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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

Salford is the epitome of a Labour heartland electing a Labour majority even in the most dire electoral positions for Labour (clearly demonstrated in 2008 when Labour’s overall majority fell to 12) but which since the general election has (as many other Labour areas have done) become a virtual one party state.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,775
    FPT for AveryLP
    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @AveryLP

    As the site's resident optimist, I'd like to point out that Germany under the redoubtable Mrs Merkel has:

    1. Unemployment of 5.3%, which is pretty much a 30 year low
    2. A record trade surplus
    3. A current account only marginally below its all time record
    4. A balanced budget (just)
    5. Much lower consumer debt (60% of GDP against our 200%)

    Now, I'm no Osborne hater, but it's hard to say that Merkel's Germany is doing less well than the UK.

    I wouldn't want her contingent liabilities though, Robert.

    And we are beating the Germans on GDP growth if not in football.

    Just think where Germany would be today if George were Chancellor.

    And for that matter, where Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and Ireland might have been with their own currencies back.

    Two things:

    Firstly, look at the chart of German GDP-per-capita at PPP - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita-ppp - and tell me that Germans aren't doing very nicely even on that metric.

    Secondly, I'm assuming you're talking about Target2 imbalances when you talk about 'contingent liabilities'. Even there, the direction is clearly improving. Germany has gone from a 750bn balance to 600bn, with Spain in particular improving on the other side of the equation. (See: http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/Data.htm)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2013
    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.

    we don't appear to be finding it so.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.

    we don't appear to be finding it so.
    We have an exchange rate that is appropriate for a semi-buggered economy.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.

    we don't appear to be finding it so.
    We have an exchange rate that is appropriate for a semi-buggered economy.
    yup and it's lower than it's been for ages and still we ain't getting much oomph.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.

    we don't appear to be finding it so.
    We have an exchange rate that is appropriate for a semi-buggered economy.
    yup and it's lower than it's been for ages and still we ain't getting much oomph.
    Partly because we need to rebuild the manufacturing base (although it's not as bad as people make out), partly because we need to find new customers with money, and partly because it is trading at a fair level. If the DM still existed the currency would be significantly stronger than that implied by the EUR cross rate
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,775
    Sterling has gone from $2.10 to $1.54, so we should have had a big boost to our export numbers... Going to the excellent Trading Economics web site we see that our exports did recover in the immediate aftermath of the GFC. But have not done that well since (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports).

    (You can't really claim that the Euro is artificially depressed when it has moved much less than Sterling against the dollar.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good evening, everyone.

    Thanks to Mr. Hayfield for his locals piece.

    FPT: Dr. Prasannan, indeed, but it's waned in Greece over the last couple of millennia.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.

    we don't appear to be finding it so.
    We have an exchange rate that is appropriate for a semi-buggered economy.
    yup and it's lower than it's been for ages and still we ain't getting much oomph.
    Partly because we need to rebuild the manufacturing base (although it's not as bad as people make out), partly because we need to find new customers with money, and partly because it is trading at a fair level. If the DM still existed the currency would be significantly stronger than that implied by the EUR cross rate
    Your point on germany and the Euro is correct and helps our teutonic cousins. But as you have pointed out it helps them because they have a bigger manufacturing base than us; unless we keep the rate low for some considerable time to allow an expansion of manufacturing ( it's easy to shut it much harder to rebuild ) then I wonder if there is much point in devaluation in a mostly service economy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,775
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.

    we don't appear to be finding it so.
    We have an exchange rate that is appropriate for a semi-buggered economy.
    yup and it's lower than it's been for ages and still we ain't getting much oomph.
    Partly because we need to rebuild the manufacturing base (although it's not as bad as people make out), partly because we need to find new customers with money, and partly because it is trading at a fair level. If the DM still existed the currency would be significantly stronger than that implied by the EUR cross rate
    I agree with all your points (and there's no doubt the old DM would be much, much stronger than the Euro). However, you also need to accept not just Germany, but even much derided Spain has been a greater export powerhouse than the UK in the last five years.

    (Contrary to popular belief - The Telegraph, and some on here - Spain's balance of trade change has come mostly from a large increase in exports, rather than a decrease in imports, which have been largely flat since the GFC.)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT (I didn't notice the thread change)
    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @AveryLP

    As the site's resident optimist, I'd like to point out that Germany under the redoubtable Mrs Merkel has:

    1. Unemployment of 5.3%, which is pretty much a 30 year low
    2. A record trade surplus
    3. A current account only marginally below its all time record
    4. A balanced budget (just)
    5. Much lower consumer debt (60% of GDP against our 200%)

    Now, I'm no Osborne hater, but it's hard to say that Merkel's Germany is doing less well than the UK.

    I wouldn't want her contingent liabilities though, Robert.

    And we are beating the Germans on GDP growth if not in football.

    Just think where Germany would be today if George were Chancellor.

    And for that matter, where Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and Ireland might have been with their own currencies back.

    Two things:

    Firstly, look at the chart of German GDP-per-capita at PPP - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita-ppp - and tell me that Germans aren't doing very nicely even on that metric.

    Secondly, I'm assuming you're talking about Target2 imbalances when you talk about 'contingent liabilities'. Even there, the direction is clearly improving. Germany has gone from a 750bn balance to 600bn, with Spain in particular improving on the other side of the equation. (See: http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/Data.htm)
    Two further things:

    1. I concede on GDP per capita but just look at what Gordon did to the UK's performance.
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita
    Now look at the improvement since Jeffrey took over and on a rate of improvement basis it more than competes with Angela's wizardry. Still we are only at just less than three quarters of Germany's level.

    Time for you to revive the derivatives market, Robert, and people will start thinking the battle with Germany is all over again.

    2. If Deutsche Bank bought the entire Spanish banking sector, Germany might start to flatline on that graph.

    I was using 'contingent liabilities' in a more general sense of Germany underwriting the Eurozone, though the specific measure you referred me to does appear to be a worked metric along these lines.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    A couple more points on MK -
    The Tories have 19 seats as 1has defected to UKIP
    We have all outs next year on new boundaries, so hard to read too much into tonight's result; this is a long-standing Con:Labmarginal but should be fertile UKIP territory
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Repeat Good News

    I know we had the headline figures for May Retail Sales this morning, but it is worth posting the full summary table. Not a single negative figure on any of the key metrics.

    No wonder BenM has taken a day off.

    All Retailing, May 2013 (seasonally adj. % change)      

    Most recent Most recent Most recent Most recent
    month on a 3 months month on 3 months
    year earlier on a year previous on previous
    earlier month 3 months

    Value 3.1 1.5 2.1 1.1
    Volume 1.9 0.7 2.1 0.7
    Val. ex. fuel 3.7 2.2 2.3 1.3
    Vol. ex. fuel 2.1 1.1 2.1 0.6
    Would you be so kind as to do a comparison with the industrial production numbers and to extend the comparison to ten years previous.

    Then explain the differences - the increase in the national debt will be of use here.

    And as a summary discuss why our ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption is considered a good thing ?
    I am far too lazy to do all that work, ar.

    Especially when a section of today's ONS Bulletin comes close to answering your basic questions.

    Both the quantity and the value of retail sales grew steadily between the start of 2004 and the beginning of 2008. The quantity of retail sales grew by 11.4% between 2004 Q1 and 2008 Q1, while the value of retail sales increased by 14.5%. Over this period, the chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 15.8%.

    Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2013 (the most recent quarter for which data are available), the volume of retail sales has grown by just 1.2%. Over the same period, the value of retail sales has risen by 12.8%, which highlights the extent to which prices have risen since the onset of the economic downturn. The chained volume measure of GDP in the first quarter of 2013 remains 2.6% below the peak in 2008 Q1.


    So you can hardly claim that current growth in retail sales is due to "an ever increasing addiction to debt fueled consumption", especially in a period that has seen households deleverage.

    You would be on better grounds blaming inflation but then you would have to strip out the effects of administrative and regulatory price rises (household energy & transport), fiscal measures (VAT rise) and the effect of currency devaluation (30% against the Renmimbi over the period) to understand its true effect.
    If you hadn't noticed the volume of retail sales is at its highest ever meanwhile the economy as a whole is still smaller than it was before the recession.

    Thus consumption has increased as a proportion of economic activity, this increase being funded by a doubling in public debt during the last five years, a total of somewhere over £600bn and still rapidly growing.

    As the addiction to debt fueled consumption seems to have begun before the recession, the last five years have thus been an increased addiction.

    That there has been a reduction in household debt levels (though only as a proportion not as an actual value) is good - of course this is the opposite to what Osborne wanted. However these still remain excessively high and the reduction has been more than offset by the increase in public debt which has effectively replaced it.

    Now that we've got the basic economics sorted would you be so kind as to send for GloucesterOldSpot, we may get more sense from him.
    GloucesterOldSpot replies:

    1. Retail Sales volumes may be at their "highest level ever" but for all the hyperbole they have remained flat since their 2008 peak.

    2. Retail Sales values have increased by nigh on 13% but a very large proportion of this will be a substitute for tax (e.g. railfare increases to move investment from central govt books to private sector). Maintaining current consumption levels is critical to maintaining government revenues and continuing to reduce the current account deficit..

    3. Industrial output is greatly affected by Oil and Gas extraction which accounted for 2.7 of GVA in 2004 and has now reduced by over half, declining 15% per annum in 2010-12. The depletion of North Sea reserves is beyond the control of any government although much work has been put into slowing the short term rate of decline in extraction. Expanding the rest of the industrial sector first has to overcome the unavoidable declines in mining and extraction. (A similar handicap is imposed on balance pf payments)..

    4. Manufacturing output is recovering patchily with core sectors (car manfacturing, aerospace, pharmaceuticals) performing well. Growth in manufacturing is export dependent and the recession in the Eurozone which accounts for near 50% of the UK's manufacturing exports is a major constraint on growth, Expanding exports to non European growth countries has been successful with high levels of growth from small bases.

    5. UK Services which account for around 75% of the economy have already grown to higher levels than their pre-recession peaks and exports of services are continuing to grow.

    6. As we are likely to see in part tomorrow and fully in the next OBR EFO report due in late July, the deficit has been reduced at a far higher rate this calendar year than was predicted by the OBR in March. My estimate is that the deficit will have been reduced at a monthy rate of around £2 billion per month already this year.

    None of this is perfect, ar, but almost all is better than any of our main EU competitor countries. You can moan at the slow rate of fiscal consolidation (Osborne has aimed for and achieved the IMF 'optimal' rate of 1% per annum) and at the high residual levels of debt, but what is needed from you are recommended alternative measures which would be acceptable to the electorate, feasible to implement and suitable to the structure and nature of the UK economy.

    Basically, if you can do better than Osborne, tell us how.

    I think it's been pretty well established that just about anyone can do better than Osborne.
    Don't shoot the messenger, Mr. Brooke.

    I was just passing on GloucesterOldSpot's response to the Lincolnshire Misanthrope.

    But then I see you are following my precedent by passiing on the comments of GOS's cousin, MickP0rk.



    Oh really Mr Pole just think of how much better the UK would be doing if we replaced Osborne with Wolfgang Schaeuble or one of Plato's cats for that matter. Mark up another fail for Oxford, why do we keep that place going ?
    Mr. Brooke, I come in peace and offer a sacrifice.

    If we merged Oxfordshire and Warwickshire and made Warwick University a college of OU, then wouldn't everyone but Prof. Davey be happy?

    You must understand I am a conciliator at heart.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    @Avery FPT

    LOL a much appreciated proposal anything that upsets the Prof must be intrinsically of value.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,775
    AveryLP said:

    FPT (I didn't notice the thread change)

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @AveryLP

    As the site's resident optimist, I'd like to point out that Germany under the redoubtable Mrs Merkel has:

    1. Unemployment of 5.3%, which is pretty much a 30 year low
    2. A record trade surplus
    3. A current account only marginally below its all time record
    4. A balanced budget (just)
    5. Much lower consumer debt (60% of GDP against our 200%)

    Now, I'm no Osborne hater, but it's hard to say that Merkel's Germany is doing less well than the UK.

    I wouldn't want her contingent liabilities though, Robert.

    And we are beating the Germans on GDP growth if not in football.

    Just think where Germany would be today if George were Chancellor.

    And for that matter, where Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and Ireland might have been with their own currencies back.

    Two things:

    Firstly, look at the chart of German GDP-per-capita at PPP - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita-ppp - and tell me that Germans aren't doing very nicely even on that metric.

    Secondly, I'm assuming you're talking about Target2 imbalances when you talk about 'contingent liabilities'. Even there, the direction is clearly improving. Germany has gone from a 750bn balance to 600bn, with Spain in particular improving on the other side of the equation. (See: http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/Data.htm)
    Two further things:

    1. I concede on GDP per capita but just look at what Gordon did to the UK's performance.
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita
    Now look at the improvement since Jeffrey took over and on a rate of improvement basis it more than competes with Angela's wizardry. Still we are only at just less than three quarters of Germany's level.

    Time for you to revive the derivatives market, Robert, and people will start thinking the battle with Germany is all over again.

    2. If Deutsche Bank bought the entire Spanish banking sector, Germany might start to flatline on that graph.

    I was using 'contingent liabilities' in a more general sense of Germany underwriting the Eurozone, though the specific measure you referred me to does appear to be a worked metric along these lines.
    Yes, Target2 is a very interesting measure, because it shows the level of capital flight from the periphery to Germany. (Although one has to be a little careful with this measure - not least because a large number of Italians have taken their money out of Unicredit in Italy, to deposit it with Germany's fourth largest bank, Hypovereinsbank, not realising that the latter is a subsidiary of the former...) That Target2 imbalances have improved post-Cyprus is very intriguing, and certainly not what I (or many others) predicted.

    The big way the imbalances get sorted is that Germans use their savings to buy apartments in Southern Spain. In this way, the debt associated with the property moves from Banco Popular to Deutsche Bank. This is already happening, although I would certainly agree there is a lot to go.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TGOHF said:
    The DT seem to have become less hostile to HMG of late.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Interesting piece on LabourList:
    http://labourlist.org/2013/06/is-this-the-real-face-of-the-tory-party-the-tory-talibans-alternative-queens-speech/

    Here are the three suggestions from some Conservatives that have riled the article's author:
    the banning of the burka
    abolishing the Department of Energy and Climate Change
    bringing back the death penalty

    I actually agree with him on the death penalty (ie we shouldn't have it), but I do think being pro-death penalty is also a legitimate prespective.

    I wouldn't abolish the department (although I'd axe the Climate Change nonsense) because we need proper energy planning. [I'm aware that Labour and to a lesser extent the Coalition have massively cocked that up despite the department's existence].

    Hmm. I have mixed views on the burka. I wouldn't be distressed if it were banned. Not sure if I'd vote that way if I had a vote to cast. I don't buy the 'it's religious' argument. A religious belief is an opinion, no more. But I do believe people generally have the freedom to decide how to dress. On the other hand, it does obscure one's identity.

    However, the key point is that this is how the left works: by demonising contrary opinions to the metropolitan consensus as backwards. There's no need to debate if you've already painted the opposition as holding unacceptable opinions.

    I did like this aspect though: "...ban people from wearing religious clothing...." which is an interesting expression of outrage from a man who subsequently uses the slogan "Tory Taliban".
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Harry's articles are great. If you read this Harry this is many a known lurkers favorite article of the week.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    RCS

    Isn't that effectively the market doing what it should do? If the Euro does survive and re-balance then surely the euro economies will be truly integrated.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    IOS said:

    RCS

    Isn't that effectively the market doing what it should do? If the Euro does survive and re-balance then surely the euro economies will be truly integrated.

    whats left of them
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.

    we don't appear to be finding it so.
    We have an exchange rate that is appropriate for a semi-buggered economy.
    yup and it's lower than it's been for ages and still we ain't getting much oomph.
    Partly because we need to rebuild the manufacturing base (although it's not as bad as people make out), partly because we need to find new customers with money, and partly because it is trading at a fair level. If the DM still existed the currency would be significantly stronger than that implied by the EUR cross rate
    Your point on germany and the Euro is correct and helps our teutonic cousins. But as you have pointed out it helps them because they have a bigger manufacturing base than us; unless we keep the rate low for some considerable time to allow an expansion of manufacturing ( it's easy to shut it much harder to rebuild ) then I wonder if there is much point in devaluation in a mostly service economy.
    There's not much benefit for locally consumed services certainly, and where you are importing commodities it is a negative.

    Exported services do benefit, but it's not a long-term strategy for success
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.

    we don't appear to be finding it so.
    We have an exchange rate that is appropriate for a semi-buggered economy.
    yup and it's lower than it's been for ages and still we ain't getting much oomph.
    Partly because we need to rebuild the manufacturing base (although it's not as bad as people make out), partly because we need to find new customers with money, and partly because it is trading at a fair level. If the DM still existed the currency would be significantly stronger than that implied by the EUR cross rate
    I agree with all your points (and there's no doubt the old DM would be much, much stronger than the Euro). However, you also need to accept not just Germany, but even much derided Spain has been a greater export powerhouse than the UK in the last five years.

    (Contrary to popular belief - The Telegraph, and some on here - Spain's balance of trade change has come mostly from a large increase in exports, rather than a decrease in imports, which have been largely flat since the GFC.)
    I'm not an expert on Spain, but what's the composition of the exports? I could see them being a relatively low cost workforce which could benefit industries such as textiles?

    They'll also benefit from invisibles resulting from the flow of income from overseas acquisitions they built up, in part due to favourable tax treatment of intangible amortisation
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    FPT @another_richard

    The government should have told the truth instead of the whole faux austerity pretence.

    The "we're all in it together" meme should have been fleshed out with the government explaining that personal consumption had been allowed to reach unsustainable levels and that for the next generation living standards would for most people either be stagnant or in decline. Blame could have placed on Labour for this and explanations made about an unbalanced economy, insufficient infrastructure investment, the effects of globalisation and the shift in economic power to Asia.

    Issues such as the decline in economic and social mobility, sustainable living and the importance of quality of life over mere living standards could have been emphasised.

    Instead the unsustainable levels of consumption have been treated as the minimum level allowable and government borrowing used to maintain them.

    With the result that most people think we've undergone austerity and that it will soon be time to increase spending again. when in reality we haven't and spending has continued to increase.

    Not only is the economy in a worse state to accept the inevitable changes but the British people are in a worse state psychologically to accept them as well.

    Now at some point economic reality will be imposed on Britain and we will suffer far more than we needed because our political 'leaders' chose to preference their own narrow tactical political needs over the long term good of the country.

    Instead we had George Osborne basing economic strategy upon an increase in household borrowing.


    I agree with much of this, ar. The communications of the Coalition Government's economic policies have been sub par.

    Much of that (and you will have to agree not to let Mr. Brooke know I have said this) is due to an incoming Chancellor not knowing what to do when running the Treasury. All the preparation of policies in opposition and all his or her economic training or achievements will not prepare for office. Walk across the threshold of No 11 and the Treasury mandarins take over, at least for the first half of any parliamentary term.

    This is both good and bad. The good is that it enables a PR Officer of the Cairngorms to perform superlatively as Chief Secretary and, conversely, it would clip the wings of any qualified or eminent economist as Chancellor.

    The bad is that the politicians who find themselves behind the door probably don't know what it is they are really doing until it happens. And then they are asked to communicate to the public what is happening and where we are going. A task made more difficult by external events and influences beyond control of the office. That is why most chancellors are rated on their performance on the economy rather than their ability to sell policy..

    Osborne's strengths are his ability to simplify policy and stubbornly stick to key goals. He is not so good at selling policies and performance to the electorate except in a partisan and adversarial context. Ironically the best economic evangelist in the Coalition is Vince Cable but he would never have matched the brutal simplicity of Osborne's policy implementation.

    So we all live and learn. And Osborne has matured in office. His star is on the rise in conjunction with the economy.

    If I disagree with anything in your post it is your advocacy of extreme medication. Economies are almost organic and properly nurtured are generally self-healing. Gradualism is all. It is just getting sustained policy direction right over long cycles that is difficult to achieve. Give Osborne ten years and he will get much closer to where you want to be than any substitute. It is not his innate skills that will count though: it will be his experience, which is fast becoming worth the weight of all the gold sold by Gordon.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    Lots of things are easier when you have an artificially depressed exchange rate.

    we don't appear to be finding it so.
    We have an exchange rate that is appropriate for a semi-buggered economy.
    yup and it's lower than it's been for ages and still we ain't getting much oomph.
    Partly because we need to rebuild the manufacturing base (although it's not as bad as people make out), partly because we need to find new customers with money, and partly because it is trading at a fair level. If the DM still existed the currency would be significantly stronger than that implied by the EUR cross rate
    Your point on germany and the Euro is correct and helps our teutonic cousins. But as you have pointed out it helps them because they have a bigger manufacturing base than us; unless we keep the rate low for some considerable time to allow an expansion of manufacturing ( it's easy to shut it much harder to rebuild ) then I wonder if there is much point in devaluation in a mostly service economy.
    There's not much benefit for locally consumed services certainly, and where you are importing commodities it is a negative.

    Exported services do benefit, but it's not a long-term strategy for success
    I understand the argument on services exports, my doubts arise on is there enough to export especially with finance in the doldrums and probably a decade away from previous levels of business.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,775
    Charles said:

    I'm not an expert on Spain, but what's the composition of the exports? I could see them being a relatively low cost workforce which could benefit industries such as textiles?

    They'll also benefit from invisibles resulting from the flow of income from overseas acquisitions they built up, in part due to favourable tax treatment of intangible amortisation

    According to Index Mundi (http://www.indexmundi.com/trade/exports/?country=es), the biggest sector of Spanish exports is motor vehicles, with machinery second, textiles third, and chemicals fourth. Not would I would have expected to be honest.

    Reading this (http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/28/business/spain-auto-soares), it would appear that Ford, Renault and VW are all investing in boosting Spanish auto production right now, given excellent facilities and cheap labour.

    You live and learn...

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    UKIP 1st or 2nd in Salford and 2nd in Milton Keynes?

    (depending on what kind of LD voters they were in 2010)

    (and if they're standing?)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Completely agree with you Tim. Paterson was good and a decision that should have been made 20 years ago.

    The green nutters who've fought GM have a lot to answer for.
    tim said:

    I'd like to praise Owen Paterson today.
    Best performance by a coalition minister on the radio this morning for ages, the anti-GM lobby are as scientifically based as the anti MMR screw ups and I thought he was brilliant.
    As was his speech later

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    MrJones said:

    UKIP 1st or 2nd in Salford and 2nd in Milton Keynes?

    (depending on what kind of LD voters they were in 2010)

    (and if they're standing?)

    This is a local election for local people! There's nothing for you here!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    tim said:

    I'd like to praise Owen Paterson today.
    Best performance by a coalition minister on the radio this morning for ages, the anti-GM lobby are as scientifically based as the anti MMR screw ups and I thought he was brilliant.
    As was his speech later

    I heard him on R5. It was such a nice change (for either party to be fair) to have a politician who was interested in the facts rather than how people feel and was willing to stand by the science.

    How many hundreds of millions have to eat GMOs for how many years before we are willing to consider if it is safe? R5 also had a Scottish farmer on who explained that what they were seeking to do was to accelerate the introduction of old spieces traits back into potatoes to help them become more blight and weather resistent massively reducing the need for chemical spraying.

    This is not frankenstein science and the fact that there is even a debate, so called, shows how alarmist and ignorant most of our media are.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    tim said:

    I'd like to praise Owen Paterson today.
    Best performance by a coalition minister on the radio this morning for ages, the anti-GM lobby are as scientifically based as the anti MMR screw ups and I thought he was brilliant.
    As was his speech later

    Well what do you know? I'm in the same boat as tim for a change. The Greens are a mean mess, and will retard any recoverey thats going by their stupid policies.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    @AveryLP

    I think you have touched upon a greatly underated issue there Avery. After 13 years of Labour rule ministerial experience (Ken Clarke apart) was incredibly rare in this government. It would have been astonishing if they had immediately mastered the whitehall machine.

    I think the steepness of the learning curve for such an inexperienced administration is one of the reasons Cameron has been so reluctant to have reshuffles.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    MrJones said:

    UKIP 1st or 2nd in Salford and 2nd in Milton Keynes?

    (depending on what kind of LD voters they were in 2010)

    (and if they're standing?)

    yes, they are standing in both of them. In Salford there are 100 candidates. Well, actually just 9 but it's a quite long ballot paper.

    They are also standing in Edinburgh and Fife.

    Who would you expect to fall in third place in MK?
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 140
    Obviously the pro GM lobby choose to ignore the evidence in the USA of the appalling impact of GM on biodiversity (BBC documentary 2011 among other places)

    GM has the look of one of those things that in 20-30 years time people will say "Why on earth did we do that?"

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The Aberdeen Donside betting market has been pretty dead. Just £1,854 in bets have been matched. SNP now 1.01.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited June 2013

    MrJones said:

    UKIP 1st or 2nd in Salford and 2nd in Milton Keynes?

    (depending on what kind of LD voters they were in 2010)

    (and if they're standing?)

    yes, they are standing in both of them. In Salford there are 100 candidates. Well, actually just 9 but it's a quite long ballot paper.

    They are also standing in Edinburgh and Fife.

    Who would you expect to fall in third place in MK?
    Actually, looking at it again the LD vote seems to have gone to the Greens so maybe not so Ukippy after all. I think i may retract that one and make it 3rd.

    (It's all about (imo) guessing the socio-economic make-up by seeing if there was a big LD vote in 2010 that didn't (edit: all) switch to Labour or Green after 2010.)

    "They are also standing in Edinburgh and Fife."

    That'll be interesting to see.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Donside declaration expected at roughly 2.00am
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    tim said:

    I'd like to praise Owen Paterson today.
    Best performance by a coalition minister on the radio this morning for ages, the anti-GM lobby are as scientifically based as the anti MMR screw ups and I thought he was brilliant.
    As was his speech later

    I heard him on R5. It was such a nice change (for either party to be fair) to have a politician who was interested in the facts rather than how people feel and was willing to stand by the science.

    How many hundreds of millions have to eat GMOs for how many years before we are willing to consider if it is safe? R5 also had a Scottish farmer on who explained that what they were seeking to do was to accelerate the introduction of old spieces traits back into potatoes to help them become more blight and weather resistent massively reducing the need for chemical spraying.

    This is not frankenstein science and the fact that there is even a debate, so called, shows how alarmist and ignorant most of our media are.


    How many people have to eat it?
    Well 500 million kids had MMR and one fraudulent study of a dozen backed by a politically motivated press campaign negated that.
    Hopefully one of the major consequences of the MMR scandal will be that a GM discussion will now be informed more by the science than the scares.
    But it was refreshing to hear a minister totally on top of his brief and confident enough to use the science to back it up.
    Case Studies: A hard look at GM crops
    http://www.nature.com/news/case-studies-a-hard-look-at-gm-crops-1.12907
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    The Aberdeen Donside betting market has been pretty dead. Just £1,854 in bets have been matched. SNP now 1.01.

    All the real interest has been in how well the Labour candidate would do in 2nd place. no-one has seriously suggested anything other than an SNP hold.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2013
    The Labour candidate in Donside is a bit out of his depth. He car crashed on Day 1 of the campaign.

    The SNP will save Aberdeen schools and everything else from Labour run council cuts.

    The UKIP chap sent the election address to the dead MSP's family by mistake and this apparently proves how out of touch with Scotland they are.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    tim said:

    I'd like to praise Owen Paterson today.
    Best performance by a coalition minister on the radio this morning for ages, the anti-GM lobby are as scientifically based as the anti MMR screw ups and I thought he was brilliant.
    As was his speech later

    Agree with you wholeheartedly. He was lucid, knew what he was talking about, stood his ground and made an intelligent, well-argued case. I listened to him and felt that I had learnt something and that he was more likely than not to make the right decision.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    tim said:

    @Sunil

    "GM cotton has driven farmers to suicide: False
    During an interview in March, Vandana Shiva, an environmental and feminist activist from India, repeated an alarming statistic: “270,000 Indian farmers have committed suicide since Monsanto entered the Indian seed market,” she said. “It’s a genocide.”

    The claim, based on an increase in total suicide rates across the country in the late 1990s, has become an oft-repeated story of corporate exploitation since Monsanto began selling GM seed in India in 2002."

    That myth gets repeated all over the place.

    On the other hand:
    "GM crops have bred superweeds: True"

    "Transgenes spread to wild crops in Mexico: Unknown"
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    @Sunil_Prasannan - new weeds are part of the give-and-take of anything like this. But GM crops can also be engineered to withstand a wider range of conditions and to require less fertiliser. Even if herbicide-resistance were discounted, they'd still be immensely useful.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    The Boris coiffure is going a bit combover.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    Front page of The Mirror tomorrow is claiming Nigel Farage set up an offshore tax avoidance scheme (but never used it)

    I saw that but thought it was old news. Must have just assumed he'd done it.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Front page of The Mirror tomorrow is claiming Nigel Farage set up an offshore tax avoidance scheme (but never used it)

    Was it in a Scottish bank?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    Front page of The Mirror tomorrow is claiming Nigel Farage set up an offshore tax avoidance scheme (but never used it)

    https://mobile.twitter.com/suttonnick/status/347831390861139968/photo/1
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    tim said:

    Front page of The Mirror tomorrow is claiming Nigel Farage set up an offshore tax avoidance scheme (but never used it)

    https://mobile.twitter.com/suttonnick/status/347831390861139968/photo/1
    Odd that a Labour supporting tabloid should seek to attack Nigel Farage.

    I thought UKIP was only a threat to the Tories.

    Very odd.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    tim said:

    Carola said:

    tim said:

    Front page of The Mirror tomorrow is claiming Nigel Farage set up an offshore tax avoidance scheme (but never used it)



    I saw that but thought it was old news. Must have just assumed he'd done it.

    Doesn't every South East golf club bore set up a tax avoidance scheme and shag an immigrant pole dancer yet to be put off by Pringle knitwear?
    I thought that was the reason no good bands ever came out of there.
    The Jam
    The Kinks
    Blur
    The Rolling Stones

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    isam said:

    tim said:

    Carola said:

    tim said:

    Front page of The Mirror tomorrow is claiming Nigel Farage set up an offshore tax avoidance scheme (but never used it)



    I saw that but thought it was old news. Must have just assumed he'd done it.

    Doesn't every South East golf club bore set up a tax avoidance scheme and shag an immigrant pole dancer yet to be put off by Pringle knitwear?
    I thought that was the reason no good bands ever came out of there.
    The Jam
    The Kinks
    Blur
    The Rolling Stones

    Depeche Mode!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Perhaps OGH can give us a local perspective on why this is such a bad thing? It sounds rather positive to me.

    So how to smash this system? The model can be found in a Bedford secondary located in one of the nation’s most deprived wards – yet its reputation is such that it steals pupils from nearby private schools. Not that it’s colonised by the rich: a fifth of its intake are poor enough to qualify for free school meals. The children of the wealthy and less fortunate sit together in identical uniforms, knowing little about each other’s circumstances and caring less. The Bedford Free School ought to be a pin-up for anyone who cares about social cohesion. Yet this week, the Labour Party made clear it would strangle this experiment at birth.

    Stephen Twigg, the shadow education secretary, didn’t mention the Bedford Free School by name, but he didn’t need to. It was set up by Mark Lehain, a former teacher, in the teeth of opposition from the council, which ran seven other schools of varying quality. There is no need for an eighth, the council said, as some of these schools still have vacancies. But Mr Lehain took a different view: parents should decide if a new school was needed. He has now filled all 200 of his places, leaving his furious rivals to nurse more “surplus” spaces than ever.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10132323/The-Tories-are-fighting-for-the-people-Labour-has-abandoned.html
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2013
    Salford

    Lab 785 UKIP 401 Con 260 Green 80 BNP 74 Ind 64 LD 58 Ind 15
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Boris disappoints: He actually said, on air, that he believes that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. Perplexing and totally weird.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    MikeK said:

    Boris disappoints: He actually said, on air, that he believes that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. Perplexing and totally weird.

    They just had an election, Dinner Jacket is no longer in charge.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    Salford

    Lab 785 UKIP 401 Con 260 Green 80 BNP 74 Ind 64 LD 58 Ind 15

    POLDWAS!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @BoltonFMNews
    NEWS: Labour have won the Horwich by-election. With 322 votes; UKIP with 224; Lib Dem with 103; and Con with 74.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    Boris disappoints: He actually said, on air, that he believes that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. Perplexing and totally weird.

    They just had an election, Dinner Jacket is no longer in charge.
    Whats that got to do with the fact that the pursuit of a nuclear bomb is continuing in Iran?
This discussion has been closed.