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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes phone poll sees UKIP dropping 3 and LAB extendin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes phone poll sees UKIP dropping 3 and LAB extending lead to 6
Amid an intense political debate over whether pensioners’ benefits such as the winter fuel allowance should be maintained, the general public agrees by a margin of 49% to 46% that pensioners should “be no more immune to the impact of government spending cuts than other members of society.”
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Tory/UKIP 44%
Labour 36%
Progressives 46%
It will be all change again when the summer starts to decline.
Not looking good for the two Eds.
Labour 36%
Tories 30
Unfortunately, I cannot comment on whether the tweeting went on during Theresa May's statement, since I was watching on the Parliament Channel, where the camera was focussed on the speaker.
Anyone else notice?
Labour 36%
UKIP not a threat to Lab.
8 COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS 27th JUNE 2013
WORCESTERSHIRE - STOURPORT ON SEVERN
SOUTH TYNESIDE - PRIMROSE
SOUTH TYNESIDE - CLEADON & EAST BOLDON
RUTLAND - KETTON
PLYMOUTH - SOUTHWAY
NEWARK & SHERWOOD - FARNSFIELD & BILSTHORPE
DARTFORD = NEWTOWN
BASILDON - BILLERICAY EAST
Goats 86
Silly Party 36%
The winning candidate has now resigned. That doesn't show great commitment.
Loons 30%
Next government 36%
;-)
Frothy-mouthed capital punishment fans 15
United party 36
10:41PM
@MikeK One of the seats you refer to, STOURPORT ON SEVERN on Worcs CC was won by UKIP just seven weeks ago.
The winning candidate has now resigned. That doesn't show great commitment.
I think we will see much more of this.I think the majority of UKIP candidates who won didn't expect to win and they are just finding out now that being a councilor is a real challenge and needs a lot of commitment and patience, its not just about winning, its about representing your constituents.
http://news.sky.com/story/1091098/ukip-councillor-eric-kitson-resigns
This was an emergency statement concerning allegations that the Met Police had conspired to rubbish the Lawrence Family following the murder of Stephen.
I may be too sensitive, but Abbot's attitude seemed to be completely lacking in respect, and I was amazed that Dianne Abbot, of all people, should show such crass disinterest.
It looked very bad.
You are running a reputable park of mobile homes in a coastal town. You cater round the year to hard working families. You seek to emulate the more up market hotels, B&Bs and big brand holiday centres, by keeping everything neat and tidy with a new lick of paint each year.
In rolls a couple of caravans who park on your carefully manicured lawn. The occupiers demand to know why you haven't got a putting green then spend hours in the bar pointing out how seaside holidays have gone to dogs since the 1950s. They order plain english cooking from the bar menu and return a hamburger and chips because it has a salad of rocket covered in mayonnaise.
As the night progresses they start singing "patriotic songs" substituting words of their own making which insult your longest standing residents. When these residents approach you for a quiet word you are barracked with chants of "sent them back to their own country". The party continues to three in the morning.
The following day six of your best resident families announce they are leaving to cries of "good riddance". After another bout of singing in the bar, the two caravan families decide to leave too in search of a "decent place with a proper golf course".
That in a nutshell is why this poll is bad for the two Eds.
Lab 36
Lab Maj 74
Are you overworked at the moment?
Some rest might be in order.
Some other posh lads who want to run the country, but also aren't very good- 36%.
Some choice.
RIP Mick and thanks.
Progressives 8%
Centre-Right Consensus 76%
"Was Hitler All Bad?" 15%
Is that a tree? I always thought it was the Irish rugby team being hit by a tsunami.
Tory/UKIP 44%
Labour 36%
Reactionaries 44%
Progressives 46%
ConDems 40%
Labour 36%
Labour 36%
Tories 30%
Kippers 14%
Goats 86%
Sensible Parties 64%
Silly Party 36%
Swivel eyed fruitcake loons 14%
Loons 30%
Next government 36%
Cameroons 15%
Frothy-mouthed capital punishment fans 15%
United party 36%
Progressives 8%
Centre-Right Consensus 76%
"Was Hitler All Bad?" 15%
... all of which reminds me of the political parties in India, as described in "The Nehrus & The Gandhis: An Indian Dynasty" by Tariq Ali, which I have just read.
The Congress Party is approximately the equivalent of the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem parties, all rolled into one: a self-perpetuating national unity coalition party, which started life as a national liberation movement but, after independence, has turned into a faction-riddled ragbag of careerists and opportunists. After being in government for decades, corruption and abuses of power become all-pervasive, and the Opposition Parties are desperate to form an electoral pact in order to get rid of the Congress Party.
But who are the Opposition Parties? The main ones are the two Communist Parties (on the left), and a Hindu supremacist / nationalist party on the right, plus a scattering of independents and small local parties.
It would be like having a combined ConLabLibDem Party in power for 30 years, only to be ousted by an electoral coalition comprising the BNP, UKIP, Respect, George Galloway and Plaid Cymru - who have nothing in common with each other except opposition to the ConLabLibDem. It only takes a few years before the voters realise their mistake and re-elect CoLabLibDem again.
That, in a nutshell, is what Indian electoral politics have been like for the last 60 years.
And who do you think is most to blame for the
current spending cuts?
The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: 24(0)
Last Labour Government: 37(+2)
Both: 27 (-2)
Neither: 5(+1)
DK: 7(-2)
Who do you think is most to blame for the cuts:
Coalition : 24 (-)
Labour: 37 (+2)
Watlington ward of the Borough Council of King's Lynn
UKIP: 45.5%
Weaste and Seedley, 2013
UKIP: 22.2%
Bletchley and Fenny Stratford
UKIP: 25.2%
All within the last week or two. Polls are unreliable. Stick to the real world.
How many by-elections have there been during that period, and how cherry-picked are those results? (answer: very)
Take Kirklees on the same day as Watlington: UKIP did not even have a candidate. Does that real-world case indicate that they have no support there?
UKIP has sprung up from a low base in the polls; they are now declining again. It'll be interesting to see what their true level of support is, especially with the Euro elections next year to queer things.
Coalition: 20 / 25 / 26 / 27
Labour: 46 / 39 / 36 / 36
Crossover ~ 2022.....
Thus the hate campaign the Cameroons are attempting to launch against UKIP is likely merely to send this branch of UKIP voters back to Labour.
The Cameroons have really got the Conservatives into a strategic two front war.
I blame autocorrect.
I am concerned that an essential driver of traffic on this site is in danger of fading away here. What can be done?
Maybe I'm being pessimistic but two years out from 1997 Blair was the Messiah facing a demoralized Tory rump. I'm not getting a sense of that from Ed and can't see that he has it in him.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02219/blackshirts_2219047b.jpg
Here's the early discussion thread for Britain: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/britain-early-discussion.html
Bond market moves are driven by the realisation that the punch bowl will be taken away (it's been a helluva party - thanks Greenspan for ballsing it up for everyone). However, mortgage interest rates (unless you have a legacy deal which is rolling off) are set of market rates (usually 3-4%) vs BoE base rate so the impact will be much less marked than you are suggesting.
The interesting data I've asked the team to look into is the implications of the ongoing roll-off of fixed rates / teaser deals over the next couple of years. It's that sub-set which is where the pressure would be.
That they want to do something that their supporters will actually like for a change?
That by the autumn statement Osborne thinks he will be able to cut borrowing and cut taxes?
There are a few options here.
But why are Labour now so unpopular with women?
Tories helping normal married people, ignoring the rich shocker
"Pensioners should be no more immune to the impact of Government spending cuts than other members of society"
Con: +14
Lab: -2
LibD: +6
UKIP: -
Brave of the two Eds to lead the charge....
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll.pdf
Are you jealous of Dave's date nights? You post an awful lot about them. Perhaps you should try one, it might make you a little less negative.
But the likely behaviour of non-voters in 2010 would be worth a poll and/or a thread. They are a mixed bunch - there was a "Labour but not Gordon" group, a "plague on all of you/politics shmolitics" group and of course the usual "oops I'm on holiday" group. Labour has recovered some of the first group and UKIP has some of the second, and both these cohorts now seem quite keen. The question (which affects what we think of ICM/Populus assumptions) is whether they'll slump back onto the sofa when the election comes round.
Just as the Cameroons were judged and found wanting ie they did not 'seal the deal'.
So what we get in 2015 is another weak government, this time probably of the Eds.
Whoever it is though will have no answers to Britain's decline, the growing inequality, the effects of globalisation etc.
To an extent this is because there really aren't any good answers. But even if there were neither the Cameroons or the Eds would be able or willing to implement them.
By 2020 Britain's problems will have reached crisis point and seen to be so resulting in a very angry country.
After seeing so much mediocre nonsense packed with characters I haven't given give a toss about - this is gripping and engaging from the get-go.
If you haven't watched it - you're missing a treat.
Gerald went on: “I shared that round on a bus on the way to the station. Some people didn’t want any because they were worried about eating the evidence.”
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4980902/Clickety-nicked.html#ixzz2XD96RzL3
When George tells Labour what their spending policies are this week we may still have to find some different priorities to differentiate the parties.
Thankfully, as Tim has in fairness always told us, George is a master strategist.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/from-the-nhs-to-the-police-public-servants-are-putting-their-own-interests-first-8671134.html
What I know for certain is that spending is substantially less than it would have been under Labour, whatever they now claim about financial discipline. Still more rejoicing in heaven etc...
http://www.espn.co.uk/marussia/motorsport/story/112333.html
Wonderful British eccentric, inspiring academic and a TV natural.
RIP .... until "Time Team AD2500" dig you up !!
Going on a radio phone in without having watched the program seems....optimistic, possibly even a tad eccentric.
He'll be watching the programme now because the home affairs select committee for one will be having quite the 'conversation' again with him about this and much else soon enough.
Having an impact on your own life, or not having an impact on your own life? 2013 ytd (vs 2012)
Having an impact: 56 (-7)
Not having an impact: 30 (+4)
What's the point of Ed Miliband ?
He leading (titters) a dozy bunch of second raters that mid term are struggling to muster a decent lead in the polls whilst giving the impression that there is no policy that'll not be subject to a U turn and despite the Coalition implementing economic policies about as popular as clinic full of STD's.
I suppose the nation is stuck with this comical figure until June 2015 .... well at least Ed provides a few laughs along the way.
The puritan Tory fantasy is so far gone they're using the word "spending" as an epithet!
@Con_Voice
ComRes poll for Independent: Labour's lead shrinks to just 6 points >>> http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/24/new-comres-phone-poll-sees-ukip-dropping-3-and-lab-extending-lead-to-6/ … via @MSmithsonPB @PaulGoodmanCH @wallaceme
Slapped down by Mike.
I did wonder if Labour really had to go back to the sardines to find a tough choice that they had had to make.
Choosing between David and Ed was a truly tough choice for the party. If I had had a vote I wouldn't have known where to start.
From saying borrowing = more tax receipts = good, he's sort of implying that their cuts will be "nice" cuts (as opposed to those the evil Tories have already imposed). This was the mantra that Gordon constantly opposed.
It might be a winning line, but it will need careful handling during an election campaign. Darling might have managed it (he proposed it in 2010), but the two Eds will struggle after their statements over the last two years.
I thought the Labour party were keeping their powder dry but maybe they don't have any powder that they dare use?
10/10 for your new avatar. Principally because most normal folk will only be able to read :
Regulate BenM Now
Well quite.