Conservatism, if summed up in a few words, is the minimisation of the risk of uncontrolled social change..
A very strange way to define Conservatism, if I may say so, Mr Herdson. I see it rather as the progressve concentration of power and wealth in the hands of the few. Of course, this has to be disguised and perhaps that is where your "minimisation of risk" comes in.
So the Soviet Union was really Conservative?
I remember reading a book from the early 80's from a lefty who visited the USSR, among his many interviews was with a leading soviet professor of sociology in which he described Rock and Roll music as corrupting the soviet youth and only classical music and jazz was acceptable by the communist party. He later went on moaning why his cousin who was a farmer was given a house, a car and other goodies by the soviet government, while he and other scientists were not given any.
So the Soviet Union was in some parts as Conservative as any radical christian but replacing God with Lenin and the Bible with the Communist Manifesto.
Actually I believe the Japanese started it in 1937.
Don't be so Euro-centric.
Breaking the habit of a lifetime, I'm going to agree with Dair. WWII started either in 1937, when Japan invaded China, or in 1941, when they bombed Hawaii (and so brought about the political and military events that created a single global war). Either way, it began in the East.
Impossible some smarty pants earlier swore it was Poland.
Croydon was in Surrey when I lived in St Claire's Road in the mid 80s. I think the postcode was CR9 2NS. Or that could be the postcode of the Lloyds Bank I belonged to!
150-200 member unicameral UK Parliament, dealing with defence, foreign affairs and macroeconomic policy (maybe 5-10% of government spending). Explicit sovereignty vested in the UK Parliament, as now. 3-400 member unicameral English Parliament, based in York or Manchester or somewhere and dealing with everything else Scottish, Welsh and NI Parliaments as now, also dealing with everything else.
Disputes between them adjudicated by the Supreme Court.
We'd go from being one of the most centralised democractic countries to one of the least.
The idea of having a national parliament based in anywhere other than London is a cantankerous and obscurantist abomination.
How about Croydon?
Croydon is in London. Croydon ist London! London aber ist Croydon wie Croydon London ist! London Hey Ho!
I think you will find that you were not actually owned by the Bank even if it felt like that.
Plato: "Given the STORY vote rose in 2015, it looks like unwind on that segment".
aschamberlain said:
" The 2011 gains were driven by the Lib Dem collapse."
You are both indulging (but go ahead, I am just being kind to you) in incredible self delusion.
Plato. What matters most to any sentient analyst is the percentage vote polled by the Tories, not the number of votes. I have pointed out more than once that the Tory vote % in Scotland at GE 2015 was the worst at a GE since 1865.
aschamberlain. Did you hold the number of seats in Scotland you expected to? How about defeating Alex Salmond? On Holyrood 2011, subsequent investigation proved that an apparently stable SLAB vote % disguised significant voters moving from Lib Dem to Labour substituting numerically for SLAB voters moving to SNP.
Sadly for the LibDems, every other party fed on your dying remains, although I don't mind admitting the SNP had, appropriately, the Lion's share.
This chart shows just how bad things have got for SLAB and SLID, can the Tories seek to capitalise in 2016? I'm sure David Cameron can manufacture a few policy climb downs following "pressure" from Ruth:
I would prefer that chart to show percentages of votes as that would be more accurate in portraying the scotish political evolution.
Never the less, the SNP dominance came in steps.
Step 1: Tory collapse towards the SNP during the late 80's early 90's. Step 2: LD collapse towards the SNP after the coalition. Step 3: Labour collapse towards the SNP first at local level during the Blair years and then at Westminster level after the referendum.
Basically now everyone in scotland, who is not a party member of the opposition parties, votes by instinct for the SNP.
The only other example is of course Quebec of the sudden disappearance of first the conservatives and then the liberal parties in favour of local nationalist parties first at local and then suddenly at national level :
Right now I think the opposition in scotland should focus exclusively on the local Holyrood level, like the Liberals in Quebec who managed to recover in the local assembly even if they are still wiped out on the national level in the province.
Some cracking historical tweets about from the time that Unionists thought Murphy was the Sun King incarnate.
David Maddox @DavidPBMaddox Dec 13 Looking at the hyperbolic, frenzied tweets from the cybernats tonight clearly the snp are scared sh**less of @jimmurphymp
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson Dec 13 Great news about Jim Murphy. Blairites always were good at winning elections. Now let the restoration begin!
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Dec 13 Nationalists trying to pretend election of @jimmurphymp is a disaster for Labour. It isn't. Good day for Labour, good day for the Union.
Meanwhile Iain Gray to be caretaker leader for SLAB. I'm guessing everyone's hyperbole buttons will be well muted.
Croydon was in Surrey when I lived in St Claire's Road in the mid 80s. I think the postcode was CR9 2NS. Or that could be the postcode of the Lloyds Bank I belonged to!
No it wasn't! Croydon has been in London since 1964. Croydon has not been in Surrey since 1964. If you lived in Croydon in the 1980s, you lived in London and you did not live in Surrey.
Some cracking historical tweets about from the time that Unionists thought Murphy was the Sun King incarnate.
David Maddox @DavidPBMaddox Dec 13 Looking at the hyperbolic, frenzied tweets from the cybernats tonight clearly the snp are scared sh**less of @jimmurphymp
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson Dec 13 Great news about Jim Murphy. Blairites always were good at winning elections. Now let the restoration begin!
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Dec 13 Nationalists trying to pretend election of @jimmurphymp is a disaster for Labour. It isn't. Good day for Labour, good day for the Union.
Meanwhile Iain Gray to be caretaker leader for SLAB. I'm guessing everyone's hyperbole buttons will be well muted.
I was one of the few non-SNP's who correctly said that Murphy was a bad fit and would be a disaster. I don't know if scottish Labour would get the right leader, but in my opinion it has to be a lefty Glasgow MSP. Or the opposite of what Murphy said: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33117462
"Mr Murphy added: "While commitment to the party will always be crucial, strong candidates can have other attributes other than time served. "We want business people, charity workers, NHS staff and many others who support Labour to stand for Labour - even if up until now they never felt able to join Labour." "
In order to be elected in scotland you need to be a rabble rousing socialist, not a businessman.
This is in danger of becoming a bit of a private party. Can I make the debate a little more focussed on DH's post and a little less whimsical in nature.
The "Scotland issue" is win-win for the Tories; they obviously know it but will play it down as I think it is still the Unionist party in spirit as well as name. Factoring in boundary changes as well, Scottish political turmoil (inside or outside the UK) is very positive for the Tories. Given this and the chastened and directionless Labour party, it is wishful thinking that English votes can be turned anytime soon. The SNP likes to represent that it has clout but in truth it has none; Labour will not want the SNP to use Westminster to consolidate its position in Scotland's 2016 election.
DH nods towards English resentment of the Scottish moans about "UK democracy" disadvantaging them. It seems to me that it is almost universally felt in England that precisely the opposite is true. I don't think many English give two hoots what happens to Scotland and that number gets nearer to one hoot with every passing day.
There is always the possibility that Gideon will get overly smart in his dealings with the SNP but I think he has such a large margin for error that that's unlikely. The SNP is left with too many hostages to fortune which Andrew Neil also picks at constantly.
Plato: "Given the STORY vote rose in 2015, it looks like unwind on that segment".
aschamberlain said:
" The 2011 gains were driven by the Lib Dem collapse."
You are both indulging (but go ahead, I am just being kind to you) in incredible self delusion.
Plato. What matters most to any sentient analyst is the percentage vote polled by the Tories, not the number of votes. I have pointed out more than once that the Tory vote % in Scotland at GE 2015 was the worst at a GE since 1865.
aschamberlain. Did you hold the number of seats in Scotland you expected to? How about defeating Alex Salmond? On Holyrood 2011, subsequent investigation proved that an apparently stable SLAB vote % disguised significant voters moving from Lib Dem to Labour substituting numerically for SLAB voters moving to SNP.
Sadly for the LibDems, every other party fed on your dying remains, although I don't mind admitting the SNP had, appropriately, the Lion's share.
On the Tory figures - In LD constituencies previously resistant Conservative voters were switching in large numbers to try and stop the SNP. The fact that the Tory vote was down isn't necessarily a sign that the party has permanently lost support. I suspect the number of Scots who might consider voting Tory is probably up a bit following the referendum.
On the SLDs - The likes of East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West would have been held if there had been a few less Labour to SNP switchers. Gordon always looked vulnerable, even pre-referendum. I think my points about the effect of Labour and the Lib Dems getting their acts together in Westminster still stand.
Also, the Lib Dems aren't dying - membership is rapidly heading towards Cleggmania levels!
Actually I believe the Japanese started it in 1937.
Don't be so Euro-centric.
Breaking the habit of a lifetime, I'm going to agree with Dair. WWII started either in 1937, when Japan invaded China, or in 1941, when they bombed Hawaii (and so brought about the political and military events that created a single global war). Either way, it began in the East.
Actually I believe the Japanese started it in 1937.
Don't be so Euro-centric.
Breaking the habit of a lifetime, I'm going to agree with Dair. WWII started either in 1937, when Japan invaded China, or in 1941, when they bombed Hawaii (and so brought about the political and military events that created a single global war). Either way, it began in the East.
Actually I believe the Japanese started it in 1937.
Don't be so Euro-centric.
Breaking the habit of a lifetime, I'm going to agree with Dair. WWII started either in 1937, when Japan invaded China, or in 1941, when they bombed Hawaii (and so brought about the political and military events that created a single global war). Either way, it began in the East.
Comments
Never the less, the SNP dominance came in steps.
Step 1: Tory collapse towards the SNP during the late 80's early 90's.
Step 2: LD collapse towards the SNP after the coalition.
Step 3: Labour collapse towards the SNP first at local level during the Blair years and then at Westminster level after the referendum.
Basically now everyone in scotland, who is not a party member of the opposition parties, votes by instinct for the SNP.
The only other example is of course Quebec of the sudden disappearance of first the conservatives and then the liberal parties in favour of local nationalist parties first at local and then suddenly at national level :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Quebec_general_elections
http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.gr/p/federal-elections.html
Right now I think the opposition in scotland should focus exclusively on the local Holyrood level, like the Liberals in Quebec who managed to recover in the local assembly even if they are still wiped out on the national level in the province.
David Maddox @DavidPBMaddox Dec 13
Looking at the hyperbolic, frenzied tweets from the cybernats tonight clearly the snp are scared sh**less of @jimmurphymp
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson Dec 13
Great news about Jim Murphy. Blairites always were good at winning elections. Now let the restoration begin!
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 Dec 13
Nationalists trying to pretend election of @jimmurphymp is a disaster for Labour. It isn't. Good day for Labour, good day for the Union.
Meanwhile Iain Gray to be caretaker leader for SLAB. I'm guessing everyone's hyperbole buttons will be well muted.
I don't know if scottish Labour would get the right leader, but in my opinion it has to be a lefty Glasgow MSP.
Or the opposite of what Murphy said:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33117462
"Mr Murphy added: "While commitment to the party will always be crucial, strong candidates can have other attributes other than time served.
"We want business people, charity workers, NHS staff and many others who support Labour to stand for Labour - even if up until now they never felt able to join Labour." "
In order to be elected in scotland you need to be a rabble rousing socialist, not a businessman.
The "Scotland issue" is win-win for the Tories; they obviously know it but will play it down as I think it is still the Unionist party in spirit as well as name. Factoring in boundary changes as well, Scottish political turmoil (inside or outside the UK) is very positive for the Tories. Given this and the chastened and directionless Labour party, it is wishful thinking that English votes can be turned anytime soon. The SNP likes to represent that it has clout but in truth it has none; Labour will not want the SNP to use Westminster to consolidate its position in Scotland's 2016 election.
DH nods towards English resentment of the Scottish moans about "UK democracy" disadvantaging them. It seems to me that it is almost universally felt in England that precisely the opposite is true. I don't think many English give two hoots what happens to Scotland and that number gets nearer to one hoot with every passing day.
There is always the possibility that Gideon will get overly smart in his dealings with the SNP but I think he has such a large margin for error that that's unlikely. The SNP is left with too many hostages to fortune which Andrew Neil also picks at constantly.
These truly are interesting times.
On the SLDs - The likes of East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West would have been held if there had been a few less Labour to SNP switchers. Gordon always looked vulnerable, even pre-referendum. I think my points about the effect of Labour and the Lib Dems getting their acts together in Westminster still stand.
Also, the Lib Dems aren't dying - membership is rapidly heading towards Cleggmania levels!
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Вторая_мировая_война
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Patriotic_War_(term)