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More people tell YouGov that their preferred #GE2015 outcome is a CON majority than a LAB one -a crossover twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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I'm sure he won't want to disappoint the kippers after all.
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2005/05/infinite_contra.html
The first argument requires you to believe demand for low-skilled work is highly inelastic, and the second argument requires you to believe demand for low-skilled work is highly elastic. You can't believe both.
Output rose 0.3% in January compared with the month before, the Office for National Statistics said.
Compared with a year earlier, the services sector - which makes up more than three-quarters of the UK's annual economic output - rose 0.8%.
The largest contributions came from business and financial services.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21964070
EiT is right, under FPTP this kind of poll is of very limited usefullness.
The PM one is slightly more useful but nowhere near as useful as overall approval ratings or VI. Since actually being the PM incurs a tiny bit of an advantage when being considered as Prime Ministerial in the first place.
Then it will be anybody's guess how you model the outcome of the next election....
"These restrictive measures will remain in force for 7 days. The Commission will continue monitoring the need to extend the validity of or revise the measures."
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-298_en.htm
Or at least the tories or lib dems, they'll beat at least one of them, right?
We may see a minority Labour with confidence & supply.....
...whoever it is, it is not going to be pretty.....
They came second in 2009 Euro elections, how many MPs did that get them in 2010?
Unless or until that gap gets closed a hung parliament is a pipe dream.
On the Con Maj vs Lab Maj question, the remarkable thing is that the figures have remained so stable for months, but with lots of Don't Knows. Ed has clearly not convinced; if he becomes PM, it will be by default.
'Labour might be starting to feel the effects of their 'blank sheet of paper' strategy. '
Voters are pissed off with the rising cost of food not to mention rising energy & petrol costs,with playing around with pensions,salaries not keeping pace with inflation & of course immigration.
Labour has nothing to say about any of these issues.
The result is an indication of a minimum level of competence. People may not like the decisions but they seem reasonably coherent. When that happens they need a better alternative and Labour is simply not giving one. When politicians like Mandelson are saying it really is time to drop the too far, too fast nonsense and that is all they have swing voters are not being given a choice. The publicity surrounding David Miliband's departure is not going to help either.
None of this means the government is popular or that Labour will not win the next election. It just indicates that it is not going to fall into their lap. Labour need to set out a vision of what they would do differently and start selling it. That will not happen overnight. These things take time.
For the first half of this Parliament the blank sheet of paper worked well for Ed. As the next election hoves into view he needs to start writing on it.
A bigger kipper vote would mean more of that pain. (it would also take a limited chunk from the lib dems and labour depending on just how 'protest' a protest vote it is). So the question is how big is bigger? Impossible to say this far out but the lib dems are also relying on the polling misjudging their vote so we shall see who is right in the end.
"Could it be that this is not a demotion for Hayes? - and that Cameron's getting what he badly needs - a minister for his own backbenchers"
It's not like in the mid-Noughties, when Labour were pishing billions into the NHS. So bad were the productivity figures that Gormless has to recast them and Cronie sent his new Stats-office to Cardiff. [T'Economists "send in the clowns" comment.]
But you know that Wee-Timmy, don'tch-yah!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/28/cyprus-economic-woe-resolve-conflict
Hmm. Not sure about that, though I must admit my knowledge of the Cyprus political/military scene isn't great.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/GB_Polling_May_2010_to_Jan_2013.jpg
I do though expect the fop to continue with his touching and inexplicable faith in the incompetent Osbrowne. A faith which hardly portends any kind of huge shift for the tories any time soon.
No 10 on appointment of John Hayes as link man with Tory backbenches:""a popular figure with the Parliamentary party.. gets on with the PM"
:muppet-watch:
Well, its a view I suppose.
FG ahead but quite close with FF. Labour disastrously, they may be behind both Sinn Fein and Direct Democracy for Ireland
2011
FG 40.9%
Lab 21%
FF 19.6%
SF 8.9%
http://fullfact.org/factchecks/cost_renewable_energy_pushing_households_fuel_poverty-28828
"These changes are important. To Mr Cameron's credit, they suggest he too is focused on what the likes of me have been complaining about, namely the lack of smart politics at the centre."
At least you didn't try to 'prove' it with a Star Trek film.
LOL
Get in your Tardis dear and show me the numbers from May 2015.....until then, your faith remains touching.....and a glorious hostage to fortune.....
So what caused the fall of the rest of productivity? Could it be down to Cronie, Gormless and DMxMP not bothering to work in the UK? Or maybe Hugh Grant's sacrificing his "acting" [sic] career in order to mentor wee-Militwunt...?
"After months, if not years, of warnings about poor party management, the PM has finally acted. He knows that May will bring awful results for the Tories in the local elections. If they're awful enough, there will be fresh talk of leadership challenges and backbench plots. Mr Hayes has excellent connections in some of the circles where such talk can be heard; his appointment looks like an attempt to head off a summer of discontent in the Conservative Party.
Loyalists will see this as a sensible move from a prudent leader who responds calmly to events. Others will smell fear."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100209497/john-hayes-goes-to-no-10-is-david-cameron-admitting-to-fear-of-his-own-party/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Either way....lefties are fuming, righties happy.....
If the referendum is lost, there will be negotiations to secure more powers for Scotland. I would argue that SNP are best placed to do that, so a strong showing for them will strengthen their hand.
If the referendum is won, there will be negotiations to secure the best deal for Scotland. I would argue that SNP are best placed to do that, so a strong showing for them will strengthen their hand.
Why would you vote anything other than SNP in 2015 GE if you are a Scot and live in Scotland?
The further south you go in the UK, the less the LDs are disliked - especially where they are defending seats against the Tories.
The interesting question is what UKIP and 2010 LibDem votes do in Con/Lab marginals. Labour's steady lead is based overwhelmingly on 2010 LibDem defectors, and if they started going home we'd be in trouble. I don't see much sign of that - if anything the 2010 LibDem defectors are more anti-Coalition than average Labour voters. They are not especially pro-Labour (that's why they didn't vote for us in 2010) but they're ferociously determined to get the government out. Today's poll has this picture of 2010 LibDem preferences (all LibDems, not just defectors):
A Tory Government: 9
A Tory-LibDem Government: 16
A Lab-LibDem Government: 31
A Labour Government: 23
Don't know: 21
You claimed it was faith I showed you the clear evidence
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/GB_Polling_May_2010_to_Jan_2013.jpg
In case you still didn't understand (or are too busy babbling about Star Trek and the Tardis) the red line is the labour VI lead which shows absolutely no sign of the huge reversal you are faithfully dreaming of. (after Osbrowne gifted little Ed that lead last year). That means the labour lead is robust. Grasped it yet?
Why, under either scenario would you vote for the party with most to lose from a change to the status quo....?
The lower the lib dem MP count, the less chance of a hung parliament under FPTP.
The unintended consequences of this are now hurting many employees with a lower skills base, (hence the scream for a living wage which will end up doing the same).
You aren't going to turn a 10% labour lead into a tory lead just by praying in front of your shrine of Cammie and Osbrowne, so unless you have something better to offer as proof it is self-evidently you operating on faith alone and ignoring the polling evidence in a way stuarttruth would be proud of.
labour lead is robust.
Apologies for being a newbie and lurker, etc so not quite understanding the rules but am I able to ask whether you would like a £10 bet that the GE result will be closer than today's (YouGov) poll lead of 10pts?
Would be happy, eager, even, to ensure winnings go to this site.
I remember people saying that 1979 was a key election to win. With the humungous amount of North Sea revenue expected, the winner would be in power for a decade at least. That came to pass, but it was more to do with black swans; the Falklands, the Militant infiltration, and the SDP split.
2010 was seen as a good one to lose, and 2015 might be the same, but politicians prefer the short-term. Get into power and hope something turns up.
EdM's blank sheet is a good example. If you put down policies, you're giving a hostage to fortune. Better lie low and say nuffin.
It could work.
"For the Kremlinologists: John Hayes is intended to be the new Andrew MacKay, David Cameron's eyes, ears and counsellor on party matters."
If you think it can be reversed to the extent Carlotta seems to you can get excellent odds elsewhere to put all the money you wish down.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/james-delingpole/8874511/why-im-a-convert-to-ukip/
Now they've got the anti-wind farm vote too.....
Almost by definition as the only opposition party Labour will benefit in this parliament. When push comes to shove at election time (General, not noise of locals or euros) we may discover that the lead was consistent but not robust (as robust implies unlikely to move). The question is do Labour lead because of the policy, belief and promise that the party issues to the electorate, or because there isn't another alternative opposition? One is Robust and one is Consistent.
Even with polling narrowing as it usually does in the final months, narrowing is hardly the same as overturning a 10% lead. It looked like a hung parliament for months in 2010 because that's what the polling pointed to for months. Anyone who said a tory majority was nailed on in 2010 in the final months looked a fool because they ignored the polling to an extent Romney would be proud of.
A party led by the spawn of Polish quislings, debouched via Belgian-Communists (COMINTERN, Molotov-Ribbentrop to that 'nice' Mr Hitler; well, until he comes for your-and-yours) and populated by Scottish Unionists is exactly what an independent Scotland will vote for.
Ignore the Bangladesh-Burmese 2012 settlement at the International Court of the Seas* (ruling equidistant sea-borders) and ravage English waters down to the Tweed. Scots are canny; give them that...!
* Why is Germany is hosting this organisation? Us English and our Dutch cousins have more history, as too do the Danes....
gotit no probs thx
as for robustnesss, even on the chart you attach there is plenty of widening, narrowing and crossover....if you were a chartist you might even see a pattern whereby a narrowing was overdue (I'm not a chartist).
Also to note that the SNP are going to do nohing like as well against the LDs in Scottish seats @ GE2015.
@DavidL
Does he? I am not so sure. Maybe he needs to sketch in a few ideas, just some platitudes and some aspirations, you understand. Then he can sit back and wait to be wafted into Downing Street.
The Labvour "tribal" vote will hold up and this will be supplemented by disaffected Lib Dem vote. Meanwhile Cameron has done spectacularly well in pissing off large numbers of people who he needs to vote for him. His "tribal" or core vote cannot be relied upon and he hasn't and, I judge, will not, attract new voters to replace them. Add to that the Conservative activist base is collapsing, whereas Labour can rely on the willing hands of the Unions.
So, all in all, I think Labour can win the next GE even if they go into it without a coherent policy to their name.
Expect to be rebutted by polling evidence showing Labour with a commanding lead on the single most important issue - the economy.
Or not.
slightly different - the last two changes of government included a pledge (rightly or wrongly) to maintain policy. If EdM does this it leaves him nowhere to go if he still wants to argue "Coalition bad"....
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/GB_Polling_May_2010_to_Jan_2013.jpg
What polls are you basing that on? Or are you basing it on the 2011 elections or even the 2012 locals?
I hate to tell you but they show quite the reverse.
It seem I wasn't sufficiently clear, that is from when the lead has been robust.
1) people read into them what they want to read into them
2) polling figures in 2013 are not polling figures in 2015
3) no one ever changes their minds about what they mean
But it's probably worth summarising a bit where we stand now, as I see it.
1) Labour have a consistent lead of roughly 10 points over the Conservatives. The gap is there or thereabouts with most polling companies right now.
2) That lead is built out of dislike of the Conservatives and this Government rather than any enthusiasm for Labour.
3) The public is pissed off in general (hence the buoyant UKIP polling figures).
4) The initial violent hatred for the Lib Dems is waning a bit, but Nick Clegg is still widely disliked.
So we seem to be in a holding pattern. The rating downgrade did not have the impact on public perceptions that I expected (I thought it would be a hammer blow for the Conservatives, but it seems to have been fully factored in by the public). But on the other hand, the budget has done nothing to improve Conservative fortunes. It still seems all to play for and much depends on how the economy performs. The British public, rightly, are results merchants.
There are a couple of big unknowns. Labour seems to draw much of its most enthusiastic current support from people who did not vote for them at the last election. If its polling figures fade before the next election, they will presumably fade among other groups. This suggests that Labour might do relatively better in some seats that it does not currently hold with big 2010 Lib Dem votes and relatively less well in seats that it does hold where the Lib Dems featured less in 2010. But how might this pan out?
The other big unknown is what current UKIP supporters will do in practice at the next general election. On the one hand, they are drawn disproportionately from the ranks of disgruntled ex-Conservatives, but on the other hand they are not offering protest support of Labour. These people seem very angry. When it comes to the next election, who do they hate most?
This will prompt a fusillade of observations about SNP strength in those areas in 2011, but those were in different elections under a different system for a different purpose. 2010 looked much more like 2005 than 2007.
Doug Parr, Director of Policy, Greenpeace:
"Britain is at a crossroads, with decisions being made now that will define how we get and use energy for the next 30-40 years. As such, Michael Fallon has a real opportunity to clean up our power sector, capitalise on clean, home-grown energy and properly open Britain for green business.
In opposition he authored a law to drive investment in renewable energy, and as deputy chairman of the Conservatives he described the renewables sector as “the work force of tomorrow".
We look forward to him putting this vision into practice and safeguarding green jobs and growth."
Of course, this is terrible for Cameron.....
I tend to think not myself.
It would be terrible for Cameron's tiny windmill on his roof. If it hadn't vanished.
"Two of the Conservative Party's success stories get bigger roles: Fallon and Hayes"
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/03/two-of-the-conservative-partys-success-stories-get-bigger-roles-fallon-and-hayes.html
no wonder tim is upset.....
'My subjective impression of speaking to UKIP-Conservative waiverers is that a lot of them, while still supporting UKIP, are giving the Tories another look due to recognition of their concerns.'
If they are serious about wanting an in/out EU referendum,junking the ECHR and avoid the inevitable return of mass immigration under Labour,then they will do that.
Voters now want to see what Ed has in his hand. Trouble is, formulating policy is going to be very difficult with the left and right of the party already at the each others throats.
While that is uncertain (though not totally I think the vote of both will be more 'robust' *sigh* than many think) what isn't uncertain is that the lib dems will have to defend their coalition with the tories against a somewhat less than receptive scottish public. Put onto that the tories chances in scotland after years of westminster rule and it does seem to boil down to how that split shakes out.
I've never thought the SNP would grab every lib dem seat but if Clegg is still there then the lib dems are in for a world of pain from labour and the SNP. Even if he isn't they will still be under the cosh.
RT @MichaelLCrick: Nick Clegg's account of what he's done re Mike Hancock seems full of serious discrepancies. I will outline in a blog shortly.
Nick Clegg's account of what he's done re Mike Hancock seems full of serious discrepancies. I will outline in a blog shortly.
Anyone see a pattern of Clegg dealing with problems with lib dem sleazes?
That worked out so well the last time.
Just signed a deal to sell one of my favorite companies. World leader in multivalent vaccine development and manufacturing. Great price and management happy, but still sad to see her go.
:-(
How are those Labour NHS cuts going down in Wales?
Is it Labour's template for the NHS in England?
What's becoming increasingly clear to me is that Redward will become PM by default. He's playing an opposition game and opposing everything - fair dinkum for now. That might get him elected. It's no platform for government and the 'what will you do' questions on spending and the deficit will have to be answered, at least directioanlly in the manifesto and absolutely in the first budget. The Labour 2015 -2017 government is shaping up to be the most calamitous in our history. They will lead us to a default. I hope EdM is readying himself for this.
If it was good at triaging and making a proper determination about the appropriate course of action then it would be helpful. But it isn't. And "satisfaction" ratings are worth diddly squat when you are assessing effectiveness.
But then I make my living working and investing in the healthcare space. And you work in a wine shop.