At this rate, I'm going to be the only PBer not voting in the Labour leadership election
Don't miss out on the fun!
I'm sticking to my line, I'd be narked if Labour supporters tried to sabotage a Tory leadership election.
What are your thoughts on open primaries?
I'm torn between "democratic" and "vulnerable". Though the US experience (where candidates try to appeal to their party wingnuts before calming down to appeal to the wider electorate if they actually get selected) is not very appealing, even on the "democratic" front. And there is the argument that at least in the Tory party, they may make it harder to get a broad slate of BAME/women candidates, though I have no idea how true that is.
Could I vote for Labour again? Or even rejoin the party rather than be a registered supporter? Quite possibly, but only under a new generation.
I did not lie when registering as a supporter.
I feel much the same. I think this is a fair enough reason to participate in the elections. Even HYUFD is voting to express genuine preferences rather than to sabotage things, even if he isn't a natural Labour man, and I think that's fair enough too even if it goes against the spirit somewhat.
Indeed, I am will put Corbyn last so will not sabotage
Very principled. Your preferred order is near-enough the reverse of mine! But I don't think that vote-swapping so neither of us need to bother actually works in AV elections...
“In a general election trial heat, Clinton leads Bush, the GOP fundraising leader, by a slight 50-44 percent among registered voters. But with Trump as an independent candidate that goes to 46-30-20 percent, Clinton-Bush-Trump – with Trump drawing support disproportionately from Bush, turning a 6-point Clinton advantage into 16 points.” http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1170a22016Politics.pdf
It's come to the point where a 6% lead is "slight". In some state polls, like in Nevada and Virginia, Trump actually does better than Bush against Hillary, in fact in Nevada Trump gets more hispanic voters than Bush or Rubio, which tells a lot about the unpopularity of Bush and Rubio among minorities.
Anyway, my take on the Benefits Bill is that Harman did Labour no favours, the reaction inside Labour will be harsh and just at the right time to elect a new leader.
Cameron's speech on terrorism and Islam etc... Very good I think.
Cameron's really impressing me at the moment (and as you may have observed I'm not that easy to impress)
Seem's Richard Nabavi has been right about Cam all aloing!!!!
He finally actually dropped that stupid and terrible line about the latest terrorist attack having nothing to do with Islam and is using the same language as his own Muslim Minister saying that is nonsense and just trying to ignore it is part of the problem i.e. that these extremists claim to be following the purest interruption of the Koran, want to take the world back to the 7th Century and thus are the purest Muslims.
This is what needs to be challenged and by at least acknowledging this it is at least a start.
@Scott_P Any election with just two candidates is necessarily FPTP, including the final round of an AV election. The Tories have an AV election. The twist is the electorate changes for the final round...
No they don't. As well as the final-round twist, they have a system where punters can change their preferences between each round. Big difference.
@Scott_P Any election with just two candidates is necessarily FPTP, including the final round of an AV election. The Tories have an AV election. The twist is the electorate changes for the final round...
No they don't. As well as the final-round twist, they have a system where punters can change their preferences between each round. Big difference.
Sorry, yes that should read quasi-AV. It's actually known as the Exhaustive Ballot. I was trying to emphasize it's not FPTP.
Could labour's position on the welfare changes be possibly any worse? They've peeved off everyone and pleased no one.
We now have an Ominshambles Opposition.
Shame there's not a PMQ's this week... That would be a good line for Cam to pick up if he's reading us now while chillaxing with a glass of something cold and bubbly.
@Scott_P Any election with just two candidates is necessarily FPTP, including the final round of an AV election. The Tories have an AV election. The twist is the electorate changes for the final round...
No they don't. As well as the final-round twist, they have a system where punters can change their preferences between each round. Big difference.
Sorry, yes that should read quasi-AV. It's actually known as the Exhaustive Ballot. I was trying to emphasize it's not FPTP.
And nor is it a system for choosing an electoral college which then chooses the government.
Apart from those major three differences of purpose and operation, it has some similarities with AV as an electoral system.
Der Spiegel report claims that the latest Greek bailout deal was not designed to be accepted by Greece, just to be so bad as to force Greece into Grexit.
"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble had a plan to push Greece out of the euro zone. Chancellor Merkel wasn't sure what to do about it. The result is widespread resentment of Germany and a damaged Franco-German relationship."
Schäuble first consulted with other conservative finance ministers belonging, as Schäuble's CDU does, to the European People's Party. Like Schäuble, most were in favor of a Grexit and the men hatched a plan for how they could force Greece from the common currency area. The ministers agreed to formulate such strict conditions for a third aid package that the Greek government would never be able to accept them. As a means to push Greece out of the euro, Schäuble had devised a so-called trust fund, into which all revenues from the sale of Greek assets would flow. For Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, that would have been impertinent enough. But the conservative ministers wanted to go even further and demand that the fund be located in Luxembourg, a stipulation Tsipras could not possibly accept.
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated. Then they wonder why people are voting for Corbyn
People on Twitter are far more often wrong than they are right.
If there was any prospect of a defeat, the Tory whips would have worked extra hard to avoid it. As it was, the Labour position meant the Tory back room boys and girls could have an easy time of it.
AV is a great system, because it is almost impossible to "game." I'm really enjoying this Labour leadership contest. I hope Corbyn beats the androids...
@corporeal. The UK system became uniform in 1950, not 1945, with the abolition of the STV (University) seats and the last few double-members.
@Scott_P Any election with just two candidates is necessarily FPTP, including the final round of an AV election. The Tories have an AV election. The twist is the electorate changes for the final round...
Quite right, clearly we haven't done a thread on it recently enough.
Technically not AV I believe, since it's a multi-round system rather than preferences (AV being also known as instant run-off voting), but very much of the same family (complicated by the change in electorate). (As I see you've noted)
@Scott_P Any election with just two candidates is necessarily FPTP, including the final round of an AV election. The Tories have an AV election. The twist is the electorate changes for the final round...
No they don't. As well as the final-round twist, they have a system where punters can change their preferences between each round. Big difference.
Sorry, yes that should read quasi-AV. It's actually known as the Exhaustive Ballot. I was trying to emphasize it's not FPTP.
And nor is it a system for choosing an electoral college which then chooses the government.
Apart from those major three differences of purpose and operation, it has some similarities with AV as an electoral system.
Welcome back, BTW!
It's classified as being in the same 'family' as AV by psephologists, along with the French two-round system, the Contingent Vote and several others.
“In a general election trial heat, Clinton leads Bush, the GOP fundraising leader, by a slight 50-44 percent among registered voters. But with Trump as an independent candidate that goes to 46-30-20 percent, Clinton-Bush-Trump – with Trump drawing support disproportionately from Bush, turning a 6-point Clinton advantage into 16 points.” http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1170a22016Politics.pdf
It's come to the point where a 6% lead is "slight". In some state polls, like in Nevada and Virginia, Trump actually does better than Bush against Hillary, in fact in Nevada Trump gets more hispanic voters than Bush or Rubio, which tells a lot about the unpopularity of Bush and Rubio among minorities.
Anyway, my take on the Benefits Bill is that Harman did Labour no favours, the reaction inside Labour will be harsh and just at the right time to elect a new leader.
Goodnight.
Still the number of Hispanic registered Republicans is pretty small in a sample of US poll size (often a few hundred people), so treat like Welsh Ukip subsamples.
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated.
Proof, if ever it were needed, that you shouldn't believe everything you read on Twitter.
The person is saying only 308 MPs voted for it (hence would've been outnumbered if everyone else voted against).
That's what alex salmond just said. But does that figure take into account pairing etc? And how many MPs were only a lobby bell away from getting there?
“In a general election trial heat, Clinton leads Bush, the GOP fundraising leader, by a slight 50-44 percent among registered voters. But with Trump as an independent candidate that goes to 46-30-20 percent, Clinton-Bush-Trump – with Trump drawing support disproportionately from Bush, turning a 6-point Clinton advantage into 16 points.” http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1170a22016Politics.pdf
It's come to the point where a 6% lead is "slight". In some state polls, like in Nevada and Virginia, Trump actually does better than Bush against Hillary, in fact in Nevada Trump gets more hispanic voters than Bush or Rubio, which tells a lot about the unpopularity of Bush and Rubio among minorities.
Anyway, my take on the Benefits Bill is that Harman did Labour no favours, the reaction inside Labour will be harsh and just at the right time to elect a new leader.
Goodnight.
I remain of the view Hillary will win but it will be tight. On the Benefits Bill Harman could not oppose without risking losing floating voters
“In a general election trial heat, Clinton leads Bush, the GOP fundraising leader, by a slight 50-44 percent among registered voters. But with Trump as an independent candidate that goes to 46-30-20 percent, Clinton-Bush-Trump – with Trump drawing support disproportionately from Bush, turning a 6-point Clinton advantage into 16 points.” http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1170a22016Politics.pdf
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated.
Proof, if ever it were needed, that you shouldn't believe everything you read on Twitter.
The person is saying only 308 MPs voted for it (hence would've been outnumbered if everyone else voted against).
That's what alex salmond just said. But does that figure take into account pairing etc? And how many MPs were only a lobby bell away from getting there?
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated.
Proof, if ever it were needed, that you shouldn't believe everything you read on Twitter.
The person is saying only 308 MPs voted for it (hence would've been outnumbered if everyone else voted against).
This 'person' doesn't understand how voting in the Commons works then. This is what happens when you let 'people' have access to keyboards and an internet connection!
Andrew Sparrow nails it in his as-ever excellent live blog:
Overall, it has been a terrific night for the Tories, and for George Osborne in particular. The chancellor did some choice stirring this morning, using a Guardian article to urge Labour MPs to vote with the government, and if that was intended to embolden Labour rebels, it probably worked. Labour are entitled to say that the party has had bigger rebellions before. But Harriet Harman wanted to use a Labour abstention to show that the party was changing its stance on welfare, but instead her tactic backfired, because all the focus tonight has been on the Labour split. ... it seems quite likely that, by the time MPs get to vote on the bill’s third reading, the Labour leader will be either Burnham or Cooper and the party as a whole will be voting against the bill. No doubt that would please Osborne too.
The person is saying only 308 MPs voted for it (hence would've been outnumbered if everyone else voted against).
Indeed - if nothing else changed.
Eitherway, it's a gift to Corbyn. It shows how bogus this whole line from the leadership is about how "Labour can't stop these things anyway so it doesn't matter how they vote". With such a thin govt majority, and probably quite a few Tory MPs quietly nervous about what their electoral prospects will be once low-paid workers' incomes start dropping, how Labour votes could make the difference between these things passing or not passing.
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated.
Proof, if ever it were needed, that you shouldn't believe everything you read on Twitter.
The person is saying only 308 MPs voted for it (hence would've been outnumbered if everyone else voted against).
That's what alex salmond just said. But does that figure take into account pairing etc? And how many MPs were only a lobby bell away from getting there?
Nats relying on their supporters being thick as usual ?
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated.
Proof, if ever it were needed, that you shouldn't believe everything you read on Twitter.
The person is saying only 308 MPs voted for it (hence would've been outnumbered if everyone else voted against).
That's what alex salmond just said. But does that figure take into account pairing etc? And how many MPs were only a lobby bell away from getting there?
I forget what it was about, but I remember one vote (copied from the plot of a tv series if I recall correctly) where people pretended they weren't going to vote and had gone home, hid in their offices, and then slipped in to vote at the last minute to get a surprise loss.
So literally every single opposition MP would have had to turn up and vote against - ie including Carswell, all Northern Ireland (exc SF) - and even then the Government would only lose by just 3 votes.
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated.
Proof, if ever it were needed, that you shouldn't believe everything you read on Twitter.
The person is saying only 308 MPs voted for it (hence would've been outnumbered if everyone else voted against).
That's what alex salmond just said. But does that figure take into account pairing etc? And how many MPs were only a lobby bell away from getting there?
I forget what it was about, but I remember one vote (copied from the plot of a tv series if I recall correctly) where people pretended they weren't going to vote and had gone home, hid in their offices, and then slipped in to vote at the last minute to get a surprise loss.
Diane Abbott / Debbie Abrahams / David Anderson Richard Burgon / Dawn Butler / Ann Clwyd Jeremy Corbyn / Geraint Davies / Peter Dowd Paul Flynn / Mary Glindon / Roger Godsiff Helen Goodman / Margaret Greenwood / Louise Haigh Carolyn Harris / Sue Hayman / Imran Hussain Gerald Jones / Helen Jones / Sir Gerald Kaufman Sadiq Khan / David Lammy / Ian Lavery Clive Lewis / Rebecca Long Bailey / Andy McDonald John McDonnell / Liz McInnes / Rob Marris Rachael Maskell / Michael Meacher / Ian Mearns Madeleine Moon / Grahame Morris / Kate Osamor Teresa Pearce / Marie Rimmer / Paula Sherriff Tulip Siddiq / Dennis Skinner / Cat Smith Jo Stevens / Graham Stringer / David Winnick Iain Wright / Daniel Zeichner / Kelvin Hopkins (Teller)
So literally every single opposition MP would have had to turn up and vote against - ie including Carswell, all Northern Ireland (exc SF) - and even then the Government would only lose by just 3 votes.
AFAIK, all non-Tory MPs bar Carswell would oppose welfare cuts.
So literally every single opposition MP would have had to turn up and vote against - ie including Carswell, all Northern Ireland (exc SF) - and even then the Government would only lose by just 3 votes.
AFAIK, all non-Tory MPs bar Carswell would oppose welfare cuts.
Sure - but if the Govt knew that Carswell would not vote against then they would only need to know that 3 opposition MPs were absent in order to win.
They may have known that a whole host of people were not present.
“In a general election trial heat, Clinton leads Bush, the GOP fundraising leader, by a slight 50-44 percent among registered voters. But with Trump as an independent candidate that goes to 46-30-20 percent, Clinton-Bush-Trump – with Trump drawing support disproportionately from Bush, turning a 6-point Clinton advantage into 16 points.” http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1170a22016Politics.pdf
Dust off your Ross Perot comparisons everyone.
Indeed, though research has shown Perot drew equally from Bush and Clinton in 1992. Night
Tax credits were introduced in 2003. When Lammy was 31 years old
@DavidLammy: When I was growing up my mum relied on tax credits. Tonight in opposing the Welfare Bill I voted for millions of people who do the same.
If you are going to lie, at least make it plausible. The man is a total moron and the fact he is ever consider for any significant role constantly amazes me. He was a total disaster when he had government role to do with higher education.
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated.
Proof, if ever it were needed, that you shouldn't believe everything you read on Twitter.
The person is saying only 308 MPs voted for it (hence would've been outnumbered if everyone else voted against).
That's what alex salmond just said. But does that figure take into account pairing etc? And how many MPs were only a lobby bell away from getting there?
I forget what it was about, but I remember one vote (copied from the plot of a tv series if I recall correctly) where people pretended they weren't going to vote and had gone home, hid in their offices, and then slipped in to vote at the last minute to get a surprise loss.
Labour seem to have made a complete fiasco of today. George Osborne must be unable to believe his luck.
Unbelievably inept. All Tory Christmases have come at once. This has increased the chance of Corbyn as leader. Labour ought to have voted against of course, and highlighted the egregious edge-cases in the legislation which render hardship on the poorest. That's their job.
Based on his 'I voted against it before I abstained.....and I'll vote against it when I become leader (unless undefined major changes are made)' stance, I'm calling the Labour leadership election for anyone but Burnham. The bile being directed at him from within the Labour party is really something to behold.
Oh George, what a masterstroke that budget was.......
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated. Then they wonder why people are voting for Corbyn
People on Twitter are far more often wrong than they are right.
If there was any prospect of a defeat, the Tory whips would have worked extra hard to avoid it. As it was, the Labour position meant the Tory back room boys and girls could have an easy time of it.
I'd hope the Tory whips were smart enough to keep the Aye vote at <310 deliberately.
People on Twitter saying if Labour had voted against the welfare bill, it would've been defeated. Then they wonder why people are voting for Corbyn
People on Twitter are far more often wrong than they are right.
If there was any prospect of a defeat, the Tory whips would have worked extra hard to avoid it. As it was, the Labour position meant the Tory back room boys and girls could have an easy time of it.
I'd hope the Tory whips were smart enough to keep the Aye vote at <310 deliberately.</p>
My thoughts exactly.....paints it as a possible loss which will enrage the Lab rank and file.
Looks like a bit of an age and gender divide on the Labour benches: younger male MPs not prepared to rebel over the welfare changes. Probably mirrors public opinion.
"Budding police constables must speak second language in Met pilot scheme
Hopefuls must have command of English plus one of 14 other languages: Arabic, Bengali, German, Greek, Hebrew, Hindi, Italian, Polish, Portuguese, Punjabi, Sinhala (Sri Lanka), Spanish, Turkish or Yoruba (Nigeria)."
"Budding police constables must speak second language in Met pilot scheme
Hopefuls must have command of English plus one of 14 other languages: Arabic, Bengali, German, Greek, Hebrew, Hindi, Italian, Polish, Portuguese, Punjabi, Sinhala (Sri Lanka), Spanish, Turkish or Yoruba (Nigeria)."
Surprising that Broxtowe CLP has nominated Corbyn. You'd have thought they'd be a relatively moderate branch. On the other hand the same could be said of Bedford who also nominated him.
Surprising that Broxtowe CLP has nominated Corbyn. You'd have thought they'd be a relatively moderate branch. On the other hand the same could be said of Bedford who also nominated him.
They picked the only HUM∀N candidate on the ballot...
"Budding police constables must speak second language in Met pilot scheme
Hopefuls must have command of English plus one of 14 other languages: Arabic, Bengali, German, Greek, Hebrew, Hindi, Italian, Polish, Portuguese, Punjabi, Sinhala (Sri Lanka), Spanish, Turkish or Yoruba (Nigeria)."
Comments
In some state polls, like in Nevada and Virginia, Trump actually does better than Bush against Hillary, in fact in Nevada Trump gets more hispanic voters than Bush or Rubio, which tells a lot about the unpopularity of Bush and Rubio among minorities.
Anyway, my take on the Benefits Bill is that Harman did Labour no favours, the reaction inside Labour will be harsh and just at the right time to elect a new leader.
Goodnight.
This is what needs to be challenged and by at least acknowledging this it is at least a start.
We now have an Ominshambles Opposition.
He won't vote down the Bill - but will vote for an amendment that is bound to fail.
That is like having two cakes and eating neither - just sitting watching them rot in front of you.
Apart from those major three differences of purpose and operation, it has some similarities with AV as an electoral system.
Welcome back, BTW!
"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble had a plan to push Greece out of the euro zone. Chancellor Merkel wasn't sure what to do about it. The result is widespread resentment of Germany and a damaged Franco-German relationship."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/schaeuble-pushed-for-a-grexit-and-backed-merkel-into-a-corner-a-1044259.html
Schäuble first consulted with other conservative finance ministers belonging, as Schäuble's CDU does, to the European People's Party. Like Schäuble, most were in favor of a Grexit and the men hatched a plan for how they could force Greece from the common currency area. The ministers agreed to formulate such strict conditions for a third aid package that the Greek government would never be able to accept them. As a means to push Greece out of the euro, Schäuble had devised a so-called trust fund, into which all revenues from the sale of Greek assets would flow. For Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, that would have been impertinent enough. But the conservative ministers wanted to go even further and demand that the fund be located in Luxembourg, a stipulation Tsipras could not possibly accept.
If there was any prospect of a defeat, the Tory whips would have worked extra hard to avoid it. As it was, the Labour position meant the Tory back room boys and girls could have an easy time of it.
Technically not AV I believe, since it's a multi-round system rather than preferences (AV being also known as instant run-off voting), but very much of the same family (complicated by the change in electorate). (As I see you've noted)
Overall, it has been a terrific night for the Tories, and for George Osborne in particular. The chancellor did some choice stirring this morning, using a Guardian article to urge Labour MPs to vote with the government, and if that was intended to embolden Labour rebels, it probably worked. Labour are entitled to say that the party has had bigger rebellions before. But Harriet Harman wanted to use a Labour abstention to show that the party was changing its stance on welfare, but instead her tactic backfired, because all the focus tonight has been on the Labour split.
...
it seems quite likely that, by the time MPs get to vote on the bill’s third reading, the Labour leader will be either Burnham or Cooper and the party as a whole will be voting against the bill. No doubt that would please Osborne too.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jul/20/reaction-to-camerons-speech-on-tackling-extremism-politics-live
In fact the same journalist had indeed asked George Osborne about his weight earlier on.
319 Opposition MPs. Then deduct:
4 Sinn Fein
2 Deputy Speakers
2 tellers
Leaves just 311.
So literally every single opposition MP would have had to turn up and vote against - ie including Carswell, all Northern Ireland (exc SF) - and even then the Government would only lose by just 3 votes.
http://labourlist.org/2015/07/48-mps-break-whip-to-vote-against-welfare-bill-full-list/
Diane Abbott / Debbie Abrahams / David Anderson
Richard Burgon / Dawn Butler / Ann Clwyd
Jeremy Corbyn / Geraint Davies / Peter Dowd
Paul Flynn / Mary Glindon / Roger Godsiff
Helen Goodman / Margaret Greenwood / Louise Haigh
Carolyn Harris / Sue Hayman / Imran Hussain
Gerald Jones / Helen Jones / Sir Gerald Kaufman
Sadiq Khan / David Lammy / Ian Lavery
Clive Lewis / Rebecca Long Bailey / Andy McDonald
John McDonnell / Liz McInnes / Rob Marris
Rachael Maskell / Michael Meacher / Ian Mearns
Madeleine Moon / Grahame Morris / Kate Osamor
Teresa Pearce / Marie Rimmer / Paula Sherriff
Tulip Siddiq / Dennis Skinner / Cat Smith
Jo Stevens / Graham Stringer / David Winnick
Iain Wright / Daniel Zeichner / Kelvin Hopkins (Teller)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/welfare-bill-passed-48-labour-mps-defy-leadership-and-vote-against
Tax credits were introduced in 2003. When Lammy was 31 years old
@DavidLammy: When I was growing up my mum relied on tax credits. Tonight in opposing the Welfare Bill I voted for millions of people who do the same.
They may have known that a whole host of people were not present.
Richard Burgon, Imran Hussain, Gerald Jones, Sadiq Khan, David Lammy, Iain Wright.
Most of the rebels are either women or veteran male MPs like Dennis Skinner, Jeremy Corbyn, Paul Flynn.
Labour ought to have voted against of course, and highlighted the egregious edge-cases in the legislation which render hardship on the poorest. That's their job.
Oh George, what a masterstroke that budget was.......
At almost 71, he would also be the oldest first-time PM in British history, beating Palmerston's record which has stood since 1855...
Hopefuls must have command of English plus one of 14 other languages: Arabic, Bengali, German, Greek, Hebrew, Hindi, Italian, Polish, Portuguese, Punjabi, Sinhala (Sri Lanka), Spanish, Turkish or Yoruba (Nigeria)."
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/20/police-constables-second-language-metropolitan-pilot-scheme
What's not to like?