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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : June 18th 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : June 18th 2015
North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences)
Result: Emboldened denotes elected
Labour: Donald Barr 143, Gareth Walls 132
Conservatives: Sally Derham-Wilkes 793 , Nick Geary 775
United Kingdom Independence Party: Robin Grey 315, Janet Hatton 288
Two Conservative HOLDS
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Comments
(I'm not quite sure how you find the time to collate all of the information, but it is appreciated).
Oh, and first.
Ok, I saw that last night, but I'm still surprised. I find if there are no comments on a thread, I'm usually not able to post ('Discussion ID required' it tells me) so I must refresh, and lost that mark of honour.
-phile isn't technically accurate for those who'd to remain in the EU either. I'm in favour of staying in the EU, but that doesn't mean I love it. I think it has flaws but we are on balance better off in than out ... that is not love any more than wanting out on balance is fear.
So don't be PC about one word while using its antonym.
Although I'm not sure it's a mark of honour ...
-phile isn't technically accurate for those who'd to remain in the EU either. I'm in favour of staying in the EU, but that doesn't mean I love it. I think it has flaws but we are on balance better off in than out ... that is not love any more than wanting out on balance is fear.
So don't be PC about one word while using its antonym.
A sceptic is also one who has doubts. Someone who is fixated on leaving the EU does not have doubts.
Eurosceptic is not a good term.Europhobe and Europhile are opposite ends of the spectrum.
Nothing I've read here over the past two years would induce me to rejoin the Conservative Party. I have friends there, still, who I've canvassed for, still. I love what Conservatives have done in Wandsworth and Tower Hamlets.
But nationally? Not so much.
-phile isn't technically accurate for those who'd to remain in the EU either. I'm in favour of staying in the EU, but that doesn't mean I love it. I think it has flaws but we are on balance better off in than out ... that is not love any more than wanting out on balance is fear.
So don't be PC about one word while using its antonym.
And can we all be honest and say that Europhile is an attempt to make pro-Europeans sound like paedophiles? And Europhobe an attempt to allude to being a homophobe.
-phile isn't technically accurate for those who'd to remain in the EU either. I'm in favour of staying in the EU, but that doesn't mean I love it. I think it has flaws but we are on balance better off in than out ... that is not love any more than wanting out on balance is fear.
So don't be PC about one word while using its antonym.
And can we all be honest and say that Europhile is an attempt to make pro-Europeans sound like paedophiles? And Europhobe an attempt to allude to being a homophobe.
I can honestly say that the idea had never occurred to me about either phrase!
So don't be PC about one word while using its antonym.
And can we all be honest and say that Europhile is an attempt to make pro-Europeans sound like paedophiles? And Europhobe an attempt to allude to being a homophobe.
I can honestly say that the idea had never occurred to me about either phrase!
Me neither.
-phile isn't technically accurate for those who'd to remain in the EU either. I'm in favour of staying in the EU, but that doesn't mean I love it. I think it has flaws but we are on balance better off in than out ... that is not love any more than wanting out on balance is fear.
So don't be PC about one word while using its antonym.
And can we all be honest and say that Europhile is an attempt to make pro-Europeans sound like paedophiles? And Europhobe an attempt to allude to being a homophobe.
That's fairly ridiculous.
Eurosceptic is the correct description for someone who is sceptical of the benefits of EU membership. Europhobe is a description for someone who irrationally fears the EU. I do not fear the EU. I do not even loath it or hate it any more than I loath or hate the Liberal Democrats. I simply feel that it is a pointless edifice which harms the country and its citizens, warps and perverts the democratic process and should be opposed wherever possible.
Again, much like the Liberal Democrats
I can honestly say that the idea had never occurred to me about either phrase!
Me neither.
Nor me.
Incidentally -phile and -phobe are Greek rather than English...
So don't be PC about one word while using its antonym.
And can we all be honest and say that Europhile is an attempt to make pro-Europeans sound like paedophiles? And Europhobe an attempt to allude to being a homophobe.
I can honestly say that the idea had never occurred to me about either phrase!
This reminds me of a scene in Peep Show when Mark describes himself as a paedophobe which confuses Jeremy.
Actually I have always considered Europhile to be a non aggressive or non insulting term. Whilst I may disagree with Europhiles I do not use the term in a derogatory manner. If I wish to do that I usually use the name Eurofanatic.
Economics professor, quietly writing obscure academic texts for years, until thrust onto the public scene by Europe's inane handling of an inevitable crisis
I suspect that you are one of those who changes the way in which they view words based upon the context and so would put climate sceptics as extremists on one side of a debate whilst not wanting to use that term when referring to Eurosceptics because you think it too balanced.
Anyway, if pressed the idea of a small state is perhaps the kernel of my political view. Is there an equivalent thing for the left? (Things like fairness, equality etc go without saying for us all - some general distinctive theme is what I'm after if it exists)
I raise the question as it seems to me that there's little to distinguish the Labour leadership candidates, and I'm pretty sure the base strand is just 'I'm Labour'. Really though, what does 'Labour' mean?
In practice this means that Labour uses the democratic state to counterbalance the power of money, which frequently acts against the interests of people who happen not to possess it. People who are in every way equal to those that do.
I think our referendum matters more to Europe than it does to us. The old 'Europe cut off, fog in channel' thing isn't so far from the truth for the future.
http://buchanan.org/blog/the-anti-politician-16164
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3131574/Shocking-footage-10-year-old-boy-beaten-ground-kicked-head-two-thugs-Bradford.html
-phile isn't technically accurate for those who'd to remain in the EU either. I'm in favour of staying in the EU, but that doesn't mean I love it. I think it has flaws but we are on balance better off in than out ... that is not love any more than wanting out on balance is fear.
So don't be PC about one word while using its antonym.
And can we all be honest and say that Europhile is an attempt to make pro-Europeans sound like paedophiles? And Europhobe an attempt to allude to being a homophobe.
Nope, it’s never crossed my mind to think that - and now that you mention it, it still doesn’t.
WilliamGlen - I really like that 'value' idea - I think that's quite right. However I don't see quite who your protection of interests theme might be foisted against. For example today's mean private landlord was yesterday's plumber.
Thanks for responding, both of you.
I have four grandsons, the eldest is nine, and I am already worried about the world they face as they grow up.
Do you see the Germans allowing fiscal union, where the German taxpayer underwrites Mediterranean countries' budgets? Or the French allowing an EU to exist that could take a "normal government" decision like closing down Strasbourg? Or someone from e.g. Poland belonging to a trans-European party which wasn't led by a Pole?
To describe the EU as totalitarian, or imply that it is, shows a degree of irrationality, a "phobia" in fact.
Nigel,I'm worried about my city where I live,over the past year,me and my family have been thinking of moving but we have stuck it out so far.
From "Greece’s Proposals to End the Crisis: My..." to "...produce policies that work for, and not against, them." is 2,970 words. A summary is as follows:
* Words 1 to 2634 are padding.
* Words 2635 to 2776 ("Part 2: A rationalisation of Greece’s...repayments to the IMF") are a request to replace existing loans with a new loan
* Words 2777 to 2839 ("Part 3: An investment program for...including real estate.") are a request for more money, this time as a gift
* Words 2840 to 2970 are padding.
In short: he wants to swap the existing loan for a different loan and wants a large gift on top.
Any one who takes the time to study the EU will quickly realise it is an attempt to create a federal union of European states, rather than an attempt to create a free trade area.
But no, I don't object to things like UN membership or NATO although I accept they exercise some small degree of supranational control over the country. It is a matter of scale and depth. That is why I would be okay with EFTA membership but not EU.
Fundamentally I believe in government as small as practically possible - much like Robert Smithson or Omnium. Every act of governance whether national or international should be measured against necessity, scope and consequence and only those areas of government which we deem to be absolutely essential should be acceptable.
I can almost see the reasoning in a lot of that, amusingly, although judging from this week's hustings, it calls Corbyn wrong, as if his lunch went missing he'd find some way to link it to the Iraq war.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03347/200615-MATT-web_3347857a.jpg
I cannot imagine why the German people wish to spend so much money making a Greater Germany which clearly is a house of cards, but its entirely clear that they wish to do so.
Nobody would disagree that Greece should not have joined the Eurozone. I strongly suspect they would be better off out of it now (albeit with rational economic policies, rather than SYRIZA ones). However, to take no responsibility for prior agreements - the very conditions under which money was lent to them, or - indeed - the fact that the Greek government conspired with Goldman Sachs to hide true debt levels is astonishing.
The IMF has stated that Greece is the worst country it's dealt with in its 60 years of existence. That is shameful.
My exact use was to counter your use of the reductio ad absurdum. I highlighted this with an example.
"It is like saying that because we need a basic rule of law to live we should accept a totalitarian state."
Of course I should have expected that a Eurofanatic like yourself would twist those words. After all misrepresentation is really the only weapon you have left in your arsenal.
LIAMT has already comprehensively destroyed your claims about the EU being nothing more than a free trade area.
As Germany is now inevitably becoming the hegemon within the EU, and the US is no longer susceptible to the charms of a back-seat driver, both the UK and France need to reevaluate where they go from here.
The Germans cannot suddenly turn round and pretend this is all a surprise and they are somehow the victims. They are just as guilty as the Greeks for this mess.
The Greeks have played the EU like a bunch of mugs, they borrowed money and are pretty much refusing to pay it back, almost as if they are getting back the money Germany owes them in reparation by hook or by crook.
What can the EU do? The Greeks know they won't be kicked out and are using the Russians to scaremonger. If they were kicked out then within two years they would prosper, like Iceland have, and the rest of the Southern Med countries would follow suit. The whole thing would come crashing down like the proverbial house of cards, the Greeks know this and hold all the aces.
I think you are rather over-generous. 'Padding' as you say forms almost all of it. After having read through the text it's simply delusional. 'Money please, make it quick, and by the way absolutely no fault is attributable to Greece. In fact we may wish to make claims against you.'
I have never said that the EU was nothing more than a FTA. More irrational thoughts on your side. If only I could remember what the Greek word for this was...
If you're looking for a word then Denier is the description of your views.
'emergency aid' ? Do you along with the greeks believe in the magic money tree?
Point 2: you may consider that the Greek lies (plural, btw: it wasn't a one-off) were accepted on a nod and a wink, but when the magnitude became, apparent, people were genuinely shocked. From memory, Sarkozy was quite bombastic ~2009 that the financial crisis was merely an Anglosphere mess...then the size of the Greek deception became apparent, and jaws hit the floor. And six years later, here we are.
Point 3: the conceit that the victim bears responsibility for the crime has disfigured humanity since its inception. As unfashionable as it is, the fact is that the people bearing responsibility for the multiple Greek deceptions are...the Greeks. Not the EU, the Eurozone, the Germans, Eurostat, or the little baby Jesus. The Greeks.
There are some left-wing parties out there in this wide world with a deep and total commitment to equality - from each, and to each, according to Marx Gospel - and some have even used what opportunities of power they have been bequeathed (or perhaps, rather, grasped) to practically implement uniformity of wages. This has not been the Labour way. Not just for fear of alienating Middle England, nor in succour to their (substantial, compared to the Tories) voter base of graduate professionals. But because it is ideologically alien to the mainstream British Labour movement, something they have actively kept at bargepole's length. Indeed, even in the formative years of the 1920s, 30s and 40s, the Labour party consistently rebuffed efforts of the communist factions to affiliate to the party - so this is something deep-rooted in the Labour DNA.
And again the idea that those in power in the rest of the Eurozone would not have known what the Greeks were doing seems naive at best.
Of course the Greeks bear much of the responsibility but the rest of the Eurozone - or their politicians and bureaucrats at least - are not the victims. They are the partner in crime. It is the normal people both inside and outside Greece who are the victims.
To say "Labour are about equality" misses that Labour believe in equality only up to a point. The interesting question is quite where that point is, since even the modern Tories believe in equality up to their own point, and the Liberals love equality right up to another point altogether. I think what adds to the compexity is that not all Labourites agree where their own point is: the divisions here are wide and quite fundamental. One of Roy Hattersley's most damning critiques of Blair's Britain was its belief in meritocracy: but in a meritocratic world, the high-flying lawyer becomes increasing unequal from the disadvantaged. On the other hand, Peter Kellner (who I believe is a Labour man; he is at least married to Cathy Ashton, Baroness and ex-EU Foreign Honcho) retorted that meritocracy was something we needed more of, but that greater steps were needed to "reconcile meritocracy and 'equal worth'." That was a debate from 2001. If only the Labour debate of 2015 was as meaty!
While I'm sure equality can be described as a central value of the Labour party - and Labour may regard it as a higher priority than the other parties - the fact that other parties hold it too disqualifies it, I think, from being Labour's "Definitional Big Idea". Certainly not in the sense that Burkean philosophy with a sprig of Cobdenite liberalism is the motive force of the modern Tories. Perhaps if you want to talk on a "values" basis, a good starting point is to admit that most mainstream political parties in Britain share common Western liberal values plus a belief in unionism. We can then talk more sensibly about what combination is prevalent in each party: the Lib Dems may put greater weight on liberty and less on equality relative to Labour, for instance, but still more emphasis on equality than the Tories do. While a worthwhile exercise, such a values-menu characterisation doesn't penetrate the central idea-seed of each party.
As for the soul of the Labour party, and perhaps that matters more than any particular idea, consider this: in 2050, may they look back a half-century to Blair for at least partial inspiration, or still fixate their gaze a further fifty years before? My money lies on the latter, and if I wonder if that is an indictment of Blair or of Labour or of both.
I'm sure we'd act similarly if we found ourselves in the same set of circumstances, but if it went on this long with nothing concrete in sight, I could hardly blame anyone for losing patience and sympathy.
If a FTA has no means of enfocement then it does not require these things but also is merely a lot of hot air.
Glad we cleared that up.
However, addressing your point seriously: whilst it is true that due diligence at the country level is difficult (if somebody tells you "my population is 35.7 million", you have to take it on trust: asking people to stick their hands up and go "one, two, three..." doesn't work), the scale of the Greek deception overwhelms it.
However, I do agree that the bailouts were stupid and are now careering from "stupid" to "oh shit" to "oh, just fuck off already"