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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 2nd 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 2nd 2015
Grantham, Barrowby on Lincolnshire (Con defence)
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 36, United Kingdom Independence Party 16, Labour 12, Lincolnshire Independents 8, Liberal Democrats 3, Independents 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2013):
0
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Keep an eye on the UKIP score in Lincolnshire, I need to know if I should write them off because a single local council result or declare the revolution is here because of the same.
Oh, and some hilarity:
Anybody who calls me corrupt because Fifa is corrupt, I can only shake my head," Sepp Blatter said.
I guess he's sticking with that 'I cannot keep an eye on everyone' defence, where incompetence is a reason you should stay in your job for some reason.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/33361709
*Edit* Amazed to beat Sunil to a train gag :-)
There's a belief that the terrorists now go for places where there's a lot of Western holidaymakers.
Since these days western tourists don't go much to Egypt or Tunisia, Spain is seen as the higher risk.
I think it is the Foreign Office being over cautious.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/02/politics/jim-webb-2016-president-announcement/index.html
Labour and Tories Parties (though not Zac) being in favour of Heathrow expansion will depress their vote - so a big Lab tactical vote for LibDem and possibly some Tories. UKIP and independent will get very little support.
LibDems energised with a big GOTV operation. Tories a bit complacent.
My guess is still a Tory win but a good LibDem result;
Con 44% (-6%)
LibDem 34% (+16%)
Lab 7% (-7%)
Grn 15% (-4%)
UKIP 1% (+1%)
Ind 0%
After a few hours canvassing in what should be prime Kendall territory, I'm pretty much ready to predict this: Liz Kendall will come last
Harry Thompson @HMThompson_ 1h1 hour ago
been thinking it for a while, but calling up a middle class area and having her come dead last confirms it in my mind!
It will be interesting to see whether the Tories in Hampton Wick who bother to vote give credit for that or some take the opportunity to vote LibDem to send a message to the Government.
Not many, that is why Kendall will come last.
"Certainly not!" she said. "It would breach our licensing conditions to have non-guests sitting in the premises."
"But we don't need to drink anything..."
"No!"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/former-sen-jim-webb-d-va-appears-to-defend-confederate-flag/2015/06/24/ed0d162c-1a99-11e5-ab92-c75ae6ab94b5_story.html
I got to Arnos Grove (Piccadilly) tube station one night just as an IRA bomb warning was announced.
All passengers were escorted through the station car park by LU staff.
A couple of minutes later there was an enourmous bang. A car bomb had been exploded.
The same car that we had all just filed past in the station car park....
I'm off to bed, but Labour (Blair) achieved huge social and constitutional change during his time in office, as well as hugely ramping up spending. Tax credits, the social chapter and the minimum wage all hinged off his Labour led governments as well.
Most of it (almost all of it) I didn't like, and even less the way he did it, but I'd strongly contest it was just Thatcherism with a human face. There was plenty of radicalism there.
There is much alarm in fairly aware circles that IS is about to, yet again, do something that is going get themselves noticed within the next 48-72 hours. the US is worried about something around 4th July weekend, various regimes in the Middle East are concerned about something on their territories and the Europeans are just worried.
Seems though no-one quite knows but a lot of head sheds think something notable is coming.
Russell Brand blames the British government for Tunisian beach massacre and denounces minute's silence for the dead as 'total bulls***'... as bodies of nine more victims return home to the UK
Russell Brand said UK foreign policy was to blame for Tunisian massacre which claimed the lives of 38 tourists
Comedian denounced tomorrow's minute's silence as 'total bulls***', saying it was an 'empty, hollow gesture'
He blamed Britain's policy of selling arms abroad, military interventions and bombing campaigns overseas
Nine of the 30 British victims of the Sousse terror attack arrived home today after being flown back to the UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3147144/Russell-Brand-blames-UK-government-Tunisian-beach-massacre.html#ixzz3em4pjBiv
An Israeli acquaintance of mine narrowly was once a few minutes late one his way to a café. A suicide bomber blew the place up before he got there.
The point he reiterated to me throughout his retelling of the anecdote was that pretty much everyone in Israel had some experience of this - it may not have been their close call (or worse), but a colleague, friend or family member... this has a pretty stiffening effect on the public body politic, and makes the "we are all just misunderstanding the Palestinians, they just want peace like us" camp appear naïve and frankly unelectable, regardless of the strengths or insights of their position.
- Introduced the National Minimum Wage and raised it
- Record number of students in higher education - the 50% goal
- Written off up to 100 per cent of debt owed by poorest countries
- Delivered 2,200 Sure Start Children's Centres.
- Extended equality for Women and Gay people and introduced the Equality and Human Rights Commission.
- Restored devolved power to Northern Ireland.
- Banned fox hunting
- Human Rights Act incorporated ECHR rights into UK law
- Took the setting of interest rates out of party politics by giving power to BoE
Failures:
- Borrowed too much
- Botched devolution
- Botched House of Lords reform
- Illegal Wars
- Being at the "heart of Europe" - just got ignored as usual, and gave away half the rebate on a promise to reform CAP that was never kept.
PS Thank You for your kind wishes. You may wish to revise your view some time in the future if we get entangled in . . . err . . . "vigorous debate"! :-)
Greece is sliding into a full-blown national crisis as the final cash reserves of the banking system evaporate by the hour and swathes of industry start to shut down, precipitating the near disintegration of the ruling coalition.
Business leaders have been locked in talks with the Bank of Greece, pleading for the immediate release of emergency liquidity funds (ELA) to cover food imports and pharmaceutical goods before the tourist sector hits a brick wall.
Officials say the central bank will release the funds as soon as Friday, but this is a stop-gap measure at best. "We are on a war footing in this country," said Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11714655/Greek-banks-down-to-500m-in-cash-reserves-as-economy-crashes.html
What I find staggeringly incomprehensible is that the SYRIZA government is making no plans for a move to the New Drachma.
The insistence that the troika will just blink is deluded.
The "we can't be chucked out of the Euro" argument is bogus, because Greece will need to leave the Euro to pay its bills.
No Probably not , hard to keep something like that secret but in this absolute chaos I would believe anything
illegal financial transfers from the ECB ?? What's that all about and who is investigating that? I have even seen some comments that China is going to cough up the owed amounts.
What an absolute , catastrophic mess
Lib Dem 1189
Con 1081
Green 234
Lab 185
UKIP 69
From Vote UK Forum
"The Lib Dems have selected school governor Geraldine Locke, who only joined the party last month."
http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/
Perhaps it's slipped down the back of the chaise longue ?
Wick is the same Wick as in Hackney Wick - means a village
LibDem 43% (+25%)
Con 39% (-13%)
Green 9% (-10%)
Lab 7% (-7%)
UKIP 2% (+2%)
Ind 0%
I said prepare for a surprise!
My prediction downthread was:
LibDem 34% (+16%)
Con 44% (-6%)
Green 15% (-4%)
Lab 7% (-7%)
UKIP 1% (+1%)
Ind 0%
I got the trends right but not the magnitude.
The LibDems are back in business.
Based on a by-election win,that's optimism.
A Montana man said Wednesday that he was inspired by last week's U.S. Supreme Court decision legalizing gay marriage to apply for a marriage license so that he can legally wed his second wife.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/polygamous-montana-trio-applies-for-wedding-license/
USA seeks extradition of 7 FIFA executives arrested last month.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NDjt4FzFWY
Me? I don't think the State should have any role in marriage at all. I disagree with the concept of the licence itself, not the straight, gay or polygamy bits.