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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll has CON and LAB level pegging with Boris as lea

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited March 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll has CON and LAB level pegging with Boris as leader

The YouGov detail that shows the Tories level-pegging if Boris was leader twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

Read the full story here


Comments

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited March 2013
    What, a Boris Bounce.

    Even Gordon had a honeymoon period.

    First first.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    cameron is toast...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    dr_spyn said:

    cameron is toast...

    As are all politicians. The exception are the one or two who leave before the toaster is fired up.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    No appetite for RED....i
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tim said:

    Key facts.
    UKIP switchers don't hate Boris like they do Dave and



    Among 2010 Tories Dave leads Boris 43-39
    Among Men Dave leads Boris 38-35
    Among Women Boris leads Dave 39-31


    Just further proof of Daves women problem

    Alternative view is that if a theoretical triviality like swapping Dave for Boris can sway so many women voters, then there is a good chance that Dave can rediscover his charm and smarm all those women back into his welcoming clutches.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's of considerably more importance for internal Tory party politics than as a test of the idea of Boris Johnson as Conservative party leader. In the real world, Boris Johnson would not be just a character or an image, he would be leading a party with tangible policies.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    So, the thesis is that swapping one old Etonian for another old Etonian, whose political position is almost indistinguishable from, though marginally to the left of, the first old Etonian and whose personal behaviour in various aspects has been less admirable, but who is great with words, would cause a six-point shift, nearly all from those on the right.

    Hmm...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    More PB Tory anecdotes

    Public Sector Net Borrowing
    (excl. financial interventions)
    All figures end March except
    2012/13 which is end Feb 
    |========================|
    |PM:  Blair              |
    |CoE: Brown              |
    |2001-2005  £bn          |
    |------------------------|
    |2001/2     0.8          |
    |2002/3    26.0  3,150%  |
    |2003/4    33.3     28%  |
    |2004/5    41.1     23%  |
    |                        |
    |Net Borrowing           |
    |increased        5,038% |
    |                        |
    |========================|
    |PM:  Blair/Brown        |
    |CoE: Brown/Darling      |
    |2005-2010  £bn          |
    |------------------------|
    |2005/6    37.9     (8%) |    
    |2006/7    33.1    (13%) |
    |2007/8    36.7     15%  |
    |2008/9    97.5    166%  |
    |2009/10  158.9     63%  |
    |                        |
    |Net Borrowing           |
    |increased         287%  |
    |                        |
    |========================|
    |PM:  Cameron            |
    |CoE: Osborne            |
    |2010-      £bn          |
    |------------------------|
    |2010/11  140.9    (11%) |
    |2011/12  120.9    (14%) |
    |2012/13   66.9    (45%) |
    |                        |
    |Net Borrowing           |
    |reduced           (58%) |
    |========================|
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2013
    @Tim

    'UKIP switchers don't hate Boris like they do Dave'

    But they all hate Red.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Random and perhaps unexpected F1 fact: if Massa beats Alonso in Chinese qualifying he'll be the first team mate to ever beat the Spaniard in qualifying five times in a row:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21967511

    Looks like 2013 could be the year of the inter-team rivalry (even moreso than usual).
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @AveryLP

    Interesting figures,just goes to show that Labour couldn't even manage the money during the so called good times.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2013
    Surely not! Mr Pork was assuring us, assuring us, that the Labour lead was ROBUST.

    This poll is an inverted pyramid of piffle! To borrow a phrase.

    Either that or its sausages for porkie.....

    Meanwhile,

    Best Leader
    Con: Cameron 58, Boris 29.
    Lab: Cameron 23, Boris 43.
    LibD: Cameron 47, Boris 34.
    UKIP: Cameron 21, Boris 51.

    So replacing Cameron with Boris would succeed in pissing off the people who want to vote for you! But would amuse those who have decided not to.....

    Labour voters, no doubt, only wish to add to the gaiety of the nation.....
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited March 2013
    Speaking as a puritan lefty let me say that I hope the Tories go the whole hog with Boris.

    Edit PS: What's all this stuff about "badges"? Or not.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    john_zims said:

    @AveryLP

    Interesting figures,just goes to show that Labour couldn't even manage the money during the so called good times.

    It all translates to the thread discussion too.

    Tories are unlikely to borrow a new leader from the London mayoralty.

    But can we trust Labour not to borrow a new leader from a New York charity?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @richard
    They won't swap Etonians but they need a leader acceptable to women.

    All Etonians are acceptable to women.

    Trust a leftie not to check the bank balance first.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    AveryLP said:

    But can we trust Labour not to borrow a new leader from a New York charity?

    Nah...Major is going to the UN.....assuming Minor wins in 2015.....

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    I see the "mortgage" file has gone to the DPP. No doubt it will get blanket coverage on the been once the journal end their strike!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Is the Easter recess a time to revisit old news.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21969990

    Plodgate/plebgate buck passing. A very odd incident, worsened by the media fuss and Cameron's unsure footing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    'Plebgate' evidence has gone to the CPS:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21969990
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Oops - should be as below - the perils of predictive text!

    I see the "mortgage" file has gone to the DPP. No doubt it will get blanket coverage on the beeb once the journos end their strike!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2013
    "It'll all be over in a week...'

    "Restrictions on cash withdrawals, money transfers and the movement of cash in and out of Cyprus could remain in place for a month, the foreign minister says."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21970655

    No one saw that coming......
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    @AveryLP
    Let's look at what underlying public sector net borrowing ("PSNB") is, according to HM Treasury, Budget 2013, HC 1033, (London, 2013). At table B5 on p. 104, we discover the following figures.
    (1) In 2011-2012, underlying PSNB was £121 billion (7.9% of of GDP). The cyclically-adjusted underlying budget deficit was 6.0% of GDP.
    (2) In 2012-2013, underlying PSNB is £121 billion (7.8% of GDP). The cyclically-adjusted underlying budget deficit is 5.9% of GDP.
    (3) In 2013-2014, underlying PSNB will be £120 billion (7.5% of GDP). The cyclically-adjusted underlying budget deficit will be 5.1% of GDP.
    I know the loons on here will continue to believe the spin, but the figures are clear. This government has given up on deficit reduction (if, indeed, it ever had any commitment to it in the first place) and has begun an attempt to stoke a pre-election credit boom by printing money, and has broadened the extent of its giveaways to special interest groups in a period of "austerity". It is a joke. Roll on 2015.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Has nobody noticed that Con is only 6% behind with Cameron named as leader - compared to 10% in the "normal" YouGov poll.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    I know the loons on here will continue to believe the spin, but the figures are clear. This government has given up on deficit reduction ... It is a joke. Roll on 2015.

    Err, yes, the figures are clear, the deficit is falling (I note you didn't bother to quote the key figure, which was the 2009-10 starting point).

    Quite how you think these figures support your eccentric view that the government has given up deficit reduction is a complete mystery, exceeded only by your even more bonkers view that somehow 2015 will provide an opportunity to change course in the direction you seem to want. What do you want - Ed Balls?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @MikeL - to be fair, the 4 point difference is more likely to be because Ed Miliband is named as Labour leader.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Maybe - but EdM is going to be Labour leader and the public are going to see him every night in the GE campaign so the public will know who they are voting for - so the position with him named (ie 6% lead) is possibly more relevant than the "normal" 10% lead.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @Life_ina_market_town

    6.0 to 5.9 to 5.1 is not a "reduction"?

    And who do you think will deliver a better outcome in 2015?
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited March 2013
    re @RichardNabavi
    A £1 billion reduction in underlying public sector net borrowing over two years is as close to giving up on deficit reduction as can be imagined, especially given that the economy is growing, albeit very slowly. The government is forecast to reduce the underlying deficit from circa £150 billion in 2009-2010 to circa £120 billion in 2013-2014. Let's be honest, had that been put to you in 2009-2010, you would have said it was a fiscally irresponsible path, given that was the Conservative Party line at the time.

    I didn't say that I thought 2015 would necessarily result in a change of course. But wasn't Callaghan more austere than Heath? I don't think there is any reason to assume Ed Balls as Chancellor would necessarily result in more extravagant spending than what we have witnessed under Osborne. In any event, the incumbent government is tired, incompetent, arrogant and illiberal. I want it out, even if the replacement is of a similar nature.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Betting post:

    I think there is some value in an E/W bet on Richie Porte in the 2013 TdF at odds of 100-1 with Stan James. Top 3 pay, hes been in good form and is Chris Froome's lieutenant.

    OGH recommended a similiar bet on Uran in the vuelta which didn't come off but still I think the Porte bet is value. Wiggo will be too knackered after the Giro to podium or sky may do a 1 2 3, they have been very dominant thus far.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    If that's it with Boris, the Tories would be mad to switch (not that they will). Parity with Labour under EdM before Boris has to start tacling hard policy-based questions on a regular basis is not an unanswerable case for leadership.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    End of the road for Bersani in Italy. He gave the mandate back to Napolitano after failures to reach an agreement with other parties to form a government with a majority.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,441
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Random and perhaps unexpected F1 fact: if Massa beats Alonso in Chinese qualifying he'll be the first team mate to ever beat the Spaniard in qualifying five times in a row:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21967511

    Looks like 2013 could be the year of the inter-team rivalry (even moreso than usual).

    Are they any markets about whether Horner will be team principle at Red Bull next season? He's handled this really badly, especially given the problems between Webber and Vettel a few years ago.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    @Lord Justice Howl

    You are very dyspeptic today. Fear not, the Lenten fast is soon to be abated. We can all eat Pork on Sunday.

    George's fiscal mandate on the deficit is very 'clear':

    to balance the cyclically-adjusted current budget (CACB) by the end of a rolling, five-year period, which is now 2017-18

    Indeed the OBR conclude in their March Economic and Fiscal Outlook that "that the Government has a greater than 50 per cent chance of meeting the fiscal mandate." And this forecast was made without taking full account of the 2013 budget measures and the February 2013 ONS public sector finances outcomes, both of which should marginally improve the forecast. OBR even concluded that the Government would bring the CACB into surplus a year earlier, 2016-7, than it previously forecast in December.

    So your judgement that George has "given up on deficit reduction" is flawed and will almost certainly be overturned on appeal. George is operating within his fiscal mandate.

    Now I am not one to see an rose garden when confronted with a patch of weeds, so I will admit that there is likely to be an extended cold spring before we can pluck from abundant blooms. George is definitely backloading the rate of deficit reduction and is changing, within the parameters of his fiscal mandate, short term priority and policy emphasis towards growth stimulus.

    The key to this shift is not just political pressure and the need to adjust to worse than expected external pressures on the economy, but - and more importantly - it is designed to prepare the ground for the start of substantial asset sales.

    The 'nationalised' banks are the key focus of the moment. Increasing their capital base is necessary to put them into a condition and market valuation which will enable the government to sell its shares. Hence the BoE RPC announcement that Lloyds and RBoS will need to find an additional £20 bn of capital by the end of 2013. And hence the as yet un-announced policy of the BoE to switch its QE efforts to buying out substantial chunks of the two banks's mortgage books in order to get them off their balance sheet and reduce capitalisation requirements and free lending capacity.

    So, if the plans go right, we are looking at 2014 being a year of the government selling substantial shares in newly recapitalised and revalued banks. And a year in which the government will be the largest provider of mortgage finance to the UK household sector.

    This shift in policy is not accounted for in the OBR forecasts due to its likely transformational impact on public finances. The OBR can only predict outcomes based on known economic outcomes and already announced future fiscal and monetary policies.

    This makes the current OBR forecasts a useful snapshot of current expectations but a poor indicator of future outcomes.

    My advice, melud, is to remember FE's great aphorism:

    The world continues to offer glittering prizes to those who have stout hearts and sharp swords.

    Prepare to bow down before the almighty George in 2015. His resurrection is nigh.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jessop, I thought you were going to ask about Brawn.

    Horner will remain, I would guess. He has been principal when the team won a triple double (both titles three years running). Plus he's willing to work in the environment that sees Helmut Marko as Mateschitz's presence on Earth.

    However, they have really handled this badly, and at the minute it looks like there won't be even a token punishment for Vettel. They *may* axe Horner rather than try and punish Vettel. Personally, I doubt it.

    There's no market I'm aware of, but I only use Ladbrokes and Betfair, so there might be elsewhere.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited March 2013
    This is BRILLIANT!!! Please watch!!!

    At 4:10 Farage says "the prison population should virtually double..."

    Check out the look on the audience members face....


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv5Jsf_PLvk&feature=youtube_gdata_player
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So, let's see. With Cameron, Tories stay the same, with Boris they lose one point over last week. Miliband gains against both, as you would expect.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    End of the road for Bersani in Italy. He gave the mandate back to Napolitano after failures to reach an agreement with other parties to form a government with a majority.

    His best bet, Andrea, is to pop some funny pills and rule Italy as a mad man.

    Apparently he believes this is the only option left for your country!

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @sam This would be a more appropriate reaction:

    http://i.imgur.com/gv0yY.png

    Where does Nigel Farage think he's going to conjure up the prison places from? Is he literally going to build castles in the air?
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited March 2013
    @AveryLP
    The first part of the fiscal mandate is indeed 'clear': to be able to demonstrate that the government will balance the books within the next five years. It is as bad as the "golden rule" it replaced, and is textbook Gordon Brown. Had a Labour Chancellor proposed it, the coalition's supporters would have cried out that it was fiscally irresponsible. That was why, in the emergency budget of June 2010, the Chancellor recognised that in order for his deficit reduction plan to have any credibility at all, the first part of the fiscal mandate would have to be supplemented by a second: that net debt should be falling as a % of GDP by 2015-2016. The Chancellor is forecast to miss widely the terms of his own mandate. No one can sensibly argue that a £1 billion reduction in underlying PSNB in two fiscal years of economic growth amounts to a serious program of consolidation.

    It is nothing less than heresy to say that Cameron (Brasenose) and Osborne (Magdalen) are fit to, or will indeed, live up to an aphorism of F.E. (Wadham). He is out of their league.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Might as well go down laughing.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    @antifrank

    Did you watch the video????

    Extend the existing prisons was his answer, but you should watch the clip anyway
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    o/t Just got in to the good news that FG won yesterday's Dail by-election. The winnings wont pay for too many cocktails tonight but hopefully others got a little more on it than I did.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    The Cypriot finance minister announcing banking constraints to last a month, contradicting “earlier estimates that curbs would end in days.”

    Cypriot Banks are truly buggered if that is the case -and the monthly salaries due this weekend? Eek!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Looks like Boris was not harmed by the documentary on him this week and that on present polling he could be the only Tory to deny Ed Miliband an overall majority! While making no gains from Labour, Boris makes big inroads into the UKIP vote and a little bit into the LD vote too!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New Bundestag poll:

    Infratest dimap:

    CDU/CSU: 39%
    SPD: 28%
    Green: 15%
    Linke: 8%
    FDP: 4%
    Pirates: 3%
    Others: 3%

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
  • samsam Posts: 727
    @tim

    Well I completely disagree with you on that. What convinced me to vote UKIP next time was reading their manifesto.

    You sound awfully dismissive and haughty there, rather "closet racist" in patronising tone.


    Anyway obv no one is watching the video, it wasn't to press home a UKIP Policy it was more the audience members reaction, and who it was, but anyway...
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    The shift is all from Kippers to Con; looks clear that the Kippers prefer BoJo to DC.

    Show's how soft the UKIP vote share is.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Nobody knows or cares what UKIP policies actually are, people just project onto the blank screen whatever they think

    From the party which is studiously avoiding having any policies that's a bit rich.

  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Just watched a BBC Cyprus report desperate to show the masses queuing up to get their money out. It looked like more reporters than customers,they need to be very careful not to fan the flames and encourage a run.
    Very bad news for the Cypriots,and anyone with money in their banks,and a warning to the rest of us,just what happens when the money tree no longer bears fruit.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    tim said:

    Nobody knows or cares what UKIP policies actually are, ... None of the detail matters.

    Wise words, tim.

    But UKIP is not alone in pursuing this electoral strategy.

    At least reintroducing Pullman cars on our train network, invading Iran and doubling the size of our prisons is more fun than Ed's blank sheet of paper.

    If nothing else it will help Carola 'Carry on Laughing'.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    tim said:

    Nobody knows or cares what UKIP policies actually are, people just project onto the blank screen whatever they think makes their immigration obsession respectable.
    So for some it's European directives,courgette shapes and so on, for others it's a dismantling of political correctness "they banned Christmas" and for others they beilieve it's policy to legalise drugs rather than doubling prison places.

    None of the detail matters.

    Bit like Labour then ;)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    sam said:

    @tim

    Well I completely disagree with you on that. What convinced me to vote UKIP next time was reading their manifesto.

    You sound awfully dismissive and haughty there, rather "closet racist" in patronising tone.


    Anyway obv no one is watching the video, it wasn't to press home a UKIP Policy it was more the audience members reaction, and who it was, but anyway...

    What is UKIP's policy on drugs out of interest. I'm not having a go, I'm genuinely curious.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    antifrank said:

    @sam This would be a more appropriate reaction:

    http://i.imgur.com/gv0yY.png

    Where does Nigel Farage think he's going to conjure up the prison places from? Is he literally going to build castles in the air?

    Personally, I would favour turning east Falkland into a penal colony. Two birds with one stone.

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    It would be rude of me to intrude on the argument (below) about the OBR's (and others) view of the accuracy of Osborne's medium term financial planning and projections for the UK's economy up to 2017/18.

    I'll simply repeat my forecast (made many times, over many years) that there will be NO growth in the UK's GDP for the foreseeable future, over and above that of the growth in population and any rise in national borrowing (which includes QE).

    That being the case, tax revenues will be ~level for the next decade on unchanged tax rates and exemptions (etc). Over the same period, again on unchanged policies, State spending will rise by 3-5% pa, mainly due to Welfare spending, but also due to the ring-fencing of Health, Education, Overseas Aid and near-protection of Defence.

    The sums simply do not add up, nor remotely begin to add up - under no possible projections of any merit does the State income and expenditure move into a sustained fiscal surplus of over £100 billion for 20-30 years, thus allowing our mountain of debt to be repaid.

    So, ladies and gentlemen of the Treasury, please spell out how you envisage a £200 -£250 billion pa turn-around from the current Treasury position - on an economy that's essentially of the same size as that of today.

    The implications are truly outside the realms of anything this country (or any other) has survived outside a war of survival and indicate that a revolution, in some form or other, is absolutely inevitable: even a decade or more of 10-20% inflation would not be sufficient. The reality is that the entire concept of 'universal benefits' must end; the pension age must rise almost immediately to 75, and on to 80 by 2030ish; schooling and health must be funded in part at least, directly by the consumer; Councils must revert to doing the basics and ONLY the basics; the entire Soc Ser set-up and objectives must be rethought from the ground up, based on The Poor Laws (or similar); Overseas Aid must all but end; all 'nice to have' legislation must go, such that producing the best product at lowest cost (on a global measure) must be the only aim of Govt policy.

    Faffing about with a % here of there on Stamp Duty; on minor tweaks to Universal Credit (etc) do not remotely begin to cut the mustard - we're looking at reducing State expenditure by 28-35% from current levels - IN CASH TERMS.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    sam said:

    @antifrank

    Did you watch the video????

    Extend the existing prisons was his answer, but you should watch the clip anyway

    Perhaps he spends his time watching Discovery Channel programmes on mega-skyscrapers, and fancies a vertical prison one mile high. I'm not sure that the infrastructure of Durham or Norwich gaols would be up to supporting that, but I suppose it's a step ahead of forcing the prisoners to dig a tunnel between northern Ireland and Scotland. I expect that some UKIP supporters regard his prison policies as dangerously progressive.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    @richard
    They won't swap Etonians but they need a leader acceptable to women.

    I thought the evidence is clear that Boris is very popular with the ladies, indeed he seems to have trouble keeping his trousers on when in their company.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    @Pulpstar

    I cant remember!

    What I liked about them was obv the get out of the EU part, the re introduction of Grammar schools, the raising of the level of paying tax to £13,000, and the way that they don't try and be all things to all men, they say what they mean which I find less patronising than Cameron trying to be tough on immigration and pro gay marriage, Clegg abolishing tuition fees and trebling them , and Lablour letting i n hundreds of thousands of immigrants and calling the working class people that feel the effects racist, while counting on their tribal vote.

    My own view on drugs, having tried all bar crack and smack, is they should be illegal and people that have never tried them should be too afraid of the punishment for doing so to ever begin.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    @asjohnstone

    Well given that most of those voters have only recently given up their support for the Conservatives that's hardly surprising. However, its only half of the vote share increase that UKIP have experienced. If UKIP were to poll just around 7/8% that would still be a major advance and would still only equate to half of what the Libdems lost (and Labour have gained) in agreeing to join the Conservatives in coalition.

    If the UKIP/Tory vote is soft then the Labour/Libdem vote is still probably softer........
  • samsam Posts: 727
    @antifrank

    Half cell size?

    If you don't like it don't break the law

    F*** em

    Please watch the video from 4:10 please!!!!!!!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    @Life_ina_market_town

    It is nice to have a rolling five year target, melud. Makes for comfortable living and flexible policy.

    I was aware that the OBR is forecasting that George will not meet the debt to GDP ratio part of his fiscal mandate on current policies and outcomes. I wasn't cherrypicking the good news by excluding it from my earlier posts - "honest!". The real reason was that the debt forecast is far more sensitive to the impact of asset sales than the CACB. If I am arguing that George's current plan is to bring forward the sale of bank shares to improve fiscal performance and accelerate growth, then this itself makes comment on the debt ratio redundant.

    If George pulls off the asset sales the debt to GDP ratio target will be easily achieved. It is in this context that the current OBR forecast is irrelevant.

    CACB is more important. Even so the current forecast of a £1 billion reduction by 2015 seems highly unlikely. In fact I would bet that it will fall by more than that by the end of this fiscal year. Such is the insensitivity of economic forecasting to reality!

    Wadham? Is that the one behind the Kings Arms?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    sam said:

    @antifrank

    Half cell size?

    If you don't like it don't break the law

    F*** em

    Please watch the video from 4:10 please!!!!!!!

    Perhaps we should just be incarcerating shorter people, to meet Nigel Farage's prison quotas. Midgets and contortionists would become proscribed persons.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    @antifrank

    Maybe!

    Please watch no one else has!
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    sam said:

    @Pulpstar

    My own view on drugs, having tried all bar crack and smack, is they should be illegal and people that have never tried them should be too afraid of the punishment for doing so to ever begin.

    What level of punishment / sentence would you need to achieve that?
    For example, possession of an 1/8th of weed?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    sam said:

    @antifrank

    Maybe!

    Please watch no one else has!

    Sam, I watched and greatly enjoyed the clip. I would recommend it to all pbers.

    I loved the way Paxo openly patronised Farage with Farage realising exactly what was going on but being unable to counter as it would blow his cover.

    Great entertainment.

  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    @antifrank

    it's Huhne.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "All congenital heart surgery has been suspended at Leeds General Infirmary with immedate effect, according to Sky sources.

    The suspension of both adult and children's surgery follows a number of claims, including some relating to patient outcomes.

    The decision was taken after discussions with the NHS Commissioning Board and the Care Quality Commission."
    http://news.sky.com/story/1071193/congenital-heart-surgery-halted-at-hospital
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Everyone and his aunt was saying only last Sunday that Boris had been Maired and was finished forever. What a comeback! Good old Boris!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tim said:

    How many UKIP supporters know what their last manifesto said, the people who wrote it excepted?

    You could ask the same question of supporters of the three main parties.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2013
    Nobody knows or cares what Labour policies actually are, people just project onto the blank piece of paper whatever they think.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Talking of policies - is it correct that Farage thinks that women of child bearing age should not be employed because they are a burden to employers?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    @Hertsmere_Pubgoer

    I think that weed is a very serious drug, constant use in teenage years has given many people I know anxiety attacks that turned them into v heavy drinkers

    So I would say a month in borstal for under 18s and three months in prison for adults.

    Feel v hypocritical saying this. But I wish I had never taken drugs, unfortunately there ws nothing to scare my curiosity. I see my friends kids innocent faces and it makes me shudder to think they might do the things we did to ourselves

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    UKIP General Secretary Jonathan Arnott: UKIP membership has today passed 24,000.

    That to my reckoning is a growth of about 8000 since early January. So, laying a field base for further growth?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    @Sam

    Is it UKIP policy to impose Grammar Schools or have local votes?

    I think the parent can choose... Something called school vouchers I think... I am going to vote for them but don't know every policy inside out I'm afraid

    No 11 plus though, more of an all round assessment
  • samsam Posts: 727
    AveryLP said:

    sam said:

    @antifrank

    Maybe!

    Please watch no one else has!

    Sam, I watched and greatly enjoyed the clip. I would recommend it to all pbers.

    I loved the way Paxo openly patronised Farage with Farage realising exactly what was going on but being unable to counter as it would blow his cover.

    Great entertainment.


    Was great, and yes Eastwing, Huhne is seen raising his eyebrows at 4:13 when Farage says he wants to double the amount of people behind bars!
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2013
    Surely there can only be two possible legislative frameworks for dealing with 'experience enhancing' or mind-altering drugs:
    a) Punishments are so severe that no-one would risk trying anything.
    b) All drugs are legalised, taxed and licensed dealers sell what they like to any responsible adult.

    The only problem with a) is that of defining what drugs are deemed to be illegal and which legal (assuming nicotine and alcohol are to remain legal - as well as over-the-counter medicines.

    Wherever the line is drawn, both in proscribing drugs and in the level of punishments, there will be cliff-edge effects - which will be somewhat to lawyers' profitable advantage.

    That leaves b) as the only workable, fair solution - ultimately, why should the State interfere in what an adult member of the public wishes to do to their body? Particularly if the State makes money out of the transaction.

    I was once a firm believer in a) but I am now convinced that b) is correct: what's certain is that the current situation profits only criminals and harms many innocent bystanders who get their homes broken into in order to fund addicts' drug habits - and prostitution is no life-style choice to make if, again, it's only to fund a drug habit.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    Has nobody remarked on Huhnes face at 4.10 on the video?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    @AN1

    I first argued for b) in the 1970s. Nothing achieved by prohibition has changed my mind.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    New thread. Avery's there all alone. He'd nodded off.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    CarlottaVance said:

    Surely not! Mr Pork was assuring us, assuring us, that the Labour lead was ROBUST

    So is Cammie standing down tomorrow dear?


    Surely not, Carlotta was assuring us, assuring us, that the Labour lead wasn't ROBUST, "At this stage".

    Try harder dear, tea party tories like yourself seem to have such trouble with the basics.
This discussion has been closed.