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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : June 4th 2015

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  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 53s53 seconds ago
    Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
    CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
    UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
    LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
    LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

    Looks like Tories sweeping all before them at the moment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
    CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
    UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
    LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
    LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

    Can we call Peak Kipper yet?

    Melting away like sun in the summer.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
    CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
    UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
    LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
    LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

    Can we call Peak Kipper yet?

    Can we call the Lib Dems exempt yet?
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    MikeK said:

    According to the BBC Kendal has now got the required 35 MP nominations.
    Good. Now they need to ensure that Corbyn gets enough MPs to be nominated. The party will benefit from having right, left and centre involved in the leadership race.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited June 2015
    MTimT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chuck Blazer and Jack Warner are certainly providing marvellous entertainment at the moment.

    Blatter is still doing his bit -tweeting today with a pic of him at his desk that he is working on FIFA reforms..

    What are the odds he'll make it to December?
    Does Brazil have an extradition treaty with the USA? That might be an attractive place for some of these FIFA officials to decamp to.
    With Brazil, it used to be that you had to be a Brazilian citizen, or married to one, to avoid deportation. Guess Sepp would have to take a local wife.
    Sepp has a good looking girlfriend - he has a choice to make - her or exile in Brazil.

    He'd fit in well there - Brazil has its own football corruption issues.

    http://heavy.com/sports/2015/06/linda-barras-sepp-blatter-girlfriend-wife-photos-pictures/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    At the general election Mary Creagh’s vote dropped slightly from 17,454 to 17,301.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I found Creagh very immature in the last few minutes of Question Time tonight. Giggling and pointing and laughing at Norman Lamb and shouting over him about how people weren't voting Lib Dem. Looked like very childish schaudenfreude for a candidate to be LOTO, especially given Labour didn't exactly do well either.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Tim_B said:

    MTimT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chuck Blazer and Jack Warner are certainly providing marvellous entertainment at the moment.

    Blatter is still doing his bit -tweeting today with a pic of him at his desk that he is working on FIFA reforms..

    What are the odds he'll make it to December?
    Does Brazil have an extradition treaty with the USA? That might be an attractive place for some of these FIFA officials to decamp to.
    With Brazil, it used to be that you had to be a Brazilian citizen, or married to one, to avoid deportation. Guess Sepp would have to take a local wife.
    Sepp has a good looking girlfriend - he has a choice to make - her or exile in Brazil.

    He'd fit in well there - Brazil has its own football corruption issues.

    http://heavy.com/sports/2015/06/linda-barras-sepp-blatter-girlfriend-wife-photos-pictures/
    He probably put the Viagra on expenses.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speaking of old men and viagra....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lcc62nrl9Y
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
    CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
    UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
    LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
    LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

    Can we call Peak Kipper yet?

    Just don't tell the nutjobs over at the Speccy CoffeeHouse.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 53s53 seconds ago
    Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
    CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
    UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
    LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
    LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

    Looks like Tories sweeping all before them at the moment.

    That's a surge of SNP proportions.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Huhne the convicted liar now on.

    How do they think insulting the intelligence of decent people is going to help?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited June 2015
    Rick Perry announced for POTUS today - did anyone notice?

    Trump might announce June 16th. Oh dear
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    26.0% swing UKIP=>Con in Wisbech South
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I found Creagh very immature in the last few minutes of Question Time tonight. Giggling and pointing and laughing at Norman Lamb and shouting over him about how people weren't voting Lib Dem. Looked like very childish schaudenfreude for a candidate to be LOTO, especially given Labour didn't exactly do well either.

    She is not going to make the shortlist.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    NeilVW said:

    26.0% swing UKIP=>Con in Wisbech South

    Dirty sleazy kippers on the slide...
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    Rick Perry announced for POTUS today - did anyone notice?

    Trump might announce June 16th. Oh dear

    Think we're heading for two dozen ...
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Portillo pissing himself laughing at the finest brain in British politics.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    Rick Perry announced for POTUS today - did anyone notice?

    Trump might announce June 16th. Oh dear

    Think we're heading for two dozen ...
    Going to be interesting to see which 10 make the first debate August 6th.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    Rick Perry announced for POTUS today - did anyone notice?

    Trump might announce June 16th. Oh dear

    Think we're heading for two dozen ...
    I'm beginning to think we can have too much of a good thing, in terms of crazy and entertaining no hope candidates (and the crazy candidates who do have a hope in winning nevertheless).

    Let's hope the weaker Democratic candidates stay in the race as long as possible, we've already seen how these Republican ones go in recent times, we need the Democratic alternative.

    Good night all
    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 53s53 seconds ago
    Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
    CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
    UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
    LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
    LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

    Looks like Tories sweeping all before them at the moment.

    That's a surge of SNP proportions.
    It keeps getting said, correctly, that the Tories did not win because they are beloved but because they were not feared enough, Labour was distrusted and so on and so forth with a whole range of factors. But in southern England there's plenty of places which if they don't love the Tories, they are sending mixed signals given their electoral strength.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    I found Creagh very immature in the last few minutes of Question Time tonight. Giggling and pointing and laughing at Norman Lamb and shouting over him about how people weren't voting Lib Dem. Looked like very childish schaudenfreude for a candidate to be LOTO, especially given Labour didn't exactly do well either.

    She is not going to make the shortlist.
    Who will she back?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    alex. said:

    If (when) Greece is forced out of the Euro, will the Euro weaken or strengthen? Should i buy my holiday money now or later?

    It depends where you are going. Greece? Be prepared for massive inflation if you are. I'm not sure the cash points will be working in Greece much longer.
    Take your money in cash Euros if going to Greece, the machines are being emptied and restraunts do not like credit cards etc. It is turning into a cash economy in tourist areas. Steer clear of the cities.

    If Greece leaves the Euro it will be chaos and the probable fall of Syrizia. Who will replace them? Who knows! Not even the Greeks that I work with have a clue, but possibly the far right.
    I would have thought the Independent Greeks would be allowed a go at running the country before Golden Dawn get their turn.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Lincoln Chafee announced yesterday too - his bold policy was for the US to go metric.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    kle4 said:

    I found Creagh very immature in the last few minutes of Question Time tonight. Giggling and pointing and laughing at Norman Lamb and shouting over him about how people weren't voting Lib Dem. Looked like very childish schaudenfreude for a candidate to be LOTO, especially given Labour didn't exactly do well either.

    She is not going to make the shortlist.
    Who will she back?
    Hans Holbein each way if she has any sense.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Tim_B said:

    Lincoln Chafee announced yesterday too - his bold policy was for the US to go metric.

    Well if that is his policy he will lose by a mile!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Ed Stone has been given the honour of its own Wikipedia page:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Stone
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Disraeli said:

    Tim_B said:

    Lincoln Chafee announced yesterday too - his bold policy was for the US to go metric.

    Well if that is his policy he will lose by a mile!
    His comment was that it's easy, and before long 34 will be hot.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    kle4 said:

    I found Creagh very immature in the last few minutes of Question Time tonight. Giggling and pointing and laughing at Norman Lamb and shouting over him about how people weren't voting Lib Dem. Looked like very childish schaudenfreude for a candidate to be LOTO, especially given Labour didn't exactly do well either.

    She is not going to make the shortlist.
    Who will she back?
    Hans Holbein each way if she has any sense.
    :-) Touche! A clever bit of intellectual humour, N4E!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited June 2015
    AndyJS said:

    The Ed Stone has been given the honour of its own Wikipedia page:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Stone

    It does give the cones hotline an aura of magnificence.

    I liked Lucy Powell's comment that merely because they were cast in stone didn't mean he couldn't break them.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    The Ed Stone has been given the honour of its own Wikipedia page:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Stone

    Did you write that? It's very well done.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speaking of the Ed-Stone and the ten commandments.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I48hr8HhDv0
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    The Ed Stone has been given the honour of its own Wikipedia page:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Stone

    Did you write that? It's very well done.
    If it's well-written it probably wasn't written by me...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Ed Stone has been given the honour of its own Wikipedia page:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Stone

    Did you write that? It's very well done.
    If it's well-written it probably wasn't written by me...
    That was my thought too :)
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    I did something pretty unusual tonight.

    After taking part in my first party canvassing in the election I was out in the Donside/Aberdeen part of Alex Salmond's consituency canvassing this evening.

    This is the same bit that I was working in during the campaign a couple of times. Two things. Quite a lot of people still have Salmond posters in their windows. Indeed some still have YES posters up. This seems pretty remarkable to me. Is it common ealsewhere? Lots of support for very early referendum and overall results show SNP at 60 per cent plus.

    Oh and one for the Salmond haters on this site. He already has had a leaflet out thanking people for their support with his office contact numbers and is busy working on solving a local health centre issue. Indeed several houses had his thank you card displayed on their doors!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    scotslass said:

    He already has had a leaflet out thanking people for their support with his office contact numbers and is busy working on solving a local health centre issue.

    You do know health is devolved, right?

    And he used to be first minister. If he couldn't fix it then...
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Scott_P


    You do know that he is also an MSP, right?

    And the issue seems to have been resolved as he promised to to during the election. GP practice wound up - new practice now taking over in same building.

    Anyway Scott P IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Because you don't vote for him. Many , indeed an increasing number in this constituency do.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2015
    Interesting that the BBC's exit poll hasn't forecast a Tory overall majority since 1987, when they predicting a Con majority of 26 when it was actually 102. The last time they got it anywhere near right was 1983 when they predicted a 146 majority (it was actually 144).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    UKIP has a very tricky period in the lead up to the EU referendum I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting that the BBC's exit poll hasn't forecast a Tory overall majority since 1987, when they predicting a Con majority of 26 when it was actually 102. The last time they got it anywhere near right was 1983 when they predicted a 146 majority (it was actually 144).

    It's going to be so difficult not to think the same has happened in 2020. Could end up in humiliation for PB Tories!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Decent performances all round this evening on AT - FleetSTFox had a couple of vacuous snide assdoes at times though
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    According to Wikipedia the term "Anglosphere" wasn't coined until 1995, which seems a bit unlikely IMO:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglosphere#Definitions
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Plato said:

    Philip Collins takes on the legacy on Charlie Kennedy = http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4460867.ece

    He thinks Charlie's strategy of becoming the NOTA Party lead them nowhere.

    Haven't read the article but I have sympathy with the perspective. If your party is a cobbled-together alliance that doesn't stand for anything in particular, and you woo different segments of the population with completely disparate messages (which you can get away with because third parties have historically evaded the scrutiny they deserve) then what is the point of you? And what happens if you actually, for whatever reason, get into power? How can you be all things to all people then?

    It's a strategy with a built-in element of future failure. Ironically, by pumping up the number of MPs, the risk of this failure becomes more acute, because it increases the chances of getting drawn into a Coalition.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Tricky GCSE maths exam sees pupils take to Twitter

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33017299

    Arhhh dee dums, they got a hardy wardy question in their maths GCSE, one that wasn't just a recycled question off a previous years paper...

    God help them in the real world....so we need to come up with a novel solution to this problem as that is how we make money in the knowledge economy...what there isn't a solution from last year I can just copy?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Tricky GCSE maths exam sees pupils take to Twitter

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33017299

    Arhhh dee dums, they got a hardy wardy question in their maths GCSE, one that wasn't just a recycled question off a previous years paper...

    God help them in the real world....so we need to come up with a novel solution to this problem as that is how we make money in the knowledge economy...what there isn't a solution from last year I can just copy?

    LOL. Just got a Facebook message from my niece with one of the questions, saying her mum (my sister) told her I could give her the answer.

    The question was: Hannah has 6 yellow sweets, prove that n2-n-90 = 0.

    I've no idea what the 6 yellow sweets have to do with anything, and I can't 'prove' anything. However, I could solve for the equation. (n2= n squared, sorry for the lack of superscript). Took me less than 20 seconds.

    BTW, her answer was way more fun than mine, to wit "Well, that escalated quickly!"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    MTimT said:

    Tricky GCSE maths exam sees pupils take to Twitter

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33017299

    Arhhh dee dums, they got a hardy wardy question in their maths GCSE, one that wasn't just a recycled question off a previous years paper...

    God help them in the real world....so we need to come up with a novel solution to this problem as that is how we make money in the knowledge economy...what there isn't a solution from last year I can just copy?

    LOL. Just got a Facebook message from my niece with one of the questions, saying her mum (my sister) told her I could give her the answer.

    The question was: Hannah has 6 yellow sweets, prove that n2-n-90 = 0.

    I've no idea what the 6 yellow sweets have to do with anything, and I can't 'prove' anything. However, I could solve for the equation. (n2= n squared, sorry for the lack of superscript). Took me less than 20 seconds.

    BTW, her answer was way more fun than mine, to wit "Well, that escalated quickly!"
    What's 6 got to do with anything?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    Tricky GCSE maths exam sees pupils take to Twitter

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33017299

    Arhhh dee dums, they got a hardy wardy question in their maths GCSE, one that wasn't just a recycled question off a previous years paper...

    God help them in the real world....so we need to come up with a novel solution to this problem as that is how we make money in the knowledge economy...what there isn't a solution from last year I can just copy?

    LOL. Just got a Facebook message from my niece with one of the questions, saying her mum (my sister) told her I could give her the answer.

    The question was: Hannah has 6 yellow sweets, prove that n2-n-90 = 0.

    I've no idea what the 6 yellow sweets have to do with anything, and I can't 'prove' anything. However, I could solve for the equation. (n2= n squared, sorry for the lack of superscript). Took me less than 20 seconds.

    BTW, her answer was way more fun than mine, to wit "Well, that escalated quickly!"
    What's 6 got to do with anything?
    Exactly. 10 and -9.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    @FrancisUrquhart Finally got around to starting the US version of House of Cards. In it, it is Francis (Frank) Underwood. At least they kept the initials. Bloody good, though. Kevin Spacey is perfect in his role. Binge watching to catch up. They are on Season 4 now. We just finished season 1 in less than a week and onto Season 2.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    AndyJS said:

    According to Wikipedia the term "Anglosphere" wasn't coined until 1995, which seems a bit unlikely IMO:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglosphere#Definitions

    That sounds entirely plausible to me. It's a mendacious term.
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