If a by-election were to take place in Portsmouth South, or Ribble Valley, they'd be well placed to win it.
I know nothing of the Tory machine in Ribble Valley but the Portsmouth LDs are even better placed organisationally than Eastleigh where they played a key part in the party holding on.
Rudd is surely going to win this now as key minister who was involved in deposing him switches from Gillard. All on live tv. Bless Australian Labor - quality entertainment.
Sun gets a telling off from the PCC for conflating the ECHR and the EU:
"It is an important role of newspapers and magazines to publicise and analyse judicial rulings, but this public interest is served only insofar as such reports inform rather than mislead. While a headline, by its nature, can only ever summarise, it was inaccurate for the subheadline of the article to have attributed to the European Union responsibility for a decision by domestic courts based on the European Convention on Human Rights. The newspaper did not dispute that it had been made aware of similar errors on other occasions. This is a clear failure to take appropriate care over the accuracy of the coverage and a breach of the Editors Code, which was particularly significant at a time when the roles of both the EU and the Convention were a matter of major public debate."
@Sean_F I feel much happier about my pair of bets on UKIP's vote share having seen that comment, given that you obviously have a considerable emotional tug towards UKIP.
If a by-election were to take place in Portsmouth South, or Ribble Valley, they'd be well placed to win it.
I know nothing of the Tory machine in Ribble Valley but the Portsmouth LDs are even better placed organisationally than Eastleigh where they played a key part in the party holding on.
To win PortsmouthS, UKIP would need to capture the entire Tory vote and most of the Labour vote. Can't see Cameron sitting this one out.
If a by-election were to take place in Portsmouth South, or Ribble Valley, they'd be well placed to win it.
I know nothing of the Tory machine in Ribble Valley but the Portsmouth LDs are even better placed organisationally than Eastleigh where they played a key part in the party holding on.
We'll get a bit of a read for Ribble Valley soon enough.
Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election date announced
THE date of a Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election has been set for Thursday, August 1.
Christine Conner resigned in May on personal grounds after representing the Littlemoor ward for two years. She had previously represented the Read and Simonstone ward for four years.
A Liberal Democrat source has said that town councillor Jim Shervy is likely to be put forward as their candidate for the election.
The Labour Party has announced its candidate will be Liz Webbe.
Steve Rush, who ran in the county council election, is also standing as an independent.
The Conservatives and UKIP have not yet finalised their candidate selection.
Rudd is surely going to win this now as key minister who was involved in deposing him switches from Gillard. All on live tv. Bless Australian Labor - quality entertainment.
The Guardian correspondent's comment: "I reckon Bill Shorten would always back the winning horse."
These guys make the Tories look like professionals...
The truth is whether UKIP win a seat has very little to do with their national share and everything to do with whether or not they successfully target two or three seats. Personally I think they ought to aim for the highest possible national share rather than trying to win seats because IMO winning 20% would have more of a long-term impact than winning 10% and a couple of seats.
The Greens won a seat in 2010 with 0.9% of the national vote. UKIP are quite a long way behind that, but it does show it's possible.
PS Also demonstrated that winning a seat doesn't necessarily open up a world of opportunity.
Years of working for the Liberal Party and later the LibDems suggest that actually that's true. Electoral comets flash across the psephologists skies every so often, but generally speaking that's all they do. There may be a bit of a change in the neighbouring atmosphere, but not much.
I may be wrong, but I don't see the equivalent of the Labour Party of 100 years ago about at the moment.
Actually I don't know whether that's true in general (although 49% isn't realistic of course). The higher share of the vote they get without winning any seats the more resentment they'll be and it'll boost their rating even further.
Looks like Shorten is Australia's very own Vicar of Bray:
"Shorten says he will serve whomever wins tonight's leadership ballot. His argument is essentially that Kevin Rudd represents the best prospect for Labor of avoiding an electoral wipeout."
When was the last time backing ukip to do well didn't pay off?
They polled way above expectation in the locals
South Shields under or over was 18%, result 25%, and they were a great bet to come second Eastleigh, I think they were the bet in the to come 2nd market and to beat the tories They exceeded expectations in Rotherham and Middlesbrough Was there a bet in Donside?
The Spending Review today just clinches the fact that Osborne is a massive, crowning failure.
He's also hobbling himself and his Party economically right up to the next election.
I know Tories have this touching faith that the economy will somehow spring back magically just because Government spending is cut, but back in the real world this is not the case and we face more stagnation now right up until 2015.
Secretly perhaps Labour knows this and plays along while Osborne tightens the noose around the neck of the Tories' electoral chances.
Ben, you have it completely the wrong way around. Tories know that there has to be cuts in public spending because the economy is not going to magically spring back into shape. The bubble tax revenues of 2003-2007 have gone and they are not coming back. We need to cut our cloth accordingly.
Actually I don't know whether that's true in general (although 49% isn't realistic of course). The higher share of the vote they get without winning any seats the more resentment they'll be and it'll boost their rating even further.
You think the lib dems get some kind of 'resentment' bonus whenever they poll well above what they would get if it wasn't FPTP? Perhaps that's Clegg's secret plan this time around? Or perhaps not.
*chuckles*
We didn't see much evidence of the public outrage when AV got shot down in flames. Of course it was a "miserable little compromise" and Clegg was the unpopular face of it yet it has hardly hastened the coming of PR.
When was the last time backing ukip to do well didn't pay off?
They polled way above expectation in the locals
South Shields under or over was 18%, result 25%, and they were a great bet to come second Eastleigh, I think they were the bet in the to come 2nd market and to beat the tories They exceeded expectations in Rotherham and Middlesbrough Was there a bet in Donside?
To not lose their deposit in Donside? If there was that wasn't a winner.
The kippers in Eastleigh had the Huhne debacle, Clegg busy digging a hole with Rennard, the amusingly hopeless tory Maria Hutchings AND a good candidate in Diane James. Yet despite that perfect storm still no MP.
If a by-election were to take place in Portsmouth South, or Ribble Valley, they'd be well placed to win it.
I know nothing of the Tory machine in Ribble Valley but the Portsmouth LDs are even better placed organisationally than Eastleigh where they played a key part in the party holding on.
We'll get a bit of a read for Ribble Valley soon enough.
Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election date announced
THE date of a Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election has been set for Thursday, August 1.
Christine Conner resigned in May on personal grounds after representing the Littlemoor ward for two years. She had previously represented the Read and Simonstone ward for four years.
A Liberal Democrat source has said that town councillor Jim Shervy is likely to be put forward as their candidate for the election.
The Labour Party has announced its candidate will be Liz Webbe.
Steve Rush, who ran in the county council election, is also standing as an independent.
The Conservatives and UKIP have not yet finalised their candidate selection.
I appreciate what Mr Baxter is trying to do, but iisn't he sitting on a bit of an informational black hole here? While we have a pretty good idea of where the LibDems, Tories, or Labour, win votes, but UKIP is being scaled from 3%. I'd also be willing to bet that the votes that UKIP has added since have a considerably different character to those it had before - more immigration, less Europe, more protest, more anti-establishment.
It now adds an additional factor to allow for the fact that seats do not all behave identically at a general election, but instead there is natural variation between them. These projections now allow for that natural variation, which increases the chances of UKIP winning some seats, even at low support levels
So, as I understand it, the starting point is a uniform swing or some similarly unform projection (if I get a chance, I shall check) with now some random variation. However, I think it is difficult to get the right the 'random' factor without any actual data on it. Based on 3% at 2010, and projections ranging up to 38% (nothing short of a revolution), it will make a mockery of any unformity.
If you look at the UKIP 34%+, you can see that the uniformity factor hjelps UKIP too much; they get ~ 34-8% is every seat, while the Tory votes scales down similarly evenly. No party gets 34% without stacking up some votes in safe seats. The 3% > 34% vote change leaves very few ultra-safe seats allowable within its methodology.
I might even do my own projection, that could be fun.
The Spending Review today just clinches the fact that Osborne is a massive, crowning failure.
He's also hobbling himself and his Party economically right up to the next election.
I know Tories have this touching faith that the economy will somehow spring back magically just because Government spending is cut, but back in the real world this is not the case and we face more stagnation now right up until 2015.
Secretly perhaps Labour knows this and plays along while Osborne tightens the noose around the neck of the Tories' electoral chances.
Ben, you have it completely the wrong way around. Tories know that there has to be cuts in public spending because the economy is not going to magically spring back into shape. The bubble tax revenues of 2003-2007 have gone and they are not coming back. We need to cut our cloth accordingly.
You'll need to run that by your hapless chancellor because that is not what Osborne or most Tory MPs and Tory press commentators think.
Following the comments about Richard Nabavi's absence recently I dropped him an email asking whether he was was okay. This is the response:-
"Thanks for the thought! Yes, I'm fine - I've been on a walking holiday in the Sud Tirol/Alto Adige (which is absolutely lovely, BTW - as SeanT said last year - strongly recommended for scenery, food, wine, and very charming places to stay). I did have my smartphone with me, but for some inexplicable reason my wife takes a dim view of me spending my time blogging when we're on holiday!
If a by-election were to take place in Portsmouth South, or Ribble Valley, they'd be well placed to win it.
I know nothing of the Tory machine in Ribble Valley but the Portsmouth LDs are even better placed organisationally than Eastleigh where they played a key part in the party holding on.
We'll get a bit of a read for Ribble Valley soon enough.
Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election date announced
THE date of a Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election has been set for Thursday, August 1.
Christine Conner resigned in May on personal grounds after representing the Littlemoor ward for two years. She had previously represented the Read and Simonstone ward for four years.
A Liberal Democrat source has said that town councillor Jim Shervy is likely to be put forward as their candidate for the election.
The Labour Party has announced its candidate will be Liz Webbe.
Steve Rush, who ran in the county council election, is also standing as an independent.
The Conservatives and UKIP have not yet finalised their candidate selection.
Littlemoor ward 2011 result LD 361/305 Con 343/321 Lab 226/193
Ward is part of Clitheroe CC division May result Con 1061 Ind Steve Rush 1016 LD 932 Lab 378
Steve Rush stood as UKIP candidate in Salthill ward in 2011
IMO UKIP have no chance in this by election unless they can field Steve Rush as their candidate .
So very big local factors in play for a local by election. Ah well, I'd still be very surprised if the kippers didn't put some serious effort into it as the area as a whole would seem to be more favourable than most for them should a westminster by-election happen. Even if it didn't it still looks reasonably fertile territory for them in 2015
"If the public had been in charge of the process, there would have been broad agreement on the top candidates for protection (NHS, Education, Policing and Pensions) and the top candidates for severe cuts (Environment, Overseas Aid).
The battleground areas, in which there are substantial groups of voters both who want to see major cuts and who want to see spending protected, are Defence and Welfare and Benefits."
Australian political correspondents wondering whether the governor general will ask Parliament to confirm whether Rudd has support in Parliament if he becomes Labor leader.
If the Independents who've just announced their retirements decide to abstain in such a vote Rudd may have trouble winning. The election may happen earlier than 14th September.
If a by-election were to take place in Portsmouth South, or Ribble Valley, they'd be well placed to win it.
I know nothing of the Tory machine in Ribble Valley but the Portsmouth LDs are even better placed organisationally than Eastleigh where they played a key part in the party holding on.
We'll get a bit of a read for Ribble Valley soon enough.
Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election date announced
THE date of a Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election has been set for Thursday, August 1.
Christine Conner resigned in May on personal grounds after representing the Littlemoor ward for two years. She had previously represented the Read and Simonstone ward for four years.
A Liberal Democrat source has said that town councillor Jim Shervy is likely to be put forward as their candidate for the election.
The Labour Party has announced its candidate will be Liz Webbe.
Steve Rush, who ran in the county council election, is also standing as an independent.
The Conservatives and UKIP have not yet finalised their candidate selection.
Littlemoor ward 2011 result LD 361/305 Con 343/321 Lab 226/193
Ward is part of Clitheroe CC division May result Con 1061 Ind Steve Rush 1016 LD 932 Lab 378
Steve Rush stood as UKIP candidate in Salthill ward in 2011
IMO UKIP have no chance in this by election unless they can field Steve Rush as their candidate .
So very big local factors in play for a local by election. Ah well, I'd still be very surprised if the kippers didn't put some effort into it as the area as a whole would seem to be more favourable than most for them should a westminster by-election happen.
A UKIP candidate standing against Steve Rush would simply split the UKIP/Protest vote and lead to a LD win . If they can persuade him to stand as UKIP then they would probably be favourites though we don't know if more of his vote in May came in the other wards which are part of the CC division rather than in Littlemoor .
When was the last time backing ukip to do well didn't pay off?
They polled way above expectation in the locals
South Shields under or over was 18%, result 25%, and they were a great bet to come second Eastleigh, I think they were the bet in the to come 2nd market and to beat the tories They exceeded expectations in Rotherham and Middlesbrough Was there a bet in Donside?
To not lose their deposit in Donside? If there was that wasn't a winner.
The kippers in Eastleigh had the Huhne debacle, Clegg busy digging a hole with Rennard, the amusingly hopeless tory Maria Hutchings AND a good candidate in Diane James. Yet despite that perfect storm still no MP.
There wasn't a market in them keeping or losing their deposit in Donside.
They have been the value bet in all recent elections.
It's amazing how being behind in the polls with an election looming concentrates the minds of fractious and split parties into infighting and toppling leaders. No doubt Cammie is glad his backbenchers would never dream of such a thing. ;^ )
Osborne was immediately subjected to an online backlash, with Twitter awash with comments criticising the seemingly staged shot.
One user, Michael J Ball wrote: "The old 'eat a burger to show you're in touch' ruse. Just before you further slash public services & leave a generation unemployed."
Richard Simcox tweeted: “What a cringingly staged look-I'm-just-like-you-no-really-I-honestly-am pic.”
And Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls tweeted: "George, what are you eating? That's not marathon-fuel."
Twitter user Chris Ship added: “The roast pheasant is on a silver tray just out of camera shot!”
And Tom McArthur wrote: “he doesn't even put his chips in the burger box lid. How can this man be trusted?”
A good choice. The problem is that both bridges - technological tour de forces as they might be - pale into insignificance compared to the rail bridge alongside. The Forth Bridge is just another suspension bridge. The new bridge will just be yet another cable-stayed bridge, despite its length. In any other place either bridge would be noteworthy, but not when situated next to their neighbour.
The rail bridge takes splendour to a whole new level. It is magnificent, mesmerising structure that is unparalleled in the world. It is one of the few bridges that I have known people not interested in engineering to take long journeys to visit (another is the Millau Viaduct).
On a related matter, I wonder how long it will be before the old (current) suspension bridge is closed and dismantled; it has some rather serious problems. And as the new bridge is being constructed without a pedestrian route, will it mean that pedestrians and cyclists will no longer be able to cross the Forth?
In fact, has anyone ever tried dismantling a suspension bridge of the size of the Forth Road Bridge?
The rail bridge takes splendour to a whole new level. It is magnificent, mesmerising structure that is unparalleled in the world. It is one of the few bridges that I have known people not interested in engineering to take long journeys to visit (another is the Millau Viaduct).
Yes - a spectacular (over?) reaction to the tragedy on the Tay to the north. I always looked out for the piers from the original bridge when crossing the rebuilt Tay Bridge. I also remember seeing the Forth Road Bridge going up from the Queensferry ferry. I think 'Queensferry' a good choice too - much as it would have been fun to troll the Nats with 'St Margaret's Crossing', misunderstanding which 'Margaret' it refers to!
Just occurred to me that the UK political system could be put under its biggest strain ever if the LDs and UKIP win a third of the vote between them at the next election but only take about 30 seats which is less than 5%.
If a by-election were to take place in Portsmouth South, or Ribble Valley, they'd be well placed to win it.
I know nothing of the Tory machine in Ribble Valley but the Portsmouth LDs are even better placed organisationally than Eastleigh where they played a key part in the party holding on.
We'll get a bit of a read for Ribble Valley soon enough.
Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election date announced
THE date of a Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election has been set for Thursday, August 1.
Christine Conner resigned in May on personal grounds after representing the Littlemoor ward for two years. She had previously represented the Read and Simonstone ward for four years.
A Liberal Democrat source has said that town councillor Jim Shervy is likely to be put forward as their candidate for the election.
The Labour Party has announced its candidate will be Liz Webbe.
Steve Rush, who ran in the county council election, is also standing as an independent.
The Conservatives and UKIP have not yet finalised their candidate selection.
Littlemoor ward 2011 result LD 361/305 Con 343/321 Lab 226/193
Ward is part of Clitheroe CC division May result Con 1061 Ind Steve Rush 1016 LD 932 Lab 378
Steve Rush stood as UKIP candidate in Salthill ward in 2011
IMO UKIP have no chance in this by election unless they can field Steve Rush as their candidate .
So very big local factors in play for a local by election. Ah well, I'd still be very surprised if the kippers didn't put some effort into it as the area as a whole would seem to be more favourable than most for them should a westminster by-election happen.
A UKIP candidate standing against Steve Rush would simply split the UKIP/Protest vote and lead to a LD win . If they can persuade him to stand as UKIP then they would probably be favourites though we don't know if more of his vote in May came in the other wards which are part of the CC division rather than in Littlemoor .
It's pretty hard to find out why he actually resigned from UKIP.
Under what banner will former UKIP candidate now stand?
Published on 25/06/2013 20:33
As I was involved with UKIP at the time Steve Rush decided to quit, and am fully aware of why he resigned, then, like Bruce Dowles, I will find it very interesting to see under which banner Steve stands should he decide to be a candidate in the Littlemoor by-election.
The closest he has come to being elected to office is as an Independent.
I am reminded of his words when he had discussed whether principles should always come before politics, or are there times when one can consider politics to be more important than principles.
Steve should maintain his integrity; the people of Clitheroe seem happy to have him as their champion.
Kevin Rudd is now leader of the Australian Labor Party but he isn't prime minister yet. The governor general may ask him to prove that he has the support of Parliament.
The rail bridge takes splendour to a whole new level. It is magnificent, mesmerising structure that is unparalleled in the world. It is one of the few bridges that I have known people not interested in engineering to take long journeys to visit (another is the Millau Viaduct).
Yes - a spectacular (over?) reaction to the tragedy on the Tay to the north. I always looked out for the piers from the original bridge when crossing the rebuilt Tay Bridge. I also remember seeing the Forth Road Bridge going up from the Queensferry ferry. I think 'Queensferry' a good choice too - much as it would have been fun to troll the Nats with 'St Margaret's Crossing', misunderstanding which 'Margaret' it refers to!
I have a brilliant book of photos detailing the construction of the Forth (rail) bridge. An absolutely fantastic achievement. One picture shows a man sitting at the end of a plank that had been strapped to the end of the steelwork, leaving him sitting over the water far below.
At uni I was told about the apocryphal 'Bouch Factor' to which the Forth bridge was built. It was one of the first major steel bridges to be built, and there was great concern about this new material. After the Tay disaster, they built it three times stronger than it needed to be, both as a public confidence measure and as a sign they were using a new and untried material. This became known as the 'Bouch Factor' - basically designing something to be far stronger than it needed to be.
A term I have seen in old engineering books as well, but which has sadly dropped out of use as knowledge and technology has progressed.
If a by-election were to take place in Portsmouth South, or Ribble Valley, they'd be well placed to win it.
I know nothing of the Tory machine in Ribble Valley but the Portsmouth LDs are even better placed organisationally than Eastleigh where they played a key part in the party holding on.
We'll get a bit of a read for Ribble Valley soon enough.
Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election date announced
THE date of a Ribble Valley Borough Council by-election has been set for Thursday, August 1.
Christine Conner resigned in May on personal grounds after representing the Littlemoor ward for two years. She had previously represented the Read and Simonstone ward for four years.
A Liberal Democrat source has said that town councillor Jim Shervy is likely to be put forward as their candidate for the election.
The Labour Party has announced its candidate will be Liz Webbe.
Steve Rush, who ran in the county council election, is also standing as an independent.
The Conservatives and UKIP have not yet finalised their candidate selection.
Littlemoor ward 2011 result LD 361/305 Con 343/321 Lab 226/193
Ward is part of Clitheroe CC division May result Con 1061 Ind Steve Rush 1016 LD 932 Lab 378
Steve Rush stood as UKIP candidate in Salthill ward in 2011
IMO UKIP have no chance in this by election unless they can field Steve Rush as their candidate .
So very big local factors in play for a local by election. Ah well, I'd still be very surprised if the kippers didn't put some effort into it as the area as a whole would seem to be more favourable than most for them should a westminster by-election happen.
A UKIP candidate standing against Steve Rush would simply split the UKIP/Protest vote and lead to a LD win . If they can persuade him to stand as UKIP then they would probably be favourites though we don't know if more of his vote in May came in the other wards which are part of the CC division rather than in Littlemoor .
It's pretty hard to find out why he actually resigned from UKIP.
Under what banner will former UKIP candidate now stand?
Published on 25/06/2013 20:33
As I was involved with UKIP at the time Steve Rush decided to quit, and am fully aware of why he resigned, then, like Bruce Dowles, I will find it very interesting to see under which banner Steve stands should he decide to be a candidate in the Littlemoor by-election.
The closest he has come to being elected to office is as an Independent.
I am reminded of his words when he had discussed whether principles should always come before politics, or are there times when one can consider politics to be more important than principles.
Steve should maintain his integrity; the people of Clitheroe seem happy to have him as their champion.
Thanks for diggng out that letter from the local press . The statement that the people of clitheroes seem happy to have him as their local champion is a slight exaggeration as he did not win either standing as UKIP or an Independent . It does though indicate that a UKIP candidate in opposition to him would ensure neither will win .
Interesting - Rudd enters alone, Gillard with posse.
Secret ballot which the commentators reckon favours Rudd...
Just shows what total wimps UK Labour are.
The charitable might describe them as 'disciplined'.....lets face it, they tested 'loyal to a bad leader' to destruction under Brown....
Can only speak for myself. I hinted at the time (here and elsewhere) that I was open to supporting a challenge, but when none appeared I wasn't up for a "let's replace Gordon with someone, we'll work it out later" revolt. In the event I think we did as well as we could reasonably have expected in mid-crisis after 13 years in power, and I've no regrets at all for not supporting a headless revolt.
A good choice. The problem is that both bridges - technological tour de forces as they might be - pale into insignificance compared to the rail bridge alongside. The Forth Bridge is just another suspension bridge. The new bridge will just be yet another cable-stayed bridge, despite its length. In any other place either bridge would be noteworthy, but not when situated next to their neighbour.
The rail bridge takes splendour to a whole new level. It is magnificent, mesmerising structure that is unparalleled in the world. It is one of the few bridges that I have known people not interested in engineering to take long journeys to visit (another is the Millau Viaduct).
On a related matter, I wonder how long it will be before the old (current) suspension bridge is closed and dismantled; it has some rather serious problems. And as the new bridge is being constructed without a pedestrian route, will it mean that pedestrians and cyclists will no longer be able to cross the Forth?
In fact, has anyone ever tried dismantling a suspension bridge of the size of the Forth Road Bridge?
What are the problems, last I saw said that it was much better than expected and had a long life left.
Comments
"It is an important role of newspapers and magazines to publicise and analyse judicial rulings, but this public interest is served only insofar as such reports inform rather than mislead. While a headline, by its nature, can only ever summarise, it was inaccurate for the subheadline of the article to have attributed to the European Union responsibility for a decision by domestic courts based on the European Convention on Human Rights. The newspaper did not dispute that it had been made aware of similar errors on other occasions. This is a clear failure to take appropriate care over the accuracy of the coverage and a breach of the Editors Code, which was particularly significant at a time when the roles of both the EU and the Convention were a matter of major public debate."
http://ukhumanrightsblog.com/2013/06/26/the-sun-gets-regulator-reprimand-and-apologises-for-misleading-on-european-human-rights/
We'll get a bit of a read for Ribble Valley soon enough.
These guys make the Tories look like professionals...
I may be wrong, but I don't see the equivalent of the Labour Party of 100 years ago about at the moment.
Actually I don't know whether that's true in general (although 49% isn't realistic of course). The higher share of the vote they get without winning any seats the more resentment they'll be and it'll boost their rating even further.
"Shorten says he will serve whomever wins tonight's leadership ballot. His argument is essentially that Kevin Rudd represents the best prospect for Labor of avoiding an electoral wipeout."
They polled way above expectation in the locals
South Shields under or over was 18%, result 25%, and they were a great bet to come second
Eastleigh, I think they were the bet in the to come 2nd market and to beat the tories
They exceeded expectations in Rotherham and Middlesbrough
Was there a bet in Donside?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/
Interesting - Rudd enters alone, Gillard with posse.
Secret ballot which the commentators reckon favours Rudd...
You have to admire their courage.
*chuckles*
We didn't see much evidence of the public outrage when AV got shot down in flames. Of course it was a "miserable little compromise" and Clegg was the unpopular face of it yet it has hardly hastened the coming of PR.
The kippers in Eastleigh had the Huhne debacle, Clegg busy digging a hole with Rennard, the amusingly hopeless tory Maria Hutchings AND a good candidate in Diane James. Yet despite that perfect storm still no MP.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/new-forth-bridge-named-queensferry-crossing-1-2975344
Littlemoor ward 2011 result LD 361/305 Con 343/321 Lab 226/193
Ward is part of Clitheroe CC division May result Con 1061 Ind Steve Rush 1016 LD 932 Lab 378
Steve Rush stood as UKIP candidate in Salthill ward in 2011
IMO UKIP have no chance in this by election unless they can field Steve Rush as their candidate .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-26/live-blog-labor-leadership/4782312
If you look at the UKIP 34%+, you can see that the uniformity factor hjelps UKIP too much; they get ~ 34-8% is every seat, while the Tory votes scales down similarly evenly. No party gets 34% without stacking up some votes in safe seats. The 3% > 34% vote change leaves very few ultra-safe seats allowable within its methodology.
I might even do my own projection, that could be fun.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/
"Thanks for the thought! Yes, I'm fine - I've been on a walking holiday in the Sud Tirol/Alto Adige (which is absolutely lovely, BTW - as SeanT said last year - strongly recommended for scenery, food, wine, and very charming places to stay). I did have my smartphone with me, but for some inexplicable reason my wife takes a dim view of me spending my time blogging when we're on holiday!
Normal service will resume now I'm back.
That's what all the opinion polls suggest.
It was obvious Brown was going to lose in 2010 but no-one in the Labour Party had the balls to get rid of him.
The same is true of John Major and the Tories in the run up to 1997.
Ward is part of Clitheroe CC division May result Con 1061 Ind Steve Rush 1016 LD 932 Lab 378
Steve Rush stood as UKIP candidate in Salthill ward in 2011
IMO UKIP have no chance in this by election unless they can field Steve Rush as their candidate .
So very big local factors in play for a local by election. Ah well, I'd still be very surprised if the kippers didn't put some serious effort into it as the area as a whole would seem to be more favourable than most for them should a westminster by-election happen. Even if it didn't it still looks reasonably fertile territory for them in 2015
The danger of toppling Julia Gillard is that a lot of female voters may be disgruntled and refuse to support the party in September.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/06/26/defence-welfare-battle-ground/
"If the public had been in charge of the process, there would have been broad agreement on the top candidates for protection (NHS, Education, Policing and Pensions) and the top candidates for severe cuts (Environment, Overseas Aid).
The battleground areas, in which there are substantial groups of voters both who want to see major cuts and who want to see spending protected, are Defence and Welfare and Benefits."
If the Independents who've just announced their retirements decide to abstain in such a vote Rudd may have trouble winning. The election may happen earlier than 14th September.
A UKIP candidate standing against Steve Rush would simply split the UKIP/Protest vote and lead to a LD win . If they can persuade him to stand as UKIP then they would probably be favourites though we don't know if more of his vote in May came in the other wards which are part of the CC division rather than in Littlemoor .
"Osborne and the half-Eton burger
Chancellor blasted for tweeting 'staged' fast food pic
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4984609/Osborne-tweet-pic-backlash.html#ixzz2XJTFNWOn
They have been the value bet in all recent elections.
But they keep getting written off all the same
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01bxqtw
They never ever learn.
A free pasty with every fop burger? ;^ )
The rail bridge takes splendour to a whole new level. It is magnificent, mesmerising structure that is unparalleled in the world. It is one of the few bridges that I have known people not interested in engineering to take long journeys to visit (another is the Millau Viaduct).
On a related matter, I wonder how long it will be before the old (current) suspension bridge is closed and dismantled; it has some rather serious problems. And as the new bridge is being constructed without a pedestrian route, will it mean that pedestrians and cyclists will no longer be able to cross the Forth?
In fact, has anyone ever tried dismantling a suspension bridge of the size of the Forth Road Bridge?
When was the last time backing ukip to do well didn't pay off?
My losing political bets in 2013 have been on UKIP
They failed in Eastleigh
They failed to get 30%+ in South Shields
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4984018/Nick-Clegg-Kung-Fu-Panda-favourite-film.html
Rudd/Gillard announcement imminent.
Gillard: 45
It's pretty hard to find out why he actually resigned from UKIP.
David Miliband LOL !
But the other pictures are amazing as well. Ones like this:
http://www.nas.gov.uk/images/newsStory071004.jpg
At uni I was told about the apocryphal 'Bouch Factor' to which the Forth bridge was built. It was one of the first major steel bridges to be built, and there was great concern about this new material. After the Tay disaster, they built it three times stronger than it needed to be, both as a public confidence measure and as a sign they were using a new and untried material. This became known as the 'Bouch Factor' - basically designing something to be far stronger than it needed to be.
A term I have seen in old engineering books as well, but which has sadly dropped out of use as knowledge and technology has progressed.
Thanks for diggng out that letter from the local press . The statement that the people of clitheroes seem happy to have him as their local champion is a slight exaggeration as he did not win either standing as UKIP or an Independent . It does though indicate that a UKIP candidate in opposition to him would ensure neither will win .