the greatest act of self harm, on a party level, in modern British political history.

    Do you really believe what the opinion polls say after the events in May?
    Yes. Because the polls are in consort with the anecdata and the mood. There is clearly a surge for Corbyn, you can see it and feel it. In the GE there was just a strange fogginess, it was hard to discern any mood at all, hence the pollsters hedging and herding, in bewilderment.

    Also the polls are emphatic, not tentative. Corbyn has an enormous lead entirely outwith the margin of error.

    Is he certain to win? No. Is he odds on favourite tonight? Yes, just. Be interesting to see if this ComRes poll shifts things.

    No the Labour party is too busy pleasuring itself to notice what the wider world is saying.

    I think autoerotique asphyxiation best explains what it is currently indulging in.
    Stephen Milligan?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    edited August 2015
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: ...coming up, the best Jeremy Corbyn supporter re-tweet of all time...

    @SirDickOfHearts: @DPJHodges If winning elections is all you're interested in join the Tory party. They've always been better at it.

    Though since the war the Tories have won most seats in 10 elections, Labour in 9 so not much difference
    I presume the person saying Tories are better at winning elections included Blair's wins in the Tory total.
    Yes, but then again that type of 'supporter' would probably agree with Tony Benn that getting '8 million votes for Socialism' in 1983 and losing by a landslide was more of a victory than New Labour's 3 election triumphs
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Are Labour REALLY going to elect a man who

    1, will obviously shatter the party, exiling the best talents
    2. will give Tories years of ammunition about Labour consorting with terrorists, anti-Semites, racists, homophobes
    and now
    3. Is a PROVEN disaster in the polls ALREADY

    Really? Could any political party make such a terrible error?

    If they do, it would constitute the greatest act of self harm, on a party level, in modern British political history.

    Do you really believe what the opinion polls say after the events in May?
    Yes. Because the polls are in consort with the anecdata and the mood. There is clearly a surge for Corbyn, you can see it and feel it. In the GE there was just a strange fogginess, it was hard to discern any mood at all, hence the pollsters hedging and herding, in bewilderment.

    Also the polls are emphatic, not tentative. Corbyn has an enormous lead entirely outwith the margin of error.

    Is he certain to win? No. Is he odds on favourite tonight? Yes, just. Be interesting to see if this ComRes poll shifts things.

    No the Labour party is too busy pleasuring itself to notice what the wider world is saying.

    I think autoerotique asphyxiation best explains what it is currently indulging in.
    Stephen Milligan?
    It's tough when individuals do it, but when a whole organisation decides it wants to collectively 'drink the kool aid' it's fascinating to watch.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Booooh

    @DPJHodges: OK, I've had my fun. I have to come clean. The Corbyn supporter was a Tory Corbyn supporter, not a real Corbyn supporter.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SophyRidgeSky: According to @ShippersUnbound senior Labour figures last week urged leadership contenders to choose Stop Corbyn candidate & others withdraw

    @SophyRidgeSky: Liz Kendall agreed - but not on her own. Burnham & Cooper both refused to pull out. (Sunday Times)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Scott_P said:

    Booooh

    @DPJHodges: OK, I've had my fun. I have to come clean. The Corbyn supporter was a Tory Corbyn supporter, not a real Corbyn supporter.

    Double boo. Oh well, it's not like it was so out of place anyone could have been expected to tell it was not a real Corbyn supporter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    SeanT said:
    Going after the wife already? Come on Daily Mail, don;t you want to keep some things in reserve for when he actually wins? He might still slip up, unlikely as that currently seems.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Scott_P said:

    If you are interested in winning elections, you should join the Tories.
    if you are not interested in winning elections, you should of course join the Lib Dems...

    You do not have to win elections to be in government. So if you do not want to be in govt then certainly vote LD. Of course if you want to be in coalition with a pliable bunch of numpties - then vote SNP.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    alex. said:

    I cannot see any scenario where Corbyn as Labour leader will be allowed to campaign for no. He might be a slightly lacklustre yes campaigner, but suggest he campaigns for no and he will be out of the leadership within 24 hours IMO.

    I don't think most people here have worked out how Corbyn operates. He isn't a "follow me chaps" leader. I'd predict that he'll launch a consultation of members and affiliates to make a recommendation, mildly expressing a personal "yes, on balance" but letting the membership decide.
    stodge said:

    Last night, Mrs Stodge and I attended the Spandau Ballet concert after racing. I'd backed four winners to cover the tickets, food and drink and it was nice to see some middle-aged men doing something useful with their lives instead on going on political forums and whingeing how the Labour party isn't what it used to be and how wonderful the Conservatives are and how we all wish we could be 65 and live a life of unbridled luxury and contentment thanks to that nice Mr Cameron.

    To Cut A Long Story Short, I won some cash...

    Mmm. I was at Beautiful (the Carol King musical). Not normally my thing but I'm trying stuff out. Thin plot but awesome production.

  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
    A Trump-Carson ticket won't be bad it would help him balance with evangelicals who don't like Trump, though might cost him votes from social liberals as Carson is very extreme on abortion.
    Anyway Trump is a media man and he will make his decision based on who can get most ratings.

    Goodnight.
    Which is why he would go for Ventura
    Why spend time worrying about the US elections. If the GOP do not select JEB then Hillary will win and if they do select JEB then ... well either JEB or Hillary will win. Neither will frighten the family pets.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    William_H said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: More Corbyn smears from Tory scandal sheet The Independent On Sunday. "Voters believe he is least likely candidate to win general election".

    @DPJHodges: This is precisely the sort of attack Corbyn's camp were warning of. Asking actual voters what they think. Gutter journalism...

    Gee, what a shock. It's not like the media have been telling the public like that incessantly or anything...
    The Tory leaning Guardian are just as bad ... the barstards.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    edited August 2015
    Brilliant! Michael Deacon -how to speak like a Corbynite: a helpful guide

    'Blair, Tony. Genocidal Right-wing dictator who led Labour to three disastrous election victories.
    Compassion. What Corbynites’ political views are inspired by, along with empathy, kindness, decency and fellow feeling. That and Aneurin Bevan’s dictum that all Tories are “lower than vermin”.
    Foot, Michael. Visionary thinker who led Labour to triumphant defeat.
    Hatred. What Tory scum are full of.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11804199/How-to-speak-like-a-Corbynite-a-helpful-guide.html
  • SeanT said:

    Do those count as *decent jobs*, Jeremy? £250 a year?

    How much is your wife making??

    Oh please elect him. Please!

    Ah, the witterings of a Primrose Hill (borders) Blairite :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Oooh ! I get a vote in the deputy leadership election too.

    Should I go for Stella or the nonce-finder general ^_~

    I subscribed by text - got a message saying thank you we'll be in touch...no follow up yet.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    HYUFD said:

    Brilliant! Michael Deacon -how to speak like a Corbynite: a helpful guide

    'Blair, Tony. Genocidal Right-wing dictator who led Labour to three disastrous election victories.
    Compassion. What Corbynites’ political views are inspired by, along with empathy, kindness, decency and fellow feeling. That and Aneurin Bevan’s dictum that all Tories are “lower than vermin”.
    Foot, Michael. Visionary thinker who led Labour to triumphant defeat.
    Hatred. What Tory scum are full of.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11804199/How-to-speak-like-a-Corbynite-a-helpful-guide.html

    Yes - the difference of definition between idealogical and principled made me laugh.

    And the fun with ''proletariat''... a favourite lefty word.
    Harold Wilson (a far better lefty than Corbyn) pointed out that the idea of a proletariat was nonsense. Karl Marx he said had not understood people and did not know about them as individuals, only in the mass. Wilson also said that he had given up on Das Kapital when he found,early on, a footnote longer than the text.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:
    Going after the wife already? Come on Daily Mail, don;t you want to keep some things in reserve for when he actually wins? He might still slip up, unlikely as that currently seems.
    Mail on Sunday. Rival paper. But still..

    I suspect they can't resist. Corbyn is such a juicy target, such low hanging fruit, even though their Tory-supporting instincts tell them to hang back, their journalistic instincts - rip this cretin apart and sell some papers, are winning out. The Tory redtops may end up saving Labour. Flamboyantly ironic.
    They need to hold off till he's won the bloody election !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Hmm. Who does the most damage to Labour? Thoughts?

    Historically? Tom Watson
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Wow, those Comres Corbyn figures are even worse than I expected. Luckily my socialist friends think the Corbyn warnings are a Blairite conspiracy, and that Britain really wants the politics of envy that they want. Hilarious!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oooh ! I get a vote in the deputy leadership election too.

    Should I go for Stella or the nonce-finder general ^_~

    I subscribed by text - got a message saying thank you we'll be in touch...no follow up yet.
    I just got my first email about my vote for deputy leader.

    Hmm. Who does the most damage to Labour? Thoughts?
    Although wouldn't you like to see every story about Labour include a photo of Stella?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Hmm. Who does the most damage to Labour? Thoughts?

    Historically? Tom Watson
    The man who set the ball rolling to get rid of Blair, visiting Brown the day before Watson''s letter was sent, but obviously not discussing the issue with Brown. No that would never have come up in conversation.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    alex. said:

    I cannot see any scenario where Corbyn as Labour leader will be allowed to campaign for no. He might be a slightly lacklustre yes campaigner, but suggest he campaigns for no and he will be out of the leadership within 24 hours IMO.

    I don't think most people here have worked out how Corbyn operates. He isn't a "follow me chaps" leader. I'd predict that he'll launch a consultation of members and affiliates to make a recommendation, mildly expressing a personal "yes, on balance" but letting the membership decide.

    Either you are thicker than we think or we are not as thick as you think. What rubbish.

    He will consult the 'affiliates'? Of course he will you dummy - they are the ones he has signed up to vote for him! What kind of answer would Koresh get if he made a suggestion to his acolytes?
    And the shrug of the shoulders 'suggestion' will be backed up by trade union propaganda.
    The only one to have any power taken from them will be the PLP.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    edited August 2015
    Stella is the most likely realistic 2025 election winner. She has empathy, can communicate and has actually influenced policy that helps the working poor, from opposition. Very impressive.

    That said, I'm told she's not popular in the PLP. I wish she would cross the floor; would be huge coup for the blues....
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited August 2015
    .
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Hmm. Who does the most damage to Labour? Thoughts?

    Historically? Tom Watson
    The man who set the ball rolling to get rid of Blair, visiting Brown the day before Watson''s letter was sent, but obviously not discussing the issue with Brown. No that would never have come up in conversation.
    Of course. Who can ever doubt it did not. I mean Watson has assured us of that hasn't he... and it was just a coincidence he was delivering Christmas presents.

    Hmm -- assuming he is still a fully paid up Brownite then maybe it is a stretch to think that Corbynites will vote for him. Who is the ABW candidate?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Hmm. Who does the most damage to Labour? Thoughts?

    Historically? Tom Watson
    The man who set the ball rolling to get rid of Blair, visiting Brown the day before Watson''s letter was sent, but obviously not discussing the issue with Brown. No that would never have come up in conversation.
    Of course. Who can ever doubt it did not. I mean Watson has assured us of that hasn't he... and it was just a coincidence he was delivering Christmas presents.

    Hmm -- assuming he is still a fully paid up Brownite then maybe it is a stretch to think that Corbynites will vote for him. Who is the ABW candidate?
    Call me cynical, and it is late. But I doubt recent Corbynite converts have any idea about the deputy vote as they have no idea about the workings or personnel of the labour party.
  • SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oooh ! I get a vote in the deputy leadership election too.

    Should I go for Stella or the nonce-finder general ^_~

    I subscribed by text - got a message saying thank you we'll be in touch...no follow up yet.
    I just got my first email about my vote for deputy leader.

    Hmm. Who does the most damage to Labour? Thoughts?
    Although wouldn't you like to see every story about Labour include a photo of Stella?
    You mean, uh, *erotically*??

    Not really. Bit too much like my babymother to be arousing. I will confess to a bit of a thing about Luciana Berger MP. Smart annoying Jewish girls have always been a failing of mine.

    And she is the spitting image of my greatest love.

    PS I wonder if Ed has a thing for her too. Look at his face, here

    http://www.lucianaberger.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Luciana-and-Ed2.jpg
    More of a Rachel Reeves man myself :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Mortimer said:

    Stella is the most likely realistic 2025 election winner. She has empathy, can communicate and has actually influenced policy that helps the working poor, from opposition. Very impressive.

    That said, I'm told she's not popular in the PLP. I wish she would cross the floor; would be huge coup for the blues....

    I'm a fan. Don't get why she is so unpopular with PLP - too aloof? Mind you I doubt TB was a massive feature of the tea room.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137

    alex. said:

    I cannot see any scenario where Corbyn as Labour leader will be allowed to campaign for no. He might be a slightly lacklustre yes campaigner, but suggest he campaigns for no and he will be out of the leadership within 24 hours IMO.

    I don't think most people here have worked out how Corbyn operates. He isn't a "follow me chaps" leader. I'd predict that he'll launch a consultation of members and affiliates to make a recommendation, mildly expressing a personal "yes, on balance" but letting the membership decide.

    Either you are thicker than we think or we are not as thick as you think. What rubbish.

    He will consult the 'affiliates'? Of course he will you dummy - they are the ones he has signed up to vote for him! What kind of answer would Koresh get if he made a suggestion to his acolytes?
    And the shrug of the shoulders 'suggestion' will be backed up by trade union propaganda.
    The only one to have any power taken from them will be the PLP.
    How long will this consultation take? Meanwhile Britain moves on.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:
    Going after the wife already? Come on Daily Mail, don;t you want to keep some things in reserve for when he actually wins? He might still slip up, unlikely as that currently seems.
    Mail on Sunday. Rival paper. But still..

    I suspect they can't resist. Corbyn is such a juicy target, such low hanging fruit, even though their Tory-supporting instincts tell them to hang back, their journalistic instincts - rip this cretin apart and sell some papers, are winning out. The Tory redtops may end up saving Labour. Flamboyantly ironic.
    They need to hold off till he's won the bloody election !
    The best of The Times the worst of The Times -- it is a far far better thing The Mail do today than its ever done before. It must sacrifice its scoops to save the nations politics.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    SeanT said:

    New poll in t'Guardian of Labour voters.

    Opinium says

    37 Corbyn
    29 Burnham
    19 Cooper
    15 Kendall (surprisingly good)

    That's the VOTERS. The hardcore selectorate will be much leftier than that.

    Corbyn has this sewn up unless he screws up. Majorly.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/15/jeremy-corbyn-pledge-pro-business-back-entrepreneurs?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I like the "flash mob" comment. This election feels like a party political drive-by shooting to me.


  • "Comrades, this is your Leadership Candidate. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Hmm. Who does the most damage to Labour? Thoughts?

    Historically? Tom Watson
    So I should vote Corbyn, Watson?

    What do I do with my preferences?

    Seriously, I need advice. I haven't got time or energy to work this out, I'd be grateful! Obvs I just want to harm Labour and the Left.
    Corbyn and Flint? Endless tension.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137



    "Comrades, this is your Leadership Candidate. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"

    LOL. So real I can feel it.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Assuming that the conventional wisdom on PB is right, and a) Corbyn is elected and b) he's a disaster, are there any grounds for assuming that the field for the next Labour leadership election will be more talented than this one?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669



    "Comrades, this is your Leadership Candidate. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"

    Admit it - you just watched Hunt for Red October.
  • Haven't posted in yonks. Anyways, I voted Labour in the first two Blair elections but would never ever vote for the Corbyn Wolfie Smith tribute act. I may vote for Liz K. Possibly. As she is rubbish but sane. But basically as she is being to told to eff off by Labour members I interpret this to mean my vote should eff off as well.

    As an aside, for people who are interested in tbis sort of thing, Me and missus bolger went to see Attlia the Stockbroker for the first time in 25 yrs at the Ledbury poetry fest a few weeks ago..we loved him when we were younger, thought he was cutting edge, now just seems an embarrassing adolescant throwback..the middle England audience was basically bemused, like watching Rick from the Young Ones when his mates have grown up...perhaps this reflects younger lefties now moving Tory.
  • Tim_B said:



    "Comrades, this is your Leadership Candidate. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"

    Admit it - you just watched Hunt for Red October.
    No, if you were paying attention, I've posted the above at least twice before :)

    BTW this year, it will be Red September (12th)!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008

    HYUFD said:

    Brilliant! Michael Deacon -how to speak like a Corbynite: a helpful guide

    'Blair, Tony. Genocidal Right-wing dictator who led Labour to three disastrous election victories.
    Compassion. What Corbynites’ political views are inspired by, along with empathy, kindness, decency and fellow feeling. That and Aneurin Bevan’s dictum that all Tories are “lower than vermin”.
    Foot, Michael. Visionary thinker who led Labour to triumphant defeat.
    Hatred. What Tory scum are full of.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11804199/How-to-speak-like-a-Corbynite-a-helpful-guide.html

    Yes - the difference of definition between idealogical and principled made me laugh.

    And the fun with ''proletariat''... a favourite lefty word.
    Harold Wilson (a far better lefty than Corbyn) pointed out that the idea of a proletariat was nonsense. Karl Marx he said had not understood people and did not know about them as individuals, only in the mass. Wilson also said that he had given up on Das Kapital when he found,early on, a footnote longer than the text.

    HYUFD said:

    Brilliant! Michael Deacon -how to speak like a Corbynite: a helpful guide

    'Blair, Tony. Genocidal Right-wing dictator who led Labour to three disastrous election victories.
    Compassion. What Corbynites’ political views are inspired by, along with empathy, kindness, decency and fellow feeling. That and Aneurin Bevan’s dictum that all Tories are “lower than vermin”.
    Foot, Michael. Visionary thinker who led Labour to triumphant defeat.
    Hatred. What Tory scum are full of.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11804199/How-to-speak-like-a-Corbynite-a-helpful-guide.html

    Yes - the difference of definition between idealogical and principled made me laugh.

    And the fun with ''proletariat''... a favourite lefty word.
    Harold Wilson (a far better lefty than Corbyn) pointed out that the idea of a proletariat was nonsense. Karl Marx he said had not understood people and did not know about them as individuals, only in the mass. Wilson also said that he had given up on Das Kapital when he found,early on, a footnote longer than the text.
    Deacon is excellent. Wilson was always a pragmatist, although leftwing, which was why he won elections
  • Mortimer said:

    Stella is the most likely realistic 2025 election winner. She has empathy, can communicate and has actually influenced policy that helps the working poor, from opposition. Very impressive.

    That said, I'm told she's not popular in the PLP. I wish she would cross the floor; would be huge coup for the blues....

    There's not a chance in hell Creasy would cross the floor. Looking at her social views alone, I don't exactly see her working in the Tory party either.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Tim_B said:

    Assuming that the conventional wisdom on PB is right, and a) Corbyn is elected and b) he's a disaster, are there any grounds for assuming that the field for the next Labour leadership election will be more talented than this one?

    Depends whether the PLP stays together. Jarvis, Chukka, Reeves (amazingly stuck out at 50s), Miliband (yes, he'll be back IMHO), Stella, Starmer (gets my money), surprise-candidate-you've-not-heard-of-yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
    A Trump-Carson ticket won't be bad it would help him balance with evangelicals who don't like Trump, though might cost him votes from social liberals as Carson is very extreme on abortion.
    Anyway Trump is a media man and he will make his decision based on who can get most ratings.

    Goodnight.
    Which is why he would go for Ventura
    Why spend time worrying about the US elections. If the GOP do not select JEB then Hillary will win and if they do select JEB then ... well either JEB or Hillary will win. Neither will frighten the family pets.
    Except on present polling it is perfectly possible neither will end up being the nominee of their party, let alone president
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is this really the Scottish sub-sample for that ComRes poll?

    @BBCPropaganda: ComRes Scotland subset
    SNP 48% (-2%)
    Con 23% (+8%)
    Lab 14% (-10%)
    LD 7% (-1%)
    UKIP 4% (+2)

    Ouch.

    It's the same as the survation one yesterday.
    No it is not - Survation had Labour on 22% in Scotland!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:



    "Comrades, this is your Leadership Candidate. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"

    Admit it - you just watched Hunt for Red October.
    No, if you were paying attention, I've posted the above at least twice before :)

    BTW this year, it will be Red September (12th)!
    Obviously I'm not paying attention ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137

    Haven't posted in yonks. Anyways, I voted Labour in the first two Blair elections but would never ever vote for the Corbyn Wolfie Smith tribute act. I may vote for Liz K. Possibly. As she is rubbish but sane. But basically as she is being to told to eff off by Labour members I interpret this to mean my vote should eff off as well.

    As an aside, for people who are interested in tbis sort of thing, Me and missus bolger went to see Attlia the Stockbroker for the first time in 25 yrs at the Ledbury poetry fest a few weeks ago..we loved him when we were younger, thought he was cutting edge, now just seems an embarrassing adolescant throwback..the middle England audience was basically bemused, like watching Rick from the Young Ones when his mates have grown up...perhaps this reflects younger lefties now moving Tory.

    Good to see you posting. I dimly remember Attila from my students days in Leeds in early 80s.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
    A Trump-Carson ticket won't be bad it would help him balance with evangelicals who don't like Trump, though might cost him votes from social liberals as Carson is very extreme on abortion.
    Anyway Trump is a media man and he will make his decision based on who can get most ratings.

    Goodnight.
    Which is why he would go for Ventura
    Why spend time worrying about the US elections. If the GOP do not select JEB then Hillary will win and if they do select JEB then ... well either JEB or Hillary will win. Neither will frighten the family pets.
    Except on present polling it is perfectly possible neither will end up being the nominee of their party, let alone president
    I think it should be Hillary. Be mad to bet against her frankly. And yet, I'm beginning to get a feeling an upset is going to happen.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Hmm. Who does the most damage to Labour? Thoughts?

    Historically? Tom Watson
    So I should vote Corbyn, Watson?

    What do I do with my preferences?

    Seriously, I need advice. I haven't got time or energy to work this out, I'd be grateful! Obvs I just want to harm Labour and the Left.
    Corbyn and Flint? Endless tension.
    Flint is also particularly obnoxious in interviews and, presumably, personal interactions. That means she could do damage to Labour publicly, and would represent the Blairites badly by offending everyone in the mainstream left.
  • Good to see you posting. I dimly remember Attila from my students days in Leeds in early 80s.


    History 82-85!
  • I haven't seen any young lefties moving Tory. If anything, from what I've seen online, politics among politically-interested young people is becoming more and more polarised. You have extreme hard-left types who believe that anyone who even looks at Corbyn in the wrong way is a Tory. You have other hard-right types on forums such as The Student Room, who actively believe that people aren't entitled to equality of opportunity, and that the British establishment should exclusively run things. Both groups are utterly absurd.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
    A Trump-Carson ticket won't be bad it would help him balance with evangelicals who don't like Trump, though might cost him votes from social liberals as Carson is very extreme on abortion.
    Anyway Trump is a media man and he will make his decision based on who can get most ratings.

    Goodnight.
    Which is why he would go for Ventura
    Why spend time worrying about the US elections. If the GOP do not select JEB then Hillary will win and if they do select JEB then ... well either JEB or Hillary will win. Neither will frighten the family pets.
    Except on present polling it is perfectly possible neither will end up being the nominee of their party, let alone president
    I think it should be Hillary. Be mad to bet against her frankly. And yet, I'm beginning to get a feeling an upset is going to happen.
    Based on today's Iowa Straw Poll it would be Trump v Sanders and Iowa is the first state to vote
    https://sos.iowa.gov/statefair.html
  • I haven't seen any young lefties moving Tory.

    Seriously, and without meaning to patronise, give it 20 years, and then chek out out your friends...

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, not that up on US politics (especially compared to the denizens of PB), but isn't that a lame duck approach?

    He is aiming to neutralise the age issue but I presume would pick a younger VP nominee
    Trump has already got a candidate:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jesse-ventura-donald-trump-vice-president-possible-pick-121294.html

    Though Trump's team has already expressed a preference for Carson.
    Trump-Ventura would be quite the ticket, at least for the media
    A Trump-Carson ticket won't be bad it would help him balance with evangelicals who don't like Trump, though might cost him votes from social liberals as Carson is very extreme on abortion.
    Anyway Trump is a media man and he will make his decision based on who can get most ratings.

    Goodnight.
    Which is why he would go for Ventura
    Why spend time worrying about the US elections. If the GOP do not select JEB then Hillary will win and if they do select JEB then ... well either JEB or Hillary will win. Neither will frighten the family pets.
    Except on present polling it is perfectly possible neither will end up being the nominee of their party, let alone president
    I think it should be Hillary. Be mad to bet against her frankly. And yet, I'm beginning to get a feeling an upset is going to happen.
    Based on today's Iowa Straw Poll it would be Trump v Sanders and Iowa is the first state to vote
    https://sos.iowa.gov/statefair.html
    Carly in 4th. Still excellent value IMHO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137

    Good to see you posting. I dimly remember Attila from my students days in Leeds in early 80s.


    History 82-85!

    No way! Computer Science 82-85!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    I haven't seen any young lefties moving Tory. If anything, from what I've seen online, politics among politically-interested young people is becoming more and more polarised. You have extreme hard-left types who believe that anyone who even looks at Corbyn in the wrong way is a Tory. You have other hard-right types on forums such as The Student Room, who actively believe that people aren't entitled to equality of opportunity, and that the British establishment should exclusively run things. Both groups are utterly absurd.

    Voting Green/Lab/Lib Dem at uni might seem trendy but a few years post-graduation when you are almost in higher tax rate territory you realise voting Tory makes more sense.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    ... We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! ...

    Thanks for the laugh.. LOL
Sign In or Register to comment.