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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a Corbyn victory then it might make referendum
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a Corbyn victory then it might make referendum NO bets look quite tempting
I’ve been trying to look at other political betting markets which might be affected if Corbyn does, as the YouGov numbers suggest, take the crown in the LAB leadership contest.
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First
First sensible comment!
Labour should be under no illusions. A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.
It is going to be very close, as the No side - on both the left and right - will be very motivated; with only a few desultory enthusiasts on the other side to counter them.
Should Cameron lose, that really would put the cat among the pigeons.
Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.
Never heard so much as a whisper of this new leader. Who she??
Surely a stopgap until the parties can find a fish big enough and strong enough to swallow the Sturgeon, whole.
Caviar, anyone?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33942238
Year of Next GE 2018/19? If you think Cameron is tempted to stay on, this'd let him.
Lab Leader Next GE, perhaps; you'd have to say that Corbyn remaining as leader will be 50/50 if he's bad at (say) PMQs, so exclude all four contenders?
Ladbrokes Holyrood Labour most seats excluding SNP at 1/3?
I suspect Cameron always assumed that, however reluctantly, the left would by and large vote Yes. I don't think he can assume that now.
There are plenty of scenarios where Corbyn remains "officially" Labour leader, but in reality is out.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/sometimes-its-just-a-spade/
I think Kezia's first challenge is to manage expectations around Holyrood 2016, based on current polling SLAB would lose all of their 13 constituency seats and be left with 25 list seats.
The problem facing Kezia is that there are going to be around 100 candidates after these 25 list seats. Kezia and her deputy are guaranteed 1st place on their regional lists, other than that it's going to get messy !!
I hope that, regardless of our own personal preferences, the Old Brigade will at least inform the younger voters of the experiences of last time.
Can't you do it online? In which case - has online voting opened yet?
"Ballots will be sent on 14 August and an email with details of how to vote online will be sent around the same time."
No doubt 2nd class to save a few bob.
I see the figures from comres are not good for corbyn
- Lots of people know who he is
- The media gets to grips with him
The answers re "If Corbyn is PM" should be very, very frightening for any Lab supporter. They look like total wipeout territory.
Nonetheless No is where the value is on Betfair. The polls are not that far apart and the kippers and fellow travellers are going to have a high turnout. The polls will get closer as time goes on and there will be wobbles. I expect that it should be easy to go all green on this market closer to the time.
And of course I will be voting Yes.
If people wish to write my ID out, it is correctly 'Y Doethur': 'The Doctor'. I know it is Welsh and therefore hard!
Also during the rather surreal comments on 'your dictator murdered more people than my dictator' everyone missed the punchline on Ceaucescu - he was knighted by James Callaghan in 1979.
This is because he was seen as a possible conduit between the Soviet Union and the West, so everyone sucked up to him. He was of course a moderate compared to some - Honecker, Hoxha, Karday - which is a fairly damning indictment of the evils of the Soviet system.
Some other pretty unsavoury characters have been knighted - cf. Robert Mugabe.
I have had a most interesting day at Stratford watching Othello. However, the Labour leadership election is descending into a bizarre cross between Twelfth Night and Macbeth. The Scottish one was definitely Much Ado About Nothing.
However the best score of all was recorded by someone not even running, David Miliband was on +11%
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/
Make the British economy worse
Make the Labour Party's popularity worse
Make Britain's standing in the world worse
Make the personal finances of ordinary Britons worse
Make public trust in politicians worse
Make divisions within society worse
Make job opportunities for British people worse
I think perhaps there is a bit of a logical inconsistency here...
As for the gross misspelling of your screen name, I apologise and can only plead in mitigation that I had had a jolly lunch. However, now that you have explained the spelling and the meaning i shall not make that mistake again. Whether you will enjoy being addressed as," The Doctor" we shall see.
If Corbyn wins, could Lab end up 15 or even 20 points behind?
Surely if that happened he would be unseated?
Whatever the technicalities, if say 85% of Lab MPs sign a motion calling for him to go his position would be untenable?
FPT:
Congrats to @Pauly on getting into Birmingham. I think my own experiences at uni made me more left, than right-wing though
Also, I really enjoyed reading @Flockers_pb's contributions, they are really insightful. I also think that @SouthamObserver makes an excellent point in regard to Tom Watson. Although I intensely dislike the man, he is not someone of the hard-left; as Brownite, he'll too oppose the idea of Labour becoming some far-left movement. Thus, Tom Watson's role as Deputy Leader is even more crucial when you account for David Herdson's point that Corbyn lacks organisational skills. More importantly, Watson doesn't lack these skills. Watson has even been involved in takeovers - he was very much involved in the 2005-06 Brownite plot to oust Tony Blair. Although I like Stella Creasy, it may turn out to be a blessing for Labour that someone involved in the political dark arts is elected deputy leader. He is no way an endearing, or charismatic figure - but he could well undermine Corbyn by assuming organisational control of the Labour party.
(PS I intended my earlier post as a bit of a joke - I do hope I didn't accidentally offend you. Apologies if I did.)
'I'm an emphatic No, but view the hastening of the breakup of the UK as the icing on the cake if we win.'
Me too, a win win
If you ask me, this whole thing with Corbyn is the Labour Party sending a big F.U. to the voters for rejecting Labour twice...
So I'm guessing the polls will have little bearing on Corbyn's leadership. Local, mayoral and by-election results though will become much more important if they show a clear and consistent pattern.
So its really quite impossible to predict what will happen. Gordon Brown is supposed to be speaking tomorrow, but for all the effect it will have on the electorate they may as well wheel out George Brown.
So essentially there is no one over the age of 65 voting Labour.
Also it's the second poll that has Labour behind the Tories in scotland.
As for Gordon Brown, he wasn't really elected; it was more of a coup. Ed Miliband was chosen by unions, not bt activists. So out of all of Labour's bad leadership choices, Corbyn is one in which members and activists can be most pointed to.
I'd be surprised if Corbyn wants to leave the EU. It would seem to chime well with his views on immigration, although perhaps it clashes in other areas.
Mr. Alex, it's mildly hilarious how some think Scotland leaving the UK is super because independence is awesome, but leaving the EU is awful because of the economic integration.
It's the mechanism that allows him to vote Labour, regardless of their policies, because anything else represents an existential threat to the Union that he holds so dear.
Wales hasn't been independent, or anything approaching it, since Llewellyn made the mistake of annoying Edward I. It also has 3% of the UK's population and 2% of the wealth.
[I got some books on modern history last Christmas].
Hope you enjoy your books on 'modern' history. If you ever tire of the Middle Ages, I've got some books on the Stuarts you can borrow!
In any case though, I doubt Labour are signifcantly ahead with under 45s - it's one poll after all. In the GE, Labour did well with 18-24 year olds, but their advantage dissipated with voters over the age of 25, especially males. Where Labour did well was under 45 females. Labour also did badly with CD2Es, which I doubt has changed - and if we rely on stereotypes of the 'White Van Man' - then these groups are middle-aged, at the very least.
Not surprised that the over 65s are voting Tory in large numbers. Life is pretty much set-up for them under the Tories, in contrast to anyone middle-aged, or younger. Also over 65s are naturally Conservative as well.
Anyway, I stand corrected. In my defence, I've said many times I'm not au fait with modern history.
Edited extra bit: a kind offer, but (as well as currently reading a new book on the Diadochi, huzzah!) I've got a lengthy reading list and I really should be writing more and reading less.
Got a bit of an awkward book queue forming. I'll be glad when Temple and Treasure come out.