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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump now topping a poll in race for the Republican nomination

With all the focus on Labour’s trials and tribulations as it goes through its leadership election we have not really focused on the coming fight for the White House in 2016 which almost certainly will be the biggest political painting event of next year.

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JohnLoony

OMG Hahaha! But anyway, what normally happens is that A is the front-runner, is subject to intense scrutiny, is seen to be flawed or useless, and then is replaced by B within a few weeks. B is then replaced by C. Continue until about February of election year, when the proper candidate emerges.

Charles

JohnLoony said:

what normally happens is that A is the front-runner, is subject to intense scrutiny, is seen to be flawed or useless, and then is replaced by B within a few weeks.

You may have been the front runner for 6 minutes, but you have now been replaced by candidate B.

JohnLoony

I remember when it was 4 years ago (or even 8 (?) I can't even remember) when Whatsisname (I can't remember his name, and I can't be bothered to google to check) was the front-runner for the Republican Party. Then he was accused of sexual harassment. Then his accusers were shown to be mad fantasists who had made it up. Then he got muddled and forgetful about his own policies. It was the latter stuff about policies, not the sex scandal, which destroyed his credibility as a potential presidential candidate.

JohnLoony

I googled him anyway out of curiosity - Herman Cain. But anyway. They should select Roberta McCain, not Jeb Bush.

HorstMohammed

Nah, he's going nowhere. Apart from all the personality issues, Trump's main problem is that he has no discernible ideology or even just a set of somewhat coherent policy ideas. Major contenders, especially among Republicans, will be rigorously vetted for deviations from the current mainstream. Lots of other candidates will be eager to score easy points off him in debates, and he's got a rare talent for shooting himself in the foot, too. Just wait until they ask him to clarify his position on abortion or some other high-profile issue he's waffled on, and that'll be it.
I'm more puzzled by the high confidence in Jeb's chances, though. Betfair has been giving him around a 40% chance to win the nomination, which I think is extremely high in a 16-candidate-field featuring at least two other very plausible nominees. Personally, I think Walker is underrated: he has a very clear base appeal, access to a donor network that could almost rival Bush, and he's actually got about the best electability argument which you can make, winning thrice while running as a conservative hardliner in a blue state. I like the "Walker for president" bet even more, where you can often pick him up at odds of 20-1 or more against. That would imply that, conditional on winning the nomination, he'd have a less than 1 in 3 chance of becoming president (by way of comparison, Bush is given a 50-50 chance if he's the nominee). In an era of high partisan polarization, I don't think the identity of the nominee is going to matter that much to justify this difference, and besides, Walker's past record does not suggest that he'd be a vote loser.

Charles

HorstMohammed said:

Nah, he's going nowhere.

I tend to agree with you.

However, I shall have to consult the Oracle, my GOP-voting Californian mother in law, who successfully supported every single candidate-du-jour in the right order last time before grudgingly casting her vote for Romney.

I think she quite likes Walker (but that was from a couple of years back during the Wisco recall), but haven't heard her mention Trump...

MTimT

Mike. Very silly question. Read Nate Cohn in the NYT.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/21/upshot/the-trump-campaigns-turning-point.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

MTimT

JohnLoony said:

OMG Hahaha! But anyway, what normally happens is that A is the front-runner, is subject to intense scrutiny, is seen to be flawed or useless, and then is replaced by B within a few weeks. B is then replaced by C. Continue until about February of election year, when the proper candidate emerges.

Ha, Mr Loony, a very succinct and accurate description of the process. It will be between Bush, Walker and Rubio with Kasich as the real outsider prospect.

MTimT

PS First serious rumblings yesterday this side of the pond that Joe Biden is seriously throwing his hat in the race. Hillary may well be the prohibitive front runner at the present, but there are a lot of Dems worried about her candidacy. O'Malley and Sanders are not viable alternatives, Warren has shown no sign of agreeing to be drafted, so Biden might well be the party's insurance against a Hillary implosion.

peter_from_putney

I look forward to the day when we hear the authoritative words from Jack W:

"Hillary Clinton will never be POTUS."

Charles

peter_from_putney said:

I look forward to the day when we hear the authoritative words from Jack W:

"Hillary Clinton will never be POTUS."

Does anyone talk to him offline? I trust he's ok.

JohnLoony

DTWNBPOTUS

DecrepitJohnL

JohnLoony said:

OMG Hahaha! But anyway, what normally happens is that A is the front-runner, is subject to intense scrutiny, is seen to be flawed or useless, and then is replaced by B within a few weeks. B is then replaced by C. Continue until about February of election year, when the proper candidate emerges.

Yes, it is a "lay the leader" event. By the time of the nomination you hope to have half a dozen names in the book and only have to pay out on the last one.

DecrepitJohnL

MTimT said:

PS First serious rumblings yesterday this side of the pond that Joe Biden is seriously throwing his hat in the race. Hillary may well be the prohibitive front runner at the present, but there are a lot of Dems worried about her candidacy. O'Malley and Sanders are not viable alternatives, Warren has shown no sign of agreeing to be drafted, so Biden might well be the party's insurance against a Hillary implosion.

Biden is 72 so older even than Reagan when he became president, though not when he left office.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic:

I missed this, but it seems as though I might need to spend £3 and vote for Corbyn:

This is a man proud of his apple and blackcurrant jam, made from fruit grown on his allotment, a 66-year-old who likes trains – who really likes trains. “At meetings with train operators,” said his friend Emily Thornberry, Labour MP for Islington South, “Jeremy and other train hacks will start getting very over-excited, talking about bogies and God knows what.

“I don’t think he’s a trainspotter. He just knows more about trains than anyone ought to know.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/in-search-of-the-real-jeremy-corbyn--the-man-threatening-to-wrench-labour-to-the-left-10397997.html

SouthamObserver

Putting to one side the total rickets Labour made over the Welfare Bill last night, the 48 MPs who voted against - including a few who did so for London-centric reasons - show just how small a reliable base Corbyn would have in the Parliamentary party were he to become leader.

And looking at the Broxtowe CLP nomination votes as reported on the previous thread by Andrea:
Corbyn 43 votes
Burnham 15
Cooper 6
Kendall 2

I make that a total of 66 votes. I am not sure how many members the Broxtowe CLP has, but my guess is that it is significantly more than that. In other words, it may not be wise to read too much into the CLP nominations as an indicator for the final leadership results.

As it happens, I think Labour should have voted against last night. What they ended up doing was less a gift to Osborne than the SNP.

peter_from_putney

Charles said:

peter_from_putney said:

I look forward to the day when we hear the authoritative words from Jack W:

"Hillary Clinton will never be POTUS."

Does anyone talk to him offline? I trust he's ok.

Indeed, Jack was so active right up to and beyond the GE and then he just left us a bit sudden like. Hopefully OGH can report that he is faring OK?

Casino_Royale

Not taking it seriously.

FWIW, Trump is a total colossal prat and, if he did win the nomination, would be one of the very few Republicans that would lead to me supporting Hilary. Out of despair.

SquareRoot

I know this is a re-post and off thread, but for those who did not see it last night it bears a re-posting

oxfordsimonoxfordsimon • Posts: 806

July 20

TheScreamingEagles said:


One slight problem here.

Tax credits were introduced in 2003. When Lammy was 31 years old

@DavidLammy: When I was growing up my mum relied on tax credits. Tonight in opposing the Welfare Bill I voted for millions of people who do the same.

He really is thick. Utterly brainless.

Plato

OT Cameron making more anti-ghetto/extremism statements - breaking down the divisions in Bradford and Oldham http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4503841.ece

He in for a penny in for a pound on this one now. Labour local Bradford West MP Naz Shah not so keen on it.

SouthamObserver

Plato said:

OT Cameron making more anti-ghetto/extremism statements - breaking down the divisions in Bradford and Oldham http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4503841.ece

He in for a penny in for a pound on this one now. Labour local Bradford West MP Naz Shah not so keen on it.

How do you do it? Do you force people to move into certain areas and others to move out? Desegregation is a two way street. That is the challenge.

Plato

I think he has a secret twin brother - the one who got a degree, he's the other one who appeared on Mastermind and tweets.

Remember his racist papal smoke tweet?

David Lammy, the Labour MP, has apologised after accusing the BBC of spreading “silly innuendo” about the race of the Pope after he apparently failed to realise a tweet about “black or white” smoke referred to the way the conclave selects a new pontiff. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/the-pope/9926894/Labour-MP-embarrassed-after-claiming-that-white-or-black-smoke-tweet-about-the-Pope-is-about-race.html

SquareRoot said:

I know this is a re-post and off thread, but for those who did not see it last night it bears a re-posting

oxfordsimonoxfordsimon • Posts: 806

July 20

TheScreamingEagles said:


One slight problem here.

Tax credits were introduced in 2003. When Lammy was 31 years old

@DavidLammy: When I was growing up my mum relied on tax credits. Tonight in opposing the Welfare Bill I voted for millions of people who do the same.

He really is thick. Utterly brainless.

Casino_Royale

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

Plato

Not perfect, but a step in the right direction. I'm assuming that the investors and business people are the only people who can apply for such visas so quite a tightly controlled pilot group?

Under the new scheme, non-EU migrants wanting to move to the UK to live or work will be forced to produce a criminal checks certificate from the authorities in any country they have spent at least a year in over the previous decade.

The police certificate will disclose whether they have a clean record or have committed offences.

Those unable to provide proof will have their visa refused, and those found to have lied on their application form will be banned from entering the UK for ten years.

Initially, the Home Office will carry out a trial of the measure on investors and entrepreneurs applying for what is known as a Tier 1 visa and their spouses or adult children. Last year, it issued 6,354 permits under these categories.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3168872/Tougher-checks-migrants-outside-EU.html#ixzz3gVLfChOB
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Plato

Ah, and his slogan 999. And then the skeletons fell out of his closet

Cain ran as a Washington outsider and became a front-runner in the race in the fall of 2011. However, Cain's support plummeted after several women alleged that he had engaged in sexual harassment or, in one case, a 13-year extramarital affair. Cain and his wife unequivocally said the accusations were false, but Cain, citing the toll the allegations had taken on his family and his political support, suspended his campaign on December 3, 2011.[11][12]

JohnLoony said:

I googled him anyway out of curiosity - Herman Cain. But anyway. They should select Roberta McCain, not Jeb Bush.

Innocent_Abroad

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

I missed this, but it seems as though I might need to spend £3 and vote for Corbyn:

This is a man proud of his apple and blackcurrant jam, made from fruit grown on his allotment, a 66-year-old who likes trains – who really likes trains. “At meetings with train operators,” said his friend Emily Thornberry, Labour MP for Islington South, “Jeremy and other train hacks will start getting very over-excited, talking about bogies and God knows what.

“I don’t think he’s a trainspotter. He just knows more about trains than anyone ought to know.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/in-search-of-the-real-jeremy-corbyn--the-man-threatening-to-wrench-labour-to-the-left-10397997.html

With friends like that...

BTW, what's this "the coming fight for the White House in 2016 which almost certainly will be the biggest political painting event of next year" - painting?

Sandpit

Surely with 16 runners and 18 months of debate coming up, the sensible strategy would be to lay whoever is the flavour of this month?

Odds are not keeping up with the Trump polling data yet though, he's 20/1 for the nomination with most bookies.

Plato

At least the POTUS candidates are more entertaining than the Labour leadership ones

Sandpit said:

Surely with 16 runners and 18 months of debate coming up, the sensible strategy would be to lay whoever is the flavour of this month?

Odds are not keeping up with the Trump polling data yet though, he's 20/1 for the nomination with most bookies.

Financier

When Reagan was elected, people smiled. But in the end he turned out to be the quiet and efficient man who made good allies.

Trump is exactly the opposite, loud and brash and full of his self-importance - also he believe that money is the best talker.

The USA needs a president in the next five years who is good at choosing lieutenants and allies. That person will need to have really good experience and understanding of international relations as that is most likely to be the number one topic on their agenda. Such people are very rare in the USA.

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

I liked this in the 3rd para under the IDS photo:

"BBC political editor Normal Smith ..."

No_Offence_Alan

Plato said:

OT Cameron making more anti-ghetto/extremism statements - breaking down the divisions in Bradford and Oldham http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4503841.ece

He in for a penny in for a pound on this one now. Labour local Bradford West MP Naz Shah not so keen on it.

If he is so "anti-ghetto", when is Cameron bringing down the "peace walls" in Belfast?

MattW

Innocent_Abroad said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

I missed this, but it seems as though I might need to spend £3 and vote for Corbyn:

This is a man proud of his apple and blackcurrant jam, made from fruit grown on his allotment, a 66-year-old who likes trains – who really likes trains. “At meetings with train operators,” said his friend Emily Thornberry, Labour MP for Islington South, “Jeremy and other train hacks will start getting very over-excited, talking about bogies and God knows what.

“I don’t think he’s a trainspotter. He just knows more about trains than anyone ought to know.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/in-search-of-the-real-jeremy-corbyn--the-man-threatening-to-wrench-labour-to-the-left-10397997.html

Translation: On that subject he appears to know what he is talking about at the detailed level, unlike Emily.

Now he just needs to catch up with the idea that the failed part of the railways is the Government owned, run-by-committee bit.

Can we have an election pledge to nationalise Emily Thornberry, so we can guarantee she will stop going?

Plato

OT I think I'd sob my heart out if I bought this book - but what a read http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3168610/How-Wootton-Bassett-homecoming-parades-honour-fallen-soldiers-started-accident-skip-lorry-blocking-road.html

Innocent_Abroad

Plato said:

At least the POTUS candidates are more entertaining than the Labour leadership ones

Sandpit said:

Surely with 16 runners and 18 months of debate coming up, the sensible strategy would be to lay whoever is the flavour of this month?

Odds are not keeping up with the Trump polling data yet though, he's 20/1 for the nomination with most bookies.

Agreed

DaemonBarber

Morning all.

Jeez, can you imagine Trump as PotUS? Comedy gold right there.

Agree with others, surely the value lies in laying the leaders this far out.

MattW

In the pic in that Indy article is Comrade Corbyn wearing M&S Cycling Chinos?

DaemonBarber

The Trump wiki page is quite interesting. He may be comedy gold, but his life story is interesting.

For instance, I didn't know that his parents were both immigrants (Father 1st generation German parents, Mother Scottish).
Also he was sent to military school for behavioural reasons.

SouthamObserver

Financier said:

When Reagan was elected, people smiled. But in the end he turned out to be the quiet and efficient man who made good allies.

Trump is exactly the opposite, loud and brash and full of his self-importance - also he believe that money is the best talker.

The USA needs a president in the next five years who is good at choosing lieutenants and allies. That person will need to have really good experience and understanding of international relations as that is most likely to be the number one topic on their agenda. Such people are very rare in the USA.

People with deep knowledge, understanding and experience of international relations are rare everywhere. You acquire the experience on the job.

CD13

Good to see that America remains a beacon for democracy. But out of 300,000,000 people, you'd think they could find a President who wasn't called Clinton, Bush and/or was a multimillionaire.

Haven't quite got this democracy malarkey have they?

Never mind, if they pay back the tea tax they owe and promise to behave, we might let them back into the British Empire.

SouthamObserver

DaemonBarber said:

The Trump wiki page is quite interesting. He may be comedy gold, but his life story is interesting.

For instance, I didn't know that his parents were both immigrants (Father 1st generation German parents, Mother Scottish).
Also he was sent to military school for behavioural reasons.

I note that he bravely avoided service in the Vietnam War.

Can any man in this day and age with a Bobby Charlton ever be taken seriously?

Financier

DaemonBarber said:

The Trump wiki page is quite interesting. He may be comedy gold, but his life story is interesting.

For instance, I didn't know that his parents were both immigrants (Father 1st generation German parents, Mother Scottish).
Also he was sent to military school for behavioural reasons.

Perhaps he needs to go back to that school for a refresher course.

Financier

SouthamObserver said:

Financier said:

When Reagan was elected, people smiled. But in the end he turned out to be the quiet and efficient man who made good allies.

Trump is exactly the opposite, loud and brash and full of his self-importance - also he believe that money is the best talker.

The USA needs a president in the next five years who is good at choosing lieutenants and allies. That person will need to have really good experience and understanding of international relations as that is most likely to be the number one topic on their agenda. Such people are very rare in the USA.

People with deep knowledge, understanding and experience of international relations are rare everywhere. You acquire the experience on the job.

Agreed, but you do meet them more often in western Europe. Perhaps due a bit to our colonial past, but more likely of our need to export - a need that in the main the USA does not have.

JEO

SouthamObserver said:

Plato said:

OT Cameron making more anti-ghetto/extremism statements - breaking down the divisions in Bradford and Oldham http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4503841.ece

He in for a penny in for a pound on this one now. Labour local Bradford West MP Naz Shah not so keen on it.

How do you do it? Do you force people to move into certain areas and others to move out? Desegregation is a two way street. That is the challenge.

Maybe you could have tax breaks for people outside the ethnic group to move to that area? Perhaps central government could just map the areas with a high index of dissimilarity and incentivize local authorities to reduce them, encouraging local solutions?

Slackbladder

DaemonBarber said:

Morning all.

Jeez, can you imagine Trump as PotUS? Comedy gold right there.

Agree with others, surely the value lies in laying the leaders this far out.

Just think, there could be a parallel universe out there where Donald Trump will be POTUS and Corbyn would be PM.

Those summits would be fun.

Financier

OT More on Climate Change?

The volume of Arctic sea ice increased by around a third after an unusually cool summer in 2013.

Researchers say the growth continued in 2014 and more than compensated for losses recorded in the three previous years.

The scientists involved believe changes in summer temperatures have greater impacts on ice than thought.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33594654

rottenborough

Good to see us focusing on US presidentials. The GOP nomination process promises to be a roller coaster. The betting markets seem sure it is Jeb, Scott Walker or Marco Rubio. I'm on the first two, plus Fiorina as a wildcard.

JEO

The language requireme for Met recruitment comes after they banned applicants from the home counties. It seems like they are doing everything they can to discriminate against white British applicants while not doing it explicitly, as that would be against the law. Are we really expected to believe that English only speakers from Essex aren't capable of being London policemen?

bigjohnowls

peter_from_putney said:

I look forward to the day when we hear the authoritative words from Jack W:

"Hillary Clinton will never be POTUS."

HICIPOUS

Plato

HOCUSPOTUS

bigjohnowls said:

peter_from_putney said:

I look forward to the day when we hear the authoritative words from Jack W:

"Hillary Clinton will never be POTUS."

HICIPOUS

DaemonBarber

SouthamObserver said:

DaemonBarber said:

The Trump wiki page is quite interesting. He may be comedy gold, but his life story is interesting.

For instance, I didn't know that his parents were both immigrants (Father 1st generation German parents, Mother Scottish).
Also he was sent to military school for behavioural reasons.

I note that he bravely avoided service in the Vietnam War.

Can any man in this day and age with a Bobby Charlton ever be taken seriously?

Honestly, how can anybody look in the mirror after carefully combing-over and say, yep happy with that!
Donald promises America a new 'do' if it makes him president: Trump reveals he will ditch his infamous hair style in the White House - because comb-over takes too much time to maintain

bigjohnowls

Plato said:

HOCUSPOTUS

bigjohnowls said:

peter_from_putney said:

I look forward to the day when we hear the authoritative words from Jack W:

"Hillary Clinton will never be POTUS."

HICIPOUS

Bless you

Financier

RE: Rotherham and the Police

The police force at the centre of the Rotherham abuse scandal still needs to make "major improvements" to some child protection procedures, a report has found.

Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) criticised South Yorkshire Police last September.

A post-inspection review, conducted in April this year, found "significant concerns" remained.

There have, however, been "tangible signs" of progress since, HMIC said......

Inspectors' concerns:

Officers failed to identify young men who were sexually abusing girls of a similar age
Risk to children frequently reported missing from home was not always recognised
Details of strategy discussions, actions and meetings not always recorded for children considered to be at risk of serious harm
Progress to reduce children being held in custody "unnecessarily" was slow....

HMIC said the review of the inspection included an audit of 28 child protection cases which related directly to the areas for improvement identified in last year's inspection report.

The inspectors found two were assessed as good, 19 requiring improvement and seven inadequate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-33599061

I find it somewhat unforgivable that the culture of this police force (and perhaps others) has not completely changed.

Are they still afraid of treating everyone equally under the law or are they still obeying political instructions and is there still collusion between the police and the council.? It would appear that heads at the top need to roll fast.

Jonathan

If you have missed this, Ed Balls on TMS is worth a listen.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02xhc2r

rottenborough

Any gold bugs on PB? Seems events in China and some trader tricks are affecting the price.

Plato

IME, it's political fear. Both in towing what the *acceptable line* is and trying to cover up when things don't comply to it. Since the political line here may be entirely counter-intuitive to what Mr Normal would see as right - it's a nightmare.

HMIC inspections are rigorous if my direct experience is any yardstick. They scare the crap out of everyone in case they're found wanting/blamed for it.

I think SYP needs to start again from scratch. Leftovers from previous regimes just confuse/poison changes.

Financier said:

RE: Rotherham and the Police

The police force at the centre of the Rotherham abuse scandal still needs to make "major improvements" to some child protection procedures, a report has found.

Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) criticised South Yorkshire Police last September.

A post-inspection review, conducted in April this year, found "significant concerns" remained.

There have, however, been "tangible signs" of progress since, HMIC said......

Inspectors' concerns:

Officers failed to identify young men who were sexually abusing girls of a similar age
Risk to children frequently reported missing from home was not always recognised
Details of strategy discussions, actions and meetings not always recorded for children considered to be at risk of serious harm
Progress to reduce children being held in custody "unnecessarily" was slow....

HMIC said the review of the inspection included an audit of 28 child protection cases which related directly to the areas for improvement identified in last year's inspection report.

The inspectors found two were assessed as good, 19 requiring improvement and seven inadequate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-33599061

I find it somewhat unforgivable that the culture of this police force (and perhaps others) has not completely changed.

Are they still afraid of treating everyone equally under the law or are they still obeying political instructions and is there still collusion between the police and the council.? It would appear that heads at the top need to roll fast.

Scott_P

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

JEO

Financier,

Have any police officers, local authority officials or councillors that stood in the way of investigations been charge yet? Or even disciplined? I have heard several times that the abuse is still going on at Rotherham, that the LA is in denial, and that they keep on refusing to make improvements. It seems like there is a de facto immunity among these people.

Plato

I know he likes to play Bloke of the People, but he's making a right charlie of himself in so many ways.

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Slackbladder

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Sorry, can't come to the G7, it's a vital middle of the table scrap with Fulham...

rottenborough

Plato said:

I know he likes to play Bloke of the People, but he's making a right charlie of himself in so many ways.

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

I don't think he needs to worry about missing games from being PM.

FalseFlag

No real surprise Trump is doing so well when you look at the GOP establishment and the rivals he is up against.

McCain won't be making too much noise now Trump has brought up his war record, an open secret amongst vets.
http://www.unz.com/article/mccain-and-the-pow-cover-up/
http://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-when-tokyo-rose-ran-for-president/

I don't see him fading, media attacks have been rebuffed and immigration remains such a profoundly important issue in America that the donors won't allow the GOP to touch.

Scott_P

Even by its standards, Labour is in a mess.

The key to understanding this mess is found in a letter to colleagues from Andy Burnham, the favourite to be the party’s next leader. Explaining why he opposed the bill would would not actually vote against it, he wrote: “The Tories want to use this period to brand us in the way they did in 2010. We must not allow that to happen.” In other words, Conservative plans to reform welfare are popular, and opposing them is not.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/11751561/Labours-welfare-mess.html

#offtowatchEverton

Scott_P

@TelePolitics: Labour is in 'emotional trauma, divided and bewildered over what to do next', David Blunkett warns - live http://t.co/LECuRTWK8a

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: Labour is in 'emotional trauma, divided and bewildered over what to do next', David Blunkett warns - live http://t.co/LECuRTWK8a

It certainly seems like what ever else Ed was or was not, he was good at papering over cracks.

MyBurningEars

I love the inadvertent truth in this typo:

"we have not really focused on the coming fight for the White House in 2016 which almost certainly will be the biggest political painting event of next year"

Time for politicalpainting.com?

I liked that blue and red one of Obama, I have to say. And there are surely some splendidly cruel cartoons of Trump to be painted while he has his day in the sun.

Plato

Quite.

This newspaper does not endorse Mr Corbyn’s candidacy, but he is at least clear about his (mistaken) political beliefs and is happy to be judged accordingly. Instead of trying to pander to activists without offending the electorate, his fellow leadership contenders should follow his example and follow their own convictions. That is leadership, something Labour is utterly lacking today.

Scott_P said:

Even by its standards, Labour is in a mess.

The key to understanding this mess is found in a letter to colleagues from Andy Burnham, the favourite to be the party’s next leader. Explaining why he opposed the bill would would not actually vote against it, he wrote: “The Tories want to use this period to brand us in the way they did in 2010. We must not allow that to happen.” In other words, Conservative plans to reform welfare are popular, and opposing them is not.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/11751561/Labours-welfare-mess.html

#offtowatchEverton

dr_spyn

Unbelievably crass stuff - caring Labour not. Twitter has the real nasty party.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Twitter-users-trolls-Bristol-West-MP-Thangam/story-27453965-detail/story.html#comments

Casino_Royale

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Andy Burnham isn't much better in the prat stakes. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's a bit of a wag but, in reality, no one can tell when he's joking or not and when he is everyone is laughing at him not with him. The James Delingpole of the Left.

It has to be Cooper if not Kendall. Best of the worst.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

I liked this in the 3rd para under the IDS photo:

"BBC political editor Normal Smith ..."

That was pretty special.

Plato

Rebellion has 'strengthened' Labour says Jezza

Far from a "divided" party as David Blunkett describes it, left-wing Labour leadership candidate Jeremy Corbyn believes that the rebellion has "strengthened" the party because those voting against the welfare cuts had shown that the party still cares about those in need of help.

Quote I voted against it because of the effect it will have on children. In the absence of rent controls, all that is happening is that families can't afford their rent and it is resulting in social cleansing.We have shown that a lot of Labour MPs are deeply concerned about child poverty and homelessness.

Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: Labour is in 'emotional trauma, divided and bewildered over what to do next', David Blunkett warns - live http://t.co/LECuRTWK8a

Casino_Royale

rottenborough said:

Plato said:

I know he likes to play Bloke of the People, but he's making a right charlie of himself in so many ways.

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

I don't think he needs to worry about missing games from being PM.

ABWNMAEGBHWNBPM.

Casino_Royale

Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: Labour is in 'emotional trauma, divided and bewildered over what to do next', David Blunkett warns - live http://t.co/LECuRTWK8a

Step 1: accept they lost, fair and square.

Nothing else constructive can happen until they reach this state of acceptance. They are still in breakdown at having failed at the election and blaming everyone - the press, the money, the electorate, Murdoch, the CBI, the SNP, Lynton Crosby etc. - but themselves.

Plato

Urgh. She's also got the best name evah!

dr_spyn said:

Unbelievably crass stuff - caring Labour not. Twitter has the real nasty party.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Twitter-users-trolls-Bristol-West-MP-Thangam/story-27453965-detail/story.html#comments

Plato

I have no time for Yvette, but right now she's the only one who doesn't have UXB written on her.

- Liz will detonate the Party
- Jezza will detonate the electorate
- Andy will detonate himself before kick-off

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Andy Burnham isn't much better in the prat stakes. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's a bit of a wag but, in reality, no one can tell when he's joking or not and when he is everyone is laughing at him not with him. The James Delingpole of the Left.

It has to be Cooper if not Kendall. Best of the worst.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

I liked this in the 3rd para under the IDS photo:

"BBC political editor Normal Smith ..."

That was pretty special.

Financier

Matt on form again

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

Innocent_Abroad

Plato said:

I have no time for Yvette, but right now she's the only one who doesn't have UXB written on her.

- Liz will detonate the Party
- Jezza will detonate the electorate
- Andy will detonate himself before kick-off

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Andy Burnham isn't much better in the prat stakes. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's a bit of a wag but, in reality, no one can tell when he's joking or not and when he is everyone is laughing at him not with him. The James Delingpole of the Left.

It has to be Cooper if not Kendall. Best of the worst.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

I liked this in the 3rd para under the IDS photo:

"BBC political editor Normal Smith ..."

That was pretty special.

Why is the opinion of a Tory of any consequence?

Casino_Royale

dr_spyn said:

Unbelievably crass stuff - caring Labour not. Twitter has the real nasty party.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Twitter-users-trolls-Bristol-West-MP-Thangam/story-27453965-detail/story.html#comments

Labour have reverted to a previous evolutionary state c.1980 where they want to sniff out anyone who's not a true believer of Marx and anyone who dissents or advocates reform is a 'Tory'.

I'm trying to remember how that turned out for them last time.

Edit: health issues aside, and I wish her well for a full recovery, I simply love her name. She sounds like she should have played a starring role in The Persuaders.

SouthamObserver

Jonathan said:

If you have missed this, Ed Balls on TMS is worth a listen.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02xhc2r

I heard it on Sunday. He was very good. Seemed to be very happy with life.

Plato

Cos people like me voted Labour when they won. Simples.

Innocent_Abroad said:

Plato said:

I have no time for Yvette, but right now she's the only one who doesn't have UXB written on her.

- Liz will detonate the Party
- Jezza will detonate the electorate
- Andy will detonate himself before kick-off

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Andy Burnham isn't much better in the prat stakes. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's a bit of a wag but, in reality, no one can tell when he's joking or not and when he is everyone is laughing at him not with him. The James Delingpole of the Left.

It has to be Cooper if not Kendall. Best of the worst.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

I liked this in the 3rd para under the IDS photo:

"BBC political editor Normal Smith ..."

That was pretty special.

Why is the opinion of a Tory of any consequence?

Plato

I barked with laughter there.

Financier said:

Matt on form again

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

Scott_P

Plato said:

I have no time for Yvette, but right now she's the only one who doesn't have UXB written on her.

- Liz will detonate the Party
- Jezza will detonate the electorate
- Andy will detonate himself before kick-off

@rjstaff90: Malcolm Tucker's words describe the Labour Party right now: "Fuck me, this is like watching clowns run across a minefield". #WelfareBill

dr_spyn

One of the trolls on Twitter is a Green Councillor in Bristol.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Twitter-users-trolls-Bristol-West-MP-Thangam/story-27453965-detail/story.html

notme

Plato said:

Cos people like me voted Labour when they won. Simples.

Innocent_Abroad said:

Plato said:

I have no time for Yvette, but right now she's the only one who doesn't have UXB written on her.

- Liz will detonate the Party
- Jezza will detonate the electorate
- Andy will detonate himself before kick-off

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Andy Burnham isn't much better in the prat stakes. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's a bit of a wag but, in reality, no one can tell when he's joking or not and when he is everyone is laughing at him not with him. The James Delingpole of the Left.

It has to be Cooper if not Kendall. Best of the worst.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

I liked this in the 3rd para under the IDS photo:

"BBC political editor Normal Smith ..."

That was pretty special.

Why is the opinion of a Tory of any consequence?

They continue to fail to get it. If you want to win an election you need to appeal those who voted for someone else in May. If you chase those who dont vote, even if you get them to agree with you, they still probably wont vote.

Pulpstar

GBP EUR at 1.44 !

rottenborough

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

If you have missed this, Ed Balls on TMS is worth a listen.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02xhc2r

I heard it on Sunday. He was very good. Seemed to be very happy with life.

Bet he's glad he's not involved.

TGOHF

Kendall should be on the phone to Blunkett right now asking him for help.

Plato

Despite detesting Mr Balls as The Most Irritating Man In Politics - he'd wipe the floor with the rest of them.

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

If you have missed this, Ed Balls on TMS is worth a listen.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02xhc2r

I heard it on Sunday. He was very good. Seemed to be very happy with life.

Bet he's glad he's not involved.

Casino_Royale

Where are the latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg bursting with their sense of destiny these days?

notme

dr_spyn said:

Unbelievably crass stuff - caring Labour not. Twitter has the real nasty party.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Twitter-users-trolls-Bristol-West-MP-Thangam/story-27453965-detail/story.html#comments

Why does this scene from Red Dwarf come to mind?

How many times does she have to tell them to understand that she was having treatment, and she was paired anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shs7VQhVvxA

Plato

Ever since I first posted on PB - this has completely perplexed me.

I started out as a 97/01/05 Labour voter who was really regretting it. I'd have called myself a sort of social democrat. Back in 2007ish, I didn't know who to vote for and then persuaded that the Tories had finally got their act together. Now I've joined them to keep Labour away from Number 10 for the next 20yrs.

I've voted for every winning Party since 1987 bar a deliberately wasted Paddy vote in 1992 when neither Labour nor Tories were credible. If Labour continue to dismiss people like me - well they're unlikely to win again.

notme said:

Plato said:

Cos people like me voted Labour when they won. Simples.

Innocent_Abroad said:

Plato said:

I have no time for Yvette, but right now she's the only one who doesn't have UXB written on her.

- Liz will detonate the Party
- Jezza will detonate the electorate
- Andy will detonate himself before kick-off

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Andy Burnham isn't much better in the prat stakes. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's a bit of a wag but, in reality, no one can tell when he's joking or not and when he is everyone is laughing at him not with him. The James Delingpole of the Left.

It has to be Cooper if not Kendall. Best of the worst.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

I liked this in the 3rd para under the IDS photo:

"BBC political editor Normal Smith ..."

That was pretty special.

Why is the opinion of a Tory of any consequence?

They continue to fail to get it. If you want to win an election you need to appeal those who voted for someone else in May. If you chase those who dont vote, even if you get them to agree with you, they still probably wont vote.

FrancisUrquhart

Toshiba chief executive to resign over scandal

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33605638

Sounds very very similar to Olympus scandal, of which there is a fascinating documentary.

Plato

Did you read his auto biog? It's quite interesting.

TGOHF said:

Kendall should be on the phone to Blunkett right now asking him for help.

TCPoliticalBetting

Plato said:

Cos people like me voted Labour when they won. Simples.

Innocent_Abroad said:

Plato said:

I have no time for Yvette, but right now she's the only one who doesn't have UXB written on her.

- Liz will detonate the Party
- Jezza will detonate the electorate
- Andy will detonate himself before kick-off

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Andy Burnham isn't much better in the prat stakes. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's a bit of a wag but, in reality, no one can tell when he's joking or not and when he is everyone is laughing at him not with him. The James Delingpole of the Left.

It has to be Cooper if not Kendall. Best of the worst.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

I liked this in the 3rd para under the IDS photo:

"BBC political editor Normal Smith ..."

That was pretty special.

Why is the opinion of a Tory of any consequence?

It is ok they do not need your vote. They are going for a pure socialist 20% vote strategy.

FalseFlag

Plato said:

OT Cameron making more anti-ghetto/extremism statements - breaking down the divisions in Bradford and Oldham http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4503841.ece

He in for a penny in for a pound on this one now. Labour local Bradford West MP Naz Shah not so keen on it.

So neo con Cameron's answer is forced busing, what an idiot he is, a unfortunately an extremely dangerous one.

How about establishing a Palestinian state, not invading Islamic countries like Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, how about not destabilising Syria, not sponsoring Salafist terror groups, not allowing Salafist money in this country, securing our borders and deporting undesirables.

Let's hope Corbyn wins the Labour leadership, Cameron is a dangerous man who will commit us to endless war if he can.

TGOHF

Some interesting financial data

ineForNothing ‏@minefornothing 2m2 minutes ago
UK government receipts - Y/Y change in June

VAT +6.9%
Income Tax +3.1%
Corporation Tax +13.9%

ONS:

Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks decreased by £6.1 billion to £25.1 billion (1.4% of Gross Domestic Product) in the current financial year-to-date (April 2015 to June 2015) compared to the same period in 2014.

Scotland under the Nats

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11752229/Prestwick-Airport-taxpayer-losses-increase-to-4-million.html

"SNP ministers come under more pressure to justify buying the loss-making airport as it emerges the taxpayer has lent it £10.8 million."

" Ryanair – Prestwick's only passenger airline — then announced it was cutting its winter schedule from the airport from 42 flights per week to 13. Passenger numbers influence around half the airport's income."

bigjohnowls

TGOHF said:

Kendall should be on the phone to Blunkett right now asking him for help.

Blind leading the Blind

Sandpit

Plato said:

Cos people like me voted Labour when they won. Simples.

Innocent_Abroad said:

Plato said:

I have no time for Yvette, but right now she's the only one who doesn't have UXB written on her.

- Liz will detonate the Party
- Jezza will detonate the electorate
- Andy will detonate himself before kick-off

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Recall Parliament to discuss sending troops into battle?

Sorry, mate, I'm at the game...

@TelePolitics: Andy Burnham: I won't miss an Everton game, even if I'm Prime Minister http://t.co/EGjSwI9JwZ

Andy Burnham isn't much better in the prat stakes. He strikes me as a guy who thinks he's a bit of a wag but, in reality, no one can tell when he's joking or not and when he is everyone is laughing at him not with him. The James Delingpole of the Left.

It has to be Cooper if not Kendall. Best of the worst.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

"A Labour amendment seeking to derail the legislation was defeated by 308 votes to 208."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33604287

What was that about the SNP forming common cause with Labour?

I liked this in the 3rd para under the IDS photo:

"BBC political editor Normal Smith ..."

That was pretty special.

Why is the opinion of a Tory of any consequence?

Quite. There's two million that just voted for Cameron that need to be persuaded back to the Red team if they want to win the election - appealing to Marxists and Greens may be comfortable but it's hardly a winning strategy.

http://www.totalpolitics.com/opinion/450581/labour-needs-to-focus-on-the-squeezed-middle-once-again.thtml

Squeezed middle C1/C2 voters are often overlooked but they are decisive in elections. They make up more than half the electorate in the vast majority of the English swing seats that Labour needs to win to secure a workable majority. But Labour has been steadily losing these voters’ support since Tony Blair left office. Getting them back will require serious change.
...
While many Labour voices reject virtually any changes to the welfare state, squeezed middle voters care deeply about welfare reform. Our research showed that, by 64 per cent to 22 per cent, C1 voters in marginal seats believe that the welfare state is too generous. C2 voters in marginal seats believe the same by 61 per cent to 23 per cent. While C1/C2 voters in marginals put reforming welfare towards the top of their list of policy priorities, few believe this is a Labour priority.

Pulpstar

notme said:

dr_spyn said:

Unbelievably crass stuff - caring Labour not. Twitter has the real nasty party.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Twitter-users-trolls-Bristol-West-MP-Thangam/story-27453965-detail/story.html#comments

Why does this scene from Red Dwarf come to mind?

How many times does she have to tell them to understand that she was having treatment, and she was paired anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shs7VQhVvxA

A list of paired MPs for the vote would be interesting. Were any of the leadership contenders paired ?

TGOHF

FalseFlag said:

Plato said:

OT Cameron making more anti-ghetto/extremism statements - breaking down the divisions in Bradford and Oldham http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4503841.ece

He in for a penny in for a pound on this one now. Labour local Bradford West MP Naz Shah not so keen on it.

So neo con Cameron's answer is forced busing, what an idiot he is, a unfortunately an extremely dangerous one.

How about establishing a Palestinian state, not invading Islamic countries like Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, how about not destabilising Syria, not sponsoring Salafist terror groups, not allowing Salafist money in this country, securing our borders and deporting undesirables.

Let's hope Corbyn wins the Labour leadership, Cameron is a dangerous man who will commit us to endless war if he can.

Yeah its all our fault - we should apologise. If only other immigrant groups like the Chinese and Indians could stand up for themselves and express their own cultures in a totalitarian way they could enjoy Rotherham levels of happiness.

TheWhiteRabbit

TGOHF

Overall Number 10 won't mind these figures. Although a drop of £0.8bn isn't as much as hoped, there are signs this is tax-receipts driven recovery, which bodes well for the end of the year, and the revision of £0.6bn down for the year to date means the government is still on track.

TGOHF

bigjohnowls said:

TGOHF said:

Kendall should be on the phone to Blunkett right now asking him for help.

Blind leading the Blind

Sounds like Blunkett is interested in winning in 2020 - aren't you ?