MikeL By 2005 though Blair was losing seats to his left to the LDs and Respect, post EU ref there is a danger a narrow In vote would leave Tory seats open to a SNP style post-referendum UKIP surge
I do not really see the comparison. Scotland is still safe in the UK even with all its SNP MPs. What increased power or influence in the EU could UKIP offer to match the logic of the SNP surge and their pledge to make labour jump to their tune? Despite what UKIP or anybody says - the UK is already independent; voting UKIP is not going to offer much.
Just done a calculation based on the Tory fall in 9 of the 11 Scottish Lib Dem seats before the election (excluding Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine and Berwickshire where the Tories were in contention to win):
Seat / Fall in Tory vote / Turnout / Tories voting tactically for Lib Dems (rounded)
On this 'rough' method I make the Tory tactical vote for the Lib Dems 30,289. Adding this to the Scottish Tory vote of 434,097 gives 464,386. Total turnout of 2,911,465 then gives a vote share of 15.95% without the 'arguable' Lib Dem tactical vote. This makes a vote share of 15.95% which is still 0.75% down on what the Tories achieved in Scotland in 2010.
Arguably a few Tories voted Labour tactically to try to stop the SNP, but that was a bit part compared to what happened in the 9 former Lib Dem seats above - I still think their vote was marginally down on what they got in 2010 when allowing for the tactical voting.
Labour can still say they had 15 seats with higher voting % than the Tories best seat in Hampshire NE. Also the absolute majorities in Knowsley and East Ham were higher than Hampshire NE closely followed by Maidenhead. If James Arbuthnot had stood again in Hampshire NE then arguably his personal vote would have seen the majority over 30,000!
@AlastairRoss: Big row over who sits where, frayed tempers and he said/she said claims abound - but tomorrow's another day for all P1 teachers #seatgate
FlightPathL The comparison is that Scottish Labour voters who voted Yes in the referendum moved to the 'Yes' party the SNP, there is a danger for the Tories some Tory voters who vote Out in a narrowly defeated EU Out campaign move to UKIP, the 'Out' party
Labour can still say they had 15 seats with higher voting % than the Tories best seat in Hampshire NE. Also the absolute majorities in Knowsley and East Ham were higher than Hampshire NE closely followed by Maidenhead. If James Arbuthnot had stood again in Hampshire NE then arguably his personal vote would have seen the majority over 30,000!
Do you have any previous elections in this format?
One of the hardest working constituency MP's by all accounts is Geoffrey Cox of Devon W & Torridge. To think that he only marginally gained that from the Lib Dems back in 2005, and now is 57th in terms of highest Tory vote share at 56.6% - OK he's been massively aided by the enormous Lib Dem collapse, but even so that is quite some going.
Very interesting comments on Gower and Vale of Clywd earlier today - thanks to all PB'ers who contributed to that with their local knowledge!
Parties lose elections, fair enough, but I'm struggling to remember another instance where quite so much clear water has been put between many of the leadership candidates and what they'd signed up to only ten days ago. As for Ed, he's quickly getting airbrushed pseudo Soviet style. I have not heard anyone (someone will probably put me right) within Labour who's had a good word to say since mid morning on May 8th.
Mirrors my experience on the doorstep in the months up to May 8th.
I literally did not find one voter with anything good to say about Ed.
I'm assuming it's a fact at present. But I'm also assuming she'll make the ballot paper in the end, because Hunt & Creagh will have the same issue, only more so.
Great first day back at school in the Commons today. Loved Mhairi's comment - 'there were no signs to say we couldn't sit there'!!! If that's the fun and games we're in for over the next 5 years then I say bring it on. Can't wait for the first Foreign Affairs debate to see Salmond and the roaring lions of the SNP let rip into Hammond - it'll be a hoot!
To be fair, though, we shouldn't get distracted by the continual games of ministerial musical chairs under Blair. His governments were uniquely dysfunctional in terms of the short half-life of ministers. Many Home Secs prior to Blair lasted at least three or four years.
The length of the Secretary of State for the Home Department's tenure is not necessarily indicative of success. In that respect among others, the analogy between Mrs May and the late Sir William Joynson-Hicks grows stronger by the day.
I make it 316 constituencies where the winning MP won over 50% of the vote in 2015 from Andy JS's wonderful spreadsheet - I should think that was significantly up in terms of the number of seats compared with 2010, although it still wasn't half of all the constituencies.
Just starting to get a bit more volatility on the financial markets again - it looks like the US Dollar has gone through the 1st leg of the larger correction that I warned needed to happen - we should see some broad $ strength re-emerging again before we have to go through a 2nd corrective leg, before $ strength really emerges at the end of this year all the way into late 2017.
Ructions in the bond market too - there has been a noticeable sell off in the long end of the market (10+ year terms) with the capital flowing into the short end of the bond market - was 20th April 2015 the day when the longer term debt put in a historic bottom - with the short end (terms broadly under 10 years) to follow at the end of September this year as I expect. At the 1981 high in bond yields, the difference was weeks rather than months if I'm right, although I suspect yields on the long end will be close to the 20th April levels at the end of September, even if they don't form a slight new high.
Looking for a correction in stocks (Dow back to around 16,300 area which would be around a 10% correction) and then it'll be time to be long US stocks as all the capital flees into private assets once we get past the great turn at the end of September this year, and all hell breaks loose in the sovereign debt market.
Labour can still say they had 15 seats with higher voting % than the Tories best seat in Hampshire NE. Also the absolute majorities in Knowsley and East Ham were higher than Hampshire NE closely followed by Maidenhead. If James Arbuthnot had stood again in Hampshire NE then arguably his personal vote would have seen the majority over 30,000!
Do you have any previous elections in this format?
Hope you're asking Andy JS and not me - I certainly don't!
The Bill may not tell us that much. The Electoral Commission will come under a statutory duty to consult about the question proposed in the Bill, and the Government will probably accept any recommendations the Commission makes for a change. The Bill need not even contain the date of the poll to comply with the Conservatives' manifesto commitment. It could simply provide that the referendum is to occur by 21 December 2017, or on such earlier date as may be appointed by the Secretary of State by Order. The key provisions of importance will be those regulating the franchise and campaign finance, but the government could ask Parliament to allow it to make detailed provision in those areas by secondary legislation, albeit there would be a risk of challenge to such legislation in courts. As this referendum is likely to be consultative, there will be no need to make provision about what will happen after the result, unlike the 1979 Scotland & Wales referenda and the 2011 AV referendum.
I make it 316 constituencies where the winning MP won over 50% of the vote in 2015 from Andy JS's wonderful spreadsheet - I should think that was significantly up in terms of the number of seats compared with 2010, although it still wasn't half of all the constituencies.
The destruction of the Lib Dems has made both parties' safe seats safer.
Labour can still say they had 15 seats with higher voting % than the Tories best seat in Hampshire NE. Also the absolute majorities in Knowsley and East Ham were higher than Hampshire NE closely followed by Maidenhead. If James Arbuthnot had stood again in Hampshire NE then arguably his personal vote would have seen the majority over 30,000!
Do you have any previous elections in this format?
I did the same thing for 2010 but with separate spreadsheets rather than on one spreadsheet with sheets, and (annoyingly) they were ranked from lowest to highest for Con, Lab, LD although not for UKIP, Greens:
One of the hardest working constituency MP's by all accounts is Geoffrey Cox of Devon W & Torridge. To think that he only marginally gained that from the Lib Dems back in 2005, and now is 57th in terms of highest Tory vote share at 56.6% - OK he's been massively aided by the enormous Lib Dem collapse, but even so that is quite some going.
Very interesting comments on Gower and Vale of Clywd earlier today - thanks to all PB'ers who contributed to that with their local knowledge!
Do you mean Devon West & Torridge? That's no. 157. Devon SW is no. 57.
Pleased you like it, I sometimes think I might be getting on people's nerves by posting too much information, which may already be available elsewhere, I'm not sure.
Walsall North MP David Winnick had strong words (to put it mildly) for the Tory candidate and campaign in his acceptance speech.
By far the longest speech was given by the TUSC candidate Pete Smith, who came fifth with 545 votes. I'm amazed the returning officer allowed him to go on for so long...
Pleased you like it, I sometimes think I might be getting on people's nerves by posting too much information, which may already be available elsewhere, I'm not sure.
Just completed my general election results spreadsheet. I know others are already available but since I'd already started doing this one I decided to finish the job. Includes result for all 3,971 candidates:
Pleased you like it, I sometimes think I might be getting on people's nerves by posting too much information, which may already be available elsewhere, I'm not sure.
Pleased you like it, I sometimes think I might be getting on people's nerves by posting too much information, which may already be available elsewhere, I'm not sure.
Comments
Despite what UKIP or anybody says - the UK is already independent; voting UKIP is not going to offer much.
Seat / Fall in Tory vote / Turnout / Tories voting tactically for Lib Dems (rounded)
Argyll -9.12% / 5u1,883 / 4,732
Caithness -6.21% / 34,186 / 2,123
Dunbarton E -6.88% / 54,871 / 3,775
Edinburgh W -10.91% / 54,858 / 5,985
Fife NE -5.46% / 45,263 / 2,471
Gordon -6.98% / 58,161 / 4,060
Inverness -7.41% / 57,613 / 4,269
Ross& Skye -6.01% / 41,811 / 2,513
Orkney & Shetland -1.59% / 22,728 / 361
On this 'rough' method I make the Tory tactical vote for the Lib Dems 30,289. Adding this to the Scottish Tory vote of 434,097 gives 464,386. Total turnout of 2,911,465 then gives a vote share of 15.95% without the 'arguable' Lib Dem tactical vote. This makes a vote share of 15.95% which is still 0.75% down on what the Tories achieved in Scotland in 2010.
Arguably a few Tories voted Labour tactically to try to stop the SNP, but that was a bit part compared to what happened in the 9 former Lib Dem seats above - I still think their vote was marginally down on what they got in 2010 when allowing for the tactical voting.
Any thoughts?!
Very interesting comments on Gower and Vale of Clywd earlier today - thanks to all PB'ers who contributed to that with their local knowledge!
I literally did not find one voter with anything good to say about Ed.
Not one.
He truly was the Kevin Phillips Bong of 2015.
Ructions in the bond market too - there has been a noticeable sell off in the long end of the market (10+ year terms) with the capital flowing into the short end of the bond market - was 20th April 2015 the day when the longer term debt put in a historic bottom - with the short end (terms broadly under 10 years) to follow at the end of September this year as I expect. At the 1981 high in bond yields, the difference was weeks rather than months if I'm right, although I suspect yields on the long end will be close to the 20th April levels at the end of September, even if they don't form a slight new high.
Looking for a correction in stocks (Dow back to around 16,300 area which would be around a 10% correction) and then it'll be time to be long US stocks as all the capital flees into private assets once we get past the great turn at the end of September this year, and all hell breaks loose in the sovereign debt market.
Fascinating times ahead! Good night all.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/18/saudi-arabia-advertises-eight-new-executioners-beheadings-soar
Con:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Mx-m6jU9pfe2O8aXmuqDfgzZaLfpYoQTAtfAECBq-ck/edit#gid=0
UKIP:
Lab:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-Wgv-d92qxxBiMvSdimZMmngYTG2KEVHq1ZGD5bwyt4/edit#gid=0
LD:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1871yVugSIzsVi5vVuVALZRM04kZyTeIoj8zGATbWsxY/edit?usp=sheets_web
UKIP:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nkhnemIsp8xN3ln0aZWefDmo6GsZoQBjM_IVoOWHst8/edit#gid=0
Greens:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Y6K9EfRuZ4AVVHPyXu2rgfhOwd7I-f1xWmj7-YMxrRA/edit#gid=0
By far the longest speech was given by the TUSC candidate Pete Smith, who came fifth with 545 votes. I'm amazed the returning officer allowed him to go on for so long...
Declaration at 9:54:30
www.youtube.com/watch?v=otYmStYPlDc