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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peak Corbyn?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peak Corbyn?
As noted yesterday, there appears to be the start of the Stop Corbyn campaign, yesterday’s Observer editorial weighed in with “If Jeremy Corbyn is the answer then Labour is asking the wrong question.” The above tweet from Ladbrokes points out Corbyn’s chances are ticking down, perhaps it might be prudent to take the 5/1 on Corbyn finishing last in the Labour leadership …
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If I was a Labourite my concern would be the apparent huge divergence between the activists and the Labour-inclined voters. Before, such as in Blair's day, this didn't matter much because there weren't any credible alternatives, but they now risk a large group of activists peeling off to the Greens, or potentially even the kippers if they continue their move toward left-wing economics.
Labour are in danger of being able to have either their activists, or voter friendly policies, and without activists, those voter friendly policies might not be enough.
That's how much we're fucked.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11742020/New-immigration-figures-prompt-back-door-to-Britain-fears.html
The number of immigrants born outside Europe who came to live in this country after winning EU citizenship elsewhere has tripled in the last decade, a new report has confirmed. Research by Oxford University’s Migration Observatory will raise concerns about non-EU migrants coming to live here “by the back door”.
It showed there are now 264,000 foreigners in Britain who were born outside Europe and then obtained “free movement” rights by living in another European country. After obtaining their citizenship of their adopted EU country, the foreigners then moved here. In 2004 the number stood at just 78,000, meaning there has been a 238 per cent increase in little over a decade.
More than a fifth of the total – 54,000 migrants - came to Britain after first living in Portugal. The second largest group came via Italy, with 36,000, followed by France (33,000), Spain (30,000), Ireland (21,000) and the Netherlands (19,000).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investigations/10699637/EU-citizenship-for-sale-to-non-Europeans-in-Bulgaria-for-as-little-as-150000.html
http://epthinktank.eu/2014/01/15/eu-citizenship-and-residence-permits-for-sale/
Short of the contest being halted or JC withdrawing (in which case I assume the bets will be voided), that's extremely unlikely. The union signups alone should make sure of that. Thousands of activists have been motivated to get involved by JC's message, they're not going to switch to another candidate at the last minute!
Meanwhile the other candidates on offer are uninspiring. Even people who seem like they should be nailed-on Kendall supporters are having second thoughts having seen her in action (see the previous thread), and Burnham & Cooper clearly offer little more than continuity. Will their supporters 'turn out'?
David Milliband, a man who was unable to visit India without needing Mandleson to smooth over and clean up after him, a man who was unable to have the self belief, bravery and conviction to stand up to Brown, even after others resigned, a man who has one of the biggest political questions marks still to answer with the bulky and poisonous sword of Rendition hanging over his head unanswered, indeed a man who has had a long ministerial career but one in which solid long lasting beneficial achievements are remarkable sparse and hard to find.
This man with such stellar achievements against his name (and a banana) is seen as the greatest hope for Labour.
And it is only now that I realise why he is held in such high regard. The quality of the four contestants is dire, if that is the best Labour can provide, then they really are in a mess. I have to say the Tory party are lucky that Ed Balls is absent. He would be be better than any of the candidates by a country mile.
Andy Burnham: 10/11
Yvette Cooper: 7/4
Jeremy Corbyn: 10/1
Liz Kendall: 50/1
So I see marginal value on Andy Burnham at present and substantial value on Yvette Cooper. I've been backing Yvette Cooper accordingly.
As for Portugal what does EU-born migration look like? They've had a very shitty economy so they may just have quite a few people moving to Britain.
Or did they borrow some conspiraloons from the SNP?
As it is there is clearly a divergence, a chasm, between activists and the PLP.
- Portugal has strong connection to India via Goa
- South Africa has strong connection with the Netherlands
- USA/Canada has strong connections to Ireland
It's worth noting that the numbers for top five country of birth are a lot smaller than the numbers for top five country of citizenship. I imagine those coming from France, Italy and Spain are likely to be scattered among various African nationalities.
A quick link starting point, the story of a Moldovan man who managed to easily buy himself Romanian documents. https://euobserver.com/justice/117551 and another link to the same story http://www.journalismfund.eu/workinggrant/buy-your-way-eu-citizenship (these seem respectable journalists rather than just a guy with a blog). Romanian government statistics show 250,000 new citizenships issued since 2007.
5 years of sitting back and saying nothing in the hope HMG would make a mistake now leaves them as the party with nothing to say. Voters don't know what they stand for and until they do Labour's in the wilderness. In a multi party UK "not the Tories" is no longer enough.
@TelePolitics: SNP 'laying groundwork' for second referendum http://t.co/SjoR7cRRT6
" I was impressed by her knowledge and warm approach"
"Labour MP Daniel Zeichner has thrown his support behind Yvette Cooper to be the next leader of the Labour Party.
Labour MPs nominate their preferred candidate and then those with 35 nominations or more, are voted on by party members and supporters.
He said: “I believe this is an historic opportunity for the Labour Party to choose a woman leader – and it’s a chance I want to seize.
I have previously taken Yvette to meet representatives from the Cambridge Women’s Resource Centre, to meet officers at Parkside Police Station and to talk to low paid Cambridge workers struggling to get by – on each of these occasions I was impressed by her knowledge and warm approach.
At the Parliamentary Labour Party hustings on Monday, Yvette’s experience and gravitas shone out. I know she will be able to stand up to Cameron at the dispatch box week in, week out."
I'd put in 45p for a work related bank run or some such.
If so, how would that change the dynamic of the race?
http://www.lizforleader.com
That of course allows her detractors to paint onto her whatever they want - in this turbocharged Blairism Mark II, or Tory lite. Neither of which is fair.
1) Corbyn 34 Burnham 24 Kendall 22 Cooper 20
(redistribute moderates and lovers of lady leaders)
2) Corbyn 35 Burnham 32 Kendall 33
(redistribute non-trots)
3) Corbyn 40 Kendall 60
Look at Brown's cabinet and 'where are they now'
Gordon Brown MP
Harriet Harman QC MP
Lord Mandelson PC
Alistair Darling MP
David Miliband MP
Jack Straw MP
Alan Johnson MP
Hilary Benn MP
Douglas Alexander MP
John Denham MP
Ed Balls MP
Ed Miliband MP
Andy Burnham MP
Jim Murphy MP
Yvette Cooper MP
Liam Byrne MP
Peter Hain MP
Burnham and Cooper are pretty much the only ones left. All of the others are either no longer MPs, or well past the stage they would want it (In Harman's and Johnsons case).
He still has a great deal of the centre left who see him as the credible centre left candidate, but I think if he does not oppose this those supporters will think they may as well vote corbyn to show their dissatisfaction.
I wouldn't be so sure the peak corbyn has passed.
I am voting against the government on the welfare bill tonight because I believe it will increase child poverty.
We should be proud of the fact the last Labour government took 800,000 children out of poverty – but the approach of this bill goes in the opposite direction. We cannot stay neutral on that.
We introduced tax credits to fill the gap between wages and the cost of living. Osborne’s proposals do nothing to close that gap, whilst taking away the vital lifeline tax credits provided.
Note the 'cannot stay neutral' part.
Corbyn is right. Not on the actual policy, but actually having a position on it.
FPT: Mr, Sandpit, that's an excellent question. Unsure of Ladbrokes, Betfair clarifies it must be a physical safety car. The VSC provision must decrease even more the chances of a real one appearing.
FPT: Mr. Antifrank, cheers.
"Blairites" can win Labour elections, but there's two conditions they have to pass:
(a) Even if some compromises are necessary, there has to be some red lines which aren't crossed. Supporting welfare cuts is one of those red lines.
(b) You have to convince that the Blairite candidate is an outstandingly talented and charismatic politician, so that the compromises are worthwhile in that atleast an election win will be guaranteed.
Blair himself passed both those conditions when he ran, as did to some extent David Miliband. Kendall has failed both dismally.
But it looks silly, and they know that this stuff gets published so why not just delete lines from the claim form that will invite ridicule. These are supposedly intelligent people, don't they understand how this looks to the public?
The world has moved on. The challenge for all parties in many countries is how to do more or how to cope with less.
This is actually shorthand for "I spent the last 5 years saying it would go up, and it didn't, so what do I know?"
She knows what she wants to say but is afraid to say not. Defenestration is a powerful disincentive.
There was an interview with Charlie after Monaco where he said that they intended to clear the accident at Ste. Devote with the VSC as there were cranes on site and lots of brooms. The only reason they called the actual SC was because the driver (Verstappen) did not immediately extricate himself and the first responders called for the medical car, the two vehicles always being deployed together.
I took that to mean that from now on they will always call the VSC except for when there's a pile of debris on the track or an injured driver - and that the more they all get used to the new system the more likely they are for the VSC rather than the SC to be used.
Apologies to everyone else for going way off topic!!
They could pay for it by cutting back on some of the pork for pensioners. Starting with the triple lock.
Smith - benefited from groundwork by Kinnock, I think there is an element of enlarging his reputation as a result of his mortality.
Blair - Was a good leader to win elections. I wonder how he would have got on without Mandleson and Campbell?
Brown - He had qualities no successful leaders needs or has, in abundance.
Major - Probably the best leader in this list, he achieved most when things were set against him
Hague - Too young and unable to connect, which isn't helpful for a leader
IDS - is recognised as leader that couldn't lead
Howard - on a par with Smith, steady, hold a line, keep her steady.
Cameron - wait and see.
Blair had charm and charisma to win him three elections, Major had guts and determination to win him '92 and his second leadership election.
I mocked him at the time, to my eternal shame. I think Thatcherites like Tebbit, Portillo and Redwood in hindsight may also have one or two regrets.
Unlike at least one of those, Major remains a loyal Conservative and loyal to his leader today. Willing to help make the case and serve where needed.
But that doesn't mean she'll pick up the crown post 2018 if it becomes available again.
Welcome @reverend_cat
The Tories are in a jolly good mood indeed as they head into the summer recess, not just because they are in government, but also because Labour is doing everything that they hoped it would to make it easier for them to pass controversial legislation and occupy the centre ground.
One jubilant MP jokes that ‘we could strap babies to foxes and then tie them up with badgers, shoot them, and Labour wouldn’t know how to oppose it.'
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/07/tory-mps-congratulate-lynton-crosby-on-his-election-success/
Well. They elected Miliband last time. But I still find it hard to believe Labour will be quite as bad this term as they were last.
I've been following some of the postings here, been some good insights.
Me? I backed £100 on Jeremy at 250/1 so have a very large pot to play about with.
Covered my position at "peak corbyn" so every outcome is clear of loss for me.
Still sitting on large profit for Corbyn which I want to partly cash out at some point, but I am sitting with interest at this welfare bill, it'll be interesting to see how the factions in labour move now.