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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ipsos Mori issues index for June

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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    john_zims said:

    @Disreali

    'Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Sudan, Eritrea, Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Somalia. That's for a start.
    [snip]
    What's the point in allowing immigration to continue from such high risk countries both in terms of terrorist threat and other criminal behavior.

    For one thing, the NHS relies on them.
    "Thinktank warns stricter immigration rules could hit service after stats show 11% of all staff and 26% of doctors are non-British "
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/26/nhs-foreign-nationals-immigration-health-service

    Typically a lot of these doctors come from Pakistan. For example in 2012, Pakistan provided more overseas doctors to the NHS than any country excpet India.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2407585/NHS-recruits-thousands-doctors-Third-World--limits-places-deny-British-students-chance-study-medicine.html

    Before accusing me of playing the racism card, consider that I may be playing an entirely different card - "Genuine concern" - and on many levels.
    1) It is not right to condemn an entire country or culture for a few nutters within it
    2) Practically, it will incense anyone of Pakistani origin (for example) to be told that the decent family that they know and love is from a failed society, and by implication inferior. They will express this irritation at the very least by being determined to vote against those who would bring in restrictive immigration rules critical of their heritage.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,760
    AC struggling to cope at work, thermometer on my desk says 28 degrees C!
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Disraeli said:

    john_zims said:

    @Disreali

    'Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Sudan, Eritrea, Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Somalia. That's for a start.
    [snip]
    What's the point in allowing immigration to continue from such high risk countries both in terms of terrorist threat and other criminal behavior.

    For one thing, the NHS relies on them.
    "Thinktank warns stricter immigration rules could hit service after stats show 11% of all staff and 26% of doctors are non-British "
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/26/nhs-foreign-nationals-immigration-health-service

    Typically a lot of these doctors come from Pakistan. For example in 2012, Pakistan provided more overseas doctors to the NHS than any country excpet India.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2407585/NHS-recruits-thousands-doctors-Third-World--limits-places-deny-British-students-chance-study-medicine.html

    Before accusing me of playing the racism card, consider that I may be playing an entirely different card - "Genuine concern" - and on many levels.
    1) It is not right to condemn an entire country or culture for a few nutters within it
    2) Practically, it will incense anyone of Pakistani origin (for example) to be told that the decent family that they know and love is from a failed society, and by implication inferior. They will express this irritation at the very least by being determined to vote against those who would bring in restrictive immigration rules critical of their heritage.
    Yes, but Pakistan is a failing state and does not have control of its borders and often its interior (Home of bin Laden). That is why many of its educated people come to live in the west, where usually they are more secure.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Some PBers might want to take their blood-pressure pills before clicking on this link:

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/01/hillary-clinton-lobbied-by-cherie-blair-qatari-royal-emails

    We all know that the Blairs will do almost anything if money (and lots of it) is involved.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,037

    Looks like the Greek farce is entering a new and even more farcical phase, with the Eurozone leaders (who were aghast at Tsipras calling the referendum) now keen for it to go ahead, and Tsipras reportedly thinking of cancelling it:

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/01/greek-debt-crisis-creditors-consider-next-moves-after-imf-default-live

    If the referendum goes ahead and the vote is for YES, then the EU has won, game set and match.

    If the vote is for NO, then the EU loses more than the Greeks - they have more at stake in a bigger game - at least that is what the Greeks think.

    If the EU concede a bit before the referendum and the referendum is called off, then the EU wins everything except a bit and the Greeks win just a bit.

    The only big losing position for the EU is if it does not concede a bit and the vote is NO. Then the EU loses a lot when it could have lost only a bit.

    You can lay this out in a 2x2 game.

    The value of knowing in advance what the referendum result is is enormous. No doubt the players are conducting polls but keeping the results to themselves.

    However, from Tsipras actions you can infer that they show a decisive YES result which is why he is asking for a figleaf and the EU is refusing. The odds on Betfair implies that Greece won't exit the Eurozone and that implies that Tsipras will capitulate and cancel the referendum (rather than it goes ahead and there is a NO vote).

    Given Tsipras's strategy up to now, he will leave his capitulation until the last moment in the hope that the polls turn in his favour (in which case the EU will concede a bit to get the referendum cancelled.) But it is likely to all happen in a rush at the end, and accidents can happen.

    If the EU want to de-risk this, they should give him his figleaf and not be driven by an emotional desire to crush him.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth 7 mins7 minutes ago

    When someone as well connected to Syriza as @paulmasonnews writes this http://bit.ly/1FQX9ui , u know a big climb down is coming from Athens
    3 retweets 0 favorites


    Will his party allow him to climb down?
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth 7 mins7 minutes ago

    When someone as well connected to Syriza as @paulmasonnews writes this http://bit.ly/1FQX9ui , u know a big climb down is coming from Athens
    3 retweets 0 favorites
    Will his party allow him to climb down?

    The Times is leading with ...
    ''Greece has blinked after Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister, wrote to the eurozone and IMF accepting an austerity ultimatum from the country’s international creditors as the basis for new talks. The move last night is major climbdown for the left-wing Greek leader and could signal the postponement of Sunday’s referendum or a his Syriza party doing a U-turn and calling for a “yes” vote. In a two-page letter Mr Tsipras accepted a draft “staff level agreement” that was tabled last Friday, however he is still holding out on contentious Greek demands to soften the blow of pension cuts and VAT increases for the Aegean islands. ...''
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