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To we non economists, Greece and the Euro seems to be the most doomed relationship in that part of the world since Helen eloped with Paris, there is increased talk of a Grexit in recent days, so how will a Grexit impact on British politics?

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PClipp

First...

RobD

PClipp said:

First...

You got lucky this time, sir.

RobD

On Scenario I - If it were only renamed the British Empire, no one in Britain would have a problem with being in it!

kle4

The threat of grexit has been ever present for years. Would the reality prove that significant then? Honestly I can see the case for all the scenarios listed, but 2 seems a likely one. At some point surely even the EU will struggle to fudge things and kick the can down the road again?

kle4

Whatever happened to Paris? For bringing down that kind of wrath I'd expect him to be hated by his own side long before the breaking of the siege.

MTimT

The Germans, Dutch, Swedes and Danes will not want the UK to leave, and so Scenario 1 should be the most likely. But, while they will make some effort to be seen to be helping Cameron, their hearts won't be in the full-fledged reform required, and they won't die in a ditch for the UK, so they'll eventually acquiesce to the takers within the EU, and general inertia will prevail. So my guess is scenario 2

Sandpit

Morning!

I guess other known unknowns are that the referendum is treated as being on something else - maybe a desire to kick an unpopular mid-term government - or that the migrant crisis escalates in Southern Europe and there is pressure on the UK from the EU to accept economic migrants arriving illegally from Africa.

Another plausible scenario is that Cameron tries desperately to dress up a fig leaf received from the negotiations as as a dinner suit, and manages to split his party in half before the referendum. What happens in that case is anyone's guess!

JosiasJessop

Sandpit said:

Morning!

I guess other known unknowns are that the referendum is treated as being on something else - maybe a desire to kick an unpopular mid-term government - or that the migrant crisis escalates in Southern Europe and there is pressure on the UK from the EU to accept economic migrants arriving illegally from Africa.

Another plausible scenario is that Cameron tries desperately to dress up a fig leaf received from the negotiations as as a dinner suit, and manages to split his party in half before the referendum. What happens in that case is anyone's guess!

If Labour also vociferously support 'in' as well as the government, then the kicking of an unpopular mid-term government becomes less of an issue.

It'd be amusing if, after negotiations, Cameron suggested 'out'. I doubt it'd happen, but it would be funny to see some people readjusting their positions.

Dair

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed and probably in 2017 or 2018 at the latest, this needs to be factored into how the UK government approaches the EU Referendum. While the Second Independence vote will be after the EU Vote, the Holyrood Election will now definitely be before the EU Vote.

The spectre of a second Scottish Vote will hang over the EU Vote however it is played by the Tories.

CarlottaVance

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed and probably in 2017 or 2018 at the latest, this needs to be factored into how the UK government approaches the EU Referendum. While the Second Independence vote will be after the EU Vote, the Holyrood Election will now definitely be before the EU Vote.

The spectre of a second Scottish Vote will hang over the EU Vote however it is played by the Tories.

I suspect you overestimate the importance of the views of 8% of the UK on the other 92%

Scott_P

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

david_herdson

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

blackburn63

I feel sorry for ordinary Greeks, a perfect example of how not to run a country, as usual the worse off you are the more you'll suffer. Their plight will be to the UK's advantage, sufficient people will eventually like Scenario IV.

And we should we delighted with that, at last a situation where the political elite is overruled by the people.

DavidL

kle4 said:

Whatever happened to Paris? For bringing down that kind of wrath I'd expect him to be hated by his own side long before the breaking of the siege.

He doesn't seem to have been but Homer is rather rude about his fighting abilities other than with a bow and he got some criticism from that from Hector and others. He was killed in the war.

Richard_Tyndall

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Because a default within the Eurozone sends a message to other potential opponents of austerity and ECB interference that they can ignore what the EU wants and simply default themselves without fear of being thrown out. At this moment in time contagion must be one of the main fears playing on the minds of the ECB.

david_herdson

blackburn63 said:

I feel sorry for ordinary Greeks, a perfect example of how not to run a country, as usual the worse off you are the more you'll suffer. Their plight will be to the UK's advantage, sufficient people will eventually like Scenario IV.

And we should we delighted with that, at last a situation where the political elite is overruled by the people.

It's the ordinary Greeks who are to blame for this, demanding what they haven't earned and electing government that irresponsibly promise it. That might have been understandable in the never-never years post-Euroization but is completely denialist since the crash.

There is no reason to assume that Greece would be any better of with a New Drachma. Would people lend to them in it? If so, what interest rates would they charge? Would a Greek Central Bank print to make up the difference, particularly with a populist-extremist government in charge? QE is, after all, legitimate these days.

People have said that the discipline of having their own currency would force Greece to behave. That was exactly the same argument for them joining the Euro: that they couldn't go on with devalue-and-pretend and that it would have to force a change in thinking. It didn't. Leaving the Euro would almost certainly result in Greeks believing that they had thrown off the straightjacket of Eurozone rules and so could leave off the discipline too.

Scott_P

david_herdson said:

Leaving the Euro would almost certainly result in Greeks believing that they had thrown off the straightjacket of Eurozone rules and so could leave off the discipline too.

The difference is the interest rates they will have to pay to borrow on the international markets, although of course Putin might give them a bung

JosiasJessop

Scott_P said:

david_herdson said:

Leaving the Euro would almost certainly result in Greeks believing that they had thrown off the straightjacket of Eurozone rules and so could leave off the discipline too.

The difference is the interest rates they will have to pay to borrow on the international markets, although of course Putin might give them a bung

Can Putin afford a bung?

Scott_P

JosiasJessop said:

Can Putin afford a bung?

As a bargaining chip, probably.

david_herdson

Richard_Tyndall said:

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Because a default within the Eurozone sends a message to other potential opponents of austerity and ECB interference that they can ignore what the EU wants and simply default themselves without fear of being thrown out. At this moment in time contagion must be one of the main fears playing on the minds of the ECB.

That would depend on what happens next. I still think that the Greek public don't believe it's going to happen and that Syriza's popularity will vanish like snow in June if their confrontational approach, which until now has delivered minor benefits compared with their ND/Pasok predecessors, ends in disaster.

For the Eurocrats, there is a real risk that a country being booted out, followed by a country choosing to leave, would set two precedents that could undermine their whole project.

It may not be likely but it is certainly a scenario worth considering.

DavidL

TSE understandably focusses on the UK scenarios but the impact on the UK will depend on what happens in Greece. The scenarios there are:

(1) A last minute compromise is found involving some actual debt forgiveness and a lot of interest forgoing in exchange for Greece adopting radical policies like having its better off citizens paying tax. Impact on the UK: negligible. I still think this is the most likely.

(2) Greece defaults in a disorderly way and has to leave the Euro. The inevitability of ever closer Union is shattered for ever. Economic chaos in Greece results in a need for major aid. Impact on the UK: modest but generally makes Out a little stronger. Also nails the lie for at least 6 months that governments can borrow what they like and makes cutting our deficit (larger than Greece's) an absolute priority as sovereign debt takes a serious dent. This damages the Government's popularity at the same time that it destroys Labour's last shred of credibility. Increases the risk of an anti government vote in the referendum.

(3) Greece defaults and is kicked out of the EU. Becomes a failed state. All of the above with knobs on but the question of whether Greece is seen to be on the road to some kind of recovery by the time of the referendum will be key.

david_herdson

Scott_P said:

david_herdson said:

Leaving the Euro would almost certainly result in Greeks believing that they had thrown off the straightjacket of Eurozone rules and so could leave off the discipline too.

The difference is the interest rates they will have to pay to borrow on the international markets, ...

Oh, absolutely. But I don't think the average Syriza voter will understand that until it hits them smack in the face (or pocket), and quite possibly not even then.

blackburn63

david_herdson said:

blackburn63 said:

I feel sorry for ordinary Greeks, a perfect example of how not to run a country, as usual the worse off you are the more you'll suffer. Their plight will be to the UK's advantage, sufficient people will eventually like Scenario IV.

And we should we delighted with that, at last a situation where the political elite is overruled by the people.

It's the ordinary Greeks who are to blame for this, demanding what they haven't earned and electing government that irresponsibly promise it. That might have been understandable in the never-never years post-Euroization but is completely denialist since the crash.

There is no reason to assume that Greece would be any better of with a New Drachma. Would people lend to them in it? If so, what interest rates would they charge? Would a Greek Central Bank print to make up the difference, particularly with a populist-extremist government in charge? QE is, after all, legitimate these days.

People have said that the discipline of having their own currency would force Greece to behave. That was exactly the same argument for them joining the Euro: that they couldn't go on with devalue-and-pretend and that it would have to force a change in thinking. It didn't. Leaving the Euro would almost certainly result in Greeks believing that they had thrown off the straightjacket of Eurozone rules and so could leave off the discipline too.

Without doubt the Greek people must carry responsibility but until or unless they are cast adrift they'll never learn. Let them return to what they see as freedom and prosperity in the form of the drachma and let them see reality. And allow the people of the UK to see the ridiculous situation of continually bailing out people with irresponsible approaches to their finances.

The Greek loss will be our gain, it will hasten our exit from the EU.

JosiasJessop

DavidL said:

TSE understandably focusses on the UK scenarios but the impact on the UK will depend on what happens in Greece. The scenarios there are:

(1) A last minute compromise is found involving some actual debt forgiveness and a lot of interest forgoing in exchange for Greece adopting radical policies like having its better off citizens paying tax. Impact on the UK: negligible. I still think this is the most likely.

(2) Greece defaults in a disorderly way and has to leave the Euro. The inevitability of ever closer Union is shattered for ever. Economic chaos in Greece results in a need for major aid. Impact on the UK: modest but generally makes Out a little stronger. Also nails the lie for at least 6 months that governments can borrow what they like and makes cutting our deficit (larger than Greece's) an absolute priority as sovereign debt takes a serious dent. This damages the Government's popularity at the same time that it destroys Labour's last shred of credibility. Increases the risk of an anti government vote in the referendum.

(3) Greece defaults and is kicked out of the EU. Becomes a failed state. All of the above with knobs on but the question of whether Greece is seen to be on the road to some kind of recovery by the time of the referendum will be key.

I'm not sure that the inevitability of ever closer Union is shattered for ever, in case (2). In fact, I can imagine some of the more fanatical Europhiles will want to use any disorderly Greek exit as a reason for closer union, to 'prevent it happening again'.

In fact, some may actually want it.

If Greece does leave, what odds a much poorer Greece rejoining in ten or twenty years, kowtowed and humbled?

Casino_Royale

(1) applies to Greece, not the UK. The US and EU will do almost anything to keep Greece inside the euro, and away from Russian influence.

Grexit is the boy who cried wolf, and has been for several years now.

On the UK, the EU will make some very token, non-contentious paper-changes, promise to look at a few more at an unspecified time in the future (when the next treaty change is up) ..and then call the UK's bluff.

richardDodd

OT..The Pope slams world leaders as he agrees with the climate change scientists..The same Pope whose religion encourages unlimited population growth mainly in the poorer countries of the world..joined up thinking there Popey

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Precisely. I can see Greece defaulting, but staying in the Euro. No-one - not the IMF, US, EU, or Greece itself - wants them to leave. Russia may be the exception.

A fudge will be found.

SquareRoot

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

DavidL

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

TSE understandably focusses on the UK scenarios but the impact on the UK will depend on what happens in Greece. The scenarios there are:

(1) A last minute compromise is found involving some actual debt forgiveness and a lot of interest forgoing in exchange for Greece adopting radical policies like having its better off citizens paying tax. Impact on the UK: negligible. I still think this is the most likely.

(2) Greece defaults in a disorderly way and has to leave the Euro. The inevitability of ever closer Union is shattered for ever. Economic chaos in Greece results in a need for major aid. Impact on the UK: modest but generally makes Out a little stronger. Also nails the lie for at least 6 months that governments can borrow what they like and makes cutting our deficit (larger than Greece's) an absolute priority as sovereign debt takes a serious dent. This damages the Government's popularity at the same time that it destroys Labour's last shred of credibility. Increases the risk of an anti government vote in the referendum.

(3) Greece defaults and is kicked out of the EU. Becomes a failed state. All of the above with knobs on but the question of whether Greece is seen to be on the road to some kind of recovery by the time of the referendum will be key.

I'm not sure that the inevitability of ever closer Union is shattered for ever, in case (2). In fact, I can imagine some of the more fanatical Europhiles will want to use any disorderly Greek exit as a reason for closer union, to 'prevent it happening again'.

In fact, some may actually want it.

If Greece does leave, what odds a much poorer Greece rejoining in ten or twenty years, kowtowed and humbled?

They would be right. The catastrophe that is Greece will demonstrate vividly that the Euro cannot survive in the long run without a much, much greater degree of fiscal union. This would drive a need for treaty change which would greatly strengthen Cameron's hand, albeit the continentals would be irritated by the distraction in a time of crisis.

But a precedent would have been set and the idea of someone else leaving (eg Italy) would no longer be unthinkable. That would change the rules of the game radically.

foxinsoxuk

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Precisely. I can see Greece defaulting, but staying in the Euro. No-one - not the IMF, US, EU, or Greece itself - wants them to leave. Russia may be the exception.

A fudge will be found.

Defaulting within the Eurozone has its own problems, but are these worse than default and Grexit?

DavidL

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

Sandpit

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Precisely. I can see Greece defaulting, but staying in the Euro. No-one - not the IMF, US, EU, or Greece itself - wants them to leave. Russia may be the exception.

A fudge will be found.

Surely the only way that Greece can stay in the Euro is if there are transfer payments within the EuroZone - in other words that Germany pays the bill under enhanced fiscal co-operation.

Whether the German taxpayers are in any way happy to bail out the Greeks who don't like paying taxes but do like retiring at 50 is anyone's guess.

SquareRoot

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

if Greece defaulted. what would happen to the Euro in value terms.. a major devaluation?

Dair

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The point is independence. The UK Government has just justified a Second Referendum and indeed made calls for it absolutely overwhelming.

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

DavidL

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Precisely. I can see Greece defaulting, but staying in the Euro. No-one - not the IMF, US, EU, or Greece itself - wants them to leave. Russia may be the exception.

A fudge will be found.

Defaulting within the Eurozone has its own problems, but are these worse than default and Grexit?

I think this gravely underestimates the importance of a lender of last resort. If Greece defaults the ECB will no longer provide credit facilities to Greek banks. In fact that is a step that may well trigger the default. At that point the entire Greek banking system collapses. The government has no access to cash and nor does the rest of the population. The government has to issue a new currency to pay wages and allow some nationalised banks to operate. In doing so Greece has left the Euro.

I am tempted to add that Scottish Nationalists might also get a lesson in how important a credible lender of last resort is but that is really going too far into fantasy.

Sandpit

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

Surely anyone with any money in Greece now has it either offshore or under the bed?

Sales of cars are up this year, as they are pretty much valued in Euros no matter what happens to the Greek currency. I guess the rich are also buying gold and diamonds for the same reason.

Scott_P

Dair said:

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

Oh dear. I think you need to check with zoomer central for your new lines

Nicola admitted £4Bn

DavidL

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

if Greece defaulted. what would happen to the Euro in value terms.. a major devaluation?

Maybe initially but Greece is only 2% of the EU and the contagion would be a lot more limited (because the international banks now face only minor losses) than it would have been a few years ago. I think a lot would depend on what happened next. If fiscal union became inevitable I think the Euro would strengthen.

Sandpit

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

if Greece defaulted. what would happen to the Euro in value terms.. a major devaluation?

If Greece exits it may well leave the EZ stronger in the short term, although probably weaker in the medium term as the possibility rises that someone else might exit. It most likely depends on how orderly the default is managed by the ECB - the less orderly it's done the weaker the Euro as a result.

Casino_Royale

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Precisely. I can see Greece defaulting, but staying in the Euro. No-one - not the IMF, US, EU, or Greece itself - wants them to leave. Russia may be the exception.

A fudge will be found.

Defaulting within the Eurozone has its own problems, but are these worse than default and Grexit?

I don't think so. The EU and US are terrified of Grexit, despite what the Germans may blow off about occasionally in public.

Greece will stay.

Dair

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

Oh dear. I think you need to check with zoomer central for your new lines

Nicola admitted £4Bn

And they will always admit a deficit in line with the population share of UK Debt until, after a Yes vote, they are in negotiation over Currency Union. At which point the negotiations on Currency Union and any Debt Share break down and Scotland enters Sterlingisation (probably only in the medium term when we move to our own currency but if it shows stability possibly in the long term).

The beauty of the way the SNP set it up before the First Referendum is that the breakdown on currency negotiations would have been casused by the rUK which is by far the best of both worlds for an Independent Scotland.

Sandpit

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

You keep saying this but backed up by no evidence whatsoever. In what way is Scotland subsidising England?

Sure they will be contributing to the UK budget - agreed by the whole of the UK - for UK reserved matters such as defence, aid and debt interest, but these will have to be paid whether Scotland is part of the UK or not.

DecrepitJohnL

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Precisely. I can see Greece defaulting, but staying in the Euro. No-one - not the IMF, US, EU, or Greece itself - wants them to leave. Russia may be the exception.

A fudge will be found.

Surely the only way that Greece can stay in the Euro is if there are transfer payments within the EuroZone - in other words that Germany pays the bill under enhanced fiscal co-operation.

Whether the German taxpayers are in any way happy to bail out the Greeks who don't like paying taxes but do like retiring at 50 is anyone's guess.

Wearing their other hats, the German taxpayers are German wage-earners who do very nicely, thank you, from having their balance of trade boosted by an artificially undervalued currency (including exports to Greece).

DavidL

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

Surely anyone with any money in Greece now has it either offshore or under the bed?

Sales of cars are up this year, as they are pretty much valued in Euros no matter what happens to the Greek currency. I guess the rich are also buying gold and diamonds for the same reason.

You can't take your car to the supermarket and use it to buy groceries. Ditto jewellery. You can of course use it to leave Greece and I suspect many would.

The level of hardship caused to the Greek people by a default is, in my view, being spectacularly underestimated. The EU may well have another million refugees to deal with and many would try to come here.

richardDodd

There will not be a currency union with rUK after Scotland leaves..Why is this so difficult for people like Dair to understand

Dair

Sandpit said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

You keep saying this but backed up by no evidence whatsoever. In what way is Scotland subsidising England?

Sure they will be contributing to the UK budget agreed by the UK for UK reserved matters such as defence, aid and debt interest, but these will have to be paid whether Scotland is part of the UK or not.

You miss out the £3bn per annum Scotland currently sends to England under the National Infrastructure Plan which is not spent in Scotland (Scotland gets a couple hundred million when it's population share would merit over £3bn). There is no chance an independent Scotland would spend £3.5bn per annum on defence (White Paper projection was £2.5bn which is more than most similar countries). There is no chance an independent Scotland would send rUK £3.5bn per annum for Westminster's debt.

Alanbrooke

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The point is independence. The UK Government has just justified a Second Referendum and indeed made calls for it absolutely overwhelming.

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

ROFLMAO

How ? Won't you be subsidising southern european basket cases instead ?

Dair

richardDodd said:

There will not be a currency union with rUK after Scotland leaves..Why is this so difficult for people like Dair to understand

If you read my posts you would see that I agree with that. Scotland will use Sterlingisation.

And as a result of the rUK's failure to achieve Currency Union it will get zero contribution to its debt interest.

foxinsoxuk

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Precisely. I can see Greece defaulting, but staying in the Euro. No-one - not the IMF, US, EU, or Greece itself - wants them to leave. Russia may be the exception.

A fudge will be found.

Defaulting within the Eurozone has its own problems, but are these worse than default and Grexit?

I don't think so. The EU and US are terrified of Grexit, despite what the Germans may blow off about occasionally in public.

Greece will stay.

I think so too. If Greece defaults then Greek banks will shortly fail, but what happens next? Either a new Drachma or Greece copes with a banking crash in other ways, with a cash economy or overseas banks buying up the bankrupt Greek banking assets at knockdown prices.

richardDodd

Dair sometimes you make MG sound sensible..

foxinsoxuk

Dair said:

Sandpit said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

You keep saying this but backed up by no evidence whatsoever. In what way is Scotland subsidising England?

Sure they will be contributing to the UK budget agreed by the UK for UK reserved matters such as defence, aid and debt interest, but these will have to be paid whether Scotland is part of the UK or not.

You miss out the £3bn per annum Scotland currently sends to England under the National Infrastructure Plan which is not spent in Scotland (Scotland gets a couple hundred million when it's population share would merit over £3bn). There is no chance an independent Scotland would spend £3.5bn per annum on defence (White Paper projection was £2.5bn which is more than most similar countries). There is no chance an independent Scotland would send rUK £3.5bn per annum for Westminster's debt.

It is ironic that the UK country that does not want to pay for its borrowing wants to end austerity by borrowing more. Truly Dair belongs to the Syrizia of the North rather than the SNP.

AlastairMeeks

Dair said:

Sandpit said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

You keep saying this but backed up by no evidence whatsoever. In what way is Scotland subsidising England?

Sure they will be contributing to the UK budget agreed by the UK for UK reserved matters such as defence, aid and debt interest, but these will have to be paid whether Scotland is part of the UK or not.

You miss out the £3bn per annum Scotland currently sends to England under the National Infrastructure Plan which is not spent in Scotland (Scotland gets a couple hundred million when it's population share would merit over £3bn). There is no chance an independent Scotland would spend £3.5bn per annum on defence (White Paper projection was £2.5bn which is more than most similar countries). There is no chance an independent Scotland would send rUK £3.5bn per annum for Westminster's debt.

This is a political betting site. What odds will you give me that if Scotland goes independent that it takes no responsibility for the UK's historic debt? I'd be very keen to bet on this "no chance" proposition in a suitably worded bet.

Sean_F

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

Whatever happened to Paris? For bringing down that kind of wrath I'd expect him to be hated by his own side long before the breaking of the siege.

He doesn't seem to have been but Homer is rather rude about his fighting abilities other than with a bow and he got some criticism from that from Hector and others. He was killed in the war.

Paris did get the shitty end of the stick. Having to choose which of three goddesses is the most beautiful automatically makes an enemy out of two of them.

Then he got belittled as a coward for being an archer (real men fight with swords) despite killing Achilles.

Alanbrooke

Dair said:

richardDodd said:

There will not be a currency union with rUK after Scotland leaves..Why is this so difficult for people like Dair to understand

If you read my posts you would see that I agree with that. Scotland will use Sterlingisation.

And as a result of the rUK's failure to achieve Currency Union it will get zero contribution to its debt interest.

Even funnier.

You default on your debt share and launch a currency based on a declining commodity.

#McZimbabwe

CarlottaVance

Dair said:

richardDodd said:

There will not be a currency union with rUK after Scotland leaves..Why is this so difficult for people like Dair to understand

If you read my posts you would see that I agree with that. Scotland will use Sterlingisation.

And as a result of the rUK's failure to achieve Currency Union it will get zero contribution to its debt interest.

And will veto any application to join the EU..........

Moses_

Yay!
TSE works a Eurovision song title into a thread header. Is Dana Helen's sister? ;-)

Scenario IV because no one votes for us in Eurovision anyway.

Financier

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33132591

This sets out the repayments due by Greece over the next three months.
M Hollande is getting very worried - could France be next in line?

SquareRoot

foxinsoxuk said:

Dair said:

Sandpit said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

You keep saying this but backed up by no evidence whatsoever. In what way is Scotland subsidising England?

Sure they will be contributing to the UK budget agreed by the UK for UK reserved matters such as defence, aid and debt interest, but these will have to be paid whether Scotland is part of the UK or not.

You miss out the £3bn per annum Scotland currently sends to England under the National Infrastructure Plan which is not spent in Scotland (Scotland gets a couple hundred million when it's population share would merit over £3bn). There is no chance an independent Scotland would spend £3.5bn per annum on defence (White Paper projection was £2.5bn which is more than most similar countries). There is no chance an independent Scotland would send rUK £3.5bn per annum for Westminster's debt.

It is ironic that the UK country that does not want to pay for its borrowing wants to end austerity by borrowing more. Truly Dair belongs to the Syrizia of the North rather than the SNP.

To make it simple for Dair, its pretty much like maxing out your credit cards and then blaming the banks for letting you run up the debt and refusing to pay it back.

Sandpit

Dair said:

Sandpit said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

You keep saying this but backed up by no evidence whatsoever. In what way is Scotland subsidising England?

Sure they will be contributing to the UK budget agreed by the UK for UK reserved matters such as defence, aid and debt interest, but these will have to be paid whether Scotland is part of the UK or not.

You miss out the £3bn per annum Scotland currently sends to England under the National Infrastructure Plan which is not spent in Scotland (Scotland gets a couple hundred million when it's population share would merit over £3bn). There is no chance an independent Scotland would spend £3.5bn per annum on defence (White Paper projection was £2.5bn which is more than most similar countries). There is no chance an independent Scotland would send rUK £3.5bn per annum for Westminster's debt.

The National Infrastructure Plan I will have to find my own link for, I see.

The idea of Scotland being some pacifist nation making do with no more than couple of lifeboats for defence is ludicrous - have they not seen more Russian Bears this week flying up to the Scottish coast? An independent Scotland would have an enormous coastline and territorial waters which will need protecting and policing. If Scotland were to slash defence spending, how would they deal with the resulting drop in GDP and rise in unemployment?

An independent Scotland would inherit a proportion of the UK govt debt when they leave the UK. They would be free to replace it by selling Scottish debt if they prefer not to pay "Westminster" directly. However there will be no "Currency Union" between rUK and an independent Scotland and the BoE will not be the lender of last resort to them either - this was made quite clear last year.

Financier

O/T

Pupils will have to score more highly to gain a "good pass" in their GCSEs, under changes to England's exams.

Candidates will have to obtain a Grade 5, equivalent to a low B or high C now, as grading switches to numbers nine to one in exams to be taken first in 2017.

The aim is to make standards comparable to top-performing countries such as Finland, Canada, and the Netherlands.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33139954

DavidL

antifrank said:

Dair said:

Sandpit said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

You keep saying this but backed up by no evidence whatsoever. In what way is Scotland subsidising England?

Sure they will be contributing to the UK budget agreed by the UK for UK reserved matters such as defence, aid and debt interest, but these will have to be paid whether Scotland is part of the UK or not.

You miss out the £3bn per annum Scotland currently sends to England under the National Infrastructure Plan which is not spent in Scotland (Scotland gets a couple hundred million when it's population share would merit over £3bn). There is no chance an independent Scotland would spend £3.5bn per annum on defence (White Paper projection was £2.5bn which is more than most similar countries). There is no chance an independent Scotland would send rUK £3.5bn per annum for Westminster's debt.

This is a political betting site. What odds will you give me that if Scotland goes independent that it takes no responsibility for the UK's historic debt? I'd be very keen to bet on this "no chance" proposition in a suitably worded bet.

For a short time an independent Scotland may be able to fund itself by selling the deserted city of Edinburgh on Ebay. I made the mistake of being at the Gyle at 5.00pm on Friday reminding me once again how critical our large Scottish banks are to Scotland's private sector employment.

A Scotland without a lender of last resort would be a desperately impoverished place. And the idea that we are going to have one whilst walking away from UK debt goes beyond fantasy into insanity.

Dair

Alanbrooke said:

Dair said:

richardDodd said:

There will not be a currency union with rUK after Scotland leaves..Why is this so difficult for people like Dair to understand

If you read my posts you would see that I agree with that. Scotland will use Sterlingisation.

And as a result of the rUK's failure to achieve Currency Union it will get zero contribution to its debt interest.

Even funnier.

You default on your debt share and launch a currency based on a declining commodity.

#McZimbabwe

More economic illiteracy from Brit Nats.

Scotland would use Sterlingisation, then, depending how beneficial that proved, either continue under Sterlingisation or move to their own currency (assuming that the Euro continues to struggle which is not guaranteed).

There are quite significant benefits in remaining under Sterlingisation. The only real downside is that Scotland would miss potentially significant growth through currency revaluations that a new currency would offer.

Pulpstar

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

Now, it's true that the politics of this are different. Greece's default would be not to private investors but to the other Eurozone members and international institutions, which is not going to make the other members sympathetic towards them, particularly given the Greek government's alternately childish, selfish and ultimately counter-productive policies. All the more so as these seem to interpret accurately what the Greek public wants (which is to have its cake and eat it, something only really possible if you have your cake and eat someone else's).

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Precisely. I can see Greece defaulting, but staying in the Euro. No-one - not the IMF, US, EU, or Greece itself - wants them to leave. Russia may be the exception.

A fudge will be found.

Defaulting within the Eurozone has its own problems, but are these worse than default and Grexit?

I don't think so. The EU and US are terrified of Grexit, despite what the Germans may blow off about occasionally in public.

Greece will stay.

I think so too. If Greece defaults then Greek banks will shortly fail, but what happens next? Either a new Drachma or Greece copes with a banking crash in other ways, with a cash economy or overseas banks buying up the bankrupt Greek banking assets at knockdown prices.

Not just the banking assets - this could be investor's chance to own stuff like the Acropolis, the islands of Corfu, Kos. Greece could get out of debt but it would have to pay the price.

Moses_

richardDodd said:

There will not be a currency union with rUK after Scotland leaves..Why is this so difficult for people like Dair to understand

I think wee Eck said they would join the EU and take the Euro after independence and there was no bar to them doing so?

Scott_P

This is tragic, but explains a lot about the zoomers

@PeteWishart: I think today will be another day when Scots will have to resort to new media to find out what's been happening in their country. #FFA #vow

Switch off the TV and radio, don't read a paper. They're lying to you!

Just check in with your zoomer friends on facebook who will feed your fantasy and stoke your grievances tell you what is really happening...

Dair

DavidL said:

A Scotland without a lender of last resort would be a desperately impoverished place. And the idea that we are going to have one whilst walking away from UK debt goes beyond fantasy into insanity.

Ah the great canard of Unionism.

Perhaps you can tell us what you *think* a Lender of Last Resort is and who you *think* is the Lender of Last Resort for the United Kingdom and how this has worked in recent decades.

Sandpit

http://www.building.co.uk/infrastructure-pipeline-microsite/map/

Seems to be plenty going on in Scotland, including 1.5bn on offshore wind farm development, hydro power development onshore, electrification of the rail line between Glasgow and Edinburgh and improvements to airports at both ends of it. Also UK govt funding for oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

Mr Dair, please enlighten us again as to how Scotland is somehow getting a raw deal out of infrastructure spending?

Moses_

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Dair said:

Sandpit said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Dair said:

Now that a Second Referendum in Scotland is guaranteed

Nicola is not as stupid as her supporters make out. She will not call a referendum until she can fill the black hole

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

You keep saying this but backed up by no evidence whatsoever. In what way is Scotland subsidising England?

Sure they will be contributing to the UK budget agreed by the UK for UK reserved matters such as defence, aid and debt interest, but these will have to be paid whether Scotland is part of the UK or not.

You miss out the £3bn per annum Scotland currently sends to England under the National Infrastructure Plan which is not spent in Scotland (Scotland gets a couple hundred million when it's population share would merit over £3bn). There is no chance an independent Scotland would spend £3.5bn per annum on defence (White Paper projection was £2.5bn which is more than most similar countries). There is no chance an independent Scotland would send rUK £3.5bn per annum for Westminster's debt.

It is ironic that the UK country that does not want to pay for its borrowing wants to end austerity by borrowing more. Truly Dair belongs to the Syrizia of the North rather than the SNP.

To make it simple for Dair, its pretty much like maxing out your credit cards and then blaming the banks for letting you run up the debt and refusing to pay it back.

Just like the Labour Party pre 2008 then.

AlastairMeeks

A few semi-connected thoughts related to the thread header:

1) Alexei Tsipras looks unable to deliver a substantial concession on Greece's behalf even if he wishes to. He does not have sufficient control of his party. All relevant parties know this. So the only question is whether the creditors will blink.

2) Being seen to cave into Greece's demands would be devastating for the credibility of the EU, the IMF and Angela Merkel.

3) There does not seem to be a deal from here that will not appear to be a defeat for one or other (and perhaps both) sides.

4) Since a deal would be devastating for the credibility of at least one side, I am now concluding that we will probably see a default of some sort.

5) Can Greece stay in the Euro after a default of some sort? Yes, if the affected creditors decide so. Would they wish to? That depends on who most visibly bears the pain of default. If the Greeks don't seem to be suffering hideously, the creditors will want their pound of flesh.

So everything depends on what happens after default. No one really seems to know in practice. But the general impression of a dysfunctional EU that is failing its citizens will be a racing certainty. That has to be good for Out.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Do we have a date for D-Day?

Plato

I thought that was a spoof. Dear oh dear.

Scott_P said:

This is tragic, but explains a lot about the zoomers

@PeteWishart: I think today will be another day when Scots will have to resort to new media to find out what's been happening in their country. #FFA #vow

Switch off the TV and radio, don't read a paper. They're lying to you!

Just check in with your zoomer friends on facebook who will feed your fantasy and stoke your grievances tell you what is really happening...

Charles

Dair said:

The Deficit is completely removed by Independence when Scotland stops subsidising England.

No matter how many times you repeat this, it doesn't make it true

CarlottaVance

Moses_ said:

richardDodd said:

There will not be a currency union with rUK after Scotland leaves..Why is this so difficult for people like Dair to understand

I think wee Eck said they would join the EU and take the Euro after independence and there was no bar to them doing so?

Continuing to use the pound without a formal currency union could prevent an independent Scotland from joining the EU, it has been claimed.

Former EU economics chief Olli Rehn said it would "simply not be possible" to combine a policy of sterlingisation with EU membership.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29043878

DecrepitJohnL

Financier said:

O/T

Pupils will have to score more highly to gain a "good pass" in their GCSEs, under changes to England's exams.

Candidates will have to obtain a Grade 5, equivalent to a low B or high C now, as grading switches to numbers nine to one in exams to be taken first in 2017.

The aim is to make standards comparable to top-performing countries such as Finland, Canada, and the Netherlands.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33139954

Education stories do not seem to have as much traction here as they used to. I'm not sure if that's because all the teachers have left or Michael Gove's SpAds and astroturfers have found alternative employment.

Tbh it is not really clear how changing the grades to numbers will raise standards, even if there is greater differentiation between grades (since a seven-point A-F scale is replaced by the nine points of 1-9).

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Do we have a date for D-Day?

6th June 1944?

Charles

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

Surely anyone with any money in Greece now has it either offshore or under the bed?

Sales of cars are up this year, as they are pretty much valued in Euros no matter what happens to the Greek currency. I guess the rich are also buying gold and diamonds for the same reason.

The reason why sales of cars are up this year is it is easy to move them out of the country in the event of capital controls...

Morris_Dancer

Good news [so good I forgot the date and didn't mention it before now]; Episode Six of Zodiac Eclipse is now up:
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-textbook-landing/

If you haven't read any (it'll be a 12 x 1,000 word story series, one episode per month) episodes to date are up here, the first at the bottom:
http://www.kraxon.com/category/zodiac-eclipse/

It's easily the best cyborg bounty hunter space pirate story I've ever written.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, you tinker, you

Plato

A novel idea re bouncer expertise, I think it's poorly presented and looks like thugs for thugs.

Education Secretary Nicky Morgan will today appoint a ‘behaviour tsar’ to stamp out classroom disruption caused by children playing on mobile phones and swinging on chairs.

Former Soho nightclub bouncer Tom Bennett will advise schools on dealing with ‘low-level’ poor behaviour.

In her first major speech since the election, Mrs Morgan will also announce a drive to improve the employability of school leavers by limiting the number of ‘soft’ subjects they can study.

An Ofsted study last year found that children could be losing up to an hour of learning a day because of low-level disruption – the equivalent of missing 38 school days a year. Mr Bennett spent eight years working in nightclubs in Soho, including as a bouncer – which he says provided ‘an obvious training ground in classroom management’.

He later trained as a religious studies and philosophy teacher, and has written a book on ‘behaviour solutions’ for schools.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3125673/Morgan-announce-former-nightclub-bouncer-school-behaviour-tsar-charged-stamping-low-level-disruption-caused-mobile-phones.html#ixzz3dCxFlSbM
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

JonCisBack

People are shamefully ignorant on all political matters. This issue might JUST be big enough to get people to listen for once? We can but hope

Still reckon it will be III

Financier

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Do we have a date for D-Day?

6th June 1944?

Nov 5th 2017

DecrepitJohnL

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

Surely anyone with any money in Greece now has it either offshore or under the bed?

Sales of cars are up this year, as they are pretty much valued in Euros no matter what happens to the Greek currency. I guess the rich are also buying gold and diamonds for the same reason.

German cars?

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, you tinker, you

Couldn't resist it!

Today's article in the DT suggests that we're not a long way from this coming to a head. There's an IMF payment due on 30th June which could be the trigger point for something to happen.

"Greece accuses Europe of plotting regime change as creditors draw up ultimatum
"The European Commission braces for a “state of emergency” in Greece, fearing social unrest and a break-down of basic supplies"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11676867/Greece-accuses-Europe-of-plotting-regime-change-as-creditors-draw-up-ultimatum.html

rcs1000

Financier said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33132591

This sets out the repayments due by Greece over the next three months.
M Hollande is getting very worried - could France be next in line?

No.

France's debt-to-GDP is the same as the UK, Spain and slightly less than the US (and a lot less than Italy's). It is roughly half the level of Greece's. Not only that, but according to Bloomberg, French debt-to-GDP peaked in June 2014, and had been falling - albeit modestly - since. France also has one of the lowest levels of household debt in the world (c. 60% of GDP) and has a relatively unindebted corporate sector.

That isn't to say that France doesn't have major problems (broken political system, high social charges, inflexible labour market, too high taxes, too low retirement age...), but unlike Greece it isn't simply "bust".

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

Why should Greece defaulting necessarily mean exiting the Euro? The assumption all round seems to be that it does, and if everyone assumes it does then that will indeed be the result. Even so, any number of US authorities have defaulted in the past without leaving the dollar zone.

snip

Even so, I do think we ought to consider the possibility of Greece defaulting within the Eurozone, not least because there's no mechanism for booting any country out or for a country to unilaterally withdraw, short of leaving the EU itself. One can argue that where there's a will there's a way but is there that will if there's an alternative? Were Greece to leave, the creditors may have to write off their loans; if Greece stays, there's a much better chance that a future government may do a deal to reinstate what Syriza has renounced.

Precisely. I can see Greece defaulting, but staying in the Euro. No-one - not the IMF, US, EU, or Greece itself - wants them to leave. Russia may be the exception.

A fudge will be found.

Defaulting within the Eurozone has its own problems, but are these worse than default and Grexit?

I don't think so. The EU and US are terrified of Grexit, despite what the Germans may blow off about occasionally in public.

Greece will stay.

I think so too. If Greece defaults then Greek banks will shortly fail, but what happens next? Either a new Drachma or Greece copes with a banking crash in other ways, with a cash economy or overseas banks buying up the bankrupt Greek banking assets at knockdown prices.

Not just the banking assets - this could be investor's chance to own stuff like the Acropolis, the islands of Corfu, Kos. Greece could get out of debt but it would have to pay the price.

My worry is that all this will lead to either civil war, further down the road, or to Greece falling under the spell of Putin. Greece was run by the generals earlier in my lifetime. Seems to me we are at an extremely dangerous point and most of the UK is just shrugging it off as someone else's business. I believe Chamberlain said something like - "a far away country of which we know little" before the war.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, they've been crying wolf for a while about the crisis actually reaching a climax.

On the other hand, the wolf did eventually turn up and eat the lying little sod who kept pretending he'd seen one.

Mr. 1000, useful stuff, though there's not only the economic impact but the political one to consider. Greece leaving the eurozone could concentrate minds in Brussels, and the UK. How Greece is doing when we vote could matter a lot.

E3 rambling: really surprised there's a FFVII remake. Xbox backwards compatibility is a great move for them. Mass Effect Andromeda (sadly, we'll not be able to be an alien) confirmed for Christmas 2016. And The Last Guardian finally got an outing.

Plato

OT This is fun - how good are you at spotting criminal suspects? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3125173/Are-super-recogniser-test-one-elite-group-people-rarely-forgets-face.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

I got 8/14.

Sandpit

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

Surely anyone with any money in Greece now has it either offshore or under the bed?

Sales of cars are up this year, as they are pretty much valued in Euros no matter what happens to the Greek currency. I guess the rich are also buying gold and diamonds for the same reason.

German cars?

Funny you should say that! Aren't luxury cars pretty much all either German or British made?

It would be interesting to see some polling in Germany about the EZ crisis. From the outside it looks as if they are doing well economically as a result of being undervalued in the Euro, but I'm not sure that the general public on the inside necessarily see it that way.

dr_spyn

@Rottenborough Greece was run by a Junta of Colonels...

FalseFlag

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

Surely anyone with any money in Greece now has it either offshore or under the bed?

Sales of cars are up this year, as they are pretty much valued in Euros no matter what happens to the Greek currency. I guess the rich are also buying gold and diamonds for the same reason.

You can't take your car to the supermarket and use it to buy groceries. Ditto jewellery. You can of course use it to leave Greece and I suspect many would.

The level of hardship caused to the Greek people by a default is, in my view, being spectacularly underestimated. The EU may well have another million refugees to deal with and many would try to come here.

Greece is a relatively closed economy. About three quarters of its GDP is domestic. Of the quarter that is not, most comes from tourism, which would benefit from devaluation. The Drachma would stabilise at fair value, capital will flow in and with currency risk gone the private sector will lend for the right price. The BRICS could provide help until a primary account surplus is achieved. Resumption of full trade with Russia and construction of the gas pipeline will help.

If Greece defaults on its official-sector debt, France and Germany stand to forfeit €160 billion. Spain and Italy lower, but similarly unaffordable amounts. It is not Greece that has the problem. The Americans are actively disliked in Greece, an Orthodox country with close ties to Serbia as well as Christians in the Middle East, only bribery and threats keep them in line, not unlike other European countries. I am not sure how much economic and political capital the US has left now.

Interesting theory that Greece and the Ukraine defaulting would have little effect. I expect we shall see, equity markets are relatively unimportant, debt markets are far more systemic.

Sandpit

Charles said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

who owns Greece's debt? The Chinese?

Robert is the expert on this but my understanding is that nearly all of it is owned by the ECB and the IMF externally and quite a lot of it is owned by Greek banks (who face complete ruin in the event of a default) internally. Everyone with any kind of sense bailed out a while ago.

Surely anyone with any money in Greece now has it either offshore or under the bed?

Sales of cars are up this year, as they are pretty much valued in Euros no matter what happens to the Greek currency. I guess the rich are also buying gold and diamonds for the same reason.

The reason why sales of cars are up this year is it is easy to move them out of the country in the event of capital controls...

Yes, turning cash and property into mobile and liquid assets with intrinsic value. Ironically the more this happens the more screwed are the banks, of course.

Pleased that my business is in the UK and Mid East, relatively unaffected directly by the EZ. This could get a lot worse before it gets any better.

Mortimer

Does anyone know of a good book on the introduction of capital controls in the 1914 banking crisis (I assume there were some)...

Or something like 'This time it is different' for capital controls?

rcs1000

The Greece negotiating strategy had four planks:

1. Rely on the fact that the rest of the Eurozone, and Germany is particular, is scared of Grexit, and will make major concessions to avoid it.

2. Build allies among the other debtor nations of Europe (specifically Spain, France, Portugal, and Italy) to make the creditors nations take notice.

3. Separate the IMF from the Eurozone, because the Eurozone was always going to give Greece a better deal.

4. If you are on the verge of a deal, always come back with "and just one more thing".

Of these, (2) fell away very quickly. The other PIIGS - who, to be fair, did take their medicine - are now in full recovery mode. Ireland grew my more than 4% last year. Spain will grow close to that this year. Portugal is running about a year behind Spain, and looks likely to top 2% growth this year. Simply put, the other debtor nations just weren't that interested in changing horses mid apocalypse.

The next to go was (3). Tsipiras strategy throughout was to tell the IMF to "fuck off", while trying to cosy up to the Eurozone heads of state. In one way this made sense - as the IMF was the hard ass - but it missed the fact that in large chunks of the Eurozone, a bail-out without IMF backing was politically impossible. Furthermore, it makes Grexit worse for Greece, as it would be done without the support of the IMF.

This left (1) and (4) still in play. And (4) had worked brilliantly well. There is absolutely no doubt that the Europeans kept making concessions on the "one last thing"... But it hasn't worked with the IMF, and now the IMF is standing firm, it's frustrating Tsipiras.

Germany in particular is still scared of (1). (The US is too, but for different reasons.) And that is why there may still be a deal. But the IMF has two conditions that the Greeks seem completely unwilling to budge one:

1. The pension age for civil servants has to rise. (As one German politician said to me, "I can't have my constituents working to 70 to pay for Greeks to retire at 55".)
2. There needs to be VAT reform (it used to be "VAT has to rise", but the IMF has modified this slightly to "there needs to be VAT reform").

Grexit looks likely, but not certain. I know the Germans thought they had a deal 10 days ago. And there's a lot of pressure on Legarde from the Americans. If there is a deal, I reckon it will be a phased increase in the Greek retirement age over the next decade, plus an extension of the number of goods over which top rate VAT is levied.

dr_spyn

@mortimer This had good reviews. Saving The City - Richard Roberts. http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199646548.do

Alanbrooke

Dair said:

Alanbrooke said:

Dair said:

richardDodd said:

There will not be a currency union with rUK after Scotland leaves..Why is this so difficult for people like Dair to understand

If you read my posts you would see that I agree with that. Scotland will use Sterlingisation.

And as a result of the rUK's failure to achieve Currency Union it will get zero contribution to its debt interest.

Even funnier.

You default on your debt share and launch a currency based on a declining commodity.

#McZimbabwe

More economic illiteracy from Brit Nats.

Scotland would use Sterlingisation, then, depending how beneficial that proved, either continue under Sterlingisation or move to their own currency (assuming that the Euro continues to struggle which is not guaranteed).

There are quite significant benefits in remaining under Sterlingisation. The only real downside is that Scotland would miss potentially significant growth through currency revaluations that a new currency would offer.

LOL

Eckonomics and Nicola McGabby

Bond_James_Bond

Am I the only one who can't really see Greece leaving?

They import basically everything, so if they left the euro they'd lose what, 50% of their purchasing power overnight? I don't know how long you can last on a 50% pay cut, but I'd be toast in weeks.

Something like 70% of the Greeks want to stay in the euro, and Yerp doesn't want anyone leaving and starting a trend. So I struggle to identify the actor who'll declare that Greece has to go. The debts are unpayable by Greece, but not so huge in the EU scheme of things. Given the political value attaching to the project, surely we're just going to see a managed Greek default.

Being perpetually on the brink of national default is not exactly a new situation nor is it one that has to be resolved rapidly or at all. There are African countries that have been bankrupt for years but simply soldiered on with perpetual reschedulings.

Mortimer

dr_spyn said:

@mortimer This had good reviews. Saving The City - Richard Roberts. http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199646548.do

Thanks Dr, ordered. TTL for Amazon Prime!

Scott_P

Alanbrooke said:

LOL

Eckonomics and Nicola McGabby

Zimbabwe have just officially embraced dollarization. Maybe Swinney is hoping to pick up some tips...

Bond_James_Bond

Incidentally, Scenario V: EU agrees something, In wins, then EU welshes on the something.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dair, and having no lender of last resort leading to the financial sector fleeing to the safe harbour of England.

And having no control over your interest rates.

It's mental. I get wanting independence. Wanting independence and to keep the currency is crackers.