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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the date of the EU referendum
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the date of the EU referendum
Over the weekend, stories emerged, which were downplayed by Number 10, that the EU referendum was set for October 2016. Then the Telegraph’s Chief Political Correspondent tweeted this afternoon.
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Not even slightly temped by the referendum odds, but I'd say it's fairly likely to slip to 2017 as they seek a "final, final, set of concessions", either to buttress the IN vote or to stop a party schism.
When does the date have to be set? Conditions at the end of this year will be instructive - but much too late.
It were done quickly"
Cameron will not want this dominating his entire term as PM with a majority. And the Tories need to find a way to put Humpty back together again before 2020.
July and August may not be good because of of school holidays so maybe September would be the best chance of good weather and so a high turnout of the undecideds/unconcerneds.
The Prime Minister set out his vision for an 'Opportunity Society', saying he wanted to help fulfil voters' aspirations 'whoever you are' - even those who voted against him.
He singled out tax credits for criticism, with workers taxed and then handed back benefits to top up low pay packets.
In a major speech on reforming the benefits system, Mr Cameron called for a move from a 'low wage, high tax, high welfare society to a higher wage, lower tax, lower welfare society'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3133823/David-Cameron-vows-stop-benefits-merry-round-consigned-thousands-scrapheap.html
Presumably, Cameron is also keeping an eye on the Greek situation. Economic volatility from a Grexit might hit the "In" side pretty hard.
https://youtu.be/e-r_C7bJP60
is news
and absolutely wonderful.
11-10 First half of 2016 looks too short.
Hopefully if we leave, we'll be able to carry on a free trade relaionship and neither side will embark on any protectionist tarriff schemes but I have my doubts.
I do worry about this point the most. On the plus side we'll be out of the CAP and CFP
My only concern is that seeking to address these deep rooted problems and decades of failure by governments of all stripes whilst cutting the benefit bill by £12bn is an incredible ask. The glacial pace of the Universal Credit reforms, which is only a small part of the solution, demonstrates the difficulty of this. Generating the good will and consensus needed for this kind of change in an atmosphere of such cuts will be impossible.
They will just keep holding referendums until they get the answer they want.
Would a vote for Out (after Cameron had campaigned for IN) trigger Cameron's resignation?
If he loses (having backed IN) then he will go as a result.
If he wins then I think he will want to get out before his deals/promises start to unwind.
Employee Benefits @EmployeeBenefit · 2h2 hours ago
.@NorwichCityFC to pay living wage http://bit.ly/1GhPlmS #pay #reward #livingwage @LivingWageUK
OTBC.
On that topic Farage has been a bit quiet recently, what's he up to? Writing a biographic musical of his life story? Building a bunker in Kent in case we vote to stay in?
Also although Westminster Scotland-only opinion polls weren't done too often pre-referendum those that were began to give the SNP a lead over Labour in 2012. Again years before 2014.
That's why I've put a small saver bet on Owen Paterson as next Tory leader, at long odds. He looks to me the most credible and best-positioned potential leader in that scenario.
It would have to be someone not associated with the current government, and not identified with the Cameron project, yet at the same time someone serious (i.e. not Fox or DD).
The living wage needs to be made something that employers are expected to try to pay wherever possible. How to incentivise that without making it compulsory is a real challenge.
Exclusive: Greek econ minister Stathakis tells me government heads communique to say outline of Greek deal agreed, subject to technical work
If there was another election and a party whose manifesto said they would remain in the EU won would they have to implement the referendum result?
It's a can of worms.
@PickardJE: IDS tells Commons tax credits usually rose steeply just before general elections under Labour. "His party used benefits as way to buy votes"
*except when it's about AV
Im-per-son-ate! Angry dwarf is jailed after sticking a sucker dart on his head and pretending to be a Dalek in row which led to him being Tasered twice by police
Ian Salter-Bromley filled mouth with dominoes and shouted 'Exterminate!'
He chanted 'I'm a Dalek! I'm going to kill you!' in manner of Dr Who creature
Officers Tasered 55-year-old after they 'feared for their welfare', court told
Incident part of campaign of abuse in which he spread excrement in Hull council offices
http://dailym.ai/1BwSRNu
Opinion polls weren't regularly conducted but those that were showed an SNP lead pre-Indyref. In 2012 the SNP polled 39% and prior to the Indyref they were polling 39-40% regularly. Once opinion polls became regular and the idea of an SNP victory became plausible, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The living wage for a single mother supporting three children in private rented accommodation will be by necessity far higher than that for a pensioner doing a couple of afternoons a week part-time work in the supermarket.
I think the fact it was on the day of Lady Thatcher's funeral, was merely coincidental.
Same is true in reverse if its even 51/49 Out. The In Tories will need to lump it (and the Tory Party voters will mostly have been Out).
Some sort of poll of LABOUR MEMBERS carried out, but in mid-May (hence could have been overtaken by events): http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/who-will-win-labour-leadership-election-its-little-early-tell
On a company I am a director of I recently argued that we should set the living wage as a target and aspiration but not a commitment, specifically not a contractual commitment with our staff. I was frankly nervous about having our wage bill so out of our control when the financial situation is somewhat uncertain. The Board agreed. I think most employers would want to retain that flexibility but that does not mean that the NMW cannot be brought a lot closer to the living wage.
If the vote is as narrow as 51/49 for Out, I expect carnage. That could legal challenges, multiple resignations and possibly include a second referendum to ask the voters if they really meant it.
Looking at these numbers, you go from an SNP lead over Labour of low to mid single figures, pre-referendum, to 20% -30% post-referendum.
The SNP would, in all likelihood, have put on votes strongly, compared to 2010, but the referendum gave them a shot in the arm.
I think companies should produce the highest quality of goods possible, at the lowest cost possible, paying the highest wages possible. But the living wage depends massively on your lifestyle, where you live and your commitments.
I'm not sure the one size fits all target is helpful.
I also think that a major hike in NMW for 21+ year olds would be best at this time. Maybe combine with raising the starting point of personal NI, or even amalgamating it.....
So it won't feature in the 2020GE on those sorts of numbers.
I grant you that if the Tories lose in 2020, and the EU continues to change in a way that's perceived as detrimental to Britain, then the issue could be reopened for 2025GE. But something quite significant would have to (or not have to) occur first for that to happen and form part of a manifesto platform.
It will be different if the vote is 58-42 to stay in (roughly what I currently expect) as I suspect the BOO'ers would watch the government like a hawk on all matters EU from D-Day+1.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P3uZGht_uI
Well, I would suggest that the first step is to cut the entitlements of those earning more than the national average wage of £26,000 or so. So we have a sharper taper to a lower maximum wage for entitlement. Lots of angst from relatively well paid working mums in that but these are not the most vulnerable.
At the lower end you should be looking to ensure that any reductions should be offset, ideally more than offset, by an increase in the minimum wage. So if the NMW is increased by £1 an hour then the maximum cuts would be £16 a week.
If all this means 20p on a cappuccino it will be money well spent.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-33223380
I had hope it would be Downfall of Scottish Labour.
Dougie, Dougie has lost his seat to a wee gurl.
A good example is VAT on household heating bills. Major decided to put VAT on household heating bills. I, from the right, and many others from the left thought this was wrong. Household heating is a basic necessity like food and should not be taxed as a discretionary purchase.
But when the Blair Government came to do something about it after 1997 they could not. They could reduce it from 8% to 5% but they could not get rid of it because VAT is, in part at least, an EU competence and once the zero rating has been revoked it cannot be reinstated.
Now personally I think that is wrong. It should not be for the EU to decide whether we tax heating fuel or not, it should be for the Government of the day to make that decision and suffer the consequences if the public disagree.
So this is not about left vs right per se. It is about decision making resting with the elected Government at Westminster (or Hollyrood) not with the EU.
But any changes would have to apply both to Britons and migrant workers from Europe to comply with EU non-discrimination rules.
Child tax credit can add more than £100 a week to workers' take home pay. Its level depends on how much a person earns and how many children they have.
Treasury figures uncovered by the Mail show that in December 2012 a total of 4,011 EU workers were receiving the tax credit for 6,838 children living outside the UK.
By March of this year that figure increased to 7,026 awards for a total of 11,762 children.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3133816/12-000-living-outside-UK-child-tax-credit.html
I do agree with Hannan that we have far more in common with the Anglosphere culturally, legally and economically than we do with our European neighbours.
It showed in a small way the other day when a number of commentators on here failed to realise the different emphasis put on the preamble to treaties in European law compared to UK law.