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As he said yesterday, If, when the market goes up, you see a price bigger than this on any of these I’d tentatively suggest that it might be value. Labour 4/7 Green 7/2 Conservatives 6/1
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11695816/Why-did-the-polls-get-it-wrong-at-the-general-election-Because-they-lied.html
Did we ever find out who was the guy who took Shadsy for six figures walking into a shop the week before with a briefcase of cash on the Con majority result?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593973/Pensioner-who-placed-30000-bet-on-Tory-majority-is-single-biggest-election-winner.html
FWIW I have some sympathy with Dan's excoriation of the pollsters but it can't be the full story, because even the phone pollsters' outliers fell short of the result. Shy Tories imo.
Am I alone in thinking that the seduction of a typical 15 year old boy by a 28 year old woman may not have been the worst thing that could have happened to him? The 13 year old is a different issue. I agre that the fact that they were their teacher is an abuse of their position.
The Greens really have a mountain to climb to get 2nd, that said SLAB's self destructive tendency could make a difference. As SLAB are likely to lose most if not all of their 15 constituency seats, the battle for the remaining 20 or so list seats is going to be intense. SLAB have announced that all regional lists will be opened up and SLAB members will decide the rankings, this is going to be a brutal process. Should SLAB's infighting spill over into the public domain their vote heading to the danger zone of 15% could become a reality.
Another market which I spotted this morning was WH SLAB leader - Kezia 1/7 and Ken 4/1.
Hopefully as we get nearer to the main event the bookies will open up seats bandings markets, which may have a bit of value in them.
The latter is good; Browtowe chose well.
Mr Hodges conclusion in his article would not be allowed here on PB, but its a conclusion I have some sympathy with.
Tough times to be the man in the street in Greece.
And goodness how we laugh.
But as other elections occur, and in the cold light of day, can someone explain the value or use of polls.
Or has there been a collective mea culpa/judge-led enquiry into what went wrong such as it won't happen again...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-33252378
Pricing it to a % over 100 then scaling all the runners down (almost) equally until its 100%.. seems a bit strange. In my experience, it is more likely that one of the prices would be wrong rather than all three equally
Secondly, why did you scale the fav down by 0.914, the second in by 0.92 and the rag by 0.933? By doing this then adding the same 3% overround to each runner, surely you are undercooking the fav? It would be ok if you added more over round to the fav than the others to compensate I guess. At IG when we did Binary Betting the spread around the favs was bigger than it was around the outsiders, (unless it was 1/10 or shorter) as it is in Spread Betting markets (27-30 7-9 0.5-2 etc)
ie if you made something a 1.76% chance would you offer it at 20/1? I would have thought 33/1 would be more likely
The OR on rags has to be smaller or else the true chance of a 100/1 shot winning would be -2%, and all 33/1 shots would have almost lost before the race began!
Most people in the industry that I know would price the favourite up first, as you did, because it is the runner w the most form/that you can be most confident about, then frame the rest around it to 100%... using your approach you are laying 1/2 about something your original instincts made a 70% chance. I don't think that's the right way of doing it
Finally, being pedantic, you scaled your 110% original book (70/25/15) down to 101% not 100% (64/23/14).. surprised no one picked up on that
I realise it was a market making lesson for beginners and maybe I am being too picky or am just plain wrong, but I did find that an odd approach. Then again I haven't worked in a bookmakers for 6 years, and maybe this is a new method that I have missed
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596435872121278464
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596437942576553987
Ian Davidson alone could cripple SLAB's hopes. That man is angry.
But right now it looks like the IMF have come back with counter proposals which are unacceptable to the Greeks.
The PB Tories always learn"
(or was it the other way round??)
In practice I usually just price what I think each selection should be then check my overround [and other bookies, if available!] and adjust if it's too big or too small. Yes, true, and to be honest I probably overegged the Green estimate - partly for effect, but also partly because that's where I'd expect to see money at this stage - a "trendy" outsider Yes, I wouldn't add 3% to outsiders [as I hinted at in the article]. In practice reducing by two or three ticks tends to work pretty well so for a 1.76% chance (true 50/1ish) 33/1 or maybe 25/1 on a political special would be about right. Sure, though (a) it's a long way out for people to be backing odds-on, and (b) when something seems like the obvious winner you might get a better picture of just how odds-on it should be by analysing the threats. That was just rounding!
Possible election or referendum to come, or will the population just vote again for bread and circuses while continuing to think that tax is optional and retirement should be at 55?
Officials said the IMF was most concerned about the balance of the package, which was too heavily skewed towards tax increases that could further weaken the Greek economy and prove hard to collect, rather than structural reforms.
Also still in dispute were Greek demands for debt relief, which euro zone governments do not want to address at this stage, and IMF-led pressure for more steps to reform Greece's costly pension system.
There's no doubt that the IMF are right on the balance of the package, IMO.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/24/uk-eurozone-greece-idUKKBN0P40FR20150624
The IMF supports basket-cases all around the world. They cannot be seen to negotiate meaningfully, or forgive debt, ever. The Greeks know this, and knew this when they took the money. My [limited] sympathy with their situation is evaporating fast.
And before people start going on about how great the Greek pension is, it is worth noting that in 2013 Greek spending per pensioner over the age of 65 was 11th out of the 18 Eurozone members at that time and was 2/3rds of the Eurozone average. So they are not exactly the amazingly generous country that is being claimed.
I am all for them rapidly or even immediately increasing the pension age - though given the jobs market you have to ask where all the extra jobs are going to come from to cater for those who cannot retire. But the Greek pension is nothing extraordinary compared to the rest of the Eurozone.
Understood. Thought I would say something as people might have used that approach to price up the 3.45 at Kempton or something.
I am going to the Matt Forde political party show tonight in SW1. Its half hour of political stand up followed by a 45 minute interview then Q&A w a politician, and this month its... Jim Murphy!
Anyone else going? Its the last Wednesday of each month and for people as interested in politics as PBers it is a must see really if you can get to Victoria easily
IMF = Xerxes
The only sure thing is that kicking the can further down the road AGAIN will not solve anything at all.
The situation needs an endgame, not more fudge than a Devon seaside resort
Understood. Thought I would say something as people might have used that approach to price up the 3.45 at Kempton or something.
I am going to the Matt Forde political party show tonight in SW1. Its half hour of political stand up followed by a 45 minute interview then Q&A w a politician, and this month its... Jim Murphy!
Anyone else going? Its the last Wednesday of each month and for people as interested in politics as PBers it is a must see really if you can get to Victoria easily
I was however, terribly worried by the polling that was coming out but mightily relieved at the exit poll. The Nation for once had the collective sense it ought to have .
my thoughts might have been a straw in the wind , but they were infinitely better than paying any of the polling companies to tell me a load of old cock.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/the-changing-face-of-the-tour-de-frances-green-jersey
rule changes in the green jersey could favour the sprinters, so potentially cavendish et al could be good value, sagan could be too short odds.
DYOR as they say, that article is quite nice and detailed
They entered into a loan on terms that they usually wouldn't do (rescuing the EU as they did so).
They loaned money to a country without control of its currency for the first time. And are now surprised that the consequences of their standard plans don't work (hint they work the rest of the time because its possible for the country's currency to depreciate and find its natural rate) while internal inflation does the rest. That isn't possible when the country doesn't have control of its currency...
The best way to imagine Greece is to pretend its Detroit or some other old dying part of the USA. And imagine what the consequences of what people are trying to do to that...
Lots of "proper" poor countries, some of them IMF contributors are bemused as to why they are paying to prop up banks and currency unions in wealth currency blocks that have easily enough money to solve the problem themselves.
However, I'm not betting on this. I really don't fancy betting on an odds-on favourite that is so completely shambolic. The self-loathing I'd feel if the bet lost would be indescribable.
Saying that you wouldn't start from here is easy with hindsight, but more than a few people at the time said that the IMF shouldn't have got involved in any of the EZ countries, rather should have insisted that the ECB sorted out the mess themselves.
The Greek problem could still be solved overnight if the other EZ countries agree to either a bailout from central ECB funds or a money-printing exercise, but the political will among the other EZ countries is not there for that approach.
Greece are about to go down the worst path possible, that of an unstructured Euro exit, and it'll be pretty horrible for them. They took money from the world's lender of last resort though, now they need to pay it back.
I hope i'm wrong. But it is pretty unlikely I am. If he gets a stage this year, he will be doing well.
As for Green, no rule change will stop Sagan. He is a remarkable rider given his ability to stick with the climbs to win flat finishes on Medium Mountain and win puncheur ramped finish stages while still sprinting against pure flat men effectively.
With a fortnight or so to go, we had ICM, Ashcroft, ComRes and Ipsos Mori all with Tory leads of 4% to 6%.
Dan Hodges is talking nonsense, granted I'm slightly biased in having to got to know quite a few pollsters, as I know, they all worked hard trying to get the right result.
ICM (like other pollsters) do not herd, there have been other times, where they could have herded, but didn't do.
https://twitter.com/GroomB/status/613701706673713152
A London Tesco store has come under fire after it placed bacon-flavoured Pringles in a Ramadan promotional stand.
Many Muslims do not eat or drink in daylight hours during the festival and feast after sunset.
http://bit.ly/1LmcKZZ
You would feel like a total berk.
* Although I think part of their raison d'etre is to maintain global stability for the rich countries that fund the IMF. They do not exist for purely altruistic reasons.
And as a decent earner who lives in a metropolitan area, cheek by jowl with a significant proportion of people who earn quite a lot less, his inability to speak up for the basic concept of having a welfare system at all worries me. No, I do not wish to live in North Korea / Greece but, to provide equal exaggeration for effect, neither do I want to live in a barbed-wire protected compound in Lagos or Mogadishu. Poverty did not start being a problem when the welfare state started, the effects of poverty for 'decent hard-working' people like 'us' was far worse in Victorian times than it is now.
Now, I honestly don't think anyone from any party wants to go back to Victorian welfare standards, I'm not of that 'evil tories' school, but the lack of anyone on any side being willing to stand up and restate the basics of why a welfare system should exist at all, makes me fear that we might sleepwalk a lot closer those standards than we envisage, simply because the problem will remain under the surface until it is very bad.
IDS does seem to have at least some intellectual underpinnings in this respect, but the demand for quick austerity rather than slower structural reform seems to undermine any long-term plan he might be working to.
I don't like what the polling companies were doing and I am deeply mistrustful of them. Not that I lost any money, I made £40 on Broxtowe for my chosen charity.
Firstly, from the ages of 15-18 girls and women and losing virginity was virtually all they think about. Secondly, that a degree of interest from the male is necessary for full sex to occur with a female, for obvious reasons.
Yes, she exploited them emotionally and sexually. But I also wouldn't quite put this in the Rolf Harris, let alone Jimmy Saville, league.
Did you not see the comments on here and elsewhere from canvassers saying that real voters that they met on the doorstep were (unprompted) raising the issue of the SNP holding Labour to ransom as a price for backing them in government. Where did they get that idea from? The polls feed through to what commentators on the TV, radio and newspapers say and that does affect how people perceive the election. It is bound to have made a difference, we can disagree on how much.
I was keeping a track of polling movements in the home straight (You may remember SPUD?!) and from the Monday just over two weeks before the GE, until the Tuesday before the big day, the findings were
Con -2
Lab -13
UKIP +4
LD+1
Green +1
This was from a opening position of the Tories 39% with ICM and UKIP 7% w ICM so the Tories were starting from a high position and UKIP from a low
Looking at that I think the pollsters got the momentum pretty right, and if I had more faith in what was a pretty off the cuff experiment, the pointers for a Con Maj were there.
People that championed ICM could have profited if they had paid attention to SPUD and kept faith with ICM
One set of them was right - the other MILES out.
Most of the internet pollsters had derisory track records, and that was regularly questioned in the run up to polling day. Some Labour leaners dismissed the criticism, thinking it was borne of political bias, rather than the woeful, observed outcomes at by elections, the Euros etc.
It was the faith in Yougov and the fog of it's daily polling that did the damage more than anything.
Internet polling should be dead. All it's flaws were regularly debated - too much self selection, multiple accounts, false identifiers, susceptibility to activists.
Also, children are too young to properly give consent. I once had a friend who admitted that he had sex with an adult babysitter when he was just 13. He was willing at the time, but it really messed up his trust levels in sexual relationships, and he became angrier and angrier about how he was abused as time went on. He also said one of the worst parts of it was how he can't ever admit it to most people, because male victims of rape are ridiculed and "must have enjoyed it".
The cuts to child tax credits being mooted may end up taking us back to a level of generosity that was INTRODUCED by the last labour government - i.e. before that the situation was even less generous than what we will soon have. The whole system seems have become creepingly more generous over the years without any debate.
I remember receiving tax credits when both my wife and I had decent jobs. To my mind this is absurd, and not how I would design a "welfare state" from scratch. We absolutely did not need the money. Much of the extra money in the pockets of people like us ultimately just drove up house prices, or was spent on (often imported) goods far beyond the scope of everyday necessities which to my mind benefits should help people with the cost of.
Of course, saying "I wouldn't start from here" doesn't help to reform the current situation, but we ended up here without the vast majority of the public being aware of - and therefore without being able to express support or otherwise for - the degree of the state's largesse.
https://twitter.com/kdugdalemsp/status/613713668484792320
I personally think the Greens will do well to come fourth. They may beat the Lib Dems in terms of votes but probably not in terms of seats. Voting for them to have most seats (Exc SNP) seems crazy to me. I wouldn't bet on that at 70/2.
As the oh so charming Tommy showed us yesterday there are going to be a lot of competitors for SNP supporters second votes. I would not be surprised if there is another hard left option than Tommy's crew and the sharing around of the votes will reduce the tactical effect.
I think it is so unlikely that there will be an SNP clean sweep that I am tempted to bet on that despite the rather mean odds. It seems unlikely to me that all the mistakes that Unionist supporters made in the GE will be repeated.