valleyboy Labour will win in Wales next year as it has done in every election since 1918 apart from the 2009 Euro elections. The Tories will remain the main opposition, but I would be surprised if they do as well as Plaid's 17 seats in 1999, they won 14 in 2011
Of course the electoral make up will mean a Labour majority, but I can see us being pushed very close in the Valleys by UKIP, in other pats by the Tories and Plaid I would be pleasantly surprised if we get any more than 26 seats.Don't forget the Assembly is not universally popular in Wales and I can see a big protest vote looming to Labours detriment. I will post hopefully more rational comments as that election nears.
justin124 Indeed also Bonar Law went to Glasgow attending lectures on an informal basis and the Earl of Bute to Leiden University and Earl Russell to Edinburgh
Does anyone know who, aside from Gordon Brown, was the last university educated Prime Minister who did not go to Oxford?
I only ask because looking at the list of Labour Leader candidates only two (Cooper and Burnham) went to Oxford (the other three are Cambridge graduates).
Baldwin (Trinity, Cambridge)?
Churchill was at Cambridge.
Churchill is, of course, a college at Cambridge but the Prime Minister of that name was not educated there or indeed at any university.
So it looks like Baldwin eighty years ago was the last English graduate PM who didn't go to Oxford. Not much point in Labour choosing any of the Cambridge team if they want to win in 2020 then.
A neat summary of the 59 Scottish MPs backgrounds, not quite the marauding bunch of benefit junkies you were probably expecting. Apologies I don't think any of them have been to Oxbridge:
A neat summary of the 59 Scottish MPs backgrounds, not quite the marauding bunch of benefit junkies you were probably expecting. Apologies I don't think any of them have been to Oxbridge:
A neat summary of the 59 Scottish MPs backgrounds, not quite the marauding bunch of benefit junkies you were probably expecting. Apologies I don't think any of them have been to Oxbridge:
Any CDE's in there? Look all AB professions to me.
Up the workers?
A few dodgy ones in there, Murray as "events organiser" what a joke. Pete Wishart was in runrig in 20th century and I bet there are a few other creative ones for sure.
A neat summary of the 59 Scottish MPs backgrounds, not quite the marauding bunch of benefit junkies you were probably expecting. Apologies I don't think any of them have been to Oxbridge: twitter.com/RobbieDinwoodie/status/600266504744148992/photo/1
Any CDE's in there? Look all AB professions to me. Up the workers?
A few dodgy ones in there, Murray as "events organiser" what a joke. Pete Wishart was in runrig in 20th century and I bet there are a few other creative ones for sure.
Well one at least has not had a job - she is still a student.
Valleyboy Maybe, but Labour will also have a better leader than Ed Miliband at least in all likelihood and after 6 years of a Tory government voters will probably also do a mid-term protest benefiting Labour even if there is some opposition to their Assembly record
First Yvette's declared backers: Stephen Pound, Kevan Jones, Chris Bryant, Kate Green, John Healey, Spellar, Vernon Coaker, Seema Malhotra, Paula Sherriff, Jess Phillips, Khalid Mahmood, Sharon Hodgson, Helen Goodman, David Hanson and Shabana Mahmood
The SNP lot look very very normal to me, could be part of the appeal...
Agreed. Would be interesting to see how CON and LAB compare to the SNP background wise
It would be!
Shouldn't take long to collate for the LDs...
(And even quicker for kippers and Greens)
Would indeed be interesting to see Tory and Labour analysis, my gut feel is the SNP demographic would be more similar to the Tories than Labour. Not sure what implications if any to draw from this.
The SNP lot look very very normal to me, could be part of the appeal...
Another interesting aspect is that the SNP candidates were all elected one person one vote at a constituency level and we had a broad range of candidates to choose from. In my constituency, Stirling, we had 8 candidates. They were 4 with political backgrounds, 3 business leaders, and a lecturer. There were 4 female and 4 male candidates. We ended up selecting Stephen Paterson who was a local councillor.
First Yvette's declared backers: Stephen Pound, Kevan Jones, Chris Bryant, Kate Green, John Healey, Spellar, Vernon Coaker, Seema Malhotra, Paula Sherriff, Jess Phillips, Khalid Mahmood, Sharon Hodgson, Helen Goodman, David Hanson and Shabana Mahmood
AP82 Indeed, more backbench MPs will have been councillors than SPADs, with some businessmen, city workers, army officers, doctors and nurses, lawyers, social workers, teachers and academics and journalists amongst them. They may have worked for a year or 2 as researchers but will have done something else too, SPADs tend to get into parliament by being parachuted into safe seats
AP82 Indeed, more backbench MPs will have been councillors than SPADs, with some businessmen, city workers, army officers, doctors and nurses, lawyers, social workers, teachers and academics and journalists amongst them. They may have worked for a year or 2 as researchers but will have done something else too, SPADs tend to get into parliament by being parachuted into safe seats
I think that fits all of the declared Labour Leadership candidates, SPADS in safe seats.
First Yvette's declared backers: Stephen Pound, Kevan Jones, Chris Bryant, Kate Green, John Healey, Spellar, Vernon Coaker, Seema Malhotra, Paula Sherriff, Jess Phillips, Khalid Mahmood, Sharon Hodgson, Helen Goodman, David Hanson and Shabana Mahmood
Going to look a bit sick if Scouser Ed comes out with 80......
Fox Well Cameron was a SPAD in a safe seat and a little PR. Cooper was economics correspondent for the Independent after working for John Smith, Bill Clinton and Harriet Harman, Tristram Hunt a history academic, Kendall was a Director of the Ambulance Services Network and the charity Maternity Alliance and an associate director of the IPPR before becoming a SPAD to Harman and Hewitt
Valleyboy Maybe, but Labour will also have a better leader than Ed Miliband at least in all likelihood and after 6 years of a Tory government voters will probably also do a mid-term protest benefiting Labour even if there is some opposition to their Assembly record
Labour's leadership in Wales is better than the Tories' though they will be concerned by UKIP up the Valleys. They will hope UKIP keep fighting like ferrets in a sack as they seem to have been since Nigel stood on a cliff and announced he was taking a break/resigning.
I expect a Labour minority propped up by Plaid. Hard to see the Libs recovering hugely in a short time though a bit of uptick may register. Tories to remain the official opposition
Fox Well Cameron was a SPAD in a safe seat and a little PR. Cooper was economics correspondent for the Independent, Tristram Hunt a history academic
Yeah. Pretty depressing isn't it. At least Burnham has a vague connection to his area. The rest are Blow-ins, including Liz Kendall. She was Patricia Hewitts SPAD then inherited the seat. I recall Hewitt had no connection to the area, but was SPAD to Neil Kinnock before being dropped into Leicester West when Greville Janner retired.
Fox Well Cameron was a SPAD in a safe seat and a little PR. Cooper was economics correspondent for the Independent, Tristram Hunt a history academic
Yeah. Pretty depressing isn't it. At least Burnham has a vague connection to his area. The rest are Blow-ins, including Liz Kendall. She was Patricia Hewitts SPAD then inherited the seat. I recall Hewitt had no connection to the area, but was SPAD to Neil Kinnock before being dropped into Leicester West when Greville Janner retired.
I hate the whole "safe seat" culture.
It's the 21st century's version of Old Sarum and Dunwich.
While you are here HYUFD, Marco Rubio joins Jeb Bush in getting stuck in the Iraq War sandpit, he says the war was not a mistake and made a mess of his interview on Fox News, watch the video of the trainwreck bellow:
Fox Well Cameron was a SPAD in a safe seat and a little PR. Cooper was economics correspondent for the Independent, Tristram Hunt a history academic
Yeah. Pretty depressing isn't it. At least Burnham has a vague connection to his area. The rest are Blow-ins, including Liz Kendall. She was Patricia Hewitts SPAD then inherited the seat. I recall Hewitt had no connection to the area, but was SPAD to Neil Kinnock before being dropped into Leicester West when Greville Janner retired.
I hate the whole "safe seat" culture.
Me too. The "rotten boroughs" of the 21st century.
Just like those who got the patronage of some aristo in the 18th C all it seemingly takes is for some SPAD or other favoured insider to get the right patronage and get the nomination for a "safe" seat and they're pretty much guaranteed to be in Parliament for as long as they want.
Fox/Welshowl Indeed, the party machines make sure their talents get the 'right' seat, although even those can fall sometimes as 1997 showed and Balls and the LDs and Scottish Labour found out in 2015
Speaking of safe seats and Spads, what happened with Ed Balls? He barely held his seat last time, lost it this time - did he not get a safe seat as reward for services rendered?
Far be it from me to be unduly cynical, but there may be an element of self-interest in that.
It will help him get a good job under Burnham -- but if Burnham loses, then it will be much harder for Jarvis to present himself as a fresh new face after GE 2020.
Karin Smyth "manager with the NHS Bristol Clinical Commissioning Group.In the past I have run an MP’s office and been the director of an NHS Trust" Colleen Fletcher full time Cllr. First elected in 1992, she's 60, so maybe already retired. Latest job: Customer Services Office at Orbit Housing Group Matthew Pennycook: Cllr 2010-2014. "I have spent the last ten years working in a number of roles in a range of charitable and voluntary sector" Tulip Siddiq Cllr 2010-14; "I most recently worked for Brunswick Group LLP in corporate social responsibility," Vicky Foxcroft: Cllr 2010-14. She works for Unite Richard Burgon: trade union lawyer (IIRC GMB) Kate Hollern: council leader until 2014. I think she was doing it full time. Marie Rimmer: former council leader, group leader for many decades...cllr since 1978 Ruth Smeeth: former Deputy Director of HOPE not hate (does it count as a job? I can't see anything else http://www.ruthsmeeth.org.uk/about) Helen Hayes: Cllr 2010-14. "In 1998 I joined a colleague who had set up a fledgling small business called Town Centres Limited. Our company provided support to town centres that had taken a hit during the recession of the 1990s...We subsequently changed the name of our small company to Urban Practitioners and in 2011, we merged with a large firm of architects called Allies and Morrison " Stephen Kinnock: wors for Xyntéo Justin Madders: employment lawyer Louise Haigh: works for Aviva Rebecca Long Baily: solicitor Carolyn Harris: office manager of retiring MP Jo Cox: Oxfam, an anti slavery charity, previously Save the Children and the NSPCC, Lady Kinnock Angela Reyner: Unison lay official, previously worked in social care Melanie Onn: union organizer Judith Cummins: full time cllr Christina Rees: cllr and squash coach Peter Dowd: council leader Harry Harpham: deputy council leader, researcher for Blunkett Sue Hayman: Cllr, runs a consultancy agency along with her husband Keir Starmer: Director of Public Prosecutions Gerald Jones: Cllr and deputy council leader Rachel Maskell: Unite head of Health Conor McGinn: SpAd to Coaker Kate Osamor: GP Nick Simmonds Thomas: lawyer Holly Walker Lynch: MEP office Cath Smith: social worker, previously worked in some MPs offices Peter Kyle: charity sector
Margaret Greenwood: web consultant, former teacher Ruth Cadbury: Cllr for 25 years Rupa Huq: university lecturer Wes Streeting: deputy council leader Joan Ryan: former MP Chris Matheson: industrial officer at Unite Rob Morris: former MP Paula Sherrif: Cllr; works for Virgin Care Imran Hussain: Deputy council leader, lawyer Anna Turley: former SpAd Clive Lewis: worked at BBC Neil Coyle: Cllr, works in the office of an MP Catherina West: former Islington council leader until 2013, previously worked for Lammy Dawn Butler: former MP Julie Cooper: former council leader Jeff Smith: Cllr since 1997 Jo Stevens: solicitor Daniel Zeichner: works at Unison Thangam Debbonaire: Women's Aid and a anti violance organization Jeff Philipps: Dromey's office Naz Sha: charity
Speedy I doubt Rubio will be nominee, but he is almost certain to be VP nominee, either to Jeb or Walker or Christie, one of whom in my view will end up being the nominee to face Hillary
Speaking of safe seats and Spads, what happened with Ed Balls? He barely held his seat last time, lost it this time - did he not get a safe seat as reward for services rendered?
Fox Well Cameron was a SPAD in a safe seat and a little PR. Cooper was economics correspondent for the Independent, Tristram Hunt a history academic
Yeah. Pretty depressing isn't it. At least Burnham has a vague connection to his area. The rest are Blow-ins, including Liz Kendall. She was Patricia Hewitts SPAD then inherited the seat. I recall Hewitt had no connection to the area, but was SPAD to Neil Kinnock before being dropped into Leicester West when Greville Janner retired.
I hate the whole "safe seat" culture.
Me too. The "rotten boroughs" of the 21st century.
Just like those who got the patronage of some aristo in the 18th C all it seemingly takes is for some SPAD or other favoured insider to get the right patronage and get the nomination for a "safe" seat and they're pretty much guaranteed to be in Parliament for as long as they want.
Plus ca change......
I don't know the best way out of it though. A PR system with lists is even worse.
I wonder if Liz is getting trouble with the nominations.
Does anyone know who, aside from Gordon Brown, was the last university educated Prime Minister who did not go to Oxford?
I only ask because looking at the list of Labour Leader candidates only two (Cooper and Burnham) went to Oxford (the other three are Cambridge graduates).
I think this sensible plan will last for all of 5 minutes before the sky is falling, project fear campaign kicks in. Interesting to note Dave is rushing through the EU referendum legislation, May 2016 is looking increasingly likely. Junker will be looking forward to this !!
On the Tory side I know Sajid Javid and Justine Greening are former investment bankers Not new of course
Well anyone think Doncaster might come up for him if other Ed decides to do something different? (Euro commissioner/ university lecturer/ pitcher for the Redsox/run a bar in Ibiza?)
I think this sensible plan will last for all of 5 minutes before the sky is falling, project fear campaign kicks in. Interesting to note Dave is rushing through the EU referendum legislation, May 2016 is looking increasingly likely. Junker will be looking forward to this !!
Won't EU IN be project fear about what happens if we leave, a la the IndyRef?
On the Tory side I know Sajid Javid and Justine Greening are former investment bankers Not new of course
Well anyone think Doncaster might come up for him if other Ed decides to do something different? (Euro commissioner/ university lecturer/ pitcher for the Redsox/run a bar in Ibiza?)
Speedy I doubt Rubio will be nominee, but he is almost certain to be VP nominee, either to Jeb or Walker or Christie, one of whom in my view will end up being the nominee to face Hillary
I've looked around the polls (the American ones not the British trash) to see how the race is shaping in the first 3 states, I think at presently Walker has a 50% of getting the nomination with Bush and Rudio at 15% each, Paul with 10% and Huckabee, Cruz and Carson at 5% each. It's all about the debates though.
Walker's pool of voters are shared with Huckabee, Christie and Rubio, if he wins Iowa he will win N.Hampshire and be the one to be crushed by Hillary.
Christie has 0% chance right now of being the unlucky one of winning the nomination, he is the jointly most hated republican inside the republican party alongside Jeb Bush and unlike Bush he has no family connections to push him above the meager share of the vote he gets now.
Far be it from me to be unduly cynical, but there may be an element of self-interest in that.
It will help him get a good job under Burnham -- but if Burnham loses, then it will be much harder for Jarvis to present himself as a fresh new face after GE 2020.
I was being much much more cynical. I assumed that he was supporting the candidate who, while looking serious, is most likely to lose in 2020 so that he was then better placed to present himself as the answer.
If he then wants to take a different direction, it would be easier for him to say "look we've tried that line. It didn't work. We have to do things differently."
On the Tory side I know Sajid Javid and Justine Greening are former investment bankers Not new of course
Well anyone think Doncaster might come up for him if other Ed decides to do something different? (Euro commissioner/ university lecturer/ pitcher for the Redsox/run a bar in Ibiza?)
Has anyone seen or heard from Ed?
He must be feeling a bit fed up.
Probably throwing some shapes into the wee small hours in the foam disco at Pacha.
You don't get to do that as First Lord of the Treasury so there are compensations.
Fox Well Cameron was a SPAD in a safe seat and a little PR. Cooper was economics correspondent for the Independent, Tristram Hunt a history academic
Yeah. Pretty depressing isn't it. At least Burnham has a vague connection to his area. The rest are Blow-ins, including Liz Kendall. She was Patricia Hewitts SPAD then inherited the seat. I recall Hewitt had no connection to the area, but was SPAD to Neil Kinnock before being dropped into Leicester West when Greville Janner retired.
I hate the whole "safe seat" culture.
Me too. The "rotten boroughs" of the 21st century.
Just like those who got the patronage of some aristo in the 18th C all it seemingly takes is for some SPAD or other favoured insider to get the right patronage and get the nomination for a "safe" seat and they're pretty much guaranteed to be in Parliament for as long as they want.
Plus ca change......
I don't know the best way out of it though. A PR system with lists is even worse.
I wonder if Liz is getting trouble with the nominations.
The obvious way to change it is for the voters not to turn these places into safe seats in the first place. One other way may be to have some form of primary so that all voters can vote on who gets chosen.
Expensive. Parties will hate losing control. A risk of not enough voters voting in primaries. But if we want a political class more responsive to us then something akin to the primary system may be the only way to go.
Or we could adopt the French approach: put up with appalling leaders for a very long time, then get so furious that only paving stones, ropes and lampposts will do!!
Liz Kendall is probably facing the "Old cardinals don't vote for young Popes" problem.
Fox Well Cameron was a SPAD in a safe seat and a little PR. Cooper was economics correspondent for the Independent, Tristram Hunt a history academic
Yeah. Pretty depressing isn't it. At least Burnham has a vague connection to his area. The rest are Blow-ins, including Liz Kendall. She was Patricia Hewitts SPAD then inherited the seat. I recall Hewitt had no connection to the area, but was SPAD to Neil Kinnock before being dropped into Leicester West when Greville Janner retired. I hate the whole "safe seat" culture.
Churchill was MP for Oldham. Then Manchester North West and then Dundee. Then Epping. None particularly near his birthplace.
Speaking of safe seats and Spads, what happened with Ed Balls? He barely held his seat last time, lost it this time - did he not get a safe seat as reward for services rendered?
Boundary changes. He used to have a safe seat.
Ironically, Con to Labour swing in Yorks & Humber was 2.52% after London and the North West.
I think this sensible plan will last for all of 5 minutes before the sky is falling, project fear campaign kicks in. Interesting to note Dave is rushing through the EU referendum legislation, May 2016 is looking increasingly likely. Junker will be looking forward to this !!
Won't EU IN be project fear about what happens if we leave, a la the IndyRef?
I think both IN and OUT will end up running Project Fear campaigns, stoked up by the MSM. The people we all need to look out for are the non-silver surfer OAP's who will be completely reliant on the MSM and will be scared witless by both sides, this is what ended up happening in Scotland when BT Project Fear really kicked in.
Looks like Burnham is going to get it. And you know what, judging by this video (embedded in this article) he's not a bad choice. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-leadership-battle-dan-jarvis-5719998 Articulate but *ordinary*. Political without being a plonker (cf Milibands D and E). The northern accent helps - it just does. After 5 more years of posho Tories, Burnham's flat Liverpudlian vowels might easily be welcomed by a bored electorate. I'm not kidding. He's probably the best bet. Cooper is too flat and dull. Kendall too peripheral. Hunt is ridiculous. Dunno who Creagh is. As long as Burnham drops the lefty socialist crap (and to me he looks smart and ambitious enough to do just that), he could be PM in 2020.
I think this sensible plan will last for all of 5 minutes before the sky is falling, project fear campaign kicks in. Interesting to note Dave is rushing through the EU referendum legislation, May 2016 is looking increasingly likely. Junker will be looking forward to this !!
Won't EU IN be project fear about what happens if we leave, a la the IndyRef?
I think both IN and OUT will end up running Project Fear campaigns, stoked up by the MSM. The people we all need to look out for are the non-silver surfer OAP's who will be completely reliant on the MSM and will be scared witless by both sides, this is what ended up happening in Scotland when BT Project Fear really kicked in.
I am sure that both will be running negative campaigns. Don't they always?
It will be an interesting one, with the SNP campaigning alongside Labour and the LibDems...
Interesting article by Dan Hanam on how the EU OUT campaign should endeavour to run a positive and cheerful campaign: http://www.capx.co/nine-ways-for-eurosceptics-to-win-the-referendum/ I think this sensible plan will last for all of 5 minutes before the sky is falling, project fear campaign kicks in. Interesting to note Dave is rushing through the EU referendum legislation, May 2016 is looking increasingly likely. Junker will be looking forward to this !!
Interststing to note how 'Dave' promising a referendum is disbelieved one minute and then if he does bring it in its too soon. Someone needs to wake up and smell the coffee. Instant opposition at every turn to everything is straight out of the hugely successful labour playbook.
I think both IN and OUT will end up running Project Fear campaigns, stoked up by the MSM. The people we all need to look out for are the non-silver surfer OAP's who will be completely reliant on the MSM and will be scared witless by both sides, this is what ended up happening in Scotland when BT Project Fear really kicked in.
This time it will be tricky, unlike the scottish referendum were young people were OUT and old people were IN and the Media all in favour of IN, this time old people will be for OUT and young people for IN with the Media divided.
The differential turnout will favour the OUT vote this time and half the Media will be for OUT.
But all that is theoretical as the Government will be in favour of IN after some window-dressing vague proposals to consider some unspecified reform some time in the future when the time is right .
Articulate but *ordinary*. Political without being a plonker (cf Milibands D and E). The northern accent helps - it just does.
After 5 more years of posho Tories, Burnham's flat Liverpudlian vowels might easily be welcomed by a bored electorate.
I'm not kidding. He's probably the best bet. Cooper is too flat and dull. Kendall too peripheral. Hunt is ridiculous. Dunno who Creagh is.
As long as Burnham drops the lefty socialist crap (and to me he looks smart and ambitious enough to do just that), he could be PM in 2020.
A Liverpool accent is like the Neapolitan one in Italy. It's generally associated with scallywags and worse.
If he sounded like Alan Bennett maybe you'd have a point.
Burnham's difficulty is if he becomes leader without there being an effective challenge or a debate. You need to win the leadership after a proper fight so you get the legitimacy of having actually won rather than of having either stitched up the election or terrified everyone else into not standing.
And you need that legitimacy so that you have the strength to withstand the problems you face and to push foward the changes you want to make. And to stop or deal with the inevitable back-biting.
That's what did for Brown and Milliband. And it meant that - pretty much ever since Blair left - Labour have not had the debate and done the hard thinking about what they are for which is why they are in the mess they're in now.
Why does Labour want to give the impression that they're scared of debate? Beats me.
If you're not challenged - and vigorously - how do you avoid coming out with the platitudinous rubbish which has consisted of Labour's offering for the last decade? Labour's intellectual roots have withered much as SLAB has done because they got lazy and complacent and thought that all they needed to do was shout "Tory" and it would be enough.
One thing I liked about Thatcher was that she always gave the impression that she was up for a political argument with anybody. Indeed, she'd have probably started an argument in an empty room.
The most refreshing thing about the Tory leadership campaign in 2005 was the fact that there were a whole load of contenders and they had to make their pitch and the person who most people thought would win in early 2005 didn't.
I am sure that both will be running negative campaigns. Don't they always?
Shh, don't break one of the cardinal rules of politics - pretending that only one side at a time runs a negative campaign.
On Burnham, I said earlier I couldn't remember why I had thought he was the best in the leadership campaign in 2010, and settled on assuming it was by default given who the other candidates were (Blandy and Blandy, Ed Balls and Diane Abbott), but maybe it was because he does look and sound pretty normal, simple as that.
What will be interesting for Labour in the coming years is to see if they really will not keep schtum in the event their leader turns out to be crap - rather than sticking it out in the name of unity - or if they even over compensate.
Looks like Burnham is going to get it. And you know what, judging by this video (embedded in this article) he's not a bad choice. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-leadership-battle-dan-jarvis-5719998 Articulate but *ordinary*. Political without being a plonker (cf Milibands D and E). The northern accent helps - it just does. After 5 more years of posho Tories, Burnham's flat Liverpudlian vowels might easily be welcomed by a bored electorate. I'm not kidding. He's probably the best bet. Cooper is too flat and dull. Kendall too peripheral. Hunt is ridiculous. Dunno who Creagh is. As long as Burnham drops the lefty socialist crap (and to me he looks smart and ambitious enough to do just that), he could be PM in 2020.
Oh dear - it's all doom and gloom again.
Far from it. I am delighted we will have 5 more years of Tory government, which should, hopefully, fix the economy.
But after that the country might need a change. Miliband's 70s statism would have been disastrous. If Burnham can go back to Blairism (without the spending) - and it sounds like he might - then I'll be content. I don't want to live in a one party state. Nor do I want to see the UK break up, which it could do if English Tories rule forever.
What the hell is Blairism without the spending?
A chimera. A Cheshire cat grin. Sob-filled comments on the deaths of important people. Illegal invasions. Behind the scenes bullying by your courtiers. Unlimited immigration. A refusal to do anything difficult.
Far from it. I am delighted we will have 5 more years of Tory government, which should, hopefully, fix the economy.
But after that the country might need a change. Miliband's 70s statism would have been disastrous. If Burnham can go back to Blairism (without the spending) - and it sounds like he might - then I'll be content. I don't want to live in a one party state. Nor do I want to see the UK break up, which it could do if English Tories rule forever.
One think is certain if Burnham becomes Blairite is that the LD might be saved from extinction, not to mention Labour losing Bristol W. and Norwich S. to the Greens.
Labour is facing a 3 front war: On the left side vs the LD, Greens and the SNP. On the centre vs the Tories. On the right vs UKIP.
It first needs to decide who the enemy is, then create a realistic strategy to defeat the enemy and then you choose the leader that fits the strategy.
A chimera. A Cheshire cat grin. Sob-filled comments on the deaths of important people. Illegal invasions. Behind the scenes bullying by your courtiers. Unlimited immigration. A refusal to do anything difficult.
Have I missed anything important?
That is also an accurate description of Cameroonianism which is probably the same thing.
Margaret Greenwood: web consultant, former teacher Ruth Cadbury: Cllr for 25 years Rupa Huq: university lecturer Wes Streeting: deputy council leader Joan Ryan: former MP Chris Matheson: industrial officer at Unite Rob Morris: former MP Paula Sherrif: Cllr; works for Virgin Care Imran Hussain: Deputy council leader, lawyer Anna Turley: former SpAd Clive Lewis: worked at BBC Neil Coyle: Cllr, works in the office of an MP Catherina West: former Islington council leader until 2013, previously worked for Lammy Dawn Butler: former MP Julie Cooper: former council leader Jeff Smith: Cllr since 1997 Jo Stevens: solicitor Daniel Zeichner: works at Unison Thangam Debbonaire: Women's Aid and a anti violance organization Jeff Philipps: Dromey's office Naz Sha: charity
A Councillor is NOT a job-or at least it shouldn't be.
A chimera. A Cheshire cat grin. Sob-filled comments on the deaths of important people. Illegal invasions. Behind the scenes bullying by your courtiers. Unlimited immigration. A refusal to do anything difficult.
Have I missed anything important?
That is also an accurate description of Cameroonianism which is probably the same thing.
@SeanT: I most certainly do not want to return to Blairism - whatever that is. I think Blair will be judged by history as having done some almost irreparable damage to Britain's political and ethical culture.
And it will take a long time and very real effort to repair what Blair broke. Underneath all the charm and smiles and love of money and refusal to tax like old Labour, Blair turned the Labour party into a statist, illiberal and authoritarian party and broke the trust which we ought to have in our PMs in matters of war. Because he could not nationalise companies he sought to nationalise our lives. He was a narcissistic weasel with a Messiah complex who should never have been given the levers of power.
On the Tory side I know Sajid Javid and Justine Greening are former investment bankers Not new of course
Well anyone think Doncaster might come up for him if other Ed decides to do something different? (Euro commissioner/ university lecturer/ pitcher for the Redsox/run a bar in Ibiza?)
Has anyone seen or heard from Ed?
He must be feeling a bit fed up.
Too true-worse election performance than Brown
Replaced by the "better leader candidate" Burnham.
Oxford doing a lot better in the PM stakes I note. Does Cambridge not offer PPE? (I kid, just as a pure guess I would assume most PMs did not study PPE)
SeanT Agreed, if the Tories have produced a surplus in 2018 after 3/4 more years of austerity the voters may want more investment in public services again and the Tories could by then be divided after EU ref. I could see Burnham or Cooper winning an election in a way I could not see Miliband and Brown doing so, they are not as good as Blair, and Umunna was my original pick, but that does not mean they could not beat Osborne in 2020
SeanT Agreed, if the Tories have produced a surplus in 2018 after 3/4 more years of austerity the voters may want more investment in public services again and the Tories could by then be divided after EU ref. I could see Burnham or Cooper winning an election in a way I could not see Miliband and Brown doing so, they are not as good as Blair, and Umunna was my original pick, but that does not mean they could not beat Osborne in 2020
I doubt that Osbourne will be leader in 2020, he'll probably be chancellor - but won't be leader.
What will be interesting for Labour in the coming years is to see if they really will not keep schtum in the event their leader turns out to be crap - rather than sticking it out in the name of unity - or if they even over compensate.
I don't know, the only thing certain is that all the current candidates are crap.
I'm sticking on my island with Graham Allen who is far smarter and more charismatic than those candidates, in my opinion he is the man for the job:
Speedy The way I see it either Paul or Huckabee will win Iowa, Cruz may win SC, and whoever of Bush or Walker or Christie wins NH will end up being the nominee after a bruising primary battle. If Bush runs he will probably win it in the end, if he stays out Christie could have a chance if he wins NH (and it is his neighbouring state). Walker is duller than Romney and next year's Mitch Daniels in my view, I would be surprised if he ran in the end, and if Bush and Walker don't run the way is clear for Christie to become the establishment candidate
Articulate but *ordinary*. Political without being a plonker (cf Milibands D and E). The northern accent helps - it just does.
After 5 more years of posho Tories, Burnham's flat Liverpudlian vowels might easily be welcomed by a bored electorate.
I'm not kidding. He's probably the best bet. Cooper is too flat and dull. Kendall too peripheral. Hunt is ridiculous. Dunno who Creagh is.
As long as Burnham drops the lefty socialist crap (and to me he looks smart and ambitious enough to do just that), he could be PM in 2020.
Burnham will be PM only if the Tories mess it up so much that his awful record in government won't matter that much.
People don't seem to get that way before he was launching his one man NHS campaign, he was actually thought of as being on the right of the party - it's a huge reason he got no traction in 2010 - David M was the Blairite dauphin and so there wasn't much space for Burnham.
The main worries about Burnham are that a) he is tainted by association with the older generation, even though in government he tended to be the bloke who cleaned up after messes. For example the health secretary when things went wrong at mid-Staffs was Alan Johnson, Burnham in fact ordered the inquiry not long after becoming health sec. b) That the unions will back him too vehemently and enable him to be painted as continuity Miliband. Both would be unfair, but when was politics ever fair?
He'll be a far more formidable opponent than Ed, but arguably needs to use the leadership campaign to redefine himself as someone prepared to move away from the comforting but ultimately unappealing sops that defined the Miliband era. Taking on McClusky would be a start.
I do not think that Blairism was particularly about spending. It was about the pursuit of power.
The 1997 government did not overspend, that was the 2001 one.
It most certainly was about spending - certainly after 1999. And it spent because it had all that lovely City money coming in. So it never had to answer the hard questions: do we need to do this? If we do, should the state do it? If the state does it, what is the objective? How do we know when we've reached it. How does the state do it most cost-effectively?
Blair was good at getting into power. He had no idea what to do with it when he got there or, if he did, he lacked the courage to do it.
About the only thing he stuck his neck out over was Iraq and he utterly poisoned the well with his dishonesty about that.
That was a catastrophic error as well as a moral failing. Not just for the usual reasons but because at a time when all Western countries are grappling with whether and in what circumstances we should deal with terrorism and the effects of civil war and upheaval in distant land we in the UK have been so burnt not just by what he did but by how he did it that we are largely disengaging at a time when, just possibly, it is dangerous of us to do so.
Speedy The way I see it either Paul or Huckabee will win Iowa, Cruz may win SC, and whoever of Bush or Walker or Christie wins NH will end up being the nominee after a bruising primary battle. If Bush runs he will probably win it in the end, if he stays out Christie could have a chance if he wins NH (and it is his neighbouring state). Walker is duller than Romney and next year's Mitch Daniels in my view, I would be surprised if he ran in the end, and if Bush and Walker don't run the way is clear for Christie to become the establishment candidate
If Paul wins Iowa, he wins N.Hampshire and the nomination. But I cannot at present see Paul winning Iowa, Walker has the social conservatives and the Iowa establishment in his grip right now, while the libertarians have split towards Cruz and Carson.
Paul's only realistic chance are the debates, but he needs to stay relevant during the summer until the first debate in August.
Christie has no chance, even if he escapes jail he is still the most unpopular republican along with Jeb Bush within the Republican party.
That should be rock solid Labour but the Tories are only 1800 votes behind now. 2020 could see Chester go Labour and Wrexham go Tory, that'd be quite something.
On the subject of Chester, I was speaking to a Chester Green before the election, and he said the Greens were likely to run a Parliamentary candidate next time. Devastating news for Labour this time in a seat that close and middle class ...
Comments
I will post hopefully more rational comments as that election nears.
Up the workers?
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/British_Prime_Ministers
Shouldn't take long to collate for the LDs...
(And even quicker for kippers and Greens)
Stephen Pound, Kevan Jones, Chris Bryant, Kate Green, John Healey, Spellar, Vernon Coaker, Seema Malhotra, Paula Sherriff, Jess Phillips, Khalid Mahmood, Sharon Hodgson, Helen Goodman, David Hanson and Shabana Mahmood
Chelsea 1-0 down vs West Bromwich.
It is clearly what the people want...
Looked pretty slick. 50-1 at Ladbrokes perhaps value.
I expect a Labour minority propped up by Plaid. Hard to see the Libs recovering hugely in a short time though a bit of uptick may register. Tories to remain the official opposition
I hate the whole "safe seat" culture.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/foxs-chris-wallace-grills-rubio-on-his-iraq-war-flip/
He's worse than Romney in front of the camera.
Not that it matters, since Hillary is going to win anyway.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tristram_Hunt
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/im-backing-andy-burnham-next-5720021
Just like those who got the patronage of some aristo in the 18th C all it seemingly takes is for some SPAD or other favoured insider to get the right patronage and get the nomination for a "safe" seat and they're pretty much guaranteed to be in Parliament for as long as they want.
Plus ca change......
Fox Yes, same applies to Creagh
Not new of course
Karin Smyth "manager with the NHS Bristol Clinical Commissioning Group.In the past I have run an MP’s office and been the director of an NHS Trust"
Colleen Fletcher full time Cllr. First elected in 1992, she's 60, so maybe already retired. Latest job: Customer Services Office at Orbit Housing Group
Matthew Pennycook: Cllr 2010-2014. "I have spent the last ten years working in a number of roles in a range of charitable and voluntary sector"
Tulip Siddiq Cllr 2010-14; "I most recently worked for Brunswick Group LLP in corporate social responsibility,"
Vicky Foxcroft: Cllr 2010-14. She works for Unite
Richard Burgon: trade union lawyer (IIRC GMB)
Kate Hollern: council leader until 2014. I think she was doing it full time.
Marie Rimmer: former council leader, group leader for many decades...cllr since 1978
Ruth Smeeth: former Deputy Director of HOPE not hate (does it count as a job? I can't see anything else http://www.ruthsmeeth.org.uk/about)
Helen Hayes: Cllr 2010-14. "In 1998 I joined a colleague who had set up a fledgling small business called Town Centres Limited. Our company provided support to town centres that had taken a hit during the recession of the 1990s...We subsequently changed the name of our small company to Urban Practitioners and in 2011, we merged with a large firm of architects called Allies and Morrison "
Stephen Kinnock: wors for Xyntéo
Justin Madders: employment lawyer
Louise Haigh: works for Aviva
Rebecca Long Baily: solicitor
Carolyn Harris: office manager of retiring MP
Jo Cox: Oxfam, an anti slavery charity, previously Save the Children and the NSPCC, Lady Kinnock
Angela Reyner: Unison lay official, previously worked in social care
Melanie Onn: union organizer
Judith Cummins: full time cllr
Christina Rees: cllr and squash coach
Peter Dowd: council leader
Harry Harpham: deputy council leader, researcher for Blunkett
Sue Hayman: Cllr, runs a consultancy agency along with her husband
Keir Starmer: Director of Public Prosecutions
Gerald Jones: Cllr and deputy council leader
Rachel Maskell: Unite head of Health
Conor McGinn: SpAd to Coaker
Kate Osamor: GP
Nick Simmonds Thomas: lawyer
Holly Walker Lynch: MEP office
Cath Smith: social worker, previously worked in some MPs offices
Peter Kyle: charity sector
Personally I wouldn't endorse any of the present candidates, my personal preference is Graham Allen.
Margaret Greenwood: web consultant, former teacher
Ruth Cadbury: Cllr for 25 years
Rupa Huq: university lecturer
Wes Streeting: deputy council leader
Joan Ryan: former MP
Chris Matheson: industrial officer at Unite
Rob Morris: former MP
Paula Sherrif: Cllr; works for Virgin Care
Imran Hussain: Deputy council leader, lawyer
Anna Turley: former SpAd
Clive Lewis: worked at BBC
Neil Coyle: Cllr, works in the office of an MP
Catherina West: former Islington council leader until 2013, previously worked for Lammy
Dawn Butler: former MP
Julie Cooper: former council leader
Jeff Smith: Cllr since 1997
Jo Stevens: solicitor
Daniel Zeichner: works at Unison
Thangam Debbonaire: Women's Aid and a anti violance organization
Jeff Philipps: Dromey's office
Naz Sha: charity
Boundary changes. He used to have a safe seat.
I wonder if Liz is getting trouble with the nominations.
With STV you can do the same
http://www.capx.co/nine-ways-for-eurosceptics-to-win-the-referendum/
I think this sensible plan will last for all of 5 minutes before the sky is falling, project fear campaign kicks in. Interesting to note Dave is rushing through the EU referendum legislation, May 2016 is looking increasingly likely. Junker will be looking forward to this !!
He must be feeling a bit fed up.
I've looked around the polls (the American ones not the British trash) to see how the race is shaping in the first 3 states, I think at presently Walker has a 50% of getting the nomination with Bush and Rudio at 15% each, Paul with 10% and Huckabee, Cruz and Carson at 5% each.
It's all about the debates though.
Walker's pool of voters are shared with Huckabee, Christie and Rubio, if he wins Iowa he will win N.Hampshire and be the one to be crushed by Hillary.
Christie has 0% chance right now of being the unlucky one of winning the nomination, he is the jointly most hated republican inside the republican party alongside Jeb Bush and unlike Bush he has no family connections to push him above the meager share of the vote he gets now.
If he then wants to take a different direction, it would be easier for him to say "look we've tried that line. It didn't work. We have to do things differently."
You don't get to do that as First Lord of the Treasury so there are compensations.
Expensive. Parties will hate losing control. A risk of not enough voters voting in primaries. But if we want a political class more responsive to us then something akin to the primary system may be the only way to go.
Or we could adopt the French approach: put up with appalling leaders for a very long time, then get so furious that only paving stones, ropes and lampposts will do!!
Liz Kendall is probably facing the "Old cardinals don't vote for young Popes" problem.
It will be an interesting one, with the SNP campaigning alongside Labour and the LibDems...
Someone needs to wake up and smell the coffee. Instant opposition at every turn to everything is straight out of the hugely successful labour playbook.
The differential turnout will favour the OUT vote this time and half the Media will be for OUT.
But all that is theoretical as the Government will be in favour of IN after some window-dressing vague proposals to consider some unspecified reform some time in the future when the time is right .
If he sounded like Alan Bennett maybe you'd have a point.
Burnham's difficulty is if he becomes leader without there being an effective challenge or a debate. You need to win the leadership after a proper fight so you get the legitimacy of having actually won rather than of having either stitched up the election or terrified everyone else into not standing.
And you need that legitimacy so that you have the strength to withstand the problems you face and to push foward the changes you want to make. And to stop or deal with the inevitable back-biting.
That's what did for Brown and Milliband. And it meant that - pretty much ever since Blair left - Labour have not had the debate and done the hard thinking about what they are for which is why they are in the mess they're in now.
Why does Labour want to give the impression that they're scared of debate? Beats me.
If you're not challenged - and vigorously - how do you avoid coming out with the platitudinous rubbish which has consisted of Labour's offering for the last decade? Labour's intellectual roots have withered much as SLAB has done because they got lazy and complacent and thought that all they needed to do was shout "Tory" and it would be enough.
One thing I liked about Thatcher was that she always gave the impression that she was up for a political argument with anybody. Indeed, she'd have probably started an argument in an empty room.
The most refreshing thing about the Tory leadership campaign in 2005 was the fact that there were a whole load of contenders and they had to make their pitch and the person who most people thought would win in early 2005 didn't.
On Burnham, I said earlier I couldn't remember why I had thought he was the best in the leadership campaign in 2010, and settled on assuming it was by default given who the other candidates were (Blandy and Blandy, Ed Balls and Diane Abbott), but maybe it was because he does look and sound pretty normal, simple as that.
A chimera. A Cheshire cat grin. Sob-filled comments on the deaths of important people. Illegal invasions. Behind the scenes bullying by your courtiers. Unlimited immigration. A refusal to do anything difficult.
Have I missed anything important?
Labour is facing a 3 front war:
On the left side vs the LD, Greens and the SNP.
On the centre vs the Tories.
On the right vs UKIP.
It first needs to decide who the enemy is, then create a realistic strategy to defeat the enemy and then you choose the leader that fits the strategy.
I do not think that Blairism was particularly about spending. It was about the pursuit of power.
The 1997 government did not overspend, that was the 2001 one.
And it will take a long time and very real effort to repair what Blair broke. Underneath all the charm and smiles and love of money and refusal to tax like old Labour, Blair turned the Labour party into a statist, illiberal and authoritarian party and broke the trust which we ought to have in our PMs in matters of war. Because he could not nationalise companies he sought to nationalise our lives. He was a narcissistic weasel with a Messiah complex who should never have been given the levers of power.
Replaced by the "better leader candidate" Burnham.
Yup he should be really fed up.
I'm sticking on my island with Graham Allen who is far smarter and more charismatic than those candidates, in my opinion he is the man for the job:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRWsdB2ahbs
The main worries about Burnham are that a) he is tainted by association with the older generation, even though in government he tended to be the bloke who cleaned up after messes. For example the health secretary when things went wrong at mid-Staffs was Alan Johnson, Burnham in fact ordered the inquiry not long after becoming health sec. b) That the unions will back him too vehemently and enable him to be painted as continuity Miliband. Both would be unfair, but when was politics ever fair?
He'll be a far more formidable opponent than Ed, but arguably needs to use the leadership campaign to redefine himself as someone prepared to move away from the comforting but ultimately unappealing sops that defined the Miliband era. Taking on McClusky would be a start.
Blair was good at getting into power. He had no idea what to do with it when he got there or, if he did, he lacked the courage to do it.
About the only thing he stuck his neck out over was Iraq and he utterly poisoned the well with his dishonesty about that.
That was a catastrophic error as well as a moral failing. Not just for the usual reasons but because at a time when all Western countries are grappling with whether and in what circumstances we should deal with terrorism and the effects of civil war and upheaval in distant land we in the UK have been so burnt not just by what he did but by how he did it that we are largely disengaging at a time when, just possibly, it is dangerous of us to do so.
But I cannot at present see Paul winning Iowa, Walker has the social conservatives and the Iowa establishment in his grip right now, while the libertarians have split towards Cruz and Carson.
Paul's only realistic chance are the debates, but he needs to stay relevant during the summer until the first debate in August.
Christie has no chance, even if he escapes jail he is still the most unpopular republican along with Jeb Bush within the Republican party.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/chris-christie-favorable-rating