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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will be the Tory London Mayoral Candidate
In less than a year Londoners will elect the successor to Boris Johnson, but who will be the Tory candidate? I suspect the candidate will someone with a high profile, and the ideal choice, would be Lord Coe, but it is believed his future is focussed upon the IOC, so who then?
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Andrew Boff, leader of the Conservative Group on the London Assembly[2][3]
Sol Campbell, former England football player[4][5]
Stephen Greenhalgh, businessman and Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime[6]
Ivan Massow, financial services entrepreneur, gay rights campaigner and media personality[7]
As far as I'm concerned the field is wide open for further entrants.
GeoffM said:
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I think surbiton has the insanely brilliant idea that the LibDems could all resign at once and create those by-elections!
Just come across this:
I think UKIP would welcome 7 by elections to get their act together, for one thing. Who knows they may even win a seat or two.
MarkHopkins said:
Shame summer is over.
I wonder how long autumn will last?
Ahhh, but we are being threatened with Flaming June from Wednesday, just in time to save the UK global warming fraternity from their blushes.
This sort of attitude shows why football is a hideous carbuncle on the face of modern society. No wonder FIFA is hideously corrupt, given the stupid mindset of many of the ''sports' supporters.
(ducks)
Campbell and Brady would at least both be different from the ordinary run-of-the-mill politicians and to judge by the previous two incumbents they seem to be the popular pick in London. I have no interest in football - however, would there really be more Tottenham Hotspur fans than Arsenal or England fans in London?
I wonder how much it matters though. Is it terribly likely that the Tories will win in London next year? Admittedly it may depend on the candidates, but I would suggest Labour should at the moment, based on every election result of the last 7 years bar Boris's narrow victory, be considered favourites. The only way I could see them losing is if they select somebody literally unelectable (and by unelectable, I'm talking about Harriet Harman - please tell me she's not standing!) to contest the mayoralty.
Lord Coe would be great for London (and better than the wife of a convicted Italian-mafias' lawyer, who also convicted). Dependent upon the IoC vote I expect the Conservatives to win. What I would really like is Sol Campbell to stand: He scored two disqualified goals in major competitions that would have done our country proud. If only....
:please-stand-sol-campbell:
Edited-to-add:
Spurs fans aint't the brightest pennies in OGH's purse.
In particular, regional elections in 7 regions.
5 held by Centre-Left (Tuscany, Marche, Umbria, Liguria by a PD incumbent plus Puglia by Vendola) and 2 by Centre-right (Veneto by Lega and Campania by Forza Italia).
Tuscany should easily be held by PD incumbent.
Vendola is not standing in Puglia after 2 terms. Former Bari mayor Michele Emiliano should win this for PD. Centre-right is running 2 candidates. Vandala's outfit is backing Emiliano.
Umbria has traditionally been a Left stronghold. However, last year they unexpectedly lost the mayoralty in Perugia. Incumbent is running again. It seems there are sill some disillusion with local PD powerhouse. Centre-right is running united here. Polls were indicating a run not as easy as before for PD.
In Marche the PD incumbent has served 2 full terms. PD had a 2 terms limit rule. So he decided to run anyway changing coalition. Now supported by NCD and Forza Italia. PD is considered favored but not a landslide.
Liguria saw a split among PD after a blood bathing primary election campaign. A PD MP left the party to run again the official candidate (a member of the incumbent regional cabinet as the incumbent governor has served 2 terms and he isn't running again). Therefore polls were indicating a pretty close race. Forza Italia is fielding one of their big (for their standards, given Silvio is the only one really counting and attracting votes one way or the other) names Giovanni Toti.
Veneto should stay with Lega. Even after an internal split with Verona mayor running on his own.
Last but not least...Campania...held by Forza Italia.....controversial PD candidate in the shape of Mayor of Salerno.....polls indicated a close race....in the last few days debate arose around former juridical problems for PD candidate...but as it is Campania, legal problems can have less impact than elsewhere
Polls close at 11 PM. Count overnight
Mayoral election....big towns voting include
Venezia
Agrigento
Andria
Arezzo
Chieti
Enna
Fermo
Lecco
Mantova
Macerata
Matera
Nuoro
Rovigo
Tempio Pausania
Trani
Vibo Valentia
His sales pitch is very brave!
http://www.ivan.london/
(I assume your dislike of Campbell is due to football. If not, ignore the above).
What is it about football politics that turns intelligent, moral people into pathetic raving nutjobs?
Corrected for you.
More seriously: just because someone makes good TV, does not mean make them mayoral material. Politics aside, I certainly wouldn't vote for him - I think he probably fails the "good manager" and "detail oriented" tests.
He's an interesting character but a flaky candidate for office.
Italy is almost unique in the Eurozone in having a popular incumbent, despite economic woes.
Mind you the Leicester City reserves know how to destroy a celebratory tour of the owners country:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/leicester-fans-call-abhorrent-players-5796016
"Wouldn't spit on him if he was on fire."
I always thought it was 'piss on him' . But I suppose you don't always have a full bladder.
Only kidding, but I did go to Windsor (via the GWR route for those interested), also went on a boat trip as far upstream as Bray.
I can't help but wonder what 'depraved sex acts with local girls' might be, given the writer was a Mirror journalist?
It is only a civilised game if it doesn't change during a 2 hour nap.
Of course, F1 and classical history are what make a man civilised.
If Khan wins the Labour nomination then we might have the ghastly prospect of ethnic workplace quotas and Galloway versus whoever the Conservative is. It's important the blues pick someone capable of winning.
I'd be far more relaxed about Jowell getting the gig than Khan.
ie nothing that doesn't happen in the swinging lounges of Leicestershire every day of the week, every week of the year.
Where does the FIFA thing leave football as an imposer of Fit and Proper Person Tests and the Morality Police for the private lives of players?
It's interesting that the Mirror have treated the publicly funded Goldsmiths College racist as a straight piece of news, with no "vile"s, "racially abused"s, "swaggering"s, "depraved"s or "appalling"s.
I can see that Leicester City now have a marketing problem, given that they are Thai sponsored, however, plus a possible breach of contract issue. Strictly an issue for the club though.
You gotta love tabloid hypocrisy.
I'm sure the fans will meet this situation with their customary equanimity and good cheer.
However if they don't get promoted next year they will probably go bust, again.
Although I'm not sure a Scottish nationalist should accuse anyone else of sanctimony, given that too many of your brethren have your noses welded in place on Salmond's arse. Poor man, it must be quite uncomfortable for him ...
Since pompous sanctimony is a different thing from arse crawling I'm not quite sure where you're going with that leaden retort. Perhaps in Jessop world they're intimately connected.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/31/royston-smith-faces-claims-ukip-helped-ukip-candidate
I'd argue the ideal candidate for the Conservatives, who could genuinely win would be Zac Goldsmith - someone who isn't too ideological, and quite people-friendly. It would be a shame if Conservative HQ didn't back him.
http://news.sky.com/election/constituency/404/morley-and-outwood
Outside the polling station there were plenty of Jenkyns placards, and not a single Labour one, which was bizarre.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2613565/Polish-invasion-thats-SAVED-home-town-An-influx-25-000-Poles-left-Southamptons-schools-bursting-locals-feeling-pushed-But-BARBARA-DAVIES-grew-theres-story.html
Still a matter for the club not the outrage-trolls, though.
Sorry.
However: I have a few conclusions (and Andrea, feel free to correct me):
* The "Right" in Italy has been buggered royally by having Berlusconi as its head. Forza Italia (formerly People of Freedom, formerly Forza Italia...) is running at just 10-13% in the polls.
* The other right wing parties are "Us with Salvini" and the Lega Nord. (Which are right wing, regional, and somewhat Eurosceptic parties for the South and North of the Country.) Between them, these parties should get around 15% of the vote.
* Beppe Grillo's Five Star movement has recovered somewhat in the polls of late, but it still only at around a 20% share. Do you know what the Five Stars are (I didn't): they are the idea that the primary concerns of the Italian government should be (and I'm not joking) access to public water, sustainable transport, sustainable development, free Internet access, and environmentalism.
* And then there is Renzi's Democratic Party, which - although it's fallen from its highs - is still 20 odd points clear of the field in the mid to high 30s in the polls.
What is interesting about the Italian political landscape is that there are three groupings who are broadly eurosceptic (although not in the same way), and who together are in the high 40s in the polls. And there is one centre-left, europhile party which is in the high 30s. The other centrist political parties have all essentially disappeared (Civic Choice, New Centre-Right, etc.)
I would guess a good result for Renzi tonight would be victories everywhere except in the Lega Nord heartland. A bad result would be if the Five Star Movement actually won something, or if "Us With Salvini" made a breakthrough in the South.
In terms of regional elections, I would guess
Great for PD: winning 6 out of 7
Good: confirming the 5 holds with good leads
OK: confirming the 5 holds even if with some shaking majorities
Disappointing: 4 wins
Bad: everything below 4
Turnout at 19:00
Veneto 43.1%
Liguria 39.5%
Tuscany 35.5%
Marche 34.1%
Umbria 39.9%
Puglia 30.6%
Campania 35.9%
No direct comparison available with previous cycle as last time they voted in 2 days
1) The United Kingdom is NOT a federal state, so the country votes as one entity.
Previous referendums have established this precedent.
2) The four home countries do not have equal weight, anyway.
It would be absurd if England, Scotland and Wales all voted "OUT", and Northern Ireland voted in "IN", to let the tail wag the dog.
3) You can turn the "double-lock" on its head.
The vote is "YES" for "STAY IN". You can say that if any of the four home countries votes "NO" then this acts as a VETO.
She's simply seeking to foster division, which is the SNP's modus operandi when it comes to the UK.
You certainly gave the impression of looking for a dust up, apologies if I took up the challenge too enthusiastically.
Your arse is symbolically freed from the saddle of self righteousness.
Arsenal midfielder Jack Wilshere has led fans in an expletive-laden chant during the club's FA Cup victory celebrations.
The 23-year-old took to the microphone in front of thousands of fans outside the club's Emirates Stadium, mocking Premier League rivals Tottenham.
Wilshere sang two anti-Spurs songs on a balcony alongside his team-mates.
He launched a similar attack during last year's victory celebrations. The club is yet to comment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32950405
Although as an ex-public schoolboy, my arse might like the saddle of self-righteousness (especially if combined with PB Moderator's rolled up newspaper).
The government reaction to the SNP should be to ignore them completely. They represent only a small fraction of MPs and and any concessions made to them will be met only by a new list of demands. They really can't win by engaging with the Nats.
Moreover, it is pointless, because the Bill provides for a consultative referendum only, rather than one which binds the government. If the Bill obliged a Minister to do something (as in 1979 or in 2011), then an amendment making that obligation conditional on turnout or approval by all the constituent parts of the United Kingdom makes sense. The current Bill simply requires the Chief Counting Officer to certify the total number of votes cast in favour of each answer (see clause 3 of the Bill, applying section 128(6) of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 to the referendum). Any government will be able to regard that certificate as conclusive of the result, regardless of whether the Chief Counting Officer is required to make a separate certificate in respect of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
I still feel quite the fool for confusing Queens Anne and Mary [even though it's a vulgarly recent period of history].
The UK is not a federal state but we'd do well to start thinking of ourselves that way. We don't have a great record so far of maintaining the territorial integrity and cohesion of a unitary state spanning these islands.
On federal stuff: an English Parliament is the first order of business.