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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Yvette Cooper could come 3rd on 1st preferences yet sti
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Yvette Cooper could come 3rd on 1st preferences yet still end up as winner
In the last 2 big LAB selections the person top on 1st round hasn’t won. This happened with Harriet Harman in the 2007 deputy race and, of course, when EdM beat his brother five years ago. This was all, of course, because of the party’s alternative voting system when electors are asked to give their second and third choices as well as their first one.
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Tough call on how people will cast their alternative votes - could be wrong, but I'd imagine many Ist preference Jeremy Corbyn voters will not bother with a 2nd or 3rd nominee.
Mike and Mark above both have their figures with around 95% of votes counting in the final round, do we know from the previous contests in 2010 and 2007 if this is approximately the number to expect this time?
I think Corbyns best chance is to win outright in the first ballot like Tony Blair did , but I doubt he will do that ....Corbynmania has already peaked and reached its high water mark ; it has spooked the Labour voters and will unify them behind the eventual winner , who I believe will be Yvette Cooper
The influx of new voters is worrysome as most of these must be Corbynites , but I suspect there will be just enough sensible sober minded voters to see off the threat of Corbynism ; I just don't think the LP are willing to throw in the towel and become an unelectable fringe /protest party just yet
I agree , they are burning with the zeal of the converted and want their candidate alone to win , but that doesn't matter if he comes second
I have tried manfully to imagine Corbyn as leader , trying to put a shadow cabinet together and asking for party unity , But I have failed ...the person who voted against his own whip 500 times is hardly going to inspire unity , it's like asking the arsonist to give a speech on fire prevention
Corbynmania has taken on characteristics of a religious revival but it just seems to me that folks will sober up and come to their senses , sooner or later
Corbynism may appear optimistic , indeed it has some characteristics of a religious revival , but it is primarily defeatist and pessimistic ; it is about giving up and acknowledging that the LP is now incapable of winning elections ..
This is what Corbynism is at heart , indeed it attempts to wear defeat as a badge of honour , to make un-electability into a political virtue , to become proud principled losers and so it's hardly surprising that Corbyn has attracted many followers because defeat , like misery , just loves company !
It is in fact the Left of the Labour Party throwing in the towel and accepting that they are hopelessly anachronistic and completely unsuitable for government in the postmodern UK and are resigned to their fate as a mere fringe /protest party something like UKIP or the Greens ..THIS IS CORBYNISM !
If Politics is the art of compromise then Corbyn's achilees heel is his dogmatic inability to compromise and it's sure to be his downfall ..with him it's all or nothing ! In that regard he is just typical of so many two dimensional ,quasi Marxists insomuch that he sees the world in absolutes
Corbyn represents the politics of the 1970's student union with the iconic poster of CHE and a mawkishly romantic view of socialism ..his politics have not evolved or matured with age , indeed he is still the same Leftist radical he was in the late 1970s ; a professional protester and iconoclast , a Peter Pan like figure whose political views refused to grow up AND YET this is the person who has deluded himself into believing that he can lead the LP to victory with support from about 10% of Labour MPs
But Corbyn looks nailed on, it would not surprise me if he won on first preferences.
I do agree that those who support Corbyn with religious fervour will be seriously ticked off if he is ahead for rounds 1 and 2 and then is pipped at that post. Unlike David Miliband supporters they are unlikely to just accept it. Labour have not been united by this process, quite the reverse.
Is there really a majority in Labour now who wants to reject their most successful electoral period in their history? I don't believe so but the way the electorate has been distorted by the Union sign ups and blatant entryism does make you pause.
It doesn't work so well when there is a large body of opinion that would only accept one candidate.
And they might also argue that it was them that created the Labour party to represent their interests in the first place. It is just that in the modern world trade unionism is almost entirely a public sector phenomenon and it distorts the thinking and the perspective in a way that is unacceptable to a majority of the population. We saw a lot of this under Ed and it looks like we might see a lot more.
"How I signed up for five years free medical treatment in Hungary - at YOUR expense."
She's never lived in the UK or paid tax here... but NHS is liable for this Hungarian mother's health bills
Undercover reporter Ani Horvath lives in Budapest and has no links to UK
Given European Health Insurance Card for free without seeing a UK doctor
Local optician and dermatologist said treatment would be covered by NHS
Birth centre manager said EHIC would cover appointments while she was pregnant in Hungary
"Healthcare is expensive in Eastern Europe and increasing numbers are charging their treatment to Britain. They are doing so using UK-registered European Health Insurance Cards.
These cards are meant to be used only by British tourists and entitle them to public healthcare while travelling in European Economic Area countries and Switzerland.
But there is no requirement to prove you work in Britain to get one. All you need is an NHS number – which anyone can get by signing up at a GP surgery, even if you are a failed asylum seeker."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3191573/How-signed-five-years-free-medical-treatment-Hungary-expense-s-never-lived-UK-paid-tax-NHS-liable-Hungarian-mother-s-health-bills.html#ixzz3iOEExJNv
https://www.gov.uk/healthcare-immigration-application
But it doesn't matter, as if he makes it through to the last round, they are never considered anyway.
Good tool, Mr. Hopkins.
AV, as we know, leads to depression, loneliness, and Ed Miliband.
I can see him being stuck just below the 50% point and being pipped by Cooper/Burnham in the third round.
Jeremy Corbyn brings his Labour leadership campaign to Wales as a fierce battle for the support of party members continues. -The veteran left-winger has won the backing of more local constituency parties in Wales and the UK than the other three candidates.
He will visit Llandudno and Connah's Quay on Monday and Tredegar and Cardiff on Tuesday.
Credit where it's due, Corbyn's media circus hasn’t let up for a second since the hustings. Are the other three on their Summer holidays?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-33819019
Corbyn gets 48% or so of first preferences, but those who don't offer second or third preferences for Kendall and the second candidate to leave the stage reduce the voter pool to such an extent that initial 48% tips over into an outright majority in round 3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlADe9yrrWA
The ability to use a keyboard is apparently very important...
That's why this tool exists - add a new entry and put your estimates for the votes and transfer percentages in, and see what happens.
Then we can see directly the result of your scenarios.
This time around, bearing in mind they have no candidate to be deputy leader, and will hold very few (no?) Shadow Cabinet positions, matters will be worse if the third placed candidate comes through to beat the Jezziah in the last round. They will go absolutely ballistic. Indeed, if it's very close it wouldn't surprise me if they launched a legal challenge.
The only way Labour can be saved from prolonged chaos and infighting at this point would appear to be for Cooper or Burnham to emerge the clear winner on first preferences, which would hammer into the head of even so dense a gentleman as Len McCluskey that the good ol' days have gone. Since it is more likely that Alex Salmond will come out as a closet Unionist than that one of those two will manage such a thing, anyone who has bets on Labour continuing to go backwards in 2020 is probably on a good thing.
Old Naval saying: 'Always choose the lesser of two evils.'
The more relevant and open question is how many Kendall, Cooper and Burnham voters won't use their full preferences either. I'm surprised that Mike has Cooper winning on just 22% to Corbyn's 41%. That feels to me like just too big a split. She would have to pick up three-quarters of reallocated Burnham / Kendall votes. Or, if we assume a 10% drop-out from non-transferable votes on each transfer (and it might well be higher than that), then she'd need around 3.75 transfers from Burnham and Kendall for every one that Corbyn takes, which is a huge proportion. She might well take that from Kendall but there aren't too many votes there. But Burnham? Corbyn has made clear inroads into the mainstream Labour vote. Why wouldn't other mainstream Labour voters who've gone for Cooper or Burnham first then at least consider the bearded one?
My gut feeling is that 40 is about the tipping point: Corbyn will struggle to get over the line with a score in the thirties. On the other side, 42+ should see him comfortably home.
One other aspect of Mike's figures. The Labour leader looks set for a crisis of legitimacy either way. Either he doesn't have the support of his MPs (Corbyn) or s/he receieved at best around a quarter of the membership's vote - and quite possibly less - (Burnham / Cooper). Some might say that this doesn't matter and it's how the system works. Fair enough: it is. But that won't stop Labour's opponents making the (for example) "third choice" claim all the same.
Now that I ramble that, it makes me wonder if demographic calculators (of the real world) are considered by parties when putting together long term positioning/policies.
If Corbyn wins, or if he loses by a slim margin, a split could be a real possibility.
Is there any market on Labour adopting the Conservative system of the PLP selecting two and then putting that choice to the membership? Because even allowing for some poor choices, so far as I know nobody has ever seriously questioned the legitimacy of winners under that system (leaving aside that uncited wikipedia entry).
"If Corbyn loses there will be a mass exodus of most, if not all, the new members who signed up to vote for Corbyn"
I thought they were all fifth collumist Tories anyway so wouldn't they leave after the vote whatever the result?
This time around, bearing in mind they have no candidate to be deputy leader, and will hold very few (no?) Shadow Cabinet positions, matters will be worse if the third placed candidate comes through to beat the Jezziah in the last round. They will go absolutely ballistic. Indeed, if it's very close it wouldn't surprise me if they launched a legal challenge.
The only way Labour can be saved from prolonged chaos and infighting at this point would appear to be for Cooper or Burnham to emerge the clear winner on first preferences, which would hammer into the head of even so dense a gentleman as Len McCluskey that the good ol' days have gone. Since it is more likely that Alex Salmond will come out as a closet Unionist than that one of those two will manage such a thing, anyone who has bets on Labour continuing to go backwards in 2020 is probably on a good thing.
Rules are rules and if the left fail to get more than 50% tough. Heatley was deputy for the duration and Burnham has said he would give Cornyn a job anyway and he was second after preferences with yougov. By 2020 the Torries will have had their own post eu ref leadership election anyway
(I have some ideas on this as it happens, but a split still looks a fairly distant possibility to me at present.)
Cooper 4.3/4.5 Buy
Corbyn 2.8 Buy
Burnham 2.54/2.56 Sell.
Kendall 95/100 Neutral.
"Jeremy Corbyn: - I come to bury Blairism, not to praise it."
He could have continued......
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interrèd with their bones.
So let it be with Blair..........
Same issue last time around. Ed Miliband was pretty clearly the best of the bunch, even though he only won narrowly and was not personally popular (David is a talented administrator, but no imagination and no drive - he was not a leader). Look what happened to him.
Because Labour were in power so long, and Gordon Brown hammered any talented rivals to pieces, they were left with a shocking dearth of talent. And none is coming through to replace it as Labour are not currently an attractive political vehicle and politics is not an attractive profession financially or in light of the huge sacrifices of time and privacy that are required of its participants.
Labour are in a shocking mess, and it may take years to sort out.
"If Corbyn wins, or if he loses by a slim margin, a split could be a real possibility"
Won't happen because it never does. Everyone will be swept away by the avalanche of news stories about Labour electing their first female leader
If Corbyn does lose would he want a shadow cabinet position? Seems he'd be happiest just milking his I expected moment in the limelight.
Others looking out for transfers would appear to give the early leader a substantial advantage.
The answer is the leader the blues don't talk about - the great Edward Heath.
I don't believe it ! a vocal shrill minority do not speak for the silent majority ; the ScotsNats found that out in the referendum ..the loyal members of the LP are not going to allow a Leftist loser like Corbyn to hijack their Party and lead it into election oblivion ...they'll get their act together and put this fire out
"Rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists."
...and that's just the MP's section
Fear of offending potential second preference voters, as you say, has paralysed the two candidates who think they have a chance of beating Corbyn.