politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New research finds that the Tories took a third of the eth

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New research finds that the Tories took a third of the ethnic minority vote at GE2015

One million ethnic minority votes helped put David Cameron into Downing Street on election night, according to a major new piece of research into attitudes among minority voters released today (25 May).

Read the full story here

JosiasJessop

First?

peter_from_putney

Who wrote this anonymous thread?

notme

It's like everything else, a division between those who put in and those who take out, with a nice little sprinkle of "which party is likely to help me get my family over".

It is no surprise in some of those figures, some cultures are highly industrious and can integrate successfully wherever they settle. And some cultures can do nothing but cluster around job centres and recreate the same little savage villages trapped in the middle ages, here in the UK.

Remarkably, both these cultures end up coming from the same subcontinent.

MattW

It's a direct cut and paste from the Survation blog.

http://survation.com/the-conservatives-took-a-third-33-of-ethnic-minority-votes-in-the-general-election-equating-to-1-million-votes/

What gives, Mike?

Does it need to be identified as a guest cross-post, perhaps?

MattW

Or perhaps it's escaped from editing early? Happens to the best of us.

MikeSmithson

MattW said:

It's a direct cut and paste from the Survation blog.

http://survation.com/the-conservatives-took-a-third-33-of-ethnic-minority-votes-in-the-general-election-equating-to-1-million-votes/

What gives, Mike?

Does it need to be identified as a guest cross-post, perhaps?

What gives is that this took me totally by surprise and I thought it important and should replace what I had prepared for this morning.

Plato

This all makes me pretty cheerful - voters choosing a Party that's appealing to them as people rather than a *race* or collectively on being *not-White* will hopefully stop identity politics and the divisiveness that goes with it.

The results don't surprise me at all.

MattW

MikeSmithson said:

MattW said:

It's a direct cut and paste from the Survation blog.

http://survation.com/the-conservatives-took-a-third-33-of-ethnic-minority-votes-in-the-general-election-equating-to-1-million-votes/

What gives, Mike?

Does it need to be identified as a guest cross-post, perhaps?

What gives is that this took me totally by surprise and I thought it important and should replace what I had prepared for this morning.

:-).

Ah the demands of blogging for contemporaneity !

Thanks for the reply.

MikeSmithson

One thing I wonder is whether the threat/rise of UKIP was one of the factors.

In the key marginal of Bedford where I live there was little doubt that the Tories had done remarkably with with the ethnic minority vote.

peter_from_putney

MattW said:

It's a direct cut and paste from the Survation blog.

http://survation.com/the-conservatives-took-a-third-33-of-ethnic-minority-votes-in-the-general-election-equating-to-1-million-votes/

What gives, Mike?

Does it need to be identified as a guest cross-post, perhaps?

Hmm ...... it's not Mike's usual style at all to simply cut and paste someone else's piece on a wholly unaccredited basis. Most odd.

Edit bit - I've now read Mike's explanation.

JohnLilburne

Plato said:

This all makes me pretty cheerful - voters choosing a Party that's appealing to them as people rather than a *race* or collectively on being *not-White* will hopefully stop identity politics and the divisiveness that goes with it.

The results don't surprise me at all.

I agree, it is a small step towards being able to move on from identity politics.

Alistair

I've been away, have we discussed the make up of the elctorate for the EU Ref?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11627618/EU-referendum-Foreigners-barred-from-historic-vote.html

It seems a bit rum that after getting all the EU citizens to vote No in IndyRef by telling them that they would be kicked out of Scotland if they voted Yes to Independence to then deny them a vote on the EU.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, sadly I think the reverse is true.

Labour will shift ever more towards trying to grab and cling onto the Muslim vote (as per Sadiq Khan's ethnic quota bullshit).

I agree with Mr. Smithson that this is well worth discussion.

MikeSmithson

@peter_from_putney

Normally I get advance warning of things like this which I can process and edit down. That didn't happen and I felt the write-up from Survation was very good and comprehensive if a touch long

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Alistair, the SNP wanted to fiddle with those eligible to vote in the referendum by allowing those who are just 16 and 17 to vote. You can't complain about their requests being granted.

It's entirely correct to have the vote on the EU limited to those eligible to vote in a General Election.

Edited extra bit: it wasn't super-offensive, but I've slightly moderated the above post as it was a shade intemperate.

SouthamObserver

The morning after the night before and it's clear that much of Spain has turned sharply left. The Partido Popular has seen its vote share decline significantly, while Podemos-backed groups could well end up running Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Valladolid (!!) and many other big cities. Corruption scandals have really hurt the PP, as has the deep austerity. A general election is due by year end; if this result is repeated it will reverberate across the Eurozone. All the southern European countries, it seems, are looking leftwards. The EU is potentially facing a huge crisis. Greece may be containable, but throw in Spain, Italy and Portugal, and the stakes are raised massively. I am off to Barcelona today and Madrid later in the week. Stay tuned for further reports.

That the Catalan nationalists did not hold Barcelona may be the most significant result of all. This time a year ago they were carrying all before them.

Fernando

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Observer, cheers for that post. I was going to ask, prior to the final sentence, how well the Catalan nationalists had done. Does Podemos' rise mean the receding of the secessionist tide?

foxinsoxuk

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

Much the same reasons that other Britons do!

Plato

It's worthwhile comparing the educational attainment with voting patterns. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10688017/White-British-adults-less-qualified-than-ethnic-minorities.html

The study analysed results from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 census to track changes to qualifications over the last 20 years.

Overall, 26 per cent of white British adults held a degree, compared with 40 per cent of those described as Black African, 42 per cent of Indians and 43 per cent from Chinese backgrounds.

Many other ethnic groups made larger improvements over the 20-year period than their white British counterparts.

Between 1991 and 2011, the proportion of Indian people holding a degree increased almost three-fold from 15 to 42 per cent – a 27 percentage point increase. For those from Pakistani backgrounds, numbers more than tripled from seven to 25 per cent – a rise of 18 percentage points.

By comparison, the proportion of white people holding a degree increased from 13 to 26 per cent – up 13 percentage points.

This increase was smaller than for every other ethnic group examined, the study said.

"People from ethnic minority groups were generally more likely than white British people to have degree level qualifications or equivalent," it said.

"In 2011, only people from the white gypsy or Irish traveller, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and white and black Caribbean groups were less likely than white British people to have degree level qualifications or equivalent."

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

JohnLilburne

Alistair said:

I've been away, have we discussed the make up of the elctorate for the EU Ref?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11627618/EU-referendum-Foreigners-barred-from-historic-vote.html

It seems a bit rum that after getting all the EU citizens to vote No in IndyRef by telling them that they would be kicked out of Scotland if they voted Yes to Independence to then deny them a vote on the EU.

Not really, it is a national vote, they didn't get to vote in the GE either.

JohnLilburne

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

For much the same reason as other people, I suppose.

JohnLilburne

foxinsoxuk said:

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

Much the same reasons that other Britons do!

Thanks for your reply on the previous thread, by the way.

SouthamObserver

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, cheers for that post. I was going to ask, prior to the final sentence, how well the Catalan nationalists had done. Does Podemos' rise mean the receding of the secessionist tide?

Latest polls suggest that majority of Catalans would now vote No to secession, but it's close. The ruling CiU have been badly hit by a corruption scandal involving Jordi Pujol, an iconic figure in Catalan nationalism, a long-time president of the Catalan government and a founder of CiU. I'd say that's the biggest reason for CiU's demise, but what it clearly shows is that voters do not put independence above everything else. In the end it comes down to economics and a lot of people in Barcelona have been left behind as constitutional issues have dominated the political discourse.

Morris_Dancer

NI First Minister in hospital with suspected heart attack:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32873965

MattW

Plato said:

It's worthwhile comparing the educational attainment with voting patterns. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10688017/White-British-adults-less-qualified-than-ethnic-minorities.html

The study analysed results from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 census to track changes to qualifications over the last 20 years.

Overall, 26 per cent of white British adults held a degree, compared with 40 per cent of those described as Black African, 42 per cent of Indians and 43 per cent from Chinese backgrounds.

Many other ethnic groups made larger improvements over the 20-year period than their white British counterparts.

Between 1991 and 2011, the proportion of Indian people holding a degree increased almost three-fold from 15 to 42 per cent – a 27 percentage point increase. For those from Pakistani backgrounds, numbers more than tripled from seven to 25 per cent – a rise of 18 percentage points.

By comparison, the proportion of white people holding a degree increased from 13 to 26 per cent – up 13 percentage points.

This increase was smaller than for every other ethnic group examined, the study said.

"People from ethnic minority groups were generally more likely than white British people to have degree level qualifications or equivalent," it said.

"In 2011, only people from the white gypsy or Irish traveller, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and white and black Caribbean groups were less likely than white British people to have degree level qualifications or equivalent."

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

Hmmm. I'm not sure what influence education can be shown to have from this.

I think those educational numbers can be substantially accounted for by age profiles within each community, so they may be a dependent variable.

The splurge in everybody getting degrees only started in 1990-2000, and so applies to under 40s mainly.

Meanwhile the "white" community is far older, and so has far fewer degrees.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/figure1_tcm77-310573.png

Ferdinand

malcolmg

Alistair said:

I've been away, have we discussed the make up of the elctorate for the EU Ref?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11627618/EU-referendum-Foreigners-barred-from-historic-vote.html

It seems a bit rum that after getting all the EU citizens to vote No in IndyRef by telling them that they would be kicked out of Scotland if they voted Yes to Independence to then deny them a vote on the EU.

That's unionists for you, if they can enhance their chances they will use anything

Plato

My first LOL of the Day.

Thanks MrG!

malcolmg said:

Alistair said:

I've been away, have we discussed the make up of the elctorate for the EU Ref?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11627618/EU-referendum-Foreigners-barred-from-historic-vote.html

It seems a bit rum that after getting all the EU citizens to vote No in IndyRef by telling them that they would be kicked out of Scotland if they voted Yes to Independence to then deny them a vote on the EU.

That's unionists for you, if they can enhance their chances they will use anything

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, ahem. Letting people vote on the UK's future who are eligible to vote in General Elections is the most natural and obvious thing.

MarqueeMark

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

You'd like to think it wasn't just because Labour is so closely associated with the Muslims, but there's that nagging doubt....

foxinsoxuk

I am sure that education and social class account for much of the differences between different sectors of the BAME population.

A couple of other interesting nuggets in the survation table: 44% of Scottish BME voted SNP, and BME Bhuddists (Chinese and Sinhalese?) were even more inclined to the Tories, 53.9% to 24.7%.

malcolmg

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Alistair, the SNP wanted to fiddle with those eligible to vote in the referendum by allowing those who are just 16 and 17 to vote. You can't complain about their requests being granted.

It's entirely correct to have the vote on the EU limited to those eligible to vote in a General Election.

Edited extra bit: it wasn't super-offensive, but I've slightly moderated the above post as it was a shade intemperate.

MD if that had been the case the SNP would not have had English people voting in the referendum. SNP did what was fair and proper, unionists will do anything they can to load the dice.

malcolmg

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, ahem. Letting people vote on the UK's future who are eligible to vote in General Elections is the most natural and obvious thing.

MD, cowardy custards , banning people as they are scared they get beaten.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, were those Englishmen not registered [or at least eligible] to vote in Scotland for the General Election?

I fail to see why you think it's loading the dice to prevent Frenchmen from voting on whether the UK stays in the EU. That's a barmy idea.

Plato

The obvious conclusion is that only SNP members are allowed to vote in a SIndy referendum

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, were those Englishmen not registered [or at least eligible] to vote in Scotland for the General Election?

I fail to see why you think it's loading the dice to prevent Frenchmen from voting on whether the UK stays in the EU. That's a barmy idea.

Fernando

A very interesting correlation, Plato. I assume he high Chinese figure fits with the Survation finding that most Buddhists supported the Tories (although the sample size is small).

calum

malcolmg said:

Alistair said:

I've been away, have we discussed the make up of the elctorate for the EU Ref?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11627618/EU-referendum-Foreigners-barred-from-historic-vote.html

It seems a bit rum that after getting all the EU citizens to vote No in IndyRef by telling them that they would be kicked out of Scotland if they voted Yes to Independence to then deny them a vote on the EU.

That's unionists for you, if they can enhance their chances they will use anything

A good example of how far they will go, was Ruth Davidson's "burly blokes" tweet:

https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonmsp/status/596286509629763584

The tweet is still in Ruth's twitter feed. As far as I can tell the MSM in no way tried to hold Ruth to account on this. At the end of the day there seem to be two options:

1. Did she just make it up ?
2. Did she hear a rumour and tweeted without checking ?

I wonder what impact, if any, this misleading tweet had on Mundell's seat.

NickPalmer

FPT: It feels about right to me. Second (or third) generation ethnic voters tend to be less inclined to follow a community leader recommendation of any variety (which is normally a good thing for integration, though it means that radical fashions are harder to squash by just getting the community leaders to condemn them).

Controlling the results by other factors like income and occupation would I suspect show smaller differences from non-ethnic minority voters than many people would expect. In my area you could predict voting intention by the ward better than by the ethnic group: a Muslim family in a wealthy area might well be Tory.

On the Labour leadership, I'm surprised so many people are lining up passionately already - BigJohn and Danny even threatening resignation if the wrong person wins. I don't think we know enough about the candidates' platforms and approach yet. Will AB pursue a core vote or strike out in new directions, as he's shown he's able to in the past? Will LK prove as fluent in debate as she did in one interview, and is she a Blairite or just showing independence? What are YC's distinctive policy views? Dunno, and reserving judgment for now.

malcolmg

Plato said:

The obvious conclusion is that only SNP members are allowed to vote in a SIndy referendum

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, were those Englishmen not registered [or at least eligible] to vote in Scotland for the General Election?

I fail to see why you think it's loading the dice to prevent Frenchmen from voting on whether the UK stays in the EU. That's a barmy idea.

Plato, that sounds like a good idea , but only unionists would have the brass neck to implement it.

MaxPB

Where are Labour's BAME champions like Surbiton here to tell us that their Muslim vote strategy is not going to have any negative consequences.

As I said in the previous topic, Christian Africans and Christian/Orthodox Eastern Europeans are the next groups that will help the Tories. Both groups are very similar to non-Muslim Asians and East Asians in that they value hard work, entrepreneurship and success over identity politics. For Christian Africans, Labour's Muslim vote policies will actively push them towards the Tories as the only other credible party, many of them have escaped from Islamofascist regimes or from Islamic terrorism in their home countries and recognise Labour's policies for Muslims as dangerous.

Until Labour get rid of people like Sadiq Khan from their party and Ken Livingstone they will continue to lose non-Muslim BAME votes to the Tories now that this false idea that they (we!) are a racist party has been consigned to the dustbin of the history books. I expect Labour and their media allies (Guardian, Mirror, BBC) to ramp up the rhetoric after DC that whichever new leader has racist tendencies and hates people who aren't white because they must sense the danger by now.

Identity politics only works for those who see themselves as victims of something. Non-Muslim Asians, Christian Africans and Eastern Europeans do not fit into that agenda Labour are pushing, they all want to get on in life and make something of themselves. Even if the system works against them in some cases they will still try anyway rather than stay home and moan about how hard life is and how the world hates them and end up in Syria or Iraq.

SouthamObserver

MarqueeMark said:

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

You'd like to think it wasn't just because Labour is so closely associated with the Muslims, but there's that nagging doubt....

How does that explain Labour's lead among Christians?

Surely it just reflects wider trends that have nothing to do with skin colour or religion: the more affluent you are, the more you are likely to vote Tory. And Sikhs and Hindus tend to be better off than African and West Indian Christians, or Asian and African Moslems.

malcolmg

calum said:

malcolmg said:

Alistair said:

I've been away, have we discussed the make up of the elctorate for the EU Ref?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11627618/EU-referendum-Foreigners-barred-from-historic-vote.html

It seems a bit rum that after getting all the EU citizens to vote No in IndyRef by telling them that they would be kicked out of Scotland if they voted Yes to Independence to then deny them a vote on the EU.

That's unionists for you, if they can enhance their chances they will use anything

A good example of how far they will go, was Ruth Davidson's "burly blokes" tweet:

https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonmsp/status/596286509629763584

The tweet is still in Ruth's twitter feed. As far as I can tell the MSM in no way tried to hold Ruth to account on this. At the end of the day there seem to be two options:

1. Did she just make it up ?
2. Did she hear a rumour and tweeted without checking ?

I wonder what impact, if any, this misleading tweet had on Mundell's seat.

They really are a rum bunch altogether, all 3 Unionist parties in Scotland are full of scoundrels, even if the Panda Party is bigger than any of them.

Plato

OT On FPT I mentioned how slow Bloodlines TV show is. Well, I've endured all 13 episodes and frankly 80% was boring. I could've watched the first show, then skipped the next 10. I wish I had. 4/10. It's getting 8.4 on IMDb right now - and comparisons with True Detective. I just don't see it myself.

felix

SouthamObserver said:

The morning after the night before and it's clear that much of Spain has turned sharply left. The Partido Popular has seen its vote share decline significantly, while Podemos-backed groups could well end up running Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Valladolid (!!) and many other big cities. Corruption scandals have really hurt the PP, as has the deep austerity. A general election is due by year end; if this result is repeated it will reverberate across the Eurozone. All the southern European countries, it seems, are looking leftwards. The EU is potentially facing a huge crisis. Greece may be containable, but throw in Spain, Italy and Portugal, and the stakes are raised massively. I am off to Barcelona today and Madrid later in the week. Stay tuned for further reports.

That the Catalan nationalists did not hold Barcelona may be the most significant result of all. This time a year ago they were carrying all before them.

Spain has not turned sharply left - much of the decline in the PP vote has gone to the centre -right party, Ciudadnos. The Socialist vote is also down as some of their support has moved to Podemos. The PP still topped the poll overall and although well below the levels of 2011 is actually up on their scores of a year ago. There could still be a left victory at the end of the year but it is equally likely that we could end up with a centre-right coalition if the current swing-back continues. I think this is quite likely as the economy is much improved on a year ago and Spain is now the fastest growing economy in the EU.

MaxPB

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

You'd like to think it wasn't just because Labour is so closely associated with the Muslims, but there's that nagging doubt....

How does that explain Labour's lead among Christians?

Surely it just reflects wider trends that have nothing to do with skin colour or religion: the more affluent you are, the more you are likely to vote Tory. And Sikhs and Hindus tend to be better off than African and West Indian Christians, or Asian and African Moslems.

African Christians will be voting Tory by the end of this decade. Their attitude to life is one of wanting to get on and be successful. Not perpetual victimhood.

MattW

malcolmg said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Alistair, the SNP wanted to fiddle with those eligible to vote in the referendum by allowing those who are just 16 and 17 to vote. You can't complain about their requests being granted.

It's entirely correct to have the vote on the EU limited to those eligible to vote in a General Election.

Edited extra bit: it wasn't super-offensive, but I've slightly moderated the above post as it was a shade intemperate.

MD if that had been the case the SNP would not have had English people voting in the referendum. SNP did what was fair and proper, unionists will do anything they can to load the dice.

Nice try, Malc :-).

But you can't ascribe to the SNP's fairness and propriety something that was actually specified by the text of the Edinburgh Agreement:

"9. The Referendum Bill introduced by the Scottish Government will create a franchise for the referendum. Both governments agree that all those entitled to vote 3 in Scottish Parliamentary and local government elections should be able to vote in the referendum. "

http://www.gov.scot/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence#The Scottish Parliamentary franchise

SquareRoot

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

You'd like to think it wasn't just because Labour is so closely associated with the Muslims, but there's that nagging doubt....

How does that explain Labour's lead among Christians?

Surely it just reflects wider trends that have nothing to do with skin colour or religion: the more affluent you are, the more you are likely to vote Tory. And Sikhs and Hindus tend to be better off than African and West Indian Christians, or Asian and African Moslems.

Welby and his team sent out that missive to all churches virtually inviting christians to vote Labour. The whole thing was an utter disgrace.

https://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2015/02/house-of-bishops'-pastoral-letter-on-the-2015-general-election.aspx

foxinsoxuk

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, were those Englishmen not registered [or at least eligible] to vote in Scotland for the General Election?

I fail to see why you think it's loading the dice to prevent Frenchmen from voting on whether the UK stays in the EU. That's a barmy idea.

Migration Observatory have some interesting stats on where naturalisations come from in table 1:

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/naturalisation-british-citizen-concepts-and-trends

Interesting to see the Phillipines in 3rd place, ahead of Nigeria or Bangladesh, and while Poles are still a relatively small number they are the fastest growing sector.

There is a five year residency rule for naturalisation, so the A8 migrants of a decade are now eligible to apply for British naturalisation. If there is a serious threat of Brexit then I would expect this number to rapidly increase.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Root, the Archsocialist was and is an utter arse. Having bishops getting involved in electioneering is backwards. We don't need more religion in party political campaigning.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Foxinsox, useful to know.

Theuniondivvie

Alistair said:

I've been away, have we discussed the make up of the elctorate for the EU Ref?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11627618/EU-referendum-Foreigners-barred-from-historic-vote.html

It seems a bit rum that after getting all the EU citizens to vote No in IndyRef by telling them that they would be kicked out of Scotland if they voted Yes to Independence to then deny them a vote on the EU.

Interesting difference in mindset also. To the Tele they're 'foreigners', during the Indy ref it was 'you want to live here, you're Scottish and entitled to vote'.
Narrow nationalists, eh?

TheWhiteRabbit

A win for Duda in Poland is apparently good news for Cameron as long as it translates into success for the Law and Justice Party at parliamentary elections later this year. The party is opposed to further EU integration, ran a campaign against the Euro, and believes Poland is too deferential to German interests. It is however still unlikely to negotiate away migrant benefits too easily. But it is easier to see how a compromise might lie.

AlastairMeeks

The Conservatives have been aided enormously in the pursuit of ethnic minority votes by the rise of UKIP. Without doing anything, they instantly look less unwelcoming to ethnic minority voters.

The Conservatives have a long way to go, however, and need to take far more meaningful steps to look friendly to BME voters.

And I remain just a bit wary of any findings based on opinion polls for now.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Divvie, are you saying Frenchman aren't foreigners?

Casino_Royale

The figures for London are very similar to those for England.

If true, then this might mean that London is more competitive for the Conservatives in the medium-long term than previously thought.

Plato

I entirely disagree. The Tories shouldn't be playing in the poisonous waters of racial politics at all.

antifrank said:

The Conservatives have been aided enormously in the pursuit of ethnic minority votes by the rise of UKIP. Without doing anything, they instantly look less unwelcoming to ethnic minority voters.

The Conservatives have a long way to go, however, and need to take far more meaningful steps to look friendly to BME voters.

And I remain just a bit wary of any findings based on opinion polls for now.

TheWhiteRabbit

Plato said:

I entirely disagree. The Tories shouldn't be playing in the poisonous waters of racial politics at all.

antifrank said:

The Conservatives have been aided enormously in the pursuit of ethnic minority votes by the rise of UKIP. Without doing anything, they instantly look less unwelcoming to ethnic minority voters.

The Conservatives have a long way to go, however, and need to take far more meaningful steps to look friendly to BME voters.

And I remain just a bit wary of any findings based on opinion polls for now.

Who says poisonous? The Tories can reach out positively, emphasising similarities and not differences.

DecrepitJohnL

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

You'd like to think it wasn't just because Labour is so closely associated with the Muslims, but there's that nagging doubt....

How does that explain Labour's lead among Christians?

Surely it just reflects wider trends that have nothing to do with skin colour or religion: the more affluent you are, the more you are likely to vote Tory. And Sikhs and Hindus tend to be better off than African and West Indian Christians, or Asian and African Moslems.

Welby and his team sent out that missive to all churches virtually inviting christians to vote Labour. The whole thing was an utter disgrace.

https://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2015/02/house-of-bishops'-pastoral-letter-on-the-2015-general-election.aspx

Old Etonian Justin Welby became Archbishop of Canterbury in 2011, so I doubt it was Gordon Brown who recommended his appointment.

AlastairMeeks

Plato said:

I entirely disagree. The Tories shouldn't be playing in the poisonous waters of racial politics at all.

antifrank said:

The Conservatives have been aided enormously in the pursuit of ethnic minority votes by the rise of UKIP. Without doing anything, they instantly look less unwelcoming to ethnic minority voters.

The Conservatives have a long way to go, however, and need to take far more meaningful steps to look friendly to BME voters.

And I remain just a bit wary of any findings based on opinion polls for now.

This Economist article from before the election illustrates what I was getting at:

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21644161-conservatives-have-tried-woo-ethnic-minority-voters-and-failed-david-camerons-many

calum

Looks like Carmichael's SPAD may have been a bit loose lipped:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/602773182978883585

On the EU voting eligibility, as this is probably a once in a generation vote I think 16 & 17 year olds should be given the right to vote. Bringing in most of the 2 million Brits living mainly in Spain and France will certainly boost up the IN vote, again Cameron appears to have played a blinder !!

Theuniondivvie

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, are you saying Frenchman aren't foreigners?

Not if they want to live, work and bring up their family in my country.
Still, it's heartwarming that certain types now have to consider a newly arrived Nigerian or Irishman in the UK as *not* foreign.

Plato

I'm as blind as I can be to someone's skin colour [we're all a bit racist] - so why should a Party want to show any bias towards any one grouping based on their race?

I find it repellent. It's not about similarities or differences to ignore skin colour or ethnic origin = it's making it a non-issue. Which like justice should be blind politically.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Plato said:

I entirely disagree. The Tories shouldn't be playing in the poisonous waters of racial politics at all.

antifrank said:

The Conservatives have been aided enormously in the pursuit of ethnic minority votes by the rise of UKIP. Without doing anything, they instantly look less unwelcoming to ethnic minority voters.

The Conservatives have a long way to go, however, and need to take far more meaningful steps to look friendly to BME voters.

And I remain just a bit wary of any findings based on opinion polls for now.

Who says poisonous? The Tories can reach out positively, emphasising similarities and not differences.

notme

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

You'd like to think it wasn't just because Labour is so closely associated with the Muslims, but there's that nagging doubt....

How does that explain Labour's lead among Christians?

Surely it just reflects wider trends that have nothing to do with skin colour or religion: the more affluent you are, the more you are likely to vote Tory. And Sikhs and Hindus tend to be better off than African and West Indian Christians, or Asian and African Moslems.

African Christians will be voting Tory by the end of this decade. Their attitude to life is one of wanting to get on and be successful. Not perpetual victimhood.

And they (west africans, who predominate in the UK) hold a significant proportion of values that used to be called right wing but are now unfashionable. Illegitimacy is deeply frowned on, and will in many cases result in being excluded from the family. Corporal punishment of children is seen as a good in itself. "how will a child know what is good and bad if you do not beat it?"

This extends to schooling. Beat them, beat them, and beat them again. Even a wife can expect her punishment if she is sufficiently disrespectful. And their views on homosexuality, even amongst those who are of the more liberal perspective, is best described as revulsion.

Oh, and the one group of people in the world that African christians (and muslims) can unite against in their distaste....

Who can guess?

SouthamObserver

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

The morning after the night before and it's clear that much of Spain has turned sharply left. The Partido Popular has seen its vote share decline significantly, while Podemos-backed groups could well end up running Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Valladolid (!!) and many other big cities. Corruption scandals have really hurt the PP, as has the deep austerity. A general election is due by year end; if this result is repeated it will reverberate across the Eurozone. All the southern European countries, it seems, are looking leftwards. The EU is potentially facing a huge crisis. Greece may be containable, but throw in Spain, Italy and Portugal, and the stakes are raised massively. I am off to Barcelona today and Madrid later in the week. Stay tuned for further reports.

That the Catalan nationalists did not hold Barcelona may be the most significant result of all. This time a year ago they were carrying all before them.

Spain has not turned sharply left - much of the decline in the PP vote has gone to the centre -right party, Ciudadnos. The Socialist vote is also down as some of their support has moved to Podemos. The PP still topped the poll overall and although well below the levels of 2011 is actually up on their scores of a year ago. There could still be a left victory at the end of the year but it is equally likely that we could end up with a centre-right coalition if the current swing-back continues. I think this is quite likely as the economy is much improved on a year ago and Spain is now the fastest growing economy in the EU.

Ciudadanos could well end up in coalition with PSOE after the elections. Across Spain, the left has made major gains. It's there in black and white.

notme

antifrank said:

The Conservatives have been aided enormously in the pursuit of ethnic minority votes by the rise of UKIP. Without doing anything, they instantly look less unwelcoming to ethnic minority voters.

The Conservatives have a long way to go, however, and need to take far more meaningful steps to look friendly to BME voters.

And I remain just a bit wary of any findings based on opinion polls for now.

Yes, friendly. But i plead with them not to fall into the Labour trap of stuffing their mouths with gold. You can never win that race.

ThomasNashe

calum said:

Looks like Carmichael's SPAD may have been a bit loose lipped:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/602773182978883585

On the EU voting eligibility, as this is probably a once in a generation vote I think 16 & 17 year olds should be given the right to vote. Bringing in most of the 2 million Brits living mainly in Spain and France will certainly boost up the IN vote, again Cameron appears to have played a blinder !!

He's right. Carmichael should have used his time in cabinet to learn from the master, 'submarine' George, how to cover his traces.

foxinsoxuk

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

You'd like to think it wasn't just because Labour is so closely associated with the Muslims, but there's that nagging doubt....

How does that explain Labour's lead among Christians?

Surely it just reflects wider trends that have nothing to do with skin colour or religion: the more affluent you are, the more you are likely to vote Tory. And Sikhs and Hindus tend to be better off than African and West Indian Christians, or Asian and African Moslems.

Welby and his team sent out that missive to all churches virtually inviting christians to vote Labour. The whole thing was an utter disgrace.

https://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2015/02/house-of-bishops'-pastoral-letter-on-the-2015-general-election.aspx

But most BAME Christians are not Church of England, more likely to be Pentacostal etc.

Most will be West Indian, and to a lesser extent, Black African in origin. I think that education and social class probably accounts for most of the Lab/Con split. Indeed if the Survation table was weighted for social class then as Nick P implies much of the differences from white Britons would disappear or become trivial.

We are all individuals, but age, gender, SE class, education and public vs private sector employment are pretty good predictors of voting.

malcolmg

MattW said:

malcolmg said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Alistair, the SNP wanted to fiddle with those eligible to vote in the referendum by allowing those who are just 16 and 17 to vote. You can't complain about their requests being granted.

It's entirely correct to have the vote on the EU limited to those eligible to vote in a General Election.

Edited extra bit: it wasn't super-offensive, but I've slightly moderated the above post as it was a shade intemperate.

MD if that had been the case the SNP would not have had English people voting in the referendum. SNP did what was fair and proper, unionists will do anything they can to load the dice.

Nice try, Malc :-).

But you can't ascribe to the SNP's fairness and propriety something that was actually specified by the text of the Edinburgh Agreement:

"9. The Referendum Bill introduced by the Scottish Government will create a franchise for the referendum. Both governments agree that all those entitled to vote 3 in Scottish Parliamentary and local government elections should be able to vote in the referendum. "

http://www.gov.scot/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence#The Scottish Parliamentary franchise

Matt, just window dressing , if the unionists could have managed it they would have limited voting to Westminster MP's and LOL only to be sure of winning.

OblitusSumMe

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, are you saying Frenchman aren't foreigners?

If Churchill (peace be upon him) had had his way we'd be living in a harmonious Anglo-French Union.

Sunil_Prasannan

O/T

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/#line-raillo-overground

From 31 May 2015, TfL will take over some existing services, stations and trains from Abellio Greater Anglia.

TfL Rail services will operate on the Liverpool Street to Shenfield route.

London Overground services will operate on the: Liverpool Street to Enfield Town, Cheshunt via Seven Sisters, and Chingford route; and Romford to Upminster route.

NB. The TfL Rail service is operational from 1 June.

Sunil_Prasannan

Ooops - I voted Labour!

Please! I like America the Tory Party!

(I voted for Boris in 2012, and Tory in the 2014 Locals!)

foxinsoxuk

antifrank said:

The Conservatives have been aided enormously in the pursuit of ethnic minority votes by the rise of UKIP. Without doing anything, they instantly look less unwelcoming to ethnic minority voters.

The Conservatives have a long way to go, however, and need to take far more meaningful steps to look friendly to BME voters.

And I remain just a bit wary of any findings based on opinion polls for now.

The people in this poll do seem unusually politically engaged. 79% voted, though 1% cannot remember how they voted just a fortnight ago!

Sunil_Prasannan

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, are you saying Frenchman aren't foreigners?

If Churchill (peace be upon him) had had his way we'd be living in a harmonious Anglo-French Union.

There was Plan G too - EU nations joining the Commonwealth!

(NB. English is an official language of the current 28-nation EU!)

notme

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ooops - I voted Labour!

Please! I like America the Tory Party!

(I voted for Boris in 2012, and Tory in the 2014 Locals!)

Was there a reason that made you switch?

felix

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

The morning after the night before and it's clear that much of Spain has turned sharply left. The Partido Popular has seen its vote share decline significantly, while Podemos-backed groups could well end up running Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Valladolid (!!) and many other big cities. Corruption scandals have really hurt the PP, as has the deep austerity. A general election is due by year end; if this result is repeated it will reverberate across the Eurozone. All the southern European countries, it seems, are looking leftwards. The EU is potentially facing a huge crisis. Greece may be containable, but throw in Spain, Italy and Portugal, and the stakes are raised massively. I am off to Barcelona today and Madrid later in the week. Stay tuned for further reports.

That the Catalan nationalists did not hold Barcelona may be the most significant result of all. This time a year ago they were carrying all before them.

Spain has not turned sharply left - much of the decline in the PP vote has gone to the centre -right party, Ciudadnos. The Socialist vote is also down as some of their support has moved to Podemos. The PP still topped the poll overall and although well below the levels of 2011 is actually up on their scores of a year ago. There could still be a left victory at the end of the year but it is equally likely that we could end up with a centre-right coalition if the current swing-back continues. I think this is quite likely as the economy is much improved on a year ago and Spain is now the fastest growing economy in the EU.

Ciudadanos could well end up in coalition with PSOE after the elections. Across Spain, the left has made major gains. It's there in black and white.

Possibly - but you need to look at the most recent comparators:

March 2015 Andalucia Comunidad Election result:

PSOE 35%
PP 26%
Pod 14%
CIUD 9%

Last night Andalucia Comunidad local election results

PSOE 25%
PP 27%
Pod - not contesting - if they were would be mainly at the expense of PSOE.
CIUD 6.5%

The PP is of course well down on 2011 but it is up slightly from a few months ago and the PSOE is going nowhere fast. There is virtually no chance of Spain going sharply to the left as in Greece - we are just as likely to get a centre-right coalition, which given the progress on the economy over the past yaer would be the best result for the country.

Plato

Those are I Can't Believe I'm A Tory voters

foxinsoxuk said:

antifrank said:

The Conservatives have been aided enormously in the pursuit of ethnic minority votes by the rise of UKIP. Without doing anything, they instantly look less unwelcoming to ethnic minority voters.

The Conservatives have a long way to go, however, and need to take far more meaningful steps to look friendly to BME voters.

And I remain just a bit wary of any findings based on opinion polls for now.

The people in this poll do seem unusually politically engaged. 79% voted, though 1% cannot remember how they voted just a fortnight ago!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Me, ah, the Angevin Empire.

Incidentally, last night there was an outrageous lack of self-awareness on the BBC.

Jon Simpson, reporting on ISIS and the Iraqi government, said the latter was bad at getting out any good news. He said that an important oil town had been retaken recently, but that hardly anybody knew about that.

If only we had a state-funded broadcaster with a journalist on the ground whose ****ing job it was to inform the public about current events, eh?

MattW

malcolmg said:

MattW said:

malcolmg said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Alistair, the SNP wanted to fiddle with those eligible to vote in the referendum by allowing those who are just 16 and 17 to vote. You can't complain about their requests being granted.

It's entirely correct to have the vote on the EU limited to those eligible to vote in a General Election.

Edited extra bit: it wasn't super-offensive, but I've slightly moderated the above post as it was a shade intemperate.

MD if that had been the case the SNP would not have had English people voting in the referendum. SNP did what was fair and proper, unionists will do anything they can to load the dice.

Nice try, Malc :-).

But you can't ascribe to the SNP's fairness and propriety something that was actually specified by the text of the Edinburgh Agreement:

"9. The Referendum Bill introduced by the Scottish Government will create a franchise for the referendum. Both governments agree that all those entitled to vote 3 in Scottish Parliamentary and local government elections should be able to vote in the referendum. "

http://www.gov.scot/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence#The Scottish Parliamentary franchise

Matt, just window dressing , if the unionists could have managed it they would have limited voting to Westminster MP's and LOL only to be sure of winning.

You just vanished up your own conspiracy theory.

I'm off for a walk.

foxinsoxuk

This was also interesting on the Survation site:

It was the kippers wot won it for Dave:

http://survation.com/how-did-ukips-rise-affect-the-labconlib-dem-seats-position/

Plato

Great chart there http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Where-did-the-Labour-supporters-go-Website-885x1024.png

foxinsoxuk said:

This was also interesting on the Survation site:

It was the kippers wot won it for Dave:

http://survation.com/how-did-ukips-rise-affect-the-labconlib-dem-seats-position/

foxinsoxuk

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Me, ah, the Angevin Empire.

Incidentally, last night there was an outrageous lack of self-awareness on the BBC.

Jon Simpson, reporting on ISIS and the Iraqi government, said the latter was bad at getting out any good news. He said that an important oil town had been retaken recently, but that hardly anybody knew about that.

If only we had a state-funded broadcaster with a journalist on the ground whose ****ing job it was to inform the public about current events, eh?

Ramadan starts in less than a month. Its going to be a tough one in the desert heat for fighters.

felix

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

The morning after the night before and it's clear that much of Spain has turned sharply left. The Partido Popular has seen its vote share decline significantly, while Podemos-backed groups could well end up running Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Valladolid (!!) and many other big cities. Corruption scandals have really hurt the PP, as has the deep austerity. A general election is due by year end; if this result is repeated it will reverberate across the Eurozone. All the southern European countries, it seems, are looking leftwards. The EU is potentially facing a huge crisis. Greece may be containable, but throw in Spain, Italy and Portugal, and the stakes are raised massively. I am off to Barcelona today and Madrid later in the week. Stay tuned for further reports.

That the Catalan nationalists did not hold Barcelona may be the most significant result of all. This time a year ago they were carrying all before them.

Spain has not turned sharply left - much of the decline in the PP vote has gone to the centre -right party, Ciudadnos. The Socialist vote is also down as some of their support has moved to Podemos. The PP still topped the poll overall and although well below the levels of 2011 is actually up on their scores of a year ago. There could still be a left victory at the end of the year but it is equally likely that we could end up with a centre-right coalition if the current swing-back continues. I think this is quite likely as the economy is much improved on a year ago and Spain is now the fastest growing economy in the EU.

Ciudadanos could well end up in coalition with PSOE after the elections. Across Spain, the left has made major gains. It's there in black and white.

Possibly - but you need to look at the most recent comparators:

March 2015 Andalucia Comunidad Election result:

PSOE 35%
PP 26%
Pod 14%
CIUD 9%

Last night Andalucia Comunidad local election results

PSOE 34%
PP 30%
Pod - not contesting - if they were would be mainly at the expense of PSOE.
CIUD 6.5%

The PP is of course well down on 2011 but it is up slightly from a few months ago and the PSOE is going nowhere fast. There is virtually no chance of Spain going sharply to the left as in Greece - we are just as likely to get a centre-right coalition, which given the progress on the economy over the past yaer would be the best result for the country.

Apologies - have corrected yesterday's figures - but the point remains the same PSOE slipping and PP rising since March.

JohnLilburne

Sunil_Prasannan said:

O/T

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/#line-raillo-overground

From 31 May 2015, TfL will take over some existing services, stations and trains from Abellio Greater Anglia.

TfL Rail services will operate on the Liverpool Street to Shenfield route.

London Overground services will operate on the: Liverpool Street to Enfield Town, Cheshunt via Seven Sisters, and Chingford route; and Romford to Upminster route.

NB. The TfL Rail service is operational from 1 June.

So what will happen at Shenfield, for example? Will TfL be running trains just to Shenfield? At the moment all or most go on to Ipswich or Southend. Are there already Shenfield-only services? I thought it was somewhere you only go to to change trains? Or will Abellio trains run fast to/from Shenfield meaning people have to change for stations closer to London?

scotslass

Morris_Dancer

A General Election franchise includes Irish people and Maltesers. That being the case it is wide open to legal action to exclude other European citizens aand action there will certainly be.

At the end of the day it will highlight that nasty Torygraph tendancy of us and them which will do the Conservative Party great damage. The contrast with Scotland and the SNP is a stark one which shows the civic minded Scots in a good light.

foxinsoxuk

Plato said:

Great chart there http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Where-did-the-Labour-supporters-go-Website-885x1024.png

foxinsoxuk said:

This was also interesting on the Survation site:

It was the kippers wot won it for Dave:

http://survation.com/how-did-ukips-rise-affect-the-labconlib-dem-seats-position/

Those Labour voters in London who turned Blue, may well have been BAME...

scotslass

calum said:

Looks like Carmichael's SPAD may have been a bit loose lipped:

The significance of the McColm tweet is that it provides evidence that Carmichael was indeed an MP when he authorised the leaking and therefore puts him bang in line for standards investigation.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Lass, by that logic, you would argue for any EU citizen being eligible to vote in the UK General Election.

As it happens, I agree we should further curtail the electorate to exclude those who aren't British citizens. But that's not an argument for letting Frenchmen vote on the future of the UK.

JosiasJessop

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

O/T

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/#line-raillo-overground

From 31 May 2015, TfL will take over some existing services, stations and trains from Abellio Greater Anglia.

TfL Rail services will operate on the Liverpool Street to Shenfield route.

London Overground services will operate on the: Liverpool Street to Enfield Town, Cheshunt via Seven Sisters, and Chingford route; and Romford to Upminster route.

NB. The TfL Rail service is operational from 1 June.

So what will happen at Shenfield, for example? Will TfL be running trains just to Shenfield? At the moment all or most go on to Ipswich or Southend. Are there already Shenfield-only services? I thought it was somewhere you only go to to change trains? Or will Abellio trains run fast to/from Shenfield meaning people have to change for stations closer to London?

I presume this is because in a few years Shenfield will be the eastern terminus of Crossrail, which comes under TfL's remit.

According to the following, six trains per hour (almost half the total) terminate at Shenfield. I assume these are the ones that TfL will be taking over, and the ones that go further into Essex will be unaffected.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenfield_railway_station

OblitusSumMe

scotslass said:

Morris_Dancer

A General Election franchise includes Irish people and Maltesers. That being the case it is wide open to legal action to exclude other European citizens aand action there will certainly be.

At the end of the day it will highlight that nasty Torygraph tendancy of us and them which will do the Conservative Party great damage. The contrast with Scotland and the SNP is a stark one which shows the civic minded Scots in a good light.

If you wanted to encourage an out vote the way to do it would be with a legal action attempting to force Britain to allow Europeans to vote in the referendum.

Using the general election franchise is as obvious as using the Holyrood franchise for the Scottish independence referendum.

felix

scotslass said:

Morris_Dancer

A General Election franchise includes Irish people and Maltesers. That being the case it is wide open to legal action to exclude other European citizens aand action there will certainly be.

At the end of the day it will highlight that nasty Torygraph tendancy of us and them which will do the Conservative Party great damage. The contrast with Scotland and the SNP is a stark one which shows the civic minded Scots in a good light.

I think you are wrong there. I live in Spain and can only vote here in Local elections and EU Elections but in no other Spanish Community/National elections or referenda. It's pretty much the norm. Your words about the SNP is a load of old garbage. You need to ditch the halo and get real. UK GE was won by the Conservatives and Scotland voted recently in a referendum to be a part of the UK. You need to accept the democratic will of those lovely civic minded Scots and move on.

foxinsoxuk

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Lass, by that logic, you would argue for any EU citizen being eligible to vote in the UK General Election.

As it happens, I agree we should further curtail the electorate to exclude those who aren't British citizens. But that's not an argument for letting Frenchmen vote on the future of the UK.

I would too. We have a pretty open naturalisation system that allows dual nationality. I would be prepared to allow Irish citizens to vote if they have been resident 5 years, but why should commonwealth citizens have the right to vote as soon as they have set foot in the country?

JohnLilburne

JosiasJessop said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

O/T

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/#line-raillo-overground

From 31 May 2015, TfL will take over some existing services, stations and trains from Abellio Greater Anglia.

TfL Rail services will operate on the Liverpool Street to Shenfield route.

London Overground services will operate on the: Liverpool Street to Enfield Town, Cheshunt via Seven Sisters, and Chingford route; and Romford to Upminster route.

NB. The TfL Rail service is operational from 1 June.

So what will happen at Shenfield, for example? Will TfL be running trains just to Shenfield? At the moment all or most go on to Ipswich or Southend. Are there already Shenfield-only services? I thought it was somewhere you only go to to change trains? Or will Abellio trains run fast to/from Shenfield meaning people have to change for stations closer to London?

I presume this is because in a few years Shenfield will be the eastern terminus of Crossrail, which comes under TfL's remit.

According to the following, six trains per hour (almost half the total) terminate at Shenfield. I assume these are the ones that TfL will be taking over, and the ones that go further into Essex will be unaffected.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenfield_railway_station

I didn't realise there is such a big terminating service, but then it is a while since I lived in that neck of the woods. I have been to Chelmsford by train a few times recently and don't recall seeing many trains signed for Shenfield but then you tend to concentrate on the train you need to catch.

Sunil_Prasannan

JosiasJessop said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

O/T

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/#line-raillo-overground

From 31 May 2015, TfL will take over some existing services, stations and trains from Abellio Greater Anglia.

TfL Rail services will operate on the Liverpool Street to Shenfield route.

London Overground services will operate on the: Liverpool Street to Enfield Town, Cheshunt via Seven Sisters, and Chingford route; and Romford to Upminster route.

NB. The TfL Rail service is operational from 1 June.

So what will happen at Shenfield, for example? Will TfL be running trains just to Shenfield? At the moment all or most go on to Ipswich or Southend. Are there already Shenfield-only services? I thought it was somewhere you only go to to change trains? Or will Abellio trains run fast to/from Shenfield meaning people have to change for stations closer to London?

I presume this is because in a few years Shenfield will be the eastern terminus of Crossrail, which comes under TfL's remit.

According to the following, six trains per hour (almost half the total) terminate at Shenfield. I assume these are the ones that TfL will be taking over, and the ones that go further into Essex will be unaffected.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenfield_railway_station

Yes, the slow "metro" service through Stratford/Ilford/Romford is to be run by TfL (later CrossRail).

franklyn

scotslass said:

calum said:

Looks like Carmichael's SPAD may have been a bit loose lipped:

The significance of the McColm tweet is that it provides evidence that Carmichael was indeed an MP when he authorised the leaking and therefore puts him bang in line for standards investigation.

If all politicians who lied were kicked out they would be thin on the ground

SandyRentool

JohnLilburne said:

JosiasJessop said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

O/T

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/#line-raillo-overground

From 31 May 2015, TfL will take over some existing services, stations and trains from Abellio Greater Anglia.

TfL Rail services will operate on the Liverpool Street to Shenfield route.

London Overground services will operate on the: Liverpool Street to Enfield Town, Cheshunt via Seven Sisters, and Chingford route; and Romford to Upminster route.

NB. The TfL Rail service is operational from 1 June.

So what will happen at Shenfield, for example? Will TfL be running trains just to Shenfield? At the moment all or most go on to Ipswich or Southend. Are there already Shenfield-only services? I thought it was somewhere you only go to to change trains? Or will Abellio trains run fast to/from Shenfield meaning people have to change for stations closer to London?

I presume this is because in a few years Shenfield will be the eastern terminus of Crossrail, which comes under TfL's remit.

According to the following, six trains per hour (almost half the total) terminate at Shenfield. I assume these are the ones that TfL will be taking over, and the ones that go further into Essex will be unaffected.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenfield_railway_station

I didn't realise there is such a big terminating service, but then it is a while since I lived in that neck of the woods. I have been to Chelmsford by train a few times recently and don't recall seeing many trains signed for Shenfield but then you tend to concentrate on the train you need to catch.

I remember the name 'Shenfield Rattler' being used in the past. Presumably that referred to the crappy old stock on the terminating services.

Sean_F

antifrank said:

The Conservatives have been aided enormously in the pursuit of ethnic minority votes by the rise of UKIP. Without doing anything, they instantly look less unwelcoming to ethnic minority voters.

The Conservatives have a long way to go, however, and need to take far more meaningful steps to look friendly to BME voters.

And I remain just a bit wary of any findings based on opinion polls for now.

If this poll is correct, then I think the Economist is wrong. It would suggest a rightward swing of 16% among ethnic minority voters, since 2010. By contrast, Ipsos Mori found 23% of BME voters supporting the Conservatives, an increase of 7%.

Peter Kellner has found that the Conservatives lead among East Asian voters.

I guess it comes down to upward mobility. 50 years ago, Jews were solid for Labour. Now, they're solid for the Tories. Of course, Ken Livingstone aided that shift in outlook.

It looks like the Tories don't need to advocate liberal immigration policies, in order to increase support.

malcolmg

MattW said:

malcolmg said:

MattW said:

malcolmg said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Alistair, the SNP wanted to fiddle with those eligible to vote in the referendum by allowing those who are just 16 and 17 to vote. You can't complain about their requests being granted.

It's entirely correct to have the vote on the EU limited to those eligible to vote in a General Election.

Edited extra bit: it wasn't super-offensive, but I've slightly moderated the above post as it was a shade intemperate.

MD if that had been the case the SNP would not have had English people voting in the referendum. SNP did what was fair and proper, unionists will do anything they can to load the dice.

Nice try, Malc :-).

But you can't ascribe to the SNP's fairness and propriety something that was actually specified by the text of the Edinburgh Agreement:

"9. The Referendum Bill introduced by the Scottish Government will create a franchise for the referendum. Both governments agree that all those entitled to vote 3 in Scottish Parliamentary and local government elections should be able to vote in the referendum. "

http://www.gov.scot/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence#The Scottish Parliamentary franchise

Matt, just window dressing , if the unionists could have managed it they would have limited voting to Westminster MP's and LOL only to be sure of winning.

You just vanished up your own conspiracy theory.

I'm off for a walk.

Lightweight, I have to paint the bathroom , what joy.

SandyRentool

SandyRentool said:

JohnLilburne said:

JosiasJessop said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

O/T

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/#line-raillo-overground

From 31 May 2015, TfL will take over some existing services, stations and trains from Abellio Greater Anglia.

TfL Rail services will operate on the Liverpool Street to Shenfield route.

London Overground services will operate on the: Liverpool Street to Enfield Town, Cheshunt via Seven Sisters, and Chingford route; and Romford to Upminster route.

NB. The TfL Rail service is operational from 1 June.

So what will happen at Shenfield, for example? Will TfL be running trains just to Shenfield? At the moment all or most go on to Ipswich or Southend. Are there already Shenfield-only services? I thought it was somewhere you only go to to change trains? Or will Abellio trains run fast to/from Shenfield meaning people have to change for stations closer to London?

I presume this is because in a few years Shenfield will be the eastern terminus of Crossrail, which comes under TfL's remit.

According to the following, six trains per hour (almost half the total) terminate at Shenfield. I assume these are the ones that TfL will be taking over, and the ones that go further into Essex will be unaffected.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenfield_railway_station

I didn't realise there is such a big terminating service, but then it is a while since I lived in that neck of the woods. I have been to Chelmsford by train a few times recently and don't recall seeing many trains signed for Shenfield but then you tend to concentrate on the train you need to catch.

I remember the name 'Shenfield Rattler' being used in the past. Presumably that referred to the crappy old stock on the terminating services.

Actually, didn't the cast-offs from Shenfield get transferred up to West Yorkshire when the local lines out of Leeds were electrified?

SquareRoot

DecrepitJohnL said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Fernando said:

Why do Hindus and Sikhs prefer the Tories?

You'd like to think it wasn't just because Labour is so closely associated with the Muslims, but there's that nagging doubt....

How does that explain Labour's lead among Christians?

Surely it just reflects wider trends that have nothing to do with skin colour or religion: the more affluent you are, the more you are likely to vote Tory. And Sikhs and Hindus tend to be better off than African and West Indian Christians, or Asian and African Moslems.

Welby and his team sent out that missive to all churches virtually inviting christians to vote Labour. The whole thing was an utter disgrace.

https://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2015/02/house-of-bishops'-pastoral-letter-on-the-2015-general-election.aspx

Old Etonian Justin Welby became Archbishop of Canterbury in 2011, so I doubt it was Gordon Brown who recommended his appointment.

It doesn't matter a toss who appointed him, its what he did, I am sure it upset huge numbers of parishioners. it is not the business of the C of E to stick its nose into politics

malcolmg

franklyn said:

scotslass said:

calum said:

Looks like Carmichael's SPAD may have been a bit loose lipped:

The significance of the McColm tweet is that it provides evidence that Carmichael was indeed an MP when he authorised the leaking and therefore puts him bang in line for standards investigation.

If all politicians who lied were kicked out they would be thin on the ground

There are liars and there are lowdown rattlesnake LibDem liars