Looong wait until Spa. I'll probably start the mid-season review shortly and post it either this weekend or the next.
Cameron should probably go this term. That said, I'm not sure his successor will prove better.
I think the difficulties faced by the Labour leadership contest show that authenticity will be a key feature in any Tory election too.
People are fed up with scripted, media trained, robotic, politicians who spout the same well rehearsed mantra, and strap lines.
Authenticity is something that you have either have or don't. You cannot learn it, and if you tried to learn it you simply come across as less authentic. Osborne's development of an estuary twang is a case in point.
Jeremy Hunt is the stand out Tory front bencher, hands down. He's got believability- I don't know how, but he's got it. So too has Boris. So too has Zak Goldsmith.
@JEO I'm not saying that all PBers are Tories, just that most PBers are. Even quite a lot of the Kippers tend to see things from a Conservative perspective - they just tend to be much more to the right, roughly around where Philip Davies et al are. That said, those such as @Sean_F do come across as quite moderate in comparison to a lot of Kippers I've seen (or rather read).
On the editorial line, yes but the site's 'narrative' does tend to emerge from the comments' section, which has I said previously generally has a Conservative 'take' on events.
@Morris_Dancer Thanks for that information. It would be interesting to hear from more LDs on matters. As for the nation going more rightwards, I would argue this nation has always been right-wing on immigration. It's just that when the issue is controlled, it's seen as a non-issue and so less is spoken of it. On the economy, I'm not so sure. People aren't excited or enthused by austerity - they regard cuts as a realistic necessity. There still seems to be quite a bit of anger at bankers, and their bonuses, too.
It goes in waves - depending on how long you stick around - it'll be full of Kippers around the EU ref, Nats when Holyrood is on etc.
There was a time when @Sean_Fear was the only Tory when Labour were riding high.
That must have been around 2005. I do recall during the GE though Conservative contributors did outnumber Labour/LD ones quite signifcantly, with one or two neutrals in the mix.
I think that you will find that many PBers on here follow a line of political, economic and educational common sense which relates to current and future times, rather than a life-long adherence to any political party There are a fair few floaters and many like myself who have never been a member of any political party. A study of PBers will show that there are quite a few who have significant UK and international experience in various fields and at a high level. It is that which can make PB so interesting at times. BTW as a one who is well below the average age here, why does PB attract you among the wide number of political bogs.
@JEO I'm not saying that all PBers are Tories, just that most PBers are. Even quite a lot of the Kippers tend to see things from a Conservative perspective - they just tend to be much more to the right, roughly around where Philip Davies et al are. That said, those such as @Sean_F do come across as quite moderate in comparison to a lot of Kippers I've seen (or rather read).
On the editorial line, yes but the site's 'narrative' does tend to emerge from the comments' section, which has I said previously generally has a Conservative 'take' on events.
@Morris_Dancer Thanks for that information. It would be interesting to hear from more LDs on matters. As for the nation going more rightwards, I would argue this nation has always been right-wing on immigration. It's just that when the issue is controlled, it's seen as a non-issue and so less is spoken of it. On the economy, I'm not so sure. People aren't excited or enthused by austerity - they regard cuts as a realistic necessity. There still seems to be quite a bit of anger at bankers, and their bonuses, too.
The problem is in pigeonholing people who dislike the current Labour party as 'Conservatives'. I'm not a Conservative, but frequently get called one on here because I tend to favour current Conservative policies, and quite like Cameron (I have been proved right on him, I think).
Yet whilst I voted Conservative at the GE, I voted for the Labour candidate at the locals, because he was the best candidate.
I'm more likely to vote Lib Dem than Labour at the moment, but if Labour had someone half sane at the helm then I'd be open to them. They have not since about 2005, IMHO.
Cameron seems to have learned from previous PMs that after the second term it tends to go downhill pretty quickly.
On Cameron reading PB, really? Well it is sort of like ConservativeHome 2, in how many Tories there are so I suppose it's not that surprising. On that note, winning an election does not protect you from any criticism, so even from the Evil, ''Bitter'' Left.
On Osborne, I don't think the Left has a whole were remotely surprised to see he was angling for the leadership - that's been talked about for years, they just don't rate him as a future leader of the country.
I suspect Cameron glances at the headers to keep half an eye on the polling etc.
I don't think world leaders read BTL on any form of media, surely?
Cameron seems to have learned from previous PMs that after the second term it tends to go downhill pretty quickly.
On Cameron reading PB, really? Well it is sort of like ConservativeHome 2, in how many Tories there are so I suppose it's not that surprising. On that note, winning an election does not protect you from any criticism, so even from the Evil, ''Bitter'' Left.
On Osborne, I don't think the Left has a whole were remotely surprised to see he was angling for the leadership - that's been talked about for years, they just don't rate him as a future leader of the country.
This website is one of the few places on the internet where you have people from all political parties commenting, and most of them do so in a respectful and decent manner. If David Cameron reads it, I'm sure it's for that reason rather than because of the mild lean to the right.
Yes, but it is still dominated by Conservative commentators, to be point where how this site often sees politics as a whole, and political, economic, or social events is overwhelmingly Conservative. I'd argue this site has far more than a 'mild lean to the right'.
Really, not quite my re-collection Plato. In the early, early days, aside from Sean Fear, there were Benedict White, seanT, Peter from Putney, Commentator, David Herdson etc, etc...... This site has always been right leaning, and has shifted more to the right as the lefties have been pushed out (Tim) or bailed out- Snowflake.
It goes in waves - depending on how long you stick around - it'll be full of Kippers around the EU ref, Nats when Holyrood is on etc.
There was a time when @Sean_Fear was the only Tory when Labour were riding high.
That must have been around 2005. I do recall during the GE though Conservative contributors did outnumber Labour/LD ones quite signifcantly, with one or two neutrals in the mix.
I think that you will find that many PBers on here follow a line of political, economic and educational common sense which relates to current and future times, rather than a life-long adherence to any political party There are a fair few floaters and many like myself who have never been a member of any political party. A study of PBers will show that there are quite a few who have significant UK and international experience in various fields and at a high level. It is that which can make PB so interesting at times. BTW as a one who is well below the average age here, why does PB attract you among the wide number of political bogs.
Dude- this is a betting site. That might be something of a giveaway.
As a newcomer on the left, my experience is that anything much to the left of Blair is marginalised on the site. I think it is telling that the rise of Corbyn has come as a shock to pretty much every poster here, while at the same time Kendall's chances have been overestimated.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
I was labeled as a Tory from almost the moment I posted on here c2008 despite pointing out repeatedly that I hadn't voted Tory since 1987 and had voted LD and Labour in the interim. It's the whole If You Aren't With Us, You're Against Us meme.
It was Gordon that firmly pushed me from New Labour in the end/lying about Iraq by Tony though I had no problem with the war per se.
@JEO I'm not saying that all PBers are Tories, just that most PBers are. Even quite a lot of the Kippers tend to see things from a Conservative perspective - they just tend to be much more to the right, roughly around where Philip Davies et al are. That said, those such as @Sean_F do come across as quite moderate in comparison to a lot of Kippers I've seen (or rather read).
On the editorial line, yes but the site's 'narrative' does tend to emerge from the comments' section, which has I said previously generally has a Conservative 'take' on events.
@Morris_Dancer Thanks for that information. It would be interesting to hear from more LDs on matters. As for the nation going more rightwards, I would argue this nation has always been right-wing on immigration. It's just that when the issue is controlled, it's seen as a non-issue and so less is spoken of it. On the economy, I'm not so sure. People aren't excited or enthused by austerity - they regard cuts as a realistic necessity. There still seems to be quite a bit of anger at bankers, and their bonuses, too.
The problem is in pigeonholing people who dislike the current Labour party as 'Conservatives'. I'm not a Conservative, but frequently get called one on here because I tend to favour current Conservative policies, and quite like Cameron (I have been proved right on him, I think).
Yet whilst I voted Conservative at the GE, I voted for the Labour candidate at the locals, because he was the best candidate.
I'm more likely to vote Lib Dem than Labour at the moment, but if Labour had someone half sane at the helm then I'd be open to them. They have not since about 2005, IMHO.
I wonder if it's just geographically determined (even locally, North Yorkshire is Toryland, and South Yorkshire is referred to as The People's Republic of South Yorkshire).
It's understandable that the left might be quieter after five years of Miliband, the unexpected woe of the General Election, and their current leadership issues.
On topic, this is reminiscent of Boris Johnson's pledge in the 2012 London Mayoral campaign that he wouldn't seek to return to Westminster during his Mayoral term and he drove a coach and horses through that so perhaps we should treat Cameron's "pledge" with similar contempt or at the very least caution.
The problem for the Conservatives is that there were, I suspect, a number (and I can't quantify it) of voters who, although voting Conservative in May, were in fact voting for David Cameron. As we know from the polls, Cameron is more popular than his Party and on that basis alone it's probably fair to argue the "Cameron factor" helped lift the Conservatives across the line from Hung Parliament to majority territory.
My suspicion is a number of ex-LD voters, especially in LD constituencies, abandoned the party when the possibility of a Lab-LD deal was raised and baulked at the prospect of a Lab-SNP deal. "The fear" (no disrespect to Sean) was enough to send them into the Cameron (as distinct from the Conservative) camp.
How do the Conservatives keep the non-Tory Cameroons on board with a new leader ? This may be behind the new will he go, won't he go dithering. The curious relationship between Osborne, who effectively runs the Party and the Government and Cameron, who he needs to keep in that position because he (Osborne) knows he will never have the popular empathy Cameron enjoys, is at the heart of this.
We've already seen with the Heathrow runway issue that once Cameron is out of the picture, all kinds of internal wrangling are going to engulf the Conservatives though I'm sure all the Tories on here will vehemently deny it. Osborne probably knows in his heart he may be leader but he'll be as successful as Gordon Brown so he's left to try to manipulate the new leader but the Mays, Hammonds and Johnsons of this world owe him nothing so he'll need someone he can "control" like Javid to come through the middle.
For all the gleeful enjoyment the Tories on here have taken from the Labour leadership race, there'll be plenty of fun for the rest of us when the blue ferrets start arguing in their sack.;
@JEO I'm not saying that all PBers are Tories, just that most PBers are.
That can't be true. Every time the, er, homogeneity question is brought up, you get loads of PB Tories saying it isn't the case. Surely they must know what they're talking about?
It was fascinating when @MrJones used to post and I miss his contributions - he'd voted BNP in frustration and spoke of many issues that have since become very large re Rotherham et al.
He eventually gave in and left - he was Old Labour in the main and very eloquent. Some posters were extremely offensive to him for saying what turned out to be true.
As a newcomer on the left, my experience is that anything much to the left of Blair is marginalised on the site. I think it is telling that the rise of Corbyn has come as a shock to pretty much every poster here, while at the same time Kendall's chances have been overestimated.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
For all the gleeful enjoyment the Tories on here have taken from the Labour leadership race, there'll be plenty of fun for the rest of us when the blue ferrets start arguing in their sack.;
True - but all this pales into insignificance if Corbyn wins.
Until Cameron is safely through to the other side of the EU referendum, whatever the result, I can't see him making any changes to his plan. I think his aspirations will be more along following Tony Blair's career path and become a perma-tanned global PR guru, the MSM should be keeping an eye on who's registering names e.g. David Cameron & Associates etc.
Another strand to the Labour leadership battle is suspicions from senior Labour sources that SNP supporters are in the £3 game:
" A senior Labour insider said: There is definitely entryism going on; the question is whether or not it is on an industrial scale. "
Personally I wouldn't give much credence to this story as SLAB membership and registered supporters is reputedly in the 12,000 to 15,000 area. If this had gone up substantially SLAB would have been carpet bombing twitter and John McT would have taken to the airwaves blowing his trumpet. Its worth remembering that SLAB were recently expelling members who voted SNP - I think even SLAB would be able to filter out SNP infiltrators.
Cameron seems to have learned from previous PMs that after the second term it tends to go downhill pretty quickly.
On Cameron reading PB, really? Well it is sort of like ConservativeHome 2, in how many Tories there are so I suppose it's not that surprising. On that note, winning an election does not protect you from any criticism, so even from the Evil, ''Bitter'' Left.
On Osborne, I don't think the Left has a whole were remotely surprised to see he was angling for the leadership - that's been talked about for years, they just don't rate him as a future leader of the country.
This website is one of the few places on the internet where you have people from all political parties commenting, and most of them do so in a respectful and decent manner. If David Cameron reads it, I'm sure it's for that reason rather than because of the mild lean to the right.
Yes, but it is still dominated by Conservative commentators, to be point where how this site often sees politics as a whole, and political, economic, or social events is overwhelmingly Conservative. I'd argue this site has far more than a 'mild lean to the right'.
The site owner is a LD and leans mildly to the left - the mix of commentators is just that - a mix, though with few if any Slabs. Overall balance varies but probably settles around centre right - it tends to reflect the political will of the public at large overall - ie there'd be a centre left feel had Miliband won the election. Quite a few have disappeared without trace since May 15 - not least Compouter - who used to be very fond of the daily YG polls..and squirrels.
Cameron seems to have learned from previous PMs that after the second term it tends to go downhill pretty quickly.
On Cameron reading PB, really? Well it is sort of like ConservativeHome 2, in how many Tories there are so I suppose it's not that surprising. On that note, winning an election does not protect you from any criticism, so even from the Evil, ''Bitter'' Left.
On Osborne, I don't think the Left has a whole were remotely surprised to see he was angling for the leadership - that's been talked about for years, they just don't rate him as a future leader of the country.
This website is one of the few places on the internet where you have people from all political parties commenting, and most of them do so in a respectful and decent manner. If David Cameron reads it, I'm sure it's for that reason rather than because of the mild lean to the right.
Yes, but it is still dominated by Conservative commentators, to be point where how this site often sees politics as a whole, and political, economic, or social events is overwhelmingly Conservative. I'd argue this site has far more than a 'mild lean to the right'.
Really, not quite my re-collection Plato. In the early, early days, aside from Sean Fear, there were Benedict White, seanT, Peter from Putney, Commentator, David Herdson etc, etc...... This site has always been right leaning, and has shifted more to the right as the lefties have been pushed out (Tim) or bailed out- Snowflake.
Early on, there were plenty of vociferous LibDems, chomping at the bit to have a go at Henley when Boris resigned after becoming Mayor. Their vocal presence declined along with their party's fortunes.
I suspect tim left because he could see the writing on the wall. Whilst many think Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister was originated by JackW, it was actually my good self who came up with it. I was winding up tim around the time of the omnishambles budget. I went on the record saying, as above, that Ed Miliband WIll Never Be Prime Minister. I taunted tim to go on the record and say that he would. He declined.
Can you imagine the grief tim would have endured these past three months if he had still been here? He was one of the best at dishing it out. Not the best at taking it. He had an excuse to leave early - he took it.
It goes in waves - depending on how long you stick around - it'll be full of Kippers around the EU ref, Nats when Holyrood is on etc.
There was a time when @Sean_Fear was the only Tory when Labour were riding high.
That must have been around 2005. I do recall during the GE though Conservative contributors did outnumber Labour/LD ones quite signifcantly, with one or two neutrals in the mix.
I think that you will find that many PBers on here follow a line of political, economic and educational common sense which relates to current and future times, rather than a life-long adherence to any political party There are a fair few floaters and many like myself who have never been a member of any political party. A study of PBers will show that there are quite a few who have significant UK and international experience in various fields and at a high level. It is that which can make PB so interesting at times. BTW as a one who is well below the average age here, why does PB attract you among the wide number of political bogs.
Common sense that just happens to be a collective Conservative take on matters!
In regards to PB - well the political blogs I'm aware of, don't generally tend to attract a lot of young people anyway. There's the Guardian's blogs, but I've lurked on CIF for a long-time, and I've never really liked CIFers one iota. They are far too ideological and divisive for me, and CIF generally is like an echo-chamber. The Telegraph comments' section is exactly the same, except that members there also throw some sexism and racism into the mix - which isn't exactly nice to read. Their devotion to Nigel Farage is also really weird. The Guido Fawkes comments' section, in his blog is just a mess. There is no room for any kind of constructive discussion. A lot of the Labour/Left-wing blogs - such as Labourlist etc. have been swinging into CIF territory of deranged idealogues for a long time now.
It's finally gone cuckoo, since Corbyn's ascension. Twitter, doesn't lend itself to an interesting discussion of politics, and has become an awful echo-chamber as well, as opposed to reflecting a wide-spectrum of views.
I also was interested in different views to mind, and in particular 'neutral' views - of those who didn't have a devout belief in a particular party, or ideology. Although PB tends to attract Conservatives/right-wingers, there are a fair few PBers who come across is impartial too - something which seemed very difficult to find on other political blogs. Also, @JEO does make a good point when he says PBers, for the most part can discuss politics in a respectful manner. This doesn't seem to be case on many other political blogs, which seem to attract really extreme types.
On topic, this is reminiscent of Boris Johnson's pledge in the 2012 London Mayoral campaign that he wouldn't seek to return to Westminster during his Mayoral term and he drove a coach and horses through that so perhaps we should treat Cameron's "pledge" with similar contempt or at the very least caution.
The problem for the Conservatives is that there were, I suspect, a number (and I can't quantify it) of voters who, although voting Conservative in May, were in fact voting for David Cameron. As we know from the polls, Cameron is more popular than his Party and on that basis alone it's probably fair to argue the "Cameron factor" helped lift the Conservatives across the line from Hung Parliament to majority territory.
My suspicion is a number of ex-LD voters, especially in LD constituencies, abandoned the party when the possibility of a Lab-LD deal was raised and baulked at the prospect of a Lab-SNP deal. "The fear" (no disrespect to Sean) was enough to send them into the Cameron (as distinct from the Conservative) camp.
How do the Conservatives keep the non-Tory Cameroons on board with a new leader ? This may be behind the new will he go, won't he go dithering. The curious relationship between Osborne, who effectively runs the Party and the Government and Cameron, who he needs to keep in that position because he (Osborne) knows he will never have the popular empathy Cameron enjoys, is at the heart of this.
We've already seen with the Heathrow runway issue that once Cameron is out of the picture, all kinds of internal wrangling are going to engulf the Conservatives though I'm sure all the Tories on here will vehemently deny it. Osborne probably knows in his heart he may be leader but he'll be as successful as Gordon Brown so he's left to try to manipulate the new leader but the Mays, Hammonds and Johnsons of this world owe him nothing so he'll need someone he can "control" like Javid to come through the middle.
For all the gleeful enjoyment the Tories on here have taken from the Labour leadership race, there'll be plenty of fun for the rest of us when the blue ferrets start arguing in their sack.;
Lol - of course the LDs rise above any such shenanigans and are scrupulously avoiding any sense of enjoyment at Labour's travails.
I think this place (PB) is fairly well mixed, but it has people who will fight their corner very vigorously whether left, right or centre. However I agree with Plato's comment about "If you are not with us....". I stopped posting here because a few posters were vitriolic and it was not worth trying to counter them.
Cameron seems to have learned from previous PMs that after the second term it tends to go downhill pretty quickly.
On Cameron reading PB, really? Well it is sort of like ConservativeHome 2, in how many Tories there are so I suppose it's not that surprising. On that note, winning an election does not protect you from any criticism, so even from the Evil, ''Bitter'' Left.
On Osborne, I don't think the Left has a whole were remotely surprised to see he was angling for the leadership - that's been talked about for years, they just don't rate him as a future leader of the country.
This website is one of the few places on the internet where you have people from all political parties commenting, and most of them do so in a respectful and decent manner. If David Cameron reads it, I'm sure it's for that reason rather than because of the mild lean to the right.
Yes, but it is still dominated by Conservative commentators, to be point where how this site often sees politics as a whole, and political, economic, or social events is overwhelmingly Conservative. I'd argue this site has far more than a 'mild lean to the right'.
The site owner is a LD and leans mildly to the left - the mix of commentators is just that - a mix, though with few if any Slabs. Overall balance varies but probably settles around centre right - it tends to reflect the political will of the public at large overall - ie there'd be a centre left feel had Miliband won the election. Quite a few have disappeared without trace since May 15 - not least Compouter - who used to be very fond of the daily YG polls..and squirrels.
Balance is set by who comes and posts - no quotas, no diktats, no cleansing of non believers.
I think this place (PB) is fairly well mixed, but it has people who will fight their corner very vigorously whether left, right or centre. However I agree with Plato's comment about "If you are not with us....". I stopped posting here because a few posters were vitriolic and it was not worth trying to counter them.
Yes, but it is still dominated by Conservative commentators, to be point where how this site often sees politics as a whole, and political, economic, or social events is overwhelmingly Conservative. I'd argue this site has far more than a 'mild lean to the right'.
I think you need to separate posters from numbers of posts. There is a majority of pro-Conservative or at the very least anti-Labour posts on this site but that doesn't translate into an equivalent number of posters because there are posters who post relentlessly, day after day and you can tell who they are because they've amassed over 10,000 posts.
There's also the argument that quality is inversely proportional to quantity and your first post will always be your best post.
As for the past, there has always been a strong Conservative presence on this site but as individuals posted less the numbers of posts created a more balanced overview.
The onset of the recession sharpened and antagonised the debate on here noticeably - back in 2005-06 I remember any number of serious constructive discussions with the Conservative and Labour posters on here. I now find a number of the regular Conservative posters on here quite unwilling (or probably unable) to engage in debate beyond re-tweeting someone else's opinions or reaching for the nearest insult or jibe or (worse) sounding like a caricature of one of Billy Bunter's class mates.
SeanT used to be sharp, witty and amusing and it was almost a pleasure to be insulted by him. Unfortunately, writing and rampant europhobia have made him a parody of his once great self. It's all very sad.
On topic, this is reminiscent of Boris Johnson's pledge in the 2012 London Mayoral campaign that he wouldn't seek to return to Westminster during his Mayoral term and he drove a coach and horses through that so perhaps we should treat Cameron's "pledge" with similar contempt or at the very least caution.
The problem for the Conservatives is that there were, I suspect, a number (and I can't quantify it) of voters who, although voting Conservative in May, were in fact voting for David Cameron. As we know from the polls, Cameron is more popular than his Party and on that basis alone it's probably fair to argue the "Cameron factor" helped lift the Conservatives across the line from Hung Parliament to majority territory.
My suspicion is a number of ex-LD voters, especially in LD constituencies, abandoned the party when the possibility of a Lab-LD deal was raised and baulked at the prospect of a Lab-SNP deal. "The fear" (no disrespect to Sean) was enough to send them into the Cameron (as distinct from the Conservative) camp.
How do the Conservatives keep the non-Tory Cameroons on board with a new leader ? This may be behind the new will he go, won't he go dithering. The curious relationship between Osborne, who effectively runs the Party and the Government and Cameron, who he needs to keep in that position because he (Osborne) knows he will never have the popular empathy Cameron enjoys, is at the heart of this.
We've already seen with the Heathrow runway issue that once Cameron is out of the picture, all kinds of internal wrangling are going to engulf the Conservatives though I'm sure all the Tories on here will vehemently deny it. Osborne probably knows in his heart he may be leader but he'll be as successful as Gordon Brown so he's left to try to manipulate the new leader but the Mays, Hammonds and Johnsons of this world owe him nothing so he'll need someone he can "control" like Javid to come through the middle.
For all the gleeful enjoyment the Tories on here have taken from the Labour leadership race, there'll be plenty of fun for the rest of us when the blue ferrets start arguing in their sack.;
If Labour elect Jeremy Corbyn, I imagine most of the voters you describe will stick with the Conservatives, even after Cameron goes.
I could see the Lib Dems regaining a handful of seats from the Conservatives, but their problem is that in many of the seats they lost in 2010 and 2015, the Conservatives have massive leads. What's more, new Conservative MPs have the chance to build up the sort of incumbency votes that the Lib Dems used to have.
It was also for a rather long period anti-female if you weren't *the right sort of poster*
Yes indeed, I recall it well. I am used to having blokes not listen unless I more or less shout at them (par for the course - 'twas ever thus) but I remember the sorts of attacks that you used to be subjected to on here. I only had it happen to me a few times but it definitely dampened my enthusiasm for the place. That and nobody talking about shoes..... ;-)
Looong wait until Spa. I'll probably start the mid-season review shortly and post it either this weekend or the next.
Cameron should probably go this term. That said, I'm not sure his successor will prove better.
I think the difficulties faced by the Labour leadership contest show that authenticity will be a key feature in any Tory election too.
People are fed up with scripted, media trained, robotic, politicians who spout the same well rehearsed mantra, and strap lines.
Authenticity is something that you have either have or don't. You cannot learn it, and if you tried to learn it you simply come across as less authentic. Osborne's development of an estuary twang is a case in point.
Jeremy Hunt is the stand out Tory front bencher, hands down. He's got believability- I don't know how, but he's got it. So too has Boris. So too has Zak Goldsmith.
I agree with much of that. If I were a socialist, I'd find Corbyn a far more attractive figure than the three bland centrists.
Unfortunately for Labour, I just don't think there is a majority that can be achieved in England and Wales for a truly socialist programme.
Yes, but it is still dominated by Conservative commentators, to be point where how this site often sees politics as a whole, and political, economic, or social events is overwhelmingly Conservative. I'd argue this site has far more than a 'mild lean to the right'.
As for the past, there has always been a strong Conservative presence on this site but as individuals posted less the numbers of posts created a more balanced overview.
The "wrong sort of posters" ? Very Labour.
As pointed out - the Labour posters have not much to crow about - there seemed to be plenty every time YG, Com Res or Survation poll had Ed ahead by 2-3 points.
This site has some tribal posters who aren't afraid to call out their own side- Kippers and Cons (including myself) - I am more than happy to call out the Cons when they follow the wrong path - if they back Heathrow over Boris Island I'll be disappointed.
I think this place (PB) is fairly well mixed, but it has people who will fight their corner very vigorously whether left, right or centre. However I agree with Plato's comment about "If you are not with us....". I stopped posting here because a few posters were vitriolic and it was not worth trying to counter them.
Good Morning Ms BeverleyC – Welcome back and hope your return is more permanent, - we miss your cooking tips and recipes.
Lol - of course the LDs rise above any such shenanigans and are scrupulously avoiding any sense of enjoyment at Labour's travails.
So, after nearly 2,500 posts on here, no pretense at debate or discussion. Just a cheap jibe and on your merry way.
Says it all really...
Every time you post there is a little barb about Tories in there often at the end - and yet you have the gall to criticize others. I notice you don't deny my point.
On topic - if Labour is due to self-destruct and if Cameron was putting the good of the party first, surely he should go and allow a new leader time to bed in and be an obvious alternative to the hapless labour leader.
I do not know who will win the Labour Leader's job, but none of the candidates have what it takes IMO. Out here in the real world, most people I have spoken to discount Liz Kendall, they think that Corbyn is genuine but unelectable and most wonder who Yvette is. That leaves Andy Burnham.
@JEO I'm not saying that all PBers are Tories, just that most PBers are. Even quite a lot of the Kippers tend to see things from a Conservative perspective - they just tend to be much more to the right, roughly around where Philip Davies et al are. That said, those such as @Sean_F do come across as quite moderate in comparison to a lot of Kippers I've seen (or rather read).
If you add up UKIP + Lib Dems + Labour + Greens + unaligned posters, there are nowhere the Conservatives are a majority.
As for "seeing things from a Conservative perspective", that becomes an issue of extreme subjectivity. If someone believes that immigration should be reduced, then is that a "conservative perspective"? It's about 70% of the UK public. I think there's a basic issue that Labour and Lib Dem activists are substantially to the left of their voter base.
Mrs C, could argue the reverse. Too long in post (as either 'new' PM or Leader of the Opposition) takes the shine off. Better to go with a year and a half or two years to go. Time to get established without losing all the novelty.
It was fascinating when @MrJones used to post and I miss his contributions - he'd voted BNP in frustration and spoke of many issues that have since become very large re Rotherham et al.
He eventually gave in and left - he was Old Labour in the main and very eloquent. Some posters were extremely offensive to him for saying what turned out to be true.
As a newcomer on the left, my experience is that anything much to the left of Blair is marginalised on the site. I think it is telling that the rise of Corbyn has come as a shock to pretty much every poster here, while at the same time Kendall's chances have been overestimated.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
Rewind ten years and there was one person talking about the 'Rotherham' problem. Because that one person was Nick Griffin then what he was (correctly) talking about was dismissed out of hand as being the ramblings of a racist.
There are lessons for us all there, especially those in authority. Lots of people must have known at the time the truth in what Griffin was saying, but nobody dared to speak up for the children.
For what it's worth, the latest Yougov poll shows 37% have a positive view of the Conservatives (52% have a negative view).
17%! have a positive view of Labour, 68% have a negative view. 4% say Labour's behaviour post-election makes them view the party more positively. 36% say their behaviour makes them view the party more negatively.
It was fascinating when @MrJones used to post and I miss his contributions - he'd voted BNP in frustration and spoke of many issues that have since become very large re Rotherham et al.
He eventually gave in and left - he was Old Labour in the main and very eloquent. Some posters were extremely offensive to him for saying what turned out to be true.
As a newcomer on the left, my experience is that anything much to the left of Blair is marginalised on the site. I think it is telling that the rise of Corbyn has come as a shock to pretty much every poster here, while at the same time Kendall's chances have been overestimated.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
Rewind ten years and there was one person talking about the 'Rotherham' problem. Because that one person was Nick Griffin then what he was (correctly) talking about was dismissed out of hand as being the ramblings of a racist.
There are lessons for us all there, especially those in authority. Lots of people must have known at the time the truth in what Griffin was saying, but nobody dared to speak up for the children.
That is just about the saddest feature of that whole sorry episode.
Any idea how Corbyn is planning tonfund nationalising all the universities.
Just the two in Nottingham have balance sheets not far short of a billion, so the whole shebang must be 200 billion plus.
Or is it back to Property is Theft and the Government is Stealing It All?
Corbyn has not said anything about taking unis back into public ownership as far as I can see. He has been talking about lifelong learning, apprenticeships, early years education, removing fees.
I think this place (PB) is fairly well mixed, but it has people who will fight their corner very vigorously whether left, right or centre. However I agree with Plato's comment about "If you are not with us....". I stopped posting here because a few posters were vitriolic and it was not worth trying to counter them.
Good Morning Ms BeverleyC – Welcome back and hope your return is more permanent, - we miss your cooking tips and recipes.
Hello SSC. My return might be rather brief I'm afraid as I have a quiet spot this morning but then a huge amount to do up to the end of next week. Then I have some time off for a while.
It is nice to dip in every so often and my latest recipe is simple but fun. I may post it up later if I get a moment.
I think this place (PB) is fairly well mixed, but it has people who will fight their corner very vigorously whether left, right or centre. However I agree with Plato's comment about "If you are not with us....". I stopped posting here because a few posters were vitriolic and it was not worth trying to counter them.
As a political betting site, it's at its best when not viewed too much through party political glasses. If you're going to bet your money it's best to be well informed based on the facts rather than wishful thinking. For example there were Kippers on here who thought that UKIP could hold the balance of power or get 100+ seats at GE 2015. The secret is in deciding who is posting on what basis and that's tricky. One pointer is to ignore those who are rude.
@JosiasJessop It is probably unfair to label all of those who are critical of Labour as Conservatives - though I did make a reference to the site having a 'conservative' take on issues, which does refer to attitudes and ideology as opposed to purely party-politics. That was what informed much conclusion, rather than just many PBers disliking Labour at this moment in time - I'm more than aware many Scottish Nationalists, LDs, Greens also dislike and are critical of Labour, too. I myself am not the greatest fan of Labour atm....
I have to say, I did think you were a Conservative, although you come across as quite moderate. I think reading the Telegraph/Mail comments' sections has scarred me in regards to very Right-Wing Tories!
I think you have a very good point in regards to Labour's succession of poor leaders - Brown, Miliband, Cooper/Burnham/Corbyn/Kendall....
I actually think, now looking back on it, that Miliband was so bad Brown was actually a better leader than him. I wish David had become leader - I feel Labour would be in a far better place now, if had been. I completely agree with @tyson's take on Ed Miliband. He wasted five years.
I didn't mind Cameron from 2010-12, but since 2012, I've been more and more critical of him.
@MyBurningEars That's a good point. This site (when we had a million polls everyday) also used to get polls a bit earlier than UKPR. On world leaders, well given how so many are communicating through Twitter (as I discovered during the Greek Crisis Part 104), I wouldn't be surprised. Angela Merkel even has an instagram (why?)!
@handandmouse I completely agree everything to left of Blair is marginalised. There also seems to be an expectation that Labour members should worship him in the same way Tories worship Thatcher.
@felix Somehow, I doubt this site would be full of lefties if Ed Miliband had won. I think many PB Tories would be here, predicting the end was nigh! I agree about compouter - he's nowhere to be seen.
The problem for the Conservatives is that there were, I suspect, a number (and I can't quantify it) of voters who, although voting Conservative in May, were in fact voting for David Cameron. As we know from the polls, Cameron is more popular than his Party and on that basis alone it's probably fair to argue the "Cameron factor" helped lift the Conservatives across the line from Hung Parliament to majority territory.
My suspicion is a number of ex-LD voters, especially in LD constituencies, abandoned the party when the possibility of a Lab-LD deal was raised and baulked at the prospect of a Lab-SNP deal. "The fear" (no disrespect to Sean) was enough to send them into the Cameron (as distinct from the Conservative) camp.
How do the Conservatives keep the non-Tory Cameroons on board with a new leader ? This may be behind the new will he go, won't he go dithering. The curious relationship between Osborne, who effectively runs the Party and the Government and Cameron, who he needs to keep in that position because he (Osborne) knows he will never have the popular empathy Cameron enjoys, is at the heart of this.
A good point about Cameron being more popular than his party. Whoever succeeds him will have to keep many people on side who are more Cameroon than Conservative.
That job will of course be considerably easier if Mr Corbyn is fighting for the Red corner, much less so if he is replaced with a Kendall or Jarvis nearer the election though.
For what it's worth, the latest Yougov poll shows 37% have a positive view of the Conservatives (52% have a negative view).
17%! have a positive view of Labour, 68% have a negative view. 4% say Labour's behaviour post-election makes them view the party more positively. 36% say their behaviour makes them view the party more negatively.
Mrs C, could argue the reverse. Too long in post (as either 'new' PM or Leader of the Opposition) takes the shine off. Better to go with a year and a half or two years to go. Time to get established without losing all the novelty.
So, perhaps Cameron should stay until after the 2017 referendum and then depart in shame or a blaze of glory depending on the result. By the time the leadership contest is over that gives the new leader around 2 years to find their feet.
As for the past, there has always been a strong Conservative presence on this site but as individuals posted less the numbers of posts created a more balanced overview.
The "wrong sort of posters" ? Very Labour.
As pointed out - the Labour posters have not much to crow about - there seemed to be plenty every time YG, Com Res or Survation poll had Ed ahead by 2-3 points.
This site has some tribal posters who aren't afraid to call out their own side- Kippers and Cons (including myself) - I am more than happy to call out the Cons when they follow the wrong path - if they back Heathrow over Boris Island I'll be disappointed.
I wasn't aware I'd said "wrong sort of posters". There were fewer posts nine or ten years ago and the impression that created from the pool of posters was more balanced than today.
As you rightly say, you, Casino, Bob Sykes and others on what I could call the "right" have on occasions criticised the Conservative leadership just as I have been critical of the LD leadership on occasions.
There are, I would argue, more posts today from posters who are totally uncritical of their own side and spend their whole time attacking the opposition parties and their posters more, I suspect, from a desire to provoke a response from anything else.
I shouldn't have responded to Felix this morning - he's completely incapable of criticising the Conservative Party but he enjoys provoking opposition posters by small-minded cheap jibes.
I'm afraid that's become the norm on here and it certainly wasn't the case a few years ago.
As a political betting site, it's at its best when not viewed too much through party political glasses. ... The secret is in deciding who is posting on what basis and that's tricky. One pointer is to ignore those who are rude.
I am not really a betting person (except with stocks and shares) but I find how people think and react a fascinating subject and PB is a great place for that sort of thing. There are topics which are run-of-the-mill and others that blaze like glory and wonderfully enlightening.
The rude folk are usually party robots and rarely have an original thought in their heads so your filtering mechanism works for me
There was IIRC an enormous amount of virtue signalling on here about it.
URGH!! Horrible BNP voter!! WASCIST!!! Actually listening to what he was saying was almost never addressed.
IIRC it wasn't until the BNP ended up with a load of Labour council seats and a handful of MEPs that some of the worst Urghers put a cork in it and started to realise that perhaps all these people had genuine concerns and weren't going to be put off by name calling.
It was fascinating when @MrJones used to post and I miss his contributions - he'd voted BNP in frustration and spoke of many issues that have since become very large re Rotherham et al.
He eventually gave in and left - he was Old Labour in the main and very eloquent. Some posters were extremely offensive to him for saying what turned out to be true.
As a newcomer on the left, my experience is that anything much to the left of Blair is marginalised on the site. I think it is telling that the rise of Corbyn has come as a shock to pretty much every poster here, while at the same time Kendall's chances have been overestimated.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
Rewind ten years and there was one person talking about the 'Rotherham' problem. Because that one person was Nick Griffin then what he was (correctly) talking about was dismissed out of hand as being the ramblings of a racist.
There are lessons for us all there, especially those in authority. Lots of people must have known at the time the truth in what Griffin was saying, but nobody dared to speak up for the children.
@JEO I'm not saying that all PBers are Tories, just that most PBers are. Even quite a lot of the Kippers tend to see things from a Conservative perspective - they just tend to be much more to the right, roughly around where Philip Davies et al are. That said, those such as @Sean_F do come across as quite moderate in comparison to a lot of Kippers I've seen (or rather read).
If you add up UKIP + Lib Dems + Labour + Greens + unaligned posters, there are nowhere the Conservatives are a majority.
As for "seeing things from a Conservative perspective", that becomes an issue of extreme subjectivity. If someone believes that immigration should be reduced, then is that a "conservative perspective"? It's about 70% of the UK public. I think there's a basic issue that Labour and Lib Dem activists are substantially to the left of their voter base.
There don't seem to be that many LDs. Only Mike Smithson, and @stodge who post regularly. Is there anyone who votes Green on here? Labour posters as far as I can see are me, @Danny565, and @SouthamObserver. Many Kippers as I've mentioned, tend to see things for a Conservative perspective. Neutrals, as far as I can see are @antifrank and @rcs1000.
On immigration, well it's a right-wing POV, but it's one that most people - including Labour voters - also share. I also believe that immigration needs to be reduced, and I'm on the Left of British politics. I'm also not a Labour activist, nor a member atm (I was once a member, I've never been an activist). I don't think it's that subjective that this site does have a conservative take on things - you can categorise conservative beliefs, much as you can categorise socialist/liberal beliefs. The desire for a small state, and enthusiasm for cuts is arguably a conservative stance. Likewise, the belief in private sector involvement in public services is another POV, that I'd say is a conservative one.
@JEO I'm not saying that all PBers are Tories, just that most PBers are. Even quite a lot of the Kippers tend to see things from a Conservative perspective - they just tend to be much more to the right, roughly around where Philip Davies et al are. That said, those such as @Sean_F do come across as quite moderate in comparison to a lot of Kippers I've seen (or rather read).
If you add up UKIP + Lib Dems + Labour + Greens + unaligned posters, there are nowhere the Conservatives are a majority.
As for "seeing things from a Conservative perspective", that becomes an issue of extreme subjectivity. If someone believes that immigration should be reduced, then is that a "conservative perspective"? It's about 70% of the UK public. I think there's a basic issue that Labour and Lib Dem activists are substantially to the left of their voter base.
There don't seem to be that many LDs. Only Mike Smithson, and @stodge who post regularly. Is there anyone who votes Green on here? Labour posters as far as I can see are me, @Danny565, and @SouthamObserver. Many Kippers as I've mentioned, tend to see things for a Conservative perspective. Neutrals, as far as I can see are @antifrank and @rcs1000.
On immigration, well it's a right-wing POV, but it's one that most people - including Labour voters - also share. I also believe that immigration needs to be reduced, and I'm on the Left of British politics. I'm also not a Labour activist, nor a member atm (I was once a member, I've never been an activist). I don't think it's that subjective that this site does have a conservative take on things - you can categorise conservative beliefs, much as you can categorise socialist/liberal beliefs. The desire for a small state, and enthusiasm for cuts is arguably a conservative stance. Likewise, the belief in private sector involvement in public services is another POV, that I'd say is a conservative one.
To move on from staring at navels, a thought for discussion:
"If, as a result of Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour Party leadership election, the Labour Party instigated policy changes what were unacceptable to a Labour MP and said MP wished to defect to either the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives, do you think said MP should be compelled to fight a by-election under their new colours in the manner of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless?"
I am not really a betting person (except with stocks and shares) but I find how people think and react a fascinating subject and PB is a great place for that sort of thing.
Do you think now is possibly a good time to pick up Oil, Mining or Banks ? Some of the divi yields look decent. Any to avoid (Morrisons ?)
@JEO I'm not saying that all PBers are Tories, just that most PBers are. Even quite a lot of the Kippers tend to see things from a Conservative perspective - they just tend to be much more to the right, roughly around where Philip Davies et al are. That said, those such as @Sean_F do come across as quite moderate in comparison to a lot of Kippers I've seen (or rather read).
If you add up UKIP + Lib Dems + Labour + Greens + unaligned posters, there are nowhere the Conservatives are a majority.
As for "seeing things from a Conservative perspective", that becomes an issue of extreme subjectivity. If someone believes that immigration should be reduced, then is that a "conservative perspective"? It's about 70% of the UK public. I think there's a basic issue that Labour and Lib Dem activists are substantially to the left of their voter base.
There don't seem to be that many LDs. Only Mike Smithson, and @stodge who post regularly. Is there anyone who votes Green on here? Labour posters as far as I can see are me, @Danny565, and @SouthamObserver. Many Kippers as I've mentioned, tend to see things for a Conservative perspective. Neutrals, as far as I can see are @antifrank and @rcs1000.
On immigration, well it's a right-wing POV, but it's one that most people - including Labour voters - also share. I also believe that immigration needs to be reduced, and I'm on the Left of British politics. I'm also not a Labour activist, nor a member atm (I was once a member, I've never been an activist). I don't think it's that subjective that this site does have a conservative take on things - you can categorise conservative beliefs, much as you can categorise socialist/liberal beliefs. The desire for a small state, and enthusiasm for cuts is arguably a conservative stance. Likewise, the belief in private sector involvement in public services is another POV, that I'd say is a conservative one.
You might enjoy the site more if you stopped trying to put posters into pigeon-holes.
As a newcomer on the left, my experience is that anything much to the left of Blair is marginalised on the site. I think it is telling that the rise of Corbyn has come as a shock to pretty much every poster here, while at the same time Kendall's chances have been overestimated.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
Your presence is much appreciated.
Not all of us overrated Liz Kendall. If I were a Labour supporter I wouldn't be tempted by her in the slightest. She's digested all the wrong bits of the last Labour government and come out with the wrong answers. Labour need to offer a broad tent with a hopeful forward-looking agenda. Jeremy Corbyn offers the second but not the first. Liz Kendall aspires to the first but hasn't got a clue about the second.
Labour need to find a way of showing that they don't just hate the world as it is in 2015 and are coming to terms with it, but that they have an idea how to make a good place better. Angry dismal politicians only win on those rare occasions when the public feels angry and dismal.
To move on from staring at navels, a thought for discussion:
"If, as a result of Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour Party leadership election, the Labour Party instigated policy changes what were unacceptable to a Labour MP and said MP wished to defect to either the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives, do you think said MP should be compelled to fight a by-election under their new colours in the manner of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless?"
Yes. Carswell setting that precedent was an excellent development.
If there are to be defections, I suspect they'll be ex-MPs (perhaps peers) from the Blair era.
Yes, but it is still dominated by Conservative commentators, to be point where how this site often sees politics as a whole, and political, economic, or social events is overwhelmingly Conservative. I'd argue this site has far more than a 'mild lean to the right'.
I think you need to separate posters from numbers of posts. There is a majority of pro-Conservative or at the very least anti-Labour posts on this site but that doesn't translate into an equivalent number of posters because there are posters who post relentlessly, day after day and you can tell who they are because they've amassed over 10,000 posts.
There's also the argument that quality is inversely proportional to quantity and your first post will always be your best post.
As for the past, there has always been a strong Conservative presence on this site but as individuals posted less the numbers of posts created a more balanced overview.
The onset of the recession sharpened and antagonised the debate on here noticeably - back in 2005-06 I remember any number of serious constructive discussions with the Conservative and Labour posters on here. I now find a number of the regular Conservative posters on here quite unwilling (or probably unable) to engage in debate beyond re-tweeting someone else's opinions or reaching for the nearest insult or jibe or (worse) sounding like a caricature of one of Billy Bunter's class mates.
SeanT used to be sharp, witty and amusing and it was almost a pleasure to be insulted by him. Unfortunately, writing and rampant europhobia have made him a parody of his once great self. It's all very sad.
SeanT actually scares me, tbh. He said yesterday he used to be hard-right. I can't even begin to imagine what that actually looks like!
Very interesting info on how the recession impacted debate. I do get the sense that discussion can very quickly turn into mockery of your opponent, and that's one of the down sides. I do appreciate @Scott_P posting of tweets, and when they are not just anti-Labour opinions, they can be very informative.
Can anyone point me to a quote saying Corbyn wants to nationalise universities or is it PB Tory hyperbole
The article I read it sounded like he just wanted a free and comprehensive education system, nothing about ownership
It is neither a quote of him saying it nor PB Tory hyperbole. It was merely me asking the question. If "free and comprehensive" are all that are required to be a "National [Sector] Service", then presumably converting to a publicly-funded insurance model to the National Health Service wouldn't be ending the NHS?
Neil was a Greenie but has not been seen since he apologised for urinating in Roger’s SoHo doorway – Fairly sure his disappearance was just a coincidence rather than foul play on Roger’s part.
To move on from staring at navels, a thought for discussion:
"If, as a result of Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour Party leadership election, the Labour Party instigated policy changes what were unacceptable to a Labour MP and said MP wished to defect to either the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives, do you think said MP should be compelled to fight a by-election under their new colours in the manner of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless?"
Mr Carswell certainly set a useful recent precedent in resigning his seat in order to defect, many would say that it is the honorable thing to do.
Better that they are not compelled to resign though, that way we can see who are the honorable ones and who are the opportunists!
Edit: I do sometimes wonder if Mr Carswell still thinks he made the right decision to defect, given all that has happened since.
I am not really a betting person (except with stocks and shares) but I find how people think and react a fascinating subject and PB is a great place for that sort of thing.
Do you think now is possibly a good time to pick up Oil, Mining or Banks ? Some of the divi yields look decent. Any to avoid (Morrisons ?)
I stick with what I know - retail. I did quite well on a short-term investment of Debenhams recently through some CFD trading and there might be some value left there. I should have got on Lloyds back when they were 45p but I took my eye off that particular ball and I regret it.
Morrisons is interesting but Tesco looks a safer bet over the longer term. They are too big and have plenty of difficulties to cause share price drops but essentially they are sound enough. What they really need to do is to realise that the Clubcard thing has run its course and scrap it and take the Asda approach of cutting prices. Tesco currently use the "Tax Credits" model of taking the money off you and then giving some of it back to you. All shoppers see is that they are being overcharged. That is why Aldi, Lidl and Asda are winning.
To move on from staring at navels, a thought for discussion:
"If, as a result of Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour Party leadership election, the Labour Party instigated policy changes what were unacceptable to a Labour MP and said MP wished to defect to either the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives, do you think said MP should be compelled to fight a by-election under their new colours in the manner of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless?"
Yes. Carswell setting that precedent was an excellent development.
If there are to be defections, I suspect they'll be ex-MPs (perhaps peers) from the Blair era.
I'd prefer them to. But in a way I feel that if an MP comes out, explains his position and asks the electorate to trust him until the next election, then so be it. Cynical defectors will always be found out, and I can't help but think that most consitutents would manage fine for a couple of years.
@JEO I'm not saying that all PBers are Tories, just that most PBers are. Even quite a lot of the Kippers tend to see things from a Conservative perspective - they just tend to be much more to the right, roughly around where Philip Davies et al are. That said, those such as @Sean_F do come across as quite moderate in comparison to a lot of Kippers I've seen (or rather read).
If you add up UKIP + Lib Dems + Labour + Greens + unaligned posters, there are nowhere the Conservatives are a majority.
As for "seeing things from a Conservative perspective", that becomes an issue of extreme subjectivity. If someone believes that immigration should be reduced, then is that a "conservative perspective"? It's about 70% of the UK public. I think there's a basic issue that Labour and Lib Dem activists are substantially to the left of their voter base.
There don't seem to be that many LDs. Only Mike Smithson, and @stodge who post regularly. Is there anyone who votes Green on here? Labour posters as far as I can see are me, @Danny565, and @SouthamObserver. Many Kippers as I've mentioned, tend to see things for a Conservative perspective. Neutrals, as far as I can see are @antifrank and @rcs1000.
On immigration, well it's a right-wing POV, but it's one that most people - including Labour voters - also share. I also believe that immigration needs to be reduced, and I'm on the Left of British politics. I'm also not a Labour activist, nor a member atm (I was once a member, I've never been an activist). I don't think it's that subjective that this site does have a conservative take on things - you can categorise conservative beliefs, much as you can categorise socialist/liberal beliefs. The desire for a small state, and enthusiasm for cuts is arguably a conservative stance. Likewise, the belief in private sector involvement in public services is another POV, that I'd say is a conservative one.
If you're counting UKIP voters as being basically Conservatives, then of course Conservatives + UKIP should be a majority. They got a majority of votes at the last election.
As for conservative beliefs, what about capital punishment? I suspect most here are against it, yet it has widespread support from the general public.
I think you may have fallen for his hyperbole. His tales of time in a squat as a heroin addict, on remand for rape [acquitted] et al are most entertaining in the right light...
Yes, but it is still dominated by Conservative commentators, to be point where how this site often sees politics as a whole, and political, economic, or social events is overwhelmingly Conservative. I'd argue this site has far more than a 'mild lean to the right'.
I think you need to separate posters from numbers of posts. There is a majority of pro-Conservative or at the very least anti-Labour posts on this site but that doesn't translate into an equivalent number of posters because there are posters who post relentlessly, day after day and you can tell who they are because they've amassed over 10,000 posts.
There's also the argument that quality is inversely proportional to quantity and your first post will always be your best post.
As for the past, there has always been a strong Conservative presence on this site but as individuals posted less the numbers of posts created a more balanced overview.
The onset of the recession sharpened and antagonised the debate on here noticeably - back in 2005-06 I remember any number of serious constructive discussions with the Conservative and Labour posters on here. I now find a number of the regular Conservative posters on here quite unwilling (or probably unable) to engage in debate beyond re-tweeting someone else's opinions or reaching for the nearest insult or jibe or (worse) sounding like a caricature of one of Billy Bunter's class mates.
SeanT used to be sharp, witty and amusing and it was almost a pleasure to be insulted by him. Unfortunately, writing and rampant europhobia have made him a parody of his once great self. It's all very sad.
SeanT actually scares me, tbh. He said yesterday he used to be hard-right. I can't even begin to imagine what that actually looks like!
Very interesting info on how the recession impacted debate. I do get the sense that discussion can very quickly turn into mockery of your opponent, and that's one of the down sides. I do appreciate @Scott_P posting of tweets, and when they are not just anti-Labour opinions, they can be very informative.
Isn't @David_Evershed a LD? There are quite a few that I couldn't say who they voted for but seem slightly left-of-centre. @foxinsoxuk is a former LD.
Ah, how could I forget @foxinsoxuk! Although I think he is still LD, as he has reported to voting on the LD Leadership contest (I think).
I didn't include @IOS, @compouter1, and @surbition because they don't appear to post anymore. I think @IOS especially won't come back! Yes, you make a good point about @SandyRentool too - I think he's voting for Corbyn. I haven't seen @Neil post, would be quite interesting to hear from a Green!
It was fascinating when @MrJones used to post and I miss his contributions - he'd voted BNP in frustration and spoke of many issues that have since become very large re Rotherham et al.
He eventually gave in and left - he was Old Labour in the main and very eloquent. Some posters were extremely offensive to him for saying what turned out to be true.
As a newcomer on the left, my experience is that anything much to the left of Blair is marginalised on the site. I think it is telling that the rise of Corbyn has come as a shock to pretty much every poster here, while at the same time Kendall's chances have been overestimated.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
Rewind ten years and there was one person talking about the 'Rotherham' problem. Because that one person was Nick Griffin then what he was (correctly) talking about was dismissed out of hand as being the ramblings of a racist.
There are lessons for us all there, especially those in authority. Lots of people must have known at the time the truth in what Griffin was saying, but nobody dared to speak up for the children.
A major problem was what else Griffin was saying and had said, as well as the friends that he kept (keeps) - Jewish conspiracies, white supremacy, holocaust denial etc. When you spend your time screaming out extreme right wing views you are going to find it very hard to get any kind of hearing from anyone mainstream. He made it very easy for what he said to be ignored. Likewise, those preaching politically correct dogma make it very easy for lazy, stupid people to hide behind that instead of doing what they should have done - which is also what happened in Rotherham (and various other places, including, it seems, Buckingham, most recently).
Isn't @David_Evershed a LD? There are quite a few that I couldn't say who they voted for but seem slightly left-of-centre. @foxinsoxuk is a former LD.
Ah, how could I forget @foxinsoxuk! Although I think he is still LD, as he has reported to voting on the LD Leadership contest (I think).
I didn't include @IOS, @compouter1, and @surbition because they don't appear to post anymore. I think @IOS especially won't come back! Yes, you make a good point about @SandyRentool too - I think he's voting for Corbyn. I haven't seen @Neil post, would be quite interesting to hear from a Green!
To move on from staring at navels, a thought for discussion:
"If, as a result of Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour Party leadership election, the Labour Party instigated policy changes what were unacceptable to a Labour MP and said MP wished to defect to either the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives, do you think said MP should be compelled to fight a by-election under their new colours in the manner of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless?"
Yes. Carswell setting that precedent was an excellent development.
If there are to be defections, I suspect they'll be ex-MPs (perhaps peers) from the Blair era.
I'd prefer them to. But in a way I feel that if an MP comes out, explains his position and asks the electorate to trust him until the next election, then so be it. Cynical defectors will always be found out, and I can't help but think that most consitutents would manage fine for a couple of years.
I think I'd tolerate an MP resigning his current whip and acting as an independent. Signing up to another side isn't really on. Of course, in practical voting terms there may not be much difference.
As a newcomer on the left, my experience is that anything much to the left of Blair is marginalised on the site. I think it is telling that the rise of Corbyn has come as a shock to pretty much every poster here, while at the same time Kendall's chances have been overestimated.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
Your presence is much appreciated.
Not all of us overrated Liz Kendall. If I were a Labour supporter I wouldn't be tempted by her in the slightest. She's digested all the wrong bits of the last Labour government and come out with the wrong answers. Labour need to offer a broad tent with a hopeful forward-looking agenda. Jeremy Corbyn offers the second but not the first. Liz Kendall aspires to the first but hasn't got a clue about the second.
Labour need to find a way of showing that they don't just hate the world as it is in 2015 and are coming to terms with it, but that they have an idea how to make a good place better. Angry dismal politicians only win on those rare occasions when the public feels angry and dismal.
A friend of mine is a defeated Labour candidate (not that she expected to win where she was standing). About a year ago, we were discussing who she thought were the next generation of potential Labour stars and, particularly, women politicians. She mentioned Stella Creasey and Liz Kendall (and a few others). So I was not entirely surprised to see her put her name forward. But I think she has disappointed and would have done better to wait and gain some more experience and thought a bit more about what she was offering. She has made it too easy to be painted as the Blairite candidate which is toxic in today's Labour party. Of course sometimes you have to seize your moment because it may not come again.
The question for her is whether she will be able to learn the lessons and come back again in a few years time or whether she ends up being too damaged.
Isn't @David_Evershed a LD? There are quite a few that I couldn't say who they voted for but seem slightly left-of-centre. @foxinsoxuk is a former LD.
Ah, how could I forget @foxinsoxuk! Although I think he is still LD, as he has reported to voting on the LD Leadership contest (I think).
I didn't include @IOS, @compouter1, and @surbition because they don't appear to post anymore. I think @IOS especially won't come back! Yes, you make a good point about @SandyRentool too - I think he's voting for Corbyn. I haven't seen @Neil post, would be quite interesting to hear from a Green!
I think antifrank is intending to found the London Lawyers' Party LLP (LLPLLP for short).
These two marginalised factions are severely underappreciated by the country at large.
To move on from staring at navels, a thought for discussion:
"If, as a result of Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour Party leadership election, the Labour Party instigated policy changes what were unacceptable to a Labour MP and said MP wished to defect to either the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives, do you think said MP should be compelled to fight a by-election under their new colours in the manner of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless?"
Yes. Carswell setting that precedent was an excellent development.
If there are to be defections, I suspect they'll be ex-MPs (perhaps peers) from the Blair era.
I'd prefer them to. But in a way I feel that if an MP comes out, explains his position and asks the electorate to trust him until the next election, then so be it. Cynical defectors will always be found out, and I can't help but think that most consitutents would manage fine for a couple of years.
I think I'd tolerate an MP resigning his current whip and acting as an independent. Signing up to another side isn't really on. Of course, in practical voting terms there may not be much difference.
I can see the appeal but it seems disingenuous if you are going to vote with another party and/or stand for that party at the next election.
To move on from staring at navels, a thought for discussion:
"If, as a result of Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour Party leadership election, the Labour Party instigated policy changes what were unacceptable to a Labour MP and said MP wished to defect to either the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives, do you think said MP should be compelled to fight a by-election under their new colours in the manner of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless?"
Yes. Carswell setting that precedent was an excellent development.
If there are to be defections, I suspect they'll be ex-MPs (perhaps peers) from the Blair era.
Whilst I think that they *should* - I don't see anything that *compels* them to. Clearly if they were defecting to UKIP then it would be very hard for UKIP to change tack (and Carswell would have a wobbly if they tried) - but if they were a Progress / Blairite Labour member defecting to the Lib Dems (for example) I would think that they could get away with 'the Labour party has left me' and whilst there would be grumbling they could probably sit it out.
Sandy is the Diane Abbot of this parish on the Labour leadership, the only one voting so far as I can tell with genuine enthusiasm and verve for Corbyn.
Owls and Tyson are too, but hope for a leadership contest between now and 2020 so far as I recall.
Isn't @David_Evershed a LD? There are quite a few that I couldn't say who they voted for but seem slightly left-of-centre. @foxinsoxuk is a former LD.
Ah, how could I forget @foxinsoxuk! Although I think he is still LD, as he has reported to voting on the LD Leadership contest (I think).
I didn't include @IOS, @compouter1, and @surbition because they don't appear to post anymore. I think @IOS especially won't come back! Yes, you make a good point about @SandyRentool too - I think he's voting for Corbyn. I haven't seen @Neil post, would be quite interesting to hear from a Green!
In addition BenM as well. a lot of the labour posters are in mourning and aren't don't post at the moment, but i'm sure that will change over time.
I voted Green in 2010 and Lib Dem in 2015. I wouldn't see myself as a close supporter of either party. They remain the two parties I would be most likely to vote for at present.
If hypothetically Jeremy Corbyn were to lead the Labour party in 2020 and the Conservatives weren't led by someone completely loopy, I would seriously consider voting Conservative despite all their flaws.
Conversely, if Labour were led by someone moderate in 2020 and the Conservatives were led by Owen Paterson, I would seriously consider voting Labour despite all their flaws.
The risks of standing up to be counted are great - Stella went for Deputy instead to show willing. I admire Liz for trying and maybe when the Party regains their commonsense she'll wear her scars with pride.
She's at least standing against the tide. Courageous as Sir Humphrey would say.
As a newcomer on the left, my experience is that anything much to the left of Blair is marginalised on the site. I think it is telling that the rise of Corbyn has come as a shock to pretty much every poster here, while at the same time Kendall's chances have been overestimated.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
Your presence is much appreciated.
Not all of us overrated Liz Kendall. If I were a Labour supporter I wouldn't be tempted by her in the slightest. She's digested all the wrong bits of the last Labour government and come out with the wrong answers. Labour need to offer a broad tent with a hopeful forward-looking agenda. Jeremy Corbyn offers the second but not the first. Liz Kendall aspires to the first but hasn't got a clue about the second.
Labour need to find a way of showing that they don't just hate the world as it is in 2015 and are coming to terms with it, but that they have an idea how to make a good place better. Angry dismal politicians only win on those rare occasions when the public feels angry and dismal.
A friend of mine is a defeated Labour candidate (not that she expected to win where she was standing). About a year ago, we were discussing who she thought were the next generation of potential Labour stars and, particularly, women politicians. She mentioned Stella Creasey and Liz Kendall (and a few others). So I was not entirely surprised to see her put her name forward. But I think she has disappointed and would have done better to wait and gain some more experience and thought a bit more about what she was offering. She has made it too easy to be painted as the Blairite candidate which is toxic in today's Labour party. Of course sometimes you have to seize your moment because it may not come again.
The question for her is whether she will be able to learn the lessons and come back again in a few years time or whether she ends up being too damaged.
If you're counting UKIP voters as being basically Conservatives, then of course Conservatives + UKIP should be a majority. They got a majority of votes at the last election.
As for conservative beliefs, what about capital punishment? I suspect most here are against it, yet it has widespread support from the general public.
Yes, but in terms of attitudes/beliefs they are not as in sync generally, as they are on this. BAS showed that UKIP supporters, while having socially conservative attitudes on matters such as the death penalty, were more economically left-wing, in caring about inequality and feeling the system wasn't giving them a fair deal. Whereas on this site, the UKippers tend to tilt to the right on social, and economic issues. There's also the difference between being a floating voter and voting Conservative, to being a regular Conservative voter.
Capital Punishment does have support, although this has been declining generally - I suspect at some point most will not be in favour of it.
Isn't @David_Evershed a LD? There are quite a few that I couldn't say who they voted for but seem slightly left-of-centre. @foxinsoxuk is a former LD.
Ah, how could I forget @foxinsoxuk! Although I think he is still LD, as he has reported to voting on the LD Leadership contest (I think).
I didn't include @IOS, @compouter1, and @surbition because they don't appear to post anymore. I think @IOS especially won't come back! Yes, you make a good point about @SandyRentool too - I think he's voting for Corbyn. I haven't seen @Neil post, would be quite interesting to hear from a Green!
I think antifrank is intending to found the London Lawyers' Party LLP (LLPLLP for short).
These two marginalised factions are severely underappreciated by the country at large.
Can anyone point me to a quote saying Corbyn wants to nationalise universities or is it PB Tory hyperbole
The article I read it sounded like he just wanted a free and comprehensive education system, nothing about ownership
What then is the difference between a National Education Service and the free state-run comprehensive system we have now?
I suspect Corbyn would favour abolition of Private schools - and there are plenty in the Labour Party who would support that. I don't know if he said it however.
Isn't @David_Evershed a LD? There are quite a few that I couldn't say who they voted for but seem slightly left-of-centre. @foxinsoxuk is a former LD.
Ah, how could I forget @foxinsoxuk! Although I think he is still LD, as he has reported to voting on the LD Leadership contest (I think).
I didn't include @IOS, @compouter1, and @surbition because they don't appear to post anymore. I think @IOS especially won't come back! Yes, you make a good point about @SandyRentool too - I think he's voting for Corbyn. I haven't seen @Neil post, would be quite interesting to hear from a Green!
I think antifrank is intending to found the London Lawyers' Party LLP (LLPLLP for short).
These two marginalised factions are severely underappreciated by the country at large.
I'm in Birmingham today. I've had my inoculations and my visas were in order.
The problem for the Conservatives is that there were, I suspect, a number (and I can't quantify it) of voters who, although voting Conservative in May, were in fact voting for David Cameron. As we know from the polls, Cameron is more popular than his Party and on that basis alone it's probably fair to argue the "Cameron factor" helped lift the Conservatives across the line from Hung Parliament to majority territory.
While true, there are equally a fair few kippers that voted for Cameron through gritted teeth as the lesser of two evils compared to Ed Miliband, and a fair few Tories (such as myself) who voted Conservative despite Cameron, who they have no time for, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Farage. I either case the vote wasn't for Cameron per se it was a "not for the other idiot" vote, and those people might be better disposed to his successor. If is Osborne, of course I wont see replacing a metro liberal elite with an even more metro, even more liberal elite as an improvement.
Isn't @David_Evershed a LD? There are quite a few that I couldn't say who they voted for but seem slightly left-of-centre. @foxinsoxuk is a former LD.
Ah, how could I forget @foxinsoxuk! Although I think he is still LD, as he has reported to voting on the LD Leadership contest (I think).
I didn't include @IOS, @compouter1, and @surbition because they don't appear to post anymore. I think @IOS especially won't come back! Yes, you make a good point about @SandyRentool too - I think he's voting for Corbyn. I haven't seen @Neil post, would be quite interesting to hear from a Green!
I think antifrank is intending to found the London Lawyers' Party LLP (LLPLLP for short).
These two marginalised factions are severely underappreciated by the country at large.
I'm in Birmingham today. I've had my inoculations and my visas were in order.
That's the South as far as I'm concerned. (Full disclosure: born and brought up in London).
Can anyone point me to a quote saying Corbyn wants to nationalise universities or is it PB Tory hyperbole
The article I read it sounded like he just wanted a free and comprehensive education system, nothing about ownership
What then is the difference between a National Education Service and the free state-run comprehensive system we have now?
I suspect Corbyn would favour abolition of Private schools - and there are plenty in the Labour Party who would support that. I don't know if he said it however.
I wonder how 'legal' that would be. The only way i would think you could do it would be to enforce attendence at a state school, but then you run into all sorts of problems (home schooling, etc etc).
Then of course theres a pratical issue of how you deal with an extra 600,000 plus school places needing to be found.... It would crash the state sector.
I know it's a fantasy/wish of many of the left, but its an fantasy.
''I suspect Corbyn would favour abolition of Private schools - and there are plenty in the Labour Party who would support that. I don't know if he said it however. ''
You'd have thought state control would be central to Corbyn. No private, free or academies. Just bog standard comps controlled by LEAs with weak or non-existent measures of achievement.
But the point that we are putting words into Corbyn's mouth is well made.
If you're counting UKIP voters as being basically Conservatives, then of course Conservatives + UKIP should be a majority. They got a majority of votes at the last election.
As for conservative beliefs, what about capital punishment? I suspect most here are against it, yet it has widespread support from the general public.
Yes, but in terms of attitudes/beliefs they are not as in sync generally, as they are on this. BAS showed that UKIP supporters, while having socially conservative attitudes on matters such as the death penalty, were more economically left-wing, in caring about inequality and feeling the system wasn't giving them a fair deal. Whereas on this site, the UKippers tend to tilt to the right on social, and economic issues. There's also the difference between being a floating voter and voting Conservative, to being a regular Conservative voter.
Capital Punishment does have support, although this has been declining generally - I suspect at some point most will not be in favour of it.
The problem for the Conservatives is that there were, I suspect, a number (and I can't quantify it) of voters who, although voting Conservative in May, were in fact voting for David Cameron. As we know from the polls, Cameron is more popular than his Party and on that basis alone it's probably fair to argue the "Cameron factor" helped lift the Conservatives across the line from Hung Parliament to majority territory.
While true, there are equally a fair few kippers that voted for Cameron through gritted teeth as the lesser of two evils compared to Ed Miliband, and a fair few Tories (such as myself) who voted Conservative despite Cameron, who they have no time for, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Farage. I either case the vote wasn't for Cameron per se it was a "not for the other idiot" vote, and those people might be better disposed to his successor. If is Osborne, of course I wont see replacing a metro liberal elite with an even more metro, even more liberal elite as an improvement.
Twas ever thus. I suspect that a high percentage of people voted for what they saw as the lesser of the evils and I'm sure that made for strange bedfellows. Thank FPTP for that.
Comments
People are fed up with scripted, media trained, robotic, politicians who spout the same well rehearsed mantra, and strap lines.
Authenticity is something that you have either have or don't. You cannot learn it, and if you tried to learn it you simply come across as less authentic. Osborne's development of an estuary twang is a case in point.
Jeremy Hunt is the stand out Tory front bencher, hands down. He's got believability- I don't know how, but he's got it. So too has Boris. So too has Zak Goldsmith.
On the editorial line, yes but the site's 'narrative' does tend to emerge from the comments' section, which has I said previously generally has a Conservative 'take' on events.
@Morris_Dancer Thanks for that information. It would be interesting to hear from more LDs on matters. As for the nation going more rightwards, I would argue this nation has always been right-wing on immigration. It's just that when the issue is controlled, it's seen as a non-issue and so less is spoken of it. On the economy, I'm not so sure. People aren't excited or enthused by austerity - they regard cuts as a realistic necessity. There still seems to be quite a bit of anger at bankers, and their bonuses, too.
A study of PBers will show that there are quite a few who have significant UK and international experience in various fields and at a high level. It is that which can make PB so interesting at times. BTW as a one who is well below the average age here, why does PB attract you among the wide number of political bogs.
Yet whilst I voted Conservative at the GE, I voted for the Labour candidate at the locals, because he was the best candidate.
I'm more likely to vote Lib Dem than Labour at the moment, but if Labour had someone half sane at the helm then I'd be open to them. They have not since about 2005, IMHO.
I don't think world leaders read BTL on any form of media, surely?
Really, not quite my re-collection Plato. In the early, early days, aside from Sean Fear, there were Benedict White, seanT, Peter from Putney, Commentator, David Herdson etc, etc...... This site has always been right leaning, and has shifted more to the right as the lefties have been pushed out (Tim) or bailed out- Snowflake.
I've been saying all along, even before Corbyn joined the race, that there was a need and a hunger for an anti-austerity alternative. Three days after he announced his candidacy I posted on here, saying his chances were being wildly underestimated and if he did get on the ballot he'd be in with a real shout. He was over 100/1 at the time, he is now 3/1.
Feeling more confident every day - tyson has a good point about "believability" - but how come Cons have 3+ and Labour have only 1 - Jezza.
It was Gordon that firmly pushed me from New Labour in the end/lying about Iraq by Tony though I had no problem with the war per se.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/hungary-post-race-analysis.html
Interesting question in the comments regarding whether Hamilton's worth backing for the title at 1.25.
I wonder if it's just geographically determined (even locally, North Yorkshire is Toryland, and South Yorkshire is referred to as The People's Republic of South Yorkshire).
It's understandable that the left might be quieter after five years of Miliband, the unexpected woe of the General Election, and their current leadership issues.
On topic, this is reminiscent of Boris Johnson's pledge in the 2012 London Mayoral campaign that he wouldn't seek to return to Westminster during his Mayoral term and he drove a coach and horses through that so perhaps we should treat Cameron's "pledge" with similar contempt or at the very least caution.
The problem for the Conservatives is that there were, I suspect, a number (and I can't quantify it) of voters who, although voting Conservative in May, were in fact voting for David Cameron. As we know from the polls, Cameron is more popular than his Party and on that basis alone it's probably fair to argue the "Cameron factor" helped lift the Conservatives across the line from Hung Parliament to majority territory.
My suspicion is a number of ex-LD voters, especially in LD constituencies, abandoned the party when the possibility of a Lab-LD deal was raised and baulked at the prospect of a Lab-SNP deal. "The fear" (no disrespect to Sean) was enough to send them into the Cameron (as distinct from the Conservative) camp.
How do the Conservatives keep the non-Tory Cameroons on board with a new leader ? This may be behind the new will he go, won't he go dithering. The curious relationship between Osborne, who effectively runs the Party and the Government and Cameron, who he needs to keep in that position because he (Osborne) knows he will never have the popular empathy Cameron enjoys, is at the heart of this.
We've already seen with the Heathrow runway issue that once Cameron is out of the picture, all kinds of internal wrangling are going to engulf the Conservatives though I'm sure all the Tories on here will vehemently deny it. Osborne probably knows in his heart he may be leader but he'll be as successful as Gordon Brown so he's left to try to manipulate the new leader but the Mays, Hammonds and Johnsons of this world owe him nothing so he'll need someone he can "control" like Javid to come through the middle.
For all the gleeful enjoyment the Tories on here have taken from the Labour leadership race, there'll be plenty of fun for the rest of us when the blue ferrets start arguing in their sack.;
He eventually gave in and left - he was Old Labour in the main and very eloquent. Some posters were extremely offensive to him for saying what turned out to be true.
Another strand to the Labour leadership battle is suspicions from senior Labour sources that SNP supporters are in the £3 game:
" A senior Labour insider said: There is definitely entryism going on; the question is whether or not it is on an industrial scale. "
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13500612.SNP_supporters_have_infiltrated_Labour_leadership_contest_to_swing_it_for_Corbyn__party_source_claims/
Personally I wouldn't give much credence to this story as SLAB membership and registered supporters is reputedly in the 12,000 to 15,000 area. If this had gone up substantially SLAB would have been carpet bombing twitter and John McT would have taken to the airwaves blowing his trumpet. Its worth remembering that SLAB were recently expelling members who voted SNP - I think even SLAB would be able to filter out SNP infiltrators.
I suspect tim left because he could see the writing on the wall. Whilst many think Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister was originated by JackW, it was actually my good self who came up with it. I was winding up tim around the time of the omnishambles budget. I went on the record saying, as above, that Ed Miliband WIll Never Be Prime Minister. I taunted tim to go on the record and say that he would. He declined.
Can you imagine the grief tim would have endured these past three months if he had still been here? He was one of the best at dishing it out. Not the best at taking it. He had an excuse to leave early - he took it.
Just the two in Nottingham have balance sheets not far short of a billion, so the whole shebang must be 200 billion plus.
Or is it back to Property is Theft and the Government is Stealing It All?
In regards to PB - well the political blogs I'm aware of, don't generally tend to attract a lot of young people anyway. There's the Guardian's blogs, but I've lurked on CIF for a long-time, and I've never really liked CIFers one iota. They are far too ideological and divisive for me, and CIF generally is like an echo-chamber. The Telegraph comments' section is exactly the same, except that members there also throw some sexism and racism into the mix - which isn't exactly nice to read. Their devotion to Nigel Farage is also really weird. The Guido Fawkes comments' section, in his blog is just a mess. There is no room for any kind of constructive discussion. A lot of the Labour/Left-wing blogs - such as Labourlist etc. have been swinging into CIF territory of deranged idealogues for a long time now.
It's finally gone cuckoo, since Corbyn's ascension. Twitter, doesn't lend itself to an interesting discussion of politics, and has become an awful echo-chamber as well, as opposed to reflecting a wide-spectrum of views.
I also was interested in different views to mind, and in particular 'neutral' views - of those who didn't have a devout belief in a particular party, or ideology. Although PB tends to attract Conservatives/right-wingers, there are a fair few PBers who come across is impartial too - something which seemed very difficult to find on other political blogs. Also, @JEO does make a good point when he says PBers, for the most part can discuss politics in a respectful manner. This doesn't seem to be case on many other political blogs, which seem to attract really extreme types.
https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/tomandjerry580.png?w=540&h=405
It's not like Scotland...
Thankfully, that ring-leader poster has moved to Twitter.
There's also the argument that quality is inversely proportional to quantity and your first post will always be your best post.
As for the past, there has always been a strong Conservative presence on this site but as individuals posted less the numbers of posts created a more balanced overview.
The onset of the recession sharpened and antagonised the debate on here noticeably - back in 2005-06 I remember any number of serious constructive discussions with the Conservative and Labour posters on here. I now find a number of the regular Conservative posters on here quite unwilling (or probably unable) to engage in debate beyond re-tweeting someone else's opinions or reaching for the nearest insult or jibe or (worse) sounding like a caricature of one of Billy Bunter's class mates.
SeanT used to be sharp, witty and amusing and it was almost a pleasure to be insulted by him. Unfortunately, writing and rampant europhobia have made him a parody of his once great self. It's all very sad.
Says it all really...
I could see the Lib Dems regaining a handful of seats from the Conservatives, but their problem is that in many of the seats they lost in 2010 and 2015, the Conservatives have massive leads. What's more, new Conservative MPs have the chance to build up the sort of incumbency votes that the Lib Dems used to have.
Unfortunately for Labour, I just don't think there is a majority that can be achieved in England and Wales for a truly socialist programme.
As pointed out - the Labour posters have not much to crow about - there seemed to be plenty every time YG, Com Res or Survation poll had Ed ahead by 2-3 points.
This site has some tribal posters who aren't afraid to call out their own side- Kippers and Cons (including myself) - I am more than happy to call out the Cons when they follow the wrong path - if they back Heathrow over Boris Island I'll be disappointed.
@SunPolitics: Alex Salmond hails Jeremy Corbyn as “a serious politician” http://t.co/sqjQp84XqT http://t.co/VNjj37MTws
The article I read it sounded like he just wanted a free and comprehensive education system, nothing about ownership
On topic - if Labour is due to self-destruct and if Cameron was putting the good of the party first, surely he should go and allow a new leader time to bed in and be an obvious alternative to the hapless labour leader.
I do not know who will win the Labour Leader's job, but none of the candidates have what it takes IMO. Out here in the real world, most people I have spoken to discount Liz Kendall, they think that Corbyn is genuine but unelectable and most wonder who Yvette is. That leaves Andy Burnham.
Errr....
As for "seeing things from a Conservative perspective", that becomes an issue of extreme subjectivity. If someone believes that immigration should be reduced, then is that a "conservative perspective"? It's about 70% of the UK public. I think there's a basic issue that Labour and Lib Dem activists are substantially to the left of their voter base.
There are lessons for us all there, especially those in authority. Lots of people must have known at the time the truth in what Griffin was saying, but nobody dared to speak up for the children.
17%! have a positive view of Labour, 68% have a negative view. 4% say Labour's behaviour post-election makes them view the party more positively. 36% say their behaviour makes them view the party more negatively.
It is nice to dip in every so often and my latest recipe is simple but fun. I may post it up later if I get a moment.
If you're going to bet your money it's best to be well informed based on the facts rather than wishful thinking. For example there were Kippers on here who thought that UKIP could hold the balance of power or get 100+ seats at GE 2015.
The secret is in deciding who is posting on what basis and that's tricky. One pointer is to ignore those who are rude.
I have to say, I did think you were a Conservative, although you come across as quite moderate. I think reading the Telegraph/Mail comments' sections has scarred me in regards to very Right-Wing Tories!
I think you have a very good point in regards to Labour's succession of poor leaders - Brown, Miliband, Cooper/Burnham/Corbyn/Kendall....
I actually think, now looking back on it, that Miliband was so bad Brown was actually a better leader than him. I wish David had become leader - I feel Labour would be in a far better place now, if had been. I completely agree with @tyson's take on Ed Miliband. He wasted five years.
I didn't mind Cameron from 2010-12, but since 2012, I've been more and more critical of him.
@MyBurningEars That's a good point. This site (when we had a million polls everyday) also used to get polls a bit earlier than UKPR. On world leaders, well given how so many are communicating through Twitter (as I discovered during the Greek Crisis Part 104), I wouldn't be surprised. Angela Merkel even has an instagram (why?)!
@Theuniondivvie Heh, I think you have a point there....
@handandmouse I completely agree everything to left of Blair is marginalised. There also seems to be an expectation that Labour members should worship him in the same way Tories worship Thatcher.
@felix Somehow, I doubt this site would be full of lefties if Ed Miliband had won. I think many PB Tories would be here, predicting the end was nigh! I agree about compouter - he's nowhere to be seen.
That job will of course be considerably easier if Mr Corbyn is fighting for the Red corner, much less so if he is replaced with a Kendall or Jarvis nearer the election though.
As you rightly say, you, Casino, Bob Sykes and others on what I could call the "right" have on occasions criticised the Conservative leadership just as I have been critical of the LD leadership on occasions.
There are, I would argue, more posts today from posters who are totally uncritical of their own side and spend their whole time attacking the opposition parties and their posters more, I suspect, from a desire to provoke a response from anything else.
I shouldn't have responded to Felix this morning - he's completely incapable of criticising the Conservative Party but he enjoys provoking opposition posters by small-minded cheap jibes.
I'm afraid that's become the norm on here and it certainly wasn't the case a few years ago.
The rude folk are usually party robots and rarely have an original thought in their heads so your filtering mechanism works for me
URGH!! Horrible BNP voter!! WASCIST!!! Actually listening to what he was saying was almost never addressed.
IIRC it wasn't until the BNP ended up with a load of Labour council seats and a handful of MEPs that some of the worst Urghers put a cork in it and started to realise that perhaps all these people had genuine concerns and weren't going to be put off by name calling.
On immigration, well it's a right-wing POV, but it's one that most people - including Labour voters - also share. I also believe that immigration needs to be reduced, and I'm on the Left of British politics. I'm also not a Labour activist, nor a member atm (I was once a member, I've never been an activist). I don't think it's that subjective that this site does have a conservative take on things - you can categorise conservative beliefs, much as you can categorise socialist/liberal beliefs. The desire for a small state, and enthusiasm for cuts is arguably a conservative stance. Likewise, the belief in private sector involvement in public services is another POV, that I'd say is a conservative one.
Isn't @David_Evershed a LD? There are quite a few that I couldn't say who they voted for but seem slightly left-of-centre. @foxinsoxuk is a former LD.
"If, as a result of Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour Party leadership election, the Labour Party instigated policy changes what were unacceptable to a Labour MP and said MP wished to defect to either the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives, do you think said MP should be compelled to fight a by-election under their new colours in the manner of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless?"
Not all of us overrated Liz Kendall. If I were a Labour supporter I wouldn't be tempted by her in the slightest. She's digested all the wrong bits of the last Labour government and come out with the wrong answers. Labour need to offer a broad tent with a hopeful forward-looking agenda. Jeremy Corbyn offers the second but not the first. Liz Kendall aspires to the first but hasn't got a clue about the second.
Labour need to find a way of showing that they don't just hate the world as it is in 2015 and are coming to terms with it, but that they have an idea how to make a good place better. Angry dismal politicians only win on those rare occasions when the public feels angry and dismal.
If there are to be defections, I suspect they'll be ex-MPs (perhaps peers) from the Blair era.
Very interesting info on how the recession impacted debate. I do get the sense that discussion can very quickly turn into mockery of your opponent, and that's one of the down sides. I do appreciate @Scott_P posting of tweets, and when they are not just anti-Labour opinions, they can be very informative.
Better that they are not compelled to resign though, that way we can see who are the honorable ones and who are the opportunists!
Edit: I do sometimes wonder if Mr Carswell still thinks he made the right decision to defect, given all that has happened since.
Morrisons is interesting but Tesco looks a safer bet over the longer term. They are too big and have plenty of difficulties to cause share price drops but essentially they are sound enough. What they really need to do is to realise that the Clubcard thing has run its course and scrap it and take the Asda approach of cutting prices. Tesco currently use the "Tax Credits" model of taking the money off you and then giving some of it back to you. All shoppers see is that they are being overcharged. That is why Aldi, Lidl and Asda are winning.
As for conservative beliefs, what about capital punishment? I suspect most here are against it, yet it has widespread support from the general public.
What then is the difference between a National Education Service and the free state-run comprehensive system we have now?
I think you may have fallen for his hyperbole. His tales of time in a squat as a heroin addict, on remand for rape [acquitted] et al are most entertaining in the right light...
I didn't include @IOS, @compouter1, and @surbition because they don't appear to post anymore. I think @IOS especially won't come back! Yes, you make a good point about @SandyRentool too - I think he's voting for Corbyn. I haven't seen @Neil post, would be quite interesting to hear from a Green!
The question for her is whether she will be able to learn the lessons and come back again in a few years time or whether she ends up being too damaged.
These two marginalised factions are severely underappreciated by the country at large.
Owls and Tyson are too, but hope for a leadership contest between now and 2020 so far as I recall.
If hypothetically Jeremy Corbyn were to lead the Labour party in 2020 and the Conservatives weren't led by someone completely loopy, I would seriously consider voting Conservative despite all their flaws.
Conversely, if Labour were led by someone moderate in 2020 and the Conservatives were led by Owen Paterson, I would seriously consider voting Labour despite all their flaws.
She's at least standing against the tide. Courageous as Sir Humphrey would say.
Capital Punishment does have support, although this has been declining generally - I suspect at some point most will not be in favour of it.
Then of course theres a pratical issue of how you deal with an extra 600,000 plus school places needing to be found.... It would crash the state sector.
I know it's a fantasy/wish of many of the left, but its an fantasy.
You'd have thought state control would be central to Corbyn. No private, free or academies. Just bog standard comps controlled by LEAs with weak or non-existent measures of achievement.
But the point that we are putting words into Corbyn's mouth is well made.
I think what this thread diversion has shown is that there's a very broad church on PB. What drives the post volumes is the prevailing narrative.
If the Tories screw up - lots of Labourites jump in to tee-hee and visa versa = lots of Tory tittering right now.