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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The British Election Study suggests that differential turno

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  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    JEO said:

    Sadiq Khan falling in polls after he tried to stir up Muslim tensions with made-up story:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/sadiq-khan-would-lose-city-hall-contest-with-zac-goldsmith-poll-says-10393127.html

    But interestingly:
    "Given a choice between Dame Tessa Jowell and Mr Goldsmith, 57 per cent chose the Labour candidate and 43 per cent opted for the Conservative frontrunner."
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    edited July 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    when is the LD big announcement?

    They are announcing the result at 17:00 via social media.
    BBC: "The winner, who will be announced on social media at about 17:00 BST, will then address a party rally in central London."

    I'm sure that OGH will let us know as soon as he knows himself.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Disraeli said:

    dr_spyn said:

    when is the LD big announcement?

    They are announcing the result at 17:00 via social media.
    BBC: "The winner, who will be announced on social media at about 17:00 BST, will then address a party rally in central London."

    I'm sure that OGH will let us know as soon as he knows himself.
    I bet all of about...starts counting on one hand...will be on tender hooks.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited July 2015
    Lib Dem leadership results are in -

    Scrub that, joker on LDV.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    Disraeli said:

    dr_spyn said:

    when is the LD big announcement?

    They are announcing the result at 17:00 via social media.
    BBC: "The winner, who will be announced on social media at about 17:00 BST, will then address a party rally in central London."

    I'm sure that OGH will let us know as soon as he knows himself.
    I bet all of about...starts counting on one hand...will be on tender hooks.
    Tenterhooks!!!!
    /pedant mode
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2015
    ISIS are apparently offering followers in Morocco £5k each to recruit more, and it's only 50miles from Spain [if you ignore Ceuta] and now this >>
    Extremists loyal to the Islamic State in Egypt have attacked a naval patrol ship in the Mediterranean Sea, causing it to burst into flames.

    The Egyptian military said earlier a coastguard vessel had exchanged shots with militants just two miles off the coast of northern Sinai, an area bordering Israel and the Gaza Strip.

    There were no fatalities among the vessel's crew in the shootout with the terrorists, according to a Facebook message posted by military spokesman, Brigadier General Mohammed Samir.

    ISIS declared their presence on Sinai - a peninsula popular with British holidaymakers - last November when up to 2,000 members of the already established jihadi group Ansar Bait al-Maqdis swore allegiance to ISIS' leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3163910/Terror-high-seas-Egyptian-navy-vessel-erupts-huge-fireball-ISIS-carry-rocket-strike-patrol-ship-Mediterranean.html#ixzz3g4JfV91O
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @Disraeli Thanks.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    edited July 2015
    Is the BBC's tremendous "soft power" the reason why the UK is so popular in Europe and across the world? It cannot even fix the Eurovision Song Contest which, for the BBC, is surely playing at home.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    The BBC has cut it's own throat - the garbage coverage of the Open and Wimbledon in the last 2 weeks is a pertinent example.

    The Open? Are you from the future?
    No - its on today - and I already have montage fatigue.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8s8 seconds ago
    Tim Farron has been elected leader of the Liberal Democrats.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    edited July 2015
    Farron, apparently.

    Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/621703517871435776
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    Mr. EPG, you are a silly sausage.

    The great British public like sausages!
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Farron!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8s9 seconds ago
    Liberal Democrat leadership result:
    FARRON - 56.5%
    LAMB - 43.5%
    (turnout 56%)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. EPG, but not euro-sausages.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Only 56%? Cripes
    dr_spyn said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8s9 seconds ago
    Liberal Democrat leadership result:
    FARRON - 56.5%
    LAMB - 43.5%
    (turnout 56%)

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited July 2015

    Plato said:

    It's such an absurd argument - if they made that much money - we wouldn't need a telly tax at all!

    TGOHF said:

    The Dartford Crossing - an economic powerhouse for Britain.

    An economic powerhouse is one that stimulates economic activity and investment. The BBC does that. The UK has recently been named the number one country in the world in terms of soft power. The BBC has a lot to do with that view of our country.

    This is all very hopeful. Peak Tory hubris really could see them make some very stupid mistakes, such that even the current moribund Labour party could benefit.
    The BBC is certainly a major triumph for the UK. While it has its flaws, it should certainly be encouraged to grow. It is just time that such a strong global brand stands on its own two feet by generating its own funding, rather than relying on corporate welfare via the television tax.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,663
    JEO said:

    He's not accusing it of being too lax. He's accusing it of being illegal.

    The problem is that the different duties and requirements of the ECB contradict themselves (as various parts of most constitutions do, for that matter).

    So: it is illegal for the ECB to prop up an insolvent bank.

    But does that mean that at the first sign a bank *might* be insolvent, that the ECB pulls the plug? If so, then private sector investors will flee the bank if they think it might be... And then it will be...

    In other words, is the ECB's financial stability mandate more important than its insolvency one? Or its monetary funding one? It seems that either option will involve the directors of the ECB potentially acting illegally, and therefore they need to be clear and open in their reasoning.

    Like in most crises, it is an adhocracy, with people trying their hardest to solve a crisis, given political and legal constraints. I highly doubt that any of the directors of the ECB, or the ECB itself, could be in legal trouble because not doing what they did is as likely to be "illegal" as what they did do...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Is the BBC's tremendous "soft power" the reason why the UK is so popular in Europe and across the world?

    Sorry it upsets you.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21657655-oxbridge-one-direction-and-premier-league-bolster-britains-power-persuade-softly-does-it

    But we have a great global brand. The BBC is a part of it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    56-44 : much closer than I expected.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 2m2 minutes ago

    I'm told some Lib Dem members wrote in "Nick Clegg" on their leadership ballots. Which is sweet.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    Mr. EPG, but not euro-sausages.

    Toulouse sausages and funny chorizo things have their place.

    I still think it will be surprisingly high IN. Having been IN for over forty years, it is the small-C conservative choice. OUT needs a much more convincing case that Britain won't lose in the private sector, not just that it might gain a bit in fiscal space from Belgiangeld.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: I'm told some Lib Dem members wrote in "Nick Clegg" on their leadership ballots. Which is sweet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    On the principle of trying to buy low, I've dipped my toes into the Eng-Aus match with £15 on England at 16.5
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Only 56% turnout? That makes it a voting pool of about 2 men and a dog....
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670

    Is the BBC's tremendous "soft power" the reason why the UK is so popular in Europe and across the world?

    Sorry it upsets you.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21657655-oxbridge-one-direction-and-premier-league-bolster-britains-power-persuade-softly-does-it

    But we have a great global brand. The BBC is a part of it.
    "Diplomats in Beijing won’t lose too much sleep over the index, compiled by Portland, a London-based PR firm, together with Facebook, which provided data on governments’ online impact, and ComRes, which ran opinion polls on international attitudes to different countries."
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    I would have voted for Lamb.
    Still, selecting Farron will enable the LibDems to outflank Labour on the left . . . Oh! Wait! . . . :wink:
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Not euro-sausages but emulsified, high fat offal tubes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. EPG, I suspected In would win by a large margin. Recent events may change my mind (if it settles down, this nonsense will be a forgotten memory for most people when the referendum rolls around).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. Disraeli, if Labour go for Corbyn then the once tightly contested 'middle' ground as well as most of the right will be available to the blues.

    Not sure that's healthy, frankly. Governments need sound oppositions to keep them honest.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Plato said:

    I'm with Plusnet and they want to charge me more for my current bband than Sky. So that's me off to Sky at the end of August.

    Churning their base is so pointless, frankly their service is constantly going down/resetting every day so it's the push I need to stop accepting it.

    Plato said:

    I really must look up what BT TV includes. It was something we talked about there for years and it never got off the ground, then Bingo.

    dr_spyn said:

    @Plato Nothing like kicking your opponents. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33550866 BT secured TV rights for more live football, complete coincidence that this story is run today.

    All I know is that as a BT fibre broadband customer I get access to BT Sport on my computer (without taking the BT TV package). This gave me premiership matches. Now they plan to show Champions league but want to bill me £5 extra for that. Not very happy.
    That's interesting. Several people I know have PlusNet and they swear by it. I've never been convinced myself. I guess with all these things you never know for sure until you actually have it installed (partly because the distance of your house to the telephone exchange is a factor with all of them except Virgin).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That's interesting. Several people I know have PlusNet and they swear by it. I've never been convinced myself. I guess with all these things you never know for sure until you actually have it installed (partly because the distance of your house to the telephone exchange is a factor with all of them except Virgin).

    I think PlusNet is just a BT Openreach white label service anyway
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Danny565 said:

    I wonder if that Harriet Harman interview will be seen as a turning point of the leadership contest: Corbyn has won 15 of 23 nominations since Sunday.

    When you think the unthinkable, the thoughtless vote for the unthinking persons Michael Foot. Unfathomable I know.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Scott_P said:

    That's interesting. Several people I know have PlusNet and they swear by it. I've never been convinced myself. I guess with all these things you never know for sure until you actually have it installed (partly because the distance of your house to the telephone exchange is a factor with all of them except Virgin).

    I think PlusNet is just a BT Openreach white label service anyway
    Wholly owned subsidiary. Good reviews.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited July 2015
    .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,161
    Congrats to Tim Farron!

    TICIPM!

    :lol:
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