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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the date of the EU referendum

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    TGOHF said:

    Serious non PC question : can Yvette "Cooper" resist becoming Mrs Balls ? Is keeping your maiden name compatible with relating to "hard working families" - any stats on % of married women who do or don't take their husbands surnames ?.

    I think it is far more common than you would imagine, certainly in business. No idea of the actual stats but I know plenty of women who use their maiden name for work purposes and their married name for social/private purposes.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2015
    This is a great YouGov piece on the profile of the electorate for the EU referendum:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/22/eu-referendum-looking-ahead/

    This chart is particularly interesting:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/612927150904119298
  • Options
    Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    I agree that Yvette Cooper was undervalued at one point. I think this will ultimately boil down to the 2 "centrist" candidates: Yvette vs. Andy. Liz Cooper is too far on the right and Corbyn is too far on the left. With all due respect though, I don't think Yvette is better value than Andy. I think this is a pretty insightful piece:

    http://betwire.com/articles/bet-on-yvette-is-yvette-cooper-really-the-frontrunner-in-the-labour-leadership?market_id=13048

    This conservative commentator also hits the nail on the head:

    "Of the four Labour candidates, Andy Burnham is the only one capable of striking anti-capitalist poses while appealing to traditional Labour voters. Furthermore he’d have the backing of the party’s union paymasters, but without personally repelling the middle class."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2015/06/why-andy-burnham-is-the-labour-leader-we-should-least-look-forward-to.html

    Of course there also are minuses with Andy. But you've got to put the Mid Staffs scandals in context. Moreover, the supposedly damaging clip in which Liz Kendall attacks Burnham for "putting the party before country" turns out to be nothing but a cheap political shot taken out of context. If Yvette Cooper were to become leader, I think this clip here could prove to be far more damaging:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHfvmpuy3og

    Yvette Cooper comes across as someone who's parked their car on a railroad crossing and is completely in denial about by the approaching steam train. She was completely clueless about the impending meltdown of Labour and can't credibly claim that she will "fix" a problem she never saw coming. As the wife of Ed Balls, she is the "continuity" candidate albeit without his charisma. Guy Oppermann (Conservative MP) got it right:

    "Yvette Cooper may make the final 2. But ...she is portrayed as an ice queen by her own side, sometimes even by her own supporters. Opponents also say she is lacking any fundamental beliefs, whether they are left or right, progressive or traditional labour. She may overcome this. But too many see her as the "diet coke" version of Ed Balls. I cannot see her winning. At least with my nemesis Mr Balls you got some passion, albeit it was normally misguided nonsense. Which leaves the likely winner as Andy Burnham."

    http://guyopperman.blogspot.de/2015/06/the-weekend-read-labour-leadership-race.html
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    English is even an official language in the EU (since 1973) :)
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Serious non PC question : can Yvette "Cooper" resist becoming Mrs Balls ? Is keeping your maiden name compatible with relating to "hard working families" - any stats on % of married women who do or don't take their husbands surnames ?.

    I think it is far more common than you would imagine, certainly in business. No idea of the actual stats but I know plenty of women who use their maiden name for work purposes and their married name for social/private purposes.
    Higher in A-B social classes than D-E I'd guess.

    But so is living with kids as partners - and Ed folded on that stance very early.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Mr Juncker wants a Eurozone Treasury:

    https://euobserver.com/economic/129218
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Plato said:

    David Cameron today vowed to end the culture of handing people 'a few more extra pounds' in benefits as he set attacked the 'merry-go-round' of Britain's welfare state.



    In a major speech on reforming the benefits system, Mr Cameron called for a move from a 'low wage, high tax, high welfare society to a higher wage, lower tax, lower welfare society'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3133823/David-Cameron-vows-stop-benefits-merry-round-consigned-thousands-scrapheap.html

    I think that this is such an important issue, arguably the single most important issue facing the government today: how do we ensure that the poor and poorly educated get some sort of a chance to make something of themselves in our country?

    My.
    I don't think it's possible to justify any more, the ring-fencing of benefits paid to pensioners.
    The oldies do all vote in tremendous numbers though...
    Purely anecdotal, but my parents and their immediate circle of friends, all Tory voters, think the benefits paid to pensioners have now become absurd.
    I think it's a no-brainer that we stop paying wealthy people benefits, whether they're pensioners or not. I think the priority has to be to ensure that we look after the sick and disabled.
    It seems in some cases pensioners entirely reliant on state support are living with a very very comfortable level of existence.

    I remember canvassing someone around the local elections, i think it was 2012 omnishambles budget with the 'granny tax'. It was a real issue, people slamming doors, getting very angry about it. In some areas of the district it can be surprisingly difficult to get the local ward nominations necessary to stand in the local elections, we have a few who can be relied on to sign. A person who had signed nominations for decades said 'no'.

    Of course this 'granny tax' was no such thing. Pensioners benefited from a differential in tax allowances, meaning they had an extra couple of thousand of tax free income. All the government intended to do was to move everyone up to this much better level, the pensioner level wouldnt be cut, it would just be pegged at the same rate as everyone else.

    So the granny was no worse off or better off, but working people were going to end up with the same advantage. Third rail of politics touching pensioner entitlements...

    http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xm9sv9_i-m-old-gimme-gimme-gimme_fun
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623

    TGOHF said:

    Serious non PC question : can Yvette "Cooper" resist becoming Mrs Balls ? Is keeping your maiden name compatible with relating to "hard working families" - any stats on % of married women who do or don't take their husbands surnames ?.

    I think it is far more common than you would imagine, certainly in business. No idea of the actual stats but I know plenty of women who use their maiden name for work purposes and their married name for social/private purposes.
    Mum always uses her maiden name when entering gardening and photography competitions. She feels strongly about women being merely a "Mrs" of a Man.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048

    justin124 said:

    I must admit I did think the idea of holding a referendum that one wants to win in October was a 'courageous' decision.

    July and August may not be good because of of school holidays so maybe September would be the best chance of good weather and so a high turnout of the undecideds/unconcerneds.

    I don't see a problem with October - it used to be the favoured month to hold general elections.
    But not since October 1974...
    Indeed and only 3 times prior to that since WW2 (1951, 1959 & 1964). And in 2 of those 3 the incumbent calling the election lost.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. JEO, entirely unsurprised, it's a natural step for the federalists. They're salami-slicing their way to a state. It's clever, effective, undemocratic and despicable.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    edited June 2015
    O/T Completed my travels on the new London Overground and "TfL Rail" routes this weekend and this morning, Romford to Upminster on Saturday (waves to iSam!), and Liverpool Street to Enfield and Cheshunt earlier today, having done the Shenfield and Chingford lines last weekend.

    New signs with "London Overground" (or "TfL Rail" on Shenfield line) branding abound (except at Cheshunt, Shenfield and Upminster), but only Enfield Town has the full Tube-style "roundel" (albeit Overground Orange, as opposed to Underground Red).
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Not Me.As a pensioner i have to agree with you that pensioners live a very comfortable lifestyle I have to work hard at squandering the magnificent sum of of 143 pounds the Government gives me every week.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    It's ahistorical to claim that there is a special cultural affinity between the US and the UK which overrides our shared history as one of the great nations of Europe. It's undignified to try to co-opt the modern day US as an extension of our own history alone.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. Glenn, what do you mean 'one of'? :p
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Notme ----- it was a labour lie happily taken up by the self regulating press which created the lie
    Chris123 said:

    I agree that Yvette Cooper was undervalued at one point. I think this will ultimately boil down to the 2 "centrist" candidates: Yvette vs. Andy. Liz Cooper is too far on the right and Corbyn is too far on the left. With all due respect though, I don't think Yvette is better value than Andy. I think this is a pretty insightful piece:

    http://betwire.com/articles/bet-on-yvette-is-yvette-cooper-really-the-frontrunner-in-the-labour-leadership?market_id=13048

    This conservative commentator also hits the nail on the head:

    "Of the four Labour candidates, Andy Burnham is the only one capable of striking anti-capitalist poses while appealing to traditional Labour voters. Furthermore he’d have the backing of the party’s union paymasters, but without personally repelling the middle class."

    http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2015/06/why-andy-burnham-is-the-labour-leader-we-should-least-look-forward-to.html

    etc ... snip

    Yvette Cooper comes across as someone who's parked their car on a railroad crossing and is completely in denial about by the approaching steam train. She was completely clueless about the impending meltdown of Labour and can't credibly claim that she will "fix" a problem she never saw coming. As the wife of Ed Balls, she is the "continuity" candidate albeit without his charisma. ....snip

    Hard to disagree with your analysis. The reason Labour are in the mire is because Burnham is their best bet.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TGOHF said:

    Serious non PC question : can Yvette "Cooper" resist becoming Mrs Balls ? Is keeping your maiden name compatible with relating to "hard working families" - any stats on % of married women who do or don't take their husbands surnames ?.

    Why wouldn't it be? Why do you need to take on your husband's name, exactly?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited June 2015

    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    It's ahistorical to claim that there is a special cultural affinity between the US and the UK which overrides our shared history as one of the great nations of Europe. It's undignified to try to co-opt the modern day US as an extension of our own history alone.
    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    "England in effect is insular, she is maritime, she is linked through her exchanges, her markets, her supply lines to the most diverse and often the most distant countries; she pursues essentially industrial and commercial activities, and only slight agricultural ones. She has in all her doings very marked and very original habits and traditions.In short, the nature, the structure, the very situation that are Englands differ profoundly from those of the continentals."
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    It's ahistorical to claim that there is a special cultural affinity between the US and the UK which overrides our shared history as one of the great nations of Europe. It's undignified to try to co-opt the modern day US as an extension of our own history alone.
    The US is not the entirety of the Anglosphere: Australia, Canada, New Zealand - and even Ireland are as much part of it. Of course we share more cultural affinity with them due to the English language, common law, centuries of representative government. The history of the "great nations of Europe" was largely, pre-NATO, being rivals and going to war with one another. That's not co-opting the US as an extension of our own history alone, it's just pointing out how much we have in common.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    JEO said:

    Mr Juncker wants a Eurozone Treasury:

    https://euobserver.com/economic/129218

    Of course. The mistake that they made in setting up the Eurozone was precisely that they didn't put in place the necessary Eurozone governance, and fiscal transfer mechanism, to make it work.

    Surely no-one disagrees with this any more? It's virtually a no-brainer, if you start from the premise (which most of the EU does) that the Euro has to survive.

    We're not part of it, thank goodness, and of course they will need treaty changes to implement it. That is our opportunity. Conversely, ignoring it, or withdrawing to some EEA-like arrangement whilst it happens without us having any say in it, would be a very bad idea.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited June 2015

    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
    Im sure it is done in fun, but it just feels ugly and a little bit sinister. It says "you are disgusting". Many people vote the way they vote out of good decent values. Whether that is Labour, Con, Greens, libdems or UKIP. People can sincerely disagree with you, that doesnt mean they have no value as a human being.

    It turns my stomach a bit. Maybe, as im never really going to change my mind it doesnt matter, but Im sure others who do change their vote will be particularly unimpressed.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
    Forgive me for my ignorance, but was that Attlee or Wilson ?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. Nabavi, must beg to differ.

    The eurozone's unworkable. Dragging it closer together only makes the final collapse all the more terrible.

    Your premise is widely held in the EU, but it's still crackers.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    It's ahistorical to claim that there is a special cultural affinity between the US and the UK which overrides our shared history as one of the great nations of Europe. It's undignified to try to co-opt the modern day US as an extension of our own history alone.
    The US is not the entirety of the Anglosphere: Australia, Canada, New Zealand - and even Ireland are as much part of it. Of course we share more cultural affinity with them due to the English language, common law, centuries of representative government. The history of the "great nations of Europe" was largely, pre-NATO, being rivals and going to war with one another. That's not co-opting the US as an extension of our own history alone, it's just pointing out how much we have in common.
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e3/Anglospeak.svg/1024px-Anglospeak.svg.png

    Dark Blue - English as a majority language
    Light blue - English as an official language where it is non-majority
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Forgive me for my ignorance, but was that Attlee or Wilson ?

    Yes, I was struggling to think of any respected Labour PM, certainly in recent memory.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Not Me.As a pensioner i have to agree with you that pensioners live a very comfortable lifestyle I have to work hard at squandering the magnificent sum of of 143 pounds the Government gives me every week.

    Obviously £143 is not the driver of comfort, its housing benefit, free tv license, winter fuel allowances, free bus passes and free prescriptions. Also importantly, if you are eligible for DLA when you enter retirement, you keep it, even if what was requiring the DLA is no longer there.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    Mr Juncker wants a Eurozone Treasury:

    https://euobserver.com/economic/129218

    Of course. The mistake that they made in setting up the Eurozone was precisely that they didn't put in place the necessary Eurozone governance, and fiscal transfer mechanism, to make it work.

    Surely no-one disagrees with this any more? It's virtually a no-brainer, if you start from the premise (which most of the EU does) that the Euro has to survive.

    We're not part of it, thank goodness, and of course they will need treaty changes to implement it. That is our opportunity. Conversely, ignoring it, or withdrawing to some EEA-like arrangement whilst it happens without us having any say in it, would be a very bad idea.
    You make a persuasive case. If they need us to sign the Treaty then we can push pretty hard indeed: we should be able to get a red card system or immigration limits out of it.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
    Forgive me for my ignorance, but was that Attlee or Wilson ?
    Violet Attlee was a lifelong Tory voter:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violet_Attlee,_Countess_Attlee
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Mr. Nabavi, must beg to differ.

    The eurozone's unworkable. Dragging it closer together only makes the final collapse all the more terrible.

    Your premise is widely held in the EU, but it's still crackers.

    It's unworkable in its current form, as many people pointed out at the time it was created. There's no reason why it should be unworkable if they put in place the governance to make it work, and accept the corresponding loss of self-determination. What they've got at the moment is an unhappy compromise.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2015
    Sean_F said:

    I disagree. The issue is that we have First Past the Post at Westminster so wasted vote syndrome makes it difficult for a party to displace an alternative on the same wing (SNP and Labour both being left). In 2010 I suggest that Labour "borrowed" under Gordon Brown's leadership the votes of those who'd vote for the SNP otherwise. The SNP displaced Labour across the spectrum besides Westminster years before the Indyref, Westminster was the only bastion of SLAB support left. What makes Westminster so special that the SNP couldn't break through there like they had in every other level of election?

    Opinion polls weren't regularly conducted but those that were showed an SNP lead pre-Indyref. In 2012 the SNP polled 39% and prior to the Indyref they were polling 39-40% regularly. Once opinion polls became regular and the idea of an SNP victory became plausible, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-voting-intention-2

    Looking at these numbers, you go from an SNP lead over Labour of low to mid single figures, pre-referendum, to 20% -30% post-referendum.

    The SNP would, in all likelihood, have put on votes strongly, compared to 2010, but the referendum gave them a shot in the arm.
    Its a shame but that link only goes back to 2014 plus there's not many polls pre-Indyref. The Wiki article goes back to 2010: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland

    Big red lead in 2010 has a yellow lead in 2012 and consistent yellow leads from Feb 14 onwards. Yes the extent of the poll lead for the SNP jumps after Lamont's resignation, after the Indyref but the SNP were already in the lead seven months before then. Unfortunately its difficult to check issues in isolation (especially given the paucity of polling) but to credit the change from 2010->15 as just due to the Indyref is fallacious.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    notme said:

    Not Me.As a pensioner i have to agree with you that pensioners live a very comfortable lifestyle I have to work hard at squandering the magnificent sum of of 143 pounds the Government gives me every week.

    Obviously £143 is not the driver of comfort, its housing benefit, free tv license, winter fuel allowances, free bus passes and free prescriptions. Also importantly, if you are eligible for DLA when you enter retirement, you keep it, even if what was requiring the DLA is no longer there.
    Your argument would be valid if pensioners didn't contribute to the Treasury throughout their younger working lives.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
    Violet Attlee was a card! Scared the willies out of Special Branch who struggled to keep up with her when she was driving her husband around during election campaigns....
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    notme said:

    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
    Im sure it is done in fun, but it just feels ugly and a little bit sinister. It says "you are disgusting". Many people vote the way they vote out of good decent values. Whether that is Labour, Con, Greens, libdems or UKIP. People can sincerely disagree with you, that doesnt mean they have no value as a human being.

    It turns my stomach a bit. Maybe, as im never really going to change my mind it doesnt matter, but Im sure others who do change their vote will be particularly unimpressed.
    I know of someone who withdrew his offer to donate blood when the NHS refused to abide by his stipulation that it was not to be given to a Tory voter. However, he was apparently perfectly content to agree to it being given to a cat.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    The term 'Anglosphere' may be recent, but the 'Anglo' description to refer to many of these places is not. 'Anglo-America' goes back a long way.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    And the European Union has had English as an official language since 1973, and more than 51% of EU citizens can understand it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_the_European_Union
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    It's ahistorical to claim that there is a special cultural affinity between the US and the UK which overrides our shared history as one of the great nations of Europe. It's undignified to try to co-opt the modern day US as an extension of our own history alone.
    It's undeniable that there's a special cultural affinity between the UK and the USA (and Canada, Australia, and New Zealand). We speak the same language, and have similar legal systems.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited June 2015
    not me..I don't get any of those benefits except the WFA.. even tho I have paid in to the system since 1955....but don't let that get in the way of your anti old person rant..
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    edited June 2015
    JEO said:

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    The term 'Anglosphere' may be recent, but the 'Anglo' description to refer to many of these places is not. 'Anglo-America' goes back a long way.
    When you speak with Americans its striking how keen they are to lay claim to their European heritage. You'll frequently hear, "I'm Greek," or "I'm Italian," or "I'm Irish" from people you suspect would struggle to place them on the map, but I've never yet heard anyone claim to be German despite it being the largest ethnic group (or English for that matter).
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Richard N's 'a treaty is our opportunity' line is superficially attractive but it just doesn't pass the smell test, does it?

    Every European treaty leads to more integration, and the best the UK manages is to wriggle out of some parts of it - actual reversals don't happen. And if integration can't be done through treaty, it happens through the back door through 'court' judgements etc. Richard knows all of this of course - I'm afraid he is just spinning a line.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    Q. Which Indian Ocean island nation had English as an official language for only a three-year period from 2007-2010?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Pulpstar said:

    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
    Forgive me for my ignorance, but was that Attlee or Wilson ?
    Violet Attlee was a lifelong Tory voter:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violet_Attlee,_Countess_Attlee
    I think its the sign of a very healthy relationship that a political spouse can differ from their other half - (today's spouses seem like cardboard cut outs - Clemmie Churchill had titanic rows with Winston - but like the Attlees were a devoted couple) - otherwise they end up living in an echo chamber - like Twitter:

    Almost four times as many people claim to have voted Labour (2500) than Conservative, (777) on Twitter, according to analysis by Talkwalker, one of Europe’s biggest providers of social analytics, monitoring global on line conversations across all networks and media.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jun/22/cameron-sets-out-his-one-nation-mission-in-a-speech-politics-live#block-55881633e4b0b5dab300be0f
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    justin124 said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
    Im sure it is done in fun, but it just feels ugly and a little bit sinister. It says "you are disgusting". Many people vote the way they vote out of good decent values. Whether that is Labour, Con, Greens, libdems or UKIP. People can sincerely disagree with you, that doesnt mean they have no value as a human being.

    It turns my stomach a bit. Maybe, as im never really going to change my mind it doesnt matter, but Im sure others who do change their vote will be particularly unimpressed.
    I know of someone who withdrew his offer to donate blood when the NHS refused to abide by his stipulation that it was not to be given to a Tory voter. However, he was apparently perfectly content to agree to it being given to a cat.
    Sounds like the Little Britain sketch were the Women's Institute lady vomits copiously in hospital on learning that her kidney donor was a "Mrs. Banerjee".
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623

    JEO said:

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    The term 'Anglosphere' may be recent, but the 'Anglo' description to refer to many of these places is not. 'Anglo-America' goes back a long way.
    When you speak with Americans its striking how keen they are to lay claim to their European heritage. You'll frequently hear, "I'm Greek," or "I'm Italian," or "I'm Irish" from people you suspect would struggle to place them on the map, but I've never yet heard anyone claim to be German despite it being the largest ethnic group (or English for that matter).
    Kirsten Dunst the actress holds both US and German citizenship. Her father is German.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856
    Meanwhile, in the Social Media echo chamber:

    An analysis by Talkwalker, a social media analytics company, has found that Jeremy Corbyn is the most popular of all the candidates on social media. A survey of more than 500,000 posts on places like Twitter and Facebook over the last month found that he was the only candidate with positive comments outweighing negative comments. Burnham achieved the most negative comments. Here are the figures:
    Jeremy Corbyn 30% Positive, 23% Negative

    Liz Kendall 23% Positive, 33% Negative

    Yvette Cooper 21% Positive, 33% Negative

    Andy Burnham: 14% Positive, 61 % Negative,

    Mary Creagh 19% Positive, 24% Negative


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jun/22/cameron-sets-out-his-one-nation-mission-in-a-speech-politics-live#block-55881633e4b0b5dab300be0f
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. Nabavi, well, we'll get to find out.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2015
    runnymede said:

    Richard N's 'a treaty is our opportunity' line is superficially attractive but it just doesn't pass the smell test, does it?

    Every European treaty leads to more integration, and the best the UK manages is to wriggle out of some parts of it - actual reversals don't happen. And if integration can't be done through treaty, it happens through the back door through 'court' judgements etc. Richard knows all of this of course - I'm afraid he is just spinning a line.

    Nonsense. This is a once-in-a-generation chance to gently disengage from more integration. I agree that reversals don't happen, and that the EU in the form of the Eurozone will continue to integrate further, but the key point is that we don't need to be part of it. They've basically given up on us - they now know that we'll never join the Euro - that's a big, big change since the Blair years when it was thought that we were on the same road but needed more time. In addition, the Eurozone crisis has brought home to them the dangers and costs of the original bosh-up.

    Basically, it's an opportunity to get a face-saving deal whereby we nominally remain 'full members' of the EU, but actually aren't.

    Anyway, what is the alternative? Since an EU referendum is unwinnable for the Out side, we're stuck with the poor deal which previous governments, but especially the last Labour government, landed us with. We're not going to stop Eurozone integration (and in any case it's not in our interests to have a dysfunctional Eurozone on our doorstep). We're not going to be able to act as though the EU didn't exist - it completely dominates Europe, and we can't wish it away.

    We have to deal with reality, and get the best settlement we can.

    I'm prepared to admit that I might be being too optimistic. Certainly if you'd asked me in, say, 2008, I'd have said it was impossible to make any progress on this. I now think we have a chance.

    Oh - and I don't spin lines. I only ever post here what I think.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293

    Meanwhile, in the Social Media echo chamber:

    That looks surprisingly good for Kendall.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2015

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    I find that Australia is now very orientated to the Pacific, and with the large number of Mediterranean post war migrants much less British than it was. Similarly both the USA and Canada are far less British than they were a few decades ago. New Zealand more so-apart from the 30% of the population that are ethnically Polynesian. Europe is more Anglophone than it was, particularly in Northern Europ and the Mediterranean it is quite easy to get by in English, and English cultural mores are being adopted by Scandanavian Metal heads to Spanish and Greek ravers.

    I have lived in the USA, Australia and NZ, and while feeling some particular empathy with the antipodes (I have quite a lot of family there), I find that I have more in common in terms of history and culture with the peoples of Continental Europe.

    The Empire is gone. The Dominions and USA do not see us as the future, but rather as slightly dotty elderly relatives talking about the good old days. Our future lies in Europe, as indeed does much of our past.

    On the outward looking Maritime past: Really? Are we more of a Maritime Nation than the Vikings? The Greeks (ancient or modern), the Venetians? the Dutch, the French? The Spanish? The Portuguese? Or even the Arabs? All of these are famous maritime histories that span a world of exploration. We have much in common with our Continental neighbours including restless natures!

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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    Q. Which Indian Ocean island nation had English as an official language for only a three-year period from 2007-2010?

    Madagascar?
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    foxinsoxuk,

    I know plenty of Americans, Canadians and Australians. The idea that they see us a "slightly dotty elderly relatives" is complete nonsense, and just the sort of doing Britain down that pro-EU people like to push. You only need to look at opinion polls to see how highly they regard us. It is also clear that the British Prime Minister gets far better welcomes in Washington and Ottawa than he does in Paris or Brussels.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Richard_Nabavi,

    David Cameron has campaigned for "reversals", also known as "repatriations", for a good decade now. If he doesn't get any, we should absolutely leave the European Union. But I have not given up faith yet!
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    The term 'Anglosphere' may be recent, but the 'Anglo' description to refer to many of these places is not. 'Anglo-America' goes back a long way.
    When you speak with Americans its striking how keen they are to lay claim to their European heritage. You'll frequently hear, "I'm Greek," or "I'm Italian," or "I'm Irish" from people you suspect would struggle to place them on the map, but I've never yet heard anyone claim to be German despite it being the largest ethnic group (or English for that matter).
    Americans like to flag roots from places like Greek or Italian because they are exotic, and feel like something different to the Anglo mainstream.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    First national GOP primary poll following the entry of Jeb Bush and Donald Trump into the race last week from NBC.

    Bush – 22% (23)
    Walker – 17% (14)
    Rubio – 14% (18)
    Carson – 11% (7)
    Huckabee – 9% (5)
    Paul – 7% (11)
    Perry – 5% (2)
    Cruz – 4% (11)
    Christie- 4% (5)
    Fiorina – 2% (1)
    —————

    Graham – 1% (-)
    Kasich – 1% (-)
    Trump – 1% (-)
    Jindal – 0% (-)
    Pataki – 0% (-)
    Santorum – 0% (-)
    Undecided – 1% (3)
    http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-jeb-bush-leads-gop-pack-n379601
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JEO said:

    foxinsoxuk,

    I know plenty of Americans, Canadians and Australians. The idea that they see us a "slightly dotty elderly relatives" is complete nonsense, and just the sort of doing Britain down that pro-EU people like to push. You only need to look at opinion polls to see how highly they regard us. It is also clear that the British Prime Minister gets far better welcomes in Washington and Ottawa than he does in Paris or Brussels.

    My remark is because those other anglohone countries (interesting to see that so far people have only mentioned the Dominions, and not Anglophone Africa Asia and the West Indies) are less backwardlooking in terms of history and plans for the future.

    And like many others, I have a lot of affection for my elderly slightly dotty relatives and their reminiscences, but it does not mean that I have a lot in common.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,188
    @Richard_Nabavi
    re Eurozone governance, fiscal transfer mechanism and the need for treaty changes to implement it.

    Yes, that will lead to a "two speed Europe" to use the jargon, and Cameron's negotiations will concern the rules by which the two will interact. As they coincide with the Eurozone's need to confront its internal contradictions by dealing with Greece, the timing looks both fortuitous and propitious.

    A "two speed Europe" would be in the interests of both the "ins" and the "outs". The ins could have all the harmonisation of laws, taxes etc that they want, and not impose them on the outs.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    edited June 2015
    Carlotta When predicting elections it is probably best to look at who is most popular on twitter and put your money on their opponent, had Twitter been right Yes would have won indyref by a landslide and there would have been a Labour-SNP coalition in May with a comfortable majority, good news for Burnham then!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    HYUFD said:

    First national GOP primary poll following the entry of Jeb Bush and Donald Trump into the race last week from NBC.

    Surprising bounce for Perry (who has filed his FEC papers now) and good to see Trump getting nowhere. It's looking like Fiorina will be included in the debates and I expect to see a big drop in her odds after this.
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    Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174

    Meanwhile, in the Social Media echo chamber:

    An analysis by Talkwalker, a social media analytics company, has found that Jeremy Corbyn is the most popular of all the candidates on social media. A survey of more than 500,000 posts on places like Twitter and Facebook over the last month found that he was the only candidate with positive comments outweighing negative comments. Burnham achieved the most negative comments. Here are the figures:
    Jeremy Corbyn 30% Positive, 23% Negative

    Liz Kendall 23% Positive, 33% Negative

    Yvette Cooper 21% Positive, 33% Negative

    Andy Burnham: 14% Positive, 61 % Negative,

    Mary Creagh 19% Positive, 24% Negative


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jun/22/cameron-sets-out-his-one-nation-mission-in-a-speech-politics-live#block-55881633e4b0b5dab300be0f

    This bit is interesting too:

    "But remember, if Twitter was representative, Scotland would have voted for independence by a wide margin. And this is from the email that Talkwalker sent me late in the afternoon on election day.

    Almost four times as many people claim to have voted Labour (2500) than Conservative, (777) on Twitter, according to analysis by Talkwalker, one of Europe’s biggest providers of social analytics, monitoring global on line conversations across all networks and media."

    So how do you square that Twitter is more Labour-leaning in general but at the same more negative to Labour's frontrunner?

    Part of the reason may be that tweeters are clearly to the left of the typical Labour demographic in their support for Corbyn. They've unleashed their guns on Andy Burnham because he is/was perceived to be the frontrunner. If that perception changes, they may train their guns on the person next in line - currently Yvette Cooper.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,540

    HYUFD said:

    First national GOP primary poll following the entry of Jeb Bush and Donald Trump into the race last week from NBC.

    Surprising bounce for Perry (who has filed his FEC papers now) and good to see Trump getting nowhere. It's looking like Fiorina will be included in the debates and I expect to see a big drop in her odds after this.
    Perry is incredible. What does it take for him to conclude this is just not going to happen?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Yvette!!!!

    For next LotO

    Yours

    Scrapheap since 2011
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. W, sounds sensible, but I have no faith whatsoever in the EU holding up their end of the bargain. We'll see the political equivalent of mission creep very quickly.
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I am not normally a violent person but watching Tristram Hunt on BBC Parliament is doing terrible things to my blood pressure. I just want to punch his lights out! He is just a shouty, political point scoring waste of space.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    From a Spectator article on Burnham

    'It would be easy to paint Burnham’s change of direction — his striking of left-wing poses, his sometimes mawkish sentimentality about the NHS, and his cosiness with the unions — as purely the result of ambition. Not so. Its roots lie in the friendships, rivalries and jealousies of the tightly knit group of Blairites to which he clung at the outset of his Westminster CAREER.

    ‘All politics is personal for Andy,’ says a friend of his, recalling the rupture which occurred when Burnham, who had been expected to back David Miliband, decided to run for the leadership in 2010. Friends and allies urged him not to. Not only was it David’s turn, they warned; he would embarrass himself by standing. The advice, no doubt well-intentioned and ultimately prescient, enraged him, compounding long-festering insecurities and suspicions. Just as Burnham continued to feel an imposter at Cambridge, so too, argues a friend, he always seemed to feel that he remained outside New Labour’s charmed inner circle. Others who had trod the same path from working-class backgrounds, such as Alan Milburn, David Blunkett, John Reid, Hazel Blears and Alan Johnson, did not seem to SHARE the sentiment.'

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9559092/the-humiliation-that-turned-andy-burnham-from-blairite-to-union-man/
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    JEO said:

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    The term 'Anglosphere' may be recent, but the 'Anglo' description to refer to many of these places is not. 'Anglo-America' goes back a long way.
    When you speak with Americans its striking how keen they are to lay claim to their European heritage. You'll frequently hear, "I'm Greek," or "I'm Italian," or "I'm Irish" from people you suspect would struggle to place them on the map, but I've never yet heard anyone claim to be German despite it being the largest ethnic group (or English for that matter).
    It depends where you go. In Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin etc it is fairly easy to find German-Americans. The Deep South is more British in origin. A lot there claim Scottish, Scots-Irish or simply WASP ancestry, though often not particularly anglophile as a result.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Lady Bucket, may be an idea to turn off the TV. Not seen much of Hunt, but he does seem singularly unimpressive.
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    The obvious low-hanging fruit for cutting pensioner benefits is the free TV licence. The Treasury should stop writing a cheque to the BBC and ask them to cover the cost. The louder their objections, the greater the case for more fundamental reform.

    On top of which it could further freeze or cut its licence fee and /or demand a rake off of commercial profits (if it does not tax them already). Freezing the licence fee is a bonus for 'hard working families'.
    The age for a free licence is 75, so its hardly a massive broad brush give away. The pension age is going up so the age of the free licence could go up accordingly. Sadly once you reach 75 the odds become stacked against you that you will benefit for a long period, but over time it could be edged up to 77.

    But re the BBC - it is a bloated organisation and the best way to puncture it is to cut the fee.
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    I am not normally a violent person but watching Tristram Hunt on BBC Parliament is doing terrible things to my blood pressure. I just want to punch his lights out! He is just a shouty, political point scoring waste of space.

    This is a very important point and you remind me why I try not to watch BBC parliament.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I am not normally a violent person but watching Tristram Hunt on BBC Parliament is doing terrible things to my blood pressure. I just want to punch his lights out! He is just a shouty, political point scoring waste of space.

    This is a very important point and you remind me why I try not to watch BBC parliament.
    Democracy and government are rather like sausagemaking, best not observed too closely!
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    I find that Australia is now very orientated to the Pacific, and with the large number of Mediterranean post war migrants much less British than it was. Similarly both the USA and Canada are far less British than they were a few decades ago. New Zealand more so-apart from the 30% of the population that are ethnically Polynesian. Europe is more Anglophone than it was, particularly in Northern Europ and the Mediterranean it is quite easy to get by in English, and English cultural mores are being adopted by Scandanavian Metal heads to Spanish and Greek ravers.

    I have lived in the USA, Australia and NZ, and while feeling some particular empathy with the antipodes (I have quite a lot of family there), I find that I have more in common in terms of history and culture with the peoples of Continental Europe.

    The Empire is gone. The Dominions and USA do not see us as the future, but rather as slightly dotty elderly relatives talking about the good old days. Our future lies in Europe, as indeed does much of our past.

    On the outward looking Maritime past: Really? Are we more of a Maritime Nation than the Vikings? The Greeks (ancient or modern), the Venetians? the Dutch, the French? The Spanish? The Portuguese? Or even the Arabs? All of these are famous maritime histories that span a world of exploration. We have much in common with our Continental neighbours including restless natures!

    I agree. America especially looks to have had significant immigration from Hispanic countries in recent years. I remember hearing in 2012 that they would be the biggest ethnic group in America. I wonder if that could lead to the USA having more affinity with Spanish-speaking countries in the long-term - I wouldn't be surprised to see the US have Hispanic president in future decades.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    I find that Australia is now very orientated to the Pacific, and with the large number of Mediterranean post war migrants much less British than it was. Similarly both the USA and Canada are far less British than they were a few decades ago. New Zealand more so-apart from the 30% of the population that are ethnically Polynesian. Europe is more Anglophone than it was, particularly in Northern Europ and the Mediterranean it is quite easy to get by in English, and English cultural mores are being adopted by Scandanavian Metal heads to Spanish and Greek ravers.

    I have lived in the USA, Australia and NZ, and while feeling some particular empathy with the antipodes (I have quite a lot of family there), I find that I have more in common in terms of history and culture with the peoples of Continental Europe.

    The Empire is gone. The Dominions and USA do not see us as the future, but rather as slightly dotty elderly relatives talking about the good old days. Our future lies in Europe, as indeed does much of our past.

    On the outward looking Maritime past: Really? Are we more of a Maritime Nation than the Vikings? The Greeks (ancient or modern), the Venetians? the Dutch, the French? The Spanish? The Portuguese? Or even the Arabs? All of these are famous maritime histories that span a world of exploration. We have much in common with our Continental neighbours including restless natures!

    In your opinion is there a European demos?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. Antifrank, surprised they didn't go for the charmless man.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    WG Yes, Perry had a little bounce, although a new Texas poll has him trailing Cruz, Bush the narrow frontrunner but still all to play for
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    edited June 2015
    Fox Depends, as even your article suggests New Zealand is probably closer to the UK than any nation on earth, Australia is becoming more like the US and looking more to Asia but still most Brits have Aussie relatives and vice versa, I certainly do. The US is a melting pot and as it becomes more Hispanic will look more towards Latin America inevitably, Canada is divided between Western states which look to the US, Ontario which is more British in style and Quebec which is Francophile. Of course we still share a monarch with 3/4. However I would agree we also have much in common with Europe, particularly northern Europe and German and Nordic culture is not that dissimilar from our own

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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    JEO said:

    Mr Juncker wants a Eurozone Treasury:

    https://euobserver.com/economic/129218

    Of course he does.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The FT has a heart-rending piece on the real pain that middle class Greeks are making:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0d42fce2-18e5-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3dnH43w1K

    "The family still owes a year’s worth of school fees at the private international school their daughter attended, which George admits is not a priority. He is no longer embarrassed by his inability to pay, he says, because so many other parents are in the same situation."

    "Back in her parents’ apartment, Margarita, who lost her marketing job last year, ticks off a list of small luxuries that she used to enjoy but are now inaccessible. Among them are foreign holidays, yoga classes, and a new Prada handbag every year."
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,222

    JEO said:

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    The term 'Anglosphere' may be recent, but the 'Anglo' description to refer to many of these places is not. 'Anglo-America' goes back a long way.
    When you speak with Americans its striking how keen they are to lay claim to their European heritage. You'll frequently hear, "I'm Greek," or "I'm Italian," or "I'm Irish" from people you suspect would struggle to place them on the map, but I've never yet heard anyone claim to be German despite it being the largest ethnic group (or English for that matter).
    Surprised about German
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    It's ahistorical to claim that there is a special cultural affinity between the US and the UK which overrides our shared history as one of the great nations of Europe. It's undignified to try to co-opt the modern day US as an extension of our own history alone.
    The US is not the entirety of the Anglosphere: Australia, Canada, New Zealand - and even Ireland are as much part of it. Of course we share more cultural affinity with them due to the English language, common law, centuries of representative government. The history of the "great nations of Europe" was largely, pre-NATO, being rivals and going to war with one another. That's not co-opting the US as an extension of our own history alone, it's just pointing out how much we have in common.
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e3/Anglospeak.svg/1024px-Anglospeak.svg.png

    Dark Blue - English as a majority language
    Light blue - English as an official language where it is non-majority
    Blimey! That's a map of 1984's Oceania.

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,222
    JEO said:

    foxinsoxuk,

    I know plenty of Americans, Canadians and Australians. The idea that they see us a "slightly dotty elderly relatives" is complete nonsense, and just the sort of doing Britain down that pro-EU people like to push. You only need to look at opinion polls to see how highly they regard us. It is also clear that the British Prime Minister gets far better welcomes in Washington and Ottawa than he does in Paris or Brussels.

    People do like their pets though
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291

    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
    Violet Attlee was a card! Scared the willies out of Special Branch who struggled to keep up with her when she was driving her husband around during election campaigns....
    My History teacher, mentioned about Mrs Attlee's driving was fast and furious.

    http://openplaques.org/plaques/589

    Need to cross check when Attlee lived in Woodford Green, but WSC was MP from 1924 when it was part of The Epping constituency.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    foxinsoxuk,

    I know plenty of Americans, Canadians and Australians. The idea that they see us a "slightly dotty elderly relatives" is complete nonsense, and just the sort of doing Britain down that pro-EU people like to push. You only need to look at opinion polls to see how highly they regard us. It is also clear that the British Prime Minister gets far better welcomes in Washington and Ottawa than he does in Paris or Brussels.

    My remark is because those other anglohone countries (interesting to see that so far people have only mentioned the Dominions, and not Anglophone Africa Asia and the West Indies) are less backwardlooking in terms of history and plans for the future.

    And like many others, I have a lot of affection for my elderly slightly dotty relatives and their reminiscences, but it does not mean that I have a lot in common.
    Again, this is both untrue and doing Britain down. I find Americans love their history, particularly around the defining moments in the forming of their nation: the Revolution, the Civil War, World War 2. Something nostalgic like Forest Gump goes down very well over there. Of course, they're forward looking too, but so are the Brits. When I listen to even the Hannans and Carswells of the world, they focus on a very optimistic, positive vision of Britain signing trade deals with the BRIC economies.
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    justin124 said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Cameron's welfare comments today together with plans to reduce the right to strike to little more than a theoretical right leave little doubt now that the Tory party's Arbeit Macht Frei wing is calling the shots.

    ah - the nasty party supporters showing their true colours. Newsflash - demonising your opponents before a GE is pretty thick - doing it again after you just lost quite heavily is even thicker.
    I yearn for a credible, thoughtful opposition. I could never vote Labour because a good chunk of their supporters think I'm scum, just because I've voted Tory in the past.
    "never kiss a tory" like some kind of untouchable from the Indian caste system.
    The most respected Labour PM not only kissed a Tory, he married one!
    Im sure it is done in fun, but it just feels ugly and a little bit sinister. It says "you are disgusting". Many people vote the way they vote out of good decent values. Whether that is Labour, Con, Greens, libdems or UKIP. People can sincerely disagree with you, that doesnt mean they have no value as a human being.

    It turns my stomach a bit. Maybe, as im never really going to change my mind it doesnt matter, but Im sure others who do change their vote will be particularly unimpressed.
    I know of someone who withdrew his offer to donate blood when the NHS refused to abide by his stipulation that it was not to be given to a Tory voter. However, he was apparently perfectly content to agree to it being given to a cat.
    If I didn't know better I'd think that you were citing that approvingly. Surely that can't be right? Most normal people would think that that was really - what's the word? Gottit! Pathetic.

    Taking a bit of a punt here but do you, Justin, have any views on the moral status of LibDem councillor temptresses who might have a bit of a thing in the home-wrecker line? I'm sure I recognise you from a previous blog life.

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Assuming we vote to leave the EU, how long do PBers think it will take from the day we vote, to the day we leave? 18 months?

    I'm not sure if it would ever actually happen, unless the government actually wished it. A government that didn't actually want to leave could place endless obstacles in the way.
    If Cameron and the government, or most of it, campaigned for IN and lost would it just be Cameron who resigned? Could the Tory party stay united under those circumstances?
    If there was another election and a party whose manifesto said they would remain in the EU won would they have to implement the referendum result?
    It's a can of worms.
    It really does depend on the result. If it's 70/30 for In then the Tory party will have to lump it. If it's 53-47 and the 'deal' Cameron negotiated subsequently unravels, it will become a running sore.
    If its 70/30 In then the Tory Party will mostly have been for In. The BOO Tories will have to lump it, not the Tory Party.

    Same is true in reverse if its even 51/49 Out. The In Tories will need to lump it (and the Tory Party voters will mostly have been Out).
    It's the parliamentary party that's key here. As much as some may not like it, and prefer the alternative, BOO Tories are still Tories, and part of that Tory party. So if Out loses v.badly then the party as a whole will stop debating the issue - prob for quite a while. The BOO'ers will have to lick their wounds and regroup.

    If the vote is as narrow as 51/49 for Out, I expect carnage. That could legal challenges, multiple resignations and possibly include a second referendum to ask the voters if they really meant it.
    Well you already have one Tory MP - if he is true to his word - saying he will resign his seat if IN win. I am not convinced there are many others who will be as principled as that but I do think that the idea everything will be happy and all forgiven after the referendum is a pipe dream.
    Not sure that it is "principled": he was elected as an MP on the basis that it was a member of the EU. He's just said "it won't be any fun, so I don't want to play" - seems to me to be entirely self-serving rather than sticking up for the interests of his constituents
    Nope. He was elected on the basis that he would serve his constituents and the country. If he feels - as I do - that an IN vote means that effective control over our country has passed to the EU on a permanent basis then I think he is absolutely right that there is no longer point him serving as an MP.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048

    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    It's ahistorical to claim that there is a special cultural affinity between the US and the UK which overrides our shared history as one of the great nations of Europe. It's undignified to try to co-opt the modern day US as an extension of our own history alone.
    No it is not. We have far more in common with the US than we do with Europe. It takes a special kind of lack of knowledge to try and claim otherwise.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    antifrank said:

    The FT has a heart-rending piece on the real pain that middle class Greeks are making:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0d42fce2-18e5-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3dnH43w1K

    "The family still owes a year’s worth of school fees at the private international school their daughter attended, which George admits is not a priority. He is no longer embarrassed by his inability to pay, he says, because so many other parents are in the same situation."

    "Back in her parents’ apartment, Margarita, who lost her marketing job last year, ticks off a list of small luxuries that she used to enjoy but are now inaccessible. Among them are foreign holidays, yoga classes, and a new Prada handbag every year."

    “I still owe money on the car and motorboat I can’t afford to use.

    Crazy lol - motorboat on finance...
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    The term 'Anglosphere' may be recent, but the 'Anglo' description to refer to many of these places is not. 'Anglo-America' goes back a long way.
    When you speak with Americans its striking how keen they are to lay claim to their European heritage. You'll frequently hear, "I'm Greek," or "I'm Italian," or "I'm Irish" from people you suspect would struggle to place them on the map, but I've never yet heard anyone claim to be German despite it being the largest ethnic group (or English for that matter).
    Americans like to flag roots from places like Greek or Italian because they are exotic, and feel like something different to the Anglo mainstream.
    My uncle migrated to the USA in early eighties, he's cumbrian born and bred, but anyone would think he was Irish. It's cool to be irish there.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    The Indus Valley civilisation was only identified and named at the start of the 20th century. That doesn't change the fact that it existed as one of the great river valley civilisations for almost 3000 years.

    The Anglosphere may have been named in 1995 but that doesn't change the fact that it existed for much longer and exists now.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    The Indus Valley civilisation was only identified and named at the start of the 20th century. That doesn't change the fact that it existed as one of the great river valley civilisations for almost 3000 years.

    The Anglosphere may have been named in 1995 but that doesn't change the fact that it existed for much longer and exists now.
    For that matter, the Byzantine empire was only given that name over a hundred years after it expired.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    The FT has a heart-rending piece on the real pain that middle class Greeks are making:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0d42fce2-18e5-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3dnH43w1K

    "The family still owes a year’s worth of school fees at the private international school their daughter attended, which George admits is not a priority. He is no longer embarrassed by his inability to pay, he says, because so many other parents are in the same situation."

    "Back in her parents’ apartment, Margarita, who lost her marketing job last year, ticks off a list of small luxuries that she used to enjoy but are now inaccessible. Among them are foreign holidays, yoga classes, and a new Prada handbag every year."

    “I still owe money on the car and motorboat I can’t afford to use.

    Crazy lol - motorboat on finance...
    Maybe we should launch a Crowdfunding appeal for them? That said, Varoufakis may well already have this down in his plan B.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    It's ahistorical to claim that there is a special cultural affinity between the US and the UK which overrides our shared history as one of the great nations of Europe. It's undignified to try to co-opt the modern day US as an extension of our own history alone.
    No it is not. We have far more in common with the US than we do with Europe. It takes a special kind of lack of knowledge to try and claim otherwise.
    I think that will vary by background (crudely, 'class').

    Very broadly;

    Polly Toynbee et al holiday in Chiantishire and feel very European
    Sid Snot & family watch American soaps and holiday in Orlando

    I don't think you can generalise about the whole British experience - different people will feel different things.

    It takes a special kind of arrogance to try to claim otherwise.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293

    JEO said:

    antifrank said:

    In 1975 Britain voted by 2:1 to stay in the EEC. Nevertheless, as soon as 1983 Labour were campaigning on a policy of leaving it. I expect Conservative rightwing opponents of the EU to take defeat about as philosophically as Labour leftwing opponents of the EEC took defeat then.

    One of the oddest aspects of right-wing opposition to the EU is the belief that Britain is an inherently ultra right-wing country which is only held back by alien socialist ideas from Brussels. They act as if our post-war history didn't happen, in much the same way as the extreme left act as if Thatcher were an aberration and not a political force whom the British people rewarded with three majorities.
    So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
    I wouldn't caricature your views that way and you raise a good point about VAT. My comment was more aimed at the likes of Daniel Hannan and his ahistorical guff about the 'anglosphere'.
    What is ahistorical about the Anglosphere? There have been plenty of left-wing movements in other English-speaking countries.
    It's ahistorical to claim that there is a special cultural affinity between the US and the UK which overrides our shared history as one of the great nations of Europe. It's undignified to try to co-opt the modern day US as an extension of our own history alone.
    No it is not. We have far more in common with the US than we do with Europe. It takes a special kind of lack of knowledge to try and claim otherwise.
    There is of course the small matter of us being a European country. 'Europe' is defined as much by the UK as by France or Germany.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048

    MP_SE said:


    The UK has far more in common with the Anglosphere. I really do not understand how someone could claim the UK has far less in common with Australia than it does Spain/Italy/Portugal. Many criticised Charles de Gaulle's comments, however, he has subsequently been proved correct.

    I certainly agree if we're talking about cultural ties with Australia and New Zealand, however Australia has its own national destiny as a result of its geopolitical situation.

    The 'Anglosphere' as a term is younger than the Maastricht Treaty which gave us the European Union which should tell you how much grounding in history it has.
    I find that Australia is now very orientated to the Pacific, and with the large number of Mediterranean post war migrants much less British than it was. Similarly both the USA and Canada are far less British than they were a few decades ago. New Zealand more so-apart from the 30% of the population that are ethnically Polynesian. Europe is more Anglophone than it was, particularly in Northern Europ and the Mediterranean it is quite easy to get by in English, and English cultural mores are being adopted by Scandanavian Metal heads to Spanish and Greek ravers.

    I have lived in the USA, Australia and NZ, and while feeling some particular empathy with the antipodes (I have quite a lot of family there), I find that I have more in common in terms of history and culture with the peoples of Continental Europe.

    The Empire is gone. The Dominions and USA do not see us as the future, but rather as slightly dotty elderly relatives talking about the good old days. Our future lies in Europe, as indeed does much of our past.

    On the outward looking Maritime past: Really? Are we more of a Maritime Nation than the Vikings? The Greeks (ancient or modern), the Venetians? the Dutch, the French? The Spanish? The Portuguese? Or even the Arabs? All of these are famous maritime histories that span a world of exploration. We have much in common with our Continental neighbours including restless natures!

    Of course you believe that. But you are wrong. Our legal systems and cultural affinities are all with the Anglosphere rather than with Europe.

    I would also have to point out that unless you speak the language of those European countries you have lived in I suspect they will have a rather different view about your cultural closeness than you do.

    You have a political view and just as with the rest of us that colours your view of the world. But as always, there are basic facts that undermine your claims.

    Were you one of those denying that there is a difference in the interpretation of treaties between European and English law?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    I think your average punter might find this a tad confusing:

    https://twitter.com/matthew_elliott/status/612927539942719488
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    Disraeli said:

    Q. Which Indian Ocean island nation had English as an official language for only a three-year period from 2007-2010?

    Madagascar?
    Correct!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TGOHF said:

    Serious non PC question : can Yvette "Cooper" resist becoming Mrs Balls ? Is keeping your maiden name compatible with relating to "hard working families" - any stats on % of married women who do or don't take their husbands surnames ?.

    I think it is far more common than you would imagine, certainly in business. No idea of the actual stats but I know plenty of women who use their maiden name for work purposes and their married name for social/private purposes.
    Mum always uses her maiden name when entering gardening and photography competitions. She feels strongly about women being merely a "Mrs" of a Man.
    There was one occasion when my mother was greeted by 7 different names before her own was used in the evening when she had dinner with friends. She's still pretty irritated by it

    1. Darling
    2. Mrs [my father's first name]
    3. Mrs [her surname]
    4. Ms [her surname]
    5. Your Worship
    6. Ma'am
    7. Mum
    8. [her name]
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,081
    Evening

    I think the distance from Britain to the United States helps to paper over the cultural differences in a manner that is not possible for, say, France. It makes it easier to think of an abstract, conceptual America and to not think of the really significant cultural diversity of America - is Britain like New Orleans? Los Angeles? Charleston? Whereas most British people have met Poles or have been to Spain or France.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    EPG said:

    Evening

    I think the distance from Britain to the United States helps to paper over the cultural differences in a manner that is not possible for, say, France. It makes it easier to think of an abstract, conceptual America and to not think of the really significant cultural diversity of America - is Britain like New Orleans? Los Angeles? Charleston? Whereas most British people have met Poles or have been to Spain or France.

    True or false:

    "Distance from Honolulu, Hawaii to Washington DC is less than that from London to Washington DC."
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