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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Twitter in the LAB leadership battle the Corbyn campaign has most to be pleased about

Following their entries into the race all four contenders set up dedicated campaign Twitter accounts and the numbers in the chart above show how many followers they have attracted.

Read the full story here

felix

I should say that twitter is especially unreliable for assessing popularity even for these kind of contests. Facebook may be more useful for targeting potential supporters.

Bob__Sykes

I return from a few days away to find the Greeks hell bent on destroying the EU, and the Labour Party not inconceivably about to make Jeremy Corbyn leader.

It's not often I smile on a Monday....

AndyJS

Germany talking about Greece as though it's a developing country:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/618037825368420352

edmundintokyo

AndyJS said:

Germany talking about Greece as though it's a developing country:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/618037825368420352

Seems sensible to plan for a week or two's time.

HYUFD

felix said:

I should say that twitter is especially unreliable for assessing popularity even for these kind of contests. Facebook may be more useful for targeting potential supporters.

I agree Yes would have won about 90% not 45% in indyref if twitter alone had decided the outcome

taffys

Germany talking about Greece as though it's a developing country:

WTF really weird choice of phrase from the Germans

edmundintokyo

All pretty small numbers. They need to start picking fights with famous people.

kle4

AndyJS said:

Germany talking about Greece as though it's a developing country:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/618037825368420352

I'm still expecting a climbdown even from the Germans, which given their rhetoric will be pretty spectacular, so it should be a good one.

HYUFD

A better guide is yougov's ST Labour leadership poll 3 weeks ago, amongst Labour voters that had Burnham ahead of Cooper, Corbyn third and Kendall 4th

Burnham 21%
Cooper 12%
Corbyn 8%
Kendall 5%

https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?page=5

The_Apocalypse

HYUFD said:

felix said:

I should say that twitter is especially unreliable for assessing popularity even for these kind of contests. Facebook may be more useful for targeting potential supporters.

I agree Yes would have won about 90% not 45% in indyref if twitter alone had decided the outcome

If twitter was representative we would have also had a Labour-SNP coalition.

As for Germany's words, I'd imagine they are speaking in anticipation of it all going even more tits up for Greece, when they may not even be able to import food etc in the near future.

AlastairMeeks

Twitter is the home of the empty vessels that make most noise. I'm not sure that there's more to these figures than that.

The_Apocalypse

[From the Guardian]

BREAKING:

Greece will issue a new decree today to extend the bank holiday for a few more days, bankers are telling Reuters.

Scott_P

@lindayueh: As agreed with Merkel, Greek PM Tsipras will present fresh bailout proposals at the European Union summit on Tuesday http://t.co/6RwsU2TWCY

Sandpit

FPT:
On the topic of political betting - the Telegraph have (eventually!) done a wonderful obituary for Ron Pollard, who died last month aged 89. He was the first bookmaker in Britain to offer odds on politics, when with Ladbrokes in the 1960s
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/11719070/Ron-Pollard-odds-maker-obituary.html

Richard_Nabavi

"Cooper and Burnham, meanwhile, appear to be a lot less sure-footed in their messaging. "

Alternatively they are putting their effort into campaigning amongst party members who will actually make the decision.

felix

Scott_P said:

@lindayueh: As agreed with Merkel, Greek PM Tsipras will present fresh bailout proposals at the European Union summit on Tuesday http://t.co/6RwsU2TWCY

That sounds like the mother of all fudges from the wording - this is where Tsipras caves in and basically gets the same offer as the one he persuaded the Greeks to reject.

HYUFD

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

I should say that twitter is especially unreliable for assessing popularity even for these kind of contests. Facebook may be more useful for targeting potential supporters.

I agree Yes would have won about 90% not 45% in indyref if twitter alone had decided the outcome

If twitter was representative we would have also had a Labour-SNP coalition.

As for Germany's words, I'd imagine they are speaking in anticipation of it all going even more tits up for Greece, when they may not even be able to import food etc in the near future.

Agree on both points

SandyRentool

Look out for my feedback from the Newcastle hustings on Sunday afternoon...

felix

Richard_Nabavi said:

"Cooper and Burnham, meanwhile, appear to be a lot less sure-footed in their messaging. "

Alternatively they are putting their effort into campaigning amongst party members who will actually make the decision.

Lol - totally on the ball. tis a pity that others on here put so much reliance on twitter - you'd think they'd have learned by now.

CarlottaVance

Twitter?

Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?

Welcome to the echo chamber.....

Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:

http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

SimonStClare

"But can we read anything into these numbers?"

Not unless these numbers leave the twitterbubble and are reflected in the real world.

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

A better guide is yougov's ST Labour leadership poll 3 weeks ago, amongst Labour voters that had Burnham ahead of Cooper, Corbyn third and Kendall 4th

Burnham 21%
Cooper 12%
Corbyn 8%
Kendall 5%

https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?page=5

That is no guide at all as you know. This polling was simply about name recognition.

MrEd

felix said:

I should say that twitter is especially unreliable for assessing popularity even for these kind of contests. Facebook may be more useful for targeting potential supporters.

Funnily enough, I would have said the opposite - Twitter is totally unreliable for trying to guess the outcome of a General Election as only 12% of the population has it but, in a contest like this which will be decided by the most enthused to vote of what is already a small base, it could be indicative.

saddo

Cameron already summed the answer up many years ago:

Too many twits might make a twat.

Labour doing exactly that.

Pulpstar

SimonStClare said:

"But can we read anything into these numbers?"

Not unless these numbers leave the twitterbubble and are reflected in the real world.

MrEd said:

felix said:

I should say that twitter is especially unreliable for assessing popularity even for these kind of contests. Facebook may be more useful for targeting potential supporters.

Funnily enough, I would have said the opposite - Twitter is totally unreliable for trying to guess the outcome of a General Election as only 12% of the population has it but, in a contest like this which will be decided by the most enthused to vote of what is already a small base, it could be indicative.

The electorate is the Labour party membership, not the general population as is pointed out. The truth could lie closer to the Twittersphere than the odds suggest right now.

We shall as ever, see.

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

A better guide is yougov's ST Labour leadership poll 3 weeks ago, amongst Labour voters that had Burnham ahead of Cooper, Corbyn third and Kendall 4th

Burnham 21%
Cooper 12%
Corbyn 8%
Kendall 5%

https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?page=5

That is no guide at all as you know. This polling was simply about name recognition.

No it was not, Kendall had weeks of publicity before Corbyn entered the race and there is no significant difference in name recognition between Burnham and Cooper

CarlottaVance

Interesting graphic:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJOzIWJWIAA1DLx.jpg:large

Plato

That's great - bookmarked

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting graphic:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJOzIWJWIAA1DLx.jpg:large

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

A better guide is yougov's ST Labour leadership poll 3 weeks ago, amongst Labour voters that had Burnham ahead of Cooper, Corbyn third and Kendall 4th

Burnham 21%
Cooper 12%
Corbyn 8%
Kendall 5%

https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?page=5

That is no guide at all as you know. This polling was simply about name recognition.

No it was not, Kendall had weeks of publicity before Corbyn entered the race and there is no significant difference in name recognition between Burnham and Cooper

Rubbish.

AndyJS

Latest Betfair odds:

Burnham 2.2 / 2.24
Cooper 3.9 / 4.1
Kendall 4.7 / 5
Corbyn 13.5 / 15

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

SimonStClare said:

"But can we read anything into these numbers?"

Not unless these numbers leave the twitterbubble and are reflected in the real world.

MrEd said:

felix said:

I should say that twitter is especially unreliable for assessing popularity even for these kind of contests. Facebook may be more useful for targeting potential supporters.

Funnily enough, I would have said the opposite - Twitter is totally unreliable for trying to guess the outcome of a General Election as only 12% of the population has it but, in a contest like this which will be decided by the most enthused to vote of what is already a small base, it could be indicative.

The electorate is the Labour party membership, not the general population as is pointed out. The truth could lie closer to the Twittersphere than the odds suggest right now.

We shall as ever, see.

The electorate is closer to Labour voters I would suggest than either the Twittersphere or the general population, hence the figures I posted earlier

Danny565

If Corbyn did somehow end up winning, I suspect he would have a panic attack and resign immediately.

Cyclefree

edmundintokyo said:

AndyJS said:

Germany talking about Greece as though it's a developing country:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/618037825368420352

Seems sensible to plan for a week or two's time.

The Germans have some nerve I must say. Is there no-one in Germany who recalls their own economic history in the last 70 years and how much of their success was down to the generosity of others?

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

A better guide is yougov's ST Labour leadership poll 3 weeks ago, amongst Labour voters that had Burnham ahead of Cooper, Corbyn third and Kendall 4th

Burnham 21%
Cooper 12%
Corbyn 8%
Kendall 5%

https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?page=5

That is no guide at all as you know. This polling was simply about name recognition.

No it was not, Kendall had weeks of publicity before Corbyn entered the race and there is no significant difference in name recognition between Burnham and Cooper

Rubbish.

Corbyn has never even held a frontbench post, Kendall was Miliband's Shadow Minister for Older People. Cooper was Shadow Home Secretary, if anything an even higher profile position than Burnham at Shadow Health

The_Apocalypse

If twitter reflected the Labour membership, then in 2010 Labour members would have voted for Ed Miliband, or, given the enthusiasm for Corbyn - the much more left wing Diane Abbott. Many forget the Labour leadership election is under AV - and as such, Corbyn while gaining much support on twitter, in an overall contest will be divisive candidate and thus is not *bland* enough to gain preferences across the party. I'd argue that twitter, and indeed much of online comments' section, simply reflect the very left of the Labour party - people exactly like Corbyn to begin with, who would never vote for someone towards the right of Labour, even if they could win Labour a GE. If these kind of people reflected Labour's membership as a whole, D Miliband and Tony Blair could have never come top out of members' votes.

Danny565

I'm not really convinced the leader accounts are that significant.

In terms of the candidates' personal accounts:

Burnham - 79.7k
Cooper - 69.1k
Corbyn - 49.4k
Kendall - 33.8k

JEO

The piece by John Healey is another perspective from a Labour MP that acknowledges UKIP is a massive problem for them, but refuses to acknowledge that immigration is the underlying cause of the defections. Its funny how people ignore clear polling evidence when that evidence leads to conclusions they don't want to make.

MikeSmithson

Burnham's got form on gender issues. Remember this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/2166631/Andy-Burnham-writes-letter-of-apology-to-Shami-Chakrabarti-for-David-Davis-comments.html

Cyclefree

FPT:

I must say I find the idea that German bankers are models of rectitude by comparison with Greek bankers a bit surprising. In the period leading up the credit crisis German banks behaved dreadfully - frittering away without understanding much of their money on products they did not understand. And as for Deutsche Bank: well, hmm, ethical conduct is not the first thought that comes to mind. Google them to see what they've been up to.

The Greeks may well be feckless. But the Germans have airbrushed out of their memory much of their own economic history and the recent behaviour of their banks.

This is one of those cases where you rather hope that both sides could lose.

Perhaps it is also a day where someone with time on their hands could dig out all those quotes from various Euro-worthies when the euro went live on how this was going to herald everlasting peace and prosperity for all.

I rather thought - though doubtless someone will correct me - that even France and Germany failed to comply with the convergence and other rules needed for euro entry and that the rules were changed to accommodate them.

On topic: if Corbyn comes first or second, it will show that Labour have retreated to a small comfort zone on another planet.

CarlottaVance

Wise words from Gaby Hinsliff: Twitter outrage now moves so fast you're onto the backlash-against-the-backlash-against-the-Thing before 99% of people have seen the Thing

I think '99%" may be on the low side......

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

Latest Betfair odds:

Burnham 2.2 / 2.24
Cooper 3.9 / 4.1
Kendall 4.7 / 5
Corbyn 13.5 / 15

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

Just laid a few pennies of Corbyn at 14.0 and 14.5.

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

Burnham's got form on gender issues. Remember this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/2166631/Andy-Burnham-writes-letter-of-apology-to-Shami-Chakrabarti-for-David-Davis-comments.html

A stupid but jokey comment made in jest, however I don't see what relevance that has to his name recognition?

HYUFD

Danny565 said:

I'm not really convinced the leader accounts are that significant.

In terms of the candidates' personal accounts:

Burnham - 79.7k
Cooper - 69.1k
Corbyn - 49.4k
Kendall - 33.8k

That looks a far more reliable guide and I would not be surprised if that was how the result turned out

Scott_P

CarlottaVance said:

Wise words from Gaby Hinsliff: Twitter outrage now moves so fast you're onto the backlash-against-the-backlash-against-the-Thing before 99% of people have seen the Thing

I think '99%" may be on the low side......

Did you see the Thing? It was outrageous...

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

Burnham's got form on gender issues. Remember this

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/2166631/Andy-Burnham-writes-letter-of-apology-to-Shami-Chakrabarti-for-David-Davis-comments.html

Cameron's 'Calm down dear!' did not do him too much harm

AlastairMeeks

I've come off twitter for the day. I don't follow that many people but all the people I follow seem to want to have their say at length about the Greek referendum. Why they don't gather their thoughts together in a convenient place and in a connected manner (in the old days it used to be known as an article) is beyond me.

AndyJS

The latest from the traitorous pig dog:

https://twitter.com/MarkReckless/status/617807761313779712

Pulpstar

@Edmundintokyo Is it HSBC/First Direct's Regular Saver you've applied for ?

M&S Bank; First Direct paying 6% Gross - Maximums are 250/300/mth. I did the First Direct one in about 2 minutes, the 300 has been deducted already!, and am applying for the M&S one too.

Cyclefree

A depressingly familiar story - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11720000/Cleric-said-to-be-behind-Tunisian-beach-massacre-is-living-in-benefits-in-Britain.html

DavidL

Is there any convincing evidence (that excludes Twitter of course) that Andy Burnham has not already won the election for Labour leader and all we are talking about is the margins? All of the polling (I know, I know) seems to point in this direction and so do the markets (in so far as they are something different).

It does seem to me that Kendall has failed to make a Cameron like break through to the membership. In fact she has picked up a surprising amount of hostility for someone whose positions are so undeveloped.

Corbyn doesn't even seem to want to win. He simply wants his arguments and perspective to be heard for reasons that completely escape me.

Cooper is just stunningly dull. A compromise candidate at the very best and not a very good compromise at that despite probably being the cleverest of the four.

Burnham is really nothing special but he is so far out in front that I think he is out of sight to the peloton and will remain so.

I frankly wish it was more interesting but it just isn't. Maybe, if Ed had stayed on for 6 months as Lord Bragg was referring to this morning and let Labour think about where they wanted to be led before deciding who was doing the leading it might have been better. But I frankly doubt it.

Tissue_Price

Sandpit said:

FPT:
On the topic of political betting - the Telegraph have (eventually!) done a wonderful obituary for Ron Pollard, who died last month aged 89. He was the first bookmaker in Britain to offer odds on politics, when with Ladbrokes in the 1960s
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/11719070/Ron-Pollard-odds-maker-obituary.html

Thanks for that - before my time but clearly a great character. I note Ladbrokes didn't advertise how much money they won in 1964, but it must have been a lot!

Disraeli

"Unite back Jeremy Corbyn to be Labour leader – with Andy Burnham as second preference"

http://labourlist.org/2015/07/unite-back-jeremy-corbyn-to-be-labour-leader-with-andy-burnham-as-second-preference/

How much does this help/hinder Corbyn I wonder?

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

So, the Germans are acting like a dominatrix with PMS.

john_zims

@felix

'I should say that twitter is especially unreliable for assessing popularity'

According to Twitter Labour's election landslide was nailed on two months ago.

Disraeli

DavidL said:

Is there any convincing evidence (that excludes Twitter of course) that Andy Burnham has not already won the election for Labour leader and all we are talking about is the margins? All of the polling (I know, I know) seems to point in this direction and so do the markets (in so far as they are something different).

Didn't Henry G make a good case for Yvette in a thread write-up recently?
IIRC, Burnham would win the first round but second preferences would break for Cooper.

It would be AV wot won it.

TGOHF

Kendall coming 4th would be as bad a blow for Labour as Corbyn winning.

Tissue_Price

Disraeli said:

"Unite back Jeremy Corbyn to be Labour leader – with Andy Burnham as second preference"

http://labourlist.org/2015/07/unite-back-jeremy-corbyn-to-be-labour-leader-with-andy-burnham-as-second-preference/

How much does this help/hinder Corbyn I wonder?

It looks like a plan to help Burnham by recruiting more of their members to the contest, ostensibly for Corbyn.

Tissue_Price

TGOHF said:

Kendall coming 4th would be as bad a blow for Labour as Corbyn winning.

Kendall & Corbyn have both been shortening in recent days, which seems on the face of it to be incompatible with logic.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Price, why's it illogical?

Pulpstar

Tissue_Price said:

TGOHF said:

Kendall coming 4th would be as bad a blow for Labour as Corbyn winning.

Kendall & Corbyn have both been shortening in recent days, which seems on the face of it to be incompatible with logic.

Andy & Yvette possibly both value even though they're the shorties in the race now ^_~

MarkHopkins

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Price, why's it illogical?

Presumably because both are unlikely to win.

SandyRentool

Tissue_Price said:

Disraeli said:

"Unite back Jeremy Corbyn to be Labour leader – with Andy Burnham as second preference"

http://labourlist.org/2015/07/unite-back-jeremy-corbyn-to-be-labour-leader-with-andy-burnham-as-second-preference/

How much does this help/hinder Corbyn I wonder?

It looks like a plan to help Burnham by recruiting more of their members to the contest, ostensibly for Corbyn.

As soon as Corbyn declared I thought it was good news for Burnham as the likely 2nd pref candidate of Corbyn supporters who otherwise wouldn't have bothered voting.

David_Evershed

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?

Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?

Welcome to the echo chamber.....

Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:

http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

Danny565

DavidL said:

Is there any convincing evidence (that excludes Twitter of course) that Andy Burnham has not already won the election for Labour leader and all we are talking about is the margins? All of the polling (I know, I know) seems to point in this direction and so do the markets (in so far as they are something different).

Cooper is running Burnham reasonably close in nominations from local parties. Both are miles ahead of the other two, though.

MikeSmithson

There has been no published polling of LAB members or other able to vote in this election so there is no real guide.

TGOHF said:

Kendall coming 4th would be as bad a blow for Labour as Corbyn winning.

Kendall coming anything other than first would be a bad blow for Labour.

Innocent_Abroad

MikeSmithson said:

There has been no published polling of LAB members or other able to vote in this election so there is no real guide.

TGOHF said:

Kendall coming 4th would be as bad a blow for Labour as Corbyn winning.

Kendall coming anything other than first would be a bad blow for Labour.

No. Labour has no future as Tory-lite (or even UKIP-lite). The heart of the left is in campaigning against injustice, not in the pursuit of office.

TOPPING

Good leader in the Times today which, for those without a sub, says that all candidates are in denial, are talking to themselves, and are blaming the electorate.

Tissue_Price

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Price, why's it illogical?

Because the electorate might turn out to be more left-wing than we think or more right-wing. But not both.

Of course there are other, more logical, explanations available, like the more centrist contenders both being uninspiring.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Price, that was what I was thinking (Cooper/Burnham being a bit rubbish).

Plato

I loved the analogy of *turning the Labour Machine off and on again*

TOPPING said:

Good leader in the Times today which, for those without a sub, says that all candidates are in denial, are talking to themselves, and are blaming the electorate.

Richard_Tyndall

Cyclefree said:

FPT:

I must say I find the idea that German bankers are models of rectitude by comparison with Greek bankers a bit surprising. In the period leading up the credit crisis German banks behaved dreadfully - frittering away without understanding much of their money on products they did not understand. And as for Deutsche Bank: well, hmm, ethical conduct is not the first thought that comes to mind. Google them to see what they've been up to.

The Greeks may well be feckless. But the Germans have airbrushed out of their memory much of their own economic history and the recent behaviour of their banks.

Indeed. As recently as 1990 Germany defaulted on its wartime reparations.

eek

MikeSmithson said:

There has been no published polling of LAB members or other able to vote in this election so there is no real guide.

TGOHF said:

Kendall coming 4th would be as bad a blow for Labour as Corbyn winning.

Kendall coming anything other than first would be a bad blow for Labour.

I hope Kendall will come first, however I expect her to be the first one knocked out....

I'm starting to think that Corbyn could win it....

eek

David_Evershed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?

Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?

Welcome to the echo chamber.....

Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:

http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

Cars are usually sold on fixed interest rates many of which will be at subsidised low rates...

felix

Danny565 said:

If Corbyn did somehow end up winning, I suspect he would have a panic attack and resign immediately.

Lol - and I should think most sensible supporters would be relieved.

Innocent_Abroad said:

MikeSmithson said:

There has been no published polling of LAB members or other able to vote in this election so there is no real guide.

TGOHF said:

Kendall coming 4th would be as bad a blow for Labour as Corbyn winning.

Kendall coming anything other than first would be a bad blow for Labour.

No. Labour has no future as Tory-lite (or even UKIP-lite). The heart of the left is in campaigning against injustice, not in the pursuit of office.

Wow - just wow! I do so hope you are right. That is also the Tim Farron approach for the LDs..

It is great news for the Tories. Happy days.

eek

Tissue_Price said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Price, why's it illogical?

Because the electorate might turn out to be more left-wing than we think or more right-wing. But not both.

Of course there are other, more logical, explanations available, like the more centrist contenders both being uninspiring.

I am a "labour supporter" just to ensure I can get a say in the leadership even though if I'm honest I'm a lib dem at heart..

The only way I could vote for one of the centrist options would be to hold my nose.... I don't think either of them offer anything to the general public...

Corbyn and Kendall are not outstanding candidates but at least they offer something different to no policy, more of the same....

Pulpstar

eek said:

Tissue_Price said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Price, why's it illogical?

Because the electorate might turn out to be more left-wing than we think or more right-wing. But not both.

Of course there are other, more logical, explanations available, like the more centrist contenders both being uninspiring.

I am a "labour supporter" just to ensure I can get a say in the leadership even though if I'm honest I'm a lib dem at heart..

The only way I could vote for one of the centrist options would be to hold my nose.... I don't think either of them offer anything to the general public...

Corbyn and Kendall are not outstanding candidates but at least they offer something different to no policy, more of the same....

You feel that Lamb/Farron are sufficiently close/ equally good/bad to not bother with that contest ?

Tissue_Price

eek said:

Tissue_Price said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Price, why's it illogical?

Because the electorate might turn out to be more left-wing than we think or more right-wing. But not both.

Of course there are other, more logical, explanations available, like the more centrist contenders both being uninspiring.

I am a "labour supporter" just to ensure I can get a say in the leadership even though if I'm honest I'm a lib dem at heart..

The only way I could vote for one of the centrist options would be to hold my nose.... I don't think either of them offer anything to the general public...

Corbyn and Kendall are not outstanding candidates but at least they offer something different to no policy, more of the same....

So you might vote "1. Corbyn 2. Kendall", or vice versa? That's intriguing, though I don't know how many fellow travellers you will have.

Pulpstar

In George's upcoming budget:

+IHT Cut; End of rent subsidies for people on 30k+ in social housing. I mean really !

-That ludicrous "right to buy" scheme.

Any more for any more ?

AndreaParma_82

CLPs nominations I managed to track so far

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14fJtyTh2RTSJdobOwYcU8-GQhFIsc1TYy86y369QdXc/edit#gid=0

Plato

Benefit cap £23k in London, £20k elsewhere

Pulpstar said:

In George's upcoming budget:

+IHT Cut; End of rent subsidies for people on 30k+ in social housing. I mean really !

-That ludicrous "right to buy" scheme.

Any more for any more ?

Flightpathl

David_Evershed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?
Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?
Welcome to the echo chamber.....
Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:
http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

We are producing an ever increasing number of cars ourselves ... mostly for export.

Disraeli

EU official: Migrant boats also carrying IS fighters

"BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union's top prosecutor said Monday she has been told that smugglers' boats bringing migrants across the Mediterranean to Europe are also carrying Islamic State group fighters.
...

Coninsx said the agency's coordination efforts are ongoing and she couldn't divulge what information EU nations had provided.

She told The Associated Press it isn't yet clear what problem the reported infiltration of Islamic militants may pose for European law enforcement. But she said groups like Islamic State are also using proceeds from people trafficking to fund terrorism."

Full report here:
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/29599fc513b8443085e63c60fbf11c3c/eu-official-terrorists-could-cross-mediterranean-europe

Richard_Tyndall

Flightpathl said:

David_Evershed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?
Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?
Welcome to the echo chamber.....
Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:
http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

We are producing an ever increasing number of cars ourselves ... mostly for export.

True and that is great but the point still remains that unfortunately we import twice as many cars as we export and that UK production only accounted for 380,000 vehicles out of the 2.5 million bought in 2014.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Disraeli, that's rather unsurprising, and one more reason it's crackers to go looking for them, land them in Italy, and give them free travel across half the continent, with meals and shelter provided on the doorstep of Calais.

No wonder they're coming over.

Plato

Depressingly unsurprising. Hiding in plain sight.

Disraeli said:

EU official: Migrant boats also carrying IS fighters

"BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union's top prosecutor said Monday she has been told that smugglers' boats bringing migrants across the Mediterranean to Europe are also carrying Islamic State group fighters.
...

Coninsx said the agency's coordination efforts are ongoing and she couldn't divulge what information EU nations had provided.

She told The Associated Press it isn't yet clear what problem the reported infiltration of Islamic militants may pose for European law enforcement. But she said groups like Islamic State are also using proceeds from people trafficking to fund terrorism."

Full report here:
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/29599fc513b8443085e63c60fbf11c3c/eu-official-terrorists-could-cross-mediterranean-europe

felix

Disraeli said:

EU official: Migrant boats also carrying IS fighters

"BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union's top prosecutor said Monday she has been told that smugglers' boats bringing migrants across the Mediterranean to Europe are also carrying Islamic State group fighters.
...

Coninsx said the agency's coordination efforts are ongoing and she couldn't divulge what information EU nations had provided.

She told The Associated Press it isn't yet clear what problem the reported infiltration of Islamic militants may pose for European law enforcement. But she said groups like Islamic State are also using proceeds from people trafficking to fund terrorism."

Full report here:
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/29599fc513b8443085e63c60fbf11c3c/eu-official-terrorists-could-cross-mediterranean-europe

I'm shocked - someone tell Mr Farron so he can make an even bigger a*** of himself with another article in the Guardian.

Richard_Tyndall

I say again I am very impressed with the Government reaction to the Greece crisis. Osborne is setting exactly the right tone and they are also doing practical things and giving the right advice to help Britons either living in or travelling to Greece.

JonCisBack

The new Greek Finance Minister's name is an anagram of "Kosta Lotsa"...

I'll get my coat

El_Sid

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flightpathl said:

David_Evershed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?
Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?
Welcome to the echo chamber.....
Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:
http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

We are producing an ever increasing number of cars ourselves ... mostly for export.

True and that is great but the point still remains that unfortunately we import twice as many cars as we export and that UK production only accounted for 380,000 vehicles out of the 2.5 million bought in 2014.

But average import is worth £13k and average export is worth £21k, so net effect in money terms is a small net surplus. You also have to consider the whole supply chain - we may only make 1.6m finished cars, but we make ~2.5m engines for instance.

El_Sid

Going back to the Twitter accounts - interesting that the two left wingers are "4" leader, but the others use English.

Disraeli

Richard_Tyndall said:

I say again I am very impressed with the Government reaction to the Greece crisis. Osborne is setting exactly the right tone and they are also doing practical things and giving the right advice to help Britons either living in or travelling to Greece.

... and right on cue to strengthen your argument.

"UK Chancellor George Osborne says the UK government is "urging all sides to have a final go at defusing the crisis" in Greece. Addressing Parliament, the UK finance minister said the deteriorating situation in Greece meant growing risks for the UK.

The 2,000 British pensioners living in Greece have been given advice on setting up a British bank account, he said. Their pension payments will continue in the usual way, he said.

More British consular staff are being deployed to Greece and travellers are advised to take sufficient cash and prescription medicines on their Greek holidays, he said. "

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-33382332

Morris_Dancer

El Sid, one criticism of Wimbledon2Day is the appalling grammar.

I wonder if Murder Incorporated happened today if it'd be called Killing4U.

JonCisBack

El_Sid said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flightpathl said:

David_Evershed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?
Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?
Welcome to the echo chamber.....
Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:
http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

We are producing an ever increasing number of cars ourselves ... mostly for export.

True and that is great but the point still remains that unfortunately we import twice as many cars as we export and that UK production only accounted for 380,000 vehicles out of the 2.5 million bought in 2014.

But average import is worth £13k and average export is worth £21k, so net effect in money terms is a small net surplus. You also have to consider the whole supply chain - we may only make 1.6m finished cars, but we make ~2.5m engines for instance.

And many other car parts.

Our car production in this country has gone up an extraordinary amount in recent years and it is a success story. Most European countries make very few or no cars, whereas more Nissans are made in Sunderland than cars of any kind in Italy.

If it wasn't for the fact that we are as car buyers possibly the least nationalistic when we make our choice - How else to explain the high share of Fiats in Italy, Citroens in France etc - Rover would have survived if Brits had been of similar mind.

DecrepitJohnL

Flightpathl said:

David_Evershed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?
Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?
Welcome to the echo chamber.....
Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:
http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

We are producing an ever increasing number of cars ourselves ... mostly for export.

Top Gear did a feature on it and drove all British built vehicles up The Mall.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmcmqTAu6b8

That was before the Tory-run BBC sacked Jeremy Clarkson, of course.

Pulpstar

Disraeli said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I say again I am very impressed with the Government reaction to the Greece crisis. Osborne is setting exactly the right tone and they are also doing practical things and giving the right advice to help Britons either living in or travelling to Greece.

... and right on cue to strengthen your argument.

"UK Chancellor George Osborne says the UK government is "urging all sides to have a final go at defusing the crisis" in Greece. Addressing Parliament, the UK finance minister said the deteriorating situation in Greece meant growing risks for the UK.

The 2,000 British pensioners living in Greece have been given advice on setting up a British bank account, he said. Their pension payments will continue in the usual way, he said.

More British consular staff are being deployed to Greece and travellers are advised to take sufficient cash and prescription medicines on their Greek holidays, he said. "

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-33382332

The crisis needs to be turned into a Drachma - it can then be defused. Fudging and can kicking just won't do.

Flightpathl

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flightpathl said:

David_Evershed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?
Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?
Welcome to the echo chamber.....
Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:
http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

We are producing an ever increasing number of cars ourselves ... mostly for export.

True and that is great but the point still remains that unfortunately we import twice as many cars as we export and that UK production only accounted for 380,000 vehicles out of the 2.5 million bought in 2014.

More than £7 billion of investment into UK production facilities has been announced in the past two or 3 years years. Exports by value doubled over a decade.
But maybe we should be more interested in things like 3D printing, something which might eliminate exports altogether (??).

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

There has been no published polling of LAB members or other able to vote in this election so there is no real guide.

TGOHF said:

Kendall coming 4th would be as bad a blow for Labour as Corbyn winning.

Kendall coming anything other than first would be a bad blow for Labour.

Ken Clarke came last in 2005 in the Tory leadership contest, he was the most centrist candidate, the Tories still won in 2010.

DecrepitJohnL

Flightpathl said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flightpathl said:

David_Evershed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?
Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?
Welcome to the echo chamber.....
Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:
http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

We are producing an ever increasing number of cars ourselves ... mostly for export.

True and that is great but the point still remains that unfortunately we import twice as many cars as we export and that UK production only accounted for 380,000 vehicles out of the 2.5 million bought in 2014.

More than £7 billion of investment into UK production facilities has been announced in the past two or 3 years years. Exports by value doubled over a decade.
But maybe we should be more interested in things like 3D printing, something which might eliminate exports altogether (??).

Ironically, it looks like the 1970s union dinosaurs were right -- what the industry needed was more investment and better (in this case, foreign) management.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. HYUFD, I think the claim Clarke's more centrist than Cameron (especially in 2005 during the leadership contest) is very debatable. Joining the euro is not a centrist position.

Pulpstar

Flightpathl said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flightpathl said:

David_Evershed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Twitter?
Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish independence with PM Miliband?
Welcome to the echo chamber.....
Meanwhile, in more cheerful news:
http://news.sky.com/story/1514224/new-uk-car-sales-hit-record-high-in-june

Record car sales is surely bad for the UK economy when five out of six new cars are imported and increased private borrowing to buy cars is dangerous when interest rates are likely to rise from their record low.

We are producing an ever increasing number of cars ourselves ... mostly for export.

True and that is great but the point still remains that unfortunately we import twice as many cars as we export and that UK production only accounted for 380,000 vehicles out of the 2.5 million bought in 2014.

More than £7 billion of investment into UK production facilities has been announced in the past two or 3 years years. Exports by value doubled over a decade.
But maybe we should be more interested in things like 3D printing, something which might eliminate exports altogether (??).

Why would we want to errm... eliminate exports ?
HMRC sometimes don't seem too happy about the inevitable VAT reclaimations though ^^;

It's a good reason why Greece needs to be sorted out properly - and by that I can only see Grexit being the means, the weak Euro/strong pound is killing exporters.