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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ipsos Mori issues index for June
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ipsos Mori issues index for June
The big risers are Immigration/Immigrants and EU/Europe, which seems understandable given the focus on the EU referendum since the election. The big faller is the economy, which maybe confirmation of the fifteen year high in consumer confidence that the pollster GfK found yesterday.
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As mentioned, the changes seem sensible. Concern about the NHS has gone down after the election, and now Labour have stopped claiming the NHS is about to die/be cut up/be abolished; immigration has increased with the pressures caused by people coming across the Med.
The rise in the EU's score means people can no longer claim that concern about the EU is at the bottom of the list
But I'm still at the stage where I take anything from pollsters at the moment with a pinch of salt, even this series of polls.
Clever politic? Merkel by deferring a decision until after the Greferendum allows the Greeks to get a taste of what hey might face if they vote no ..... And it might be just working?
Reuters July 1st
"A majority of Greeks would vote No to the terms of a proposed bailout deal by foreign lenders but the lead narrowed significantly after banks were closed this week, according to an opinion poll published on Wednesday.
The poll, by the ProRata institute published in the Efimerida ton Syntatkton newspaper, showed 54 percent of those planning to vote would oppose the bailout against 33 percent in favor. However a breakdown of results between those polled before and after Sunday's decision to close the banks and impose capital controls showed the gap narrowing."
Even if the Greeks vote yes its an elastoplast at best. They still won't be give any more money than the bare minimum needed to pay their creditors and have no real chance of fixing their economy. As I quoted before.. Greeks that have not yet been born will grow up in a wrecked economy in which they have no part in the making, they will largely not get any jobs when the leave school, and their resentment will fester. This doesn't sound like the way for a new united states of Europe to be born, it sounds like a recipe for conflict.
If the Greeks stay in now, I would except an even more fruitcakey party to get elected after a few years of some "conservative" party failing to fix the economy like the last one didn't, as the people despair. Podemas is massively more fruitcakey than SYRIZA so there is definitely precedent.
Everything is actually working out just as planned for the Euro-elite. The reason economic union happened was a driver to political union. When the various economic crisis have occurred the answer was always more consolidation, more centralisation, more common policies.
This is again exactly what we see this time, the Commission is busy telling any national leader that will listen that the answer to the Greek problem, and any future similar problems is a transfer union, a euro-treasury, and the commission having approval on national budgets. Indeed this was the main message in the "five presidents" document published a couple of weeks ago.
Does anyone outside Brussels seriously think there is an appetite in any of the northern European countries for a transfer union ? What happens when the cash strapped southern countries start moving in that direction and outvote the northern countries in QMV ?
Most important issue:
Personal Finances: 17
NHS: 17
Economy: 15
Immigration: 12
Poverty: 9
Low Pay: 7
Unemployment: 6
FREEDOM!!*: 6 (* technically, "Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Consitutional Reform/devolution)
It may of course be one of the drivers for immigration concern. If the two become closely linked in peoples minds there will be trouble.
If the Greeks stay in now, I would except an even more fruitcakey party to get elected after a few years of some "conservative" party failing to fix the economy like the last one didn't, as the people despair. Podemas is massively more fruitcakey than SYRIZA so there is definitely precedent.
Do you know, Indigo, the more often you quote it, the truer it gets and the more the rest of us admire your enormous brain...
Presumably the Greeks will all emigrate (possibly to Scotland) which will at least provide some space for the African boat people...
(I didn't get enough sleep last night. It shows, doesn't it?)
Most important issue: (total base)
Immigration: 44 (26)
EU: 14 (6)
NHS : 13 (12)
Economy: 7 (13)
Unemployment: 7 (5)
Personal Finances: 4 (9)
Immigration should have been split into: people from the EU and people from the ROW. There should be an opportunity to name (unprompted) countries within the EU.
Perhaps benefits for immigrants should have been another question.
The ECHR should have been a separate question as many people conflate it with the EU.
Then the results may be very different.
I feel that in the referendum, economic common sense may just prevail.
Yes I know I'm not counting incidents stopped by the Police/Security Services while still just plots but that's their jobs and stopping them is surely equivalent to feeding the dog in your analogy.
Responses to 'Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism' total 2% - with the Welsh most worried at 8%
However atrocious Tunisia was, and the next outrage will be, voters may know that for all the horror we are individually at extremely small risk - and crossing the road, or going downstairs remain substantially more dangerous.....
It's time for a LESBIAN Peppa Pig: Lib Dem leadership hopeful says gay children's TV characters should 'not be out of bounds'. Norman Lamb has backed gay characters in children's TV programmes
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3144964/It-s-time-LESBIAN-Peppa-Pig-Lib-Dem-leadership-hopeful-says-gay-children-s-TV-characters-not-bounds.html#ixzz3ecVujRMV
I think those who think every problem is really caused by these mysterious Eurocrats probably edge it.
That's a lot of stopping-a-horror. That we haven't had anything recently more deadly than the vile killing of Lee Rigby is a source of encouraging surprise from me. I keep my fingers crossed.
I expect the people have more sense than our political masters and see terrorism as an immigration issue.
I do wonder how the Greeks will vote. And, if it's No, what will really happen.
It would be an interesting exercise for them to go back to the panel and ask more detailled questions on say the top half a dozen responses to this survey afterwards, to get more information on why the top issues are the top issues.
Heathrow - just get on with it, and start the process now for where the next runway after that should be built, because it will probably take 20 years to fudge that one too.
The fieldwork for this polling ended on the 15th of June, so before the recent events in Greece and Tunisia
I suspect a few will emigrate, many won't in the same way as many Brits wouldn't have if Ed Miliband got elected, they will just stay at home and get angry (or drunk). The African boat people wont want to go to Greece, not when there are nice places with booming economies (since the afore mentioned EdM didn't get elected) and free health and education available to them. Working as I do with people who make substantially less every day than most of the economic migrants moving from Africa make even before they get in the boats, I am not all that sympathetic to them.
2007, around the same time as the Glasgow attack, saw a car bomb attack on a night club, foiled by pissed-up clubbers noticing something about the car.
2008 saw a failed attack on a restaurant in exeter.
These are all very near-misses (and stopped by incompetence rather than the security services), I'm sure a cursory google would find more.
Meanwhile the Greek govt think that the Eurocrats' belief in 'ever closer union' means that they will eventually fold, as there's no formal mechanism for kicking them out of the Euro.
Dangerous games when playing for such high stakes. One imagines that Mme Legard is wishing the IMF had never got involved with the EZ countries at all.
Disclosure: I live in south west London
Though to my memory as a child the most sexual inuendo that ever happened in cartoons I watched was Bugs Bunny dressing in women's clothes and being alluring to Elmer Fudd etc - and I know those weren't contemporary 80's cartoons but from decades earlier.
For the cartoons my daughter watches the only relationship I can think of is still Mickey and Minnie Mouse.
They want to continue spending Germany's money, and the Germans are wondering "what have the Greeks ever done for us?"
Both objectively and subjectively, as Carlotta says, people know that the risk of a madman shooting you is very, very low down on your list of daily dangers. I think that people in London did feel it had become significant for a bit after 7/7, and previously at the height of the IRA bombings, but otherwise it's just registered as one of the horrid but fairly unlikely things that might happen.
That doesn't mean that people don't want the Government to be proactive and vigilant - of course they do. But it's not really impinging much as a personal factor at the present levels. Nor should it - it'd be bonkers if people going to the supermarket looked round nervously to see if someone was about to shoot them. We owe it to ourselves not to get too paranoid about it: we're just playing the ISIS game if we do.
Are all these people (Cameron yesterday) being coached by the same person / organisation, 'cos they all seem to be making the same mistakes - bluff, bluster, double bluff, try and ram your own points through with no relevance to the question, bluff and lastly, but not forgotten, in the race to sound like a complete eejit, more bluster?
Both Germany and Greece are now having to deal with the implications of Euro membership without the associated fiscal union. This is the crux of Cameron's negotiations, that the fiscal union has to be deeper to avoid another crisis, and that's where the UK (and Denmark, and possibly Sweeden) doesn't want to be.
What the authorities thought might happen if we got to hear their actual voices God only knows?
@britainelects
Con HOLD Pentrych on Cardiff CC:
CON 40.2% (-14.2)
PC 39.0% (+26.9)
LAB 16.8% (-12.3)
IND 1.7% (+1.7)
GRN 1.6% (-1.2)
LDEM 0.7% (-0.8)
http://news.sky.com/video/1508157/he-s-been-thinking-about-you
Like all of these headings it is a broad category with a range of facets: how do we deal with the fact that hundreds of our citizens want to go to fight with ISIL in Syria or Iraq, have we gone too far in defence cuts, should we get more directly involved in the fight against ISIS, how do we deal with the security risk at home without turning into a police state, how do we correct the mistakes of multi-culturalism and integrate better into a unified community, where is the boundary between free speech and incitement to be put etc etc.
All of these questions seem to me relevant to our future security and they do not have straightforward answers.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/616152153783173120
Traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wertH16rSI
You can find sexual innuendo everywhere, when you ignore context. Swallows and Amazons has Able Seaman Titty, Salty Seaman, and Roger the Ship's Boy.
I would personally go for Gatwick.
No one in their right mind would locate a hub airport in a densely populated area to the West of a major conurbation.
Hub and spoke has been superceded by point to point.
London like LA, Tokyo, NY and Moscow generates enough traffic not to need to be a hub. NY and Moscow operate satellite airports rather than a hub. Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Dubai are fine as hubs.
Expansion is not needed, there is spare capacity at Stansted and regional airports.
Expansion is ruinously expensive.
Heathrow and BA are foreign owned anyway.
Apart from that Heathrow expansion makes sense.
Loads more information at http://your.heathrow.com/takingbritainfurther/vision/
There is indeed over reaction, but the over reaction to a failure to prevent terrorism is even greater. A dozen thick people ran away to Syria. The emphasis was not on how thick and stupid and soon to be dead they were, but on the errors that allowed those thick people to fulfill their thick destiny.
There was of course no need for 90 day detention and no need for David Davis to go off his self serving rocker over it. There is a need for intelligence gathering under clause 1 page 1 of the Manual on How to Defeat Terrorism. We should not be shy about putting up with it
Now, you can argue about infrastructure and value to the economy, and there's a valid argument to be had, but when Yorkshire is again seeing projects cancelled (there's been a tram system hokey-cokey in Leeds several times as well as the recent railway issues) and London's biggest problem is whether to build another runway here or another runway there, the contrast may not play well.
Willem Buiter of Citi wrote an interesting article on how Greece could default and stay in the Euro, with the ECB and the EFSF recapitalising the banks while Greece defaults. It's a compelling prospect, albeit one that still requires the government to play ball (which it shows no sign of doing).
Standing on the fringes of an anti-austerity rally on Monday night in central Athens, Joanna Matsoukas, a high school physics teacher, was won over by the chanting students, communists and nationalists urging Greece to reject a new bailout and austerity package in a national referendum.
That was until she was told voting No could mean Greece losing the euro.
“Wait, could they really kick us out? I did not think that would happen,” Ms Matsoukas said. “[The anti-austerity campaign] has really convinced many parts of the middle-class . . . But if the vote was about choosing the drachma over the euro, then they would definitely lose.”
That seeming paradox has existed in Greece throughout the crisis, with citizens deeply opposed to the austerity measures demanded by creditors but still desperately wedded to the euro and a place in the EU.
Personally, I'm yet to be convinced that we actually need extra capacity in the South (again!), but if we really do, then maybe Boris is the only one talking sense on this one.
This would mean that you would look down on planes landing, and it would be like landing inside a giant net.
SUPER COOL, huh???
Just enquiring as to the status of the second coming of the AV thread?
Thanks....
titters
I suspect it will have to be bumped because of Heathrow.
My stint as Guest Editor ends tomorrow evening and I'm running out of time as I have three pre-prepared and one or two may have to end up on the cutting room floor.
The pieces are on
1) Electoral reform/AV
2) The Greatest political master strategist of his era
3) Trolling Analysing the Nats and Kippers in the same piece.
The bigger issue will be building it and the massive disruption to the motorway/
My solution to the extra runway problem is to build 3 (possibly 4) of them.
This is not too much tongue in cheek.
Extra runways at Gatwick and Stansted (possibly Luton) would help with the capacity problem and simply extending one runway at Heathrow to allow both take offs and landings simultaneously would increase the ability of Heathrow do deal with 'emergency' capacity following fog, snow, traffic control delays etc. This would make it a more reliable hub, but not materially affect its traffic. And technically it would only be 2 runways.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2858732/Plans-four-half-mile-runway-Heathrow-show.html
Note it involves diverting the M25 into a tunnel. My version of the above plan still puts lots more capacity elsewhere and is not particularly 'pro Heathrow'. I would limit any increase in usage to a minimum but use the extra notional capacity to make Heathrow more reliable as a hub.
Heathrow really is in the wrong place - but it's there so make the best of it without creating even more congestion.
The last thing we should worry about is cost (ie the building of 2 additional runways) - we are stuck with a vast bill anyway and we need the capacity. We need to think ahead.
QED:-)