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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : June 4th 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : June 4th 2015
(Deferred Election, Two Con defences, One Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 26, Labour 9, Independents 1
Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives: Ian Jelley 1,103 (E), Margaret Talbot 1,079 (E), Neil Matthews 1,052 (37%)
Labour: Alan Mills 1,077 (E), Mark Hughes 847, Martin Fage 778 (36%)
Independent:
0
Comments
He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
Barclays are not renewing their sponsorship of the premier league from 2016 onwards, but the Premier League have decided not to have any sponsor, as it dilutes the brand of the English Premier League.
So the Premiership clubs have decided they are so rich, they no longer need a £40 million quid a year sponsor.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-walker-rape-victims-most-concerned-about-pregnancy-in-initial-months/
" "I mean, I think for most people concerned about that, it's in the initial months when they're the most concerned about it," Walker told reporters of pregnancies brought about by rape or incest."
So far the top 3 GOP candidates for the nomination have either endorsed the Iraq War or they are so "severe" social conservatives they make rape comments.
http://wisbechrail.org.uk/
http://www.bramleyline.org.uk/
Being the most extreme candidate (Kendall, Burnham before Corbyn) means you only fight one front and don't end up being sandwiched like Creagh.
Basically the labour leadership is at it's primary stage and works like an American primary, the problem is although being an extremist helps in the primary it doesn't help in the general, as Kendall and Corbyn are going to find if they ever make it out of the primary.
Anyay you will be pleased to hear have left my final comment on UKIP/SNP on last thread, got to go and do some printing so will leave it there
Terrorist ‘moron’ reveals ISIS HQ in online selfie, U.S. Air Force promptly destroys compound
http://bit.ly/1FXdgKt
To me, the problem isn't so much those words you quote, as the fact that he'd sign a bill banning abortion after 20 weeks regardless of incest or rape. It is not good enough for me to use the presumption that most victims would seek an abortion before 20 weeks to justify removing that option from victims who come to a decision after 20 weeks.
It does not bode well for him going forward. Rubio is looking more and more like the last man standing, unless someone like Kasich from the second tier can beak through.
It doesn't matter though, Hillary would have won anyway even before half the GOP field self-destructed.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/jeb-bush-to-announce-for-president-june-15-in-miami/2232249
Goodnight.
The European elections in 1999 resulted in a stunning success for the Tories, and a complete mauling for Labour who were 20% plus ahead in the opinion polls at the time!
Where is the Selfie in question?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
Now we just have to hope ISIS are stupid enough to do it again, despite the USAF being stupid enough to publicise it.
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/06/httpwwwdailystarcomlbnewsmiddle-east2015jun-04300520-iran-sends-15000-fighters-to-syriaashx.html
Alawites aren't finished yet.
http://pando.com/2015/05/23/the-war-nerd-doing-the-math-on-alawite-casualty-numbers/
I'm glad that I asked now. Almost every constituency/town is interesting in its own way.
The sheer arrogance of the top brass at the Premier league is positively mind-boggling!
Ealing Central and Acton CLP: Tessa and Sadiq
Hornsey CLP: Tessa and David
Brent Central CLP: Diane and Sadiq
Bethnal Green and Bow CLP: Diane and Sadiq
Barking CLP: Tessa and
Bexleyheath & Crayford: Tessa and Gareth
Chelsea and Fulham: Tessa and Christian Wolmar
East Ham: Tessa (by 6 votes over Diane) and Sadiq (71 to 15 for Lammy)
Bermondsey: Tessa and Sadiq
Search twitter: a lot of ordinary voters support his "antiausterity" ticket. Getting the ballot is far harder.
I had thought the shortlist panel would simply sign off bt Jowell/Khan/Lammy/Abbott/Wolmar/Thomas might have to be trimmed. Unless people withdraw.
Its a measure of how at risk Assad is that Iran is looking to invoke its 2006 pact with Syria and put active fighting troops on the ground. They already have some on the ground but the fighting formations have been very small. Like in Iraq the Iranians have largely relied on local and imported Shia militia groups that they supply, pay and direct.
The question is, how many? Iran simply doesn't have a large sustained power projection capability so the best assumption is 'special forces'. Assad still has reasonable amounts of kit, what he is short of is bodies, and good ones at that. Large scale conventional forces (i.e. in the 10k plus category formations) might be hard to sustain direct from Iran.
With insurgents in various forms cutting off logistical routes for Assad, including taking control of airfields previously used to ferry supplies, the Iranians on a more prosaic level do need to get a move on.
Its an interesting turn, but will be it be decisive? Hard to tell.
More soon about their likely first battlefield targets.
Comerade Corbyn has a nice ring to it
One thing we do not know is how right or left wing the electorate will be. The constituency section went for David M last time, so is not averse to right wing candidates. The TU affiliated candidates are an unknown quantity as are the registered supporters. With a new system there is not a lot of precedent to go on.
I would think that name recognition will count for a fair bit, even with a self selected electorate.
Be careful, each election is different, and sometimes winnings taunt more than losses.
Yields on 2-year Greek bonds shot up to 21.8%. Fears of run on Greek banks + imminent capital controls. Athens share prices will plummet Fri
If Andrew is right, those with hidden drachmas will do well. Of course those must be gold drachmas.
Where are those old Greek stamps I used to save?
Despite my betting failures the election night was awesome. I sat up all night with my daughter loving the results.
Wisbech is a pretty depressing place despite a moderately interesting town centre. Interesting to see how the Kippers do. The Fens were where they had most second places outside Northern towns. I think Con gain.
I would like to see some LD gains over the next year as a sign of a Farronite resurgence.
He thinks Charlie's strategy of becoming the NOTA Party lead them nowhere.
First question..... is MPs 10% pay rise acceptable
Tory says no absolutely not and inappropriate y= silence from audience
Labour just says. No = huge clapping
Make your own mind up about the audience.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/606571549911601153
Of course this country can survive on our own. And of course there won't be another World War. We have other and honest reasons to believe in staying in the EU that should be made.
If Greece leaves the Euro it will be chaos and the probable fall of Syrizia. Who will replace them? Who knows! Not even the Greeks that I work with have a clue, but possibly the far right.
It will take the markets time to get over this ridiculous idea that Greece leaving somehow undermines the whole Euro project. If it exits, it will be because Greece refused to play by the rules, went bankrupt and was forced out. If it chose/chooses to play by the rules it would have/will stay in.
Merkel Adviser to Cameron: Stop 'Wishful Thinking' Over EU Reform - Breitbart http://bit.ly/1KGAaa8
==========
Andrew Neil @afneil 37m37 minutes ago
Tsipras will address the Greek parliament at 6 p.m. local time tomorrow (Friday)
==============
What are the odds he'll make it to December?
It seems that Kendall has overtaken Cooper in declared support.
I would not want to be in Athens or Thessaloniki when it kicks off, the islands will probably be fine.
Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)
Can we call Peak Kipper yet?