Plato The centre ground is surely what most voters believe, that means Labour must move right on immigration, welfare and Europe and tax cuts for the middle and lower incomes, but can keep higher taxes for the rich, remain socially liberal and also does not need to do a great deal to embrace free schools and academies or private sector involvement in the NHS, cutting overseas aid to pay for defence would also be a vote friendly policy
I must have quoted that 50 times on here. But even then I saw "smashed" as high teens at worst.
I still think Clexit might have helped...
Even Robert, who was the most pessimistic PBer on Lib Dem chances saw them in the teens.
To think he lost his Lib Dems 11-20 bet on the DOWNSIDE
I think every comment I made in the two weeks before the elections was "4-1 on LibDems 11-20 BARGAIN OF THE YEAR FILL YOUR BOOTS." Fortunately I had a small bet on 10 or fewer at 16-1.
Still, I was gutted they didn't get three more seats.
I also posted that their seats would ultimately be a function of their national vote share, and I had 7 seats at 7%, and 11 seats at 8%. So, I was three too optimistic on their seats (given their vote share).
My biggest error was that I assumed there would be more Con->LD tactical voting in LD-Labour marginals. The Conservatives getting 16% in Cambridge was a real shocker, for example: I expected them to be on 12% or so, with lots of tactical voting for Huppert. Likewise, I thought that he Tories would be struggling to hold their deposit in Southwark and Old Bermondsey.
When I was getting reliable reports that Cheltenham looked like a loss for the LibDems, then under 20 looked nailed on. My competition entry was for 17 LibDems. But less than 11? That really required you to take a leap. And some.
That said, mathematics dictated that if they only got the 7% the polls had been saying for months, disaster had to happen. You can't do special pleading with mathematics....
It is surprising, given that several Tories have said they did know which way the wind was blowing, that very little of this leaked into the betting markets (or the media, even). A lot of us were betting on Cameron=PM out of instinct but there were apparently people who had more than instinct to go on. Did some of those people just keep it to themselves and make a lot of money, or are they being disingenuous when they say there was plenty of internal data to say that the Tories would win?
I put £50 on a constituency at 11/4 for a Con hold. Canvassing data showed Cons maintaining their vote at 2010 levels with very mild improvement. Something I pointed out on here several times. What I could not have guessed was Labour getting so little.
HARRIS, Kathleen Margaret Labour Party 614 HEATH, Alan David Green Party 82 HOGSTON, Sally Anne UK Independence Party (UKIP) 370 JELLEY, Ian Frederick Conservative Party Candidate 771 JONES, Malcolm Edward Labour Party 623 JONES, Stephen Christopher Green Party 119 MILLS, Alan John Labour Party 951 Elected REEVES, Robert James Green Party 89 SUMPTER, Karl David Conservative Party Candidate 853 Elected TALBOT, Margaret Elizabeth Conservative Party Candidate 777 Elected
Rather a good result for Labour there, matching our 2011 score. Following the theme that in future we should ignore polls and focus on local election results, clearly we're poised to win in 2020...
Mr Angus Robertson, on behalf of the Scottish National Party, has tabled a lengthy reasoned amendment to the order for the second reading of the Scotland Bill, to be debated on Monday. He is engaged in dishonesty of a type particular to the Scottish Nationalists. On the one hand, were the House of Commons to agree to his amendment, the Bill would fall, and could not be reintroduced in this session. On the other hand, the amendment states " [t]hat the Bill will require substantial amendment as it moves forward".
That said, mathematics dictated that if they only got the 7% the polls had been saying for months, disaster had to happen. You can't do special pleading with mathematics....
Yes, but how were punters supposed to know in advance that they should believe the polls in Scotland, and believe the polls as regards the LibDems, but not believe them as regards the Con/Lab difference?
or are they being disingenuous when they say there was plenty of internal data to say that the Tories would win?
You never know if the internal data is correct till the event though.
^^^^^^ This!!
I come across a lot info that showed through canvassing results that Cons should be doing at least as well as last time. But it was the polls that completely threw me. I could not understand how a canvassing team doing the same thing, in the same way, in the same places could be so far out. It was *clear* from the canvassing what was happening.
I work with some very good Greek Doctors. Greece's loss is our gain. Movement is made a lot easier within the EU for Doctors as all qualifications are recognised. It is far harder to employ from outside because there is not reciprocality with India, USA, and other countries on postgraduate qualifications or even primary medical degree.
(They have all moved as much money as they can out of Greece too, sad to hear their stories of back home)
There were 5 clues given by various PBers which pointed to EdM not winning and the Cons doing very well.
1. DC always best PM. 2. DC & GO always outranking the two Eds on the economy 3. Increasing satisfaction with the coalition as time went on. 4. More 2010 LDs were giving a VI for the Cons as 2015 progressed. 5. Over 30% had not noticed any effect of the 'cuts' and about 15% DNK
As these 5 factors were against the run of the polling VI, they were discarded, but were mentioned quite regularly on PB but not all in one comment.
I mentioned the other day that we might expect other roller coasters to be shut down if it turned out to be a computer problem. This afternoon, Merlin, Alton Towers owners, announced that three rides at their other parks in the UK are being closed for safety reasons "for the foreseeable future"
This might just be them having realise there are flaws in their staff training, maintenance or other systems. It'll be more interesting if parks operated by other companies, or foreign rides, are closed.
Plato.. the roof of the Sultans main palace covers an area of five acres..a big gaff I hope you have the Indian ones.. and the SS Prinsendam..plus the Orient Express...and hopefully Penang...all shot so long ago..and I am still at it..got two hours of Drama for the BBC in July.
5. Over 30% had not noticed any effect of the 'cuts' and about 15% DNK
I remember the BBC running around Birmingham City Centre desperately trying to find some people in a vox pox that they have been had noticed the terrible cuts and knew lots of people affected by the horrific actions of the government.
The best they could find was somebody saying their mate is a lawyer and he lost his job with the council, but he had a better job now. Not exactly going to get a lot of sympathy that, lawyer gets the boot from council job and now has an even sweeter deal.
The problem is surely the nouveau rich that have no feel for the required tastes/ability to fit in? That's just SO awkward.
A relative won the pools and claimed they inherited it. Golly, that was just wince-makingly awful hob-nobbing.
I wouldn't know. I'm not rich, so I'd quite like to be nouveau rich just to see what a mess I could make of it
Then again, even if I was rich, I probably wouldn't go to the sort of thing that posh people go to anyway. Glyndebourne? Uh. The Opera? No thanks. London clubs? Only if I can do the clubbing.
I'd be more likely (family notwithstanding) to go on a *really* long walk. I did contemplate the coastline of Europe at one time, starting in Scandinavia and going round to Italy, then back up the Danube and Rhine.
I guess that'd make me silly rather than posh. ;-)
Plato.. the roof of the Sultans main palace covers an area of five acres..a big gaff I hope you have the Indian ones.. and the SS Prinsendam..plus the Orient Express...and hopefully Penang...all shot so long ago..and I am still at it..got two hours of Drama for the BBC in July.
HARRIS, Kathleen Margaret Labour Party 614 HEATH, Alan David Green Party 82 HOGSTON, Sally Anne UK Independence Party (UKIP) 370 JELLEY, Ian Frederick Conservative Party Candidate 771 JONES, Malcolm Edward Labour Party 623 JONES, Stephen Christopher Green Party 119 MILLS, Alan John Labour Party 951 Elected REEVES, Robert James Green Party 89 SUMPTER, Karl David Conservative Party Candidate 853 Elected TALBOT, Margaret Elizabeth Conservative Party Candidate 777 Elected
Rather a good result for Labour there, matching our 2011 score. Following the theme that in future we should ignore polls and focus on local election results, clearly we're poised to win in 2020...
Mr Mills seems to have a very strong personal vote!
I was at college with some hideous Sloanes in the 80s. A more superficial bunch I can't imagine.
I loathe opera and Glyndebourne [it was up the road from me] - but that's for their choice in music, not the penguin suits. It was really rather fun to see visitors on the train on the way back from London all dolled up for their night out in frocks and bow ties.
The problem is surely the nouveau rich that have no feel for the required tastes/ability to fit in? That's just SO awkward.
A relative won the pools and claimed they inherited it. Golly, that was just wince-makingly awful hob-nobbing.
I wouldn't know. I'm not rich, so I'd quite like to be nouveau rich just to see what a mess I could make of it
Then again, even if I was rich, I probably wouldn't go to the sort of thing that posh people go to anyway. Glyndebourne? Uh. The Opera? No thanks. London clubs? Only if I can do the clubbing.
I'd be more likely (family notwithstanding) to go on a *really* long walk. I did contemplate the coastline of Europe at one time, starting in Scandinavia and going round to Italy, then back up the Danube and Rhine.
I guess that'd make me silly rather than posh. ;-)
There were 5 clues given by various PBers which pointed to EdM not winning and the Cons doing very well.
1. DC always best PM. 2. DC & GO always outranking the two Eds on the economy 3. Increasing satisfaction with the coalition as time went on. 4. More 2010 LDs were giving a VI for the Cons as 2015 progressed. 5. Over 30% had not noticed any effect of the 'cuts' and about 15% DNK
As these 5 factors were against the run of the polling VI, they were discarded, but were mentioned quite regularly on PB but not all in one comment.
Your points boil down to "voter satisfaction" don't they? I don't think there was any clue from PB. On the night I'd roped back my positions.
The poshness test was flawed, too much emphasis on vintage plonk and wine cellars, I felt it penalised we teetotallers with libraries designed by Soane and stable blocks by Adams.
That German video is telling, and the Out campaign should flood social media with it.
The particular focus on immigration and claims we aren't doing enough, coming as we have net migration of over 300,000, could really sting people into shifting to Out.
The poshness test was flawed, too much emphasis on vintage plonk and wine cellars, I felt it penalised we teetotallers with libraries designed by Soane and stable blocks by Adams.
That German video is telling, and the Out campaign should flood social media with it.
The particular focus on immigration and claims we aren't doing enough, coming as we have net migration of over 300,000, could really sting people into shifting to Out.
All it proves is that tedious right-on lefty comedy can be found in the most unlikely of countries.
That German video is telling, and the Out campaign should flood social media with it.
The particular focus on immigration and claims we aren't doing enough, coming as we have net migration of over 300,000, could really sting people into shifting to Out.
All it proves is that tedious right-on lefty comedy can be found in the most unlikely of countries.
The poshness test was flawed, too much emphasis on vintage plonk and wine cellars, I felt it penalised we teetotallers with libraries designed by Soane and stable blocks by Adams.
The poshness test was flawed, too much emphasis on vintage plonk and wine cellars, I felt it penalised we teetotallers with libraries designed by Soane and stable blocks by Adams.
Plato.. the roof of the Sultans main palace covers an area of five acres..a big gaff I hope you have the Indian ones.. and the SS Prinsendam..plus the Orient Express...and hopefully Penang...all shot so long ago..and I am still at it..got two hours of Drama for the BBC in July.
That German video is telling, and the Out campaign should flood social media with it.
The particular focus on immigration and claims we aren't doing enough, coming as we have net migration of over 300,000, could really sting people into shifting to Out.
All it proves is that tedious right-on lefty comedy can be found in the most unlikely of countries.
Mind you German right wing comedy doesn't bear thinking about. Just who is the German Bernard Manning?
"Human mortality is, of course, no secret. And yet I suspect that a lot of people consider it to be something that happens to other people. Both of my parents, faced with terminal diagnoses, expressed genuine bewilderment. “You’ll be around. And you’ll be around. But I won’t?” my father said to my mother and me. My mother’s disbelief was less abstract: “I never thought this would happen to me.”"
FU True, but a surplus was due by 2015. As more police officers are sacked, deeper welfare cuts bite, defence is cut further, libraries and lesire centres are shut more often, there is less public transport and social care provision gets overburdened more will begin to feel the impact, even education and schools funding will rise less than inflation. Osborne cannot afford to stretch cuts further beyond his target date of 2018/19
A couple have been convicted of a £1million fraud which included claiming for work helping deaf people while they were actually on holiday in Dubai.
Angela Poole, 47, and George Taylor, 54, funded a lavish lifestyle by over-charging the taxpayer by £400,000 for work as sign language interpreters for deaf people in work.
The government today condemned the ‘appalling’ scale of the fraud, which included Poole billing the taxpayer for the equivalent of 21 hours a day.
The couple from Derbyshire were also caught out trying to avoid almost £700,000 in tax owed to Revenue and Customs.
5. Over 30% had not noticed any effect of the 'cuts' and about 15% DNK
I remember the BBC running around Birmingham City Centre desperately trying to find some people in a vox pox that they have been had noticed the terrible cuts and knew lots of people affected by the horrific actions of the government.
The best they could find was somebody saying their mate is a lawyer and he lost his job with the council, but he had a better job now. Not exactly going to get a lot of sympathy that, lawyer gets the boot from council job and now has an even sweeter deal.
Radio 5Live had a vox pop in North Warwickshire a few days before the election. The floating voters were heading towards the Tories, giving them credit for an improving economy.
Sunil Depends, on areas like welfare , immigration, the EU and tax cuts for lower and middle income earners Labour was seen as too leftwing. On other areas like the 50% top tax rate, opposition to bombing Assad, support for gay marriage, and opposition to outsourcing NHS funding to the private sector and more academies and free schools Labour's policies were not that far from public opinion as a whole. It is only the former Labour really needs to shift on, indeed if Labour promised to renationalise the railways and gas and electricity industries even some Tories would back them
Sunil Depends, on areas like welfare , immigration, the EU and tax cuts for lower and middle income earners Labour was seen as too leftwing. On other areas like the 50% top tax rate, opposition to bombing Assad, support for gay marriage, and opposition to outsourcing NHS funding to the private sector and more academies and free schools Labour's policies were not that far from public opinion as a whole. It is only the former Labour really needs to shift on, indeed if Labour promised to renationalise the railways and gas and electricity industries even some Tories would back them
Yes, you are right. The general election result clearly showed that Labour were not that far from public opinion at all. And keep taking the pills.
"Nowadays, women are more likely than men to vote Labour. It used to be the other way round. For most of the post-1945 era, women tended to be more Tory than men. Detailed analysis from our post-election survey shows that something else is going on. Labour’s advantage is specifically among women under 50. Labour enjoyed a six-point lead among them—while the Tories led by five points among men under 50. Among people over 50, the Tories have a clear lead among both men (by 12 points) and women (by 15 points). In essence, among people born before the mid-1960s, the traditional gender gap persists, while among women born since then, the new gender gap takes over."
It isn't the gender that does it, it's the public sector bias relating to the gender. Vast hordes of the public sector are female.
GeoffM Yes, the election result showed that voters thought Labour would spend too much on welfare, let in too many immigrants, be too pro EU and put up most peoples taxes, precisely as I said. However, while Labour needs to shift on those areas, it does not need to reverse its position on the 50% top tax rate, which polls show voters want restored for now, nor on more private involvement in the NHS, which polls show voters oppose, they could even promise to renationalise the railways which polls show even many Tories support
Given the Tories won by 8% nationally these statistics perhaps not too surprising, Labour still lead with young voters, the public sector and low income voters, though a closer gap. Perhaps surprising to see many public sector voters or voters on welfare voting Tory at all, Turkeys voting for Christmas?
GeoffM What you are arguing is as illogical as saying because the Tories campaigned against the Euro and for immigration controls in 2001 those were the reasons for their defeat rather then other issues and they needed to become pro Euro and take a liberal approach to immigration to win again
@NCPoliticsUK: Lab lead over Con only 4pts among under 30s, only 3pts among public sector workers. Con won all education levels and all incomes excl <£20k</p>
The meme that everyone in the public sector votes Labour and everyone in the private sector votes Conservative has always seemed absurd.
Yes - but like so much else - we were slapped down on here for suggesting that not all teachers would vote Labour. Apparently they all hated Gove so much....or some such rubbish.
It is worth remembering that the largest teaching union - the NUT - is one of a small number of prominent unions that are effectively controlled by far left splinter groups.
In the case of the NUT there has been huge SWP influence since the 1970s.
Of the others, the PCS And Fire Brigades Union have similar influencers. There is a reason why these Unions gaveblined up to support various varieties of student demo.
gaveblinev. To pointlessly pontificate on a subject which is not relevant to your membership
Learn something new every day. Way did you find this? I looked in six different dictionaries, including OED, Cambridge and Websters, but none of them list it.
Or did you make up a definition in the spot? If so, bravo. Very convincing.
Let's just say that I couldn't find it in a dictionary either! ;-)
@NCPoliticsUK: Lab lead over Con only 4pts among under 30s, only 3pts among public sector workers. Con won all education levels and all incomes excl <£20k</p>
The meme that everyone in the public sector votes Labour and everyone in the private sector votes Conservative has always seemed absurd.
Yes - but like so much else - we were slapped down on here for suggesting that not all teachers would vote Labour. Apparently they all hated Gove so much....or some such rubbish.
It is worth remembering that the largest teaching union - the NUT - is one of a small number of prominent unions that are effectively controlled by far left splinter groups.
In the case of the NUT there has been huge SWP influence since the 1970s.
Of the others, the PCS And Fire Brigades Union have similar influencers. There is a reason why these Unions gaveblined up to support various varieties of student demo.
gaveblinev. To pointlessly pontificate on a subject which is not relevant to your membership
Learn something new every day. Way did you find this? I looked in six different dictionaries, including OED, Cambridge and Websters, but none of them list it.
Or did you make up a definition in the spot? If so, bravo. Very convincing.
Let's just say that I couldn't find it in a dictionary either! ;-)
Comments
Meanwhile if they do pay they will be paying for the next 40 years or so
http://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/606523869210550272/photo/1
That said, mathematics dictated that if they only got the 7% the polls had been saying for months, disaster had to happen. You can't do special pleading with mathematics....
twitter.com/PresidencyZA/status/606824686434021377
This!!
I come across a lot info that showed through canvassing results that Cons should be doing at least as well as last time. But it was the polls that completely threw me. I could not understand how a canvassing team doing the same thing, in the same way, in the same places could be so far out. It was *clear* from the canvassing what was happening.
A relative won the pools and claimed they inherited it. Golly, that was just wince-makingly awful hob-nobbing.
(They have all moved as much money as they can out of Greece too, sad to hear their stories of back home)
1. DC always best PM.
2. DC & GO always outranking the two Eds on the economy
3. Increasing satisfaction with the coalition as time went on.
4. More 2010 LDs were giving a VI for the Cons as 2015 progressed.
5. Over 30% had not noticed any effect of the 'cuts' and about 15% DNK
As these 5 factors were against the run of the polling VI, they were discarded, but were mentioned quite regularly on PB but not all in one comment.
This might just be them having realise there are flaws in their staff training, maintenance or other systems. It'll be more interesting if parks operated by other companies, or foreign rides, are closed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-33025024
I hope you have the Indian ones.. and the SS Prinsendam..plus the Orient Express...and hopefully Penang...all shot so long ago..and I am still at it..got two hours of Drama for the BBC in July.
https://thevelvetrocket.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/mausoleum-mustafa-kemal-ataturk-12.jpg
The best they could find was somebody saying their mate is a lawyer and he lost his job with the council, but he had a better job now. Not exactly going to get a lot of sympathy that, lawyer gets the boot from council job and now has an even sweeter deal.
Then again, even if I was rich, I probably wouldn't go to the sort of thing that posh people go to anyway. Glyndebourne? Uh. The Opera? No thanks. London clubs? Only if I can do the clubbing.
I'd be more likely (family notwithstanding) to go on a *really* long walk. I did contemplate the coastline of Europe at one time, starting in Scandinavia and going round to Italy, then back up the Danube and Rhine.
I guess that'd make me silly rather than posh. ;-)
EDIT And Rajasthan Abode of the Kings.
If the Axelrod’s of this world think there will be a big triumph, they stick around to claim ownership of it.
Once he checked out of the UK early, it was obvious he thought Miliband would lose.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3112019/Former-chef-reveals-extravagant-tastes-Kim-Jong-led-North-Korean-dictator-s-massive-weight-gain.html
I loathe opera and Glyndebourne [it was up the road from me] - but that's for their choice in music, not the penguin suits. It was really rather fun to see visitors on the train on the way back from London all dolled up for their night out in frocks and bow ties.
As usual the predicted heatwave has failed to materialise:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
That German video is telling, and the Out campaign should flood social media with it.
The particular focus on immigration and claims we aren't doing enough, coming as we
have net migration of over 300,000, could really sting people into shifting to Out.
I'll get my coat.
(checks if Morris Dancer and TSE aren't about...)
"Human mortality is, of course, no secret. And yet I suspect that a lot of people consider it to be something that happens to other people. Both of my parents, faced with terminal diagnoses, expressed genuine bewilderment. “You’ll be around. And you’ll be around. But I won’t?” my father said to my mother and me. My mother’s disbelief was less abstract: “I never thought this would happen to me.”"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/05/we-all-have-to-face-up-to-death-deborah-orr
The signs were there....
The GB figures were Con 37.8% Lab 31.2%
game poker