politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Labour Deputy Leader race is a five horse race
I wonder if the biggest effect of this will be a boost for Sadiq Khan, as all the main leader/deputy leader contenders being white, as the following twitter exchange featuring the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush shows.
FPT (Start-rant) I hate Gatwick. It is a blemish on the gorgeous county of Sussex.
I've never had a good experience of using Gatwick airport (or is it "Gatport Airwick"). - The amount of walking from main departure area to the departure gates is ridiculous, - several times the security team have taken the pee out of myself or Mrs D. (and never give any advice in response to my polite questions on how I can help them in the future) - security staff once threw my camera onto the screening conveyer belt from where it bounced off and broke, and I was thus left without a camera for my holiday
And this is apart from the fact that it is awful to get to from North London, and the airport facilities are rubbish compared to Heathrow. (End-rant)
Airports in the British Isles seeing more than a million passengers in 2014 (data per Wikipedia articles on each airport):
Airport code Passengers (2014)
Heathrow LHR 73.4 million Gatwick LGW 38.1 million Manchester MAN 22.0 million Dublin DUB 21.7 million Stansted STN 19.9 million Luton LTN 10.5 million Edinburgh EDI 10.2 million Birmingham BHX 9.7 million Glasgow GLA 7.7 million Bristol BRS 6.3 million Newcastle NCL 4.5 million East Midlands EMA 4.5 million Belfast Int'n'l BFS 4.0 million Liverpool LPL 4.0 million Aberdeen ABZ 3.7 million London City LCY 3.6 million Leeds-Bradford LBA 3.3 million Belfast City BHD 2.6 million Cork ORK 2.1 million Southampton SOU 1.8 million Shannon SNN 1.6 million Jersey JER 1.5 million Southend SEN 1.1 million Cardiff CWL 1.0 million
It seems very strange how governments of both right and left have been focused on creating choice and competition in markets and government services, but then think it's best if we create one monopolistic airport.
Whether you look at competition, or nearby air pollution, or how many are affected by noise pollution, or cost to the taxpayer, or diversifying risk in the case of bad weather, Gatwick is the clear choice. Why does anyone support Heathrow as being the place to expand?
Better able to retain it's pre-eminent role as a gateway between Europe and North America. Almost everyone agrees than a greater economic benefit accrues from LHR getting R3 than LGW getting R2.
There's no space for LHR R3 without flattening several villages.
So? The needs of the many...
[that's not entirely flippant, a few hundred people should not hold back the growth of a nation, as LIAMT has also said]
And a million people will be affected by air pollution.
Most of them by an almost immeasurable (and certainly imperceptible) degree. BTW I'm no champion of LHR expantion - indeed I'd be affected by increased noise from the third runway. But I do believe it will offer the best economic benefit to the UK as a whole.
Responding to your other comment, there are no plans to fund any of this, including any rehousing/compensation payments, by the taxpayer.
There were no plans for fiscal transfers in the Eurozone either, and it was strenuously denied at the time that it would ever happen. According to an independent analysis by KPMG, Heathrow will require £12 billion of taxpayer funds.
I also disagree that most of the 1,000,000 will be affected by an imperceptibly small amount. I have friends in Richmond who complain about the frequent noise - certainly they'd be affected by a 30%-50% increase in capacity - and that's more than a borough away.
Para 1: Eurosceptic paranoia
Para 2: You said 'air quality' earlier, so now you're moving the goal posts. I'll respond anyway: The per-runway movements will be broadly where they are now. If you're in Richmond, you're affected by landings on one runway, but not really bothered by landings on the other (or you're less, but equally effected by landings on both). Landings on the third runway will hardly be audible at all. Given improvements in tech, they are likely to suffer less in the future than they do now. They'd have a point if they talked about traffic congestion though...
1. It's not eurosceptic paranoia. Eurozone taxpayers in Germany, Finland etc have already given a loan to Greece that those governments knew they would never get fully back, and had a good chance of barely getting any back. That is a fiscal transfer from one state to another.
Besides, the billions of subsidies estimated by KPMG are nothing to do with euroscepticism.
2. I'm sorry. I mentioned both air quality and noise quality earlier, and did not read the bit you quoted back at me properly. In terms of noise quality, I do not believe that landings on a third runway will hardly be audible at all. What technology exists that makes planes virtually silent?
Watching Osborne at PMQs, granted it was a more sedate affair than normal, but on a superficial level his voice doe not have as much of the impression of instinctive sneering that his face sometimes has.
How ridiculous that Labour will fail you in the verification process if they find evidence that you've made "public criticisms of Labour". I thought the whole point of this new "registered supporter" status was precisely to reach out to people who aren't diehard supporters.
1. It's not eurosceptic paranoia. Eurozone taxpayers in Germany, Finland etc have already given a loan to Greece that those governments knew they would never get fully back, and had a good chance of barely getting any back. That is a fiscal transfer from one state to another.
Besides, the billions of subsidies estimated by KPMG are nothing to do with euroscepticism.
2. I'm sorry. I mentioned both air quality and noise quality earlier, and did not read the bit you quoted back at me properly. In terms of noise quality, I do not believe that landings on a third runway will hardly be audible at all. What technology exists that makes planes virtually silent?
1. One of the bizarre things about the Eurozone is that the ECB has managed to accumulate ¢400bn in capital since the creation of the Euro. That does mean that when Greek defaults then the impact on individual countries finances will be substantially less than people believe. But it also raises the question of why ECB profits are not remitted back to Eurozone members in the same way that Bank of England profits are.
The Deputy Leadership is an essentially meaningless position which means that people can and will vote frivolously. So they won't select the person who in isolation would make the best candidate but the one that balances up their chosen leader.
If Andy Burnham looks like winning, then I expect that the female candidates will benefit from the desire to have a balanced ticket.
If Liz Kendall looks like winning, then I expect Labour members will want to balance their vote to win at all costs with an old-school Labour politician as deputy. That would benefit Tom Watson. It would seem to be bad news for Stella Creasy.
I can't work out who would benefit if Yvette Cooper looks like winning. Maybe Ben Bradshaw?
Taken overall, the odds on Tom Watson look poor to me. I'm not betting on this market but if I did I'd be inclined to bet on both Stella Creasy and Caroline Flint. That looks like it might be a better than evens shot at odds against prices. But I've got other fish to fry right now.
1. It's not eurosceptic paranoia. Eurozone taxpayers in Germany, Finland etc have already given a loan to Greece that those governments knew they would never get fully back, and had a good chance of barely getting any back. That is a fiscal transfer from one state to another.
Besides, the billions of subsidies estimated by KPMG are nothing to do with euroscepticism.
2. I'm sorry. I mentioned both air quality and noise quality earlier, and did not read the bit you quoted back at me properly. In terms of noise quality, I do not believe that landings on a third runway will hardly be audible at all. What technology exists that makes planes virtually silent?
Let's stick to the noise question. We could argue the other one all day and get nowhere!
I've spent large chunks of my life in Isleworth (yuk) and Chiswick (yay). One closer and one futher from LHR than your friends in Richmond. The difference in noise levels between the runways is tremendous, especially if you are directly under one of them. This means the separation between the current runways is enough to have a major impact on the noise depending on where you are. The third runway is a lot further north of the middle runway (the current north runway) than the middle runway is from the south runway. Given Richmond is definitely on the south side of the airport, I'd be surprised if you would even notice a landing on the new runway above ambient road noise.
The impact in other areas will vary, obviously, and lots and lots of people will be affected who are not affected now. That is undeniable.
They are going to spend so much time (and therefore money) on trying to find out if people are proper supporters!
Will cost them more than the £3 they will get!
Their own fault for setting up such an obviously flawed scheme.
It is properly funny. What sort of questions will they ask? Do they show a picture of Maggie and check the subsequent level of froth? An online quiz to ensure you have sufficient, unquestioning love for the NHS and all who work there?
Thanks. A little disappointed in Mass Effect, one of my favourite series ever, being in the distant future - one of the disappointments of the ending of the original trilogy was the lack of payoff in seeing how the characters were affected in the aftermath, and I'd hoped a new game in roughly the same period would be one reason for that approach (so as not to give anything away).
Article: "I’ve spent the last couple of hours looking at this market, and I’ve still not worked out which is the value option". Me neither, mostly because you need a microscope to read the text.
They are going to spend so much time (and therefore money) on trying to find out if people are proper supporters!
Will cost them more than the £3 they will get!
Their own fault for setting up such an obviously flawed scheme.
It is properly funny. What sort of questions will they ask? Do they show a picture of Maggie and check the subsequent level of froth? An online quiz to ensure you have sufficient, unquestioning love for the NHS and all who work there?
Number of hours to save the NHS: a) 1, b) 2, c) 24, d) 48....
Mr. kle4, a year and a half is some way, but it's not all that long. And Fallout 4 should keep you occupied, if you get it.
Asari can live a very long time. It's possible some characters could still be around (many think Andromeda's set in the future relative to ME3, but some think it's concurrent, with the shift to Andromeda being a back-up plan in case the Reapers ruin the Milky Way, so mankind can survive).
Labour can't do anything right. Too nice to Muslims and non-British-ethnic people on the podcast day, not enough Muslims and non-British-ethnic people on the leadership ticket today.
Indeed Burhman and Cooper are the only ones having a broad level of support among most categories of Labour MP's, while Kendall and Corbyn have a very narrow base.
Also I fully support excluding Tories from the Labour leadership election.
Indeed Burhman and Cooper are the only ones having a broad level of support among most categories of Labour MP's, while Kendall and Corbyn have a very narrow base.
Also I fully support excluding Tories from the Labour leadership election.
So Labour have a system for membership that if "they" decide to turn you down without giving you your money back, they can do so?
Will they extend that to sporting events if they get back to power? "Dear sir, thanks for your application for two £60 tickets to see England play. I'm afraid it's over-subscribed but we'll keep the money anyway. Thanks."
A judge-led inquiry beckons. Where's Ed when you need him?
Will they extend that to sporting events if they get back to power? "Dear sir, thanks for your application for two £60 tickets to see England play. I'm afraid it's over-subscribed but we'll keep the money anyway. Thanks."
More like "I'm afraid we think you might be a New Zealand supporter, so we'll keep the money!"
"The star, who was announced as Jeremy Clarkson's replacement on Tuesday, said the show would star at least one woman, chosen not "for the sake of it" but because of their passion for cars."
That does sound like "for the sake of it."
Mr Dancer ... why not extend to to F1. Every team to have at least one female driver. There's diversity for you.
"The star, who was announced as Jeremy Clarkson's replacement on Tuesday, said the show would star at least one woman, chosen not "for the sake of it" but because of their passion for cars."
That does sound like "for the sake of it."
Mr Dancer ... why not extend to to F1. Every team to have at least one female driver. There's diversity for you.
I'd watch a lot more F1 if they mandated each team to have a blind driver. They could be guided by radio: "left a bit, bit more, steady..."
This is the problem for Liz Kendall. She claims she's the leader who "compromises with the electorate", yet on immigration (the most toxic issue of all for Labour) she starts giving out liberal lectures about the benefits of it.
Now you're regressing to stereotypes - although they do come in useful at times.
If you have a choice between two supermarket queues, or ideed any queues, check the number of items in the basket AND the number of women in the queue.
Women have a tendency to be caught by surprise when, after carefully packing their purchases, they are asked to pay. Cue ... a rummaging in purses for their credit card.
They’ve been queueing patiently and it’s never entered their heads that the cashier might want paying. It catches them out at regular intervals.
And if you want your precious new car reversed into a narrow parking space, you’d obviously prefer a .... woman to do it. They may take three times as long and be facing the wrong way, but it would more likely survive intact.
And given a choice between a six foot six or a five foot six player for a basketball team, you’d probably go for the taller one.
Stereotypes don’t always work but bitter experience is a hard taskmaster.
I'm surprised to say quite genuinely that Corbyn is the only one with leadership speaking skills. The other three sound very thin and unstatesmanlike.
Yes, I always thought he came across a bit dull when I've seen him before, but he actually sounds quite pumped up tonight (if you ignore the substance of what he's saying).
1. It's not eurosceptic paranoia. Eurozone taxpayers in Germany, Finland etc have already given a loan to Greece that those governments knew they would never get fully back, and had a good chance of barely getting any back. That is a fiscal transfer from one state to another.
Besides, the billions of subsidies estimated by KPMG are nothing to do with euroscepticism.
2. I'm sorry. I mentioned both air quality and noise quality earlier, and did not read the bit you quoted back at me properly. In terms of noise quality, I do not believe that landings on a third runway will hardly be audible at all. What technology exists that makes planes virtually silent?
Let's stick to the noise question. We could argue the other one all day and get nowhere!
I've spent large chunks of my life in Isleworth (yuk) and Chiswick (yay). One closer and one futher from LHR than your friends in Richmond. The difference in noise levels between the runways is tremendous, especially if you are directly under one of them. This means the separation between the current runways is enough to have a major impact on the noise depending on where you are. The third runway is a lot further north of the middle runway (the current north runway) than the middle runway is from the south runway. Given Richmond is definitely on the south side of the airport, I'd be surprised if you would even notice a landing on the new runway above ambient road noise.
The impact in other areas will vary, obviously, and lots and lots of people will be affected who are not affected now. That is undeniable.
Had they actually narrowed down the location of Heathrow's third runway? I haven't been following it, and the last I saw there were still several options.
I'm sad that my favoured option of Boris Island is a non-runner. This is partly because whatever option is chosen (e.g. Heathrow or Gatwick expansions) will not be very futureproof, but mainly because an airport island is really cool.
I'm surprised to say quite genuinely that Corbyn is the only one with leadership speaking skills. The other three sound very thin and unstatesmanlike.
Unfortunately that is accurate so far. Corbyn looks and behaves more like a normal human being than the other 3. Kendall is so bad she reminds me of Michele Bachmann.
Liz Kendall complains about being a low skill, low wage economy, but then backs high levels of immigration from Eastern Europe and South Asia. How is that consistent?
Burnham overly emotional manner/overtalking/hyperbole isn't doing him any favours. Yvette by comparison is very finger-wagging/cold. And WTF was that stats nonsense about surpluses? Quoting numbers?
Liz doesn't seem to have a clear idea of what she wants.
Comments
(Start-rant)
I hate Gatwick. It is a blemish on the gorgeous county of Sussex.
I've never had a good experience of using Gatwick airport (or is it "Gatport Airwick").
- The amount of walking from main departure area to the departure gates is ridiculous,
- several times the security team have taken the pee out of myself or Mrs D. (and never give any advice in response to my polite questions on how I can help them in the future)
- security staff once threw my camera onto the screening conveyer belt from where it bounced off and broke, and I was thus left without a camera for my holiday
And this is apart from the fact that it is awful to get to from North London, and the airport facilities are rubbish compared to Heathrow.
(End-rant)
Para 2: You said 'air quality' earlier, so now you're moving the goal posts. I'll respond anyway: The per-runway movements will be broadly where they are now. If you're in Richmond, you're affected by landings on one runway, but not really bothered by landings on the other (or you're less, but equally effected by landings on both). Landings on the third runway will hardly be audible at all. Given improvements in tech, they are likely to suffer less in the future than they do now. They'd have a point if they talked about traffic congestion though...
http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&pageid=3&sglid=3
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport_data/2014Annual/Table_02_2_Summary_Of_Activity_at_UK_Airports_2014.pdf
But it's not in descending order of passengers like my pretty yellow table!
1. It's not eurosceptic paranoia. Eurozone taxpayers in Germany, Finland etc have already given a loan to Greece that those governments knew they would never get fully back, and had a good chance of barely getting any back. That is a fiscal transfer from one state to another.
Besides, the billions of subsidies estimated by KPMG are nothing to do with euroscepticism.
2. I'm sorry. I mentioned both air quality and noise quality earlier, and did not read the bit you quoted back at me properly. In terms of noise quality, I do not believe that landings on a third runway will hardly be audible at all. What technology exists that makes planes virtually silent?
Watching Osborne at PMQs, granted it was a more sedate affair than normal, but on a superficial level his voice doe not have as much of the impression of instinctive sneering that his face sometimes has.
If Andy Burnham looks like winning, then I expect that the female candidates will benefit from the desire to have a balanced ticket.
If Liz Kendall looks like winning, then I expect Labour members will want to balance their vote to win at all costs with an old-school Labour politician as deputy. That would benefit Tom Watson. It would seem to be bad news for Stella Creasy.
I can't work out who would benefit if Yvette Cooper looks like winning. Maybe Ben Bradshaw?
Taken overall, the odds on Tom Watson look poor to me. I'm not betting on this market but if I did I'd be inclined to bet on both Stella Creasy and Caroline Flint. That looks like it might be a better than evens shot at odds against prices. But I've got other fish to fry right now.
They are going to spend so much time (and therefore money) on trying to find out if people are proper supporters!
Will cost them more than the £3 they will get!
Their own fault for setting up such an obviously flawed scheme.
I've spent large chunks of my life in Isleworth (yuk) and Chiswick (yay). One closer and one futher from LHR than your friends in Richmond. The difference in noise levels between the runways is tremendous, especially if you are directly under one of them. This means the separation between the current runways is enough to have a major impact on the noise depending on where you are. The third runway is a lot further north of the middle runway (the current north runway) than the middle runway is from the south runway. Given Richmond is definitely on the south side of the airport, I'd be surprised if you would even notice a landing on the new runway above ambient road noise.
The impact in other areas will vary, obviously, and lots and lots of people will be affected who are not affected now. That is undeniable.
FPT: For those interested, Witcher 3 review up [minimal spoilers, it's just the premise, really]:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/review-witcher-3-ps4.html
On-topic: no, it doesn't matter.
On previous thread - regarding that Donald Trump video.
Phew! It looks like a comic spoof. Trump makes Farage look like Ghandi!
a) 1, b) 2, c) 24, d) 48....
Asari can live a very long time. It's possible some characters could still be around (many think Andromeda's set in the future relative to ME3, but some think it's concurrent, with the shift to Andromeda being a back-up plan in case the Reapers ruin the Milky Way, so mankind can survive).
Well he only made the one film and you never heard of him again!
Especially after Churchill chat today
https://supporters.labour.org.uk/leadership/1
http://mattsmithetc.com/labour-leadership-nominations-breakdown/
Also I fully support excluding Tories from the Labour leadership election.
So Labour have a system for membership that if "they" decide to turn you down without giving you your money back, they can do so?
Will they extend that to sporting events if they get back to power? "Dear sir, thanks for your application for two £60 tickets to see England play. I'm afraid it's over-subscribed but we'll keep the money anyway. Thanks."
A judge-led inquiry beckons. Where's Ed when you need him?
There can be only one winner
From the BBC ... talking about Evans' co-hosts.
"The star, who was announced as Jeremy Clarkson's replacement on Tuesday, said the show would star at least one woman, chosen not "for the sake of it" but because of their passion for cars."
That does sound like "for the sake of it."
Mr Dancer ... why not extend to to F1. Every team to have at least one female driver. There's diversity for you.
Now you're regressing to stereotypes - although they do come in useful at times.
If you have a choice between two supermarket queues, or ideed any queues, check the number of items in the basket AND the number of women in the queue.
Women have a tendency to be caught by surprise when, after carefully packing their purchases, they are asked to pay. Cue ... a rummaging in purses for their credit card.
They’ve been queueing patiently and it’s never entered their heads that the cashier might want paying. It catches them out at regular intervals.
And if you want your precious new car reversed into a narrow parking space, you’d obviously prefer a .... woman to do it. They may take three times as long and be facing the wrong way, but it would more likely survive intact.
And given a choice between a six foot six or a five foot six player for a basketball team, you’d probably go for the taller one.
Stereotypes don’t always work but bitter experience is a hard taskmaster.
Obviously I'm biased.
"I'm a woman"
He successfully dodges it.
I'm sad that my favoured option of Boris Island is a non-runner. This is partly because whatever option is chosen (e.g. Heathrow or Gatwick expansions) will not be very futureproof, but mainly because an airport island is really cool.
Corbyn looks and behaves more like a normal human being than the other 3.
Kendall is so bad she reminds me of Michele Bachmann.
Burnham, Kendall and Corbyn actually have things to say, which is why I suspect Cooper will end up winning.
Liz might be a fresh start but I don't think she is shining.
No overspending in the past...
Liz doesn't seem to have a clear idea of what she wants.
Corbyn does not answer the question but he gets an applause anyway.