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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tim Farron’s LDs the main gainers, leaderless LAB the main
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tim Farron’s LDs the main gainers, leaderless LAB the main losers in the July Local By-Election + overnight results
Hilton, Woodside and Stockethill
Result: Scottish National Party 1,690 (55% +19%), Labour 771 (25% -20%), Conservative 350 (11%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 130 (4% +1%), Liberal Democrats 125 (4% unchanged)
Scottish National Party HOLD on the first count with a majority of 919 (30%) on a swing of 19.5% from Labour to SNP
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But looking at the result, Con + 1, no other changes = "LD main gainers"
LOL!
Edit:
Hilton: LD 4% (unchanged)
Kincorth: LD 7% (-1%)
North Hykeham: LD 3% (no prior candidate)
College: LD 11% (no priority candidate)
Droitwich 11% (-4%)
Where are the gains?
Last night in a variety of contests in Scotland and England the Lib/Dems managed 11%, 11%, 3%, 7% and 4%!!!!!
The only consistant theme from July's local contests is that the SNP reign supreme in Scotland. All three of the seats they have won they have been behind on 2012 results and have taken all three in a landslide.
Can't read too much into it yet, but I do wonder if that will become the theme of this Parliament (the leftwing but not insane voters leaping away from Comrade Corbyn's Communist Cabal).
FPT: Mr. Disraeli, ey up, ye soft southern basterd. Nowt wrong wi' dialect.
Oddly, when I was at university a woman I was talking to thought I might be from the south, though she couldn't place where. My accent is (or was, at least) not overpoweringly Yorkshirish.
Sure it is charming - but sounds like a firm of Solicitors.
But really the headline should be:
"LibDems benefit from a couple of council by-elections in South West London."
Think so? I'm not so sure.
I also liked their car service: Pikop Andropov
A Labour implosion under a Corbyn leadership would, of course, benefit the Conservatives most of all.
(Armley, Pudsey, moortown, Burley. Castleford)
And on that note, Goodnight!
Still six runs to get through.
Edit - There's four of them. I'm finally relaxing!
And one is always a gentleman.
Mr. 63, I'm not so sure. Labour are sheep, as I've said many times before. A full-blown split is hard for me to see (on the other hand, I never saw a potential Corbyn victory coming either).
Yorkshire's a splendid place, so wanting to reminisce about all the excellent things that've occurred there is entirely understandable.
Southam, you can come from behind the sofa now.
Very difficult to break away and be successful. Easier to oppose and fight from within and hope enough come to their senses, as you see it.
Perhaps Corbyn should lead a purge?
PS it is obvious once you think about it
Only now, are dissenting voices raised to say 'Yes, I always knew he was a wrong un'
But, Farron is closer to Corbyn in economic and financial policies. The LD party under Farron is not the centrist party that Clegg presented at the GE.
Has been in the side for more than twice as long as Root and has about half his average.
Root's average is over 55. That puts him in company with only Hobbs, Hammond, Hutton, Suttcliffe and Barrington.
Ski and sliding events will be outside the city at mountain venues currently a few hours’ drive away but reached in 2022 by bullet trains. So, its a mammoth engineering exercise - but no one doubts the Chinese will be on time and on spec.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/627119866705784832
CLP nominations finish tonight, so will be interesting to see final tally. Perhaps people still see Burnham as value as he was so low before, I'd be inclined to discount that as the dynamics have very much changed since he started favourite.
So it's hardly an unprecedented distance from the slopes.
The result might broaden the appeal of Labour by bringing on board currently disaffected voters. It might not win back the current Tory voters, but governments usually find ways of doing that. The Tories are sitting pretty at the moment but they haven't discovered the philosphers' stone. And remember that a lot of those Tory voters came from the Lib Dems. They might well find a way back. They have after all, got very little else to do with their time. They are already making some headway in the bits of London they recently controlled.
The media might have a right wing bias but they have an even bigger tell a good story to keep people interested bias. You can't beat knock'em down only to set 'em up again. "Nobody predicted 2 years ago when Labour was falling apart that under x it would be a united and effective opposition with an opinion poll lead of y points".
It might sound far fetched now, but think what an accurate prediction of the 2015 election would have sounded like in 2010.
You are right. The three local by elections have shown 20% plus swings Lab to SNP compared to an election in 2012 where the two parties were level. That that the NATS are some 40 per cent ahead of Labour compared to less than 30 per cent in the election.
These are just local contests of course but the trend is clear enough. Ceratinly there is no let up in the SNP surge.
As I say its all guesswork but the Corbyn effect is fascinating.
Stage 1, Folkestone to Cobham Services.
The riders emerge from the Channel Tunnel, 3 illegal immigrants hanging off each bicycle...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Only Ave It had the clarity of thought and wisdom to foresee what would happen.
Now that would be entertaining...
The Glasgow bin lorry crash investigation makes grim reading - all entirely avoidable.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-33732335
Why not Qatar?
oooo look a road that needs repair. Pointypolitics
I would have liked to have commented on the previous thread but there you go...
Political parties win from Opposition under one of two circumstances - either you move to the electorate or the electorate moves to you. Blair and Cameron fall into the former category, Thatcher arguably into the latter.
The latter doesn't happen that often - arguably it did in the 70s. Could it happen in the 10s ? At this point, it's hard to imagine but we live in a fragile and volatile world. To be confident the current Conservative brand will be as popular in five years as it is now seems courageous.
Big poll leads at this stage mean nothing.
Edited extra bit: Mr. EPG, my gast is flabbered that you prefer a Conservative government to a Labour one.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33729417