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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes phone poll sees UKIP dropping 3 and LAB extendin

SystemSystem Posts: 12,183
edited June 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes phone poll sees UKIP dropping 3 and LAB extending lead to 6

Amid an intense political debate over whether pensioners’ benefits such as the winter fuel allowance should be maintained, the general public agrees by a margin of 49% to 46% that pensioners should “be no more immune to the impact of government spending cuts than other members of society.”

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    UKIP on the slide ! Bad news for democracy !!!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    The question is where UKIP'll end up at teh end of it all. They'll have another roll of the dice in the Euros, no doubt.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    shouldn't that be sleazy, broken UKIP on the slide ?


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962
    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Tory/UKIP 44%
    Labour 36%
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Tory/UKIP 44%
    Labour 36%

    Reactionaries 44%
    Progressives 46%

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    The protesters' caravan moves on to a new temporary campsite.

    It will be all change again when the summer starts to decline.

    Not looking good for the two Eds.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962
    surbiton said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Tory/UKIP 44%
    Labour 36%

    Reactionaries 44%
    Progressives 46%

    ConDems 40%
    Labour 36%
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    surbiton said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Tory/UKIP 44%
    Labour 36%

    Reactionaries 44%
    Progressives 46%

    ConDems 40%
    Labour 36%
    Labour 36
    Tories 30
  • terrytoryterrytory Posts: 4
    Off topic, I know, but this is the first chance I have had to comment on Dianne Abbot's actions in the house this afternoon. Sitting immediately behind Yvette Cooper, she spent the whole of the Shadow Home Secretary's statement in response to Theresa May paying no attention whatever to her front bench spokesman, rather she spent practically the whole time composing messages on her tablet. Bearing in mind the subject under discussion, one would have thought she would have at least tried to show an interest in what her own shadow minister had to say.

    Unfortunately, I cannot comment on whether the tweeting went on during Theresa May's statement, since I was watching on the Parliament Channel, where the camera was focussed on the speaker.

    Anyone else notice?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962
    Bobajob said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    surbiton said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Tory/UKIP 44%
    Labour 36%

    Reactionaries 44%
    Progressives 46%

    ConDems 40%
    Labour 36%
    Labour 36
    Tories 30
    Government 40%
    Labour 36%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    Easy to overinterpret these movements, but I think we'd all have predicted that the UKIP surge would be settling in the absence of major new impulses. I suspect that the shrinkage is mostly going back to "probably won't vote".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    UKIP -3 Lab +2

    UKIP not a threat to Lab.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    So what?
    terrytory said:

    Off topic, I know, but this is the first chance I have had to comment on Dianne Abbot's actions in the house this afternoon. Sitting immediately behind Yvette Cooper, she spent the whole of the Shadow Home Secretary's statement in response to Theresa May paying no attention whatever to her front bench spokesman, rather she spent practically the whole time composing messages on her tablet. Bearing in mind the subject under discussion, one would have thought she would have at least tried to show an interest in what her own shadow minister had to say.

    Unfortunately, I cannot comment on whether the tweeting went on during Theresa May's statement, since I was watching on the Parliament Channel, where the camera was focussed on the speaker.

    Anyone else notice?

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AveryLP said:



    Not looking good for the two Eds.

    In what way?

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Labour's lead over the Conservatives has not gone up (virtually unchanged at 8 or 9 points), so despite things it looks like UKIP draw from (and donate to) both parties.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    Labour increase lead by two percentage points "Not looking good for the two Eds."....strange eh!
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    terrytory said:

    Off topic, I know, but this is the first chance I have had to comment on Dianne Abbot's actions in the house this afternoon. Sitting immediately behind Yvette Cooper, she spent the whole of the Shadow Home Secretary's statement in response to Theresa May paying no attention whatever to her front bench spokesman, rather she spent practically the whole time composing messages on her tablet. Bearing in mind the subject under discussion, one would have thought she would have at least tried to show an interest in what her own shadow minister had to say.

    Unfortunately, I cannot comment on whether the tweeting went on during Theresa May's statement, since I was watching on the Parliament Channel, where the camera was focussed on the speaker.

    Anyone else notice?

    No.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    CarlottaVance said:

    UKIP -3 Lab +2

    UKIP not a threat to Lab.

    Do you grasp the meaning of the word 'threat' Carlotta?

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    CarlottaVance said:

    UKIP -3 Lab +2

    UKIP not a threat to Lab.

    Wanna bet? UKIP are standing in all the by-elections below, except Newark & Sherwood. It should be an interesting Thursday night in that we will see if UKIP voters keep on turning out in respectable numbers. I think they will give a truer picture of where UKIP stands this week.

    8 COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS 27th JUNE 2013

    WORCESTERSHIRE - STOURPORT ON SEVERN

    SOUTH TYNESIDE - PRIMROSE

    SOUTH TYNESIDE - CLEADON & EAST BOLDON

    RUTLAND - KETTON

    PLYMOUTH - SOUTHWAY

    NEWARK & SHERWOOD - FARNSFIELD & BILSTHORPE

    DARTFORD = NEWTOWN

    BASILDON - BILLERICAY EAST
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Bobajob said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    surbiton said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Tory/UKIP 44%
    Labour 36%

    Reactionaries 44%
    Progressives 46%

    ConDems 40%
    Labour 36%
    Labour 36
    Tories 30
    Government 40%
    Labour 36%
    Kippers 14
    Goats 86

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962
    Sensible Parties 64%
    Silly Party 36%

    :)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @MikeK One of the seats you refer to, STOURPORT ON SEVERN on Worcs CC was won by UKIP just seven weeks ago.

    The winning candidate has now resigned. That doesn't show great commitment.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    edited June 2013
    Swivel eyed fruitcake loons 14%
    Loons 30%
    Next government 36%

    ;-)
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sensible Parties 64%
    Silly Party 36%

    :)

    Cameroons 15
    Frothy-mouthed capital punishment fans 15
    United party 36

  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    MikeSmithson Posts:
    10:41PM
    @MikeK One of the seats you refer to, STOURPORT ON SEVERN on Worcs CC was won by UKIP just seven weeks ago.

    The winning candidate has now resigned. That doesn't show great commitment.

    I think we will see much more of this.I think the majority of UKIP candidates who won didn't expect to win and they are just finding out now that being a councilor is a real challenge and needs a lot of commitment and patience, its not just about winning, its about representing your constituents.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MikeSmithson said:

    @MikeK One of the seats you refer to, STOURPORT ON SEVERN on Worcs CC was won by UKIP just seven weeks ago.

    The winning candidate has now resigned. That doesn't show great commitment.

    Thats true in this case MIke. From what I understand, the poor guy took fright at what the job entailed. He said that it was too much for him. UKIP have to tighten selection proceedures up. Can't win them all.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MikeSmithson said:

    @MikeK One of the seats you refer to, STOURPORT ON SEVERN on Worcs CC was won by UKIP just seven weeks ago.

    The winning candidate has now resigned. That doesn't show great commitment.

    Lack of judgement rather than commitment:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1091098/ukip-councillor-eric-kitson-resigns
  • terrytoryterrytory Posts: 4
    Mike says "So what?"
    This was an emergency statement concerning allegations that the Met Police had conspired to rubbish the Lawrence Family following the murder of Stephen.
    I may be too sensitive, but Abbot's attitude seemed to be completely lacking in respect, and I was amazed that Dianne Abbot, of all people, should show such crass disinterest.
    It looked very bad.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    edited June 2013
    If a two percent increase in the Labour lead is described as "Not looking good for the two Eds.", would a three percent increase in the lead be "A total disaster for the two Eds" and a four percent increase in the Labour lead be described as "Apoloclyptic for two Eds"?
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    terrytory said:

    Off topic, I know, but this is the first chance I have had to comment on Dianne Abbot's actions in the house this afternoon. Sitting immediately behind Yvette Cooper, she spent the whole of the Shadow Home Secretary's statement in response to Theresa May paying no attention whatever to her front bench spokesman, rather she spent practically the whole time composing messages on her tablet. Bearing in mind the subject under discussion, one would have thought she would have at least tried to show an interest in what her own shadow minister had to say.

    Unfortunately, I cannot comment on whether the tweeting went on during Theresa May's statement, since I was watching on the Parliament Channel, where the camera was focussed on the speaker.

    Anyone else notice?

    Nope.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    MikeSmithson said:


    AveryLP said:



    Not looking good for the two Eds.

    In what way?

    Look at it this way, Mike.

    You are running a reputable park of mobile homes in a coastal town. You cater round the year to hard working families. You seek to emulate the more up market hotels, B&Bs and big brand holiday centres, by keeping everything neat and tidy with a new lick of paint each year.

    In rolls a couple of caravans who park on your carefully manicured lawn. The occupiers demand to know why you haven't got a putting green then spend hours in the bar pointing out how seaside holidays have gone to dogs since the 1950s. They order plain english cooking from the bar menu and return a hamburger and chips because it has a salad of rocket covered in mayonnaise.

    As the night progresses they start singing "patriotic songs" substituting words of their own making which insult your longest standing residents. When these residents approach you for a quiet word you are barracked with chants of "sent them back to their own country". The party continues to three in the morning.

    The following day six of your best resident families announce they are leaving to cries of "good riddance". After another bout of singing in the bar, the two caravan families decide to leave too in search of a "decent place with a proper golf course".

    That in a nutshell is why this poll is bad for the two Eds.

  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Con 30
    Lab 36

    Lab Maj 74

    ;)
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    @Avery

    Are you overworked at the moment?

    Some rest might be in order.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    RedRag1 said:

    If a two percent increase in the Labour lead is described as "Not looking good for the two Eds.", would a three percent increase in the lead be "A total disaster for the two Eds" and a four percent increase in the Labour lead be described as "Apoloclyptic for two Eds"?

    You are Dan Hodges and I claim my PB.com chequebook and pen ;-)
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Shame - it's more fun when the political class are panicking. Hopefully the local elections will stay around 20-25%.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    RedRag1 said:

    Swivel eyed fruitcake loons 14%
    Loons 30%
    Next government 36%

    ;-)

    Some posh lads who run the country, but who aren't very good- 30%
    Some other posh lads who want to run the country, but also aren't very good- 36%.

    Some choice.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,627
    OT. Just heard that Professor Mick Aston of Time Team has died aged 66. He transformed Archaeology in Britain and was also a genuinely nice bloke who always had time for everyone on site whether they were crew, diggers or just passing interested public.

    RIP Mick and thanks.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:


    AveryLP said:



    Not looking good for the two Eds.

    In what way?

    Look at it this way, Mike.

    You are running a reputable park of mobile homes in a coastal town. You cater round the year to hard working families. You seek to emulate the more up market hotels, B&Bs and big brand holiday centres, by keeping everything neat and tidy with a new lick of paint each year.

    In rolls a couple of caravans who park on your carefully manicured lawn. The occupiers demand to know why you haven't got a putting green then spend hours in the bar pointing out how seaside holidays have gone to dogs since the 1950s. They order plain english cooking from the bar menu and return a hamburger and chips because it has a salad of rocket covered in mayonnaise.

    As the night progresses they start singing "patriotic songs" substituting words of their own making which insult your longest standing residents. When these residents approach you for a quiet word you are barracked with chants of "sent them back to their own country". The party continues to three in the morning.

    The following day six of your best resident families announce they are leaving to cries of "good riddance". After another bout of singing in the bar, the two caravan families decide to leave too in search of a "decent place with a proper golf course".

    That in a nutshell is why this poll is bad for the two Eds.

    If that's a nutshell, what does a whole tree look like?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    ComRes/Kelly Kronikle

    Progressives 8%
    Centre-Right Consensus 76%
    "Was Hitler All Bad?" 15%
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    NickPalmer said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:


    AveryLP said:



    Not looking good for the two Eds.

    In what way?

    Look at it this way, Mike.

    You are running a reputable park of mobile homes in a coastal town. You cater round the year to hard working families. You seek to emulate the more up market hotels, B&Bs and big brand holiday centres, by keeping everything neat and tidy with a new lick of paint each year.

    In rolls a couple of caravans who park on your carefully manicured lawn. The occupiers demand to know why you haven't got a putting green then spend hours in the bar pointing out how seaside holidays have gone to dogs since the 1950s. They order plain english cooking from the bar menu and return a hamburger and chips because it has a salad of rocket covered in mayonnaise.

    As the night progresses they start singing "patriotic songs" substituting words of their own making which insult your longest standing residents. When these residents approach you for a quiet word you are barracked with chants of "sent them back to their own country". The party continues to three in the morning.

    The following day six of your best resident families announce they are leaving to cries of "good riddance". After another bout of singing in the bar, the two caravan families decide to leave too in search of a "decent place with a proper golf course".

    That in a nutshell is why this poll is bad for the two Eds.

    If that's a nutshell, what does a whole tree look like?
    Like this, Nick.

    image
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Are you trying to suggest that Kippers moving to Labour will scare moderates away to somewhere like the LDs ?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited June 2013
    "Like this, Nick."

    Is that a tree? I always thought it was the Irish rugby team being hit by a tsunami.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    asjohnstone said:

    Are you trying to suggest that Kippers moving to Labour will scare moderates away to somewhere like the LDs ?

    The Yellowbrick Road Holiday Park doesn't admit caravans and its restaurant serves wholesome and nutritional meals.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    That's a scary picture before we go to bed, Avery!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JamesKelly said:

    "Like this, Nick."

    Is that a tree? I always thought it was the Irish rugby team being hit by a tsunami.

    We have never questioned your imaginative flights of fantasy, James.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    NickPalmer said:

    That's a scary picture before we go to bed, Avery!

    Don't worry Nick, James's tsunami has shaken all the nuts out.

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Various people wrote:

    Tory/UKIP 44%
    Labour 36%
    Reactionaries 44%
    Progressives 46%
    ConDems 40%
    Labour 36%
    Labour 36%
    Tories 30%
    Kippers 14%
    Goats 86%
    Sensible Parties 64%
    Silly Party 36%
    Swivel eyed fruitcake loons 14%
    Loons 30%
    Next government 36%
    Cameroons 15%
    Frothy-mouthed capital punishment fans 15%
    United party 36%
    Progressives 8%
    Centre-Right Consensus 76%
    "Was Hitler All Bad?" 15%

    ... all of which reminds me of the political parties in India, as described in "The Nehrus & The Gandhis: An Indian Dynasty" by Tariq Ali, which I have just read.

    The Congress Party is approximately the equivalent of the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem parties, all rolled into one: a self-perpetuating national unity coalition party, which started life as a national liberation movement but, after independence, has turned into a faction-riddled ragbag of careerists and opportunists. After being in government for decades, corruption and abuses of power become all-pervasive, and the Opposition Parties are desperate to form an electoral pact in order to get rid of the Congress Party.

    But who are the Opposition Parties? The main ones are the two Communist Parties (on the left), and a Hindu supremacist / nationalist party on the right, plus a scattering of independents and small local parties.

    It would be like having a combined ConLabLibDem Party in power for 30 years, only to be ousted by an electoral coalition comprising the BNP, UKIP, Respect, George Galloway and Plaid Cymru - who have nothing in common with each other except opposition to the ConLabLibDem. It only takes a few years before the voters realise their mistake and re-elect CoLabLibDem again.

    That, in a nutshell, is what Indian electoral politics have been like for the last 60 years.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    In COMRES weighted sample 52% voted in 2010 whereas turnout was 65%
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 24th June - CON 32%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -34 - See more at: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/06/25/update-labour-lead-7/#sthash.fvsUbjfB.dpuf
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    And who do you think is most to blame for the
    current spending cuts?

    The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: 24(0)
    Last Labour Government: 37(+2)
    Both: 27 (-2)
    Neither: 5(+1)
    DK: 7(-2)

  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    JohnLoony said:

    Various people wrote:

    Tory/UKIP 44%
    Labour 36%
    Reactionaries 44%
    Progressives 46%
    ConDems 40%
    Labour 36%
    Labour 36%
    Tories 30%
    Kippers 14%
    Goats 86%
    Sensible Parties 64%
    Silly Party 36%
    Swivel eyed fruitcake loons 14%
    Loons 30%
    Next government 36%
    Cameroons 15%
    Frothy-mouthed capital punishment fans 15%
    United party 36%
    Progressives 8%
    Centre-Right Consensus 76%
    "Was Hitler All Bad?" 15%

    ... all of which reminds me of the political parties in India, as described in "The Nehrus & The Gandhis: An Indian Dynasty" by Tariq Ali, which I have just read.

    The Congress Party is approximately the equivalent of the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem parties, all rolled into one: a self-perpetuating national unity coalition party, which started life as a national liberation movement but, after independence, has turned into a faction-riddled ragbag of careerists and opportunists. After being in government for decades, corruption and abuses of power become all-pervasive, and the Opposition Parties are desperate to form an electoral pact in order to get rid of the Congress Party.

    But who are the Opposition Parties? The main ones are the two Communist Parties (on the left), and a Hindu supremacist / nationalist party on the right, plus a scattering of independents and small local parties.

    It would be like having a combined ConLabLibDem Party in power for 30 years, only to be ousted by an electoral coalition comprising the BNP, UKIP, Respect, George Galloway and Plaid Cymru - who have nothing in common with each other except opposition to the ConLabLibDem. It only takes a few years before the voters realise their mistake and re-elect CoLabLibDem again.

    That, in a nutshell, is what Indian electoral politics have been like for the last 60 years.

    This is a very clever comment John, and may not be far off the mark.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    The YouGov entrails show only MOE shifts, but the economy ones are mildly interesting - generally slightly more people think the cuts are necessary (now 69-27) but also slightly more thinking they are being done unfairly (now 58-27). So possibly the Eds are on to something with the line that they will take the cuts as a starting point but will do them more fairly (plays into the consistent "more in touch with people like you" polling lead).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    NickPalmer said:

    So possibly the Eds are on to something

    The voters may also be onto the two Eds

    Who do you think is most to blame for the cuts:
    Coalition : 24 (-)
    Labour: 37 (+2)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2013
    We will know Ed is serious when he bans the import of sardines. Tough decision for Ed but he has the metal for it.
  • beastinblackbeastinblack Posts: 13
    Recent byelections

    Watlington ward of the Borough Council of King's Lynn

    UKIP: 45.5%

    Weaste and Seedley, 2013

    UKIP: 22.2%

    Bletchley and Fenny Stratford

    UKIP: 25.2%

    All within the last week or two. Polls are unreliable. Stick to the real world.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,962
    beastinblack said:

    Recent byelections

    Watlington ward of the Borough Council of King's Lynn

    UKIP: 45.5%

    Weaste and Seedley, 2013

    UKIP: 22.2%

    Bletchley and Fenny Stratford

    UKIP: 25.2%

    All within the last week or two. Polls are unreliable. Stick to the real world.

    Welcome to PB.

    How many by-elections have there been during that period, and how cherry-picked are those results? (answer: very)

    Take Kirklees on the same day as Watlington: UKIP did not even have a candidate. Does that real-world case indicate that they have no support there?

    UKIP has sprung up from a low base in the polls; they are now declining again. It'll be interesting to see what their true level of support is, especially with the Euro elections next year to queer things.
  • theodoxiatheodoxia Posts: 5
    SquareRoot said:

    We will know Ed is serious when he bans the import of sardines. Tough decision for Ed but he has the metal for it.

    I think you may mean mettle, unless I'm missing a subtle pun on the theme of sardine tins.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Who is to blame for the cuts? 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013

    Coalition: 20 / 25 / 26 / 27
    Labour: 46 / 39 / 36 / 36

    Crossover ~ 2022.....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Beyond a certain tipping point fresh UKIP gains in support hurt Labour more than the Conservatives.

    Thus the hate campaign the Cameroons are attempting to launch against UKIP is likely merely to send this branch of UKIP voters back to Labour.

    The Cameroons have really got the Conservatives into a strategic two front war.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    @theodoxia

    I blame autocorrect.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Drifty drift drift...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    TwistedFireStopper said:

    RedRag1 said:

    Swivel eyed fruitcake loons 14%
    Loons 30%
    Next government 36%

    ;-)

    Some posh lads who run the country, but who aren't very good- 30%
    Some other posh lads who want to run the country, but also aren't very good- 36%.

    Some choice.

    Sums it up very well.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,936
    I notice that in the latest Yougov Labour has an alarming deficit of -3 for women compared with men. The tories are more in balance with a difference of -1.

    I am concerned that an essential driver of traffic on this site is in danger of fading away here. What can be done?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:


    AveryLP said:



    Not looking good for the two Eds.

    In what way?

    Look at it this way, Mike.

    You are running a reputable park of mobile homes in a coastal town. You cater round the year to hard working families. You seek to emulate the more up market hotels, B&Bs and big brand holiday centres, by keeping everything neat and tidy with a new lick of paint each year.

    In rolls a couple of caravans who park on your carefully manicured lawn. The occupiers demand to know why you haven't got a putting green then spend hours in the bar pointing out how seaside holidays have gone to dogs since the 1950s. They order plain english cooking from the bar menu and return a hamburger and chips because it has a salad of rocket covered in mayonnaise.

    As the night progresses they start singing "patriotic songs" substituting words of their own making which insult your longest standing residents. When these residents approach you for a quiet word you are barracked with chants of "sent them back to their own country". The party continues to three in the morning.

    The following day six of your best resident families announce they are leaving to cries of "good riddance". After another bout of singing in the bar, the two caravan families decide to leave too in search of a "decent place with a proper golf course".

    That in a nutshell is why this poll is bad for the two Eds.

    Nice analogy. But more apposite for the Tories.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    It is difficult to see these polls as other than a judgement on the coalition. I have an uncomfortable feeling the judgements on Labour are yet to be made.

    Maybe I'm being pessimistic but two years out from 1997 Blair was the Messiah facing a demoralized Tory rump. I'm not getting a sense of that from Ed and can't see that he has it in him.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Financier said:

    YouGov

    And who do you think is most to blame for the
    current spending cuts?

    The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: 24(0)
    Last Labour Government: 37(+2)
    Both: 27 (-2)
    Neither: 5(+1)
    DK: 7(-2)

    Interesting. It's probably MOE, but is it possible that EdM/EdB accepting the need for cuts has led people to think that they must/should have known they were making a mistake at the time?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    'Beast in Black' is a good name for a UKIPer

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02219/blackshirts_2219047b.jpg
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,557
    Financier said:

    In COMRES weighted sample 52% voted in 2010 whereas turnout was 65%

    Voters who were too young to vote in 2010 would account for some, but not all of that. I noticed that 32% of Green voters claimed not to have voted in 2010, for example.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Good morning, everyone.

    Here's the early discussion thread for Britain: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/britain-early-discussion.html
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    Roger said:

    'Beast in Black' is a good name for a UKIPer

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02219/blackshirts_2219047b.jpg

    Roger, looking at all that leather is this one you flashed coming out of a gay bar in Soho ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Keep an eye on the bond markets.
    This is the most stupid time possible for Osborne to be trying to use taxpayers money to stoke a housing bubble at 0.5% interest rates.
    OK it helps wealthy pensioners as ever, but it won't look too clever when interest rates rise.

    Just to be clear, wealthy pensioners are the ones that have suffered among the most over the last five years. It's been extremely difficult to generate a reasonable income off a fixed capital base.

    Bond market moves are driven by the realisation that the punch bowl will be taken away (it's been a helluva party - thanks Greenspan for ballsing it up for everyone). However, mortgage interest rates (unless you have a legacy deal which is rolling off) are set of market rates (usually 3-4%) vs BoE base rate so the impact will be much less marked than you are suggesting.

    The interesting data I've asked the team to look into is the implications of the ongoing roll-off of fixed rates / teaser deals over the next couple of years. It's that sub-set which is where the pressure would be.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,936
    tim said:

    @DavidL


    You know what the briefings about a £2.88 per week married couples tax break means don't you.

    That the tories want to do even better amongst women than they are already?

    That they want to do something that their supporters will actually like for a change?

    That by the autumn statement Osborne thinks he will be able to cut borrowing and cut taxes?

    There are a few options here.

    But why are Labour now so unpopular with women?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    tim said:

    @DavidL


    You know what the briefings about a £2.88 per week married couples tax break means don't you.

    That the tories want to do even better amongst women than they are already?

    That they want to do something that their supporters will actually like for a change?

    That by the autumn statement Osborne thinks he will be able to cut borrowing and cut taxes?

    There are a few options here.

    But why are Labour now so unpopular with women?

    Don't forget that it's limited to basic rate taxpayers.

    Tories helping normal married people, ignoring the rich shocker
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Labour voters less convinced on squeeze of pensioners than others (net agree) :

    "Pensioners should be no more immune to the impact of Government spending cuts than other members of society"

    Con: +14
    Lab: -2
    LibD: +6
    UKIP: -

    Brave of the two Eds to lead the charge....

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll.pdf
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    @tim

    Are you jealous of Dave's date nights? You post an awful lot about them. Perhaps you should try one, it might make you a little less negative.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Financier said:

    In COMRES weighted sample 52% voted in 2010 whereas turnout was 65%

    Voters who were too young to vote in 2010 would account for some, but not all of that. I noticed that 32% of Green voters claimed not to have voted in 2010, for example.

    I'd guess that 32% of people who'd like to vote Green didn't have a Green candidate last time (and probably won't have one next time either).

    But the likely behaviour of non-voters in 2010 would be worth a poll and/or a thread. They are a mixed bunch - there was a "Labour but not Gordon" group, a "plague on all of you/politics shmolitics" group and of course the usual "oops I'm on holiday" group. Labour has recovered some of the first group and UKIP has some of the second, and both these cohorts now seem quite keen. The question (which affects what we think of ICM/Populus assumptions) is whether they'll slump back onto the sofa when the election comes round.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Roger said:

    It is difficult to see these polls as other than a judgement on the coalition. I have an uncomfortable feeling the judgements on Labour are yet to be made.

    Maybe I'm being pessimistic but two years out from 1997 Blair was the Messiah facing a demoralized Tory rump. I'm not getting a sense of that from Ed and can't see that he has it in him.

    The Eds have been judged and found wanting ie they will not 'seal the deal'.

    Just as the Cameroons were judged and found wanting ie they did not 'seal the deal'.

    So what we get in 2015 is another weak government, this time probably of the Eds.

    Whoever it is though will have no answers to Britain's decline, the growing inequality, the effects of globalisation etc.

    To an extent this is because there really aren't any good answers. But even if there were neither the Cameroons or the Eds would be able or willing to implement them.

    By 2020 Britain's problems will have reached crisis point and seen to be so resulting in a very angry country.


  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2013
    OT Following the untimely death of James Gandolphini - just been watching The Sopranos - what a totally awesome show.

    After seeing so much mediocre nonsense packed with characters I haven't given give a toss about - this is gripping and engaging from the get-go.

    If you haven't watched it - you're missing a treat.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "“One officer asked me to write out my name on the back of my bingo card. He put that and the pen in a plastic bag, sealed it up and took it away as evidence.” He said the police confiscated the biscuits — but he managed to hide the chocolate.
    Gerald went on: “I shared that round on a bus on the way to the station. Some people didn’t want any because they were worried about eating the evidence.”


    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4980902/Clickety-nicked.html#ixzz2XD96RzL3
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,936
    edited June 2013
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    tim said:

    @DavidL


    You know what the briefings about a £2.88 per week married couples tax break means don't you.

    That the tories want to do even better amongst women than they are already?

    That they want to do something that their supporters will actually like for a change?

    That by the autumn statement Osborne thinks he will be able to cut borrowing and cut taxes?

    There are a few options here.

    But why are Labour now so unpopular with women?

    Don't forget that it's limited to basic rate taxpayers.

    Tories helping normal married people, ignoring the rich shocker
    The problem is Charles that with Labour now simply agreeing with everything that George has ever said or done it gets ever harder to have dividing lines that the majority of the population can relate to.

    When George tells Labour what their spending policies are this week we may still have to find some different priorities to differentiate the parties.

    Thankfully, as Tim has in fairness always told us, George is a master strategist.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2013
    DavidL said:



    "When George tells Labour what their spending policies are this week....

    LOL

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "There has been an almost pathological refusal to accept the evidence of malpractice as it has piled up over the years, even when it has been as stark and unambiguous as a mound of corpses (whether in the Mid Staffs mortuary, or at the Hillsborough football stadium). Those on the left have been particularly wilful in dismissing the very idea of callous misconduct within the NHS: the nationalised health service monopoly, free at the point of use, represents their ideal of the best of Britain, and any denigration of it therefore an act of malevolent political subversion."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/from-the-nhs-to-the-police-public-servants-are-putting-their-own-interests-first-8671134.html
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    Golly. This Hogan-Howe looks like a safe pair of hands. ;^ )
    Policy Press ‏@policypress 28m

    Met head Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe 'shocked' by allegations of smear campaign against Lawrence family: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/met-head-sir-bernard-hoganhowe-shocked-by-allegations-of-smear-campaign-against-lawrence-family-8672102.html … via @Independent


    LBC 97.3 ‏@lbc973 30m

    Hogan-Howe admits he hasn't seen the TV documentary about the Met Police undercover scandal http://www.lbc.co.uk/watch-met-police-chief-live-on-lbc---from-8am-74073 …

    Danny Shaw ‏@DannyShawBBC 17m

    Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe admits row over undercover ops is a "distraction" for Met: crime is falling, public satisfaction levels @ 80 percent


    Amber Elliott ‏@AmberElliottSky 16m

    Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe tells @lbc973 that driving on mobile phone should result in 6 points on your licence. Has written to ministers on it

    Hollie Clemence ‏@hollieclemence 8m

    Bernard Hogan-Howe considering outsourcing officer recruitment for the Met to increase diversity


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,936
    tim said:

    @DavidL

    A master strategist who is spending more than Labour did.
    Didnt see that coming did you?

    Actually I did but for the wrong reasons because I thought unemployment would be much higher than it is now. I underestimated him.

    What I know for certain is that spending is substantially less than it would have been under Labour, whatever they now claim about financial discipline. Still more rejoicing in heaven etc...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    F1: sounds like Marussia could suffer financially unless it gets a deal sorted with the owners of F1:
    http://www.espn.co.uk/marussia/motorsport/story/112333.html
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    tim said:

    @DavidL

    A master strategist who is spending more than Labour did.
    Didnt see that coming did you?

    Shouldn't you be happy, Labour loves spending; or is it that now he's doing all that spending Labour has run out of ideas ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sadly I've just heard the news of the death of Prof Mick Aston of "Time Team" fame.

    Wonderful British eccentric, inspiring academic and a TV natural.

    RIP .... until "Time Team AD2500" dig you up !!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,936
    @Mick_Pork

    Going on a radio phone in without having watched the program seems....optimistic, possibly even a tad eccentric.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    JackW said:



    RIP .... until "Time Team AD2500" dig you up !!

    Surely the greatest accolade for an archaeologist would be to be dug up in a thousand years time! :^ )
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    DavidL said:

    @Mick_Pork

    Going on a radio phone in without having watched the program seems....optimistic, possibly even a tad eccentric.

    To be fair he's not exactly a fan of watching CCTV either. ;^ )


    He'll be watching the programme now because the home affairs select committee for one will be having quite the 'conversation' again with him about this and much else soon enough.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting trend on "the cuts":

    Having an impact on your own life, or not having an impact on your own life? 2013 ytd (vs 2012)
    Having an impact: 56 (-7)
    Not having an impact: 30 (+4)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I feel I can't let another thread go by without asking the burning political elephant question in the room :

    What's the point of Ed Miliband ?

    He leading (titters) a dozy bunch of second raters that mid term are struggling to muster a decent lead in the polls whilst giving the impression that there is no policy that'll not be subject to a U turn and despite the Coalition implementing economic policies about as popular as clinic full of STD's.

    I suppose the nation is stuck with this comical figure until June 2015 .... well at least Ed provides a few laughs along the way.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Alanbrooke said:

    tim said:

    @DavidL

    A master strategist who is spending more than Labour did.
    Didnt see that coming did you?

    Shouldn't you be happy, Labour loves spending; or is it that now he's doing all that spending Labour has run out of ideas ?
    What's wrong with spending? You do realise without spending there'd be no economy, right?

    The puritan Tory fantasy is so far gone they're using the word "spending" as an epithet!
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Tory propaganda in a nutshell:

    @Con_Voice
    ComRes poll for Independent: Labour's lead shrinks to just 6 points >>> http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/24/new-comres-phone-poll-sees-ukip-dropping-3-and-lab-extending-lead-to-6/ … via @MSmithsonPB @PaulGoodmanCH @wallaceme

    Slapped down by Mike.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    JackW said:



    RIP .... until "Time Team AD2500" dig you up !!

    Surely the greatest accolade for an archaeologist would be to be dug up in a thousand years time! :^ )
    Indeed. In a small 3 meter trench with the ancestors of Lord Robinson of Bolsover fronting a live TV show from Earth Moon VII.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Telegraph Politics ‏@TelePolitics 16m

    Plans for a Cameron government without Clegg were drawn up amid fears Vince Cable was plotting a coup http://bit.ly/1cfOC6p

    Telegraph Politics Telegraph Politics ‏@TelePolitics 18m

    Cameron believes he could be PM without Clegg, after a secret analysis of Bills a minority Tory Govt could pass: http://bit.ly/1cfOC6p
    But Clegg is hugely popular and vital to sound governance.
    Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt 32m

    In case you thought it was a slow news day, Nick Clegg is opening a new Sainsbury's distribution centre at 11:20am.
    LOL
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,936
    @JackW

    I did wonder if Labour really had to go back to the sardines to find a tough choice that they had had to make.

    Choosing between David and Ed was a truly tough choice for the party. If I had had a vote I wouldn't have known where to start.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Every time Ed Balls goes in front of the cameras, he's asked if he'll borrow more. Obviously the answer is yes, but clearly he doesn't want to say so - it's become a political no-no.

    From saying borrowing = more tax receipts = good, he's sort of implying that their cuts will be "nice" cuts (as opposed to those the evil Tories have already imposed). This was the mantra that Gordon constantly opposed.

    It might be a winning line, but it will need careful handling during an election campaign. Darling might have managed it (he proposed it in 2010), but the two Eds will struggle after their statements over the last two years.

    I thought the Labour party were keeping their powder dry but maybe they don't have any powder that they dare use?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @BenM

    10/10 for your new avatar. Principally because most normal folk will only be able to read :

    Regulate BenM Now

    Well quite.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    edited June 2013
    I think COMRES is closer to the mark than Yougov. UKIP will bump along at ~14 before gaining another surge at next year's euro elections. Labour's lead will drop and I expect them to lead 2015 GE by ~ 2-3% over the conservatives but it will be enough for a small majority given the current efficiencies and bias they enjoy in the voting system. LD will remain 9-10.
This discussion has been closed.