Trying to get rid of NHS Direct will be the classic "saving" that increases spending
Whenever I used them they were useless. the concept is great, but it needs to be better executed and, failing that, is a waste of money
Tim is right. Viewed with some scepticism when it was brought in, NHS Direct is near universally seen as an overwhelming success.
But of course it was a Labour success, so like the successful Building Schools for the Future and Future Jobs Fund it had to be smashed by the Tory simpletons.
This idea is reminiscent of the 80s when SDP/Liberal Alliance supporters were always claiming that a 'surge' was just around the corner. Didn't happen then, won't happen now.
Isnt the difference that SDP split the opposion while UKIP are splitting the majority of the government? So it feels like UKIP are having a tangible effect.
Agreed, but surely the Alliance had a tangible effect as they prevented Labour from being able to win a majority.
I don't generally comment very often on polling numbers because:
1) people read into them what they want to read into them 2) polling figures in 2013 are not polling figures in 2015 3) no one ever changes their minds about what they mean
But it's probably worth summarising a bit where we stand now, as I see it.
1) Labour have a consistent lead of roughly 10 points over the Conservatives. The gap is there or thereabouts with most polling companies right now. 2) That lead is built out of dislike of the Conservatives and this Government rather than any enthusiasm for Labour. 3) The public is pissed off in general (hence the buoyant UKIP polling figures). 4) The initial violent hatred for the Lib Dems is waning a bit, but Nick Clegg is still widely disliked.
So we seem to be in a holding pattern. The rating downgrade did not have the impact on public perceptions that I expected (I thought it would be a hammer blow for the Conservatives, but it seems to have been fully factored in by the public). But on the other hand, the budget has done nothing to improve Conservative fortunes. It still seems all to play for and much depends on how the economy performs. The British public, rightly, are results merchants.
There are a couple of big unknowns. Labour seems to draw much of its most enthusiastic current support from people who did not vote for them at the last election. If its polling figures fade before the next election, they will presumably fade among other groups. This suggests that Labour might do relatively better in some seats that it does not currently hold with big 2010 Lib Dem votes and relatively less well in seats that it does hold where the Lib Dems featured less in 2010. But how might this pan out?
The other big unknown is what current UKIP supporters will do in practice at the next general election. On the one hand, they are drawn disproportionately from the ranks of disgruntled ex-Conservatives, but on the other hand they are not offering protest support of Labour. These people seem very angry. When it comes to the next election, who do they hate most?
Looking at Yougov's figures in detail, UKIP supporters have a very poor opinion of the government, but dislike Labour far more. They support the Conservatives in power over Labour by a marin of 41-16%, and Cameron as PM over Milliband by 30-4%. If Cameron can persuade them that he's the lesser of two evils, I think he could win quite a lot of them over.
Of course, he does need to avoid insulting them, which may be a bit of a challenge for him.
This idea is reminiscent of the 80s when SDP/Liberal Alliance supporters were always claiming that a 'surge' was just around the corner. Didn't happen then, won't happen now.
Isnt the difference that SDP split the opposion while UKIP are splitting the majority of the government? So it feels like UKIP are having a tangible effect.
Agreed, but surely the Alliance had a tangible effect as they prevented Labour from being able to win a majority.
Even without the SDP, the Conservatives would have won in 1983 and 1987 by a country mile.
At this stage a Lab largest hung parliament looks most likely
A roughly 10 point VI lead across most of the polling. You have an odd way of looking at FPTP elections. A hung parliament needs a race to be extremely close. At this stage it just isn't.
Unless or until that gap gets closed a hung parliament is a pipe dream.
It's a fair assumption that in May 2015, Labour will win less than its current rating, and the Conservatives will win more. The question is, by how much in either case?
Topping - welcome to the site! Can't speak for others but I'd certainly expect the 10-point Labour lead to narrow by election day, as there's nearly always some swingback. It would, however, be a surprise to most people if it turned into a 7-point Tory lead, which is what Cameron needed to get fractionally over the line needed to form a coalition in 2010. People who still say they think that will happen tend to point to old polls whose methodology is now known to have been faulty.
The other problem for the Government is that there are rather a lot of Con/Lab marginals with substantial LibDem votes, and it's precisely these that will be most affected by LibDems switching to Labour in the numbers that all the polls have suggested. The main danger for Labour seems to me to be that the LibDems become such fierce critics of the government that they're seen as the main opposition - thus, paradoxically, Tories should be pleased if they're roundly abused by their coalition partners, as it's probably their best hope. Viewed in that light, Cable is much more of a Tory asset than Clegg. Isn't FPTP politics odd?
This idea is reminiscent of the 80s when SDP/Liberal Alliance supporters were always claiming that a 'surge' was just around the corner. Didn't happen then, won't happen now.
Isnt the difference that SDP split the opposion while UKIP are splitting the majority of the government? So it feels like UKIP are having a tangible effect.
Agreed, but surely the Alliance had a tangible effect as they prevented Labour from being able to win a majority.
Even without the SDP, the Conservatives would have won in 1983 and 1987 by a country mile.
Yes, but part of the reason they were so far ahead was the perception by the voters that the left was horribly split. Which it was. Without the breakaway SDP that effect wouldn't have been nearly so pronounced. It's an interesting "What if?" question.
Police says no further action will be taken against Eric Joyce
Staggering.
Some weeks ago he released a statement saying he can't say too much because the investigation was still going on but suggested the media's account of the events were not particularly accurate. http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/03/a-few-thoughts-re-events/
I sadly suspect if Eric Joyce had been black with a similar proven criminal record for drunkenness and violence in say Tottenham that he would not have got off with a slap on the wrist. Lack of evidence with all those witnesses or looking after a pollie who can spill the beans? After all, the Met have such a cracking record on these matters.
Please don't let Mandela die while Cameron is in office. The stomach churning sight of someone happy to take pro Apartheid lobbyists free holidays doing his furrowed brow act will require anti-sickness tablets by the bucketful
Just to make it clear I was referring to the 'brilliant' of the BBC wanting to cover it, rather than thinking that Mandela's illness was 'brilliant'
When Mandela croaks it'll make Diana's death look like The Man Who Never Was. There'll be at least a month of enforced national mourning, including the public stoning of anybody wearing a tie that isn't black. A one-off tax to pay for the erection of gilded statues of the great man in every London Borough.
They'll build a refrigerated tomb in South Africa where his mummified remains can be displayed, Lenin style, for the tourists.
And every employee of the BBC will find a reason to fly out there to attend the funeral.
I hope he lives for years yet, but only to spare us all that.
"If Cameron can persuade them that he's the lesser of two evils, I think he could win quite a lot of them over.
Of course, he does need to avoid insulting them, which may be a bit of a challenge for him."
Spot on, however your prescription requires Cameron to do two things that, so far, have been beyond him.
Frankly, from where I sit the difference between a Conservative Government under Cameron and a Labour Government under Miliband is so small as to not be worth worrying about. To quote, "He [Cameron] is the sort of chap that we used to describe at school as an utter spastic ... I think I would be more inspired by the sight of a cow pat."
Question is, are the ex-Lab 2010 LD voters hearing enough from Lab to tempt them “back”. On first view the answer is – it doesn’t matter: a process of elimination means Lab is their only home as it was previously. However, what if they do forgive the LDs for their various compromises (coalition is coalition after all) and begin to feel invested in the power that, as LD voters, they wield. They would lose that influence if there was a straight Lab win. Maybe some quite like that power and, if they can point to real LD policies that have been enacted, might want more of the same.
I don’t think there will be an automatic rush back to Labour. Much as people might decry it, I think they will come to feel that coalition government is a good thing and might want more of it.
@redcliffe62 - “I sadly suspect if Eric Joyce had been black with a similar proven criminal record for drunkenness and violence in say Tottenham…"
You maybe correct – however, without bringing race into the equation, I would posit that anyone other than an MP, in Whitehall of all places, who assaulted police while resisting arrest, would end up in the clink.
Whatever the final outcome of this latest bout of drunken violence, Joyce’s fall from grace is well and truly complete.
The cross-over theory has never been explained in relativity to margin-of-error.It does not amount to a trend which can be established over the long-term. In other words, a blip.
Please don't let Mandela die while Cameron is in office. The stomach churning sight of someone happy to take pro Apartheid lobbyists free holidays doing his furrowed brow act will require anti-sickness tablets by the bucketful
A Labour government in 2015 would be bad news for Britain and Labour.
IF I wasn't so concerned about what it would mean to the country I think I would enjoy watching Labour struggling in the new reality we are faced with.
A Labour government in 2015 would be bad news for Britain and Labour.
IF I wasn't so concerned about what it would mean to the country I think I would enjoy watching Labour struggling in the new reality we are faced with.
They will get a chance in the next 20 years, so you will see them struggle with it some time.
"When it comes to Westminster elections, the SNP are really poorly placed to take advantage of any Lib Dem weakness. There are very few of the Lib Dem seats where the SNP were remotely in contention in 2010.
This will prompt a fusillade of observations about SNP strength in those areas in 2011, but those were in different elections under a different system for a different purpose. 2010 looked much more like 2005 than 2007."
@antifrank, spot on. The SNP chose not to support the boundary changes in this Parliament, and that was a strategic mistake if they were serious about taking on their opponents and making further inroads at the next GE.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 2m Nick Clegg's account of what he's done re Mike Hancock seems full of serious discrepancies. I will outline in a blog shortly.
Anyone see a pattern of Clegg dealing with problems with lib dem sleazes?
He's a Lib Dem, what do you expect?
On LBC today Clegg denied receiving a solicitors letter on the subject. What is it about Lib Dem Leaderships collective amnesia on complaints from women and its inability to establish the facts on such matters?
"I know nutting Mr Fawlty" seems to be the Lib Dem spin
The Scotland football team may be dire, but they still have the best fans in the Tartan army, and a great sense of humour. This is a great example of pitching in to help get the game started despite the expected outcome. BBC Sport Scotland - World Cup: Half-naked Scots clear Serb pitch "Serbia's pitch at the Karadore Stadium needs to be cleared of snow to give the World Cup qualifier with Scotland any chance of being played. A few brave souls of the Tartan Army lend a hand."
People often vote negatively for the least worst option and 2015 could take that to a whole new level. Personally I think Labour will do surprisingly well in an election based on that premise.
lots of people who plan to vote Labour are not motivated by enthusiasm for Labour or any specific policies but just a general preference or dislike of the alternatives
But we already knew this; only a few weeks ago, tim told us that defeating the Conservatives is all that matters. Defining oneself by what one hates seems a rather dispiriting state of being, but to be fair tim does thrive on it.
Like it or not, the anti-Conservative Party is strong and extremely motivated; hence Cameron's (ex) detox strategy.
I would certainly describe myself as an anti-Tory who sits mainly on the centre left politically; Just as many on here, if they were honest, would describe themselves as centre-right anti-Labour first and foremost. My guess is that the majority of PB posters are antis, rather than pros: they support Labour or Tory as the least worst option. Obviously, there are exceptions (the SNP supporters, Richard Nabavi, Nick Palmer, for example) and also some free spirits, but not that many.
The Romanians who are in Britain already are the ones with permits to work I assume? The high skilled individuals that the economy needs to grow. The ones who turn up from Jan 1st next year will be the less skilled and less employable ones then. Those without the talent to steal from Asian jewelers.
Has anyone ever suggested to the EU that they should spend their money time and resources on improving the infrastructure, educational requirements, health services and general well being of the populations of poorer members before letting them run riot throughout the rest of the continent? Great solution to the problems faced by the Roma at home, let them, (force them),to all leave. The Romanian government has no problem with that.
There will be little or next to no movement of people from the extremely poor Roma communities of Bulgaria and Rumania to Britain next year will there? Tim doesn't think so. And we are all racists for even thinking it might happen. All cultures blend together quite wonderfully. Lovely. I will especially take heart from the new found patriotic oneness as British people of all ethnic backgrounds; white, black, asian, martian, unite to welcome the new visitors and the torrent of petty, (and not so petty), crimes in their neighborhoods.
Come on liberal lefties, embrace this cultural melting pot and tell us how lucky we will be on Jan 1st 2014.
Hmm, interesting results, but will need to wait a couple of months to see if the government have turned it around. If Q1 growth is positive (which is should be given the 0.3% service growth on Jan) then it will go quite some way to repairing the Chancellor's reputation.
The Romanians who are in Britain already are the ones with permits to work I assume? The high skilled individuals that the economy needs to grow. The ones who turn up from Jan 1st next year will be the less skilled and less employable ones then. Those without the talent to steal from Asian jewelers.
Has anyone ever suggested to the EU that they should spend their money time and resources on improving the infrastructure, educational requirements, health services and general well being of the populations of poorer members before letting them run riot throughout the rest of the continent? Great solution to the problems faced by the Roma at home, let them, (force them),to all leave. The Romanian government has no problem with that.
There will be little or next to no movement of people from the extremely poor Roma communities of Bulgaria and Rumania to Britain next year will there? Tim doesn't think so. And we are all racists for even thinking it might happen. All cultures blend together quite wonderfully. Lovely. I will especially take heart from the new found patriotic oneness as British people of all ethnic backgrounds; white, black, asian, martian, unite to welcome the new visitors and the torrent of petty, (and not so petty), crimes in their neighborhoods.
Come on liberal lefties, embrace this cultural melting pot and tell us how lucky we will be on Jan 1st 2014.
David,radio 5 have had a reporters in romania/bulgaria and yesterday morning,they interviewed quite afew romanians why the british were hostile to them coming to Britain.
What a shock,they came out with points of views that people like tim would find racist,one view went something like this - 'we are western like you,it's the roma's that give us a bad name' but all who they interviewed blamed the roma community.
lots of people who plan to vote Labour are not motivated by enthusiasm for Labour or any specific policies but just a general preference or dislike of the alternatives
But we already knew this; only a few weeks ago, tim told us that defeating the Conservatives is all that matters. Defining oneself by what one hates seems a rather dispiriting state of being, but to be fair tim does thrive on it.
...My guess is that the majority of PB posters are antis, rather than pros: they support Labour or Tory as the least worst option. Obviously, there are exceptions (the SNP supporters, Richard Nabavi, Nick Palmer, for example) and also some free spirits, but not that many.
That seems a reasonable supposition. You just get more whining about the injustice or unhealthiness of an 'anti' vote from Tories because the anti-tory feeling is generally stronger and more unified for many people.
The Labour 2015 -2017 government is shaping up to be the most calamitous in our history. They will lead us to a default.
Patrick,
If Mr Carney's BoE is buying 100% of all gilts sold by anybody at all, what do you think uk default actually looks like?
Like inflation gone silly. We're suffering it already to an annoying but milder degree (inflation way higher than interest rates so assets / savings being steadily wiped out).
Like it or not, the anti-Conservative Party is strong and extremely motivated; hence Cameron's (ex) detox strategy.
I would certainly describe myself as an anti-Tory who sits mainly on the centre left politically; Just as many on here, if they were honest, would describe themselves as centre-right anti-Labour first and foremost. My guess is that the majority of PB posters are antis, rather than pros: they support Labour or Tory as the least worst option. Obviously, there are exceptions (the SNP supporters, Richard Nabavi, Nick Palmer, for example) and also some free spirits, but not that many.
Who do lefties vote for in 2015 if Ed continues to be crap?
I admire those people who can keep the same political views year in year out without any reference to changing circumstances. I have difficulty agreeing with myself two days running.
Like it or not, the anti-Conservative Party is strong and extremely motivated; hence Cameron's (ex) detox strategy.
I would certainly describe myself as an anti-Tory who sits mainly on the centre left politically; Just as many on here, if they were honest, would describe themselves as centre-right anti-Labour first and foremost. My guess is that the majority of PB posters are antis, rather than pros: they support Labour or Tory as the least worst option. Obviously, there are exceptions (the SNP supporters, Richard Nabavi, Nick Palmer, for example) and also some free spirits, but not that many.
Who do lefties vote for in 2015 if Ed continues to be crap?
Miliband or no-one - I get the feeling the strength of anti-tory feeling from many who perceive themselves to be on the left would not let such disappointment manfiest in any other way, especially with the LDs as a lefty option worthless in the eyes of such people. I suppose technically if the 'right' of Labour are disappointed in Ed M for being crap theoretically not seeing the LDs as truly of the left anymore would not be as much of a hindrance, but the turnout in Labour strongholds suggest the LDs won't be a viable alternitive in reality.
The research shows the opposite, it saves money and has very high satisfaction rates.
But I'm sure your anecdote is what you believe, and that's what matters to the PB Tories
The research I have seen says that the most predominant recommendation is "go and talk to your doctor". Which achieves precisely zero.
If it was good at triaging and making a proper determination about the appropriate course of action then it would be helpful. But it isn't. And "satisfaction" ratings are worth diddly squat when you are assessing effectiveness.
But then I make my living working and investing in the healthcare space. And you work in a wine shop.
The research shows the opposite, it saves money and has very high satisfaction rates.
But I'm sure your anecdote is what you believe, and that's what matters to the PB Tories
The research I have seen says that the most predominant recommendation is "go and talk to your doctor". Which achieves precisely zero.
If it was good at triaging and making a proper determination about the appropriate course of action then it would be helpful. But it isn't. And "satisfaction" ratings are worth diddly squat when you are assessing effectiveness.
But then I make my living working and investing in the healthcare space. And you work in a wine shop.
I admire those people who can keep the same political views year in year out without any reference to changing circumstances. I have difficulty agreeing with myself two days running.
RT @MichaelLCrick: Nick Clegg's account of what he's done re Mike Hancock seems full of serious discrepancies. I will outline in a blog shortly.
It would be wise to fear the Crick I think.
Part of me thinks Clegg is inured to any scandal or criticism thesedays. He's still in place as there's little benefit to getting rid of him just now, that wouldn't be undone shortly, so until the time is right he's on autopilot.
JoeMurphyLondon Boris would destroy Ed Miliband's poll lead, @YouGov poll in tonight's @EveningStandard standard.co.uk/news/politics/… via @standardnews
"I'm not as sanguine as our host about the Lib Dem chances in Scotland. But the SNP still don't look well-placed to benefit. The Lib Dems have 11 Westminster seats in Scotland. At the 2010 election, the SNP were 2nd in one of them, 3rd in five of them and 4th in five of them. While Malcolm Bruce certainly looks vulnerable to the SNP, Labour look better placed than the SNP to benefit from a Lib Dem collapse."
I would refer you to the Ashcroft megapoll, which clearly shows that the SNP would benefit far more than Labour from a Scottish Lib Dem collapse. The SNP would gain six seats from the Lib Dems - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Danny Alexander), Northeast Fife (Menzies Campbell), Gordon (Malcolm Bruce), Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (ex-Lord Thurso), Argyll and Bute (Alan Reid) and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Robert Smith).
JackW would tell you, of course, that none of this could ever happen in reality because the likes of Thurso and Reid are political colossuses, revered by the local public. "Well, it's a view."
The next govt will have to decide whether to keep on with Osbornes policies. Stalled deficit reduction and a deliberate inflationary bubble
1. "Stalled deficit"
ONS Public Sector Finances - February 2013
Let's look at Public Sector Net Borrowing
For the period April 2012 to February 2013, the public sector net borrowing, excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex), was £66.9 billion, which was £37.3 billion lower than in the same period of the previous year, when PSNB ex was £104.2 billion.
In 2011/12 the public sector net borrowing, excluding the temporary effects of the financial interventions (PSNB ex), was £120.9 billion, which was £20.0 billion lower than in 2010/11, when PSNB ex was £140.9 billion. The £20.0 billion drop in PSNB ex between 2010/11 and 2011/12 is composed of a £9.8 billion reduction in net investment and £10.2 billion reduction in the current budget deficit.
So let's put this in a column to make it easy to understand:
Full Year 2009/10 £158.9 bn Full Year 2010/11 £140.9 bn 12% reduction Full Year 2011/12 £120.9 bn 34% reduction Year to date 2012 £ 66.9 bn 45% reduction
2. "A deliberate inflationary bubble"
Nationwide published their House Price Index today:
The price of a typical home was unchanged between February and March, but was 0.8 per cent higher than March 2012, data published in the Nationwide House Price Index has shown.
The typical home in the UK is now worth £164,630, up from £162,638 in February but flat on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The Monthly Index was 329.8, compared to 329.7 in February 2013.
So a housing market where prices are just holding in nominal terms and falling in real terms.
With the BoE Financial Policy Committee requiring UK banks to find an extra £25 bn of capital by the end of 2013, there is a significant risk that the supply of finance to house purchasers will fall in the short term. Couple this with weak growth in the economy and household earnings, there is a real risk of a house price collapse over this period.
Osborne's stimulus to the housing market by providing temporary mortgage guarantees and equity participation is far more likely to stablise than inflate the housing market given short term lending constraints.
This explains why Robert Gardner, Chief Economist at Nationwide, commenting on the outlook for the housing market stated:
"House prices were unchanged between February and March after taking account of usual seasonal effects. However, in annual terms, house price growth moved into positive territory for the first time since February 2012.
"In recent months buyer demand has been supported by healthy rates of employment growth, as well as the funding for lending scheme, which has helped to reduce mortgage costs and increase credit availability."
He added: "At the same time housing supply has remained relatively constrained. The outlook for the housing market is unusually uncertain at present, in part because the prospects for the wider economy are unclear, but also as the impact of a number of policy initiatives is hard to gauge."
Osborne appears to have moved at just the right time with just the right amount of stimulus.
So... Whats the difference between 111 and NHS Direct ? I mean when would I call 111 when I wouldn't have called NHS Direct.
Anyway for most healthcare issues I think the procedure is this.
Q 1) Ask yourself is the pain in your neck still present from the tripping on paving stone/falling off the ladder/cycling into the open car door you had a couple of hours ago. A 1) Its still pretty bad, maybe not life threatening. Best see a doctor.
Step 2) Phone Doctor. Surgery booked up for the next two days...
Step 3) Head to A&E, best to be on the safe side. Get told you'll be seen to. Wait in A&E for 5 hours with no idea of what sort of priority you are in or even when you might be seen. Double the amount of time this seems like if it is Saturday night...
Step 4) Discharge yourself as the boredom of staring at the walls in A&E is outweighing the pain in your neck. You even forgot to bring a decent book, and your ipad is flat.
Step 5) Phone 111 or NHS Direct, spend an hour on hold and get told to see a Doctor.
Step 6) Book the Docs, nearest appointment is in 3 days. Pain is gone in 3 days anyway. Head to Docs, "Well I had a pain and its gone"
<i>"I'm not as sanguine as our host about the Lib Dem chances in Scotland. But the SNP still don't look well-placed to benefit. The Lib Dems have 11 Westminster seats in Scotland. At the 2010 election, the SNP were 2nd in one of them, 3rd in five of them and 4th in five of them. While Malcolm Bruce certainly looks vulnerable to the SNP, Labour look better placed than the SNP to benefit from a Lib Dem collapse."</i>
I would refer you to the Ashcroft megapoll, which clearly shows that the SNP would benefit far more than Labour from a Scottish Lib Dem collapse. The SNP would gain six seats from the Lib Dems - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Danny Alexander), Northeast Fife (Menzies Campbell), Gordon (Malcolm Bruce), Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (ex-Lord Thurso), Argyll and Bute (Alan Reid) and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Robert Smith).
JackW would tell you, of course, that none of this could ever happen in reality because the likes of Thurso and Reid are political colossuses, revered by the local public. "Well, it's a view."</blockquote>
I'm open to a bet on this, if you like. An evens bet that the SNP will take these six seats at the 2015? Stakes of your choice?
If we're getting into the parsing of the word instead of the polling evidence it's not really particularly helpful. The lib dems have been been been basically flatlining around 10% since the end of 2010. Is that robust or consistent? It hardly matters, it's constant and shows little sign of change either.
There has been quite a lot of change. The LDs were down at 7 & 8 with YouGov. Now it's in the range 12-13. But it spoils your story.
Also to note that the SNP are going to do nohing like as well against the LDs in Scottish seats @ GE2015.
LOL, Lib Dems will be lucky to have enough to fill a phonebox
"I'm open to a bet on this, if you like. An evens bet that the SNP will take these six seats at the 2015? Stakes of your choice?"
Your own claim was not that the SNP would fail to win just one of those six seats, but that they would benefit less than Labour from a Scottish Lib Dem collapse. I'm willing to have a bet with you on that. You win if Labour gain more SLD seats than the SNP, I win if the SNP gain more SLD seats than Labour, the bet is void if the number of SLD seats gained by each party is equal, or if the SLD don't lose any seats at all. Agreed?
Question is, are the ex-Lab 2010 LD voters hearing enough from Lab to tempt them “back”. On first view the answer is – it doesn’t matter: a process of elimination means Lab is their only home as it was previously. However, what if they do forgive the LDs for their various compromises (coalition is coalition after all) and begin to feel invested in the power that, as LD voters, they wield. They would lose that influence if there was a straight Lab win. Maybe some quite like that power and, if they can point to real LD policies that have been enacted, might want more of the same.
I don’t think there will be an automatic rush back to Labour. Much as people might decry it, I think they will come to feel that coalition government is a good thing and might want more of it.
I'm sure there is a market for coalition government, though YouGov shows it's a fairly small one. But it's hard to vote for one! Your argument clearly holds good, potentially, in seats that the LibDems hold or might win. But what of the others?
I suppose the sophisticated thing if you fancy a Lab/Lib coalition would be to vote Lab in marginals up to about 20th on the Con/Lab marginal list and vote Con thereafter, but how many voters are able and willing to be that subtle? Voting LibDem in a Lab/Con marginal is essentially a statement of no strong preference for who actually wins, and the 2010 LibDem->Lab defector cohort is IMO the most vehemently anti-Tory group in the country. It would probably be easier for Cameron to gain votes from people who voted Labour in 2010, some of whom did it out of habit rather than active dislike.
The Boris poll sounds amusing, but "what would you do if..." polls are inherently dodgy, simultaneously leading and speculative.
JohnRentoul Also notable that switching Tory leader from Cam to Boris doesn't depress Lab score; Cons gain mostly from Others standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
JohnRentoul Notable "EdM effect" in that poll: if voters are reminded who Lab leader is, Lab's advantage closes from 10 pts to 6. standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
JohnRentoul Also notable that switching Tory leader from Cam to Boris doesn't depress Lab score; Cons gain mostly from Others
Yeah, right. People who either won't vote anyway, or who think Cammo's stance on gay marriage, the EU, welfare, and the pace of spending cuts is not right-wing enough, but who haven't yet discovered that Boris is, if anything, more Cameroon than Cameron is.
"I'm open to a bet on this, if you like. An evens bet that the SNP will take these six seats at the 2015? Stakes of your choice?"
Your own claim was not that the SNP would fail to win just one of those six seats, but that they would benefit less than Labour from a Scottish Lib Dem collapse. I'm willing to have a bet with you on that. You win if Labour gain more SLD seats than the SNP, I win if the SNP gain more SLD seats than Labour, the bet is void if the number of SLD seats gained by each party is equal, or if the SLD don't lose any seats at all. Agreed?
Yes, I'm happy to have a bet on that. For clarity, in the event that the Lib Dems gain seats in Scotland net, the bet is also void. Seats lost to the Conservatives or others are left out of the equation - this is a straight Labour/SNP bet.
Well, let's see. My salary is marginally less impressive than yours, I'm not blessed enough to live "in town", and I already have several ongoing bets with other PBers. So I'd probably better limit it to £20.
£20 is fine by me - I suspect for both of us it's the fun rather than the stake that motivates us anyway. I'll send you a private message so that we both have a record of it.
JohnRentoul Also notable that switching Tory leader from Cam to Boris doesn't depress Lab score; Cons gain mostly from Others
Yeah, right. People who either won't vote anyway, or who think Cammo's stance on gay marriage, the EU, welfare, and the pace of spending cuts is not right-wing enough, but who haven't yet discovered that Boris is, if anything, more Cameroon than Cameron is.
*If* boris did get the top job,I expect he will be a disaster for the tories.
Yes. Technically I doubt MilliBalls will default. But the exchange rate looks likely to trend erratically downwards until Francois Milliband regains the confidence of the foreign exchange markets - ie never.
So let's put this in a column to make it easy to understand:
Full Year 2009/10 £158.9 bn Full Year 2010/11 £140.9 bn 12% reduction Full Year 2011/12 £120.9 bn 34% reduction Year to date 2012 £ 66.9 bn 45% reduction.
Come on Sir, stop clouding these discussions with your anecdotes...
Well, let's see. My salary is marginally less impressive than yours, I'm not blessed enough to live "in town", and I already have several ongoing bets with other PBers. So I'd probably better limit it to £20.
Hmm a quick look at http://www.scotlandvotes.com/westminster/battleground-seats tells me that Inverness and Caithness & Sutherland are the key seats in this bet if I've understood it correctly. Argyll & Bute will be interesting to watch too on GE night. The maths does look to favour Labour though..
Like it or not, the anti-Conservative Party is strong and extremely motivated; hence Cameron's (ex) detox strategy.
I would certainly describe myself as an anti-Tory who sits mainly on the centre left politically; Just as many on here, if they were honest, would describe themselves as centre-right anti-Labour first and foremost. My guess is that the majority of PB posters are antis, rather than pros: they support Labour or Tory as the least worst option. Obviously, there are exceptions (the SNP supporters, Richard Nabavi, Nick Palmer, for example) and also some free spirits, but not that many.
Who do lefties vote for in 2015 if Ed continues to be crap?
That's easy: the candidate - LibDem or Labour - best placed to beat the Tory.
Good afternoon all , looking at the table in the thread header , there seems to be a lot of puff being posted by pbtories to cover what are very poor results . The percentage now wanting the Conservatives as part of a government 28 plus 7 , 35% is the equal lowest figure in the whole period and the percentage wanting Labour as part of a government is 31 plus 14 , 45% just 1% off the highest score in the table . The Conservatives are still clearly toxic .
OGH or anyone else, had a look at the various cycling markets around. The TdF one intrigues me, Chris Froome is an identical price (If now slightly shorter) on Betfair. Both at just under 2-1. Also anyone know why Cancellara is so short for Paris-Roubaix, 9-4 looks too short to me, maybe some value in 6-1 Boonen ?
Comments
But of course it was a Labour success, so like the successful Building Schools for the Future and Future Jobs Fund it had to be smashed by the Tory simpletons.
The (confidential) data I have reviewed is much less positive. I agree that the concept is great - but NHS Direct is achieving too little.
Think it would depend how the Hancock resignation plays, if indeed he does resign.
At Eastleigh, I don't think there was any significant anti-Huhne effect. Not sure about Hancock.
We need the input of local PBers. We must have somebody in the deep south who can assist.
"So we seem to be in a holding pattern."
Yeah, it's a bit like the weather at the moment. Nobody likes it, but there's not much sign of change and there's bugger all you can do about it.
Of course, he does need to avoid insulting them, which may be a bit of a challenge for him.
Fine Gael 38.41%
Fianna Fail 33.43
Sinn Fein 12.92
Direct Democracy Ireland 6.55
Labour 3.9
Turnout 37.95%
The other problem for the Government is that there are rather a lot of Con/Lab marginals with substantial LibDem votes, and it's precisely these that will be most affected by LibDems switching to Labour in the numbers that all the polls have suggested. The main danger for Labour seems to me to be that the LibDems become such fierce critics of the government that they're seen as the main opposition - thus, paradoxically, Tories should be pleased if they're roundly abused by their coalition partners, as it's probably their best hope. Viewed in that light, Cable is much more of a Tory asset than Clegg. Isn't FPTP politics odd?
Striking BBC staff will call it off "if the condition of Nelson Mandela worsens". Wow, hard ball.
Brilliant...
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/03/a-few-thoughts-re-events/
Lack of evidence with all those witnesses or looking after a pollie who can spill the beans? After all, the Met have such a cracking record on these matters.
just to avoid any misunderstanding of it....
They'll build a refrigerated tomb in South Africa where his mummified remains can be displayed, Lenin style, for the tourists.
And every employee of the BBC will find a reason to fly out there to attend the funeral.
I hope he lives for years yet, but only to spare us all that.
"If Cameron can persuade them that he's the lesser of two evils, I think he could win quite a lot of them over.
Of course, he does need to avoid insulting them, which may be a bit of a challenge for him."
Spot on, however your prescription requires Cameron to do two things that, so far, have been beyond him.
Frankly, from where I sit the difference between a Conservative Government under Cameron and a Labour Government under Miliband is so small as to not be worth worrying about. To quote, "He [Cameron] is the sort of chap that we used to describe at school as an utter spastic ... I think I would be more inspired by the sight of a cow pat."
Why would that be a dilemma for me? Like all decent people I side with the victims of crime,
Presumably as you think all immigrants are a plus for Britain, and hate people from higher social classes, you side with the Romanian gangs...
maybe they were the same 10 officers involved with Mitchell...
Hi Nick thanks for the welcome.
Question is, are the ex-Lab 2010 LD voters hearing enough from Lab to tempt them “back”. On first view the answer is – it doesn’t matter: a process of elimination means Lab is their only home as it was previously. However, what if they do forgive the LDs for their various compromises (coalition is coalition after all) and begin to feel invested in the power that, as LD voters, they wield. They would lose that influence if there was a straight Lab win. Maybe some quite like that power and, if they can point to real LD policies that have been enacted, might want more of the same.
I don’t think there will be an automatic rush back to Labour. Much as people might decry it, I think they will come to feel that coalition government is a good thing and might want more of it.
If Mr Carney's BoE is buying 100% of all gilts sold by anybody at all, what do you think uk default actually looks like?
Sums up the jerks presenting our News. I hope the BBC wouldn't let them back early.
You maybe correct – however, without bringing race into the equation, I would posit that anyone other than an MP, in Whitehall of all places, who assaulted police while resisting arrest, would end up in the clink.
Whatever the final outcome of this latest bout of drunken violence, Joyce’s fall from grace is well and truly complete.
In other words, a blip.
Or, people realise somebody has to run the country. Why not a coalition?
Welcome to PB, btw. It is on the whole a friendly Site, although you would not have gathered so from yesterday's thread.
LOL,tim give up.
IF I wasn't so concerned about what it would mean to the country I think I would enjoy watching Labour struggling in the new reality we are faced with.
Was it the same two coppers that were abused by Andrew Mitchell?
This will prompt a fusillade of observations about SNP strength in those areas in 2011, but those were in different elections under a different system for a different purpose. 2010 looked much more like 2005 than 2007."
@antifrank, spot on. The SNP chose not to support the boundary changes in this Parliament, and that was a strategic mistake if they were serious about taking on their opponents and making further inroads at the next GE.
"I know nutting Mr Fawlty" seems to be the Lib Dem spin
This is SLAB in action.
BBC Sport Scotland - World Cup: Half-naked Scots clear Serb pitch
"Serbia's pitch at the Karadore Stadium needs to be cleared of snow to give the World Cup qualifier with Scotland any chance of being played. A few brave souls of the Tartan Army lend a hand."
I would certainly describe myself as an anti-Tory who sits mainly on the centre left politically; Just as many on here, if they were honest, would describe themselves as centre-right anti-Labour first and foremost. My guess is that the majority of PB posters are antis, rather than pros: they support Labour or Tory as the least worst option. Obviously, there are exceptions (the SNP supporters, Richard Nabavi, Nick Palmer, for example) and also some free spirits, but not that many.
Has anyone ever suggested to the EU that they should spend their money time and resources on improving the infrastructure, educational requirements, health services and general well being of the populations of poorer members before letting them run riot throughout the rest of the continent? Great solution to the problems faced by the Roma at home, let them, (force them),to all leave. The Romanian government has no problem with that.
There will be little or next to no movement of people from the extremely poor Roma communities of Bulgaria and Rumania to Britain next year will there? Tim doesn't think so. And we are all racists for even thinking it might happen. All cultures blend together quite wonderfully. Lovely. I will especially take heart from the new found patriotic oneness as British people of all ethnic backgrounds; white, black, asian, martian, unite to welcome the new visitors and the torrent of petty, (and not so petty), crimes in their neighborhoods.
Come on liberal lefties, embrace this cultural melting pot and tell us how lucky we will be on Jan 1st 2014.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bik9299kA0c&feature=youtu.be
lol
What a shock,they came out with points of views that people like tim would find racist,one view went something like this - 'we are western like you,it's the roma's that give us a bad name' but all who they interviewed blamed the roma community.
*may the lord forgive a joke on an unfunny, serious sort of problem.
Part of me thinks Clegg is inured to any scandal or criticism thesedays. He's still in place as there's little benefit to getting rid of him just now, that wouldn't be undone shortly, so until the time is right he's on autopilot.
"I'm not as sanguine as our host about the Lib Dem chances in Scotland. But the SNP still don't look well-placed to benefit. The Lib Dems have 11 Westminster seats in Scotland. At the 2010 election, the SNP were 2nd in one of them, 3rd in five of them and 4th in five of them. While Malcolm Bruce certainly looks vulnerable to the SNP, Labour look better placed than the SNP to benefit from a Lib Dem collapse."
I would refer you to the Ashcroft megapoll, which clearly shows that the SNP would benefit far more than Labour from a Scottish Lib Dem collapse. The SNP would gain six seats from the Lib Dems - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Danny Alexander), Northeast Fife (Menzies Campbell), Gordon (Malcolm Bruce), Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (ex-Lord Thurso), Argyll and Bute (Alan Reid) and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Robert Smith).
JackW would tell you, of course, that none of this could ever happen in reality because the likes of Thurso and Reid are political colossuses, revered by the local public. "Well, it's a view."
The next govt will have to decide whether to keep on with Osbornes policies.
Stalled deficit reduction and a deliberate inflationary bubble
1. "Stalled deficit"
ONS Public Sector Finances - February 2013
Let's look at Public Sector Net Borrowing
For the period April 2012 to February 2013, the public sector net borrowing, excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex), was £66.9 billion, which was £37.3 billion lower than in the same period of the previous year, when PSNB ex was £104.2 billion.
In 2011/12 the public sector net borrowing, excluding the temporary effects of the financial interventions (PSNB ex), was £120.9 billion, which was £20.0 billion lower than in 2010/11, when PSNB ex was £140.9 billion. The £20.0 billion drop in PSNB ex between 2010/11 and 2011/12 is composed of a £9.8 billion reduction in net investment and £10.2 billion reduction in the current budget deficit.
So let's put this in a column to make it easy to understand:
Full Year 2009/10 £158.9 bn
Full Year 2010/11 £140.9 bn 12% reduction
Full Year 2011/12 £120.9 bn 34% reduction
Year to date 2012 £ 66.9 bn 45% reduction
2. "A deliberate inflationary bubble"
Nationwide published their House Price Index today:
The price of a typical home was unchanged between February and March, but was 0.8 per cent higher than March 2012, data published in the Nationwide House Price Index has shown.
The typical home in the UK is now worth £164,630, up from £162,638 in February but flat on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The Monthly Index was 329.8, compared to 329.7 in February 2013.
So a housing market where prices are just holding in nominal terms and falling in real terms.
With the BoE Financial Policy Committee requiring UK banks to find an extra £25 bn of capital by the end of 2013, there is a significant risk that the supply of finance to house purchasers will fall in the short term. Couple this with weak growth in the economy and household earnings, there is a real risk of a house price collapse over this period.
Osborne's stimulus to the housing market by providing temporary mortgage guarantees and equity participation is far more likely to stablise than inflate the housing market given short term lending constraints.
This explains why Robert Gardner, Chief Economist at Nationwide, commenting on the outlook for the housing market stated:
"House prices were unchanged between February and March after taking account of usual seasonal effects. However, in annual terms, house price growth moved into positive territory for the first time since February 2012.
"In recent months buyer demand has been supported by healthy rates of employment growth, as well as the funding for lending scheme, which has helped to reduce mortgage costs and increase credit availability."
He added: "At the same time housing supply has remained relatively constrained. The outlook for the housing market is unusually uncertain at present, in part because the prospects for the wider economy are unclear, but also as the impact of a number of policy initiatives is hard to gauge."
Osborne appears to have moved at just the right time with just the right amount of stimulus.
Boy George, Boy Genius.
Voters say Boris must lead Tories standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
Anyway for most healthcare issues I think the procedure is this.
Q 1) Ask yourself is the pain in your neck still present from the tripping on paving stone/falling off the ladder/cycling into the open car door you had a couple of hours ago.
A 1) Its still pretty bad, maybe not life threatening. Best see a doctor.
Step 2) Phone Doctor. Surgery booked up for the next two days...
Step 3) Head to A&E, best to be on the safe side. Get told you'll be seen to. Wait in A&E for 5 hours with no idea of what sort of priority you are in or even when you might be seen. Double the amount of time this seems like if it is Saturday night...
Step 4) Discharge yourself as the boredom of staring at the walls in A&E is outweighing the pain in your neck. You even forgot to bring a decent book, and your ipad is flat.
Step 5) Phone 111 or NHS Direct, spend an hour on hold and get told to see a Doctor.
Step 6) Book the Docs, nearest appointment is in 3 days. Pain is gone in 3 days anyway. Head to Docs, "Well I had a pain and its gone"
<i>"I'm not as sanguine as our host about the Lib Dem chances in Scotland. But the SNP still don't look well-placed to benefit. The Lib Dems have 11 Westminster seats in Scotland. At the 2010 election, the SNP were 2nd in one of them, 3rd in five of them and 4th in five of them. While Malcolm Bruce certainly looks vulnerable to the SNP, Labour look better placed than the SNP to benefit from a Lib Dem collapse."</i>
I would refer you to the Ashcroft megapoll, which clearly shows that the SNP would benefit far more than Labour from a Scottish Lib Dem collapse. The SNP would gain six seats from the Lib Dems - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Danny Alexander), Northeast Fife (Menzies Campbell), Gordon (Malcolm Bruce), Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (ex-Lord Thurso), Argyll and Bute (Alan Reid) and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Robert Smith).
JackW would tell you, of course, that none of this could ever happen in reality because the likes of Thurso and Reid are political colossuses, revered by the local public. "Well, it's a view."</blockquote>
I'm open to a bet on this, if you like. An evens bet that the SNP will take these six seats at the 2015? Stakes of your choice?
Just fluff dressed as dynamite.
Your own claim was not that the SNP would fail to win just one of those six seats, but that they would benefit less than Labour from a Scottish Lib Dem collapse. I'm willing to have a bet with you on that. You win if Labour gain more SLD seats than the SNP, I win if the SNP gain more SLD seats than Labour, the bet is void if the number of SLD seats gained by each party is equal, or if the SLD don't lose any seats at all. Agreed?
I suppose the sophisticated thing if you fancy a Lab/Lib coalition would be to vote Lab in marginals up to about 20th on the Con/Lab marginal list and vote Con thereafter, but how many voters are able and willing to be that subtle? Voting LibDem in a Lab/Con marginal is essentially a statement of no strong preference for who actually wins, and the 2010 LibDem->Lab defector cohort is IMO the most vehemently anti-Tory group in the country. It would probably be easier for Cameron to gain votes from people who voted Labour in 2010, some of whom did it out of habit rather than active dislike.
The Boris poll sounds amusing, but "what would you do if..." polls are inherently dodgy, simultaneously leading and speculative.
http://instagram.com/p/XZ6JWnL-qA/
http://www.people-press.org/2013/03/28/most-say-illegal-immigrants-should-be-allowed-to-stay-but-citizenship-is-more-divisive/
What stake would you like?
Nailed on I tells ya.
Helmut Marko claims the Vettel-Webber feud is settled:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21967790
Two points:
1) It obviously isn't.
2) Interesting that it's Marko and not Christian 'this is silly' Horner making this statement.
Yes. Technically I doubt MilliBalls will default. But the exchange rate looks likely to trend erratically downwards until Francois Milliband regains the confidence of the foreign exchange markets - ie never.
Argyll & Bute will be interesting to watch too on GE night. The maths does look to favour Labour though..
“Cameron extends YouGove ‘best PM’ lead”
Hmm, I wondered why ‘tim’ has been so active today in killing yet another thread.
The Conservatives are still clearly toxic .