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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : June 4th 2015

SystemSystem Posts: 12,218
edited June 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : June 4th 2015

(Deferred Election, Two Con defences, One Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 26, Labour 9, Independents 1
Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives: Ian Jelley 1,103 (E), Margaret Talbot 1,079 (E), Neil Matthews 1,052 (37%)
Labour: Alan Mills 1,077 (E), Mark Hughes 847, Martin Fage 778 (36%)
Independent:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    First
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Moses_ said:

    First

    Second
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Huzzah, I have missed these
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    I am just wondering if the electorate have been bombarded with politics since indyref and will decide on the day couldn't give one even if it was a flying one?
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    According to Betfair, David Miliband is more than twice as likely to be the next Labour leader as Jeremy Corbyn.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    rullko said:

    According to Betfair, David Miliband is more than twice as likely to be the next Labour leader as Jeremy Corbyn.

    In reality, I and most PBers are twice as likely to be the next Labour as Jeremy Corbyn
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Since Burnham has more that 35 MP's he can afford to chip away one or two to non-viable candidates.
    He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    On Topic, the Tories will win all council by-elections tonight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    The most interesting news of today.

    Barclays are not renewing their sponsorship of the premier league from 2016 onwards, but the Premier League have decided not to have any sponsor, as it dilutes the brand of the English Premier League.

    So the Premiership clubs have decided they are so rich, they no longer need a £40 million quid a year sponsor.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    On Topic - I wonder why Wisbech South has been successful for UKIP. Is there a strong immigration element in this, I wonder?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Speedy said:

    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Since Burnham has more that 35 MP's he can afford to chip away one or two to non-viable candidates.
    He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
    Blimey, Corbyn has more than Creagh after 24 hours.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    Disraeli said:

    On Topic - I wonder why Wisbech South has been successful for UKIP. Is there a strong immigration element in this, I wonder?

    This used, I believe, to be Liberal territory, in the era of Clement Freud. There is a strong and persistent element of non-conformism in the area (as in religious observance) and indeed it was Cromwell country in the civil war. Fertile territory for UKIP, although if ever they became the party of government they would immediately be rejected by the Fenman.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    If HYUFD has stopped arguing about which is bigger UKIP or the SNP, here's some 2016 news for him, Scott Walker has veered into the rape sandpit and done a Todd Akin:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-walker-rape-victims-most-concerned-about-pregnancy-in-initial-months/

    " "I mean, I think for most people concerned about that, it's in the initial months when they're the most concerned about it," Walker told reporters of pregnancies brought about by rape or incest."

    So far the top 3 GOP candidates for the nomination have either endorsed the Iraq War or they are so "severe" social conservatives they make rape comments.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    Disraeli said:

    On Topic - I wonder why Wisbech South has been successful for UKIP. Is there a strong immigration element in this, I wonder?

    Locals want to reopen the railway line between Wisbech South and March. As this may well be a preserved line, the style of the uniforms worn by staff is of utmost importance.

    http://wisbechrail.org.uk/
    http://www.bramleyline.org.uk/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2015

    Speedy said:

    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Since Burnham has more that 35 MP's he can afford to chip away one or two to non-viable candidates.
    He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
    Blimey, Corbyn has more than Creagh after 24 hours.
    That's because he is the most left wing candidate.
    Being the most extreme candidate (Kendall, Burnham before Corbyn) means you only fight one front and don't end up being sandwiched like Creagh.

    Basically the labour leadership is at it's primary stage and works like an American primary, the problem is although being an extremist helps in the primary it doesn't help in the general, as Kendall and Corbyn are going to find if they ever make it out of the primary.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Speedy Thanks for that that is big news and probably torpedoed his candidacy, though I never thought he would be nominee personally some certainly did

    Anyay you will be pleased to hear have left my final comment on UKIP/SNP on last thread, got to go and do some printing so will leave it there
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    edited June 2015
    This amused me inordinately

    Terrorist ‘moron’ reveals ISIS HQ in online selfie, U.S. Air Force promptly destroys compound

    http://bit.ly/1FXdgKt
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited June 2015
    Speedy said:

    If HYUFD has stopped arguing about which is bigger UKIP or the SNP, here's some 2016 news for him, Scott Walker has veered into the rape sandpit and done a Todd Akin:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-walker-rape-victims-most-concerned-about-pregnancy-in-initial-months/

    " "I mean, I think for most people concerned about that, it's in the initial months when they're the most concerned about it," Walker told reporters of pregnancies brought about by rape or incest."

    So far the top 3 GOP candidates for the nomination have either endorsed the Iraq War or they are so "severe" social conservatives they make rape comments.

    Not elegant wording, but prima facie it makes sense. If you are raped and you get pregnant, aren't you likely to be most worried about it in the first trimester? That is when the indignity and shock of it first hits and hits hardest. And if the pregnancy goes past the first trimester, for most victims it will be because they have come to terms with it and decided not to have an abortion.

    To me, the problem isn't so much those words you quote, as the fact that he'd sign a bill banning abortion after 20 weeks regardless of incest or rape. It is not good enough for me to use the presumption that most victims would seek an abortion before 20 weeks to justify removing that option from victims who come to a decision after 20 weeks.

    It does not bode well for him going forward. Rubio is looking more and more like the last man standing, unless someone like Kasich from the second tier can beak through.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Thanks for that that is big news and probably torpedoed his candidacy, though I never thought he would be nominee personally some certainly did

    Anyay you will be pleased to hear have left my final comment on UKIP/SNP on last thread, got to go and do some printing so will leave it there

    It must be the summer heat that is affecting the GOP candidates, so far Bush and Rubio got stuck in Iraq, Huckabee committed political suicide by supporting a child molestor and now Walker has transformed into Todd Akin.

    It doesn't matter though, Hillary would have won anyway even before half the GOP field self-destructed.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    I like local election results. Something has to whet the appetite between feasts.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    I realise there are problems in correlating local election results to national results, but it would be interesting to know if the local election results in the six/twelve months before the GE in any way indicated the final result?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    This amused me inordinately

    Terrorist ‘moron’ reveals ISIS HQ in online selfie, U.S. Air Force promptly destroys compound

    http://bit.ly/1FXdgKt

    So all those snooping powers used by intelligence agencies couldn't reveal the ISIS HQ, but a silly selfie did.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2015
    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    If HYUFD has stopped arguing about which is bigger UKIP or the SNP, here's some 2016 news for him, Scott Walker has veered into the rape sandpit and done a Todd Akin:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-walker-rape-victims-most-concerned-about-pregnancy-in-initial-months/

    " "I mean, I think for most people concerned about that, it's in the initial months when they're the most concerned about it," Walker told reporters of pregnancies brought about by rape or incest."

    So far the top 3 GOP candidates for the nomination have either endorsed the Iraq War or they are so "severe" social conservatives they make rape comments.

    Not elegant wording, but prima facie it makes sense. If you are raped and you get pregnant, aren't you likely to be most worried about it in the first trimester? That is when the indignity and shock of it first hits and hits hardest. And if the pregnancy goes past the first trimester, for most victims it will be because they have come to terms with it and decided not to have an abortion.

    To me, the problem isn't so much those words you quote, as the fact that he'd sign a bill banning abortion after 20 weeks regardless of incest or rape. It is not good enough for me to use the presumption that most victims would seek an abortion before 20 weeks to justify removing that option from victims who come to a decision after 20 weeks.

    It does not bode well for him going forward. Rubio is looking more and more like the last man standing, unless someone like Kasich from the second tier can beak through.
    Rubio makes Romney look and sound like a normal human being, and that takes some effort.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2015
    HYUFD said:
    Apparently his accidental announcement a few weeks ago didn't create a bounce so he's re-announcing it in the hope that this time people will like him more.

    Goodnight.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    This amused me inordinately

    Terrorist ‘moron’ reveals ISIS HQ in online selfie, U.S. Air Force promptly destroys compound

    http://bit.ly/1FXdgKt

    I can only hope that the guy survived, if only for the sh*t he'll find himself in from his comrades.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    Even a party heading towards cataclysmic defeat at a general election can post some shockingly good non 'general election' election wins.

    The European elections in 1999 resulted in a stunning success for the Tories, and a complete mauling for Labour who were 20% plus ahead in the opinion polls at the time!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    I realise there are problems in correlating local election results to national results, but it would be interesting to know if the local election results in the six/twelve months before the GE in any way indicated the final result?
    This is something that I've been meaning to write about. A Rallings & Thrasher briefing that I was at in early April suggested that Labour was not doing as well as they probably should have been and that was highlighted as a possible pointer to May 7th. This tended to get over-shadowed by other analysis based on the national polls.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    This amused me inordinately

    Terrorist ‘moron’ reveals ISIS HQ in online selfie, U.S. Air Force promptly destroys compound

    http://bit.ly/1FXdgKt

    So all those snooping powers used by intelligence agencies couldn't reveal the ISIS HQ, but a silly selfie did.
    Or so the CIA want us to believe.

    Where is the Selfie in question?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    edited June 2015

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    I realise there are problems in correlating local election results to national results, but it would be interesting to know if the local election results in the six/twelve months before the GE in any way indicated the final result?
    This is something that I've been meaning to write about. A Rallings & Thrasher briefing that I was at in early April suggested that Labour was not doing as well as they probably should have been and that was highlighted as a possible pointer to May 7th. This tended to get over-shadowed by other analysis based on the national polls.

    Rod Crosby did a piece on it last year

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Since Burnham has more that 35 MP's he can afford to chip away one or two to non-viable candidates.
    He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
    Blimey, Corbyn has more than Creagh after 24 hours.
    That's because he is the most left wing candidate.
    Being the most extreme candidate (Kendall, Burnham before Corbyn) means you only fight one front and don't end up being sandwiched like Creagh.

    Basically the labour leadership is at it's primary stage and works like an American primary, the problem is although being an extremist helps in the primary it doesn't help in the general, as Kendall and Corbyn are going to find if they ever make it out of the primary.
    In a sense for me that is good, as I win most if Yvette takes it.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    The most interesting news of today.

    Barclays are not renewing their sponsorship of the premier league from 2016 onwards, but the Premier League have decided not to have any sponsor, as it dilutes the brand of the English Premier League.

    So the Premiership clubs have decided they are so rich, they no longer need a £40 million quid a year sponsor.

    This is terrible, what will players and managers stand in front of now when they are either, 'sick as parrots' or, 'over the moon Alan'.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    edited June 2015
    Speedy said:

    So all those snooping powers used by intelligence agencies couldn't reveal the ISIS HQ, but a silly selfie did.

    History is written by those who are marginally less incompetent than their opponents.

    Now we just have to hope ISIS are stupid enough to do it again, despite the USAF being stupid enough to publicise it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    I realise there are problems in correlating local election results to national results, but it would be interesting to know if the local election results in the six/twelve months before the GE in any way indicated the final result?
    This is something that I've been meaning to write about. A Rallings & Thrasher briefing that I was at in early April suggested that Labour was not doing as well as they probably should have been and that was highlighted as a possible pointer to May 7th. This tended to get over-shadowed by other analysis based on the national polls.
    Thanks. It'd be good to read any piece you manage to produce.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    I realise there are problems in correlating local election results to national results, but it would be interesting to know if the local election results in the six/twelve months before the GE in any way indicated the final result?
    This is something that I've been meaning to write about. A Rallings & Thrasher briefing that I was at in early April suggested that Labour was not doing as well as they probably should have been and that was highlighted as a possible pointer to May 7th. This tended to get over-shadowed by other analysis based on the national polls.

    The Vale of Glamorgan by election before the GE made me go hmm,.,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Speedy Indeed, could yet be Bush v Clinton - The Sequel!
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    This amused me inordinately

    Terrorist ‘moron’ reveals ISIS HQ in online selfie, U.S. Air Force promptly destroys compound

    http://bit.ly/1FXdgKt

    It does not seem to have amused you as half as much as the people who appended comments on Guido, or the individual who wrote them all to himself. Given the way ISIS use what is called social media, this seems a pretty useful tactic by the USA.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    Speedy said:

    This amused me inordinately

    Terrorist ‘moron’ reveals ISIS HQ in online selfie, U.S. Air Force promptly destroys compound

    http://bit.ly/1FXdgKt

    So all those snooping powers used by intelligence agencies couldn't reveal the ISIS HQ, but a silly selfie did.
    Or that is what they want us to believe. It might just be that they got the location from a.n.other source that they don't want ISIS to know about or the selfie confirmed another piece of intelligence.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    @franklyn, @JosiasJessop. Thank You!
    I'm glad that I asked now. Almost every constituency/town is interesting in its own way.
  • The most interesting news of today.

    Barclays are not renewing their sponsorship of the premier league from 2016 onwards, but the Premier League have decided not to have any sponsor, as it dilutes the brand of the English Premier League.

    So the Premiership clubs have decided they are so rich, they no longer need a £40 million quid a year sponsor.

    Never mind that it might have saved the hugely ripped-off paying spectators a tiny fraction off their admission costs.
    The sheer arrogance of the top brass at the Premier league is positively mind-boggling!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Walthamstow CLP: Diane (54 to 51 for Tessa) and Sadiq
    Ealing Central and Acton CLP: Tessa and Sadiq
    Hornsey CLP: Tessa and David
    Brent Central CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Bethnal Green and Bow CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Barking CLP: Tessa and
    Bexleyheath & Crayford: Tessa and Gareth
    Chelsea and Fulham: Tessa and Christian Wolmar
    East Ham: Tessa (by 6 votes over Diane) and Sadiq (71 to 15 for Lammy)
    Bermondsey: Tessa and Sadiq
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Walthamstow CLP: Diane (54 to 51 for Tessa) and Sadiq
    Ealing Central and Acton CLP: Tessa and Sadiq
    Hornsey CLP: Tessa and David
    Brent Central CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Bethnal Green and Bow CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Barking CLP: Tessa and
    Bexleyheath & Crayford: Tessa and Gareth
    Chelsea and Fulham: Tessa and Christian Wolmar
    East Ham: Tessa (by 6 votes over Diane) and Sadiq (71 to 15 for Lammy)
    Bermondsey: Tessa and Sadiq

    Is that 4 for Wolmar and 3 for Thomas now?
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Since Burnham has more that 35 MP's he can afford to chip away one or two to non-viable candidates.
    He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
    Blimey, Corbyn has more than Creagh after 24 hours.
    That's because he is the most left wing candidate.
    Being the most extreme candidate (Kendall, Burnham before Corbyn) means you only fight one front and don't end up being sandwiched like Creagh.

    Basically the labour leadership is at it's primary stage and works like an American primary, the problem is although being an extremist helps in the primary it doesn't help in the general, as Kendall and Corbyn are going to find if they ever make it out of the primary.
    If Corbyn actually gets 25 MPs he is bound to win, because every Tory in the country will pay their £3 and vote for him as Labour leader
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    franklyn said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Since Burnham has more that 35 MP's he can afford to chip away one or two to non-viable candidates.
    He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
    Blimey, Corbyn has more than Creagh after 24 hours.
    That's because he is the most left wing candidate.
    Being the most extreme candidate (Kendall, Burnham before Corbyn) means you only fight one front and don't end up being sandwiched like Creagh.

    Basically the labour leadership is at it's primary stage and works like an American primary, the problem is although being an extremist helps in the primary it doesn't help in the general, as Kendall and Corbyn are going to find if they ever make it out of the primary.
    If Corbyn actually gets 25 MPs he is bound to win, because every Tory in the country will pay their £3 and vote for him as Labour leader
    As he needs 35 MPs.

    Search twitter: a lot of ordinary voters support his "antiausterity" ticket. Getting the ballot is far harder.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I think so.

    Walthamstow CLP: Diane (54 to 51 for Tessa) and Sadiq
    Ealing Central and Acton CLP: Tessa and Sadiq
    Hornsey CLP: Tessa and David
    Brent Central CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Bethnal Green and Bow CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Barking CLP: Tessa and
    Bexleyheath & Crayford: Tessa and Gareth
    Chelsea and Fulham: Tessa and Christian Wolmar
    East Ham: Tessa (by 6 votes over Diane) and Sadiq (71 to 15 for Lammy)
    Bermondsey: Tessa and Sadiq

    Is that 4 for Wolmar and 3 for Thomas now?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Speedy said:

    This amused me inordinately

    Terrorist ‘moron’ reveals ISIS HQ in online selfie, U.S. Air Force promptly destroys compound

    http://bit.ly/1FXdgKt

    So all those snooping powers used by intelligence agencies couldn't reveal the ISIS HQ, but a silly selfie did.
    What's your point? An ISIS HQ is some obscure place in the desert - spotted by way of geographic features. What you choose to call 'snooping' is not aimed at that.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    I think so.


    Walthamstow CLP: Diane (54 to 51 for Tessa) and Sadiq
    Ealing Central and Acton CLP: Tessa and Sadiq
    Hornsey CLP: Tessa and David
    Brent Central CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Bethnal Green and Bow CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Barking CLP: Tessa and
    Bexleyheath & Crayford: Tessa and Gareth
    Chelsea and Fulham: Tessa and Christian Wolmar
    East Ham: Tessa (by 6 votes over Diane) and Sadiq (71 to 15 for Lammy)
    Bermondsey: Tessa and Sadiq

    Is that 4 for Wolmar and 3 for Thomas now?
    Hmm...

    I had thought the shortlist panel would simply sign off bt Jowell/Khan/Lammy/Abbott/Wolmar/Thomas might have to be trimmed. Unless people withdraw.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    I realise there are problems in correlating local election results to national results, but it would be interesting to know if the local election results in the six/twelve months before the GE in any way indicated the final result?
    In my view they did. Labour were just not doing well enough. One of my biggest betting regrets ever is that I took more notice of opinion polls than the local election results. The last election should have been my best ever gambling result as 5 years ago I was convinced that ed couldn't win and with the lib dems on 8% the Tories had a great chance. The local election results demonstrated this. Stupidly I paid too much attention to the polls and whilst I won some money with my two bets on the Tories in Eastleigh at 3/1 and the Tories at 13/1 for an overall majority 4 hours after the polling stations closed, I really should have backed my original thoughts much more. I haven't had a bet since. I don't think such value will ever exist again in my lifetime. The Tories at 3/1 in Eastleigh was just amazing. As a Eastleigh resident you do get used to the orange signs at election time . This time there were none. UKIP couldn't win the by election so could not win at the general election. Labour have no chance round here. The Tories should have been odds on and they were 3/1. I won 300 I should have won so much more. It Really has driven me mad over the past couple of weeks. It was so obvious yet I missed the chance of a lifetime. Gutted doesn't come close.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Syria:

    Its a measure of how at risk Assad is that Iran is looking to invoke its 2006 pact with Syria and put active fighting troops on the ground. They already have some on the ground but the fighting formations have been very small. Like in Iraq the Iranians have largely relied on local and imported Shia militia groups that they supply, pay and direct.

    The question is, how many? Iran simply doesn't have a large sustained power projection capability so the best assumption is 'special forces'. Assad still has reasonable amounts of kit, what he is short of is bodies, and good ones at that. Large scale conventional forces (i.e. in the 10k plus category formations) might be hard to sustain direct from Iran.

    With insurgents in various forms cutting off logistical routes for Assad, including taking control of airfields previously used to ferry supplies, the Iranians on a more prosaic level do need to get a move on.

    Its an interesting turn, but will be it be decisive? Hard to tell.

    More soon about their likely first battlefield targets.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    With my socialist comrade Lutfur Rahman, standing up to political corruption and cronyism. pic.twitter.com/Fg0krjSbGI

    — Comrade Corbyn (@OffencePolice) June 4, 2015
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MikeK said:

    With my socialist comrade Lutfur Rahman, standing up to political corruption and cronyism. pic.twitter.com/Fg0krjSbGI

    — Comrade Corbyn (@OffencePolice) June 4, 2015

    Comerade Corbyn has a nice ring to it
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    franklyn said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Since Burnham has more that 35 MP's he can afford to chip away one or two to non-viable candidates.
    He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
    Blimey, Corbyn has more than Creagh after 24 hours.
    That's because he is the most left wing candidate.
    Being the most extreme candidate (Kendall, Burnham before Corbyn) means you only fight one front and don't end up being sandwiched like Creagh.

    Basically the labour leadership is at it's primary stage and works like an American primary, the problem is although being an extremist helps in the primary it doesn't help in the general, as Kendall and Corbyn are going to find if they ever make it out of the primary.
    If Corbyn actually gets 25 MPs he is bound to win, because every Tory in the country will pay their £3 and vote for him as Labour leader
    35 not 25.

    One thing we do not know is how right or left wing the electorate will be. The constituency section went for David M last time, so is not averse to right wing candidates. The TU affiliated candidates are an unknown quantity as are the registered supporters. With a new system there is not a lot of precedent to go on.

    I would think that name recognition will count for a fair bit, even with a self selected electorate.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I found out who got the male nomination in Barking. It's Khan

    Walthamstow CLP: Diane (54 to 51 for Tessa) and Sadiq
    Ealing Central and Acton CLP: Tessa and Sadiq
    Hornsey CLP: Tessa and David
    Brent Central CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Bethnal Green and Bow CLP: Diane and Sadiq
    Barking CLP: Tessa and
    Bexleyheath & Crayford: Tessa and Gareth
    Chelsea and Fulham: Tessa and Christian Wolmar
    East Ham: Tessa (by 6 votes over Diane) and Sadiq (71 to 15 for Lammy)
    Bermondsey: Tessa and Sadiq

    Is that 4 for Wolmar and 3 for Thomas now?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    franklyn said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Since Burnham has more that 35 MP's he can afford to chip away one or two to non-viable candidates.
    He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
    Blimey, Corbyn has more than Creagh after 24 hours.
    That's because he is the most left wing candidate.
    Being the most extreme candidate (Kendall, Burnham before Corbyn) means you only fight one front and don't end up being sandwiched like Creagh.

    Basically the labour leadership is at it's primary stage and works like an American primary, the problem is although being an extremist helps in the primary it doesn't help in the general, as Kendall and Corbyn are going to find if they ever make it out of the primary.
    If Corbyn actually gets 25 MPs he is bound to win, because every Tory in the country will pay their £3 and vote for him as Labour leader
    As he needs 35 MPs.

    Search twitter: a lot of ordinary voters support his "antiausterity" ticket. Getting the ballot is far harder.
    Ah we all know how representative Twitter is ...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    currystar said:

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    I realise there are problems in correlating local election results to national results, but it would be interesting to know if the local election results in the six/twelve months before the GE in any way indicated the final result?
    In my view they did. Labour were just not doing well enough. One of my biggest betting regrets ever is that I took more notice of opinion polls than the local election results. The last election should have been my best ever gambling result as 5 years ago I was convinced that ed couldn't win and with the lib dems on 8% the Tories had a great chance. The local election results demonstrated this. Stupidly I paid too much attention to the polls and whilst I won some money with my two bets on the Tories in Eastleigh at 3/1 and the Tories at 13/1 for an overall majority 4 hours after the polling stations closed, I really should have backed my original thoughts much more. I haven't had a bet since. I don't think such value will ever exist again in my lifetime. The Tories at 3/1 in Eastleigh was just amazing. As a Eastleigh resident you do get used to the orange signs at election time . This time there were none. UKIP couldn't win the by election so could not win at the general election. Labour have no chance round here. The Tories should have been odds on and they were 3/1. I won 300 I should have won so much more. It Really has driven me mad over the past couple of weeks. It was so obvious yet I missed the chance of a lifetime. Gutted doesn't come close.
    I doubled my stake money overall, and did well on Eastleigh for much the same reasons.

    Be careful, each election is different, and sometimes winnings taunt more than losses.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    franklyn said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT - @stephenkb: Ronnie Campbell and Michael Meacher WITHDRAW their support for Andy Burnham and endorse Jeremy Corbyn: http://bit.ly/1R9mMiH

    Since Burnham has more that 35 MP's he can afford to chip away one or two to non-viable candidates.
    He has to be careful though not to make that a flood.
    Blimey, Corbyn has more than Creagh after 24 hours.
    That's because he is the most left wing candidate.
    Being the most extreme candidate (Kendall, Burnham before Corbyn) means you only fight one front and don't end up being sandwiched like Creagh.

    Basically the labour leadership is at it's primary stage and works like an American primary, the problem is although being an extremist helps in the primary it doesn't help in the general, as Kendall and Corbyn are going to find if they ever make it out of the primary.
    If Corbyn actually gets 25 MPs he is bound to win, because every Tory in the country will pay their £3 and vote for him as Labour leader
    As he needs 35 MPs.

    Search twitter: a lot of ordinary voters support his "antiausterity" ticket. Getting the ballot is far harder.
    Ah we all know how representative Twitter is ...
    I didn't say it wa representative - my point was there are at least n people who support him and that number is in the thousands.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited June 2015
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 4m4 minutes ago
    Yields on 2-year Greek bonds shot up to 21.8%. Fears of run on Greek banks + imminent capital controls. Athens share prices will plummet Fri

    If Andrew is right, those with hidden drachmas will do well. Of course those must be gold drachmas.
    Where are those old Greek stamps I used to save?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2015

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    You sound a bit tetchy Mike, but the point is well made.. if not explicit enough ...at this precise moment Local Election results are irrelevant. I am not dissing H Hayfield for providing the thread its just that after a GE their relevance is muted.. but as you say its best if I am off to my kindle.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    currystar said:

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    I realise there are problems in correlating local election results to national results, but it would be interesting to know if the local election results in the six/twelve months before the GE in any way indicated the final result?
    In my view they did. Labour were just not doing well enough. One of my biggest betting regrets ever is that I took more notice of opinion polls than the local election results. The last election should have been my best ever gambling result as 5 years ago I was convinced that ed couldn't win and with the lib dems on 8% the Tories had a great chance. The local election results demonstrated this. Stupidly I paid too much attention to the polls and whilst I won some money with my two bets on the Tories in Eastleigh at 3/1 and the Tories at 13/1 for an overall majority 4 hours after the polling stations closed, I really should have backed my original thoughts much more. I haven't had a bet since. I don't think such value will ever exist again in my lifetime. The Tories at 3/1 in Eastleigh was just amazing. As a Eastleigh resident you do get used to the orange signs at election time . This time there were none. UKIP couldn't win the by election so could not win at the general election. Labour have no chance round here. The Tories should have been odds on and they were 3/1. I won 300 I should have won so much more. It Really has driven me mad over the past couple of weeks. It was so obvious yet I missed the chance of a lifetime. Gutted doesn't come close.
    I doubled my stake money overall, and did well on Eastleigh for much the same reasons.

    Be careful, each election is different, and sometimes winnings taunt more than losses.
    As with most gamblers I lose overall but enjoy the wins. I have always known this and I am happy with that. This election was my chance to "beat the house" and I failed to take the chance. It was the perfect storm. Rubbish poling, local knowledge and loads of local election results which pointed to a Tory win. I just paid too much attention to the polling. I am giving up betting for a while.
    Despite my betting failures the election night was awesome. I sat up all night with my daughter loving the results.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    currystar said:

    currystar said:

    Who actually gives a toss about Local Election results BAR the fact that its going to heap more misery on Labour.

    If you don't like it then you don't have to come on the site on Thursday night's. Your choice.

    I realise there are problems in correlating local election results to national results, but it would be interesting to know if the local election results in the six/twelve months before the GE in any way indicated the final result?
    In my view they did. Labour were just not doing well enough. One of my biggest betting regrets ever is that I took more notice of opinion polls than the local election results. The last election should have been my best ever gambling result as 5 years ago I was convinced that ed couldn't win and with the lib dems on 8% the Tories had a great chance. The local election results demonstrated this. Stupidly I paid too much attention to the polls and whilst I won some money with my two bets on the Tories in Eastleigh at 3/1 and the Tories at 13/1 for an overall majority 4 hours after the polling stations closed, I really should have backed my original thoughts much more. I haven't had a bet since. I don't think such value will ever exist again in my lifetime. The Tories at 3/1 in Eastleigh was just amazing. As a Eastleigh resident you do get used to the orange signs at election time . This time there were none. UKIP couldn't win the by election so could not win at the general election. Labour have no chance round here. The Tories should have been odds on and they were 3/1. I won 300 I should have won so much more. It Really has driven me mad over the past couple of weeks. It was so obvious yet I missed the chance of a lifetime. Gutted doesn't come close.
    I doubled my stake money overall, and did well on Eastleigh for much the same reasons.

    Be careful, each election is different, and sometimes winnings taunt more than losses.
    As with most gamblers I lose overall but enjoy the wins. I have always known this and I am happy with that. This election was my chance to "beat the house" and I failed to take the chance. It was the perfect storm. Rubbish poling, local knowledge and loads of local election results which pointed to a Tory win. I just paid too much attention to the polling. I am giving up betting for a while.
    Despite my betting failures the election night was awesome. I sat up all night with my daughter loving the results.
    I don't do so well most of the time, so I expect Shadsy to get his money back in the end, but it does add interest, though my stakes were only about 1% of my annual income so quite affordable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    currystar said:

    should have

    Best friends with "could have" !
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    On topic. Rothwell is quite an upmarket place, so I am a little surprised the Labour vote is quite so high. Surely a Con hold, but by how much?

    Wisbech is a pretty depressing place despite a moderately interesting town centre. Interesting to see how the Kippers do. The Fens were where they had most second places outside Northern towns. I think Con gain.

    I would like to see some LD gains over the next year as a sign of a Farronite resurgence.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    though my stakes were only about 1% of my annual income so quite affordable.

    Lol mine weren't but I still felt a bit timid on some of the long odds on Tory bets - Christchurch at 1-8 was worth 4 figures in hindsight !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Kettering was 1-7 at the GE, a ridiculous price !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    I think alot of people don't like laying long odds and backing very short odds. In politics that can often be correct.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Philip Collins takes on the legacy on Charlie Kennedy = http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4460867.ece

    He thinks Charlie's strategy of becoming the NOTA Party lead them nowhere.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Apparently his accidental announcement a few weeks ago didn't create a bounce so he's re-announcing it in the hope that this time people will like him more.

    Goodnight.
    Hillary Clinton is also having a re-announcement in a couple of weeks, so nothing new there.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    If (when) Greece is forced out of the Euro, will the Euro weaken or strengthen? Should i buy my holiday money now or later?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    The most interesting news of today.

    Barclays are not renewing their sponsorship of the premier league from 2016 onwards, but the Premier League have decided not to have any sponsor, as it dilutes the brand of the English Premier League.

    So the Premiership clubs have decided they are so rich, they no longer need a £40 million quid a year sponsor.

    I don't blame them - could you imagine the Cialis Superbowl? The Tampax World Series? The Mayfield Ice Cream Stanley Cup? The Vesta Beef Curry Indian Premier League?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Oh well.... QT back to leftie time
    First question..... is MPs 10% pay rise acceptable

    Tory says no absolutely not and inappropriate y= silence from audience
    Labour just says. No = huge clapping

    Make your own mind up about the audience.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    MikeK said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 4m4 minutes ago
    Yields on 2-year Greek bonds shot up to 21.8%. Fears of run on Greek banks + imminent capital controls. Athens share prices will plummet Fri

    If Andrew is right, those with hidden drachmas will do well. Of course those must be gold drachmas.
    Where are those old Greek stamps I used to save?

    Those hidden drachma will be worthless, I'm afraid. There will be no convertibility between old and be drachma.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    alex. said:

    If (when) Greece is forced out of the Euro, will the Euro weaken or strengthen? Should i buy my holiday money now or later?

    Let me solve that quandary for you - vacation in the US...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Moses_ said:

    Oh well.... QT back to leftie time
    First question..... is MPs 10% pay rise acceptable

    Tory says no absolutely not and inappropriate y= silence from audience
    Labour just says. No = huge clapping

    Comment from the audience - "My benefits are being taxed to pay for this!"
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 4m4 minutes ago
    Yields on 2-year Greek bonds shot up to 21.8%. Fears of run on Greek banks + imminent capital controls. Athens share prices will plummet Fri

    If Andrew is right, those with hidden drachmas will do well. Of course those must be gold drachmas.
    Where are those old Greek stamps I used to save?

    To be fair, whatever you predict is well worth ignoring. 30 UKIP MP's! Embarrassing by any standard.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 4m4 minutes ago
    Yields on 2-year Greek bonds shot up to 21.8%. Fears of run on Greek banks + imminent capital controls. Athens share prices will plummet Fri

    If Andrew is right, those with hidden drachmas will do well. Of course those must be gold drachmas.
    Where are those old Greek stamps I used to save?

    Those hidden drachma will be worthless, I'm afraid. There will be no convertibility between old and be drachma.
    Yes so obviously correct. Is there such a thing as a gold drachma, as opposed to good old plain gold? I've been saving my Confederate money for years to no good effect.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    I'm sort of a Republican when her Majesty is no longer a Queen, this has confirmed it now

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/606571549911601153
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    alex. said:

    If (when) Greece is forced out of the Euro, will the Euro weaken or strengthen? Should i buy my holiday money now or later?

    It depends where you are going. Greece? Be prepared for massive inflation if you are. I'm not sure the cash points will be working in Greece much longer.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I believe in staying in the EU but even I'm getting fed up with the scaremongering about if we leave which is identical to the scaremongering for if we didn't join the €uro 15 years ago. Or the idea that there'd be a repeat of WWI and WWII if it weren't for the EU.

    Of course this country can survive on our own. And of course there won't be another World War. We have other and honest reasons to believe in staying in the EU that should be made.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    alex. said:

    If (when) Greece is forced out of the Euro, will the Euro weaken or strengthen? Should i buy my holiday money now or later?

    It depends where you are going. Greece? Be prepared for massive inflation if you are. I'm not sure the cash points will be working in Greece much longer.
    Take your money in cash Euros if going to Greece, the machines are being emptied and restraunts do not like credit cards etc. It is turning into a cash economy in tourist areas. Steer clear of the cities.

    If Greece leaves the Euro it will be chaos and the probable fall of Syrizia. Who will replace them? Who knows! Not even the Greeks that I work with have a clue, but possibly the far right.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2015
    Chuck Blazer and Jack Warner are certainly providing marvellous entertainment at the moment.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    alex. said:

    If (when) Greece is forced out of the Euro, will the Euro weaken or strengthen? Should i buy my holiday money now or later?

    Let me solve that quandary for you - vacation in the US...
    My guess is that, following any Grexit, in the short-term the Euro will be volatile perhaps with more downward pressure, but in the medium-to-long-term it will strengthen.

    It will take the markets time to get over this ridiculous idea that Greece leaving somehow undermines the whole Euro project. If it exits, it will be because Greece refused to play by the rules, went bankrupt and was forced out. If it chose/chooses to play by the rules it would have/will stay in.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    john l Jones UKIP ‏@jlj21964 37m37 minutes ago
    Merkel Adviser to Cameron: Stop 'Wishful Thinking' Over EU Reform - Breitbart http://bit.ly/1KGAaa8

    ==========
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 37m37 minutes ago
    Tsipras will address the Greek parliament at 6 p.m. local time tomorrow (Friday)

    ==============
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Friday's Guardian: “Greece steps towards the exit” (via @suttonnick) #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/jXaa8I0OLq

    — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) June 4, 2015
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    alex. said:

    If (when) Greece is forced out of the Euro, will the Euro weaken or strengthen? Should i buy my holiday money now or later?

    It depends where you are going. Greece? Be prepared for massive inflation if you are. I'm not sure the cash points will be working in Greece much longer.
    Any inflation will be more than offset by a plummeting exchange rate. Take cash Euros or dollars. Don't book until the last minute.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Chuck Blazer and Jack Warner are certainly providing marvellous entertainment at the moment.

    Blatter is still doing his bit -tweeting today with a pic of him at his desk that he is working on FIFA reforms..

    What are the odds he'll make it to December?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Apparently his accidental announcement a few weeks ago didn't create a bounce so he's re-announcing it in the hope that this time people will like him more.

    Goodnight.
    Hillary Clinton is also having a re-announcement in a couple of weeks, so nothing new there.
    Goodnight, Speedy. They need the stage managed show - a bit like a church wedding, the real deal was done at the engagement, but this is for show.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2015
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chuck Blazer and Jack Warner are certainly providing marvellous entertainment at the moment.

    Blatter is still doing his bit -tweeting today with a pic of him at his desk that he is working on FIFA reforms..

    What are the odds he'll make it to December?
    Does Brazil have an extradition treaty with the USA? That might be an attractive place for some of these FIFA officials to decamp to.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    http://labourlist.org/2015/06/whos-backing-who-and-who-did-endorsers-vote-to-be-leader-in-2010/

    It seems that Kendall has overtaken Cooper in declared support.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chuck Blazer and Jack Warner are certainly providing marvellous entertainment at the moment.

    Blatter is still doing his bit -tweeting today with a pic of him at his desk that he is working on FIFA reforms..
    "Too little, too late" springs to mind!
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    We were in Rhodes while the General Election was being held in the UK. There was no sign that there was a crisis - in fact the place looked quite affluent!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2015
    Disraeli said:

    We were in Rhodes while the General Election was being held in the UK. There was no sign that there was a crisis - in fact the place looked quite affluent!

    Corfu was fine last year too.

    I would not want to be in Athens or Thessaloniki when it kicks off, the islands will probably be fine.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    NeilVW said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chuck Blazer and Jack Warner are certainly providing marvellous entertainment at the moment.

    Blatter is still doing his bit -tweeting today with a pic of him at his desk that he is working on FIFA reforms..
    "Too little, too late" springs to mind!
    I can just see Blatter negotiating to the end - frequent flier miles and a first class upgrade on his extradition flight.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chuck Blazer and Jack Warner are certainly providing marvellous entertainment at the moment.

    Blatter is still doing his bit -tweeting today with a pic of him at his desk that he is working on FIFA reforms..

    What are the odds he'll make it to December?
    Does Brazil have an extradition treaty with the USA? That might be an attractive place for some of these FIFA officials to decamp to.
    I suspect the Feds might have thought of that too..
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    According to the BBC Kendal has now got the required 35 MP nominations.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2015
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
    CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
    UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
    LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
    LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

    Can we call Peak Kipper yet?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chuck Blazer and Jack Warner are certainly providing marvellous entertainment at the moment.

    Blatter is still doing his bit -tweeting today with a pic of him at his desk that he is working on FIFA reforms..

    What are the odds he'll make it to December?
    Does Brazil have an extradition treaty with the USA? That might be an attractive place for some of these FIFA officials to decamp to.
    With Brazil, it used to be that you had to be a Brazilian citizen, or married to one, to avoid deportation. Guess Sepp would have to take a local wife.
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