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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Re Mr. Cameron’s plan to appoint many more CON peers – the

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,024
    Mr. 565, has voting even started yet?

    Mr. Foxinsox, an astute point.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Danny565 said:

    Time to put everything you have on Jez.

    He is on 72% in the Mirror's voodoo poll.

    I really have no idea how they picked a sample to poll for the report, but it does look like Jezza. Interesting to see the others not so far apart.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. 565, has voting even started yet?

    Mr. Foxinsox, an astute point.

    Voting starts on 12th August but the campaign is pretty much done: there are no more hustings.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Private polling seen by the Daily Mirror shows Mr Corbyn set to top the ballot with 42%, way ahead of Yvette Cooper on 22.6%, Andy Burnham on 20% and Liz Kendall on 14%

    If I were Corbyn I'd want 50% in the first round, or as close to it. 42% is probably enough, but not by miles...
    Burnham is a massive lay.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,024
    Mr. 565, cheers. That's a long wait if the campaign's over.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    JEO said:

    Private polling seen by the Daily Mirror shows Mr Corbyn set to top the ballot with 42%, way ahead of Yvette Cooper on 22.6%, Andy Burnham on 20% and Liz Kendall on 14%

    "Private polling". i.e. leaked by the Cooper camp.
    That's what I thought. Findings which happen to suggest everyone should throw their support behind Cooper at a time where she is seemingly fading in the race.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2015
    Or so you've been told :open_mouth:

    Private polling seen by the Daily Mirror shows Mr Corbyn set to top the ballot with 42%, way ahead of Yvette Cooper on 22.6%, Andy Burnham on 20% and Liz Kendall on 14%

    If I were Corbyn I'd want 50% in the first round, or as close to it. 42% is probably enough, but not by miles...
    Burnham is a massive lay.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    AndyJS said:

    Judges overstepping the mark again. They really are completely out of control, aren't they.

    "Your will can be ignored, say judges
    The landmark Court of Appeal ruling has implications for how people should draw up their wills, legal experts say"


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11766651/Your-will-can-be-ignored-say-judges.html

    Quite worrying. My parents will involves the use of a discretionary trust (I think) as there are circumstances such as divorce where they would not want the child to inherit anything. For a court to overrule such a choice is a complete invasion of their right to decide how to spend their money.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited July 2015

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @HurstLlama FPT

    The problem with your 20x median salary system is that it can easily be worked around by outsourcing.

    Secretaries dragging your median salary down? Don't worry, call Adecco and get 'temps' who are off the book.

    IT support pulling down the number? Don't worry. you can outsource it.

    Cleaning or security? Some other firm can do it for you and you can get those low paid staff off your books and onto someone else's.

    surey just a case of needing someone halfway competent to draft the legislation?
    It's more complicated than that, though.

    The CEO of Goldman Sachs would be able to pay himself £20m a year, because there are lots of expensive bankers working for that firm.

    But Tesco? Because they have lots of staff (some of whom are part time) earning £15,000 a year, well he's only going to get £300,000. (He'd probably prefer to be Goldman Sach's Tesco analyst instead.)

    People should be paid according their economic value.

    Limiting remuneration based on a firm's median wage would discourage anyone from opening a factory in the UK. Better to open it abroad, where those low paid factory staff don't drag down your average.

    Is that what we are trying to encourage?
    Well, if companies can't come up with a more equitable system then the state must and my 20 times limit might be a crude hammer rather than a sophisticated implement but the nut will be broken nonetheless.
    The State should get it's own house in order first.

    Many politicians, civil serpents and quangocrats are paid, far, far, more than they're actually worth. A figure closer to £0 could be applied to many MP's. I'm prepared to include charity big wigs in that bunch too, since so many of those bodies are reliant on public funding for the majority of their income.

    Once an example has been made, the private sector might be more willing to step into line.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Artist said:

    JEO said:

    Private polling seen by the Daily Mirror shows Mr Corbyn set to top the ballot with 42%, way ahead of Yvette Cooper on 22.6%, Andy Burnham on 20% and Liz Kendall on 14%

    "Private polling". i.e. leaked by the Cooper camp.
    That's what I thought. Findings which happen to suggest everyone should throw their support behind Cooper at a time where she is seemingly fading in the race.
    I wonder how many private polls showing her behind Burnham she didn't leak.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JEO said:

    Artist said:

    JEO said:

    Private polling seen by the Daily Mirror shows Mr Corbyn set to top the ballot with 42%, way ahead of Yvette Cooper on 22.6%, Andy Burnham on 20% and Liz Kendall on 14%

    "Private polling". i.e. leaked by the Cooper camp.
    That's what I thought. Findings which happen to suggest everyone should throw their support behind Cooper at a time where she is seemingly fading in the race.
    I wonder how many private polls showing her behind Burnham she didn't leak.
    As many as it takes!
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    watford30 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @HurstLlama FPT

    The problem with your 20x median salary system is that it can easily be worked around by outsourcing.

    Secretaries dragging your median salary down? Don't worry, call Adecco and get 'temps' who are off the book.

    IT support pulling down the number? Don't worry. you can outsource it.

    Cleaning or security? Some other firm can do it for you and you can get those low paid staff off your books and onto someone else's.

    surey just a case of needing someone halfway competent to draft the legislation?
    It's more complicated than that, though.

    The CEO of Goldman Sachs would be able to pay himself £20m a year, because there are lots of expensive bankers working for that firm.

    But Tesco? Because they have lots of staff (some of whom are part time) earning £15,000 a year, well he's only going to get £300,000. (He'd probably prefer to be Goldman Sach's Tesco analyst instead.)

    People should be paid according their economic value.

    Limiting remuneration based on a firm's median wage would discourage anyone from opening a factory in the UK. Better to open it abroad, where those low paid factory staff don't drag down your average.

    Is that what we are trying to encourage?
    Well, if companies can't come up with a more equitable system then the state must and my 20 times limit might be a crude hammer rather than a sophisticated implement but the nut will be broken nonetheless.
    The State should get it's own house in order first.

    Many politicians, civil serpents and quangocrats are paid, far, far, more than they're actually worth. A figure closer to £0 could be applied to many MP's. I'm prepared to include charity big wigs in that bunch too, since so many of those bodies are reliant on public funding for the majority of their income.

    Once an example has been made, the private sector might be more willing to step into line.
    I agree and earlier on today suggested that other than medical staff a top salary of £100,000 in the public sector was more than enough to ensure applicants of the necessary calibre would come forward. Of course there is nothing to say that nobody in public service should be exempt from the 20 times rule, though that would often have the unfortunate effect of pushing salaries up to even more undeserved heights.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,180

    Second (and covered in paint)

    Why? (the paint I mean, not the "second")
    Mrs J's taken the young 'un to meet his grandparents in Turkey, and I stayed at home to do all the little jobs that have built up over the year. Including painting his room a nice shade of blue.
    :) How tory of you :D:D
    I would say it was Mrs J's choice, but her interest in decorating extends about as far as my interest in cricket. I put some sample colours on the wall and she was not really interested in picking, which means it's my fault if it's wrong when she comes back. ;)

    Perhaps she'd have paid more attention if I'd painted the samples in equations or circuits ...
    She sounds like my kind of person..... :)

    Number Theory anyone?
    Not after tea, thank you. ;)

    The comment about party affiliation and colour got me thinking - there are plenty of pleasant blue and yellow shades out there in which you could paint a room, but red? Too dark, too bloody, and if you try to lighten it up you get pink.

    (As an aside, before she got pregnant Mrs J said she would buy a son all pink clothes, and a girl blue, as she believed in smashing gender stereotyping. When it came to it, she did not, although she still prefers colours other than blue and red)
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Second (and covered in paint)

    Why? (the paint I mean, not the "second")
    Mrs J's taken the young 'un to meet his grandparents in Turkey, and I stayed at home to do all the little jobs that have built up over the year. Including painting his room a nice shade of blue.
    :) How tory of you :D:D
    I would say it was Mrs J's choice, but her interest in decorating extends about as far as my interest in cricket. I put some sample colours on the wall and she was not really interested in picking, which means it's my fault if it's wrong when she comes back. ;)

    Perhaps she'd have paid more attention if I'd painted the samples in equations or circuits ...
    She sounds like my kind of person..... :)

    Number Theory anyone?
    Not after tea, thank you. ;)

    The comment about party affiliation and colour got me thinking - there are plenty of pleasant blue and yellow shades out there in which you could paint a room, but red? Too dark, too bloody, and if you try to lighten it up you get pink.

    (As an aside, before she got pregnant Mrs J said she would buy a son all pink clothes, and a girl blue, as she believed in smashing gender stereotyping. When it came to it, she did not, although she still prefers colours other than blue and red)
    I had a pillar box bedroom in one of my previous houses. It was very restful.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,677
    edited July 2015
    Important notice

    Mike has just informed me, that he will be on holiday/I will be editing PB when the Labour leadership result will be announced.

    You all know nothing major/important happens when Mike is on holiday.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited July 2015

    From todays judgement, it seems not. I was just curious to see what the limits of reasonableness.

    The 1975 Act gives certain persons (spouses, common law spouses, children etc.) a right to apply to the court on the ground that the testator failed to make reasonable financial provision for the applicant. If the court concludes that reasonable financial provision has not been made, it may make an order in favour of the applicant. There is no general requirement, however, that testamentary dispositions be reasonable, provided they are certain and are not contrary to public policy.

    Forfeiture clauses disinheriting those not of the Jewish faith and Roman Catholics have been held to be sufficiently certain, as have clauses requiring a beneficiary to have a wife approved by the Chief Rabbi (see Baron Cawley's case; Re Tuck's Settlement Trusts [1978] Ch. 49 (CA)). There is no reason to think, given the registration of political parties, that a clause requiring a beneficiary to forfeit his inheritance if he joined the Conservative and Unionist Party would not be valid. Clauses disinheriting those converting to Roman Catholicism have been held not to be contrary to public policy. That said, the requirements of public policy change over time (Belhaj v Straw [2015] 2 WLR 1105, 1145 (CA) per Lord Dyson MR), and it is arguable that the relaxed approach taken in 1975 (concerning the validity of a disposition made in 1936) would not be adopted today.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited July 2015
    The £8k looking to back Burnham at 2.1 on Betfair is acting as a massive blocker. Once it goes I can see his price blowing to 3.0 or beyond.

    This polling (assuming it's kosher) is brutal for him - being behind Cooper on 1st preferences is utterly fatal.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @JossiasJessop

    No number theory after tea? Gosh, that is very strict. I know Godfrey Hardy (probably England's greatest number theorist) didn't like to work after luncheon but he was a Cambridge man.

    Surely on a cold winter's evening when the wind is howling outside there can be few nicer ways of spending an evening than sitting by a warm fire with a small glass of something nice and contemplating whether every infinite continued fraction represents a unique irrational number or some similar problem.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,024
    Mr. Eagles, your challenge: relay the result using comparisons with the Crisis of Third Century.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034



    Getting a system of corporate governance that is fit for purpose in the 21st century is not going to be easy. Mr. Charles, gent of this parish, has gone so far as to suggest that it is a holy grail, and thus unachievable. Well, if companies can't come up with a more equitable system then the state must and my 20 times limit might be a crude hammer rather than a sophisticated implement but the nut will be broken nonetheless.

    No reasons different markets couldn't adopt a different multiples. For example, if you're in a tech sector or knowledge-based industry where there are few/no unskilled jobs, then you could have a lower multiple than in, say, the FMCG field, where many employees are on minimum wage.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,677

    New Thread

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MTimT said:



    Getting a system of corporate governance that is fit for purpose in the 21st century is not going to be easy. Mr. Charles, gent of this parish, has gone so far as to suggest that it is a holy grail, and thus unachievable. Well, if companies can't come up with a more equitable system then the state must and my 20 times limit might be a crude hammer rather than a sophisticated implement but the nut will be broken nonetheless.

    No reasons different markets couldn't adopt a different multiples. For example, if you're in a tech sector or knowledge-based industry where there are few/no unskilled jobs, then you could have a lower multiple than in, say, the FMCG field, where many employees are on minimum wage.
    That could be done, Mr. T., but I would be against it for two reasons.

    Firstly, how would one frame a law with a degree of flexibility to cover every business sector and what mechanism would there be to arbitrate in cases of dispute? A simple multiple of the median wage is easy to calculate and hard to fiddle.

    Secondly, if one is running a business making complex things or delivering complex services then one probably has to be of a higher calibre than someone who, for example, bashes metal or runs an employment agency. That will be reflected in the quality of staff employed and that by the amount they are paid. Thus a person running, say, an electronics design company will be able to command a higher salary than someone running an agency that provides outsourcing of street sweepers.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2015

    Private polling seen by the Daily Mirror shows Mr Corbyn set to top the ballot with 42%, way ahead of Yvette Cooper on 22.6%, Andy Burnham on 20% and Liz Kendall on 14%

    If I were Corbyn I'd want 50% in the first round, or as close to it. 42% is probably enough, but not by miles...
    40% in 1st round is probably enough. Of the non-Corbyn 60% given in 1st round circa 10 percentage points maybe lost through non voters. Corbyn therefore needs 10+ percentage point gains. Very achieveable. Even some of Kendall's supporters have been giving Corbyn a 2nd pref!
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