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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori finds support at a 24 year high for remaining in the EU
One of the reasons I like the Ipsos Mori polling on the EU, is that they’ve been polling on the topic for nearly forty years, they have another poll out today for the the Evening Standard.
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Indeed, one could even say, minute traces, – happy with that
TSE - you have added together the wrong segments on the graph.
Very or fairly confident has risen from 26% to 38%.
The betting opportunities would have been staggeringly good.
Instead we get a simply "Yes/No" question.
Shame on you Mr Cameron.
What a stupendously idiotic move he made.
So the next Indyref would have to be conducted under AV.
Just think, we could have numerous threads that combines the joy of Scottish Independence and AV.
Just sayin'...
"Suzanne Evans has not been sacked as a UKIP spokesman. The email seen by the BBC was issued without proper authority" -UKIP REVERSE FERRET
This is getting very funny from the outside. Can't be much fun inside.
Even those of us who believe membership is to our long-term advantage wanted a closer race than this. Impossible to secure concessions when the referendum is - at this time - clearly going to favour the status quo.
Amateur hour (amateur month) at UKIP is not helping.
Article by Jeremy Corbyn: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/our-eu-referendum-debate-has-been-hijacked-by-xenophobes-and-money-men--heres-what-we-should-really-be-talking-about-10310078.html
Farage's unresignation was probably the final straw. He's appealed to those he could appeal to, but Farage was never going to win the backing of 51% of the public. Over time any leader picks up baggage but a new leader could have built on the groundwork Farage built while shedding his baggage. Farage has chosen himself over his cause.
"When asked if he would support the leader even if they proposed a policy he did not agree with, the West Bromwich MP said: “Oh yes, oh yes. Let me tell you this: whoever is elected leader of the Labour Party will have my 100 per cent support and we’re all going to have to swing in against that leader. "
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/06/19/tom-watson-labour-ukip-deputy_n_7620582.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014
The poll shows 50% more Tory voters will vote In than Out, and that is before Cameron starts campaigning for In. If there is a Tory In campaign, expect uncertain Tory voters to swing towards In.
The reasons why support for staying in has increased are (a) increased support for the government (b) the apparent end to the Eurozone crisis.
Its easy to claim you want "change" when it isn't on the table but most voters are risk-averse. Leaving the EU is a leap away from our status quo and unless people are confident they'll shy away from that.
UKIP becoming toxic hasn't helped, but its probably not the major cause. I think Out would have struggled without a convincing narrative but nobody is making that narrative clearly.
I think UKIP will pick up in the next few years after a bit of a disappointment at the GE - if memory serves it wasn't until 3 years in or so unil there was a UKIP surge after GE2010 - but they are going through a difficult patch, and not making themselves look great, irrespective of others wanting to make them look not great.
Farage is a liability to the OUT movement. Had UKIP been able to show they were a serious threat to the Tories at the last election by taking half a dozen or more seats then he would have served his purpose by increasing the pressure on Cameron to get some real concessions. As it is he comprehensively failed and UKIP under the current leadership can only harm the OUT movement.
One of the best examples I've seen in a long while.
And those that do know something probably do have a genuine thought out view. (One, I suspect that tends to support "Out".)
But the half the population who don't really think about the EU think about it as being a question about whether to vote for "what Farage wants, or what Cameron and the Labour want".
The "Out" cause is tainted by Farage.
(a) The corollary is that as support for the government declines (as it always does) so will unhappiness with the stance on the EU.
I think that winning 4m votes was a big achievement, from having been a fringe party. I've no particular interest in the leadership issue, but UKIP has gone from having 30 council seats to having 500 over the past three years. The party has come first in an EU election, and will likely get into the London and Welsh assemblies next year. Success under FPTP is always incremental.
Once the referendum is out of the way, is there any more need for UKIP?
Only after the election has the notion of one seat won been deemed to be a huge success. That to me is 1984-style Newspeak, a rewriting of history. Again excepting yourself, I don't recall you ever suggesting a high seat haul but I'm sure you remember seat projections by Kippers before the election were almost universally above one.
I believe that the EU will deliver a lot of other desirable things as by-blows by virtue of powerful global trends (e.g. migration), demographics and EU economic tensions.
For the record my prediction of 1 UKIP MP single handedly kept me in the black at the GE. 18 months before I didn't think they'd win any, but might build on 2015 for winning seats in 2020. They could still try that, it was still a success in many ways, but as others have pointed out, many were so optimistic it doesn't look like one now.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85563e82-8f44-11e3-be85-00144feab7de.html#axzz3dUm675KL
A large minority of them don't even serve out their full term as MEPs for various reasons.
http://www.cityam.com/212096/nigel-farage-hits-out-janice-atkinson-expenses-scandal-heres-how-many-ukip-meps-have-served
http://www.libdemvoice.org/how-ukip-managed-to-lose-45-of-their-meps-36404.html
I think we're past peak Kipper now. They very badly screwed up their strategy (if they ever had one) and are now in the process of throwing away the only chance in a generation to leave the EU. Admittedly that was always going to be a very hard chance to grasp, but running off in the opposite direction, trying to sabotage the referendum, doing nothing to prepare the Brexit case, and morphing into a protectionist anti-immigration party were all extremely counter-productive (assuming that they do actually want us to leave the EU).
They'll survive in some form, but no doubt there will be multiple crises, resignations and unresignations as support slowly ebbs away.
I am coming to the view that Grexit is the best thing that can happen to the EU. It will show other countries that the Greek tactics will not work, and it will force the EU to slow ever-closer and instead concentrate on fixing what is not right/turning off national publics about the current system.
Personally, as a Eurosceptic. I am not totally averse to ever-closer if it is a good functioning system. But to get there, we have to fix what's wrong first. It is the vast amount of what is currently wrong, and my lack of belief in any will to overcome bureaucratic inertia to fix it, that makes me a sceptic.
The PSBR as a % of GDP at 4.9% is no higher than that prevalent between 1973 and 1981 under the Chancellorships of Barber, Healey and Howe and is rather lower than that seen between 1992 and 1996 under Lamont and Clarke. Moreover Debt Interest as a % of GDP at 2.5% remains below what it was throughout the period 1975 - 2000. It was only lower on an ongoing basis during the years 2001 to 2009. From memory I do recall that when Neville Chamberlain was Chancellor during the National Govt Debt Interest as a % of GDP was much higher.
I accept that economists have a range of views on these issues. I happen to lean strongly in the direction of Krugman and William Keegan as expounded in The Observer.
If IN wins then there will still need to be an anti-EU party. My hope would be that it would be UKIP sans Farage as I believe there are plenty of good people in the party. But I would not support the party simply for the sake of it and certainly not if Farage continued to lead it with his current attitude/policies.
http://www.amazon.com/D-Day-Screaming-Eagles-George-Koskimaki-ebook/dp/B00CE34W8M?_bbid=1113919&tag=bookbubemailc-20
Gay rights especially are not something most people are opposed to - and it has only been further normalised since legalisation. I've got gay friends who're happily engaged and I'm happy for them - a party opposed to their happiness won't win many votes from not just gay people but their friends and acquaintances too.
But, I thought that it would result in handful of seats, rather than one seat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04yCea2HOhY
I am still expecting a "Yes" vote, if only because the public debate will be as dishonest on the European question as it always is. The forces of conservatism, whether among the big political parties, big business and the trades unions, will be fully behind a "Yes" vote. Nevertheless, it is unsafe to place too much weight on opinion polling at this stage (c.f. the AV and Scots referendums). Most people will not have given that much thought to the question until the campaign, when any honest, informed and reasonable person will have appreciated the "renegotiation" for what it is.
Sunil There are some socially conservative Labour voters
adjective
Absolute; unqualified:
the tour had been an unmitigated disaster
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/unmitigated
The UKIP vote went from 3.1% to 12.6%.
The 9.5% increase was greater than any other party.
The next best was the SNP (+3.1%) and the Greens (+2.8%)
I don't think that this could be considered by any means an "unmitigated failure" for UKIP.
The swing for the SNP was not +3.1%, that is just dishonest.
The Eurosceptic head bangers make all the noise.
I guess the Pro Europeans in the Tory party are a lot like me, shy, restrained, quiet, very modest and lacking self confidence.