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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Revised seat projection approach from Martin Baxter points to UKIP starting to win Commons seats on a 16% share not 23%
As has been highlighted a fair bit recently UKIP have a real challenge converting the substantial poll shares now being reported into seats because of the way the first past the post system operates with the smaller parties.
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A UKIP/Tory coalition has to be a possibility despite the swivel eyed loons comments. This assumes a UKIP vote is not seen as a wasted vote.
Crazy things happening in Oz last hour or so, with the removed PM Rudd trying to get back. Unions (who control Labor in Oz) trying to avoid secret ballot at 9am tomorrow after caucus confirms a spill is on and threatening those who support him to be deselected.
Does anyone have a basis for this ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
Abbott saying it in parliament right now. AWU boss said PM Rudd polls collapsed and Rudd should be replaced. Polls worse but unions saying a different story, what about the people not the unions?
Meanwhile, back in the real world, UKIP's polling is falling.
In those conditions, UKIP's rise actually benefits Labour. With an 8 point gap between Labour and the Conservatives and UKIP polling 14%, the seat gap is 136. With the same 8 point gap and UKIP polling 24%, the seat gap grows to 157.
"Caledonia Bridge, Queensferry Crossing and St Margaret's Crossing are reported to be the most popular."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-23047293
Funnily enough "300 Years of Unionist Oppression" didn't make it onto the ballot......
Meanwhile UKIP back on 11 in YouGov - lowest since early May and the locals boost.
Education Minister Leighton Andrews has resigned following a row over his defence of a school which faced closure under his own surplus places policy.
Mr Andrews had been seen holding a banner in support of Pentre Primary School in his Rhondda constituency.
And First Minister Carwyn Jones failed to defend him from opposition claims he undermined his own policy.
Mr Jones had previously rebuked Mr Andrews for his actions in defending a local hospital from possible cuts.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-23056173
Welsh Government Publishes Advice on How to Have A Career in the Sex Industry
The First Minister has launched an investigation as the Welsh Government is heavily criticised for offering career advice on how to earn hundreds of pounds a night working in the sex industry.
Before it was suddenly removed, the Business Wales website included practical tips on becoming a stripper and running a lap dancing club, erotic boutique and escort agency.
They were among hundreds of “start up business ideas” listed on the website which allowed job hunters to download free “business startup factsheets”.
Helpful hints included that strippers and lap dancers “can expect to earn an average £232 per evening”, with annual incomes that “can range from £24,000 to £48,000”.
Users interested in setting up an escort agency are advised that “the escorts provide companionship to the client when attending events such as a formal dinner or the theatre”.
Clients typically include single businessmen and women, according to the Welsh Government guide, who hire an escort to accompany them to events and holidays.
“Escort agencies usually have several escorts on their books. Agencies charge escorts an ‘introduction fee’ of between 25% and 55% of what the client pays to the escort,” the factsheet says.
“Clients typically pay between £120-£250 per hour for an escort’s time and company.”
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/welsh-government-publishes-advice-how-4710231
It is to be wondered which Labour assembly member has the relevant experience.
The average primary school teacher in England earned £27,832 in 2011, much more than in France, Spain and Italy. Scottish primary school teachers take home even more – £30,168.
Yet English primary teachers teach for just 684 hours a year, compared to 936 in France and 770 in Italy.
It means that while an English primary teacher earns £40.69 per hour spent in the classroom, a French teacher gets just £22.27.
Only three other countries in Europe have higher pay rates for primary school teachers.
The revelation comes in a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which represents industrialised nations.
It will add to concerns that public sector staff are hugely overpaid compared to their competitors.
Our GPs are also among the best remunerated in the world.Despite the findings, a poll yesterday by teaching union NASUWT revealed that 53 per cent of teachers say their job satisfaction has fallen over the last year.
Some 78 per cent said their biggest concern was workload and 45 per cent were unhappy with pay levels. Teaching unions are preparing for nationwide strike action before the end of the year.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2348127/Teachers-England-best-paid-world-They-earn-spend-time-classroom.html#ixzz2XIYhV0kv
British pupils spend far less time learning core subjects like the 3Rs and science than their counterparts in other Western nations, the study revealed.
Secondary school pupils in the UK spend less than half their time on reading, writing, literature, mathematics, science and foreign languages - one of the few countries to structure the school day like this.
But in countries like France and Ireland, students spend approaching 60 per cent of their time on such key subjects.
The OECD report found that British pupils spend just 46 per cent on ‘core subjects’ - mathematics, science, modern languages and reading, writing and literature.
By contrast, French pupils spend 57 per cent of their time on these subjects, while in Germany they spend 54 per cent of their time and in Ireland 56 per cent.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2348618/British-pupils-miss-3Rs-Children-spend-time-core-subjects-Western-countries.html#ixzz2XIZJhjKH
Setting out plans to cut public spending by £11.5 billion in 2015-16, the Chancellor will impose a further squeeze on the wages of six million workers by abolishing incremental pay. He will also tell councils to pool their budgets to cut costs; flesh out proposals to cap spending on housing and incapacity benefits; and unveil a five-year programme of infrastructure spending.
About 60,000 expatriate pensioners will lose their winter fuel allowance under a new “temperature test”. Anyone living in a region of Europe with warmer average temperatures than the warmest part of Britain will forfeit the annual payment, worth up to £300.
The change will not come into effect until after 2015 because of David Cameron’s pledge not to touch pensioner benefits in this Parliament.
Lawrence Family To Ask May For Public Inquiry
The parents of the murdered student will urge the Home Secretary to launch a public inquiry into the latest "smear" claims.
The Lawrence family will meet the Home Secretary to ask for a new public inquiry into claims that police secretly hunted for information to smear their campaign.
Michael Mansfield QC, who represents the family of murdered student Stephen Lawrence, said they also want the inquiry to investigate all cases of undercover activity carried out by Scotland Yard's former Special Demonstration Squad throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
It follows claims by one of the squad's former undercover officers, Peter Francis, that he was told to dig up "dirt" on the Lawrence family, friend Duwayne Brooks, who witnessed the murder, and campaigners shortly after Stephen's death in 1993
Allegations have also been made that officers secretly bugged meetings they held with Mr Brooks and his lawyers.
Earlier this week Mrs May said Mr Francis's claims would instead be investigated in two ongoing inquiries - one into the undercover operations of the Special Demonstration Squad and another into alleged police corruption in the original Lawrence inquiry.
After the announcement, Mr Lawrence said he had "no confidence" that these would get to the bottom of the issue.
http://news.sky.com/story/1108171/lawrence-family-to-ask-may-for-public-inquiry
It is a discussion that Labour are having trouble producing anything coherent on. Labour's response today will be looked at very closely. It is also a discussion in which UKIP takes no part at all given their lack of Westminster representation. I suspect that the obvious downward share on their support will continue.
When did UKIP last poll less than the Lib Dems? Before the locals I think. I would not be at all surprised to see that within the next week.
Given that the Brits don't take the Euros remotely seriously I wonder what sort of a boost they will get from that in Westminster polling. I think Tim's and antifrank's bets here offer far better value than OGH's. Politics is going to get increasingly serious over the next couple of years and this always squeezes the minority parties.
Julia Gillard calls leadership ballot for 7pm Canberra time tonight. Extraordinary. All live updates here http://gu.com/p/3gpex/tw
What's interesting is that our teachers tend to be much younger than they are elsewhere. If teaching is the cushy, long holiday, over-paid profession Gove, the Mail and right wingers in general like to imply, why is it that we lose so many experienced teachers?
http://labourlist.org/2013/06/ken-clarke-gordon-brown-and-why-balls-and-miliband-are-wrong-to-back-tory-spending-plans/
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/owxdo60pb6/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-250613.pdf
Were it not 2yr money I would even think of having a flirt myself.
It is also important to know if classroom assistants in the UK are classed as 'teachers'; in some cases I have seen them included, in others not. They also make comparisons to other countries difficult.
One thing springs to mind: education (especially primary schools) are dominated by women (three-quarters of all teachers), could mothers taking long breaks from their jobs to bring up their own children be skewing the results?
How does the table in 1.3.2 compare to other European countries?
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/182407/DFE-RR151.pdf
Perhaps the fops should bang on about Europe and immigration more? That always ends well for them. ;^ )
What they cannot cope with is plans that fall apart at the first hint of a challenge or make very little sense. The mixed messages of whether they will borrow more or not, whether they will restore the tory cuts or not, whether any new spending requires to be "funded" by cuts elsewhere and where that "where" might be are causing them more difficulties.
Personally, I think this is because they have not done enough homework over the last couple of years. They need to work out what their priorities are for spending and what is not a priority.
Incidentally, I think you are underestimating the implications of Osborne's statement today. It is not simply the cuts but the attempts to control managed expenditure that are important. This is the part of government expenditure that has been rising since the election and is usually referred to as the "automatic stabilisers". Making it clear that this spending will not be allowed to increase to reflect the economic situation is a radical change which will involve more caps on benefits etc. than we have seen so far.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCovGqMiZyA
What could possibly go wrong? ;^ )
Perhaps the fops should bang on about Europe and immigration more? That always ends well for them. ;^ )
I think society is changing in what it wants from its politics that much is obvious. We now have 2x centre-right parties espousing broadly similar ideas. That battle will be fought on competence and on competence right now the Cons are winning.
As for the Kippers, I have long said and continue to believe that of the, say, 15% now, 50% of that will go back to the Cons leaving mid to high single figure % for the Kippers (at best) in the GE, of which some will be ex-Lab.
So the issue still remains what the 2010 Lab=LD contingent does.
Kevin Rudd to speak in the next 15 minutes on the leadership #spill
Take Eastleigh, Doesn't look like the kippers will be getting as amusing a candidate as Maria Hutchings to go up against in 2015.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2013/jun/25/uk-primary-school-teachers-youngest-oecd
About 60% of UK primary school teachers are 40 or younger, and 31% are 30 or younger. Across OECD member nations an average of 13% of primary school teachers are under 30.
In secondary schools only Brazil and Indonesia have more teachers 40 or below than the UK, and only Indonesia has more under 30.
In Italy, 85% of primary teachers are over 40, in Sweden 72% and in Germany 71%. In Finland, Germany, Austria, Spain and Sweden fewer than 10% of secondary school teachers are 30 or younger. The OECD data covers both state and independent schools.
In its analysis the OECD reported: "The relatively young teaching force in the UK stands in stark contrast to the situation in many European countries where inflexible employment conditions coupled with declining youth populations have led to ageing teacher populations."
Andreas Schleicher, the OECD's deputy director for education and skills, said there were advantages and disadvantages for the UK. Younger teachers were more likely to have more recent, up-to-date training, while older teachers were more experienced.
Part of the reason may be the structure of teachers' pay in the UK. In England the starting salary for a primary school is above the OECD average, and the salary with 10 years' experience is about £6,000 higher. "But in England, teachers' salaries at the top of the scale do not increase when a teacher has had more than 10 years' experience, so teachers salaries eventually fall behind the OECD average of $45,602 [£29,484]," the OECD noted.
On topic, UKIP are clearly drifting down a bit but they've shown their potential if anther favourable event comes along.
I'm not sure that there's a problem here.
Regardless, the battle in 2015 is going to be on trust with the tories trying to hammer labour, little Ed and Balls all day every day that they can't be trusted with the economy again after the bank crash, while little Ed has to make the case that he can be trusted as PM and that the tories and Osbrowne can't be trusted with public services and growth and that the tories will deliver endless austerity.
That's hardly very speculative since CCHQ and Crosby are quite clearly going to go after little Ed and labour on trust and the economy while little Ed's tory triangulation on cuts shows you that they know perfectly well where the attacks will come from.
7-9% for the kippers hardly looks that far fetched and a lot of people think that's toughly where it will be. Some of it will be ex-Lab but that won't stop Farage and the kippers from driving a great many tory MP's to running about like headless chickens over Europe and immigration yet again. It's what they do best.
The 2010 Lab=LD are just more voters to be won over and no different to those other voters who have abandoned their parties since 2010 or can be won over in 2015. It's just another way of slicing the voter pool who are up for grabs.
Mmmm.
Is there a similar table for the imminent Peoples Assembly surge ??
Rudd runs!
Bless.
http://media.smh.com.au/news/national-times/live-kevin-rudd-fronts-the-media-4521844.html
They make our own dear Tories seem like models of loyalty and discipline, don't they!
http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0624/458577-jim-corr-acc-bank/
FYI, I am Scottish - and you don't need to follow the SNP line to love things Scottish and Scotland. Indeed, holding differing opinions is part of what makes Scotland great - unless you are an SNP drone frightened of your own shadow...
Interesting turn of events in Oz. Who will be Great and Powerful when the dust settles?
As Optimus Prime said before his epic confrontation with Megatron: One shall stand, and one shall fall.
Did anyone see those senate scenes... well done those democrats and the protestors
If a secret ballot is allowed 53-47 to Rudd, if not secret then 53-47 to Gillard.
http://youtu.be/NQ4oUYW2xZo
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/25/gillard-ridiculed-knitting-royal-kangaroo
Sounds like a dangerous bubble.
Labour today will be showcasing their new "yeah but no but yeah but no, but you know what I mean" policy on spending. #SR13
The Euro elections will be key, so betting on their share in a GE this far out is too risky for me.
@GuidoFawkes
I see @BBCRadio4 have scheduled the midday reply to @GeorgeOsborne's #spendingreview from the leader of the opposition, Mr @OwenJones84
FPTP arguably working in the Tories favour.
You would be hard pressed to find a result to more perfectly make the case for PR, though. One of the more delicious ironies being that some of the simpletons who fondly imagine that PR would lead to perennial Lib-Lab government would be faced with a scenario where Con+UKIP had won a majority of the vote...
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100223507/spending-review-five-things-to-watch-when-george-osborne-speaks/
The map doesn't seem to show which UKIP seats fall 1st.
I think UKIP's true value is about 14% at the moment.
I think the most permanent effect of the Euro elections will be to boost UKIP's local government representation on the same day.
If a by-election were to take place in Portsmouth South, or Ribble Valley, they'd be well placed to win it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/26/labor-leadership-spill-gillard-rudd-live
He's also hobbling himself and his Party economically right up to the next election.
I know Tories have this touching faith that the economy will somehow spring back magically just because Government spending is cut, but back in the real world this is not the case and we face more stagnation now right up until 2015.
Secretly perhaps Labour knows this and plays along while Osborne tightens the noose around the neck of the Tories' electoral chances.
One current teacher I know has only been in teaching for around eight years and is already bored teaching essentially the same stuff year after year. She loves the kids, but she knows the subject matter backwards.
Anecdotes, but I wonder how true it is of other teachers?
I can't see any other viable strategy than NF focusing everything on one or two seats to try and get something out of the kipper 'surge'. I somehow doubt Farage would be happy to come out of the 2015 election still not an MP. One of the reasons the kippers are so easily ignored and fade after locals and other elections is that they have no MPs so have to shout from the sidelines or rely on the tories to bang on about Europe or immigration for them.
Actually having an MP isn't a panacea either as the greens and Galloway show you that even managing to win one doesn't guarantee you blanket coverage and some kind of inevitable party upswing afterwards.
Edit: Ah, i see it - now 4-1.
http://search.ladbrokes.com/searchonline/controller?D=weiner&Dx=mode+matchallany&Ntk=all&Ntt=weiner&Ntx=mode+matchallany&Nty=1&search=true&N=4294285622&prevNav=0&className=Politics&eventId=216572240
- what a crap site, really!
PS Also demonstrated that winning a seat doesn't necessarily open up a world of opportunity.
Down to 3/1 though, sorry. The easiest way is just to type 'Weiner' into the search box which only brings up one bet.
Also 3/1 at PP to win the entire race, and 7/4 to win the primary. Since hypothetical polls put any democratic candidate 20+ points ahead, they are basically the same thing.
Labour have the largest chance of winning but are predicted to come 3rd - Massive uncertainty (And thus larger standard deviation on the Lib Dem vote perhaps ?) It is an intriguing seat from a betting perspective also.
Fwiw I think the SNP might be value there but not bet on it yet. Shadsy chatted to me about this seat at the last pb.com meet, he reckons a Lib Dem hold (They are shortest on his site)