If JC does get elected, surely one of the future bets worth looking at has to be UKIP seats in 2020: granted a lot can happen and we have the referendum but, for many Northern Labour WWC constituencies, a JC-led party would be the last straw.
They'll be the last to go. Labour will lose all its marginal though, wherever in the country they are.
Any thoughts on which Labour MPs might defect to UKIP if he gets elected? Everyone will mention Danczuk but I think Woodcock in Barrow would be a good bet.
On a SDP Mark 2, why wouldn't splitters from Labour just join a Farron-led LD party?
I'd be surprised if any did, to be honest. Especially after the trouble Carswell has had with Farage. A Corbyn-led Labour party is likely to be a lot less wide-eyed about the EU. I doubt there'd be strict instructions on having to campaign to stay in - especially if one of Cameron's opt-outs relates to reductions in British workers' rights.
I don't think this has been mentioned before but in opposition the Leader and Deputy Leader face annual elections. Throughout his term Ed was returned unopposed but that need not be the case and Corbyn would surely likely be challenged if the party's ratings plunged.
However, the system would be the same as that which elected him in the first place.
Is it time for the Mirror to stick a crappy mock up of a parchment on their front page with Burnham, Cooper and Kendall promising any old bollox as long as members vote for them?
Or promise a nirvanaesque land of social justice and Tennents lager running through the taps paid for by $110 a barrel oil ? Seems to work on plenty suckers.
I repeat that the assumption that a Corbyn leadership makes Labour totally repellant to centre voters is based on nothing but the fact that the pundits in the press continually repeat it. And they are often wrong. Speaking as someone who regards himself as in the centre and who generally votes Labour but has voted Lib Dem and Conservative in the last 10 years, I would prefer a more centrist leader but a left wing one is simply not a deal breaker. I may well change my mind if he were to get in and were to do some things I don't like. But in the meantime I'm as willing to give him a chance as anyone else.
Not likely, but not completely out of the question, if we run into a recession, and the government is deemed to have responded poorly.
See 1983 and 1992. During recessions, in the first instance voters usually turn to the centre-right as the traditional home of economic competence, particularly when the alternative is out of the far left. Only in despair, as in Greece, will the voters look outside the mainstream.
Labour has lost the economic argument of borrowing vs austerity. I don't think Corbyn would have either the time or opportunity to reverse that even if a recession landed next year.
The Tories would have lost power in 1992 had they not already got rid of Thatcher . In the perception of the electorate a change of government had occurred but 16 months earlier. As it was, I suspect that had Kinnock not lost control of himself at Sheffield, Major would not have managed an overall majority.
Comments
However, the system would be the same as that which elected him in the first place.
See page 20 of
https://rotherhampolitics.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/rule-book-2014-collins-review.pdf