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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Liz Kendall, virtually unknown 8 weeks ago, in 2nd place in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Liz Kendall, virtually unknown 8 weeks ago, in 2nd place in ORB LAB leadership poll
This ORB poll for the Independent was conducted among all voters, not Labour members, Andy Burnham will be delighted with these figures, he can cite that the wider electorate perceive him as the candidate who will do the most to improve Labour’s chances at the next election, which should do his leadership ambitions no harm.
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3136773/Sturgeon-link-vile-internet-trolls-revealed-SNP-leader-follows-bullies-Twitter-previously-met-one-them.html
The Cybernats will be ruing the day, or at least after The Mail.
Unfortunately she has done or said very little to date to justify that epithet. Presumably the likes of Hopi Sen have a sound basis for their belief being on the inside but she really needs to become more than a void into which people can project their hopes and dreams.
These are sad times for Labour and in my view they are not great times for the country either. A government without a switched on opposition will make more mistakes and correct them less quickly than a government that is being constantly tested and challenged. At the moment there is no effective opposition. This is not a happy state of affairs.
I thought that was spot on. At the moment the SNP are not being held effectively to account for their numerous failures in health and education. No coherent alternative point of view is being put forward. I would of course be delighted if the Tories could fill that gap but I am realistic enough to know that is just not going to happen in terms of numbers. Davidson also has a number of dinosaurs in the Scottish party who slow her down somewhat.
It also seems to me that Ken Macintosh's aspiration is one that the national leadership should also reflect on. Can they form an effective opposition to this government? It is more difficult than it seems. Macintosh made it clear that this would not be opposition for opposition's sake but would require a coherent alternative approach based in the real world and part of an overall strategy. Something Labour completely failed to produce under Ed. Something that gives the people of this country a real choice and keeps the government on its mettle.
Nevertheless, being Tory-lite - or even UKIP-lite - won't save Labour. Pity Corbyn has spent his life leaping before he looked. What the contest lacks is an old-fashioned Tribunite - and that lack in itself speaks volumes.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3136783/Scots-grab-Queen-s-cash-Sturgeon-want-2m-royal-fund-ourselves.html
The fact that so many on the left can make these attacks, however, suggests to me that they are as guilty of projection in respect of Kendall as her own supporters.
The next debate could be interesting - anyone know when it is?
I accept every opposition has to take time to regroup but the successful ones such as Blair/Brown and Cameron/Osborne have looked like a potential government very quickly. This leadership campaign does not have that vibe to be honest.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3136208/Labour-peer-Lord-Janner-violated-raped-tortured-children-PARLIAMENT-claims-Simon-Danczuk-bombshell-debate.html
Met Office’s Hadley Centre, which looks at long term forecasts, said there was a 15-20 per cent chance that we could match the temperatures last seen in 1645-1715 – sometimes called the Little Ice Age - when the River Thames froze over.
This could take place at some point within the next 40 years.
The prediction is based on counting sun spots – dark patches on the sun – that are hot spots and signs of increased solar activity.
The decrease in the sun’s heat is known as a ‘Maunder minimum’ after Walter Maunder - the astronomer who first noted sunspots were at their lowest during the cold period between 1645 and 1715.
Studies by the Met Office and others have found a decrease in sun spots - suggesting the sun may be going through a cooler phase.
The cooling effect is expected to be strongest in northern Europe, the UK and eastern parts of North America - particularly during winter. For example, for northern Europe the cooling is in the range -0.4 to -0.8 °C.
This is because computer simulations predict a big fall in solar activity would disrupt winds and suck cold air southwards from the Arctic.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3136780/
Also why not sever the link with the Unions as they are in decline.
Also a really good last thread from Tissue Price about odds compilation. Thanks.
Wonderful morning comedy.
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/06/23/is-anyone-honestly-surprised-that-greeks-dont-pay-their-debts/
I think Labour would be best served picking a female leader anyway. Kendall is new and interesting and Cooper has always been a classy, intelligent act. For starters it would be historic for Labour to elect a full-time female leader and a female would be harder for the Tory machine/right wing press to knock about.
If I were a Labour supporter I'd personally go with Yvette Cooper because - for all Kendall's merits - she will struggle to win much back in Scotland.
And therein lies Labour's starkest problem - finding a leader who can bridge the need to win back middle England voters while at the same time winning back the lefties in Scotland. Not an easy task.
Amazing to think that only a year ago it was the Tories facing the supposed existential crisis of its right flank splitting with UKIP. So much can change in politics so quickly. Labour will be hoping thinks change as quickly for them.
Their biggest hope by 2020 will be an unpopular, tired Tory party and the electorate's desire for a change.
One matter which concerns us is what current Conservative policies will do to our children, grandchildren, and even worse, great-grandchildren.
You should be damned grateful.
It's important to try to visualise the position in 2020. The Tories will have a new leader, probably a mainstream "steady as we go" type like Hammond or May (if it's Boris, all bets are off as he'll either soar or crash), but a record of economic pain and a lot of quarrelling about Europe. We need have someone who can credibly say that they're not interested in all that European stuff, what matters is how the lives of ordinary people improve. Being seen as down to earth to going to be important - people gave Ed credit for being concerned about ordinary people, but not for really understanding them.
And if it is true, perhaps you should broaden your social horizons a little from your little echo chamber.
It is the 'never have. never will' bit that sounds particularly unbelievable.
The Tories enthusiastically supported Blair over Iraq; probably wouldn't even have a vote in the House on the matter! If they'd backed the late lamented Charlie Kennedy, with the Labour rebels, the Iraq War would probably, as far as the UK was concerned, have been someone else's fight!
Secondly the last election, as I've said before wasn't so much won by the Tories but lost by Labour in Scotland. And the SNP was used as a bogeyman by Crosby et al in marginal and LD seats, as Mr Mark has made plain.
Brown's big mistake of course was to trust the criminal banking fraternity.
Some Labour types seem to have got their act together - concentrating on the crap performance in Education and Health of the SNP government.
Nothing in Mrs. Balls' history suggests that she is "a classy, intelligent act" - she has made no impression at all in any brief; she permanently wears the expression of a bulldog licking piss off a wasp; and frankly, given this underwhelming record, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that she is where she is largely because she is Mrs. Balls - which in itself calls her judgment gravely into question.
Neither is there any prospect of the Tories wanting or not wanting to "knock about" a female Labour leader. Remember, the Tories' assessment of the Labour leader is always right. Always. They said Callaghan was a bumbling fool, Foot was a senile lefty, Kinnock was a vacuous lighweight, Smith was a spendaholic, Blair was Demon Eyes, Brown was mad and incompetent and Miliband was a backstabbing treacherous nerd. Every one of these characterisations was spot on factually accurate.
There is plenty of factual ammo to use against every Labour leadership candidate save perhaps Kendall, where the attack will be "Liz who?"
The lies from Blair/Campbell are IMO the biggest shame any government deserved. It wasn't a mistaken judgement call - it was a LIE. I can't ever forgive them for that. Ever.
Iraq is a special case when it comes to misleading the population. I don't consider those who were in principle against the war any different. Or better in hindsight.
Vastly more people will suffer and die in a colder period than will suffer and die in the relatively modest warming climate everyone is wringing their hands about,,,
Golly, how bizarre. Migration - what's that??!! Not just sitting there and drowning in 250yrs time.
Miss Plato, any idea how many were trained up?
These schemes harm the most self-starting types again and again.
Warm things up to 2C and... For most parts of the world it's manageable (if a little uncomfortable in places)
Cool things down by 2C in the major population regions of Europe, Asia and North America and your talking about tremendous hardship and suffering - Especially given "the west" is set on making heat and fuel as expensive as it possibly can.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/e3-round-up.html
Mostly Fallout 4.
Mr. Gin, giant icicles dangling from wind turbines will only enhance their efficiency
Are they good quality ones? A few light ones? Natural history progs have a habit of being rather data heavy. They seem to have A LOT about dinosaurs.
"Kendall scored highly among young voters, with 43% of the 18-24 year olds bracket believing she was Labour’s best electoral asset. Cooper is favoured among more women than men, while Burnham shows strong support in the North West."
http://labourlist.org/2015/06/its-not-voter-id-or-community-organising-its-a-question-of-how-we-do-both/ by Stella Creasey
Not really where he needs to be strong....
Pensions, tax credits, HB, ESA, DLA, CB, Pension credit.
Cut em all I say.
http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2015/01/blogs/free-exchange/20150131_woc808.png
You can see how the state pension creates a mass of pensioners on a sustainable but not generous income. Which is of course what it is designed to do.
More "Quislings", I see.
Is there a single constituency in Scotland which didn't have an SNP official spearheading the abuse campaign?
It is all coming out, so why doesn't SNP-central just publish a list ? This way is just tedious.
Of course, all the really cool kids are into F1.
I bought a Mercedes SLK for mine - an upgrade from my 1974 Spitfire. It didn't handle much better - I called it my Rollerskate.
It's 90% click-bait. It's in the business of generating controversy and attracting attention for its advertisers.
It reflects the concerns of a huge swath of Middle Britain. It's the paper read by Most Liberal Democrats IIRC.
It's a Guilty Pleasure by those who pretend they never read it, but love it.
Having been personally monstered by it - I'd never buy it, but it does get great details and angles which makes it very very successful. If I read a crime story in the Times, I know there's almost always more juicy details in the Mail.
I think there is a debate on Sunday Politics 19th July. There are plenty of hustings too.
The days of distracting from the crap job being done by Holyrood are beginning to come to an end.
'Neither my wife and I, nor many of our friends, all OAP's, vote Tory. Never have, never will.'
Your badge of honor is in the mail.