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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour leadership. TV Hustings will give the unknowns a chance to shine

I sat in a pub in Croydon a couple of days before polling day after an evening canvassing with Clive. We agreed that we had a brilliant Labour candidate in Sarah Jones – but what about Ed Miliband and the doubts we had both heard on the doorsteps? What did Clive think?

Read the full story here

williamglenn

Mary Creagh didn't do herself any favours in her interview with Murnaghan today. In trying to sound loyal she managed to say that she didn't think she could have done better than Ed Miliband.

TheScreamingEagles

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

EPG

Lol... AltHistory Wiki link for Tony Blair! What could have been...

Moses_

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

felix

Fascinating how much seems to depend on Kendall beating the odds. Yet I'm entirely unconvinced she's got anything special to offer other than being largely unknown. Enormous clutching at straw methinks, even if she wins.

JosiasJessop

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Lewis's reaction'll be interesting, as will Mercedes'.

HYUFD

As I posted earlier today's Sunday Times yougov has Burnham leading amongst both Labour voters and all voters with Cooper second in both categories, however Kendal is second with Tory voters
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2g0umt985b/SundayTimesResults_150522_Website.pdf (see p4)

Moses_

JosiasJessop said:

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Lewis's reaction'll be interesting, as will Mercedes'.

Lauda just admitted it was a monumental mistake. Mercedes admit losing Lewis the GP.

I think I would do a "Top Gear" on someone to be honest if I were Hamilton

SimonStClare

Ed’s high point was Polly Toynbee’s endorsement, - really! as bad as that

Moses_

Moses_ said:

JosiasJessop said:

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Lewis's reaction'll be interesting, as will Mercedes'.

Lauda just admitted it was a monumental mistake. Mercedes admit losing Lewis the GP.

I think I would do a "Top Gear" on someone to be honest if I were Hamilton

Shakes hands well done Hamilton a true sportsman..he was robbed blindly on that. Fly on the wall time in the team meet afterwards.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

What's Latin for 'Year of Frustrated Betting Tips'?

At least there was a big twist at the end, though.

JosiasJessop

Moses_ said:

JosiasJessop said:

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Lewis's reaction'll be interesting, as will Mercedes'.

Lauda just admitted it was a monumental mistake. Mercedes admit losing Lewis the GP.

I think I would do a "Top Gear" on someone to be honest if I were Hamilton

That'd be the old Lewis of the late naughties. Hopefully he'll have grown up a little since then.

I wonder if there'll be a behind-the-scenes agreement for this cock-up to be reversed at a later race. Weren't there suspicions this happened last year between the two of them?

Moses_

JosiasJessop said:

Moses_ said:

JosiasJessop said:

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Lewis's reaction'll be interesting, as will Mercedes'.

Lauda just admitted it was a monumental mistake. Mercedes admit losing Lewis the GP.

I think I would do a "Top Gear" on someone to be honest if I were Hamilton

That'd be the old Lewis of the late naughties. Hopefully he'll have grown up a little since then.

I wonder if there'll be a behind-the-scenes agreement for this cock-up to be reversed at a later race. Weren't there suspicions this happened last year between the two of them?

Perhaps?
Hamilton just puts down the champagne bottles and walks away. I can hardly blame him.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, at Monza, I think you mean, following Spa. Rosberg was leading and locked up severely which kindly helped Hamilton through.

MTimT

Ouch!!! Ruth Marcus is very much a solid Democrat, and a Clintonista, but this article from her has to hurt Hillary:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/05/24/clintons_compulsive_speechifying_126697.html

Morris_Dancer

And BBC radio coverage comes to an end. First podium interviews I think I've ever listened to, cut off halfway through Vettel's bit, before Hamilton spoke.

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, at Monza, I think you mean, following Spa. Rosberg was leading and locked up severely which kindly helped Hamilton through.

Ah, I think that was it. Considering Mercedes are going to win the constructor's championship at a canter, they might see it as the 'right' thing to do. Although as Hamilton was two places behind, it would be hard to make the error equal.

Or perhaps they won't. I didn't see the podium (had to listen on the radio): did Rosberg celebrate a lot?

NickPalmer

FPT David H and others are surprised that Harriet has endorsed the referendum and wonders what happens if the winning candidate disagrees. In fact, both Burnham and Kendall have endorsed the referendum - not sure about the others but I expect they'll go along. (I don't agree, but so what.) Mainstream British politics is so much leader-driven these days that it seems centuries ago that policy had to be decided by the party conference - even the supposedly democratic Greens turned policies on a sixpence during the campaign after the awkward interview with Neil.

Apart from the familiar arguments in principle (trust the people vs don't take a perceived risk for the country), there's the obvious point that it's going to happen, so Labour needs to take part.

HYUFD

TimT In the beltway maybe most voters will not notice, though I expect Sanders to pick up a few votes in the primary which she will otherwise cruise through

Danny565

Watching Harriet on Marr, the thought occurs that I wish I could vote for her in the leadership contest...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, no idea. From the comments in his interview, Rosberg did acknowledge he basically got lucky.

david_herdson

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Japan or Mercedes?

david_herdson

Moses_ said:

Moses_ said:

JosiasJessop said:

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Lewis's reaction'll be interesting, as will Mercedes'.

Lauda just admitted it was a monumental mistake. Mercedes admit losing Lewis the GP.

I think I would do a "Top Gear" on someone to be honest if I were Hamilton

Shakes hands well done Hamilton a true sportsman..he was robbed blindly on that. Fly on the wall time in the team meet afterwards.

To be fair, it wasn't Nico's fault. Rosberg was perhaps fortunate to have a Vettel cushion. Had Lewis been directly behind him, you could well imagine a Senna-like yahoo challenging Rosberg to yield or crash them both out.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Herdson, with the ultimate pace advantage, the Silver Arrows would've pulled a gap to Vettel, then swapped the cars, I think. Vettel prevented that being a viable strategy.

calum

Having gone to ground for the last few days Willie Rennie has finally surfaced in the LibDem Voice urging us all to give Carmichael a second chance,

http://www.libdemvoice.org/breakingwillie-rennie-i-hope-that-fair-minded-people-will-give-alistair-carmichael-a-second-chance-46095.html

I think if Carmichael had come clean on the 6th April when the Cabinet Office launched a leak investigation and thereby saved £1.4 million, then he would have had his second chance, I fear the O&S electorate would have sent him packing. As a Solicitor he not only shouldn't have approved the leak but should have come clean as soon as the investigation was announced.

The Cabinet Office report on this sorry affair leaves more questions unanswered than answered - a few which spring to mind:

- Why it took 7 weeks to establish what we all suspected that it was Carmichael and his SPAD who were guilty?

- When did Carmichael and his SPAD admit their wrongdoing?

- Was Mundell aware of the memo?

- Willie Rennie was quoted in the original article, was he aware of the memo before it was leaked?

david_herdson

NickPalmer said:

FPT David H and others are surprised that Harriet has endorsed the referendum and wonders what happens if the winning candidate disagrees. In fact, both Burnham and Kendall have endorsed the referendum - not sure about the others but I expect they'll go along. (I don't agree, but so what.) Mainstream British politics is so much leader-driven these days that it seems centuries ago that policy had to be decided by the party conference - even the supposedly democratic Greens turned policies on a sixpence during the campaign after the awkward interview with Neil.

Apart from the familiar arguments in principle (trust the people vs don't take a perceived risk for the country), there's the obvious point that it's going to happen, so Labour needs to take part.

Don't you think it's a bit absurd that a temporary leader, who is herself standing down and is only there because of a mandate from back in 2007, is capable of lumping a policy on a newly elected leader, or alternatively forcing him or her into a U-turn? Even if on this instance, the candidates happen to agree, wouldn't it be better to let democracy take its course? After all, if she can do it on the referendum, she could equally do it on other policies the candidates don't agree with.

I don't dispute that politics is (too) leader-driven. I dispute that Harman is a legitimate leader to be setting the route.

Moses_

david_herdson said:

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Japan or Mercedes?

Touche'

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

As I posted earlier today's Sunday Times yougov has Burnham leading amongst both Labour voters and all voters with Cooper second in both categories, however Kendal is second with Tory voters
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2g0umt985b/SundayTimesResults_150522_Website.pdf (see p4)

I thought that Kendall's scoring was remarkably high given that she is an unknown.

Morris_Dancer

F1: working on the post-race piece, hope to get it up before 4pm.

Edited extra bit: for those interested, I'm also doing a vague early thoughts piece on The Witcher 3.

Moses_

david_herdson said:

Moses_ said:

Moses_ said:

JosiasJessop said:

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Lewis's reaction'll be interesting, as will Mercedes'.

Lauda just admitted it was a monumental mistake. Mercedes admit losing Lewis the GP.

I think I would do a "Top Gear" on someone to be honest if I were Hamilton

Shakes hands well done Hamilton a true sportsman..he was robbed blindly on that. Fly on the wall time in the team meet afterwards.

To be fair, it wasn't Nico's fault. Rosberg was perhaps fortunate to have a Vettel cushion. Had Lewis been directly behind him, you could well imagine a Senna-like yahoo challenging Rosberg to yield or crash them both out.

I don't recollect ever saying it was Rosbergs fault.

Flightpathl

david_herdson said:

NickPalmer said:

FPT David H and others are surprised that Harriet has endorsed the referendum and wonders what happens if the winning candidate disagrees. In fact, both Burnham and Kendall have endorsed the referendum - not sure about the others but I expect they'll go along. (I don't agree, but so what.) Mainstream British politics is so much leader-driven these days that it seems centuries ago that policy had to be decided by the party conference - even the supposedly democratic Greens turned policies on a sixpence during the campaign after the awkward interview with Neil.

Apart from the familiar arguments in principle (trust the people vs don't take a perceived risk for the country), there's the obvious point that it's going to happen, so Labour needs to take part.

Don't you think it's a bit absurd that a temporary leader, who is herself standing down and is only there because of a mandate from back in 2007, is capable of lumping a policy on a newly elected leader, or alternatively forcing him or her into a U-turn? Even if on this instance, the candidates happen to agree, wouldn't it be better to let democracy take its course? After all, if she can do it on the referendum, she could equally do it on other policies the candidates don't agree with.

I don't dispute that politics is (too) leader-driven. I dispute that Harman is a legitimate leader to be setting the route.

Harman is just following in a weak 'me too' fashion, not leading. What is really weak from all the labour hopefuls is that they have no real new reason for their new policy.

Moses_

At day's end It's just a motor race. Worse things are happening elsewhere to put a motor race into prospective

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3094956/ISIS-slaughters-400-women-children-ancient-Syria-city-Palmyra-hundreds-bodies-line-street.html

Morris_Dancer

F1: Rosberg's 6.2 for the title.

Worth considering. After a pretty rubbish start, he drove well in Bahrain, and cruised to victory in Spain. Monaco was flukey, but you don't lose points for that. Quite the reverse, indeed.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Moses, indeed, but it's not a binary choice to discuss one or the other, and F1's a good deal less depressing than the well-documented lunatics of ISIS.

Moses_

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Moses, indeed, but it's not a binary choice to discuss one or the other, and F1's a good deal less depressing than the well-documented lunatics of ISIS.

Mr Morris
Yup!

Flightpathl

Moses_ said:

At day's end It's just a motor race. Worse things are happening elsewhere to put a motor race into prospective

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3094956/ISIS-slaughters-400-women-children-ancient-Syria-city-Palmyra-hundreds-bodies-line-street.html

Correct... Given this murderous genocide, where is the UN and it's supposed remit?

Grandiose

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: working on the post-race piece, hope to get it up before 4pm.

Edited extra bit: for those interested, I'm also doing a vague early thoughts piece on The Witcher 3.

Playing The Witcher 2 atm, deeply frustrating so far, and not in a good way

david_herdson

Moses_ said:

david_herdson said:

Moses_ said:

Moses_ said:

JosiasJessop said:

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mercedes have just committed the greatest strategic and tactical blunder since the Empire of Japan decided to bomb the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep America out of the second world war.

Speechless...a massive monumental, galatical WTF moment

Lewis's reaction'll be interesting, as will Mercedes'.

Lauda just admitted it was a monumental mistake. Mercedes admit losing Lewis the GP.

I think I would do a "Top Gear" on someone to be honest if I were Hamilton

Shakes hands well done Hamilton a true sportsman..he was robbed blindly on that. Fly on the wall time in the team meet afterwards.

To be fair, it wasn't Nico's fault. Rosberg was perhaps fortunate to have a Vettel cushion. Had Lewis been directly behind him, you could well imagine a Senna-like yahoo challenging Rosberg to yield or crash them both out.

I don't recollect ever saying it was Rosbergs fault.

Not claiming you did. What I meant was that it's easier to shake hands with someone who was a fortunate beneficiary of your misfortune at the hands of a third party than with the person who actually created the situation.

Morris_Dancer

F1: my post-race analysis of a memorable Monaco race is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/monaco-post-race-analysis.html

david_herdson

Oh, and in other sporting news, what the heck's going on at the Britannia Stadium?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Grandiose, not played any of the previous games, so can't comment on The Witcher 2, or compare it with 3. I will say that The Witcher 3 [from what I've played] may well be fantastic.

HYUFD

OGH I doubt Burnham and Cooper are that much more known amongst the average voter and Kendal has had a reasonably high media profile post election

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

OGH I doubt Burnham and Cooper are that much more known amongst the average voter and Kendal has had a reasonably high media profile post election

Strongly disagree. Burnham ran last time and has been in high profile role of shadow Health sec for many years. Yvette has, after Harriet, been Labour's best known woman.

HYUFD

Flightpath We are not going to put in groundforces are we, so the airstrikes will continue but it will be up to the Kurds, Shia militias and the Iraqi and Syrian armies and more moderate rebel groups to do the fighting on the ground, some reports of Shia militias and the Iraqi army moving towards Ramadi

MikeSmithson

david_herdson said:

Oh, and in other sporting news, what the heck's going on at the Britannia Stadium?

And why is TSE not posting about his beloved Liverpool?

TheScreamingEagles

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Oh, and in other sporting news, what the heck's going on at the Britannia Stadium?

And why is TSE not posting about his beloved Liverpool?

We're doing our best to try and not qualify for next season's Europa League.

It's just like watching Brazil (versus Germany)

TheScreamingEagles

Anyway, I'm not a football fan, It's an Ashes summer and a Rugby World Cup Autumn.

That's where my sporting priorities lie.

Morris_Dancer

Incidentally, it seems the Greeks have run out of money:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32864068

williamglenn

MikeSmithson said:

Yvette has, after Harriet, been Labour's best known woman.

Is there polling to back that up? I would have guessed that people like Tessa Jowell, Jacqui Smith, Hazel Blears and even Diane Abbott would have at least as much name recognition.

HYUFD

OGH They have been known to those who take a regular interest in politics yes. Anyway for what it is worth the last yougov asked if Umunna, Burnham, Cooper, Hunt, Kendall, Creagh and Eagle would make a good leader and which a bad one, of those 6 (obviously before Umunna and Hunt pulled out):

Good Bad
Umunna 21 14
Burnham 22 14
Cooper 18 20
Hunt 9 15
Kendall 5 9
Creagh 2 8
Eagle 2 11

So Umunna and Burnham the only 2 with clear net positives


http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gxvihxoixc/SundayTimesResults_150515_Website.pdf (pages 2-3)

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Oh, and in other sporting news, what the heck's going on at the Britannia Stadium?

And why is TSE not posting about his beloved Liverpool?

We're doing our best to try and not qualify for next season's Europa League.

It's just like watching Brazil (versus Germany)

LFC=EdM

Speedy

I have a question.
Can candidates who won't be on the ballot actually be on the Labour TV debates?

Because it is a near certainty that Mary Creagh won't be on the ballot.

Moses_

Flightpathl said:

Moses_ said:

At day's end It's just a motor race. Worse things are happening elsewhere to put a motor race into prospective

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3094956/ISIS-slaughters-400-women-children-ancient-Syria-city-Palmyra-hundreds-bodies-line-street.html

Correct... Given this murderous genocide, where is the UN and it's supposed remit?

It's a no win for us really. If we get involved it goes wrong. If we don't well ....it continues to go wrong.

My feeling is the Arab League should probably take the lead (initially anyway) to try to avoid the Western world becoming to embroiled in what is essentially a local problem at the moment. The United Nations and the members should support that but how? A Failure to take measures now will make this an international problem TBH, if it isn't one already?.

I don't want to be in a position of saying "we must do something so something must be done" but failure to do so and continued delay can only place us into the League of Nations scenario. If ISIS get as far as Qatar or even Saudi it would be very dangerous to everyone.

Plato

OT Has anyone watched Bloodline yet on Netflix? The reviews are very strong, but I'm finding it REALLY slow.

For streaming fans - Continuum and Lost Girl have season premieres tonight in the US.

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Oh, and in other sporting news, what the heck's going on at the Britannia Stadium?

And why is TSE not posting about his beloved Liverpool?

We're doing our best to try and not qualify for next season's Europa League.

It's just like watching Brazil (versus Germany)

Southampton are doing a better job.

SandyRentool

Speedy said:

I have a question.
Can candidates who won't be on the ballot actually be on the Labour TV debates?

Because it is a near certainty that Mary Creagh won't be on the ballot.

I interpreted Harman's comments this morning as she will do all she can to get everyone on the ballot.

Morris_Dancer

The Witcher 3 - early thoughts:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/the-witcher-3-ps4-early-thoughts.html

NB not a proper review as I'm not that far into it (and probably won't be for weeks).

NickPalmer

david_herdson said:

Don't you think it's a bit absurd that a temporary leader, who is herself standing down and is only there because of a mandate from back in 2007, is capable of lumping a policy on a newly elected leader, or alternatively forcing him or her into a U-turn? Even if on this instance, the candidates happen to agree, wouldn't it be better to let democracy take its course? After all, if she can do it on the referendum, she could equally do it on other policies the candidates don't agree with.

I don't dispute that politics is (too) leader-driven. I dispute that Harman is a legitimate leader to be setting the route.

Yes, I see what you mean. I think she probably thinks it's a forced move, actually - "The country will be having a referendum but Labour might boycott it, or embrace it, who knows?" is not really a viable position. I agree it would be weird if she suddenly announced that we'll nationalise the fish finger industry or invade Belgium, but even caretaker leaders have to keep up with current events.

Moses_

Sky news

Nobel Prize winner John Nash and his wife Alicia have died in a taxi crash in New Jersey.

The Princeton University mathematician - whose life was portrayed in the film A Beautiful Mind - was 86. His wife was 82.

http://news.sky.com/story/1489972/beautiful-mind-mathematician-john-nash-killed

Speedy

Morris_Dancer said:

Incidentally, it seems the Greeks have run out of money:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32864068

Not yet:
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1626-greeces-hot-summer/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-19/greece-cash-can-last-through-june

They have a primary surplus of just over 2 billion euros so far, however the loan repayments makes it into a 500 million euros deficit.

They have enough revenue to cover internal payments with some to spare, the problem was always that this year Greece has to pay more than 5% of it's GDP on loan repayments.

Therefore I expect Greece to hit the wall on either June 12th or on June 19th or July 10th or July 20th, after which Greece will not pay the full amount that is due.

HYUFD

Moses If ISIS invaded Saudi or Qatar US groundtroops would be there within a week

HYUFD

Moses Sad news, he was immortalised by Russell Crowe in that film, but at least he made it to his eighties

Speedy

Moses_ said:

Sky news

Nobel Prize winner John Nash and his wife Alicia have died in a taxi crash in New Jersey.

The Princeton University mathematician - whose life was portrayed in the film A Beautiful Mind - was 86. His wife was 82.

http://news.sky.com/story/1489972/beautiful-mind-mathematician-john-nash-killed

Yeah, I've seen it some time ago.
A sad day for science.

david_herdson

NickPalmer said:

david_herdson said:

Don't you think it's a bit absurd that a temporary leader, who is herself standing down and is only there because of a mandate from back in 2007, is capable of lumping a policy on a newly elected leader, or alternatively forcing him or her into a U-turn? Even if on this instance, the candidates happen to agree, wouldn't it be better to let democracy take its course? After all, if she can do it on the referendum, she could equally do it on other policies the candidates don't agree with.

I don't dispute that politics is (too) leader-driven. I dispute that Harman is a legitimate leader to be setting the route.

Yes, I see what you mean. I think she probably thinks it's a forced move, actually - "The country will be having a referendum but Labour might boycott it, or embrace it, who knows?" is not really a viable position. I agree it would be weird if she suddenly announced that we'll nationalise the fish finger industry or invade Belgium, but even caretaker leaders have to keep up with current events.

The simplest solution would be to kick the issue into the next session of parliament: "we went into the election opposing a referendum and we were rejected at that election. As such, we need to listen to and take stock of what the people have said, and to consider how best to respond given that the government has been elected on a platform of holding that referendum. The question is not acute and we do not see any reason to bring forward legislation precipitously. As such, we will oppose any attempt by the Tories to rush a Bill through parliament before the summer break. The stance we adopt after that will depend on the specifics that the government put forward, as well as on the mandate that Labour's new leader will by then have."

That'd work, wouldn't it?

felix

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

As I posted earlier today's Sunday Times yougov has Burnham leading amongst both Labour voters and all voters with Cooper second in both categories, however Kendal is second with Tory voters
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2g0umt985b/SundayTimesResults_150522_Website.pdf (see p4)

I thought that Kendall's scoring was remarkably high given that she is an unknown.

Hmmm - I think Kendall's main appeal at the moment is because she is not one of the old guard. Everything else in her favour seems to be a very large dose of wishful thinking. Her experience is very limited, she's said one or two things which sound good but she's also said other things which are less good - such as her opposition to TU reform. I'd have thought the experience of the past few weeks ought to teach us all to be very measured in our responses this early on. I've yet to see much sign that the party really wants to examine it's faults - and quite a few suggestions among the diehards that it was all down to a better Tory ground game, a frightened electorate, etc., etc., ie - nothing to do with the fundamental message. not enough publicity has gone to Sadiq Khan's - the voters are 'bastards' analysis.

madasafish

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Oh, and in other sporting news, what the heck's going on at the Britannia Stadium?

And why is TSE not posting about his beloved Liverpool?

We're doing our best to try and not qualify for next season's Europa League.

It's just like watching Brazil (versus Germany)

It's great. Our elder son is a Stoke fan.

Liverpool need a new manager and some decent players.. :-)

AlastairMeeks

Mr Brind's various observations seem to indicate a clear betting strategy to me. But I have no intentions of pointing out what it is, because I don't want to sabotage my own attempts to take advantage of it.

HYUFD

Felix At the moment Yougov, as I posted earlier, shows Burnham leading followed by Cooper with both Labour voters and all voters, though Kendall is second with Tory voters

TheWhiteRabbit

Stokes v the short ball
Stoke v Liverpool

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

The Witcher 3 - early thoughts:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/the-witcher-3-ps4-early-thoughts.html

NB not a proper review as I'm not that far into it (and probably won't be for weeks).

Much obliged.

DecrepitJohnL

Moses_ said:

Sky news

Nobel Prize winner John Nash and his wife Alicia have died in a taxi crash in New Jersey.

The Princeton University mathematician - whose life was portrayed in the film A Beautiful Mind - was 86. His wife was 82.

http://news.sky.com/story/1489972/beautiful-mind-mathematician-john-nash-killed

One of the smartest guys on the planet died because he was not wearing a seatbelt.

AlastairMeeks

John Rentoul observes that last time round the party members voted for David Miliband. But did this represent a preference for the most Blairite candidate or for the candidate perceived as the front runner and positioned as the most leaderly?

Scott_P

antifrank said:

John Rentoul observes that last time round the party members voted for David Miliband. But did this represent a preference for the most Blairite candidate or for the candidate perceived as the front runner and positioned as the most leaderly?

Look at his competition...

He was the ONLY viable candidate on the list

Scott_P

@SunPolitics: Senior Labour figures plot David Miliband return http://sunpl.us/6017CSzD http://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/602493257088634880/photo/1

JohnLoony

Clive told me to F-word Off when I was campaigning during the Croydon North by-election campaign in 2012.

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Felix At the moment Yougov, as I posted earlier, shows Burnham leading followed by Cooper with both Labour voters and all voters, though Kendall is second with Tory voters

Don't forget only Labour party members vote not Tory party members, so the focus should be on the preference of Labour voters only.

DecrepitJohnL

DecrepitJohnL said:

Moses_ said:

Sky news

Nobel Prize winner John Nash and his wife Alicia have died in a taxi crash in New Jersey.

The Princeton University mathematician - whose life was portrayed in the film A Beautiful Mind - was 86. His wife was 82.

http://news.sky.com/story/1489972/beautiful-mind-mathematician-john-nash-killed

One of the smartest guys on the planet died because he was not wearing a seatbelt.

And ironically, John Nash was in a taxi on the way back from the airport after picking up the Abel Prize for being one of the smartest guys on the planet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abel_Prize

Speedy

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: Senior Labour figures plot David Miliband return http://sunpl.us/6017CSzD http://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/602493257088634880/photo/1

If there is a Labour MP willing to resign his very safe seat (if it's not very safe then Miliband would probably lose it) for David Miliband, if the Labour party allows him to be selected, if he can get 35 MP's and if he can do all that in time to be on the ballot.

That's 4 big IF's, 5 big IF's if Miliband doesn't get to run in a very safe seat.

A midsummer's night dream.

Sunil_Prasannan

Oh well, West Ham survive but big Sam doesn't...

HYUFD

Speedy Though Burnham led with Tory voters too, albeit by a smaller margin, it was just Kendal was second not Cooper. In fact Kendal did better with Tory voters than with Labour, UKIP and LD voters, suggesting perhaps she should cross the floor and replace Cameron in 2020, after all she wants lower taxes and spending, backs free schools and an EU ref and wants to reform welfare, she certainly makes Ken Clarke look wet!

Sunil_Prasannan

On topic: Ed Balls has the same odds as Mary Creagh???

Big_G_NorthWales

david_herdson said:

NickPalmer said:

david_herdson said:

Don't you think it's a bit absurd that a temporary leader, who is herself standing down and is only there because of a mandate from back in 2007, is capable of lumping a policy on a newly elected leader, or alternatively forcing him or her into a U-turn? Even if on this instance, the candidates happen to agree, wouldn't it be better to let democracy take its course? After all, if she can do it on the referendum, she could equally do it on other policies the candidates don't agree with.

I don't dispute that politics is (too) leader-driven. I dispute that Harman is a legitimate leader to be setting the route.

Yes, I see what you mean. I think she probably thinks it's a forced move, actually - "The country will be having a referendum but Labour might boycott it, or embrace it, who knows?" is not really a viable position. I agree it would be weird if she suddenly announced that we'll nationalise the fish finger industry or invade Belgium, but even caretaker leaders have to keep up with current events.

The simplest solution would be to kick the issue into the next session of parliament: "we went into the election opposing a referendum and we were rejected at that election. As such, we need to listen to and take stock of what the people have said, and to consider how best to respond given that the government has been elected on a platform of holding that referendum. The question is not acute and we do not see any reason to bring forward legislation precipitously. As such, we will oppose any attempt by the Tories to rush a Bill through parliament before the summer break. The stance we adopt after that will depend on the specifics that the government put forward, as well as on the mandate that Labour's new leader will by then have."

That'd work, wouldn't it?

No

SouthamObserver

If Yvette Cooper's Huffington Post piece from yesterday is anything to go by she is not really serious about competing for the leadership. It was terrible.

AlastairMeeks

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Oh well, West Ham survive but big Sam doesn't...

I would make some comment about the board astonishing him with their ingratitude, but I doubt he was astonished.

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Speedy Though Burnham led with Tory voters too, albeit by a smaller margin, it was just Kendal was second not Cooper. In fact Kendal did better with Tory voters than with Labour, UKIP and LD voters, suggesting perhaps she should cross the floor and replace Cameron in 2020, after all she wants lower taxes and spending, backs free schools and an EU ref and wants to reform welfare, she certainly makes Ken Clarke look wet!

Focus on the Labour voters only, don't forget only Labour members vote in the leadership election.

Speedy

Sunil_Prasannan said:

On topic: Ed Balls has the same odds as Mary Creagh???

That's because she, like Balls, probably won't be on the ballot.

Big_G_NorthWales

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Though Burnham led with Tory voters too, albeit by a smaller margin, it was just Kendal was second not Cooper. In fact Kendal did better with Tory voters than with Labour, UKIP and LD voters, suggesting perhaps she should cross the floor and replace Cameron in 2020, after all she wants lower taxes and spending, backs free schools and an EU ref and wants to reform welfare, she certainly makes Ken Clarke look wet!

Focus on the Labour voters only, don't forget only Labour members vote in the leadership election.

According to Hattie on Marr the election is open to all

david_herdson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

NickPalmer said:

david_herdson said:

Don't you think it's a bit absurd that a temporary leader, who is herself standing down and is only there because of a mandate from back in 2007, is capable of lumping a policy on a newly elected leader, or alternatively forcing him or her into a U-turn? Even if on this instance, the candidates happen to agree, wouldn't it be better to let democracy take its course? After all, if she can do it on the referendum, she could equally do it on other policies the candidates don't agree with.

I don't dispute that politics is (too) leader-driven. I dispute that Harman is a legitimate leader to be setting the route.

Yes, I see what you mean. I think she probably thinks it's a forced move, actually - "The country will be having a referendum but Labour might boycott it, or embrace it, who knows?" is not really a viable position. I agree it would be weird if she suddenly announced that we'll nationalise the fish finger industry or invade Belgium, but even caretaker leaders have to keep up with current events.

The simplest solution would be to kick the issue into the next session of parliament: "we went into the election opposing a referendum and we were rejected at that election. As such, we need to listen to and take stock of what the people have said, and to consider how best to respond given that the government has been elected on a platform of holding that referendum. The question is not acute and we do not see any reason to bring forward legislation precipitously. As such, we will oppose any attempt by the Tories to rush a Bill through parliament before the summer break. The stance we adopt after that will depend on the specifics that the government put forward, as well as on the mandate that Labour's new leader will by then have."

That'd work, wouldn't it?

No

Why?

Speedy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Though Burnham led with Tory voters too, albeit by a smaller margin, it was just Kendal was second not Cooper. In fact Kendal did better with Tory voters than with Labour, UKIP and LD voters, suggesting perhaps she should cross the floor and replace Cameron in 2020, after all she wants lower taxes and spending, backs free schools and an EU ref and wants to reform welfare, she certainly makes Ken Clarke look wet!

Focus on the Labour voters only, don't forget only Labour members vote in the leadership election.

According to Hattie on Marr the election is open to all

Nope.
One member, one vote system:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2015

"Candidates will be elected by members and registered and affiliated supporters, who will all receive a maximum of one vote and all votes will be weighted equally."

So the focus should be exclusively on Labour voters.

HYUFD

Speedy On Labour voters only, it was Burnham then Cooper then Kendal then Creagh

DecrepitJohnL

antifrank said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Oh well, West Ham survive but big Sam doesn't...

I would make some comment about the board astonishing him with their ingratitude, but I doubt he was astonished.

Sam Allardyce was the 13th highest paid manager in the world, on £3 million a year. That's a lot for consistent mid-table finishes, dull football and the most expensive sick list in the league. Let's not shed too many tears.

HYUFD

Decrepit John Sad to say there is an inverse relationship between common sense and high intelligence

Big_G_NorthWales

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

NickPalmer said:

david_herdson said:

Don't you think it's a bit absurd that a temporary leader, who is herself standing down and is only there because of a mandate from back in 2007, is capable of lumping a policy on a newly elected leader, or alternatively forcing him or her into a U-turn? Even if on this instance, the candidates happen to agree, wouldn't it be better to let democracy take its course? After all, if she can do it on the referendum, she could equally do it on other policies the candidates don't agree with.

I don't dispute that politics is (too) leader-driven. I dispute that Harman is a legitimate leader to be setting the route.

Yes, I see what you mean. I think she probably thinks it's a forced move, actually - "The country will be having a referendum but Labour might boycott it, or embrace it, who knows?" is not really a viable position. I agree it would be weird if she suddenly announced that we'll nationalise the fish finger industry or invade Belgium, but even caretaker leaders have to keep up with current events.

The simplest solution would be to kick the issue into the next session of parliament: "we went into the election opposing a referendum and we were rejected at that election. As such, we need to listen to and take stock of what the people have said, and to consider how best to respond given that the government has been elected on a platform of holding that referendum. The question is not acute and we do not see any reason to bring forward legislation precipitously. As such, we will oppose any attempt by the Tories to rush a Bill through parliament before the summer break. The stance we adopt after that will depend on the specifics that the government put forward, as well as on the mandate that Labour's new leader will by then have."

That'd work, wouldn't it?

No

Why?

Prevarication would just add to the narrative of an incoherent and chaotic opposition. As an almost daily diet of EU stories play out daily in the media they will demand a coherant policy from labour

richardDodd

Cannot wait to see the return of D Miliband...it would be a vivid reminder of just how awful he was..and destroys the myth..

Sunil_Prasannan

antifrank said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Oh well, West Ham survive but big Sam doesn't...

I would make some comment about the board astonishing him with their ingratitude, but I doubt he was astonished.

Hmmm..

"He leaves the club in a considerably better state then when he arrived and, for that, the board are truly grateful."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32863888

AlastairMeeks

Last matched price for Andy Burnham on Betfair: 1.87.

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Speedy On Labour voters only, it was Burnham then Cooper then Kendal then Creagh

Indeed so the state of the race assuming Kendall get's on the ballot, a big IF, is:

Burnham 25
Cooper 14
Kendall 5

D/K 54

So lets wait for the debates, early days, so far Burnham has the lead and Kendall is doing very badly with Cooper in the middle.
If this was a Republican primary I would have said that's a two horse race between Burnham and Cooper, but the debates can change things.

We need a poll of Labour only voters and with a 2 straight choice question: Burnham or Cooper, Burhman or Kendall, Cooper or Kendall.

Big_G_NorthWales

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy Though Burnham led with Tory voters too, albeit by a smaller margin, it was just Kendal was second not Cooper. In fact Kendal did better with Tory voters than with Labour, UKIP and LD voters, suggesting perhaps she should cross the floor and replace Cameron in 2020, after all she wants lower taxes and spending, backs free schools and an EU ref and wants to reform welfare, she certainly makes Ken Clarke look wet!

Focus on the Labour voters only, don't forget only Labour members vote in the leadership election.

According to Hattie on Marr the election is open to all

Nope.
One member, one vote system:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2015

"Candidates will be elected by members and registered and affiliated supporters, who will all receive a maximum of one vote and all votes will be weighted equally."

So the focus should be exclusively on Labour voters.

As I understand it anyone can vote who pays a joining fee of only £3.00 and therefore labour has no effective control of who joins - you may be surprised how many conservative, snp and ukip supporters join just to cause mischief !!!!!!

Sunil_Prasannan

richardDodd said:

Cannot wait to see the return of D Miliband...it would be a vivid reminder of just how awful he was..and destroys the myth..

"This is 10 Downing Street. And this is David - the schoolboy who leads an exciting double life. For when David eats a banana, an amazing transformation occurs!

David is BANANAMAN, ever alert for the call to action!"

david_herdson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

NickPalmer said:

david_herdson said:

Don't you think it's a bit absurd that a temporary leader, who is herself standing down and is only there because of a mandate from back in 2007, is capable of lumping a policy on a newly elected leader, or alternatively forcing him or her into a U-turn? Even if on this instance, the candidates happen to agree, wouldn't it be better to let democracy take its course? After all, if she can do it on the referendum, she could equally do it on other policies the candidates don't agree with.

I don't dispute that politics is (too) leader-driven. I dispute that Harman is a legitimate leader to be setting the route.

Yes, I see what you mean. I think she probably thinks it's a forced move, actually - "The country will be having a referendum but Labour might boycott it, or embrace it, who knows?" is not really a viable position. I agree it would be weird if she suddenly announced that we'll nationalise the fish finger industry or invade Belgium, but even caretaker leaders have to keep up with current events.

The simplest solution would be to kick the issue into the next session of parliament: "we went into the election opposing a referendum and we were rejected at that election. As such, we need to listen to and take stock of what the people have said, and to consider how best to respond given that the government has been elected on a platform of holding that referendum. The question is not acute and we do not see any reason to bring forward legislation precipitously. As such, we will oppose any attempt by the Tories to rush a Bill through parliament before the summer break. The stance we adopt after that will depend on the specifics that the government put forward, as well as on the mandate that Labour's new leader will by then have."

That'd work, wouldn't it?

No

Why?

Prevarication would just add to the narrative of an incoherent and chaotic opposition. As an almost daily diet of EU stories play out daily in the media they will demand a coherant policy from labour

Stuff the media: I'd hope the public would be fairer than that. Such EU stories as there are, are more likely to relate to Greece than Cameron, whose renegotiation is still in very early days. Reacting to events is a different matter but can (and should) be done reactively.

The one point I would stick to is opposing any attempt by Cameron or Hammond to unfairly take advantage of Labour holding fire in that respect. But again, I'd trust to public to recognise foul play in that way.