It's hard to see Corbyn not winning now. He said a lot of popularist stuff today about big corporations benefiting from taxpayer investment and avoiding tax. It will resonate. Clearly, he speaks a lot of nonsense, but superficially it makes sense and speaks to frustrations a lot of Labour-inclined voters feel. He'll lose Labour stacks of marginals but will win back disenchanted voters in a fair few northern seats. Takeaway immigration and what Corbyn is offering is Old Labour.
Right wing press trying to get the contest abandoned as the wrong result is about to occur shocker.
From the POV of the right wing press, the right result is about to occur.
As a kipper and ex Tory this must be bitter sweet. This is the sort of thing you always wanted to happen to the Tory party.
It will help UKIP and the no campaign if Corbyn wins . If Corbyn gets of the fence, and states he wants to leave the EU. This would also help the SNP on getting another Independence Referendum.
The right and and left could then combine on leaving. Which at the moment seems to me the best position for England.
Not necessarily, Corbyn would be de facto leader of the No campaign, campaigning alongside Farage and Hannan. Cameron would be de facto leader of the Yes campaign, campaigning alongside Sturgeon, Farron and Blairites in Labour. It would be the 2 left and right wings for No with the centre in England, Wales and Scotland for Yes
Sturgeon would never campaign alongside Cameron. Also Sturgeon would hope the UK wide referendum would vote no, with a big scottish yes. This making the SNP argument for Independence even stronger.
I will be voting no to the EU and this is one of the reasons why. So England will at last gets its own parliament.
It's hard to see Corbyn not winning now. He said a lot of popularist stuff today about big corporations benefiting from taxpayer investment and avoiding tax. It will resonate. Clearly, he speaks a lot of nonsense, but superficially it makes sense and speaks to frustrations a lot of Labour-inclined voters feel. He'll lose Labour stacks of marginals but will win back disenchanted voters in a fair few northern seats. Takeaway immigration and what Corbyn is offering is Old Labour.
If he doesn't win, but places second, then there will be a rather large impetus to shift the party leftwards.
Of the Labour MPs now, a fair slab are newbies - the rest are so many no-marks and those who don't want to get involved in a race this time around/standing for deputy instead to show willing.
It's understandable self-preservation, but it's a sad reflection that the runners are so lightweight.
All Cameron needs now to secure a double-digit lead is Corbyn to win and a war to kick off with Argentina.
But seriously, as many have pointed out, the fact that the four potential Labour leaders are all so poor (in differing ways) does say something about the health of the Labour party. As does the massive schism between Labour members/supporters on the one hand and Labour parliamentarians on the other.
The Labour MPs talent pool has suffered from a series of major faults:- 1. The effect of Brown crushing the careers of rivals. Many forced to retire early. 2. The efect of Unite and other unions backing their choice of candidates for CLP selections. 3. The effect of All Women Selections reducing the chances of males, a selection based on gender and union influence and not ability. 4. The proliferation of SPADs becoming MPs. Again selection from a narrower talent pool.
All you need to know about the woeful state of Labour's options is summed up by Lucy Powell, MP. How did someone that Edstone monumentally awful even get on a short-list? How bad must the others at the selection meeting have been?
Given the rising panic in the Labour and left leaning MSM around Corbyn, the prospect of yet another bloody nose for the Westminster Bubble establishment is looking increasingly likely, I'm sure the right leaning MSM will join in as the reality that Corbyn may win sets in. The MSM's ability to influence events is starting to be really tested.
Should Corbyn win I'd envisage he'll focus his efforts on the 16 million DNVs and the few million not registered to vote, which was a rich seam of votes mined by the SNP.
What's Corbyn's other though? The SNP has Westminster and a very simple solution: independence.
''I honestly haven't been so gobsmacked with politics since 1983. This is hilariously bonkers.''
I think its worse than 1983. In 1983 labour still had a huge rank and file mass manufacturing membership. And it had plenty of causes to fight. And it had Scotland.
Now...??
In 1983 though Labour was split facing the SDP and Roy Jenkins and David Owen winning centrist voters, Tim Farron is in no way comparable and the LDs are at their lowest ebb. Labour has been losing votes to its left instead to the SNP and Greens and Corbyn could at least win back some of those
What if JC does win and the Conservatives choose their next leader from the Thatcherite tendency? Many have never been happy with the compromises of the Cameron years, e.g. on foreign aid or the minimum wage. Then we'd really be back to the early 1980s.
And it could be the one thing that could help a struggling LibDem party (or as they should rename themselves, the Alliance) to reverse some of their recent disasters.
And the Falkland Islanders had better watch out ...
Right wing press trying to get the contest abandoned as the wrong result is about to occur shocker.
From the POV of the right wing press, the right result is about to occur.
As a kipper and ex Tory this must be bitter sweet. This is the sort of thing you always wanted to happen to the Tory party.
It will help UKIP and the no campaign if Corbyn wins . If Corbyn gets of the fence, and states he wants to leave the EU. This would also help the SNP on getting another Independence Referendum.
The right and and left could then combine on leaving. Which at the moment seems to me the best position for England.
Not necessarily, Corbyn would be de facto leader of the No campaign, campaigning alongside Farage and Hannan. Cameron would be de facto leader of the Yes campaign, campaigning alongside Sturgeon, Farron and Blairites in Labour. It would be the 2 left and right wings for No with the centre in England, Wales and Scotland for Yes
Sturgeon would never campaign alongside Cameron. Also Sturgeon would hope the UK wide referendum would vote no, with a big scottish yes. This making the SNP argument for Independence even stronger.
I will be voting no to the EU and this is one of the reasons why. So England will at last gets its own parliament.
Well I doubt they will appear at the same rally but she will be leading the Yes campaign in Scotland, Cameron the Yes campaign in England and Wales so they would both be campaigning for the same side. Sturgeon may well hope Scotland votes heavily for Yes, with the rest of the UK a big No, but that is unlikely at present, more likely is a narrow Yes in the UK as a whole with a larger Yes in Scotland (though some polls have shown a fair degree of Out voters in the SNP ranks).
Even if Scotland leaves the UK Wales and NI would remain (and UKIP got a big vote in Wales) so UK exit does not automatically produce an English Parliament
As does the massive schism between Labour members/supporters on the one hand and Labour parliamentarians on the other.
Makes a change from all these years of hearing how the Tory parliamentarians are so different from their members/supporters I suppose, though whether that situation remains I could not say.
The 330 Conservative MPs seem (to me) to be fairly representative, in views and backgrounds, to Conservative voters and party members - a quite broad church of businessmen ("big" and "small"), landed gentry, suburbanites and country folk... Labour on the other hand seems to be dominated (at 'the top') by the London metropolitan sort - which probably explains to a degree why they advanced a bit in London at the GE and retreated elsewhere (except for taking some easy LD pickings).
Of the four leadership candidates, only Corbyn represents the non-London element of Labour (and conversely would put off its London element) whilst the other three candidates would likely continue the "Labour as the Metropolitan party" theme (which of course isn't too clever as the SNP just take all of Scotland, UKIP take a good chunk of the vote in the northern/poorer English cities, and the Tories the remainder of England & Wales).
The Tories are led by Cameron (educated at Eton and Oxford and ex SPAD) and Osborne educated at St Paul's and Oxford and ex SPAD). Burnham comes from the North, Kendall the Midlands, Cooper was born in Scotland and raised in the South. Much of Corbyn's support actually comes from London.
In 1997 and 2001 Tory MPs were largely privately educated and working in the City and representing rural seats, they did not represent the average voter, whereas now a small majority of Tory MPs are state educated and most represent suburban seats. In 1997 and 2001 by contrast more Labour MPs worked in the private sector and represented the suburbs, now they are mainly ex public sector workers representing urban seats. When they win parties representatives are more representative, when they don't they are not
The next Tory leader could well be drawn from the 2005-2015 intake. I have a feeling that it will be someone reasonably "unknown" (to the general public) OR May. Still can't see Osborne as PM. As for Boris - I can't see party members voting for him in that final ballot.
It's hard to see Corbyn not winning now. He said a lot of popularist stuff today about big corporations benefiting from taxpayer investment and avoiding tax. It will resonate. Clearly, he speaks a lot of nonsense, but superficially it makes sense and speaks to frustrations a lot of Labour-inclined voters feel. He'll lose Labour stacks of marginals but will win back disenchanted voters in a fair few northern seats. Takeaway immigration and what Corbyn is offering is Old Labour.
If he doesn't win, but places second, then there will be a rather large impetus to shift the party leftwards.
Once the leadership election is done, Labour outside Parliament becomes pretty powerless in terms of policy development. But Corbyn has certainly given MPs a lot to think about. If he does win, the disconnect between the Parliamentary party and the wider movement will be pernially problematic.
Given the rising panic in the Labour and left leaning MSM around Corbyn, the prospect of yet another bloody nose for the Westminster Bubble establishment is looking increasingly likely, I'm sure the right leaning MSM will join in as the reality that Corbyn may win sets in. The MSM's ability to influence events is starting to be really tested.
Should Corbyn win I'd envisage he'll focus his efforts on the 16 million DNVs and the few million not registered to vote, which was a rich seam of votes mined by the SNP.
What's Corbyn's other though? The SNP has Westminster and a very simple solution: independence.
So if Corbyn does win either he refuses to compromise or modulate his positions, not all of which he will be able to get adopted as party policy, and his days are therefore numbered. (...)
How does the Labour Party decide on its policy nowadays? I thought it was just whatever the Leader happened to thnk up.
Just like the Conservative Party, of course. But that is no excuse for Labour.
Given the rising panic in the Labour and left leaning MSM around Corbyn, the prospect of yet another bloody nose for the Westminster Bubble establishment is looking increasingly likely, I'm sure the right leaning MSM will join in as the reality that Corbyn may win sets in. The MSM's ability to influence events is starting to be really tested.
Should Corbyn win I'd envisage he'll focus his efforts on the 16 million DNVs and the few million not registered to vote, which was a rich seam of votes mined by the SNP.
What's Corbyn's other though? The SNP has Westminster and a very simple solution: independence.
Austerity
It's not really the same though, is it? There's not the same association with identity that nationalism has.
Impressive of Labour to find a leader that could be worse than Miliband.
I'm not sure Corbyn would be worse than Miliband. Miliband had everything in place to win, but he continually missed the open goal. Instead he would kick the ball towards random campaigns, without connecting them up in a move forwards.
Corbyn might well have a better set of coherent policies that can be wrapped up into simple messages. Even if they are utter lunacy in the view of many people.
That's where Miliband failed: he jumped on bandwagons and utterly failed to connect them into a narrative (apart from 'nasty Tories'). Corbyn might well do that much better; we can only hope the Great British Public don't like his message ...
It's hard to see Corbyn not winning now. He said a lot of popularist stuff today about big corporations benefiting from taxpayer investment and avoiding tax. It will resonate. Clearly, he speaks a lot of nonsense, but superficially it makes sense and speaks to frustrations a lot of Labour-inclined voters feel. He'll lose Labour stacks of marginals but will win back disenchanted voters in a fair few northern seats. Takeaway immigration and what Corbyn is offering is Old Labour.
If he doesn't win, but places second, then there will be a rather large impetus to shift the party leftwards.
Yes, but if he loses a more moderate candidate will have won and beaten the candidate of the left on preferences (the reverse of 2010 when Ed beat David) so the left would actually be in a weaker position than 2010 whereas if Corbyn won the left would be in a stronger position. Burnham and probably Cooper would offer Corbyn a position, but it would not be frontrank
That number is 350% of the Inland Revenue estimate.
And Corbyn believes he can collect most if it, and this is where his programme will be paid for from.
This is barking of almost David Icke quality imo.
The magic tax money tree is popular with the left, and as a chartered accountant, i can tell you its a mix of either complete fantasy, or having huge negative implications on the economy and jobs
To add one example.
£40bn of that £120bn is what Murphy, in his latest Tax Gap report for the PCS Union (which is controlled by the Socialist Party or another far left outfit), is Tax Evasion in the Shadow Economy.
The analysis seems to be: Guess size of shadow economy = 10%. Therefore we get the % of tax due. Therefore we have the amount of money which we can (abracadabra) collect.
That's a leaning tower of highly unlikely assumptions. Murphy thinks that taxing it all will not cause the economic activity in the shadow economy to shrink, for example.
Given the rising panic in the Labour and left leaning MSM around Corbyn, the prospect of yet another bloody nose for the Westminster Bubble establishment is looking increasingly likely, I'm sure the right leaning MSM will join in as the reality that Corbyn may win sets in. The MSM's ability to influence events is starting to be really tested.
Should Corbyn win I'd envisage he'll focus his efforts on the 16 million DNVs and the few million not registered to vote, which was a rich seam of votes mined by the SNP.
What's Corbyn's other though? The SNP has Westminster and a very simple solution: independence.
Austerity
It's not really the same though, is it? There's not the same association with identity that nationalism has.
There is in the public sector and the universities and unions and much of the Yes campaign was linked to an 'anti austerity' agenda by default, hence the 'Red Tory' tag for the likes of Murphy
Having seen Corbyn on Marr I'm convinced he'll win, he was excellent. Coherent and firm, he said exactly what labour voters wanted to hear.
Let's remember this isn't about who's going to be PM it's about who is going to lead the Labour Party, he is exactly what they need right now, I wish him well.
Well, for those us who would like an alternative to this government and who are actually quite worried about what they'll do next, Labour's implosion is utterly depressing.
Impressive of Labour to find a leader that could be worse than Miliband.
I'm not sure Corbyn would be worse than Miliband. Miliband had everything in place to win, but he continually missed the open goal. Instead he would kick the ball towards random campaigns, without connecting them up in a move forwards.
Corbyn might well have a better set of coherent policies that can be wrapped up into simple messages. Even if they are utter lunacy in the view of many people.
That's where Miliband failed: he jumped on bandwagons and utterly failed to connect them into a narrative (apart from 'nasty Tories'). Corbyn might well do that much better; we can only hope the Great British Public don't like his message ...
Yep, this is true. It's clear his message will focus on big corporates - subsidised by taxpayers, but avoiding tax themselves. He'll also make Labour far more EU-sceptic. The message will be unapologetic, popularist, superficially coherent and accessible. It will also be unhinged and will cement the Tories in power.
I wasn't around when the SDP split, but it seems there was some organised grouping within Labour before they all left the party. Is there any evidence that Blairites have, or could have, the same organisational force?
Believes in anti-austerity politics, gets into power then discovers that there is no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow?
'Anti Austerity' is just code for spend spend spend and destroy the middle classes. The reality is that in real terms – 2013-14 prices – spending will rise from £724bn this year to £746.5bn in 2020-21, an increase over and above inflation of 3%. Public sector current expenditure rises by more than 2.5% over the same period. (See David Smith in The Sunday Times) Admittedly this is not as eye wateringly massive as Browns torrent of spending between 2000 and 2010, (where spending increased by £250bn in real terms ) but it is not austerity.
As does the massive schism between Labour members/supporters on the one hand and Labour parliamentarians on the other.
Makes a change from all these years of hearing how the Tory parliamentarians are so different from their members/supporters I suppose, though whether that situation remains I could not say.
The 330 Conservative MPs seem (to me) to be fairly representative, in views and backgrounds, to Conservative voters and party members - a quite broad church of businessmen ("big" and "small"), landed gentry, suburbanites and country folk... Labour on the other hand seems to be dominated (at 'the top') by the London metropolitan sort - which probably explains to a degree why they advanced a bit in London at the GE and retreated elsewhere (except for taking some easy LD pickings).
Of the four leadership candidates, only Corbyn represents the non-London element of Labour (and conversely would put off its London element) whilst the other three candidates would likely continue the "Labour as the Metropolitan party" theme (which of course isn't too clever as the SNP just take all of Scotland, UKIP take a good chunk of the vote in the northern/poorer English cities, and the Tories the remainder of England & Wales).
The Tories are led by Cameron (educated at Eton and Oxford and ex SPAD) and Osborne educated at St Paul's and Oxford and ex SPAD). Burnham comes from the North, Kendall the Midlands, Cooper was born in Scotland and raised in the South. Much of Corbyn's support actually comes from London.
In 1997 and 2001 Tory MPs were largely privately educated and working in the City and representing rural seats, they did not represent the average voter, whereas now a small majority of Tory MPs are state educated and most represent suburban seats. In 1997 and 2001 by contrast more Labour MPs worked in the private sector and represented the suburbs, now they are mainly ex public sector workers representing urban seats. When they win parties representatives are more representative, when they don't they are not
The next Tory leader could well be drawn from the 2005-2015 intake. I have a feeling that it will be someone reasonably "unknown" (to the general public) OR May. Still can't see Osborne as PM. As for Boris - I can't see party members voting for him in that final ballot.
In power the Tories always elect the Chancellor (Macmillan, Major etc) or the Foreign Secretary (Eden, Home etc). On that basis therefore the next Tory leader will be either Osborne or Hammond
Worry not. Mr Observer, Corbyn will never be Labour leader.
Even if by some fluke, he became PM, he could always blame the financial collapse on Farmer Jones.
But it won't happen. The forces of self-preservation will win out. But who'd have thought that this leadership election, fast drifting into boring navel-gazing, could become so interesting.
Impressive of Labour to find a leader that could be worse than Miliband.
I'm not sure Corbyn would be worse than Miliband. Miliband had everything in place to win, but he continually missed the open goal. Instead he would kick the ball towards random campaigns, without connecting them up in a move forwards.
Corbyn might well have a better set of coherent policies that can be wrapped up into simple messages. Even if they are utter lunacy in the view of many people.
That's where Miliband failed: he jumped on bandwagons and utterly failed to connect them into a narrative (apart from 'nasty Tories'). Corbyn might well do that much better; we can only hope the Great British Public don't like his message ...
Corbyn's message may be nuts, but he will be able to sell it far better than Miliband could and be far more aggressive in opposing the government with an undiluted socialist platform.
Is the SNP pitch really that Nicola would campaign on the same side as Cameron on EUref but refuse to appear with him?
"We want to be an active member of Europe, engaging and negotiating with our colleagues from across the continent, in positive dialogue to achieve common goals and further mutual aims.
To some in politics today, the Limehouse Declaration, as it became known, remains a vivid and traumatic event that has shaped their lives. To many others, though, it is only distant history with no enduring relevance, which is why any discussion of it already requires the brief background given above. There are, though, two enduring questions about the SDP. The first is historical: did the SDP eventually make Labour's win in 1997 possible, or did it delay it? The answer is a mixture of both, but is surely closer to the former than the latter. The SDP came into existence because Labour was in multiple crisis and had lurched to the left under a weak leader. The combined challenge from the Alliance and the Tories failed to shake Labour from its leftward course until the near-death experience of the 1983 election. It was this, not the SDP, that brought about the election of Neil Kinnock. In the end, the threat of extinction forced Labour to reform; but that threat would not have been as unanswerable without the SDP.
I wasn't around when the SDP split, but it seems there was some organised grouping within Labour before they all left the party. Is there any evidence that Blairites have, or could have, the same organisational force?
@JamesTapsfield: Burnham says he's well placed to unify Labour cos he did not vote the way he wanted to on welfare. This may be why Corbyn is doing well
I wasn't around when the SDP split, but it seems there was some organised grouping within Labour before they all left the party. Is there any evidence that Blairites have, or could have, the same organisational force?
Is the SNP pitch really that Nicola would campaign on the same side as Cameron on EUref but refuse to appear with him?
"We want to be an active member of Europe, engaging and negotiating with our colleagues from across the continent, in positive dialogue to achieve common goals and further mutual aims.
Apart from that English Bastard Cameron"
Yes she will never appear with him. Why would she ? He will be history either way after the referendum.
The swing leftwards has had some interesting purging intentions.
Mandelson spoke out after Paul Kenny, the GMB general secretary, announced that his union was drawing up a motion to ban Progress from the party. A strategy document drawn up by the Unite union last year said that Progress, which is funded by Lord Sainsbury, promoted old thinking and neo-liberalism.
I wasn't around when the SDP split, but it seems there was some organised grouping within Labour before they all left the party. Is there any evidence that Blairites have, or could have, the same organisational force?
I wasn't around when the SDP split, but it seems there was some organised grouping within Labour before they all left the party. Is there any evidence that Blairites have, or could have, the same organisational force?
Blarirites would likely cross the floor to join Cameron rather than Farron's LDs, though that could also lead some rightwing Tories to UKIP
Well, for those us who would like an alternative to this government and who are actually quite worried about what they'll do next, Labour's implosion is utterly depressing.
2020: Spoiling the ballot paper....
Corbyn represents the greatest alternative to the government there could possibly be, he may be unelectable, but you cannot say he does not offer an alternative
I wasn't around when the SDP split, but it seems there was some organised grouping within Labour before they all left the party. Is there any evidence that Blairites have, or could have, the same organisational force?
I wasn't around when the SDP split, but it seems there was some organised grouping within Labour before they all left the party. Is there any evidence that Blairites have, or could have, the same organisational force?
Blarirites would likely cross the floor to join Cameron rather than Farron's LDs, though that could also lead some rightwing Tories to UKIP
In the history of the Labour Party only a handful of Labour MPs have ever defeceted to the Tories... I think their status as major rivals makes it particularly difficult.
Worry not. Mr Observer, Corbyn will never be Labour leader.
Even if by some fluke, he became PM, he could always blame the financial collapse on Farmer Jones.
But it won't happen. The forces of self-preservation will win out. But who'd have thought that this leadership election, fast drifting into boring navel-gazing, could become so interesting.
It's clear Labour needs to go through all this, so better now than later. Either it will emerge stronger at some stage, or it will destroy itself and something else will emerge on the centre left to take its place. The shame is that all the while the Tories will be in power, making decisions and implementing policies that I believe are not in the best interests of the UK (indeed, they will probably lead to the break-up of the UK). But what can you do? Things have to run their course.
@davidbarrett: BREAKING: Lord Sewel resigns as chairman of committees in the House of Lords, meaning he's no longer Deputy Speaker, says Lords spokesman
I wasn't around when the SDP split, but it seems there was some organised grouping within Labour before they all left the party. Is there any evidence that Blairites have, or could have, the same organisational force?
Blarirites would likely cross the floor to join Cameron rather than Farron's LDs, though that could also lead some rightwing Tories to UKIP
Worry not. Mr Observer, Corbyn will never be Labour leader.
Even if by some fluke, he became PM, he could always blame the financial collapse on Farmer Jones.
But it won't happen. The forces of self-preservation will win out. But who'd have thought that this leadership election, fast drifting into boring navel-gazing, could become so interesting.
It's clear Labour needs to go through all this, so better now than later. Either it will emerge stronger at some stage, or it will destroy itself and something else will emerge on the centre left to take its place. The shame is that all the while the Tories will be in power, making decisions and implementing policies that I believe are not in the best interests of the UK (indeed, they will probably lead to the break-up of the UK). But what can you do? Things have to run their course.
No is still ahead in rerun indyref polls even after the Tory majority
@davidbarrett: BREAKING: Lord Sewel resigns as chairman of committees in the House of Lords, meaning he's no longer Deputy Speaker, says Lords spokesman
When he took up the post, he resigned the Labour whip. WIll he take it back?
I wasn't around when the SDP split, but it seems there was some organised grouping within Labour before they all left the party. Is there any evidence that Blairites have, or could have, the same organisational force?
Blarirites would likely cross the floor to join Cameron rather than Farron's LDs, though that could also lead some rightwing Tories to UKIP
In the history of the Labour Party only a handful of Labour MPs have ever defeceted to the Tories... I think their status as major rivals makes it particularly difficult.
Well there are only a handful of Blairite true believers left in the Labour Party now as Kendall's support shows
Well, for those us who would like an alternative to this government and who are actually quite worried about what they'll do next, Labour's implosion is utterly depressing.
2020: Spoiling the ballot paper....
Corbyn represents the greatest alternative to the government there could possibly be, he may be unelectable, but you cannot say he does not offer an alternative
Yes the destruction of the Labour Party is good for the conservatives, and with no real opposition in parliamentary terms, it might become more violent in the country.
When Blair had an 179 majority his opposition was the mains-stream media. There is no real MSM opposition against this government.
I'm sure the higher turnout in Scotland wasn't caused by the extra enthusiasm of the Scottish Lab, LD and Con voters!
Suppose it was all caused by the enthusiasm for the SNP and that this extra enthusiam abates by 2020 so that turnout in Scotland is the same as the UK as a whole. Arithmetically this would mean that the SNP vote would reduce by 14% from 50% of the total to 43%.
Yet because the SNP have such large majorities almost everywhere, they would only lose two seats - one to the Tories (Berwichshire Roxburgh), one to LibDems (East Dunbartonshire) and none to Labour.
Having seen Corbyn on Marr I just watched Burnham interviewed on Sky, insipid, non comittal and bland.
When is the leader announced please? I'm not an ante post punter but might tie up a few quid on Corbyn, I'm convinced he's the winner.
Corbyn will win on first preferences I have no doubt, I would not rule out Burnham scraping home on preferences. Yougov had Corbyn's lead over Burnham at 17% on first preferences, just 6% on final preferences with 20% undecided.
Burnham said he would renationalise the railways, he would not go as far as Corbyn in nationalising other utilities. He said he would keep the 50% top tax rate for now, but would not go as far as Corbyn in imposing a top tax rate of over 70% on those earning more than a million a year
The Blairites wouldn't need to leave the Labour Party. They would just form an independent group within Parliament, but formally within Labour. What could Corbyn do about it? He would have no authority to impose any party discipline whatsoever considering his past record, and i think there have even been suggestions that he even opposes whipping. To the extent that he wants to be leader, i don't think it is for any other reason than to give a prominent official platform for his views that he (and the Campaign group) have largely been denied for 25 years. They have had platforms but they have all been through "unofficial" non-Parliamentary movements where they have largely been speaking to the converted.
On the article, how can anyone be surprised by this? The membership system was a God-given gift to the Hard Left to vote in a candidate whom they would never have got elected in a million years. Once Corbyn was on the ballot, he had a strong chance of winning.
Ps for all those saying Corbyn may recapture votes in the North, forget it: the main issue now for the Northern Old Labour voter is immigration and the fear Labour will pander to the Islamic lobby. Corbyn as leader will only exacerbate that.
Having seen Corbyn on Marr I just watched Burnham interviewed on Sky, insipid, non comittal and bland.
When is the leader announced please? I'm not an ante post punter but might tie up a few quid on Corbyn, I'm convinced he's the winner.
Corbyn will win on first preferences I have no doubt, I would not rule out Burnham scraping home on preferences. Yougov had Corbyn's lead over Burnham at 16% on first preferences, just 6% on final preferences with 20% undecided.
Burnham said he would renationalise the railways, he would not go as far as Corbyn in nationalising other utilities. He said he would keep the 50% top tax rate for now, but would not go as far as Corbyn in imposing a top tax rate of over 70% on those earning more than a million a year
Corbyn has caught up with Cooper on Betfair (both 3/1 against).
@davidbarrett: BREAKING: Lord Sewel resigns as chairman of committees in the House of Lords, meaning he's no longer Deputy Speaker, says Lords spokesman
Well, for those us who would like an alternative to this government and who are actually quite worried about what they'll do next, Labour's implosion is utterly depressing.
2020: Spoiling the ballot paper....
Corbyn represents the greatest alternative to the government there could possibly be, he may be unelectable, but you cannot say he does not offer an alternative
When I say 'alternative' I mean one which actually has a good chance of being in power, or at least being credible!
Having seen Corbyn on Marr I just watched Burnham interviewed on Sky, insipid, non comittal and bland.
When is the leader announced please? I'm not an ante post punter but might tie up a few quid on Corbyn, I'm convinced he's the winner.
The best price is 3 to 1 at the moment with the bookies. Get £500 on while it is still there. Then go on holiday with your winnings,and to lie down in a darkened room, whilst listening to Hare Krishna.
@ScottyNational: #Marr : The definitely not leader of the SNP in Westminster, Alex Salmond, confirms 2nd ref. 3rd or 4th will finally settle it. Or maybe 5th
A former detective has sensationally claimed Scotland Yard covered up a man's confession he pushed 18 people to their deaths on the London Underground.
Geoff Platt says convicted killer Kiernan Kelly told police he murdered 18 people but it was covered up due to fears it would cause chaos among the public.
Kelly, a dangerous vagabond known for ill-tempered and drunken acts of violence, claimed to have pushed most of his victims onto train tracks on the Northern Line in the 1970s.
Having seen Corbyn on Marr I just watched Burnham interviewed on Sky, insipid, non comittal and bland.
When is the leader announced please? I'm not an ante post punter but might tie up a few quid on Corbyn, I'm convinced he's the winner.
Corbyn will win on first preferences I have no doubt, I would not rule out Burnham scraping home on preferences. Yougov had Corbyn's lead over Burnham at 16% on first preferences, just 6% on final preferences with 20% undecided.
Burnham said he would renationalise the railways, he would not go as far as Corbyn in nationalising other utilities. He said he would keep the 50% top tax rate for now, but would not go as far as Corbyn in imposing a top tax rate of over 70% on those earning more than a million a year
Burnham didn't go as far as saying he would renationalise the railways, he mumbled about some sort of public ownership when franchises were up for renewal.
Well, for those us who would like an alternative to this government and who are actually quite worried about what they'll do next, Labour's implosion is utterly depressing.
2020: Spoiling the ballot paper....
Corbyn represents the greatest alternative to the government there could possibly be, he may be unelectable, but you cannot say he does not offer an alternative
When I say 'alternative' I mean one which actually has a good chance of being in power, or at least being credible!
Well on that basis today's poll suggests the best leader for Labour would be David Miliband, yawn!
Having seen Corbyn on Marr I just watched Burnham interviewed on Sky, insipid, non comittal and bland.
When is the leader announced please? I'm not an ante post punter but might tie up a few quid on Corbyn, I'm convinced he's the winner.
The best price is 3 to 1 at the moment with the bookies. Get £500 on while it is still there. Then go on holiday with your winnings,and to lie down in a darkened room, whilst listening to Hare Krishna.
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder if D. Miliband is now wondering if he's cocked up again. If he'd followed Purnell, Brown would almost certainly have gone, and Miliband (D) could've won. He failed against his younger brother partly due to his arrogance. And now he's not even in the race when it seems he'd have a strong chance of winning.
John Bercow has been criticised after billing taxpayers for more than £1,000 worth of alcohol – including hundreds of pounds on his own-branded whisky for guests.
MPs are not allowed to claim expenses for alcohol, but when claiming in his capacity as Speaker Mr Bercow is exempt from the ban.
John Bercow has been criticised after billing taxpayers for more than £1,000 worth of alcohol – including hundreds of pounds on his own-branded whisky for guests.
MPs are not allowed to claim expenses for alcohol, but when claiming in his capacity as Speaker Mr Bercow is exempt from the ban.
Having seen Corbyn on Marr I just watched Burnham interviewed on Sky, insipid, non comittal and bland.
When is the leader announced please? I'm not an ante post punter but might tie up a few quid on Corbyn, I'm convinced he's the winner.
Corbyn will win on first preferences I have no doubt, I would not rule out Burnham scraping home on preferences. Yougov had Corbyn's lead over Burnham at 17% on first preferences, just 6% on final preferences with 20% undecided.
Burnham said he would renationalise the railways, he would not go as far as Corbyn in nationalising other utilities. He said he would keep the 50% top tax rate for now, but would not go as far as Corbyn in imposing a top tax rate of over 70% on those earning more than a million a year
Corbyn has caught up with Cooper on Betfair (both 3/1 against).
This demonization of Corbyn by right-wingers can only mean one thing - they are worried by him.
I think they would only be worried (electorally) by him if they thought that he would manage to take a united party behind him. Nobody can ever totally dismiss the chances of a populist backed by a large organised movement. But he hasn't got one. In fact i reckon many moderate Conservatives are probably quite looking forward to the prospect because it would strongly strengthen them electorally against siren calls from the right. Who needs the right when all the more centrist votes are abandoned by their opponents? The Conservative leadership would feel no need to compete with Corbyn, and they would have no demand from their membership to do so. The EU referendum could be entertaining though.
John Bercow has been criticised after billing taxpayers for more than £1,000 worth of alcohol – including hundreds of pounds on his own-branded whisky for guests.
MPs are not allowed to claim expenses for alcohol, but when claiming in his capacity as Speaker Mr Bercow is exempt from the ban.
You can buy rebadged whsiky - many distilleries do it. Back in 2003 I was lucky enough to have a couple of glasses of 617 Squadron whisky - commemorating sixty years since the unit's formation.
You can buy rebadged whsiky - many distilleries do it. Back in 2003 I was lucky enough to have a couple of glasses of 617 Squadron whisky - commemorating sixty years since the unit's formation.
the special Speaker Bercow’s ten-year-old single malt whisky, produced by Gordon and MacPhail distillers, at £29 a bottle.
Well, for those us who would like an alternative to this government and who are actually quite worried about what they'll do next, Labour's implosion is utterly depressing.
2020: Spoiling the ballot paper....
Corbyn represents the greatest alternative to the government there could possibly be, he may be unelectable, but you cannot say he does not offer an alternative
Yes the destruction of the Labour Party is good for the conservatives, and with no real opposition in parliamentary terms, it might become more violent in the country.
When Blair had an 179 majority his opposition was the mains-stream media. There is no real MSM opposition against this government.
The Mirror, the Guardian, frequently the BBC are anti Cameron and Osborne. Danny Finkelstein actually had an article last week that a Corbyn leadership could be bad for the government in that, while they would likely win in the end, it would revive the confrontations of the 80s with the unions, local government, universities and public sector all aggressively anti government at every turn
John Bercow has been criticised after billing taxpayers for more than £1,000 worth of alcohol – including hundreds of pounds on his own-branded whisky for guests.
MPs are not allowed to claim expenses for alcohol, but when claiming in his capacity as Speaker Mr Bercow is exempt from the ban.
You can buy rebadged whsiky - many distilleries do it. Back in 2003 I was lucky enough to have a couple of glasses of 617 Squadron whisky - commemorating sixty years since the unit's formation.
It's obviously in ST's interest to big up a Labour disaster, but even so what a pickle they have got themselves into. Breath-taking.
As many of us on here have pointed out the party opening up the vote to anyone willing to throw in £3 this summer has been a massive own goal. I suppose the SPADs in Ed's bunker thought this was a jolly old idea and would allow ordinary, middle-of-the-road voters to reconnect with the party. Instead it sounds like all the militants who Kinnock and Blair spend a decade squeezing out are back in town joined by left-wing greens (although why green activists want Corbyn as leader is beyond me as he would presumably take their unique policy territory on the left e.g. renationalise the railways).
Isn't it about time we just closed down all these schools and local authorities with problems like this? All the guilty parties just seem to get back into jobs elsewhere or even the same place.
Well, for those us who would like an alternative to this government and who are actually quite worried about what they'll do next, Labour's implosion is utterly depressing.
2020: Spoiling the ballot paper....
Corbyn represents the greatest alternative to the government there could possibly be, he may be unelectable, but you cannot say he does not offer an alternative
When I say 'alternative' I mean one which actually has a good chance of being in power, or at least being credible!
Well on that basis today's poll suggests the best leader for Labour would be David Miliband, yawn!
A Corbyn win is potentially a major opening for David M. He can come back in the middle of this parliament, swept in on wave of desperation for someone to save the party from militant left.
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder if D. Miliband is now wondering if he's cocked up again. If he'd followed Purnell, Brown would almost certainly have gone, and Miliband (D) could've won. He failed against his younger brother partly due to his arrogance. And now he's not even in the race when it seems he'd have a strong chance of winning.
To be fair to David M, he is now living in New York City heading a charity doing important rescue work overseas and living a good life, why would he want to rush back and lead Labour in its present state and with no guarantee of winning the leadership either. With Umunna having too many skeletons it seems, and Dan Jarvis too committed to his family to run for now, David M can afford to wait it out as the 'Prince across the Water' and if the next leader falls flat on his face come back in about 2018 post EU ref, or after a Labour defeat in 2020, win a by-election or a safe Labour seat and obtain the leadership by acclaim
Worry not. Mr Observer, Corbyn will never be Labour leader.
Even if by some fluke, he became PM, he could always blame the financial collapse on Farmer Jones.
But it won't happen. The forces of self-preservation will win out. But who'd have thought that this leadership election, fast drifting into boring navel-gazing, could become so interesting.
It's clear Labour needs to go through all this, so better now than later. Either it will emerge stronger at some stage, or it will destroy itself and something else will emerge on the centre left to take its place. The shame is that all the while the Tories will be in power, making decisions and implementing policies that I believe are not in the best interests of the UK (indeed, they will probably lead to the break-up of the UK). But what can you do? Things have to run their course.
Southam as a Lib Dem you should be rejoicing as this might be a route back. However, I do not think you will be alive to see PR and a centre left government again in England again.
Comments
Also Sturgeon would hope the UK wide referendum would vote no, with a big scottish yes.
This making the SNP argument for Independence even stronger.
I will be voting no to the EU and this is one of the reasons why.
So England will at last gets its own parliament.
Impressive of Labour to find a leader that could be worse than Miliband.
And it could be the one thing that could help a struggling LibDem party (or as they should rename themselves, the Alliance) to reverse some of their recent disasters.
And the Falkland Islanders had better watch out ...
Even if Scotland leaves the UK Wales and NI would remain (and UKIP got a big vote in Wales) so UK exit does not automatically produce an English Parliament
Just like the Conservative Party, of course. But that is no excuse for Labour.
However I bet you said the same about Ken Livingstone in 2000 for London Mayor.
Corbyn might well have a better set of coherent policies that can be wrapped up into simple messages. Even if they are utter lunacy in the view of many people.
That's where Miliband failed: he jumped on bandwagons and utterly failed to connect them into a narrative (apart from 'nasty Tories'). Corbyn might well do that much better; we can only hope the Great British Public don't like his message ...
£40bn of that £120bn is what Murphy, in his latest Tax Gap report for the PCS Union (which is controlled by the Socialist Party or another far left outfit), is Tax Evasion in the Shadow Economy.
The analysis seems to be: Guess size of shadow economy = 10%. Therefore we get the % of tax due. Therefore we have the amount of money which we can (abracadabra) collect.
That's a leaning tower of highly unlikely assumptions. Murphy thinks that taxing it all will not cause the economic activity in the shadow economy to shrink, for example.
As I say ... mad as a box of frogs.
Let's remember this isn't about who's going to be PM it's about who is going to lead the Labour Party, he is exactly what they need right now, I wish him well.
2020: Spoiling the ballot paper....
The reality is that in real terms – 2013-14 prices – spending will rise from £724bn this year to £746.5bn in 2020-21, an increase over and above inflation of 3%. Public sector current expenditure rises by more than 2.5% over the same period.
(See David Smith in The Sunday Times)
Admittedly this is not as eye wateringly massive as Browns torrent of spending between 2000 and 2010, (where spending increased by £250bn in real terms ) but it is not austerity.
Worry not. Mr Observer, Corbyn will never be Labour leader.
Even if by some fluke, he became PM, he could always blame the financial collapse on Farmer Jones.
But it won't happen. The forces of self-preservation will win out. But who'd have thought that this leadership election, fast drifting into boring navel-gazing, could become so interesting.
http://show.nojam.com/a2sP/search.php
Do please let me know how it works for you, and if it's useful.
You can add relevant videos - create a free Nojam account to do this, and add the entries directly to the Showcase.
"We want to be an active member of Europe, engaging and negotiating with our colleagues from across the continent, in positive dialogue to achieve common goals and further mutual aims.
Apart from that English Bastard Cameron"
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/
Why would she ?
He will be history either way after the referendum.
The swing leftwards has had some interesting purging intentions.
Turnout in Wales 65.6%
Turnout in Scotland 71.1%
Turnout in NI 58.1%
UK as a whole 66.1%
It seems unfair. I know the sack isn't big enough for them all, but why do they pick on the red ferret and the blue ferret?
That red ferret looks a bit rabid too.
When is the leader announced please? I'm not an ante post punter but might tie up a few quid on Corbyn, I'm convinced he's the winner.
Just wait for the expense claim...
Mr. Jessop, that's a realistic outcome, as is Corbyn being worse than Miliband.
@davidbarrett: BREAKING: Lord Sewel resigns as chairman of committees in the House of Lords, meaning he's no longer Deputy Speaker, says Lords spokesman
When Blair had an 179 majority his opposition was the mains-stream media.
There is no real MSM opposition against this government.
Suppose it was all caused by the enthusiasm for the SNP and that this extra enthusiam abates by 2020 so that turnout in Scotland is the same as the UK as a whole. Arithmetically this would mean that the SNP vote would reduce by 14% from 50% of the total to 43%.
Yet because the SNP have such large majorities almost everywhere, they would only lose two seats - one to the Tories (Berwichshire Roxburgh), one to LibDems (East Dunbartonshire) and none to Labour.
Burnham said he would renationalise the railways, he would not go as far as Corbyn in nationalising other utilities. He said he would keep the 50% top tax rate for now, but would not go as far as Corbyn in imposing a top tax rate of over 70% on those earning more than a million a year
Ps for all those saying Corbyn may recapture votes in the North, forget it: the main issue now for the Northern Old Labour voter is immigration and the fear Labour will pander to the Islamic lobby. Corbyn as leader will only exacerbate that.
Get £500 on while it is still there.
Then go on holiday with your winnings,and to lie down in a darkened room, whilst listening to
Hare Krishna.
@BBCScotlandNews: Second #indyref is "inevitable" Alex Salmond tells BBC http://t.co/YUUoBEVw0J http://t.co/34SFz199pM
September 10th
Labour members want to hear what Corbyn says.
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder if D. Miliband is now wondering if he's cocked up again. If he'd followed Purnell, Brown would almost certainly have gone, and Miliband (D) could've won. He failed against his younger brother partly due to his arrogance. And now he's not even in the race when it seems he'd have a strong chance of winning.
10th September last day for voting. 12th September result is announced.
You can buy rebadged whsiky - many distilleries do it. Back in 2003 I was lucky enough to have a couple of glasses of 617 Squadron whisky - commemorating sixty years since the unit's formation.
What an ego. You can buy rebadged whsiky - many distilleries do it. Back in 2003 I was lucky enough to have a couple of glasses of 617 Squadron whisky - commemorating sixty years since the unit's formation.
Remember folks: you still have until 12 August to pay your £3 and vote Corbyn!
It's obviously in ST's interest to big up a Labour disaster, but even so what a pickle they have got themselves into. Breath-taking.
As many of us on here have pointed out the party opening up the vote to anyone willing to throw in £3 this summer has been a massive own goal. I suppose the SPADs in Ed's bunker thought this was a jolly old idea and would allow ordinary, middle-of-the-road voters to reconnect with the party. Instead it sounds like all the militants who Kinnock and Blair spend a decade squeezing out are back in town joined by left-wing greens (although why green activists want Corbyn as leader is beyond me as he would presumably take their unique policy territory on the left e.g. renationalise the railways).
How on earth is that policy even allowed? Is it not illegal under discrimination legislation?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/11763319/Banned-staff-revealed-to-be-teaching-at-Trojan-horse-school.html
Isn't it about time we just closed down all these schools and local authorities with problems like this? All the guilty parties just seem to get back into jobs elsewhere or even the same place.
However, I do not think you will be alive to see PR and a centre left government again in England again.
You would have to move to Scotland .