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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour need not only a decent leader they also need a decen
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour need not only a decent leader they also need a decent strategist to help the new leader
It can be argued that the next Labour leader has the hardest task any Labour leader faces since Arthur Henderson. Labour are vulnerable on their left flank, from a Farron led Lib Dem party who will be more attractive to Labour supporters than Nick Clegg. They will also have to deal with the Greens and the SNP on their left. They also have UKIP to contend with on their right flank.
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Edit: the entire Labour team from 2015 needs throwing out and replacing with competent people. But most of all, they need coherent, saleable policies, not the populist incoherent scattergun that Miliband favoured.
As an aside: surely the Fallon comment, and to an extent the Miliband in Salmond's pocket, were tactics rather than out-and-out strategies. It is just that the latter in particular was a very good tactic that, once it was seen to be working, got pressed harder.
The first step does need to be a purge at HQ. Ed was pisspoor, but the campaign team allowed him to show it to the world. Any sane team would have treated the #edstone as a joke.
Balls may well run a good backroom operation. I wouldn't let him near the till but he has other strengths.
That's easy to counter though. You argue that the SNP at Holyrood are interested in helping Scotland, and therefore they can be supported on that remit. The SNP at Westminster are interested in helping Scotland and harming the union (and perhaps England), and therefore it would be madness to support them at Westminster.
Labour need to move on. New policies, new hope, and a new team.
Burnham's sounding like continuity Miliband: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33496931
In an extraordinary put-down, acting party boss Ms Harman told Mr Burnham that Labour had ‘lost’ the debate on capping benefit pay-outs, before adding: ‘You may have noticed that we lost the Election.’
The withering remarks came in a behind-closed-doors meeting of Labour’s Shadow Cabinet last week ahead of George Osborne’s Budget statement.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3157810/Andy-lost-debate-noticed-lost-election-Harman-s-stinging-rebuke-leadership-favourite-Andy-Burnham-amid-claims-tacking-left-defeat-Jeremy-Corbyn.html#ixzz3fehDOHhk
Being a very popular paper in the UK it's not going to help him get his message across to the people he has to convince. Every time the Sun talks about Burnham they should now just show a picture of a tub of lard.
It's backwards looking and to the past.
The last line is particularly interesting: what "special favours" will he be doing for papers that support him?
The leader of the Unite union says that 50,000 members have signed up to vote in the Labour leadership ballot.
Len McCluskey made the announcement sharing a stage with the union's favoured candidate, Jeremy Corbyn, at the Durham Miners' Gala.
Unite came out in support of Mr Corbyn last week in a move the veteran, left-wing MP said "shows we are serious".
Is that enough is have a significant effects on the outcome. Of dear me could you just imagine Corbyn coming through on the inside to win.
I think Liz is ruthless and ambitious to purge the HQ team.
I am beginning to hope that Labour does elect Corbyn so that the Blairites all quit the Party.
If you knew about it and either
(A) liked it
(B) didn't at least have a quiet word with your line manager
you should probably go.
Kendall
Corbyn
Burnham
Cooper
We might get a reborn SDP with Corbyn in charge!
Obviously the Tories don't like him because he has a beard and can't see past that. But that really doesn't matter in this election.
It's just such a terribly bad and asking-for-it stunt, that was actually dead serious.
In years to come - future PBers will make jokes about it and newbies will wonder WTF? It goes into the annals of history along with Ed Balls Day and Free Owls.
That would be a mistake by the Tories and it's probably why Yvette is Labour's best bet for leader.
The beard is fine too, and the corduroy.
HIPS for starters.
If Burnham were tacking left to beat Corbyn, Labour are in big trouble.
I think it's just politicking to be all things to all men (and women). I don't think Ed came over as too left, despite the Tories claims. Too gormless ... yes, but that's a different matter.
With Burnham and Cooper, Labour will get Ed without the obvious gaffes. With Corbyn, they'll have Animal Farm writ large, and with Liz, they'll have a Blair-type election winner.
I don't vote Labour anymore so I wouldn't dare to give advice. But it looks like Burnham as the comfort blanket. Change but not too much.
Corduroycontrary the Tories will love him................ That's why Kendall should be elected.FPT: Mr. T, thanks for that clarification on voting. It seems insane that countries could be forced to throw billions more at Greece.
http://kryogenix.org/random/ed/ed.html
If Labour are to have any hope of coming close in 2020 they need to elect a clean skin, someone with no baggage from the Brown years. That means Kendall.
TSE your PS about the Scotland problem is easily shot down. The Lab/SNP coalition would be running the whole UK for the benefit of Scotland, and not in a good way.
These voices of conservatism arent the landed gentry and captains of industry, its the proliferation of those paid by the public teet, either directly through the civil service or local government, and those indirectly by state funded pressure groups.
The last government can be framed by its welfare and how it was managed. If you were an alien who had recently landed from mars, you would be under the assumption that at no point Labour would want reform, and that the current system that the Coalition was working with, was nothing to do with them.
The most controversial area:
WCA, work capability assessments, and their processing by ATOS. It was incredible how a process set up by the labour government, carried out by the people they contracted to do the work became a sign, (from Labour) of how nasty the coalition was.
The system was so flawed, but the temptation to kick and kick and kick by the opposition, and to openly encourage direct action meant that ATOS themselves decided to call it a day.
Remember, the only changes that the coalition made to the WCA was to make it far less harsh, and much more flexible to people suffering terminal illnesses, and anyone receiving cancer treatment.
' "I give interviews generally and people can report my words. But I don't do special favours for newspapers that attack me and attack my party."
Our Andy's very sensitive, he's in danger of being completely ignored.
Cameron was right when he said about the communities that at best quietly condone terrorism and the 'community leaders' that speak out of both sides of their mouth on extremism. It's not going to be easy but it needs tackling as a matter of priority.
Like them or loath them, the press exist and have to be dealt with, EdM tried the 'Evil Murdoch' approach and they duly got their revenge on him come election time.
Apart from Corbyn all of the Lab leadership candidates are in their early 40s. If we want government by people who have a bit of life experience before they entered national politics then we need older politicians who are relatively fresh to parliament, so not too much part of the machine.
Corbyns age and beard are fine. It is his Syrizia-lite politics that is the problem.
Cameron was right when he said about the communities that at best quietly condone terrorism and the 'community leaders' that speak out of both sides of their mouth on extremism. It's not going to be easy but it needs tackling as a matter of priority.
It can't be tackled. Full stop.
Muslims in this country almost all will the end (Sharia law) if not the means (ISIL-Da'esh* are a bunch of chancers they wouldn't trust to breed rabbits). BTW, if al-Andalusi has been reported correctly, he's not that far off. Which is the bigger coward - the suicide bomber, or the man sitting in a cockpit high in the sky pressing a button to release a drone? The RAF will have expensively trained aircrew on sick leave because they can't face it any more.
*US State Department preferred formulation.
Party before country don't forget..... Party before country.
Liz may stumble for the first two years whilst Labour sorts itself out and finds some viable policies, but she does have at least four years to get there - whilst events happen. Corbyn make take himself off to the unions, but in their present form and thought process they are a dying organisation.
Liz does offer some hope for 2020 and certainly for 2025, but with the others that hope is diminished by over 50%.
Labour seem to have misplaced their production line. Even an outstanding leader would struggle to make an impact on their own. The present candidates need all the help they can get either because they are useless or because they have so much to learn.
it is one thing offering support to the SNP to govern Scotland, which one can assume they'll try and do in the interests of the Scots; it is another to rely on the SNP to govern the UK, when the assumption must still be that they'd try to do so in the interests of the Scots.
I don't think it has anything to do with an "anti-murdoch" type anti-establishment agenda or that any other explanation is warranted. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33496931
I said before the contest got going I would go for Cooper, if a Labour chap. Burnham's a lightweight and Corbyn's far too far leftwing. I'd prefer someone like Kendall, but she's reportedly not performing well.
Cooper would be more a safe pair of hands. That said, I despise the allegation she's going to try waving her ovaries around for political advantage (against Cameron, though of course there's the 'as a mother' response to the Budget). Identity politics is rancid.
Corbyn's politics will turn off the centre in droves. Some people might like him in the way they liked George Galloway or Tony Benn once in a while and when they were giving it to the political establishment and broadly harmless but it's a different matter if they're within a sniff of power. See Michael Foot for details.
And parliament would be greatly improved if it had a much wider cross-section of the population represented, from late entrants to earlier ones.
That won't work, because you are misdiagnosising the problem. The obvious response to that attack is 'well that's in Scotland'.
The issue was that the SNP made very clear that they would be acting solely in the interests of the Scots - and the English didn't fancy being milked.
Muslims in this country almost all will the end (Sharia law) if not the means (ISIL-Da'esh* are a bunch of chancers they wouldn't trust to breed rabbits). BTW, if al-Andalusi has been reported correctly, he's not that far off. Which is the bigger coward - the suicide bomber, or the man sitting in a cockpit high in the sky pressing a button to release a drone? The RAF will have expensively trained aircrew on sick leave because they can't face it any more.
*US State Department preferred formulation.
A good point about the drone pilots. I've not seen studies about UK pilots but in the US it's becoming a serious issue. These guys are going to 'work' dropping bombs for 8 or 10 hours, then coming home to suburban wives and kids unable to talk about their day, before going back to work the next day to drop more bombs. That would screw with anyone's brain.
http://tech.slashdot.org/story/15/06/17/0315219/usaf-cuts-drone-flights-as-stress-drives-off-operators Good comments and links on the subject.
More insulting is that he describes Liverpool as " a Labour city".
It's not.
A majority of the current voters vote Labour. But Labour doesn't own them: every day it needs to work to win those votes again.
A disgraceful sense of entitlement.
Refusing to be interviewed is cutting your nose off to spite your face,
On topic, Yvette Cooper doesn't need to look further than her kitchen table to find an exceptional strategist with free time on his hands.
https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/burnham-vows-no-favours-sun-newspaper
Labour does identity politics more ruthlessly than anyone else. They slice and dice the electorate into groups that they define and address: if you are black, or gay, or Muslim, or disabled, or whatever Labour takes the view that this single characteristic defines you and what you stand for. If you don't - say you are a poor white male struggling to make ends meet - then you can be ignored.
The Conservatives at least target individuals rather than groups.
They might well use her husband, but to some extent that's fair game. If she was PM do you really think that Ed Balls wouldn't have an influence on her thinking?
Cameron was right when he said about the communities that at best quietly condone terrorism and the 'community leaders' that speak out of both sides of their mouth on extremism. It's not going to be easy but it needs tackling as a matter of priority.
It is quite extraordinary the lengths that public bodies will go to accommodate muslims, and will actively turn a blind eye to the most appalling behavoursa and activities. Islam truly is the 'new black'.
I think Burnham was playing to the Unions rather than to the Scousers. Not least because the Scouse vote is largely in the bag.
Still a stupid move though.
He could take the Sun round the new liverpool. It would be a win for the Sun and a massive win and free publicity for Burnham.
That lasted about a month and then they returned to their former function. I'd be surprised if there were 15 Muslims in the whole building. I had a white convert on my team and everyone crept around trying not to offend him or ever challenge his behaviour/work. Frankly I'd be surprised if he'd be at all bothered but it was front and centre everyday.
It was insidious and unhealthy on so many levels. It is quite extraordinary the lengths that public bodies will go to accommodate muslims, and will actively turn a blind eye to the most appalling behavoursa and activities. Islam truly is the 'new black'.
The omens from the CLP nominations are not good for Liz, but look good for Corbyn. I have topped up on him a bit.
And the old adage about give an inch and take a mile couldnt be more clear. Peoples behaviour changes the more invulnerable they feel to the consequences of their actions. Whether they are bankers, police officers or 'protected groups'.
I'm not disputing he's entitled to do so. It's just bad politics.
Labour is unassailable in Liverpool. The party needs to win over people who read the Sun and vote Conservative or UKIP in places like Swindon or Plymouth.
Stewart Hosie set a new low on Marr. Next time send a can of Irn Bru to do the interview, it will make more sense.
Like Peter Wishart complaining some wee boys called him names.
I suppose that's evil in the sense they didn't vote SNP ? :-)
Hope we all made money on the result
In 1997 the nation voted 43% Labour, 30% Tory, 16% LD. Sun readers 52% Labour, 30% Tory, 12% LD
In 2015 the nation voted 30% Labour, 37% Tory, 13% UKIP. Sun readers 24% Labour, 47% Tory, 19% UKIP
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
The Sun has simply recently backed the winner, the winner has not won because of the Sun
OGH's stand-in for today is Mr. T.....?
Britain's most high-profile children's charity chief was facing fresh pressure last night over an unpaid £700,000 tax bill which was mysteriously waived by the then Chancellor Gordon Brown.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3157634/Mystery-charity-s-unpaid-700-000-tax-bill-Kids-Company-took-money-staff-waived-taxman-Chancellor-Gordon-Brown.html
Labour is unassailable in Liverpool. The party needs to win over people who read the Sun and vote Conservative or UKIP in places like Swindon or Plymouth.
Indeed. There may be more mileage in changing tack and not reinforcing that 'cultural boycott' from the very top, even at the cost of a negligible hit in Liverpool. It's not guaranteed to help any, but it's better than perpetuating something that really needs to be let go already. The Union parties would have argued they were acting in the best interests of everyone, and to the best interests of everyone. Clearly, Scotland no longer accepts that this was achieved, or even if it was the intent, but the argument as presented was different in that the prospect of supporting the SNP at Holyrood being different to supporting them at Westminster, in that they would, quite reasonably, only really care about Scotland, could still be made and be logically consistent. It just wouldn't work, probably.
It's clear the SNP were aware of the concern, and in fairness I think their approach in the GE to turn it around and say 'Yes, we will have an impact...a good one for all nations by being more lefty' was a sound idea. With a less crap Ed M while there might have been fewer on the left outright hoping for an SNP influenced Labour party across the UK, but it might paradoxically actually have resulted in it happening, as the fear side of the equation of Labour being 'dominated' would not have had as much effect. I agree, although there is a bit of a disconnect between what they public say they dislike - bland, youthful, cautious, overly similar professional politicians - and who they tend to end up electing - the same. The type of politician we have been electing, sort of by design has to be a professional identikit party automaton, as they need years of senior political and parliamentary experience before they turn 40, and the professional politicians will have a great advantage there.
Will the Germans really do that if they cannot get another 'big' Euro nation on side? They don't like being isolated I imagine.
Add in the loony leftie Corbyn and we have two liabilities for the party. They may probably be the final two contenders in the vote.
Vote for Leftie or Loony Leftie.
Dumb or Dumber.
Also, this:
She claims she is being forced to leaving because she told Ministers that she has a list of Establishment figures involved in historical child sex abuse
Now, I don't follow this, because first if she has such a list she should just hand it to the police and the government wouldn't touch her for fear of looking like they were punishing her for just that reason. Second, the implication being that Ministers don't want such a list coming out? If true, then surely they wouldn't force her out in case she leaked it. If not true, as I would certainly hope, they'd want her to provide those names to the authorities. Either way, I don't see why they would force her out for having such a list.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11726039/Your-ideal-son-or-daughter-in-law-Anything-but-an-MP-YouGov-poll-reveals.html
In fact Burnham has even higher favourables amongst the public as a whole than Kendall. ORB has him on +14%, Kendall +6%, Cooper -6%, Corbyn -15%
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-andy-burnham-considered-the-contender-most-likely-to-improve-partys-general-election-chances-10340208.html