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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley says Tessa Jowell looks set to become LAB’s candidate for London Mayor

Those that read the Evening Standard will know that YouGov has a new poll out on which Labour hopeful would make the best candidate for London Mayor.

Read the full story here

Blofelds_Cat

First, and "not a surprise"

TheScreamingEagles

Cheers Keiran

TheScreamingEagles

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

FrancisUrquhart

Best of an extremely bad bunch?

FrancisUrquhart

Following on from Burnham is an idiot on the last thread....

http://order-order.com/2015/07/14/burnham-praises-corbyn-in-shift-to-left/

Morris_Dancer

Good stuff, Mr. Pedley. Better than Khan by a long shot.

JEO

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

TheScreamingEagles

This poll should result in the Wrath of Khan at his campaign team?

isam

A right of centre non white candidate would be the best outcome for London... But there are none running

TGOHF

Is she not a bit old ?

Glad to see Khan no longer being taken seriously.

TheScreamingEagles

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

AndyJS

TGOHF said:

Is she not a bit old ?

Glad to see Khan no longer being taken seriously.

Same age as Hillary Clinton.

HYUFD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Following on from Burnham is an idiot on the last thread....

http://order-order.com/2015/07/14/burnham-praises-corbyn-in-shift-to-left/

He has also praised much of Blair's record too, but obviously he wants Corbyn's preferences

Pulpstar

*** Betting post ***

Sky Bet are still 7-4 for Tessa to get the Labour nomination.

It's essentially a 3 horse race with Lammy the distant outsider I reckon, and is a great bet.

I've piled in for a ton fifty anyway, being well covered on Khan and Lammy.

HYUFD

I think Jowell will win the nomination and the Mayoralty, unless Lord Sugar runs as an Independent

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

MarkHopkins

TheScreamingEagles said:

This poll should result in the Wrath of Khan at his campaign team?

I notice you are in the Abbott of saying that.

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

Yes

TGOHF

AndyJS said:

TGOHF said:

Is she not a bit old ?

Glad to see Khan no longer being taken seriously.

Same age as Hillary Clinton.

She wont win either.

TheScreamingEagles

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This poll should result in the Wrath of Khan at his campaign team?

I notice you are in the Abbott of saying that.

I know I'm far too damn subtle. But I love a good pun

TGOHF

Seals out in the HoC - one of their futiles has managed to read 2 sides of A4.

DavidL

Jowell is not a candidate that is going to frighten the horses, red Ken style, or drive oppositional turnout. I think the Tories will find her very hard to beat, especially given the mess they are getting themselves in over Heathrow.

Next Mayor of London I would say.

DavidL

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

Far, far too many of them end up going in the alternative when they don't pay their fines. Fining poor people costs us a fortune.

MTimT

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Exhibit A, the US penal system.

"According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), 2,266,800 adults were incarcerated in U.S. federal and state prisons, and county jails at year-end 2011 – about 0.94% of adults in the U.S. resident population. Additionally, 4,814,200 adults at year-end 2011 were on probation or on parole"

Pulpstar

Fwiw I reckon it's probably

6-5 Tessa
6-4 Khan
10-1 Lammy
20-1 The rest of the field.

Something like that.

AllyPally_Rob

DavidL said:

Jowell is not a candidate that is going to frighten the horses, red Ken style, or drive oppositional turnout. I think the Tories will find her very hard to beat, especially given the mess they are getting themselves in over Heathrow.

Next Mayor of London I would say.

She's a very solid candidate indeed. I can't see Zac coming close tbh given the Labour results in 2015 GE.

shadsy

Sorry to go off topic on Kieran's piece but got an option for anyone wanting to bet on Farron's vote share in the Lib Dem leadership election
ow.ly/PAPdB

Under 40% 50/1
40-45% 25/1
45-50% 16/1
50-55% 4/1
55-60% 7/4
60-65% 3/1
65-70% 8/1
Over 70% 6/1

Plato

I'm a Tory and prefer Tessa to Zac. He's a completely loose canon on a mission. I agree with Matthew Parris about him.

AllyPally_Rob said:

DavidL said:

Jowell is not a candidate that is going to frighten the horses, red Ken style, or drive oppositional turnout. I think the Tories will find her very hard to beat, especially given the mess they are getting themselves in over Heathrow.

Next Mayor of London I would say.

She's a very solid candidate indeed. I can't see Zac coming close tbh given the Labour results in 2015 GE.

Cyclefree

HYUFD said:

I think Jowell will win the nomination and the Mayoralty, unless Lord Sugar runs as an Independent

Why do people rate Lord Sugar? He's ghastly. (IMHO)

isam

For all those who think we are too soft on those that break the law please watch this from 13:00 (continues on the second link)

His son is dead because people don't get locked up for carrying knives

http://youtu.be/lx5gFwBMH80

http://youtu.be/-Le7uCcukfM

HurstLlama

FPT
@JossiasJessup

"... good to see you on a certain game's forums. I read a post and thought: "It can't be!"

Aye, that was me, and in no small measure the cause of my absence from this site for the past few months.

What were you doing on there? Could it be that this child care is not as full time as it is cracked out to be? E.g. Nipper goes down for afternoon nap, Daddy leaps into his 'ship for a couple of hours? That sort of thing, mmm? Mummy comes home in evening and takes over allowing Daddy to relax on the computer for a couple of hours, perhaps.

TGOHF

AllyPally_Rob said:

DavidL said:

Jowell is not a candidate that is going to frighten the horses, red Ken style, or drive oppositional turnout. I think the Tories will find her very hard to beat, especially given the mess they are getting themselves in over Heathrow.

Next Mayor of London I would say.

She's a very solid candidate indeed. I can't see Zac coming close tbh given the Labour results in 2015 GE.

Even if Labour are led by Corbyn ? Or worse - Burnham ?

Add in Crosby and Zac will stroll it.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Shadsy, not betting on that myself (probably) but the 45-55% brackets look most tempting to me.

HYUFD

TGOHF said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

DavidL said:

Jowell is not a candidate that is going to frighten the horses, red Ken style, or drive oppositional turnout. I think the Tories will find her very hard to beat, especially given the mess they are getting themselves in over Heathrow.

Next Mayor of London I would say.

She's a very solid candidate indeed. I can't see Zac coming close tbh given the Labour results in 2015 GE.

Even if Labour are led by Corbyn ? Or worse - Burnham ?

Add in Crosby and Zac will stroll it.

She led Zac comfortably in the last yougov, though Zac tied Khan. Burnham has the highest favourables of any Labour leadership contendor, Corbyn the worst (so you are correct on that at least)

Zac is a green, liberal, ecowarrior with a £300 million trust fund, not classic Crosby material!

HurstLlama

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

Yes

Really? I am tempted to cry, "Testicles!", but I'm open to persuasion if you would care to produce some figures. You see from work I did a years ago, I would say it takes dedication and effort for a person to get into prison and to get sent down for a first conviction is damn near impossible unless the offence is very serious.

So over to you Mr. Eagles, some figures to back up your claim, please.

Pulpstar

Nibali blown out the back of the climb, he won't be retaining his jersey this year.

Barnesian

OT 9 hours ago

"Chancellor George Osborne has moved to block any attempt to use British taxpayers' money as part of the Greek bailout, Treasury sources have said.

Mr Osborne is said to have told other ministers that using EU-wide cash for a bridging loan was a "non-starter".

Doing so would breach an agreement that an EU-wide emergency fund would not be used to underwrite bailouts, he is expected to tell eurozone colleagues. Finance ministers from 28 EU countries are due to meet in Brussels later.

Prime Minister David Cameron said in 2010 he had won a "clear and unanimous agreement" that the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM) would not be used for further eurozone bailouts, after it was used to assist Ireland and Portugal."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33517457

Just now:

"EU officials have said they will recommend giving Greece "bridge financing" - the temporary funding it needs to keep going ahead of an expected third bailout deal - through the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM) - a €13bn fund backed by the EU budget. Both the UK and the Czech Republic are opposed to this, but the decision to provide the money this way will be based on a majority vote. Providing 15 EU countries agree - equal to 65% - then the fund will be used."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-33480287

Apparently although there was an agreement, it wasn't a "legally binding" agreement even though it was a "clear and unanimous agreement" .

This is going to get interesting.

I suspect the next poll on voting intentions in the UK EU referendum is going to be a bit of a shocker.

Scott_P

@BBCNormanS: I understand still no agreement following Labour shadow cabinet over how to vote on Welfare Bill and Child Tax Credits

MarkHopkins

Barnesian said:

...

"EU officials have said they will recommend giving Greece "bridge financing" - the temporary funding it needs to keep going ahead of an expected third bailout deal - through the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM) - a €13bn fund backed by the EU budget. Both the UK and the Czech Republic are opposed to this, but the decision to provide the money this way will be based on a majority vote. Providing 15 EU countries agree - equal to 65% - then the fund will be used."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-33480287

Apparently although there was an agreement, it wasn't a "legally binding" agreement even though it was a "clear and unanimous agreement" .

This is going to get interesting.

I suspect the next poll on voting intentions in the UK EU referendum is going to be a bit of a shocker.

Agreed. If this goes ahead, then it means no promises from the EU given to Cameron over the referendum can ever be believed. The only sane vote at that point is OUT.

Pulpstar

@Barnesian That won't help the BOI cause !

AllyPally_Rob

TGOHF said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

DavidL said:

Jowell is not a candidate that is going to frighten the horses, red Ken style, or drive oppositional turnout. I think the Tories will find her very hard to beat, especially given the mess they are getting themselves in over Heathrow.

Next Mayor of London I would say.

She's a very solid candidate indeed. I can't see Zac coming close tbh given the Labour results in 2015 GE.

Even if Labour are led by Corbyn ? Or worse - Burnham ?

Add in Crosby and Zac will stroll it.

Regardless of who Labour are led by Tessa will win if she is the candidate.

A candidates partisan stripes aren't really important, it's if they can be seen to be putting London first that matters, that's why someone as left wing as Ken was able to win.

FrancisUrquhart

Team Sky showing amazing team power...lets just pray it is all clean.

JEO

Barnesian,

If the EU decides to go back on previously signed agreements with the UK, then Cameron doesn't have any choice but to get treaty change, or a new treaty. Anything less than that will be shown to not be worth the paper it is written on.

Plato

Arguably, nothing the EU agrees is worth anything when it no longer suits them.

JEO said:

Barnesian,

If the EU decides to go back on previously signed agreements with the UK, then Cameron doesn't have any choice but to get treaty change, or a new treaty. Anything less than that will be shown to not be worth the paper it is written on.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Team Sky showing amazing team power...lets just pray it is all clean.

Is Bertie still in the group ?

Valverde doing god knows what ! Tejay and more importantly Quintanan still there.

HurstLlama

MarkHopkins said:

Barnesian said:

...

"EU officials have said they will recommend giving Greece "bridge financing" - the temporary funding it needs to keep going ahead of an expected third bailout deal - through the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM) - a €13bn fund backed by the EU budget. Both the UK and the Czech Republic are opposed to this, but the decision to provide the money this way will be based on a majority vote. Providing 15 EU countries agree - equal to 65% - then the fund will be used."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-33480287

Apparently although there was an agreement, it wasn't a "legally binding" agreement even though it was a "clear and unanimous agreement" .

This is going to get interesting.

I suspect the next poll on voting intentions in the UK EU referendum is going to be a bit of a shocker.

Agreed. If this goes ahead, then it means no promises from the EU given to Cameron over the referendum can ever be believed. The only sane vote at that point is OUT.

I agree. I fully expect Cameron and Osborne to whinge and complain then agree to stumping up the cash (or guarantee for the cash to be accurate). However, Cameron will next year be telling us that whatever concessions he manages to get in whatever form, short of a new treaty, are cast iron, in black and white and guaranteed. He will expect us to forget about the last time he said such things and he is probably correct to do so.

FrancisUrquhart

Contador broken....

Pulpstar

Bertie's blown !

Tejay out the back too, just Froome, Quintana and another Sky left now.

FrancisUrquhart

What's Froome doing.....why not have Richie Porte drive him up.

I worry about the amount of pushing Froome has been doing day in day out already. The team time trial he was the one doing most of the pushing.

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

Yes

Really? I am tempted to cry, "Testicles!", but I'm open to persuasion if you would care to produce some figures. You see from work I did a years ago, I would say it takes dedication and effort for a person to get into prison and to get sent down for a first conviction is damn near impossible unless the offence is very serious.

So over to you Mr. Eagles, some figures to back up your claim, please.

I can you send the links once I get home in the morning as all the relevant links and reports are on another laptop.

Particularly on the reoffending rates of sentenced prisoners vs non custodial sentences.

So I can have a frame of reference do you consider theft/criminal damage of bikes very serious so I can understand what you consider a very serious offence.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

What's Froome doing..

Winning the Tour.

Life_ina_market_town

Barnesian said:

Apparently although there was an agreement, it wasn't a "legally binding" agreement even though it was a "clear and unanimous agreement" .

This is going to get interesting.

I suspect the next poll on voting intentions in the UK EU referendum is going to be a bit of a shocker.

The initial bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal were conducted under article 122(2) TFEU, which allows the Council, by qualified majority, to grant financial assistance to a member state where there is a natural disaster or other circumstance beyond the control of the member state. The legality of using article 122(2) in this way has always been highly contentious, although the United Kingdom never challenged it in the Court of Justice. It was recognised, however, that article 122(2) could not be used to set up a permanent bailout mechanism.

The Eurozone countries therefore decided to set up the European Stability Mechanism, for which they needed an amendment to the treaties under article 48(6) TEU. We had a veto over the treaty amendment. We therefore had the opportunity to insist article 122(2) was amended to make explicit that it could not be used to bail Eurozone countries out of the melancholy consequences of their debt and improvidence. David Cameron, skilled negotiator that he is, waived the British veto for nothing in return. Parliament duly passed the European Union (Approval of Treaty Amendment Decision) Act 2012, giving effect to the amendment to article 136 TFEU. What Cameron did obtain was a recital to the Council Decision (2011/199/EU), of no legal effect, stating that article 122(2) would not be used for similar purposes again.

The man was either taken for a fool, or has been taking the British people for fools since he claimed he had repatriated the bail out power.

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What's Froome doing..

Winning the Tour.

Still more climbing days to come. I worry he might break after working so much harder than his rivals so far.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What's Froome doing..

Winning the Tour.

Still more climbing days to come. I worry he might break after working so much harder than his rivals so far.

Nah, he's back to 2013 form. He'll be 5 minutes in front come Paris.

HurstLlama

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

Yes

Really? I am tempted to cry, "Testicles!", but I'm open to persuasion if you would care to produce some figures. You see from work I did a years ago, I would say it takes dedication and effort for a person to get into prison and to get sent down for a first conviction is damn near impossible unless the offence is very serious.

So over to you Mr. Eagles, some figures to back up your claim, please.

I can you send the links once I get home in the morning as all the relevant links and reports are on another laptop.

Particularly on the reoffending rates of sentenced prisoners vs non custodial sentences.

So I can have a frame of reference do you consider theft/criminal damage of bikes very serious so I can understand what you consider a very serious offence.

No, theft of a bicycle would not count as a very serious offence in my frame of reference.

Reoffending rates are irrelevant to our current discussion as we are talking about people being sentenced to prison on first conviction.

I look forward to receiving your figures, you have my email I think but HurstLlama at gmail dot com will find me.

DavidL

Barnesian said:

OT 9 hours ago

"Chancellor George Osborne has moved to block any attempt to use British taxpayers' money as part of the Greek bailout, Treasury sources have said.

Mr Osborne is said to have told other ministers that using EU-wide cash for a bridging loan was a "non-starter".

Doing so would breach an agreement that an EU-wide emergency fund would not be used to underwrite bailouts, he is expected to tell eurozone colleagues. Finance ministers from 28 EU countries are due to meet in Brussels later.

Prime Minister David Cameron said in 2010 he had won a "clear and unanimous agreement" that the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM) would not be used for further eurozone bailouts, after it was used to assist Ireland and Portugal."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33517457

Just now:

"EU officials have said they will recommend giving Greece "bridge financing" - the temporary funding it needs to keep going ahead of an expected third bailout deal - through the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM) - a €13bn fund backed by the EU budget. Both the UK and the Czech Republic are opposed to this, but the decision to provide the money this way will be based on a majority vote. Providing 15 EU countries agree - equal to 65% - then the fund will be used."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-33480287

Apparently although there was an agreement, it wasn't a "legally binding" agreement even though it was a "clear and unanimous agreement" .

This is going to get interesting.

I suspect the next poll on voting intentions in the UK EU referendum is going to be a bit of a shocker.

The Germans are apparently supporting us as well: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11738150/Greece-news-live-Germans-back-Osbornes-fight-against-Juncker-plan-to-bail-out-Greece-as-IMF-calls-for-more-debt-relief.html

So that is really the end of that.

isam

Ah good old multicultural Luton...

Plenty of people have been decried for predicting trouble there

https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/620966357534941184

HurstLlama

"The man [Cameron] was either taken for a fool, or has been taking the British people for fools since he claimed he had repatriated the bail out power."

I am not sure that is an either/or proposition. Is a fool, was taken for a fool and has been trying to take the British people for fools would perhaps be more accurate.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This poll should result in the Wrath of Khan at his campaign team?

I notice you are in the Abbott of saying that.

I know I'm far too damn subtle. But I love a good pun

And bad puns, it seems...

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

Yes

Really? I am tempted to cry, "Testicles!", but I'm open to persuasion if you would care to produce some figures. You see from work I did a years ago, I would say it takes dedication and effort for a person to get into prison and to get sent down for a first conviction is damn near impossible unless the offence is very serious.

So over to you Mr. Eagles, some figures to back up your claim, please.

I can you send the links once I get home in the morning as all the relevant links and reports are on another laptop.

Particularly on the reoffending rates of sentenced prisoners vs non custodial sentences.

So I can have a frame of reference do you consider theft/criminal damage of bikes very serious so I can understand what you consider a very serious offence.

No, theft of a bicycle would not count as a very serious offence in my frame of reference.

Reoffending rates are irrelevant to our current discussion as we are talking about people being sentenced to prison on first conviction.

I look forward to receiving your figures, you have my email I think but HurstLlama at gmail dot com will find me.

What about this ?

http://citiblogmk.co.uk/2015/06/24/milton-keynes-man-jailed-over-criminal-damage-and-theft-from-vehicle/

chestnut

From the Guardian

Hollande said France and Germany would now draw up new rules for “better economic governance” in the EU and that France would come up with proposals, though he did not give details.

“In the long run I would like there to be a parliament for the eurozone,” he added calling for greater harmonisation of “fiscal and social policies” in the single currency zone.

“This is what we, along with Germany, want,”


---

European parliaments are like those little Russian dolls; there's always another one inside the last one.

Pulpstar

@FrancisUrquhart Richie Porte catching Quintana O_O

Pulpstar

Lol, that finish was ridiculous by Porte.

Sean_F

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

Yes

So over to you Mr. Eagles, some figures to back up your claim, please.

I can you send the links once I get home in the morning as all the relevant links and reports are on another laptop.

Particularly on the reoffending rates of sentenced prisoners vs non custodial sentences.

So I can have a frame of reference do you consider theft/criminal damage of bikes very serious so I can understand what you consider a very serious offence.

No, theft of a bicycle would not count as a very serious offence in my frame of reference.

Reoffending rates are irrelevant to our current discussion as we are talking about people being sentenced to prison on first conviction.

I look forward to receiving your figures, you have my email I think but HurstLlama at gmail dot com will find me.

Looking at the prison numbers on the ONS and Gov. UK websites, about 64,000 out of 84,000 prisoners (as at 31.12.14) were serving sentences of 12 months or more. About 43,000 were serving sentences of four years or more. 27% were in prison for violence against the person, and 16% for sexual offences. The UK jails more rapists than any other European country. These can all be regarded as pretty serious offenders, IMO. Taking them out of circulation is a good thing.

Whether prison is appropriate for the other 20,000 is more questionable. They're divided fairly evenly between prisoners being held on remand, and those serving short sentences (and c.100 fine defaulters).

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

Lol, that finish was ridiculous by Porte.

Porte and Thomas are going to have a fun couple of days now having to close down attacks.

JosiasJessop

HurstLlama said:

FPT
@JossiasJessup

"... good to see you on a certain game's forums. I read a post and thought: "It can't be!"

Aye, that was me, and in no small measure the cause of my absence from this site for the past few months.

What were you doing on there? Could it be that this child care is not as full time as it is cracked out to be? E.g. Nipper goes down for afternoon nap, Daddy leaps into his 'ship for a couple of hours? That sort of thing, mmm? Mummy comes home in evening and takes over allowing Daddy to relax on the computer for a couple of hours, perhaps.

A couple of hours would be luxury,

Alas, I seem to spend more time reading the forums, which I can do on a tablet whilst looking after him without going up to my playroomstudy.

My parents are visiting atm, so I'm doing a rares trading run towards Zeessze in my type-6.

TGOHF

AllyPally_Rob said:

TGOHF said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

DavidL said:

Jowell is not a candidate that is going to frighten the horses, red Ken style, or drive oppositional turnout. I think the Tories will find her very hard to beat, especially given the mess they are getting themselves in over Heathrow.

Next Mayor of London I would say.

She's a very solid candidate indeed. I can't see Zac coming close tbh given the Labour results in 2015 GE.

Even if Labour are led by Corbyn ? Or worse - Burnham ?

Add in Crosby and Zac will stroll it.

Regardless of who Labour are led by Tessa will win if she is the candidate.

A candidates partisan stripes aren't really important, it's if they can be seen to be putting London first that matters, that's why someone as left wing as Ken was able to win.

Ken wouldn't win now - times have changed.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

Yes

Really? I am tempted to cry, "Testicles!", but I'm open to persuasion if you would care to produce some figures. You see from work I did a years ago, I would say it takes dedication and effort for a person to get into prison and to get sent down for a first conviction is damn near impossible unless the offence is very serious.

So over to you Mr. Eagles, some figures to back up your claim, please.

I can you send the links once I get home in the morning as all the relevant links and reports are on another laptop.

Particularly on the reoffending rates of sentenced prisoners vs non custodial sentences.

So I can have a frame of reference do you consider theft/criminal damage of bikes very serious so I can understand what you consider a very serious offence.

No, theft of a bicycle would not count as a very serious offence in my frame of reference.

Reoffending rates are irrelevant to our current discussion as we are talking about people being sentenced to prison on first conviction.

I look forward to receiving your figures, you have my email I think but HurstLlama at gmail dot com will find me.

What about this ?

http://citiblogmk.co.uk/2015/06/24/milton-keynes-man-jailed-over-criminal-damage-and-theft-from-vehicle/

Where does it say they were his first offences?

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Lol, that finish was ridiculous by Porte.

Porte and Thomas are going to have a fun couple of days now having to close down attacks.

I've got a long term bet on Froome to win 5 or more TdFs.

USADA looking the most likely to bust it at this point.

TGOHF

Ach well that's the TdF over..

HurstLlama

TheScreamingEagles said:

What about this ?

http://citiblogmk.co.uk/2015/06/24/milton-keynes-man-jailed-over-criminal-damage-and-theft-from-vehicle/

Irrelevant, Mr. Eagles, the article says nothing about the man's previous criminal history.

Your claim was that people are sent to prison for non-serious offence on first conviction.

Reoffending rates or random articles about people being sent to prison for other than serious offences will not do. Please either support your claim or admit that you misread the original question, I really don't mind which.

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Lol, that finish was ridiculous by Porte.

Porte and Thomas are going to have a fun couple of days now having to close down attacks.

I've got a long term bet on Froome to win 5 or more TdFs.

USADA looking the most likely to bust it at this point.

As Ray Winstone says in the advert...CASSSHHHH OUT....

DavidL

I have to say provided it is clear that the agreement entered into with Cameron is to be respected and that the EFSM is moribund I personally would not have any problem with a short term bilateral loan from the UK to Greece, repayable out of the refinancing loan when that is available.

Their government has behaved like complete idiots and done their best to destroy their country but the hardship suffered by the people of Greece is very real and, bluntly, tens of thousands, minimum, are going to try to come here if everything falls apart.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For those who wondered why I think Chris Grayling a tw@, this is why

“Our own assessments about safety were consistent with data that the national offender management service (Noms) itself produced. You were more likely to die in prison than five years ago. More prisoners were murdered, killed themselves, self-harmed and were victims of assaults than five years ago,” said Hardwick. “The number of assaults and serious assaults against staff also rose.”

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jul/14/prisons-at-their-worst-level-for-10-years

"The chief inspector says alternatives to custody should be considered to bring down the prison population, which currently stands at 86,255. He says this may be “unpalatable” to politicians but so are many other public spending choices the government has to make."

Prisons are in a bad way so we should let prisoners out on the street to terrorise the public even though they haven't served an appropriate sentence yet?

For first time offenders, those serving short sentences for low grade crimes, yes.

Prison right now makes people worse. That's not good for society.

Do first time offenders of low grade crimes go to prison?

Yes

Really? I am tempted to cry, "Testicles!", but I'm open to persuasion if you would care to produce some figures. You see from work I did a years ago, I would say it takes dedication and effort for a person to get into prison and to get sent down for a first conviction is damn near impossible unless the offence is very serious.

So over to you Mr. Eagles, some figures to back up your claim, please.

I can you send the links once I get home in the morning as all the relevant links and reports are on another laptop.

Particularly on the reoffending rates of sentenced prisoners vs non custodial sentences.

So I can have a frame of reference do you consider theft/criminal damage of bikes very serious so I can understand what you consider a very serious offence.

.

I look forward to receiving your figures, you have my email I think but HurstLlama at gmail dot com will find me.

What about this ?

http://citiblogmk.co.uk/2015/06/24/milton-keynes-man-jailed-over-criminal-damage-and-theft-from-vehicle/

He was found guilty of multiple offences, though.

felix

TGOHF said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

TGOHF said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

DavidL said:

Jowell is not a candidate that is going to frighten the horses, red Ken style, or drive oppositional turnout. I think the Tories will find her very hard to beat, especially given the mess they are getting themselves in over Heathrow.

Next Mayor of London I would say.

She's a very solid candidate indeed. I can't see Zac coming close tbh given the Labour results in 2015 GE.

Even if Labour are led by Corbyn ? Or worse - Burnham ?

Add in Crosby and Zac will stroll it.

Regardless of who Labour are led by Tessa will win if she is the candidate.

A candidates partisan stripes aren't really important, it's if they can be seen to be putting London first that matters, that's why someone as left wing as Ken was able to win.

Ken wouldn't win now - times have changed.

Indeed - Jowell is mediocre but might just scrape it - and she is head and shoulders above any of the contenders for the Labour leadership. Sad times for Labour. I feel their pain. Ok no I don't - I love it

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

This poll should result in the Wrath of Khan at his campaign team?

TSE, I'm laughing at the superior intellect!

taffys

This is what we, along with Germany, want,”

The influence that Hollande is able to wield in Europe, considering the utterly p8sspoor state of France, is quite astonishing.

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What about this ?

http://citiblogmk.co.uk/2015/06/24/milton-keynes-man-jailed-over-criminal-damage-and-theft-from-vehicle/

Irrelevant, Mr. Eagles, the article says nothing about the man's previous criminal history.

Your claim was that people are sent to prison for non-serious offence on first conviction.

Reoffending rates or random articles about people being sent to prison for other than serious offences will not do. Please either support your claim or admit that you misread the original question, I really don't mind which.

I was just trying to further understand your point of reference.

Sean_F

Life_ina_market_town said:

Barnesian said:

Apparently although there was an agreement, it wasn't a "legally binding" agreement even though it was a "clear and unanimous agreement" .

This is going to get interesting.

I suspect the next poll on voting intentions in the UK EU referendum is going to be a bit of a shocker.

The initial bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal were conducted under article 122(2) TFEU, which allows the Council, by qualified majority, to grant financial assistance to a member state where there is a natural disaster or other circumstance beyond the control of the member state. The legality of using article 122(2) in this way has always been highly contentious, although the United Kingdom never challenged it in the Court of Justice. It was recognised, however, that article 122(2) could not be used to set up a permanent bailout mechanism.

The Eurozone countries therefore decided to set up the European Stability Mechanism, for which they needed an amendment to the treaties under article 48(6) TEU. We had a veto over the treaty amendment. We therefore had the opportunity to insist article 122(2) was amended to make explicit that it could not be used to bail Eurozone countries out of the melancholy consequences of their debt and improvidence. David Cameron, skilled negotiator that he is, waived the British veto for nothing in return. Parliament duly passed the European Union (Approval of Treaty Amendment Decision) Act 2012, giving effect to the amendment to article 136 TFEU. What Cameron did obtain was a recital to the Council Decision (2011/199/EU), of no legal effect, stating that article 122(2) would not be used for similar purposes again.

The man was either taken for a fool, or has been taking the British people for fools since he claimed he had repatriated the bail out power.

Is it not the case that almost anything we negotiate, however legally watertight it may appear, can be overruled by the ECJ due to its "purposive" construction of the law?

Scott_P

@afneil: Still no progress on bridging finance for Greece. Britain + Germany opposed to use of EU-wide EFSM. Greece needs €7bn Monday or defaults ECB

HurstLlama

JosiasJessop said:

HurstLlama said:

FPT
@JossiasJessup

"... good to see you on a certain game's forums. I read a post and thought: "It can't be!"

Aye, that was me, and in no small measure the cause of my absence from this site for the past few months.

What were you doing on there? Could it be that this child care is not as full time as it is cracked out to be? E.g. Nipper goes down for afternoon nap, Daddy leaps into his 'ship for a couple of hours? That sort of thing, mmm? Mummy comes home in evening and takes over allowing Daddy to relax on the computer for a couple of hours, perhaps.

A couple of hours would be luxury,

Alas, I seem to spend more time reading the forums, which I can do on a tablet whilst looking after him without going up to my playroomstudy.

My parents are visiting atm, so I'm doing a rares trading run towards Zeessze in my type-6.

Never mind, one day you will be old and retired and can spend as long as you like on your games (subject to Herself's needs and commands, of course). My mind boggles at what sort of games you will be playing if the advances we have seen in the past thirty years continues - I remember playing the original back in 1984 and thinking it stunning.

One thing about the game is how it has remodeled my playroom and gaming habits. I now have a HOTAS, use voice commands, a head tracker and am currently setting up a user defined keyboard using an old Galaxy Note and the German Roccat software. The game has become a hobby in its own right. I just have to convince herself that replacing my current 32 inch monitor with three new ones would be sensible - could be tricky.

Life_ina_market_town

There is some debate to be had about the efficacy of short sentences, and there is a strong argument for not imprisoning anyone for the mere possession of drugs, even if you take the view that the current substantive law should not be amended. The fact remains, however, that sentences for offences of violence (other than murder) and for serious property crime, especially that involving dishonesty, are too short, often shockingly so, and ought to be increased. For example, the starting point for the most serious form of the most serious substantive non-fatal offence against the person (s. 18 of the Offences against the Person Act 1861) is twelve years custody.

Scott_P

HurstLlama said:

One thing about the game is how it has remodeled my playroom and gaming habits. I now have a HOTAS, use voice commands, a head tracker and am currently setting up a user defined keyboard using an old Galaxy Note and the German Roccat software. The game has become a hobby in its own right. I just have to convince herself that replacing my current 32 inch monitor with three new ones would be sensible - could be tricky.

Get yourself one of these bad boys...

http://www.zavvi.com/games/the-recreated-sinclair-zx-spectrum/11092093.html

logical_song

UKIP 'sausage roll man' strikes again - and asks Europe for help.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/13410744.Hampshire_UKIP_candidate_to_take_court_case_to_Europe_in_bid_to_clear_name/

AnneJGP

DavidL said:

I have to say provided it is clear that the agreement entered into with Cameron is to be respected and that the EFSM is moribund I personally would not have any problem with a short term bilateral loan from the UK to Greece, repayable out of the refinancing loan when that is available.

Their government has behaved like complete idiots and done their best to destroy their country but the hardship suffered by the people of Greece is very real and, bluntly, tens of thousands, minimum, are going to try to come here if everything falls apart.

I am totally at a loss to understand why a suitable charity is not asking for donations to help ordinary Greek people in their very real hardships. Or have I missed it?

DavidL

In Scotland, and I believe in England, there is a statutory presumption against imprisonment for a first offence unless there is no alternative. The requirement to find a non custodial alternative will result in a community based sentence unless the offence is particularly egregious.

Of course different courts have different views of what is egregious but the appeal court are pretty consistent. As a general rule of thumb if the sentence would otherwise be 6 months or less an alternative will be found.

That is not, however, the end of the matter. Most criminals in my experience get their first taste of jail for non payment of fines or compensation payments. And many of these are indeed first offenders. A power to deduct fines from benefits etc seems an obvious solution.

HurstLlama

DavidL said:

I have to say provided it is clear that the agreement entered into with Cameron is to be respected and that the EFSM is moribund I personally would not have any problem with a short term bilateral loan from the UK to Greece, repayable out of the refinancing loan when that is available.

Their government has behaved like complete idiots and done their best to destroy their country but the hardship suffered by the people of Greece is very real and, bluntly, tens of thousands, minimum, are going to try to come here if everything falls apart.

That is a completely different cauldron of octopus, Mr. L.. If Cameron wants to propose taking £850m from the DfID budget and GIVING it to Greece, you would not hear me complain. It would certainly be better used doing that than in most of the DfID projects.

Philip_Thompson

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What about this ?

http://citiblogmk.co.uk/2015/06/24/milton-keynes-man-jailed-over-criminal-damage-and-theft-from-vehicle/

Where does it say they were his first offences?

It doesn't and I find it hard to believe a 39 year old would be a first time offender.

A quick Google Search for "Jason Cox Milton Keynes" brings up an article from six years ago about a Jason Cox aged 33 who was going to court for a similar offence: http://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/local/pair-charged-after-taxi-driver-robbery-1-869565

That 33 year old would be 39 now and while its possible that two different men with the same name, age (over time) and city should be tried for very similar offences I suspect strongly that this was not a first time offender and that this was in fact the same man.

watford30

felix said:

TGOHF said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

TGOHF said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

DavidL said:

Jowell is not a candidate that is going to frighten the horses, red Ken style, or drive oppositional turnout. I think the Tories will find her very hard to beat, especially given the mess they are getting themselves in over Heathrow.

Next Mayor of London I would say.

She's a very solid candidate indeed. I can't see Zac coming close tbh given the Labour results in 2015 GE.

Even if Labour are led by Corbyn ? Or worse - Burnham ?

Add in Crosby and Zac will stroll it.

Regardless of who Labour are led by Tessa will win if she is the candidate.

A candidates partisan stripes aren't really important, it's if they can be seen to be putting London first that matters, that's why someone as left wing as Ken was able to win.

Ken wouldn't win now - times have changed.

Indeed - Jowell is mediocre but might just scrape it - and she is head and shoulders above any of the contenders for the Labour leadership. Sad times for Labour. I feel their pain. Ok no I don't - I love it

Tessa 'Utterly clueless about her mortgage' Jowell? Awesome.

Scott_P

@PickardJE: Len McCluskey says Harman has “run up the white flag” on welfare. “I’ll send her a dictionary so she can look up definition of opposition.”

JEO

25% of the London rioters had been convicted of more than 10 previous crimes. 5% of the London rioters had been convicted of more than 50 previous crimes. This suggests not too many people are put in prison for any sustained period for low-level offences.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2037692/England-riots-2011-1-4-looters-TEN-convictions.html

TheScreamingEagles

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What about this ?

http://citiblogmk.co.uk/2015/06/24/milton-keynes-man-jailed-over-criminal-damage-and-theft-from-vehicle/

Where does it say they were his first offences?

It doesn't and I find it hard to believe a 39 year old would be a first time offender.

A quick Google Search for "Jason Cox Milton Keynes" brings up an article from six years ago about a Jason Cox aged 33 who was going to court for a similar offence: http://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/local/pair-charged-after-taxi-driver-robbery-1-869565

That 33 year old would be 39 now and while its possible that two different men with the same name, age (over time) and city should be tried for very similar offences I suspect strongly that this was not a first time offender and that this was in fact the same man.

The point I was trying to make clear, unsuccessfully it appears, was Mr Llama talking about first time offenders was are we talking about just one offence or a first conviction with multiple offences.

Bob__Sykes

I hadn't appreciated the technicalities of Art 122(2) so usefully explained by Life_in_a_market_town below. But it looks like we haven't got a leg to stand on if we aren't able to block it, and another abject humiliation would have befallen the UK, Dave and George.

Looks like the Germans have got Cameron out of jail.

DavidL

AnneJGP said:

DavidL said:

I have to say provided it is clear that the agreement entered into with Cameron is to be respected and that the EFSM is moribund I personally would not have any problem with a short term bilateral loan from the UK to Greece, repayable out of the refinancing loan when that is available.

Their government has behaved like complete idiots and done their best to destroy their country but the hardship suffered by the people of Greece is very real and, bluntly, tens of thousands, minimum, are going to try to come here if everything falls apart.

I am totally at a loss to understand why a suitable charity is not asking for donations to help ordinary Greek people in their very real hardships. Or have I missed it?

There was a slightly silly crowd funding idea that got up to half a million or so but I haven't seen anything else.

Plato

What an excellent point.

AnneJGP said:

DavidL said:

I have to say provided it is clear that the agreement entered into with Cameron is to be respected and that the EFSM is moribund I personally would not have any problem with a short term bilateral loan from the UK to Greece, repayable out of the refinancing loan when that is available.

Their government has behaved like complete idiots and done their best to destroy their country but the hardship suffered by the people of Greece is very real and, bluntly, tens of thousands, minimum, are going to try to come here if everything falls apart.

I am totally at a loss to understand why a suitable charity is not asking for donations to help ordinary Greek people in their very real hardships. Or have I missed it?

NickPalmer

AnneJGP said:

I am totally at a loss to understand why a suitable charity is not asking for donations to help ordinary Greek people in their very real hardships. Or have I missed it?

Here it is:
http://greecesolidarity.org/?page_id=807

The message has a political flavour and it's a campaign rather than a registered charity (not too surprising as the crisis has only recently become acute), but the appeal is for medical assistance.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What about this ?

http://citiblogmk.co.uk/2015/06/24/milton-keynes-man-jailed-over-criminal-damage-and-theft-from-vehicle/

Where does it say they were his first offences?

It doesn't and I find it hard to believe a 39 year old would be a first time offender.

A quick Google Search for "Jason Cox Milton Keynes" brings up an article from six years ago about a Jason Cox aged 33 who was going to court for a similar offence: http://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/local/pair-charged-after-taxi-driver-robbery-1-869565

That 33 year old would be 39 now and while its possible that two different men with the same name, age (over time) and city should be tried for very similar offences I suspect strongly that this was not a first time offender and that this was in fact the same man.

The point I was trying to make clear, unsuccessfully it appears, was Mr Llama talking about first time offenders was are we talking about just one offence or a first conviction with multiple offences.

Why would you use an example which is neither?

Philip_Thompson

Bob__Sykes said:

I hadn't appreciated the technicalities of Art 122(2) so usefully explained by Life_in_a_market_town below. But it looks like we haven't got a leg to stand on if we aren't able to block it, and another abject humiliation would have befallen the UK, Dave and George.

Looks like the Germans have got Cameron out of jail.

Not really that's an over-simplification. To look at everything that could happen if you imagine it and twist things accordingly isn't the same as to look at what is happening.

The reality is that five years ago Cameron got an agreement that the EFSM fund would not be used for bailouts and despite some calls for it to be done so now that agreement is still being honoured. If our international partners tried to reneg on an agreement made then it'd be upto Cameron to act in response accordingly but that's not to say it has happened or will happen.

JEO

TheScreamingEagles,

"Adults who served sentences of less than 12 months, re-offended at a rate of 57.7% compared to 34.4% for those who served sentences of 12 months or more."

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/proven-reoffending-statistics-april-2011-march-2012

That seems to go against your argument.

Bob__Sykes

Just watched the Corbyn car crash on C4 News last night

http://www.channel4.com/news/jeremy-corbyn-i-wanted-hamas-to-be-part-of-the-debate

Hilarious. Did the guy not realise he was on telly? :-)