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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says It’s advantage Sadiq in the London Labo

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    If he wins that'll be in line to be PB betting tip of the year, for markets settled in 2015.

    True, except that it will be settled in 2016!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,308

    Khan's ethnic quotas proposal is despicable.

    It's the fat end of the wedge.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    JEO said:



    That's only credible if the election is free and fair, which the government is doing its best to avoid. You can't have the taxpayer fund one side in a referendum, and then expect the other side to accept a defeat as legitimate.

    Indeed ^_~ http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/jun/taxpayers-cant-be-expected-bankroll-no-camp
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    JEO said:

    It's also worth noting that the Standard is nowhere near as overtly pro-Tory as it was in Ken v Boris days. It still leans right, but it's reporting is far less skewed than it used to be and there are plenty of pro-Labour columnists.

    Rosamund Urwin is by far the most irritating one. She writes like an understudy to Polly Toynbee. Her columns also ooze bitterness.

    I can't recall ever agreeing with her on anything she's ever said.

    I completely disagree. She is an authentic voice of Generation Rent and lives the life she writes about. Whoever hired her was very astute. Her stuff reflects a major strand of the London experience.

    I am from the same generation. She absolutely does not speak for me, and I'd implore all politicians to ignore such resentful and miserable whining.
    I am also from the same generation. I find her a dreadful columnist. It's quite rare that I actually check a columnist's name, but I only do it when the column is extremely good or extremely poor. I would say the majority of bad columns I read are written by her.

    It's an insult to Polly Toynbee to be compared. I disagree with Toynbee a lot, but she has some level of deeper philosophy and thought behind her sentiments. Urwin is just reactively anti-Tory and incredibly smug. She ridicules anyone that has right of centre views to be written off as selfish/evil/reactionary/an idiot. She's emblematic of the mindset that lost Labour the election: people of like mind talking to themselves about how righteous they are, without stopping to check if the bulk of the public agree with them.
    Hard to disagree with that. I know exactly what you mean.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    If he wins that'll be in line to be PB betting tip of the year, for markets settled in 2015.

    True, except that it will be settled in 2016!
    Maybe - if it's Khan vs Zak then Paddy Power might throw in the towel early.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited June 2015

    DavidL said:

    It would be part of a somewhat sad trend if this is as good as Labour think they can do. Jowell is frankly boring (despite the leather jacket the other day) but she is solid, competent and has played a part in delivering a massive project in London.

    Mush as I'd enjoy Labour picking a losing candidate, there's also the substantial risk they'd get elected - which is why I too would prefer Jowell - the Olympics were a considerable success, and while how much was down individually to Jowell is unknowable, and may be 'not very much' - at least she was there and helped make it happen - and was seen to be rooting for 'London' - not 'Labour'. In a previous life we used a simple recruiting criterion - 'Has done - will do'.

    What has Khan done? (May be a lot - but I'm not aware of it).
    He's a career race huckster and advocate of race preference for his own race. In the Labour party that still gets you a long way.

    I wouldn't go so far as call him a racist because whether something is racism or not depends on the race of the racist.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    TGOHF said:

    If he wins that'll be in line to be PB betting tip of the year, for markets settled in 2015.

    True, except that it will be settled in 2016!
    Maybe - if it's Khan vs Zak then Paddy Power might throw in the towel early.
    Khan vs Zac mmmmmmmmm
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    Should Khan become London Mayor the resulting by election in Tooting looks quite interesting...
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    JEO said:

    It's also worth noting that the Standard is nowhere near as overtly pro-Tory as it was in Ken v Boris days. It still leans right, but it's reporting is far less skewed than it used to be and there are plenty of pro-Labour columnists.

    Rosamund Urwin is by far the most irritating one. She writes like an understudy to Polly Toynbee. Her columns also ooze bitterness.

    I can't recall ever agreeing with her on anything she's ever said.

    I completely disagree. She is an authentic voice of Generation Rent and lives the life she writes about. Whoever hired her was very astute. Her stuff reflects a major strand of the London experience.

    I am from the same generation. She absolutely does not speak for me, and I'd implore all politicians to ignore such resentful and miserable whining.
    I am also from the same generation. I find her a dreadful columnist. It's quite rare that I actually check a columnist's name, but I only do it when the column is extremely good or extremely poor. I would say the majority of bad columns I read are written by her.

    It's an insult to Polly Toynbee to be compared. I disagree with Toynbee a lot, but she has some level of deeper philosophy and thought behind her sentiments. Urwin is just reactively anti-Tory and incredibly smug. She ridicules anyone that has right of centre views to be written off as selfish/evil/reactionary/an idiot. She's emblematic of the mindset that lost Labour the election: people of like mind talking to themselves about how righteous they are, without stopping to check if the bulk of the public agree with them.
    She is one of those people who would enthusiastically support degrees for all then complain about student debt; vote Labour then complain about the amount and consequences of immigration; object to having to borrow a lot to buy a house, then object to MMR limiting her ability to borrow a lot and thus becoming unable to buy a house; and so on.

    She is one of those people who should never be given what she thinks she wants because she hasn't thought through what she wants and will become angrier if she is given it.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Rather than standing Khan, why doesn't Labour just stand Lutfur Rahman for London Mayor? He and Khan agree on pretty much everything, both support racial discrimination, but Rahman has an impressive record of being able to GOTV on the day. Plus, he is available now and if any criticises him it's always racism.

    Very 2015 Labour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713

    JEO said:

    It's also worth noting that the Standard is nowhere near as overtly pro-Tory as it was in Ken v Boris days. It still leans right, but it's reporting is far less skewed than it used to be and there are plenty of pro-Labour columnists.

    Rosamund Urwin is by far the most irritating one. She writes like an understudy to Polly Toynbee. Her columns also ooze bitterness.

    I can't recall ever agreeing with her on anything she's ever said.

    I completely disagree. She is an authentic voice of Generation Rent and lives the life she writes about. Whoever hired her was very astute. Her stuff reflects a major strand of the London experience.

    I am from the same generation. She absolutely does not speak for me, and I'd implore all politicians to ignore such resentful and miserable whining.
    I am also from the same generation. I find her a dreadful columnist. It's quite rare that I actually check a columnist's name, but I only do it when the column is extremely good or extremely poor. I would say the majority of bad columns I read are written by her.

    It's an insult to Polly Toynbee to be compared. I disagree with Toynbee a lot, but she has some level of deeper philosophy and thought behind her sentiments. Urwin is just reactively anti-Tory and incredibly smug. She ridicules anyone that has right of centre views to be written off as selfish/evil/reactionary/an idiot. She's emblematic of the mindset that lost Labour the election: people of like mind talking to themselves about how righteous they are, without stopping to check if the bulk of the public agree with them.
    She is one of those people who would enthusiastically support degrees for all then complain about student debt; vote Labour then complain about the amount and consequences of immigration; object to having to borrow a lot to buy a house, then object to MMR limiting her ability to borrow a lot and thus becoming unable to buy a house; and so on.

    She is one of those people who should never be given what she thinks she wants because she hasn't thought through what she wants and will become angrier if she is given it.
    Don't forget: her response to almost any criticism of her is that it's emblematic of male sexism.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    the really offensive thing is that they can get that kind of pish published in a "respectable" scientific journal
    Anecdotally it has long been clear that in this country it is only lefties who demonstrate and riot. One struggles to think of a right-wing riot since Oswald Mosley (even if one accepts that he actually was right-wing).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    GIN1138 said:

    Should Khan become London Mayor the resulting by election in Tooting looks quite interesting...

    I'd have thought a Labour hold, but it's not a dead cert by any means.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Amazon appear to be altering the way they pay self-published authors, so it's by how many pages are read.

    It's good news. I was making so much money I was having a hard time deciding what to spend it all on.

    .....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    JEO said:

    Moses_ said:

    The utter madness that is the EU

    Daily Telegraph
    .
    "Greek debt crisis: hopes of a deal in next 48 hours as Tsipras must sell the plan at home - live
    A glimmer of hope as EU leaders aim to finalise deal by Thursday which includes plans to hike taxes and reform pensions."

    Doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result.....?

    Meanwhile across the channel Also from the Daily Telegraph...

    "France must provoke 'diplomatic incident' with UK over migrants, says Calais mayor"

    "Calais mayor Natacha Bouchart calls on French government to spark "diplomatic incident" with UK over migrant crisis, saying Britain must either adopte Schengen border rules or "leave" the EU."

    The French want to move their problem because they agree to Schengen onto us who do not. No thought of why these people are on French soil, in a safe country and can claim asylum. No sireee !! It is the entire fault of the " Ros Beefs " just move them on to the UK because we the French have such crap border controls.

    The EU and the Euro is just insanity.

    For reasons I will never understand some people on here seem to love the EU.

    They must hate democracy.
    Not at all. Every country in the EU is a democracy, and the trend over time is for the democratic structures in the EU to become stronger. There is always some tension in balancing the will of the majority against minority rights and protections.

    We shall shortly see whether the democratically expressed wish of the UK voter is to remain in the EU.
    Hang on. You are the one who has been complaining about the Referendum and saying this should have been decided by Parliament. Of course there is a strong suspicion that if it had looked at all likely Parliament would have voted for us to leave you would be moaning about how it should not be allowed without a referendum.
    I think Referenda are poor ways of making decisions on complex issues, but if we are to have one will tespect the result.
    That's only credible if the election is free and fair, which the government is doing its best to avoid. You can't have the taxpayer fund one side in a referendum, and then expect the other side to accept a defeat as legitimate.
    Getting your excuses in early?
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    the really offensive thing is that they can get that kind of pish published in a "respectable" scientific journal
    Anecdotally it has long been clear that in this country it is only lefties who demonstrate and riot. One struggles to think of a right-wing riot since Oswald Mosley (even if one accepts that he actually was right-wing).
    probably some EDL bobbins around somewhere.

    Anyway, beside my point. they select a bunch of people on the basis of their being "conservative" and then demonstrate that those people behave "conservatively". purest of bobbins
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Amazon appear to be altering the way they pay self-published authors, so it's by how many pages are read.

    It's good news. I was making so much money I was having a hard time deciding what to spend it all on.

    .....

    You want to treat yourself to a pet rabbit, Mr Dancer.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    the really offensive thing is that they can get that kind of pish published in a "respectable" scientific journal
    Anecdotally it has long been clear that in this country it is only lefties who demonstrate and riot. One struggles to think of a right-wing riot since Oswald Mosley (even if one accepts that he actually was right-wing).
    probably some EDL bobbins around somewhere.

    Anyway, beside my point. they select a bunch of people on the basis of their being "conservative" and then demonstrate that those people behave "conservatively". purest of bobbins
    and anyway, surely looting is the ultimate expression of yr free market :)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    "63% reckon Labour are “too soft” on welfare.

    That’s not, by the way, some push-polling done to further a right wing agenda. That figure is from the post-election research carried out by the TUC."

    http://labourlist.org/2015/06/we-decided-a-week-ago-to-broaden-the-debate-about-labours-future-lets-not-try-and-close-it-down-now/
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited June 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Amazon appear to be altering the way they pay self-published authors, so it's by how many pages are read.

    It's good news. I was making so much money I was having a hard time deciding what to spend it all on.

    .....

    You want to treat yourself to a pet rabbit, Mr Dancer.
    Or a pet owl - could even act as your post/man/woman/owl.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    House-trained bunnies are wonderful. If nibblers.
    Pulpstar said:

    Amazon appear to be altering the way they pay self-published authors, so it's by how many pages are read.

    It's good news. I was making so much money I was having a hard time deciding what to spend it all on.

    .....

    You want to treat yourself to a pet rabbit, Mr Dancer.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Bet that hurt.
    Financier said:

    "63% reckon Labour are “too soft” on welfare.

    That’s not, by the way, some push-polling done to further a right wing agenda. That figure is from the post-election research carried out by the TUC."

    http://labourlist.org/2015/06/we-decided-a-week-ago-to-broaden-the-debate-about-labours-future-lets-not-try-and-close-it-down-now/

  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    JEO said:

    On Sadiq Khan, why does someone that grew up in south London support Liverpool?

    Yes, it's astonishing. South London is almost solidly for Man United.

    Can't blame them. All the good London teams are north of the river.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547

    Rather than standing Khan, why doesn't Labour just stand Lutfur Rahman for London Mayor? He and Khan agree on pretty much everything, both support racial discrimination, but Rahman has an impressive record of being able to GOTV on the day. Plus, he is available now and if any criticises him it's always racism.

    Very 2015 Labour.

    Lutfur Rahman would be a very good choice, but unfortunately, he'll be disqualified at the time of next year's election.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Should go down well :D

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m2 minutes ago
    Michael Gove: Wealthy lawyers should do more free work for the justice system http://tgr.ph/1J1ORoj
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited June 2015
    Charles said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Charles said:

    Chris123 said:

    I continue to be amazed that Iraq 2003 continues to dominate the Labour Party when the real disgrace was the botched way we entered Afghanistan in 2006.

    And don't forget the construed conflict in Libya where a major humanitarian crisis - the consequences of which we are still very much seeing today - was created on the pretext of a "humanitarian" intervention with the support by both Labour and the Conservatives.
    Which bit about the imminent slaughter of up to 500,000 civilians justifies inverted commas?
    500,000! Why pluck that number out of the thin air?

    http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2015/02/01/hillarys-war/

    We certainly didn't intervene in the Ukraine or Bahrain when the governments there started killing their own people. The extraordinary thing is after the debacle of Iraq that Cameron followed up with Libya and Syria, history will not be kind.
    The population was 630,000 in 2011 (Wiki).

    The stories at the time - and I have to share nothing beyond press reports - were that the civilian population was under threat.
    It was a "manufactured" crisis. The peaceful protesters were not as "peaceful" as they were made out to be and Gaddafi never used heavy weaponry or planes to attack populated areas. Photoshop was at work here. Nor did Gaddafi ever threaten to attack civilians. He was "mistranslated."

    http://www.fourandsix.com/photo-tampering-history/tag/photojournalism-ethics?currentPage=3

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/29/hillary-clinton-libya-war-genocide-narrative-rejec/?page=all

    Hillary Clinton was the key figure behind this campaign and benefited financially because the companies that gained from the intervention were key backers of the Clinton foundation and paid her for "giving speeches." You just need to connect the dots to see how the money-grubbing worked behind the scenes:

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/24/opinions/louis-hillary-clinton-sid-blumenthal-emails/index.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    Yougov's Mayoral poll last week for the Evening Standard actually had Jowell with a narrow lead with Labour voters as well as All voters, Labour members will not differ much from Labour voters
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/

    Labour voters

    Jowell 23%
    Khan 20%
    Lammy 9%
    Abbott 9%

    All voters

    Jowell 15%
    Khan 10%
    Lammy 6%
    Abbott 6%
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Should Khan become London Mayor the resulting by election in Tooting looks quite interesting...

    I'd have thought a Labour hold, but it's not a dead cert by any means.
    Did your excellent Jason Day tip pay out e/w ?

  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Sean_F said:

    Rather than standing Khan, why doesn't Labour just stand Lutfur Rahman for London Mayor? He and Khan agree on pretty much everything, both support racial discrimination, but Rahman has an impressive record of being able to GOTV on the day. Plus, he is available now and if any criticises him it's always racism.

    Very 2015 Labour.

    Lutfur Rahman would be a very good choice, but unfortunately, he'll be disqualified at the time of next year's election.
    I aware he'd been hoofed out and LBTH now has a new Mayor but I hadn't realised the body that did this also had the power to bar his arse from office, so thanks for that.

    The right thing for UK public life, for sure, but not for the gaiety of the nation.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    antifrank said:
    Oh dear, I might have to review my book, which is currently tilted towards Yvette..
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    HYUFD said:

    Labour members will not differ much from Labour voters

    Huge - and quite probably incorrect - assumption you're blithely making there.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    TGOHF said:

    Should go down well :D

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m2 minutes ago
    Michael Gove: Wealthy lawyers should do more free work for the justice system http://tgr.ph/1J1ORoj

    Our low fees mean that we are, essentially, working for free in many instances.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106


    I think Referenda are poor ways of making decisions on complex issues, but if we are to have one will tespect the result.

    In general, I agree with you about referenda. The one exception is for constitutional change.

    In a representative democracy, the people delegate powers to the government to rule on their behalf. If the government want to transfer any of these powers to a third party, then they need to gain the approval of the people.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:
    Shit. Time to trade out.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    antifrank said:
    Oh dear, I might have to review my book, which is currently tilted towards Yvette..
    You are a very bad man :-)

    While I'd like Butcher to win I can see Yvette getting this. She seems overall much nastier than Butcher, who is merely a sap. She has probably therefore been sucking energetically up to the grassroots for years waiting for this day. There is a sort of gimme look in her little eyes.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Mr. Pulpstar, I have the enormo-haddock and octo-lemurs already.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    edited June 2015
    TP Why may I ask. In 2010 David Miliband led followed by Ed Miliband in polls of Labour voters and David Miliband won the Labour members vote.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Do octo-lemurs have stripey legs?

    Mr. Pulpstar, I have the enormo-haddock and octo-lemurs already.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,308
    A reminder of Polly's prescience as a contra-indicator last time - http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/aug/30/vain-venal-has-beens-mandelson

    "Labour's vain, venal has-beens should bow out and shut up

    Blair is reported in the Mail on Sunday as saying Ed Miliband would be "a disaster" while Mandelson tells the Times Ed would lead Labour into "an electoral cul-de-sac". "
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547

    antifrank said:
    Oh dear, I might have to review my book, which is currently tilted towards Yvette..
    You are a very bad man :-)

    While I'd like Butcher to win I can see Yvette getting this. She seems overall much nastier than Butcher, who is merely a sap. She has probably therefore been sucking energetically up to the grassroots for years waiting for this day. There is a sort of gimme look in her little eyes.

    Surely, we want Corbyn to win?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,973
    Miss Plato, yes. They're a perfect genetic splicing of lemurs and octopuses, endowed with a multiplicity of limbs and psychic powers.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    HYUFD said:

    TP Why may I ask. In 2010 David Miliband led followed by Ed Miliband in polls of Labour voters and David Miliband won the Labour members vote.

    Which polling was that? The very accurate YouGov polling made sure they got to Labour members.

    I did find this amusing article when searching (looks like a voodoo poll, tbh): http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1281363/Diane-Abbott-tipped-win-Labour-leadership-race.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    Polly's argument seems to be that while Corbyn may not be able to win, Cooper is the most leftwing of Burnham and Kendall so the best choice for her. On that basis Burnham or Kendall would be the better bets.

    'Kendall adopts totemic policies – for FREE schools, higher defence spending and the “centre ground”. She’s a “moderniser”, but calls for “reform” may seem a little otiose by 2020 if few services remain in the public realm. “What matters is what works” – well, yes, but who says otherwise? She has yet to show policy depth behind the words, with no flashes of Tony Blair’s 1997 radicalism – an equivalent to his minimum wage or £5bn windfall tax.

    Unless she ups her GAME, the contest is between Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper. His Liverpool working class backstory is a great asset. Cooper has a bit of the northern too – and the advantage that Labour needs a woman leader. The decider may be less about right and left than who has the credibility, solidity under fire, and the economic confidence and intellect to carry the argument against extreme austerity. Burnham’s interview in the Mail on Sunday seems to row back from his recent CLAIM that Ed Miliband’s was the best manifesto he had ever stood on, resiling from some of it. Burnham was fast out of the traps to attack Osborne’s benefit cuts yesterday – but Cooper was there too, defending tax credits and calling for a living wage.

    Cooper is on the up, her every outing leaving audiences thinking better of her. She even impressed the press gallery last week, the toughest gig of all. This question killed Miliband: did Labour overspending leave Britain vulnerable in the crash? Unlike Kendall, Cooper refuses to concede. It’s not true, she won’t say it and she can say why with A punchy economic explanation poor Miliband never learned. No need to choose yet: any of the three may shine brighter in the next months, but my hunch is Cooper is the one to beat.'

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/23/labour-leadership-race-yvette-cooper-andy-burnham
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TGOHF said:

    Should go down well :D

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m2 minutes ago
    Michael Gove: Wealthy lawyers should do more free work for the justice system http://tgr.ph/1J1ORoj

    Shallow populism again. Much like his time as Education Secretary then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    edited June 2015
    TP Yougov on 13th September 2010 had the following results with Labour voters

    David Miliband 34%
    Ed Miliband 12%
    Ed Balls 10%
    Diane Abbott 6%
    Andy Burnham 5%

    Head to Head

    David Miliband 43%
    Ed Miliband 21%

    So Labour voters got the top 3 in the right order and the winner of the members vote correct, though the margin was closer with members. With union members no longer automatically given a vote in Labour leadership and mayoral candidate votes Labour voters are a reasonable guide to the winner
    https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?month=&category=&year=2010&page=27

    See p6

    As a result do not rule out Jowell
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    matt said:

    TGOHF said:

    Should go down well :D

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m2 minutes ago
    Michael Gove: Wealthy lawyers should do more free work for the justice system http://tgr.ph/1J1ORoj

    Shallow populism again. Much like his time as Education Secretary then.
    Running services for the benefit of the users not the suppliers - it will never catch on..
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    HYUFD said:

    TP Yougov on 13th September 2010 had the following results with Labour voters

    David Miliband 34%
    Ed Miliband 12%
    Ed Balls 10%
    Diane Abbott 6%
    Andy Burnham 5%

    Head to Head

    David Miliband 43%
    Ed Miliband 21%

    So Labour voters got the top 3 in the right order and the winner of the members vote correct, though the margin was closer with members
    https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?month=&category=&year=2010&page=27

    See p6

    As a result do not rule out Jowell

    Well that's miles away from the result: simply getting it in the right order is not a success. If Labour members had voted like that, David would have won.

    See this article:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/heres-why-most-polls-about-labour-leadership-race-wont-tell-us-anything

    Never forget that Labour party activists are completely different from Labour party voters, let alone the country at large. At no point did Ed Miliband get anywhere near the 30 per cent of first preferences – let alone the 45 per cent he achieved in the final round – in a poll of Labour voters, although a YouGov poll of party members called the final result exactly right.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF said:

    Should go down well :D

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m2 minutes ago
    Michael Gove: Wealthy lawyers should do more free work for the justice system http://tgr.ph/1J1ORoj

    Is Michael Gove aware just how extensive the corporate social responsibility programmes of the large law firms are?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    TGOHF said:

    Should go down well :D

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m2 minutes ago
    Michael Gove: Wealthy lawyers should do more free work for the justice system http://tgr.ph/1J1ORoj

    Is Michael Gove aware just how extensive the corporate social responsibility programmes of the large law firms are?
    I suspect a shortage in supply of small string instruments at the depot may be occurring soon.
  • Toynbee (on Kendall) "She’s a “moderniser”, but calls for “reform” may seem a little otiose by 2020 if few services remain in the public realm."

    What a pile of cr*p "by 2020 if few services remain in the public realm". What massive privatisations of public services are underway? If there were I would welcome it. This is just an exBBC leftie hack scaremongering.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    HYUFD said:

    Cooper has a bit of the northern too – and the advantage that Labour needs a woman leader.

    How does Labour "need" a woman leader?

    Labour "needs" an effective leader regardless of gender. Whether they will get one from this current crop of candidates is open to question.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    antifrank said:

    Is Michael Gove aware just how extensive the corporate social responsibility programmes of the large law firms are?

    Of course he is.

    This is classic Gove. It's a diversionary tactic to distract the vested interests from the main offensive, which is to lay into the absurdly inefficient, ineffective and expensive justice system - one of the major scandals of our age, and perhaps the last great untackled challenge from the restrictive practices of the pre-Thatcher period.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF said:

    antifrank said:

    TGOHF said:

    Should go down well :D

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m2 minutes ago
    Michael Gove: Wealthy lawyers should do more free work for the justice system http://tgr.ph/1J1ORoj

    Is Michael Gove aware just how extensive the corporate social responsibility programmes of the large law firms are?
    I suspect a shortage in supply of small string instruments at the depot may be occurring soon.
    I have no problem with Michael Gove using his bully pulpit to try to get changes in behaviour. But first he needs to decide in what way the behaviour is deficient.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Disraeli said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper has a bit of the northern too – and the advantage that Labour needs a woman leader.

    How does Labour "need" a woman leader?

    Labour "needs" an effective leader regardless of gender. Whether they will get one from this current crop of candidates is open to question.
    Just like the Conservatives "need" not to have an old Etonian - as the electorate have shown how bothered they are about attributes the candidate had nothing to do with .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    edited June 2015
    TP In the first round David Miliband won 14% of party members, Ed Miliband 9%, Ed Balls 3%, Abbott 2%, Burnham 2%. In the final round David Miliband won 18%, Ed Miliband 13% of the members vote in the electoral college, so the Labour voters figures gave you a clear guide to who would win the first round and the final round, even if the margin was closer.

    On that basis it actually did better than the yougov members poll because, as OGH pointed out recently, the yougov members poll had David Miliband winning the first round with members, beating Ed 38% - 31%. However it had Ed Miliband winning the final round 52-48%. Ed Miliband lost the final round with members
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2010
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    antifrank said:

    TGOHF said:

    Should go down well :D

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m2 minutes ago
    Michael Gove: Wealthy lawyers should do more free work for the justice system http://tgr.ph/1J1ORoj

    Is Michael Gove aware just how extensive the corporate social responsibility programmes of the large law firms are?
    One imagines so but he doesn't care. He is profoundly illiberal.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Toynbee (on Kendall) "She’s a “moderniser”, but calls for “reform” may seem a little otiose by 2020 if few services remain in the public realm."

    What a pile of cr*p "by 2020 if few services remain in the public realm". What massive privatisations of public services are underway? If there were I would welcome it. This is just an exBBC leftie hack scaremongering.

    You live and learn.. I thought I was pretty good at English but otiose is a word I have never come across.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    TGOHF said:

    Should go down well :D
    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m2 minutes ago
    Michael Gove: Wealthy lawyers should do more free work for the justice system http://tgr.ph/1J1ORoj

    A question, probably for Andrea... How many of the current Tory MPs are lawyers?

    At first sight, it looks like an own goal for Gove´s leadership chances.

    But then he only said "should" - which everybody would surely agree with. No problem.

    Perhaps if he were to introduce some kind of "national service" for lawyers, that might make a difference.....

    Does anybody think one of the leadership candidates might pick that up as an issue?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    It's always a laugh to be reminded of how batshit crazy Toynbee is. I so hope Labour's listening to her.

    "calls for “reform” may seem a little otiose by 2020 if few services remain in the public realm." - what?

    "His Liverpool working class backstory is a great asset" - it is? How?

    "did Labour overspending leave Britain vulnerable in the crash? Unlike Kendall, Cooper refuses to concede. It’s not true" - well, that's Labour stuffed then; what are they going to refuse to concede next? That the earth's round not flat?

    The flaw in the argument that Mrs Balls is great is that if we were we'd have had an inkling of it by now. If we have, I missed it.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    antifrank said:

    Is Michael Gove aware just how extensive the corporate social responsibility programmes of the large law firms are?

    Of course he is.

    This is classic Gove. It's a diversionary tactic to distract the vested interests from the main offensive, which is to lay into the absurdly inefficient, ineffective and expensive justice system - one of the major scandals of our age, and perhaps the last great untackled challenge from the restrictive practices of the pre-Thatcher period.
    In what way is it ineffective?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2015
    matt said:

    In what way is it ineffective?

    In civil cases, it fails to protect the ordinary guy from the rich and powerful. In criminal cases, it's a complete shambles of waste and chaotic outcomes. In all cases, it is ludicrously and disproportionately expensive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    PClipp Maybe if the government was not slashing legal aid to the bone while ringfencing some other departments wealthy lawyers would not need to do so much free legal work. In my experience most city law firms do pro bono work anyway, some commercial barristers do work for the Free Representation Unit, but they cannot be expected to sacrifice most of the other work they have to do in their paid day job to do much more
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Disraeli said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper has a bit of the northern too – and the advantage that Labour needs a woman leader.

    How does Labour "need" a woman leader?

    Labour "needs" an effective leader regardless of gender. Whether they will get one from this current crop of candidates is open to question.
    Labour is now beautifully hoist with its own petard.

    Because it insists on quotas, it has a HoC presence stuffed with nodding dogs who are there not because they are good, but because they are black, or women, or gay.

    The result is that when Labour comes to choose a leader it does so from a pool of abject, desperate no-marks such as Liz Who, Mrs Balls, and even Diane "White people like to divide and rule" Abbott. When it comes to mayoral candidates it faces likewise the farcical situation where Sadiq "Race quotas" Khan and David "Shoplifting off rich shops is OK" Lammy are actually serious candidates.

    Truly you reap what you sow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    Disraeli Yes voters vote on merit
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    We maybe getting two EU referendums.

    Head of the out campaign

    http://bit.ly/1SFQtsn
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2015
    Based on comments on this thread, it looks like Khan should be a bit shorter than Jowell for the nomination but the other way round for the mayoralty.

    No surprise to see Zac favourite. Guido has the results of his endorsement ballot:

    YES: 15,802 79%

    NO: 3569 18%

    Don’t Know: 503 2%

    Spoilt: 16

    77,071 ballots sent out, 19,890 came before deadline. 25.8% turnout.

    http://order-order.com/2015/06/23/79-of-goldsmiths-constituents-backzac/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    Zac Goldsmith has won backing from his voters to run for Mayor and now likely Tory candidate, as yougov showed he could beat Khan, though Jowell would beat Zac
    http://order-order.com/2015/06/23/79-of-goldsmiths-constituents-backzac/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    Based on comments on this thread, it looks like Khan should be a bit shorter than Jowell for the nomination but the other way round for the mayoralty.

    No surprise to see Zac favourite. Guido has the results of his endorsement ballot:

    YES: 15,802 79%

    NO: 3569 18%

    Don’t Know: 503 2%

    Spoilt: 16

    77,071 ballots sent out, 19,890 came before deadline. 25.8% turnout.

    http://order-order.com/2015/06/23/79-of-goldsmiths-constituents-backzac/

    Who was that wise PBer that tipped Zac at 22/1?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    #Toriesforkhan
    #ToriesforCooper
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Miss Plato, yes. They're a perfect genetic splicing of lemurs and octopuses, endowed with a multiplicity of limbs and psychic powers.

    Indonesian mimic octopus. Stripey, cunning, intelligent, and generally one the best animals on the planet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os6HD-sCRn8
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    O/T There was adiscussion on arecent thread about the meaning of the word "eurosceptic"

    The original Sceptics ". . . were a school of philosophers, admirers of Pyrrho of Elis (c360-270BC) who allegedly accompanied Alexander the Great on his campaign in India and may have studied Indian beliefs.

    Different sceptics held different views - but all are versions of the theme of taking nothing on trust, and that is what the word has come to mean.

    "Skeptikos" in Greek is related to "skeptomai" meaning "look at carefully". And to the noun "skope", meaning lookout (which of course gives us periscope - peri means "around"), and more distantly to our word "spy".

    The word "eurosceptic" appeared in the 1970s, but was not common till later. Even The Spectator archive, a treasure-house of euroscepticism, records it just once in June 1971, and not again until 1989.

    We will see a good bit more of the word in the coming months."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-33237491
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    edited June 2015
    Former chief inspector of schools Chris Woodhead has died
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33237986
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Based on comments on this thread, it looks like Khan should be a bit shorter than Jowell for the nomination but the other way round for the mayoralty.

    No surprise to see Zac favourite. Guido has the results of his endorsement ballot:

    YES: 15,802 79%

    NO: 3569 18%

    Don’t Know: 503 2%

    Spoilt: 16

    77,071 ballots sent out, 19,890 came before deadline. 25.8% turnout.

    http://order-order.com/2015/06/23/79-of-goldsmiths-constituents-backzac/

    Who was that wise PBer that tipped Zac at 22/1?
    I look forward to my head-to-head with Henry ;-)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    We maybe getting two EU referendums.

    Head of the out campaign

    http://bit.ly/1SFQtsn

    He's wrestling with the problem that I identified a couple of weeks ago, which is that a coherent view of what Out means will never be agreed upon. Hence my idea that the Out campaign should follow the theme "Not Good Enough", allowing those who want further concessions from the EU to unite with those who want out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    Based on comments on this thread, it looks like Khan should be a bit shorter than Jowell for the nomination but the other way round for the mayoralty.

    No surprise to see Zac favourite. Guido has the results of his endorsement ballot:

    YES: 15,802 79%

    NO: 3569 18%

    Don’t Know: 503 2%

    Spoilt: 16

    77,071 ballots sent out, 19,890 came before deadline. 25.8% turnout.

    http://order-order.com/2015/06/23/79-of-goldsmiths-constituents-backzac/

    Who was that wise PBer that tipped Zac at 22/1?
    I look forward to my head-to-head with Henry ;-)
    You'll both be in my shadow when Liz Kendall becomes Labour leader, backed and retipped at 50/1 and 20/1.

    Though I'm not sure I've ever mentioned that on PB.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    HYUFD said:

    Former chief inspector of schools Chris Woodhead has died
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33237986

    Very sad news. RIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    antifrank said:

    We maybe getting two EU referendums.

    Head of the out campaign

    http://bit.ly/1SFQtsn

    He's wrestling with the problem that I identified a couple of weeks ago, which is that a coherent view of what Out means will never be agreed upon. Hence my idea that the Out campaign should follow the theme "Not Good Enough", allowing those who want further concessions from the EU to unite with those who want out.
    It would be a clever strategy. I can't see Cameron agreeing to it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    Casino Yes he was not always popular in some quarters, but he had a ferocious work ethic and was still doing his ST column last Sunday
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Bet tip: Goldsmith for Conservative candidate:

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/london-mayor?ev_oc_grp_ids=2083343

    Zac Goldsmith should be more like 1-5 rather than 1-2 I think.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited June 2015

    antifrank said:
    Shit. Time to trade out.
    Hold your nerve. Poll's actually got quite a decent record of tipping unelectable losers to lead Labour (she was Pro Brown and Pro rEd - Until it became obvious they were both unelectable and things went sour...)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    AWESOME AWESOME AWESOME :open_mouth:
    Anorak said:

    Miss Plato, yes. They're a perfect genetic splicing of lemurs and octopuses, endowed with a multiplicity of limbs and psychic powers.

    Indonesian mimic octopus. Stripey, cunning, intelligent, and generally one the best animals on the planet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os6HD-sCRn8
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,880
    Disraeli said:

    O/T There was adiscussion on arecent thread about the meaning of the word "eurosceptic"

    The original Sceptics ". . . were a school of philosophers, admirers of Pyrrho of Elis (c360-270BC) who allegedly accompanied Alexander the Great on his campaign in India and may have studied Indian beliefs.

    Different sceptics held different views - but all are versions of the theme of taking nothing on trust, and that is what the word has come to mean.

    "Skeptikos" in Greek is related to "skeptomai" meaning "look at carefully". And to the noun "skope", meaning lookout (which of course gives us periscope - peri means "around"), and more distantly to our word "spy".

    The word "eurosceptic" appeared in the 1970s, but was not common till later. Even The Spectator archive, a treasure-house of euroscepticism, records it just once in June 1971, and not again until 1989.

    We will see a good bit more of the word in the coming months."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-33237491

    I'm not a fan of the phrase - to me it smacks of being dragged along by the current but having a good (though ineffectual) winge about it whilst you do so. Who is still 'skeptical' of the EU these days? Who has 'misgivings' after decades as part of the venal, corrupt, bureaucratic, power-hungry anti-democratic redundant sclerotic declining customs union?

    There are three things you can be in my opinion - for it, against it, or insufficiently informed about it. Going along with it but being 'jolly cross' doesn't cut the mustard any more.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    Zac Goldsmith has won backing from his voters to run for Mayor and now likely Tory candidate, as yougov showed he could beat Khan, though Jowell would beat Zac
    http://order-order.com/2015/06/23/79-of-goldsmiths-constituents-backzac/

    This result is a big boost for the Jowell camp - she is the only candidate that can stop the Tories.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    GIN1138 said:

    antifrank said:
    Shit. Time to trade out.
    Hold your nerve. Poll's actually got quite a decent record of tipping unelectable losers to lead Labour (she was Pro Brown and Pro rEd - Until it became obvious they were both unelectable and things went sour...)
    Yes, I know - it was a joke really. Polly is always worth reading even if I rarely agree with her.

    I am +17 Yvette, +8 Andy, -2 Liz and -11 Jeremy.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    HYUFD said:

    Cooper has a bit of the northern too

    A teeny, tiny, wee bit by virtue of her place of birth.

    Otherwise, being raised and educated in Hampshire, followed by a degree at Oxford, makes her very much a Southerner.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Bet tip: Goldsmith for Conservative candidate:

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/london-mayor?ev_oc_grp_ids=2083343

    Zac Goldsmith should be more like 1-5 rather than 1-2 I think.

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/700933/#Comment_700933 :p

    EDIT: actually, with Nick de Bois signed up as Zac's chairman I think Zac is 1/16 here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    edited June 2015
    TGOHF Indeed, Yougov in their Evening Standard Poll had Jowell leading Zac 35% - 26%, but Khan level with Zac on 29% each, Labour members may bear that in mind when they cast their votes
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Pulpstar said:

    Bet tip: Goldsmith for Conservative candidate:

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/london-mayor?ev_oc_grp_ids=2083343

    Zac Goldsmith should be more like 1-5 rather than 1-2 I think.

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/700933/#Comment_700933 :p

    EDIT: actually, with Nick de Bois signed up as Zac's chairman I think Zac is 1/16 here.
    He has the tricky matter of overcoming Sol though :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    PBers, let me introduce you to this year's winner of the Darwin award

    Los Angeles | An L.A. gang member, Nazario Conchuza Gonzalez, who is part of the infamous Ms-13 gang, also called Mara Salvatrucha, has died of medical complications after attempting to gold plate his own genitals to celebrate his 17th anniversary.

    http://bit.ly/1IwmuvD
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,990
    watford30 Indeed, Kendall was born in Hertfordshire and went to Watford Grammar, Corbyn was born in Chippenham and went to Adams Grammar School in Shropshire. Cooper was born in Inverness but went to a Hampshire comp and 6th form college, Burnham was born in Liverpool and went to a St Helens Catholic school so he is really the most northern of the candidates
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    PBers, let me introduce you to this year's winner of the Darwin award

    Los Angeles | An L.A. gang member, Nazario Conchuza Gonzalez, who is part of the infamous Ms-13 gang, also called Mara Salvatrucha, has died of medical complications after attempting to gold plate his own genitals to celebrate his 17th anniversary.

    http://bit.ly/1IwmuvD

    Hmm Having him as a neighbour could adversely impact the value of your home.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    PBers, let me introduce you to this year's winner of the Darwin award

    Los Angeles | An L.A. gang member, Nazario Conchuza Gonzalez, who is part of the infamous Ms-13 gang, also called Mara Salvatrucha, has died of medical complications after attempting to gold plate his own genitals to celebrate his 17th anniversary.

    http://bit.ly/1IwmuvD

    What an idiot.

    Everyone knows you should use this:

    http://www.daler-rowney.com/content/goldfinger
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157
    Moses_ said:

    Sky news
    Titanic Composer Feared Dead In Plane Crash
    James Horner has not been heard from since the single-engine aircraft registered to him crashed in southern California.

    RIP James Horner - his score to Star Trek 2: The Wrath of Khan is probably my favourite film score of all time. He also did Aliens.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2015

    PBers, let me introduce you to this year's winner of the Darwin award

    Los Angeles | An L.A. gang member, Nazario Conchuza Gonzalez, who is part of the infamous Ms-13 gang, also called Mara Salvatrucha, has died of medical complications after attempting to gold plate his own genitals to celebrate his 17th anniversary.

    http://bit.ly/1IwmuvD


    GGG - gilded gelded gangsta...

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157

    Moses_ said:

    Morning all.

    Sadiq Khan ‘has won the support of Oona King and Ken Livingstone.’

    Tessa Jowell should highlight that in her campaign bumf. :lol:

    "Has the support of the left wing unions" ..... (Enough to make most shudder)
    Khan has the backing of both Unite, and the GMB. No wonder the Labour leader of the London Assembly is worried about a stich up.
    SICIMOL?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    Moses_ said:

    Sky news
    Titanic Composer Feared Dead In Plane Crash
    James Horner has not been heard from since the single-engine aircraft registered to him crashed in southern California.

    RIP James Horner - his score to Star Trek 2: The Wrath of Khan is probably my favourite film score of all time. He also did Aliens.
    Some of the score from The Wrath of Khan was reused in Aliens.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    PBers, let me introduce you to this year's winner of the Darwin award

    Los Angeles | An L.A. gang member, Nazario Conchuza Gonzalez, who is part of the infamous Ms-13 gang, also called Mara Salvatrucha, has died of medical complications after attempting to gold plate his own genitals to celebrate his 17th anniversary.

    http://bit.ly/1IwmuvD


    Au Balls.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157

    Moses_ said:

    Sky news
    Titanic Composer Feared Dead In Plane Crash
    James Horner has not been heard from since the single-engine aircraft registered to him crashed in southern California.

    RIP James Horner - his score to Star Trek 2: The Wrath of Khan is probably my favourite film score of all time. He also did Aliens.
    Some of the score from The Wrath of Khan was reused in Aliens.
    He also did Braveheart and Avatar!
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