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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    simmonite said:

    "Ummuna...had been distressed by newspapers pursuing relatives of his girlfriend, including her 102-year-old grandmother" might have something to do with it

    Apparently it isn't true though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633

    Cyclefree said:

    The interesting thing about the Chukka story is that it is so obvious that it is his enemies in the Labour party who have done this to him - and used the press to do it, the wicked press that they wanted to control a la Leveson to prevent this sort of stuff happening. Oh, the irony!

    That doesn't bode well for future harmony within Labour even once they've chosen a leader.

    I don't give two hoots about his private life. It's a shame if it's something that he felt he couldn't tell his family. The only thing I would say is that parents and family often know or guess more than you might think and - unless they are complete bastards - are far more forgiving and accepting than you might anticipate. I hope so, for his sake.

    If it is true that members of his own party have raised issues about his sexuality to destroy his campaign, then that would reflect extremely badly on Labour. It seems to have gone feral.
    Sexuality? But doesn't he have a girlfriend?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    AndyJS said:

    Election data:

    East Midlands region:

    2015:
    Con: 969,379 (43.46%)
    Lab: 705,787 (31.64%)
    UKIP: 351,777 (15.77%)
    LD: 124,039 (5.56%)
    Greens: 66,239 (2.97%)
    Others: 13,201 (0.59%)
    TOTAL: 2,230,422

    2010:
    Con: 915,933 (41.18%)
    Lab: 661,813 (29.76%)
    LD: 462,988 (20.82%)
    UKIP: 72,659 (3.27%)
    Greens: 11,667 (0.52%)
    Others: 99,083 (4.45%)
    TOTAL: 2,224,143

    Changes:
    Con: +2.28%
    Lab: +1.89%
    UKIP: +12.50%
    LD: -15.26%
    Greens: +2.45%
    Others: -3.86%

    Swing, Lab to Con: 0.20%


    It's interesting to note that the exit poll was apparently showing a swing to the Conservatives in the East Midlands sufficient to allow them to pick up seats from Labour, but in fact the actual regional swing of 0.20% to the Tories wouldn't have been enough to pick up any seats. In the event they did take Derby North but not Gedling, Nottingham South, Derbyshire NE as the exit poll was implying.


    How many regions have you done, Andy?

    East Midlands ideological split:

    Right-wing parties 59.2
    Left-wing parties 34.6
    Centre/others 6.2
    Not sure that I agree with your split, but the East Midlands are blue...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624

    The BBC has apparently been snubbed as the official broadcaster for the Queen's 90th birthday celebrations next year.

    A spectacular pageant involving more than 600 horses and 1,200 people at Windsor Castle will be broadcast live by ITV instead.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3083691/It-s-ITV-One-Queen-snubs-BBC-coverage-90th-birthday-celebrations-criticism-Jubilee-farce.html

    One has told the BBC to go f##k themselves...

    The BBC were very poor on the Jubillee events. They used people like Richard E Granf who knew nothing and cared less about Royalty or boats. If they have lost favour then I am not surprised.
    Wasn't just him, they had Fearne Cotton, Tess Daly and Matt Baker messing up left, right and centre. Even chief lovely Stephne Fry said it was bloody awful.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2154767/Diamond-jubilee-BBC-attacked-inane-celebrity-driven-coverage-Queens-Thames-Pageant.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633

    AndyJS said:

    Election data:

    East Midlands region:

    2015:
    Con: 969,379 (43.46%)
    Lab: 705,787 (31.64%)
    UKIP: 351,777 (15.77%)
    LD: 124,039 (5.56%)
    Greens: 66,239 (2.97%)
    Others: 13,201 (0.59%)
    TOTAL: 2,230,422

    2010:
    Con: 915,933 (41.18%)
    Lab: 661,813 (29.76%)
    LD: 462,988 (20.82%)
    UKIP: 72,659 (3.27%)
    Greens: 11,667 (0.52%)
    Others: 99,083 (4.45%)
    TOTAL: 2,224,143

    Changes:
    Con: +2.28%
    Lab: +1.89%
    UKIP: +12.50%
    LD: -15.26%
    Greens: +2.45%
    Others: -3.86%

    Swing, Lab to Con: 0.20%


    It's interesting to note that the exit poll was apparently showing a swing to the Conservatives in the East Midlands sufficient to allow them to pick up seats from Labour, but in fact the actual regional swing of 0.20% to the Tories wouldn't have been enough to pick up any seats. In the event they did take Derby North but not Gedling, Nottingham South, Derbyshire NE as the exit poll was implying.


    How many regions have you done, Andy?

    East Midlands ideological split:

    Right-wing parties 59.2
    Left-wing parties 34.6
    Centre/others 6.2
    Not sure that I agree with your split, but the East Midlands are blue...
    Well, I agree with my split, so no worries :lol:
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Cyclefree said:

    The interesting thing about the Chukka story is that it is so obvious that it is his enemies in the Labour party who have done this to him - and used the press to do it, the wicked press that they wanted to control a la Leveson to prevent this sort of stuff happening. Oh, the irony!

    That doesn't bode well for future harmony within Labour even once they've chosen a leader.

    I don't give two hoots about his private life. It's a shame if it's something that he felt he couldn't tell his family. The only thing I would say is that parents and family often know or guess more than you might think and - unless they are complete bastards - are far more forgiving and accepting than you might anticipate. I hope so, for his sake.

    If it is true that members of his own party have raised issues about his sexuality to destroy his campaign, then that would reflect extremely badly on Labour. It seems to have gone feral.
    Sexuality? But doesn't he have a girlfriend?
    Perhaps he would have been better off with a railway atlas...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MP_SE said:

    A masterpiece of understatement from Carswell.
    ie - ''At times, Ukip has failed to strike the right tone''
    He is in the wrong party.
    Ironically he was in the right party with the Conservatives. The Conservatives and Labour are both broad churches that can host a wide array of views; the Conservatives are a party that can find a home for both Dan Hannan and Ken Clarke, while letting both speak their minds.

    As UKIP have expanded it now seems to still be a narrow church for a set view with little room for deviation. If UKIP are to grow to be a serious party, they need to be able to tolerate some diversity of both personality and beliefs. A party has a core of guiding principles but not everyone is going to be a carbon copy of each other, a drone cut from an identikit.
    Poor choice of politicians. Supposedly Hannan turned down an offer to join UKIP as they could not guarantee him first place on the London list for the EU elections. Gerard Batten wouldn't budge so Hannan didn't join.
    Deliberate choice of politicians. Hannan has spoken his views for years and been forthright and unrestrained. Has UKIP given its politicians the same freedom?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    The BBC has apparently been snubbed as the official broadcaster for the Queen's 90th birthday celebrations next year.

    A spectacular pageant involving more than 600 horses and 1,200 people at Windsor Castle will be broadcast live by ITV instead.

    That's two people on each horse - is the budget that low? :)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Cyclefree said:

    The interesting thing about the Chukka story is that it is so obvious that it is his enemies in the Labour party who have done this to him - and used the press to do it, the wicked press that they wanted to control a la Leveson to prevent this sort of stuff happening. Oh, the irony!

    That doesn't bode well for future harmony within Labour even once they've chosen a leader.

    I don't give two hoots about his private life. It's a shame if it's something that he felt he couldn't tell his family. The only thing I would say is that parents and family often know or guess more than you might think and - unless they are complete bastards - are far more forgiving and accepting than you might anticipate. I hope so, for his sake.

    If it is true that members of his own party have raised issues about his sexuality to destroy his campaign, then that would reflect extremely badly on Labour. It seems to have gone feral.
    Sexuality? But doesn't he have a girlfriend?
    Chuka is widely rumoured to be bisexual. It's a shame that that has any bearing at all on his ability to lead the party, if true.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,233
    edited May 2015
    MTimT said:


    Thanks. I believe it is originally from a TED talk. I think it very funny, and all too true. I always wondered how the David Koresh's, Charlie Mansons and Jim Jones of the world managed it. This makes a lot of sense. It does not matter if the leader is a crackpot, so long as there is that first and second follower...

    It's shocking how much influence Jim Jones had in San Francisco politics prior to the Jonestown episode.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Enormously hard to see the Newsnight bit on Lee Scott. The Conservatives need more people like him.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chameleon said:

    Enormously hard to see the Newsnight bit on Lee Scott. The Conservatives need more people like him.

    He gave his successful Labour opponent a hug on the rostrum.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    The BBC has apparently been snubbed as the official broadcaster for the Queen's 90th birthday celebrations next year.

    A spectacular pageant involving more than 600 horses and 1,200 people at Windsor Castle will be broadcast live by ITV instead.

    That's two people on each horse - is the budget that low? :)
    A four-in-hand carriage (4 horses): driver, co-pilot, 4 passengers, 2 footmen. Gives the right ratio.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Election data:

    East Midlands region:

    2015:
    Con: 969,379 (43.46%)
    Lab: 705,787 (31.64%)
    UKIP: 351,777 (15.77%)
    LD: 124,039 (5.56%)
    Greens: 66,239 (2.97%)
    Others: 13,201 (0.59%)
    TOTAL: 2,230,422

    2010:
    Con: 915,933 (41.18%)
    Lab: 661,813 (29.76%)
    LD: 462,988 (20.82%)
    UKIP: 72,659 (3.27%)
    Greens: 11,667 (0.52%)
    Others: 99,083 (4.45%)
    TOTAL: 2,224,143

    Changes:
    Con: +2.28%
    Lab: +1.89%
    UKIP: +12.50%
    LD: -15.26%
    Greens: +2.45%
    Others: -3.86%

    Swing, Lab to Con: 0.20%


    It's interesting to note that the exit poll was apparently showing a swing to the Conservatives in the East Midlands sufficient to allow them to pick up seats from Labour, but in fact the actual regional swing of 0.20% to the Tories wouldn't have been enough to pick up any seats. In the event they did take Derby North but not Gedling, Nottingham South, Derbyshire NE as the exit poll was implying.


    How many regions have you done, Andy?

    East Midlands ideological split:

    Right-wing parties 59.2
    Left-wing parties 34.6
    Centre/others 6.2
    Also Greater London and North East so far. Did you see my posts earlier for those regions?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Liz Kendall: "We could be out of power for ever" according to Sky News paper review.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    AndyJS said:

    Liz Kendall: "We could be out of power for ever" according to Sky News paper review.

    What a load of nonsense.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Election data:

    East Midlands region:

    2015:
    Con: 969,379 (43.46%)
    Lab: 705,787 (31.64%)
    UKIP: 351,777 (15.77%)
    LD: 124,039 (5.56%)
    Greens: 66,239 (2.97%)
    Others: 13,201 (0.59%)
    TOTAL: 2,230,422

    2010:
    Con: 915,933 (41.18%)
    Lab: 661,813 (29.76%)
    LD: 462,988 (20.82%)
    UKIP: 72,659 (3.27%)
    Greens: 11,667 (0.52%)
    Others: 99,083 (4.45%)
    TOTAL: 2,224,143

    Changes:
    Con: +2.28%
    Lab: +1.89%
    UKIP: +12.50%
    LD: -15.26%
    Greens: +2.45%
    Others: -3.86%

    Swing, Lab to Con: 0.20%


    It's interesting to note that the exit poll was apparently showing a swing to the Conservatives in the East Midlands sufficient to allow them to pick up seats from Labour, but in fact the actual regional swing of 0.20% to the Tories wouldn't have been enough to pick up any seats. In the event they did take Derby North but not Gedling, Nottingham South, Derbyshire NE as the exit poll was implying.


    How many regions have you done, Andy?

    East Midlands ideological split:

    Right-wing parties 59.2
    Left-wing parties 34.6
    Centre/others 6.2
    Also Greater London and North East so far. Did you see my posts earlier for those regions?
    I think I saw London (yesterday?), but didn't see NE.
  • Coming tomorrow morning Henry G Manson's analysis and top tip for the LAB leadership

    I suppose it's too much to hope that HenryG will be tipping Jon Cruddas tomorrow to win the Labour leadership contest after I backed him a couple of days ago with Betfair at decimal odds of 460, admittedly for a rather modest stake of 3p.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    The EdStone has been found:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3083863/It-s-Ed-stone-No-10-tracked-bleak-London-warehouse-boss-stonemasons-carved-reveals-s-true-blue-Tory.html

    Estimated cost = £30,000

    Could buy some quality artwork for £30k or an EdStone...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Nice to see Crosby kicking Monties head in in the Telegraph,well deserved.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11608648/Lynton-Crosby-Betrayal-of-British-voters.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    AndyJS said:

    Liz Kendall: "We could be out of power for ever" according to Sky News paper review.

    What a load of nonsense.
    Was that a quote from the Guardian? If so it was a partial quote and referring to the remainder of Labour doing a SLAB and taking its vote for granted.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633
    edited May 2015

    Cyclefree said:

    The interesting thing about the Chukka story is that it is so obvious that it is his enemies in the Labour party who have done this to him - and used the press to do it, the wicked press that they wanted to control a la Leveson to prevent this sort of stuff happening. Oh, the irony!

    That doesn't bode well for future harmony within Labour even once they've chosen a leader.

    I don't give two hoots about his private life. It's a shame if it's something that he felt he couldn't tell his family. The only thing I would say is that parents and family often know or guess more than you might think and - unless they are complete bastards - are far more forgiving and accepting than you might anticipate. I hope so, for his sake.

    If it is true that members of his own party have raised issues about his sexuality to destroy his campaign, then that would reflect extremely badly on Labour. It seems to have gone feral.
    Sexuality? But doesn't he have a girlfriend?
    Perhaps he would have been better off with a railway atlas...
    To compensate for the lack of Opinion polls, went back to my old habits - did Birmingham to Derby and back by rail this afternoon. Strictly speaking, the route I did for the first time was Tamworth to Derby, as I had already done Brum to Tamworth last year.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633
    AndyJS said:

    Liz Kendall: "We could be out of power for ever" according to Sky News paper review.

    I'd imagine the Tories said much the same thing back in 97.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Election data:

    North East region:

    2015:
    Lab: 557,100 (46.89%)
    Con: 300,943 (25.33%)
    UKIP: 198,823 (16.73%)
    LD: 77,095 (6.49%)
    Greens: 43,051 (3.62%)
    Others: 11,201 (0.94%)
    TOTAL: 1,188,213

    2010:
    Lab: 518,261 (43.55%)
    Con: 282,347 (23.73%)
    LD: 280,468 (23.57%)
    UKIP: 32,196 (2.72%)
    Greens: 3,787 (0.32%)
    Others: 72,864 (6.12%)
    TOTAL: 1,189,923

    Changes:
    Lab: +3.33%
    Con: +1.60%
    UKIP: +14.03%
    LD: -17.08%
    Greens: +3.30%
    Others: -5.18%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 0.87%


    In one of Labour's best regions in England the number of votes cast fell slightly which probably wasn't a good sign for them.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    The BBC has apparently been snubbed as the official broadcaster for the Queen's 90th birthday celebrations next year.

    A spectacular pageant involving more than 600 horses and 1,200 people at Windsor Castle will be broadcast live by ITV instead.

    That's two people on each horse - is the budget that low? :)
    A four-in-hand carriage (4 horses): driver, co-pilot, 4 passengers, 2 footmen. Gives the right ratio.
    I still like the thought of 2 on each horse - do they both face forward, backward, or one of each.

    All those carriages would look like a summer evening in Central Park. :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,233


    Was that a quote from the Guardian? If so it was a partial quote and referring to the remainder of Labour doing a SLAB and taking its vote for granted.

    Unfortunately the Guardian interview has been written up appallingly badly. The main article (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/15/liz-kendall-labour-must-back-europe-referendum-and-embrace-business) refers to a very interesting quote that Labour should stop advocating high taxation “just to make a point” but the supposed full interview (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/15/liz-kendall-labour-leadership-interview) doesn't even include the quote.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It'll be interesting to see if the Tory vote fell in any English region. The only one might have been the North West.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mr Crosby said that Britain’s political class is dominated by “a bunch of people, most of whom live inside the M25 who could never live on the £26,000 that is the average annual earnings of people in this country”.
    “It wasn’t just Ed Miliband’s Labour Party that revealed itself as out of touch and remote from the people who are the backbone of Britain. It was a failure for the Westminster-centric ‘Eddie the Expert’ and ‘Clarrie the Commentator’ who were tested and found wanting.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    OK, Mayweather - Pacquiao was the warmup - did you make money on it?

    Now here's the Main Event - Romney - Holyfield: get your money on now!

    http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/05/15/406986457/mitt-romney-to-fight-evander-holyfield-you-read-that-right

    http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/05/15/romney-holyfield-set-to-square-off-in-charity-fight/

    The promo video is a hoot
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Coming tomorrow morning Henry G Manson's analysis and top tip for the LAB leadership

    I suppose it's too much to hope that HenryG will be tipping Jon Cruddas tomorrow to win the Labour leadership contest after I backed him a couple of days ago with Betfair at decimal odds of 460, admittedly for a rather modest stake of 3p.
    He may tip Carswell as he defects to Labour, seeing himself as their new saviour.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    He singled out Tim Mongomerie, a columnist for The Times who used to work for Iain Duncan Smith, the current Work and Pensions Secretary.
    “I’ve been around politics a long time." Mr Crosby said." And I’ve seen people entitled to comment as they wish but some of the commentators, who claimed to be Conservative supporters - like Tim Montgomerie from The Times [also Iain Duncan Smith's former chief of staff] - I think in the end, became slightly gratuitous participants.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633
    AndyJS said:

    Election data:

    North East region:

    2015:
    Lab: 557,100 (46.89%)
    Con: 300,943 (25.33%)
    UKIP: 198,823 (16.73%)
    LD: 77,095 (6.49%)
    Greens: 43,051 (3.62%)
    Others: 11,201 (0.94%)
    TOTAL: 1,188,213

    2010:
    Lab: 518,261 (43.55%)
    Con: 282,347 (23.73%)
    LD: 280,468 (23.57%)
    UKIP: 32,196 (2.72%)
    Greens: 3,787 (0.32%)
    Others: 72,864 (6.12%)
    TOTAL: 1,189,923

    Changes:
    Lab: +3.33%
    Con: +1.60%
    UKIP: +14.03%
    LD: -17.08%
    Greens: +3.30%
    Others: -5.18%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 0.87%


    In one of Labour's best regions in England the number of votes cast fell slightly which probably wasn't a good sign for them.

    Thanks Andy,

    NE Split almost exactly like Wales:

    Left-wing 50.5%
    Right-wing 42.0
    Centre/others 7.5
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited May 2015
    The Masters, as CBS man Jim Nantz (Nick Faldo's golf commentary partner) says each year is 'A tradition unlike any other'.

    At the Preakness, another tradition unlike any other has been banned - the running of the urinals.

    They have a row of about 2 dozen portapotties linked together. The idea is that contestants - presumably in various stages of being high or drunk, climb the end portapotty and then try to run along the roofs of the row to the other end without falling, all the while being pelted with cans of beer and other stuff.

    It's not worth watching now. :(

    What would the Preakness be without this?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIcyFSYhvV4
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,233
    As a natural born Welshwoman, Julia Gillard must be eligible to lead the Labo(u)r party?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    As a natural born Welshwoman, Julia Gillard must be eligible to lead the Labo(u)r party?

    She'd be a good fit - she has an obvious talent for making Australia even more uncouth :)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,013
    AndyJS said:

    Liz Kendall: "We could be out of power for ever" according to Sky News paper review.

    Is that supposed to motivate the party?

    Seriously, she could be right but it's a remote chance. The Conservatives will lose power at some point and when they do, who will replace them as the government? UKIP? The Lib Dems? The Greens? Some new party? Because unless it is one of those, it'll be Labour.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015

    AndyJS said:

    Election data:

    North East region:

    2015:
    Lab: 557,100 (46.89%)
    Con: 300,943 (25.33%)
    UKIP: 198,823 (16.73%)
    LD: 77,095 (6.49%)
    Greens: 43,051 (3.62%)
    Others: 11,201 (0.94%)
    TOTAL: 1,188,213

    2010:
    Lab: 518,261 (43.55%)
    Con: 282,347 (23.73%)
    LD: 280,468 (23.57%)
    UKIP: 32,196 (2.72%)
    Greens: 3,787 (0.32%)
    Others: 72,864 (6.12%)
    TOTAL: 1,189,923

    Changes:
    Lab: +3.33%
    Con: +1.60%
    UKIP: +14.03%
    LD: -17.08%
    Greens: +3.30%
    Others: -5.18%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 0.87%


    In one of Labour's best regions in England the number of votes cast fell slightly which probably wasn't a good sign for them.

    Thanks Andy,

    NE Split almost exactly like Wales:

    Left-wing 50.5%
    Right-wing 42.0
    Centre/others 7.5
    Interesting, although I'm not sure I'd categorise all of UKIP's supporters as right-wing. A lot of them are rather left-wing on economic matters, especially in the north.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015

    AndyJS said:

    Liz Kendall: "We could be out of power for ever" according to Sky News paper review.

    Is that supposed to motivate the party?

    Seriously, she could be right but it's a remote chance. The Conservatives will lose power at some point and when they do, who will replace them as the government? UKIP? The Lib Dems? The Greens? Some new party? Because unless it is one of those, it'll be Labour.
    In my opinion the Tories "maxed out" their vote at this election. The threat of a Lab/SNP coalition pushed some voters in their direction who wouldn't usually vote Conservative and probably won't do so again. To illustrate the point, they were just 5.8 points below what they polled in 1983, a time when large numbers of working-class women used to vote Conservative (not so common today) and when the ethnic minority electorate was much smaller. I think the trend we've seen in recent elections of the combined Con/Lab share declining will probably resume at the next election. So Kendall is possibly being a bit pessimistic about Labour's chances, although it's obviously better to be over-cautious rather than complacent as Ed appears to have been.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633
    edited May 2015
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Election data:

    Thanks Andy,

    NE Split almost exactly like Wales:

    Left-wing 50.5%
    Right-wing 42.0
    Centre/others 7.5
    Interesting, although I'm not sure I'd categorise all of UKIP's supporters as right-wing. A lot of them are rather left-wing on economic matters, especially in the north.
    I'm doing this split by party voted for. UKIP seem to be a right-wing populist party.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    George Osborne plans new Budget on 8 July
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633
    FPT thanks to @AndyJS

    Greater London:

    2015:
    Lab: 1,545,080 (43.69%)
    Con: 1,233,386 (34.88%)
    UKIP: 286,946 (8.11%)
    LD: 272,544 (7.71%)
    Greens: 171,652 (4.85%)
    Others: 26,622 (0.75%)
    TOTAL: 3,536,230

    2010:
    Lab: 1,245,637 (36.62%)
    Con: 1,174,588 (34.53%)
    LD: 751,561 (22.10%)
    UKIP: 59,452 (1.75%)
    Greens: 54,316 (1.60%)
    Others: 115,783 (3.40%)
    TOTAL: 3,401,317

    Changes:
    Lab: +7.07%
    Con: +0.35%
    UKIP: +6.37%
    LD: -14.39%
    Greens: +3.26%
    Others: -2.65%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 3.36%


    ideological split;

    Left 48.5
    Right 43.0
    Centre 8.5

    Not a majority, only a plurality for the Left in London.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Election data:

    Thanks Andy,

    NE Split almost exactly like Wales:

    Left-wing 50.5%
    Right-wing 42.0
    Centre/others 7.5
    Interesting, although I'm not sure I'd categorise all of UKIP's supporters as right-wing. A lot of them are rather left-wing on economic matters, especially in the north.
    I'm doing this split by party voted for. UKIP seem to be a right-wing populist party.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party
    The Nazis were also Socialist ....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'll move on to other regions tomorrow. They've probably already been done by someone else somewhere or other, but I like to do them anyway because it means I get a better understanding of the results.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Liz Kendall: "We could be out of power for ever" according to Sky News paper review.

    Is that supposed to motivate the party?

    Seriously, she could be right but it's a remote chance. The Conservatives will lose power at some point and when they do, who will replace them as the government? UKIP? The Lib Dems? The Greens? Some new party? Because unless it is one of those, it'll be Labour.
    In my opinion the Tories "maxed out" their vote at this election. The threat of a Lab/SNP coalition pushed some voters in their direction who wouldn't usually vote Conservative and probably won't do so again. To illustrate the point, they were just 5.8 points below what they polled in 1983, a time when large numbers of working-class women used to vote Conservative (not so common today) and when the ethnic minority electorate was much smaller. I think the trend we've seen in recent elections of the combined Con/Lab share declining will probably resume at the next election. So Kendall is possibly being a bit pessimistic about Labour's chances, although it's obviously better to be over-cautious rather than complacent as Ed appears to have been.
    The Tories have only maxed out if we remain in multi-party politics. It is quite possible in the near-to-mid term that in fact the UK - or at least England and Wales - essentially revert to 2-party politics. If the LibDems are seen to no longer be a protest party, then their raison d'être has largely gone, and their voters will naturally go to either Labour or Conservatives, except those who find another protest party, most likely the Greens in England. If the Europe issue is addressed in a manner that the bulk of the population accepts the results, the economy continues to recover and immigration is addressed satisfactorily, then UKIP's raison d'être is gone too. In that scenario, we are back to Conservatives and Labour, unless Labour splits to a centre left and further left parties.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633
    MTimT said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Election data:

    Thanks Andy,

    NE Split almost exactly like Wales:

    Left-wing 50.5%
    Right-wing 42.0
    Centre/others 7.5
    Interesting, although I'm not sure I'd categorise all of UKIP's supporters as right-wing. A lot of them are rather left-wing on economic matters, especially in the north.
    I'm doing this split by party voted for. UKIP seem to be a right-wing populist party.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party
    The Nazis were also Socialist ....
    "Today our left-wing politicians in particular are constantly insisting that their craven-hearted and obsequious foreign policy necessarily results from the disarmament of Germany, whereas the truth is that this is the policy of traitors [...] But the politicians of the Right deserve exactly the same reproach. It was through their miserable cowardice that those ruffians [...] who came into power in 1918 were able to rob the nation of its arms.[12]"

    - Hitler in Mein Kampf
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,633
    AndyJS said:

    I'll move on to other regions tomorrow. They've probably already been done by someone else somewhere or other, but I like to do them anyway because it means I get a better understanding of the results.

    Much appreciated - I was thinking of doing my own spreadsheets but maybe later :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232
    edited May 2015
    Gosh, PB is quiet tonight! Missing the halcyon days of the evening of May 7th :D

    Edit - also, I only posted to keep Peter on edge :)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2015
    And here was me popping into PB.com and having only one question left to ask about this thread topic.. Can the Libdems really afford a by-election of any kind, never mind one that sees their last Leader disappearing off to pastures new and reducing their numbers even further to the size that will just require a people carrier? Nick Clegg is currently caught between a rock and a hard place.
    RobD said:

    Gosh, PB is quiet tonight! Missing the halcyon days of the evening of May 7th :D

    Edit - also, I only posted to keep Peter on edge :)

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232
    fitalass said:

    And here was me putting into PB.com and having only one question about this thread topic.. Can the Libdems really afford a by-election of any kind, never mind one that sees their last Leader disappearing off to pastures new and reducing their numbers even further to the size that will just require a people carrier? Nick Clegg is currently caught between a rock and a hard place.

    RobD said:

    Gosh, PB is quiet tonight! Missing the halcyon days of the evening of May 7th :D

    Edit - also, I only posted to keep Peter on edge :)

    I think the answer is no, so I think he'll dutifully serve his term in Parliament.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    AndyJS said:

    Liz Kendall: "We could be out of power for ever" according to Sky News paper review.

    Is that supposed to motivate the party?

    Seriously, she could be right but it's a remote chance. The Conservatives will lose power at some point and when they do, who will replace them as the government? UKIP? The Lib Dems? The Greens? Some new party? Because unless it is one of those, it'll be Labour.
    It's not supposed to motivate them to be happy, it's supposed to motivate them to get their shit together.

    It's not particularly far-fetched. The Japanese Social Democrats are now almost completely irrelevant, the LDP are hardly ever out of government and half of the main opposition are dissident factions of the LDP that defected to a new party.
This discussion has been closed.