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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s biggest mistake was to duck the Eastleigh by elect

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    CD13 said:


    Carswell has refused it on principle but have any other opposition MPs ever refused it on principle? If not, why not?

    Farage has a problem here because he's set a higher standard for loose-lipped candidates that have the other parties. I don't think it's been because the media have been intrusive (which they have), it's because he likes discipline. Farage hinted at his views in his resignation speech - he finds it irritating dealing with less-disciplined people who mouth off inappropriately.

    Carswell is either a loose cannon or a free-thinker depending on your view. I'm sympathetic, but on that basis, I'd have to sympathise with the foot-in-mouth brigade too. I probably do as I was brought up to think that 'Sticks and stones ...'

    You can see why Carswell left the Tories, so I'd expect Farage to make an issue of it. But there's a bit of my party, my rules. But being 100% of the MPs, he makes it awkward for the leader. Just imagine a Labour party with only Skiners, Fields, Corbyns and Hoey's.

    Hmm ... might even be an improvement

    Carswell has the added oomph that the voters chose to give him a voice when they put him in Westminster. Farage? He was told to STFU....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    198 is just an appalling total. I'd forgotten is was less than 200. Just embarrassing.

    Miss Plato, after the 2005 General Election the Conservatives had 198 seats. Today it has 331.

    Labour's gone from 355 to 232.

    Edited extra bit: and the Lib Dems from 62 to 8.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    As ever, an interesting article by Mary Riddell in Telegraph on Labour defeat. She raises a very good question: what was the point of Crudas doing all the policy work if most of it was totally ignored?

    Anyone have what Crudas actually came up with?

    The 'blank piece of paper' was touted at the time as something which would fill up with policies, but I can't see what happened to that policy review.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2015
    The biggest ever global school rankings have been published, with Asian countries in the top five places and African countries at the bottom.....

    The top five places (Maths & Science) are all taken by Asian countries - Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.......

    "If you go to an Asian classroom you'll find teachers who expect every student to succeed. There's a lot of rigour, a lot of focus and coherence," says Mr Schleicher.

    "These countries are also very good at attracting the most talented teachers in the most challenging classrooms, so that every student has access to excellent teachers.".....

    In the UK, the study shows about one in five youngsters leave school without reaching a basic level of education - and the OECD says that reducing this number and improving skills could add trillions of dollars to the UK economy. (top European countries are 6: Finland; 7: Estonia; 8: Switzerland; 9 Netherlands, UK is 20 out of 76)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32608772

    Shows there is a lot of work for Nicky Morgan to do - in face of opposition from educationalists, non-aspiring councils, NUT and even uninterested parents.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @arusbridger: Prince Charles's black spider memos to be published today... http://t.co/LAdPYJUpzO

    Today is the day the nation decides whether Charles becomes king....
    Is this like when TND tweets about an interesting poll?
    lol

    I'll wait to see whether or not they're actually "interesting"...

    Ultimately, IMO, it's impossible for any future monarch to be as *clean* as QE2. She was cushioned by a compliant media during her younger, more politically inquisitive years and reached constitutional maturity before the internet came about.

    I recon QE2 will be the last superhuman monarch.
    I think it is more to do with the fact she was Queen at 26. Charles has had a lot longer to do nothing.. so filling the time with his causes probably makes him more inclined to lobby.
    There was a documentary on her accession which had some unseen footage from the flight back from Kenya (when she famously said 'oh look, they've brought the hearses' on seeing the limos drawn up at Heathrow). Unaware she was being filmed, she was clearly lost in her thoughts, then she realises the camera is running, and she turns and smiles - and before our eyes, becomes 'queen' - she'll be a very tough act to follow.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    woody662 said:

    Plato said:

    Fascinating stuff from Mr Messina. Surely Labour had the money/volunteers to do it if they'd wanted to? The human waves of union members leafleting/canvassing could have been used in a different configuration.

    "The predictions were so far off because no company combined online, telephone and mobile phone polls because they were too expensive. “We were able to do that because we had volunteer capacity to do it . . . you gotta go all the way and get this. It’s expensive, it’s difficult, but you’re gonna miss a bunch of close races if you don’t.”

    If our experience was anything to go by, Labour were just talking to themselves and only going to known Labour households and in the end dropped nearly 2000 votes from last time. It was no wonder they always boasted of a great reception on the Labour doorstep because it was a core vote campaign which left them nowhere to go.
    One strange thing was how hard Labour were canvassing Luton South, heavily. I wondered at the time why they were working here, rather than Bedford or Stevenage. They must have got jitters from their private polling (in the end, they held it easily).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Miss Plato, aye, but the Conservatives went nowhere in 2001 and Howard only had a couple of years after the Quiet Man left. Adding 30-40 seats wasn't too bad. If they'd had Howard from 2001 then Cameron might well've gotten a majority in 2010 (and lost it the other week).

    Mood music sounding good for Mascara Man.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137

    I'm going to call the labour election now for Burnham. He seems closest to the unions, and the one they'll plump for over the others. He's a known name and labour members like their comfort candidates.

    Morning all,

    Bear in mind though, it is one member one vote now. The unions will have less of a direct say. And Labour have been clear that there will be no repeat of the nonsense where ballot papers came wrapped in pictures of Ed M.
    True, be the unions are already pushing for a delay so that they can 'sign up' affiates. You can bet your bottom dollar they will have a favourite, and push for that favourite all they can.

    and you can bet they won't be pushing for Chuka.

    No doubt. Mary Riddell may be right though, they need a leader who is prepared to consider leading the establishment of English Labour, separate from Scotland and Wales, with its own agenda.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    I'm going to call the labour election now for Burnham. He seems closest to the unions, and the one they'll plump for over the others. He's a known name and labour members like their comfort candidates.

    Morning all,

    Bear in mind though, it is one member one vote now. The unions will have less of a direct say. And Labour have been clear that there will be no repeat of the nonsense where ballot papers came wrapped in pictures of Ed M.
    True, be the unions are already pushing for a delay so that they can 'sign up' affiates. You can bet your bottom dollar they will have a favourite, and push for that favourite all they can.

    and you can bet they won't be pushing for Chuka.

    No doubt. Mary Riddell may be right though, they need a leader who is prepared to consider leading the establishment of English Labour, separate from Scotland and Wales, with its own agenda.
    That would raise questions for all of the UK though.

    Would any member of 'scottish' labour be able to really sit in the government, as presumable all the shadow members of the cabinet would be english.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    PClipp said:

    Not bizarre at all, Mr RCS. Now that they have bought their way back to an overall majority, the Conservatives are bringing forth all the hard-line Tory policies that they could not implement while they were in coalition with the Liberal Democrats - and which they kept totally our of sight during the election campaign. First off the starting block was Mrs May with the Snoopers Charter.

    So all those who had forgotten that the Conservatives were an authoritarian party (among other characeristics) are realising that there is a need for somebody to stand up for liberal values - and that has to be the Liberal Democrats. There is nobody else.

    10,000 new members since the election and counting.....

    I took a less optomistic view of LD fortunes, though even I expected double figures of LD MPs.

    We will see very quickly the difference between Conservative majority government and the coalition, and I think a large number of people will change their minds on coalition. It will be seen as a golden period of good government. Theressa May's snoopers charter is a good example, but will not be the only one.

    There is a lot of ground to recover for the LDs, but I do not detect the same fratricidal infighting that is breaking out in the other losing parties of UKIP and Labour.

    It is important that the last few years in government are reflected on, but they should not turn into navel gazing.

    As one of the signaturies of the US Declaration of Independence said "We must surely hang together, or we shall surely hang seperately"
    The Lib Dems still won 600 council seats on Thursday, so they could regenerate. The Conservatives' success was built on superb targeting, rather than widespread support.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Back in about 2010/11 - I spent a LOT of time reading the various colours of Labour themes - there were loads of them from BlueLabour via RedLabour to BlackLabour, and even PurpleLabour that IIRC was Tristram Hunt's vision of their future.

    In the end they were all dumped in favour of 70sLabour kludged with whatever was in the media as a bandwagon.

    It wouldn't take much effort to dust off all the stuff that was done just 4yrs ago and road test it.

    That Blank Sheet of Paper really was no excuse - there was a lot of select from, but supposedly RadicalEd didn't want to pick any of them in the end.

    As ever, an interesting article by Mary Riddell in Telegraph on Labour defeat. She raises a very good question: what was the point of Crudas doing all the policy work if most of it was totally ignored?

    Anyone have what Crudas actually came up with?

    The 'blank piece of paper' was touted at the time as something which would fill up with policies, but I can't see what happened to that policy review.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @arusbridger: Prince Charles's black spider memos to be published today... http://t.co/LAdPYJUpzO

    Today is the day the nation decides whether Charles becomes king....
    Is this like when TND tweets about an interesting poll?
    lol

    I'll wait to see whether or not they're actually "interesting"...

    Ultimately, IMO, it's impossible for any future monarch to be as *clean* as QE2. She was cushioned by a compliant media during her younger, more politically inquisitive years and reached constitutional maturity before the internet came about.

    I recon QE2 will be the last superhuman monarch.
    I think it is more to do with the fact she was Queen at 26. Charles has had a lot longer to do nothing.. so filling the time with his causes probably makes him more inclined to lobby.
    There was a documentary on her accession which had some unseen footage from the flight back from Kenya (when she famously said 'oh look, they've brought the hearses' on seeing the limos drawn up at Heathrow). Unaware she was being filmed, she was clearly lost in her thoughts, then she realises the camera is running, and she turns and smiles - and before our eyes, becomes 'queen' - she'll be a very tough act to follow.....
    I suspect Charles will have a Gordon Brown moment after he becomes king, and discover it isn't nearly as much fun as he thought it was going to be.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Many apologies to the grammar pedants. I've just noticed that I put an apostrophe in a plural ... "Hoey's" It's (with an apostrophe) all wrong.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,870
    By the way. I wish that threads about UKIP wouldn't keep wandering over the line of personal invective. Liberal use of 'stupid' in the last one, now a rather unnecessary dig at Farage. Undermines the credibility of the posts.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    If Carswell rejoins the Tories will he still be a traitorous pig dog. I guess he will because the press and UKIp had a field day with the defection.


    By the way what on earth is up with vanilla it's most unreabble on a phone or n I pad??
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    CD13 said:


    Carswell has refused it on principle but have any other opposition MPs ever refused it on principle? If not, why not?

    Farage has a problem here because he's set a higher standard for loose-lipped candidates that have the other parties. I don't think it's been because the media have been intrusive (which they have), it's because he likes discipline. Farage hinted at his views in his resignation speech - he finds it irritating dealing with less-disciplined people who mouth off inappropriately.

    Carswell is either a loose cannon or a free-thinker depending on your view. I'm sympathetic, but on that basis, I'd have to sympathise with the foot-in-mouth brigade too. I probably do as I was brought up to think that 'Sticks and stones ...'

    You can see why Carswell left the Tories, so I'd expect Farage to make an issue of it. But there's a bit of my party, my rules. But being 100% of the MPs, he makes it awkward for the leader. Just imagine a Labour party with only Skiners, Fields, Corbyns and Hoey's.

    Hmm ... might even be an improvement

    Carswell has the added oomph that the voters chose to give him a voice when they put him in Westminster. Farage? He was told to STFU....
    I would really like that to be true but I think Farage simply has too much power in the party and will ignore the fact he was rejected and carry on regardless - to the detriment of the party and the movement as a whole. I would like to be wrong on this and to find that Farage realises the damage he can do if he carries on the way he has been but history does not give me much hope of that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    PClipp said:

    I remember how bullish you were 5 weeks ago. How dismissive of those saying you would get smashed. Why should we listen to a thing you say?

    Because we have a corrupt system where 72 milion pounds can buy you Tories your way back into office. It will be very interesting to see what the final figures for expenditure turn out to be.

    I bet the Tories spent less than £72m

    How about a bet: 1pt = a full £1m below £72m for Tory spent in the GE (official figures). I'll be any amount you want up to £5 per point
    Does include the value of volunteers time? I understand that the Charity Commission wants that allowed for in Charitides accounts
    No. I'm not expecting @PClipp to take the bet.

    The £72m figure he is referencing was the Tories *total* fundrasing over the last 5 years. They had debts from the previous election, operating expenses, a warchest for a second election and the general election spending to come out of thar
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm surprised he didn't call it Ashcroft's Millions - that mythical beast in GE2010.
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    PClipp said:

    I remember how bullish you were 5 weeks ago. How dismissive of those saying you would get smashed. Why should we listen to a thing you say?

    Because we have a corrupt system where 72 milion pounds can buy you Tories your way back into office. It will be very interesting to see what the final figures for expenditure turn out to be.

    I bet the Tories spent less than £72m

    How about a bet: 1pt = a full £1m below £72m for Tory spent in the GE (official figures). I'll be any amount you want up to £5 per point
    Does include the value of volunteers time? I understand that the Charity Commission wants that allowed for in Charitides accounts
    No. I'm not expecting @PClipp to take the bet.

    The £72m figure he is referencing was the Tories *total* fundrasing over the last 5 years. They had debts from the previous election, operating expenses, a warchest for a second election and the general election spending to come out of thar
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    PClipp said:

    I remember how bullish you were 5 weeks ago. How dismissive of those saying you would get smashed. Why should we listen to a thing you say?

    Because we have a corrupt system where 72 milion pounds can buy you Tories your way back into office. It will be very interesting to see what the final figures for expenditure turn out to be.

    I bet the Tories spent less than £72m

    How about a bet: 1pt = a full £1m below £72m for Tory spent in the GE (official figures). I'll be any amount you want up to £5 per point
    Does include the value of volunteers time? I understand that the Charity Commission wants that allowed for in Charitides accounts
    No. I'm not expecting @PClipp to take the bet.

    The £72m figure he is referencing was the Tories *total* fundrasing over the last 5 years. They had debts from the previous election, operating expenses, a warchest for a second election and the general election spending to come out of thar
    It bodes well for the future, for the tories, that there are lefties who really think they lost the election because £72m, and for no other reason at all.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    A good analogy for where Labour stand right now is the England football team.. Stuck playing the long ball, outwitted by the latino countries and often losing badly.

    Furthermore Labour's links to the unions are a millstone round their necks, but they cannot function without their money.

    Unless Dave has a terrible Parliament, I don't see any way back for Labour in 2020
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Are there going to be 27 threads on how the Betfair Tories came a cropper this election?

    By UNDER-estimating the scale of victory?

    Yes, the p&l was damaged slightly by Dave getting those 6 seats or so at the end, but only a couple of hundred -

    Never ever underestimate the Tories.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Sean_F said:


    The Conservatives' success was built on superb targeting, rather than widespread support.

    Indeed, and the crucial swing was not from enthusiastic Tories but those put off by the SNP and Ed Milliband. Not a set of circumstances that will repeat in 2020. A good performance by the Tories in government over the next 5 years is crucial.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2015
    Is it not somewhat ironic that the leaders of both the SNP and UKIP are not MPs and technically have no power over the short money or on how their party MPs vote in the HoC.

    Sturgeon may huff and puff and make all sort of pronouncements, but in reality she is powerless. Will Salmond make a show of his independence in Parliament?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    And the Greenies.
    Financier said:

    Is it not somewhat ironic that the leaders of both the SNP and UKIP are not MPs and technically have no power over the short money or on how their party MPs vote in the HoC.

    Sturgeon may huff and puff and make all sort of pronouncements, but in reality she is powerless. Will Salmond make a show of his independence in Parliament?

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    A good analogy for where Labour stand right now is the England football team.. Stuck playing the long ball, outwitted by the latino countries and often losing badly.

    Furthermore Labour's links to the unions are a millstone round their necks, but they cannot function without their money.

    Unless Dave has a terrible Parliament, I don't see any way back for Labour in 2020

    The key to understanding Labour's way back is to remember it is Messina what won it. This has two corollaries. First, next time Labour (and everyone else) can have the same sophisticated voter targeting. Second, there was no great groundswell of enthusiasm for Cameroonism or whatever was in the manifesto, giving ample opportunity for voters to choke on their cornflakes when they see what HMG actually does.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    JonathanD said:

    Sean_F said:


    The Conservatives' success was built on superb targeting, rather than widespread support.

    Indeed, and the crucial swing was not from enthusiastic Tories but those put off by the SNP and Ed Milliband. Not a set of circumstances that will repeat in 2020. A good performance by the Tories in government over the next 5 years is crucial.

    The SNP are going nowhere, alot of their seats are quite safe now - sure they may lose a few but they have big majorities in most of them.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I notice that you seem very unwilling to accept that Mr Crosby was the other side of the Messina coin - you can't use data without deploying the troops with the right message.

    What do you want Labour to do now?

    A good analogy for where Labour stand right now is the England football team.. Stuck playing the long ball, outwitted by the latino countries and often losing badly.

    Furthermore Labour's links to the unions are a millstone round their necks, but they cannot function without their money.

    Unless Dave has a terrible Parliament, I don't see any way back for Labour in 2020

    The key to understanding Labour's way back is to remember it is Messina what won it. This has two corollaries. First, next time Labour (and everyone else) can have the same sophisticated voter targeting. Second, there was no great groundswell of enthusiasm for Cameroonism or whatever was in the manifesto, giving ample opportunity for voters to choke on their cornflakes when they see what HMG actually does.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Unemployment down 35000 = 5.5%
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Scott_P said:

    Burnham opposed by more than three quarters? In a five-runner race, support from just over a fifth of MPs is surely just par for the course, to mix sporting metaphors.

    But Burnham is also the union favoured candidate
    Unions are employing call-centre staff to persuade their members to vote in Labour’s leadership contest, as they try to maintain their influence over the outcome.

    The rules were changed last year to limit the power of the unions to choose Labour’s next leader. Yet senior party figures are worried by how easy it has become for unions to sign up potentially hundreds of thousands of affiliates within weeks.

    Unions that want to sign up their members as an “affiliate” — with the right to vote on the Labour leadership — only have to phone them up, ask for confirmation of their address and get an assurance that they want to affiliate to Labour.

    No money needs to change hands, yet this procedure then gives them the same voting rights as full Labour party membership, which costs £46.56 a year.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4438615.ece

    Fabulous stuff. Butcher gets finagled into office by the unions within a week of defeat and then any reflection on why they lost that comes later is of no assistance because Butcher's the leader and just thinks they need to be a bit more left wing to win. Wonderful news!

    What's even better is that one can now see a path to leadership for Chuka in 2020 that ensures a further defeat in 2025.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    So if DC wants to offer the SNP FFA, does he offer it to Sturgeon or the leader of the SNPs in Parliament - because it will be Parliament that passes any legislation.
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    JonathanD said:

    Sean_F said:


    The Conservatives' success was built on superb targeting, rather than widespread support.

    Indeed, and the crucial swing was not from enthusiastic Tories but those put off by the SNP and Ed Milliband. Not a set of circumstances that will repeat in 2020. A good performance by the Tories in government over the next 5 years is crucial.


    That surely is reliant on Labour choosing a sensible leader who understands and moves to the middle ground. A big assumption in my view...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    198 is just an appalling total. I'd forgotten is was less than 200. Just embarrassing.

    Miss Plato, after the 2005 General Election the Conservatives had 198 seats. Today it has 331.

    Labour's gone from 355 to 232.

    Edited extra bit: and the Lib Dems from 62 to 8.

    Still 25x the LibDem figure... :naughty:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 2m2 minutes ago
    UK unemployment fell by 35,000 between January and March to 1.83 million, official figures show http://bbc.in/1cRPZ30
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Wages up too :D
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    I think Ukip and Farage are at a crossroads. He wants a party that is disciplined and will fit in more at Westminster; he may see it as steady progress. Or he has to concede that it may be more akin to trying to herd cats and regard that as an advantage.

    The transition from rebellious outsiders to rebels taking advantage of the trappings of government and the establishment.

    Interesting times.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    The green surrounds are so peaceful. It is a pleasure to read the thread this morning.

    At the risk of ridicule we have probably seen peak UKIP now. I think the Tories have a good chance of ingathering at least 1m of their supporters at the next election unless the wheels have come off in a big way.

    Carswell is a bit of an odd bod who is very keen on ploughing his own furrow. He is an original thinker who comes up with the odd good idea and a lot of, well, less good ones. In a large party such eccentricity can be tolerated although there is a view that the Tory party is rather too tolerant of some of their awkward squad and it must be one of Cameron's main worries with his current majority. In a very small party (in terms of Westminster representation) it is a recipe for chaos.

    To take the current issue Carswell might want to reflect on how much money the party spent getting him elected and running a national campaign. As he is not in the Labour or SNP parties he presumably is not under the illusion that this money grew on a tree somewhere. If UKIP are going to maintain any kind of national presence, as they deserve to with 3.8m votes, they need that money. He is just being other worldly or trying to make a point about who can do what. He is wrong in this instance.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jameskirkup: Douglas Carswell is a decent man. How long can he put up with Ukip? | via @Telegraph http://t.co/11joecnqEO
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Oh dear - Nats running Scotland

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 3m3 minutes ago
    Unemployment in Scotland rose by 19,000 - to 168,000 - in the three months January-March http://bbc.in/1K5JQOi #ScotlandLive
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    JonathanD said:

    Sean_F said:


    The Conservatives' success was built on superb targeting, rather than widespread support.

    Indeed, and the crucial swing was not from enthusiastic Tories but those put off by the SNP and Ed Milliband. Not a set of circumstances that will repeat in 2020. A good performance by the Tories in government over the next 5 years is crucial.


    That surely is reliant on Labour choosing a sensible leader who understands and moves to the middle ground. A big assumption in my view...
    The middle ground is a red herring if the actual problems -- the ones which determined votes -- were Ed Miliband being a grade A melon and fear of the SNP.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited May 2015
    CD13 said:


    Carswell has refused it on principle but have any other opposition MPs ever refused it on principle? If not, why not?

    Farage has a problem here because he's set a higher standard for loose-lipped candidates that have the other parties. I don't think it's been because the media have been intrusive (which they have), it's because he likes discipline. Farage hinted at his views in his resignation speech - he finds it irritating dealing with less-disciplined people who mouth off inappropriately.

    Carswell is either a loose cannon or a free-thinker depending on your view. I'm sympathetic, but on that basis, I'd have to sympathise with the foot-in-mouth brigade too. I probably do as I was brought up to think that 'Sticks and stones ...'

    You can see why Carswell left the Tories, so I'd expect Farage to make an issue of it. But there's a bit of my party, my rules. But being 100% of the MPs, he makes it awkward for the leader. Just imagine a Labour party with only Skiners, Fields, Corbyns and Hoey's.

    Hmm ... might even be an improvement

    Farage is just a trougher par excellence and simply does not, does not get why Carswell won't plunge grasping hands shoulder-deep into this trough. It is just utterly bewildering to him.

    Let's not fotget that all the while during this campaign Farage was ostensibly a working MEP!

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    198 is just an appalling total. I'd forgotten is was less than 200. Just embarrassing.

    Miss Plato, after the 2005 General Election the Conservatives had 198 seats. Today it has 331.

    Labour's gone from 355 to 232.

    Edited extra bit: and the Lib Dems from 62 to 8.

    Still 25x the LibDem figure... :naughty:
    62 down to 8. Extraordinary. Yet UKIP get all the threads here on a comparatively uninteresting 2 to 1 drop. Odd.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    DavidL said:

    The green surrounds are so peaceful. It is a pleasure to read the thread this morning.

    At the risk of ridicule we have probably seen peak UKIP now. I think the Tories have a good chance of ingathering at least 1m of their supporters at the next election unless the wheels have come off in a big way.

    Carswell is a bit of an odd bod who is very keen on ploughing his own furrow. He is an original thinker who comes up with the odd good idea and a lot of, well, less good ones. In a large party such eccentricity can be tolerated although there is a view that the Tory party is rather too tolerant of some of their awkward squad and it must be one of Cameron's main worries with his current majority. In a very small party (in terms of Westminster representation) it is a recipe for chaos.

    To take the current issue Carswell might want to reflect on how much money the party spent getting him elected and running a national campaign. As he is not in the Labour or SNP parties he presumably is not under the illusion that this money grew on a tree somewhere. If UKIP are going to maintain any kind of national presence, as they deserve to with 3.8m votes, they need that money. He is just being other worldly or trying to make a point about who can do what. He is wrong in this instance.

    Yes but probably for the first time he has power that he would like to control. Probably nobody thought about short money pre-election, or that Farage would lose.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - Nats running Scotland

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 3m3 minutes ago
    Unemployment in Scotland rose by 19,000 - to 168,000 - in the three months January-March http://bbc.in/1K5JQOi #ScotlandLive

    Thats awful figures, especially when compared with the UK as a whole.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Plato said:

    Unemployment down 35000 = 5.5%

    Would have been down more without the threat of the Lab\SNP nightmare.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I love the snark at the end: "[the expenses regime] is perceived by MPs to be much tougher than its predecessor" (my italics).

    But really, why don't they just introduce a centralised purchasing organisation, at least for laptops and IT equipment. Bolt it on to the Cabinet office or somewhere & you can probably handle it would any additional overhead, so the cost savings would flow straight through (say 1500 laptops @ £1,000 each, 30% saving - close to £0.5m saving straight away & then none of the temptation to abuse it).
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    A good analogy for where Labour stand right now is the England football team.. Stuck playing the long ball, outwitted by the latino countries and often losing badly.

    Furthermore Labour's links to the unions are a millstone round their necks, but they cannot function without their money.

    Unless Dave has a terrible Parliament, I don't see any way back for Labour in 2020

    I agree any labour progress in 2020 is likely to be limited. but sooner or later an economic mishap will occur for which gordon brown isnt seen as the ultimate cause and the electorate will give them another chance. just so long as their policies and leadership aren't repellant.

    centre-left ought to be the default government of every democracy. if you can get the votes of the poorer 55% by taxing the richer 45% you're in. but you need to look economically competent and not just be interested in creating millions of public sector jobs with crippling pension commitments.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - Nats running Scotland

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 3m3 minutes ago
    Unemployment in Scotland rose by 19,000 - to 168,000 - in the three months January-March http://bbc.in/1K5JQOi #ScotlandLive

    Thats awful figures, especially when compared with the UK as a whole.

    Not surprising though - socialist party ruining the Scottish economy.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    TBH, I tend to only read Mr Herdson's thread headers - the rest don't grab me very often.

    Have we had *any* about why the LDs did so badly despite all the reasons they were immune from electoral gravity for the last 5 yrs?
    Ishmael_X said:

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    198 is just an appalling total. I'd forgotten is was less than 200. Just embarrassing.

    Miss Plato, after the 2005 General Election the Conservatives had 198 seats. Today it has 331.

    Labour's gone from 355 to 232.

    Edited extra bit: and the Lib Dems from 62 to 8.

    Still 25x the LibDem figure... :naughty:
    62 down to 8. Extraordinary. Yet UKIP get all the threads here on a comparatively uninteresting 2 to 1 drop. Odd.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Ishmael_X said:

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    198 is just an appalling total. I'd forgotten is was less than 200. Just embarrassing.

    Miss Plato, after the 2005 General Election the Conservatives had 198 seats. Today it has 331.

    Labour's gone from 355 to 232.

    Edited extra bit: and the Lib Dems from 62 to 8.

    Still 25x the LibDem figure... :naughty:
    62 down to 8. Extraordinary. Yet UKIP get all the threads here on a comparatively uninteresting 2 to 1 drop. Odd.
    Yes, the Lib Dems had a catastrophe - even the Lib Dem bears like rcs lost a touch because they overestimated them.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ishmael_X said:

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    198 is just an appalling total. I'd forgotten is was less than 200. Just embarrassing.

    Miss Plato, after the 2005 General Election the Conservatives had 198 seats. Today it has 331.

    Labour's gone from 355 to 232.

    Edited extra bit: and the Lib Dems from 62 to 8.

    Still 25x the LibDem figure... :naughty:
    62 down to 8. Extraordinary. Yet UKIP get all the threads here on a comparatively uninteresting 2 to 1 drop. Odd.
    UKIP make for better box office. There is a carnival-like air about them.

    The Lib Dems' problems are less entertaining but far more serious. Overnight they have been nearly obliterated completely. The next Lib Dem leader has a fearsomely hard job ahead of him.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Plato said:

    I notice that you seem very unwilling to accept that Mr Crosby was the other side of the Messina coin - you can't use data without deploying the troops with the right message.

    What do you want Labour to do now?

    A good analogy for where Labour stand right now is the England football team.. Stuck playing the long ball, outwitted by the latino countries and often losing badly.

    Furthermore Labour's links to the unions are a millstone round their necks, but they cannot function without their money.

    Unless Dave has a terrible Parliament, I don't see any way back for Labour in 2020

    The key to understanding Labour's way back is to remember it is Messina what won it. This has two corollaries. First, next time Labour (and everyone else) can have the same sophisticated voter targeting. Second, there was no great groundswell of enthusiasm for Cameroonism or whatever was in the manifesto, giving ample opportunity for voters to choke on their cornflakes when they see what HMG actually does.
    Yes, I do think Crosby was less significant. But even if it was 50/50 or even 80/20 Crosby, how does that change the argument that the Conservatives only won because of technical aspects of their campaigning?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I thought I was being a Blue Meanie forecasting 17 seats and I still was wrong by over 100%!
    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    198 is just an appalling total. I'd forgotten is was less than 200. Just embarrassing.

    Miss Plato, after the 2005 General Election the Conservatives had 198 seats. Today it has 331.

    Labour's gone from 355 to 232.

    Edited extra bit: and the Lib Dems from 62 to 8.

    Still 25x the LibDem figure... :naughty:
    62 down to 8. Extraordinary. Yet UKIP get all the threads here on a comparatively uninteresting 2 to 1 drop. Odd.
    Yes, the Lib Dems had a catastrophe - even the Lib Dem bears like rcs lost a touch because they overestimated them.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
    If he has taken the kids out of school I hope he gets fined £60 a day like other people are.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What do you want to happen to Labour?

    And I still think you are incorrect about Crosby - as someone who's run many data/boots on the ground/messaging campaigns = none works without the other.

    Labour had Alexrod and the other bloke. Why didn't that work for Labour to the same extent?

    Plato said:

    I notice that you seem very unwilling to accept that Mr Crosby was the other side of the Messina coin - you can't use data without deploying the troops with the right message.

    What do you want Labour to do now?

    A good analogy for where Labour stand right now is the England football team.. Stuck playing the long ball, outwitted by the latino countries and often losing badly.

    Furthermore Labour's links to the unions are a millstone round their necks, but they cannot function without their money.

    Unless Dave has a terrible Parliament, I don't see any way back for Labour in 2020

    The key to understanding Labour's way back is to remember it is Messina what won it. This has two corollaries. First, next time Labour (and everyone else) can have the same sophisticated voter targeting. Second, there was no great groundswell of enthusiasm for Cameroonism or whatever was in the manifesto, giving ample opportunity for voters to choke on their cornflakes when they see what HMG actually does.
    Yes, I do think Crosby was less significant. But even if it was 50/50 or even 80/20 Crosby, how does that change the argument that the Conservatives only won because of technical aspects of their campaigning?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
    What's your point? That we should vote against him? That happened last week and now he has resigned.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
    Just really illustrates EdM's true loyalty and ambitions, not to Labour and its supporters but for personal power - now that has gone he is off.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
    If he has taken the kids out of school I hope he gets fined £60 a day like other people are.
    He didn;t take the kids.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - Nats running Scotland

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 3m3 minutes ago
    Unemployment in Scotland rose by 19,000 - to 168,000 - in the three months January-March http://bbc.in/1K5JQOi #ScotlandLive

    Thats awful figures, especially when compared with the UK as a whole.

    The Scottish figures are mainly a reflection of the downturn in employment in the North Sea which is still feeding through the system. Just another illustration of the risks of having an economy so dependent on a single source of wealth not only for government revenues but also for employment.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
    If he has taken the kids out of school I hope he gets fined £60 a day like other people are.
    No his children have been left at home - surely you would have thought that he would have wanted to spend time with them?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I see Greece has used money supplied by the IMF - to pay the IMF loans...

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4438313.ece
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    I'm going to call the labour election now for Burnham. He seems closest to the unions, and the one they'll plump for over the others. He's a known name and labour members like their comfort candidates.

    A lightweight and an opportunist tainted by the past. Dare I venture:

    Andy Burnham Will Never Be Prime Minister?

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11600843/Ukip-embroiled-in-leadership-row-over-use-of-millions-of-pounds-of-public-money.html

    “Why do party staffers think that I need 15 staff? That is maybe because they want to be the staff."

    Sharks, Dougie. You're swimmin' with sharks. They're not your friends.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - Nats running Scotland

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 3m3 minutes ago
    Unemployment in Scotland rose by 19,000 - to 168,000 - in the three months January-March http://bbc.in/1K5JQOi #ScotlandLive

    Thats awful figures, especially when compared with the UK as a whole.

    The Scottish figures are mainly a reflection of the downturn in employment in the North Sea which is still feeding through the system. Just another illustration of the risks of having an economy so dependent on a single source of wealth not only for government revenues but also for employment.
    That sounds like an excuse David - this is the 3rd or 4th month in a row. Also the zero tolerance drink driving laws (SNP brought in) is killing the hospitality industry.

    Sturg should be getting hauled over the coals for this.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175

    A good analogy for where Labour stand right now is the England football team.. Stuck playing the long ball, outwitted by the latino countries and often losing badly.

    Furthermore Labour's links to the unions are a millstone round their necks, but they cannot function without their money.

    Unless Dave has a terrible Parliament, I don't see any way back for Labour in 2020

    The key to understanding Labour's way back is to remember it is Messina what won it. This has two corollaries. First, next time Labour (and everyone else) can have the same sophisticated voter targeting. Second, there was no great groundswell of enthusiasm for Cameroonism or whatever was in the manifesto, giving ample opportunity for voters to choke on their cornflakes when they see what HMG actually does.
    I love the way all those supporters of Lab/LD are rushing around to conclude that they did nothing wrong and Messina won it for the Tories who the electorate still don't really like. All these comfort blankets to avoid addressing the real problem - that both were crap and that the Tories were in tune with the electorate. Today's news on earnings and employment just confirming that the voters knew their business and made the right choice.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
    If he has taken the kids out of school I hope he gets fined £60 a day like other people are.
    Which ever way you look at it, thats a good point. Have they left the 'kids' behind? How quick was he to book a flight and hotel. Within hours of the exit poll.
    A lucky escape for the nation I'd say.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Financier said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
    If he has taken the kids out of school I hope he gets fined £60 a day like other people are.
    No his children have been left at home - surely you would have thought that he would have wanted to spend time with them?
    I would certainly have thought so, but he does have some strange family priorities.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Plato said:

    What do you want to happen to Labour?

    And I still think you are incorrect about Crosby - as someone who's run many data/boots on the ground/messaging campaigns = none works without the other.

    Labour had Alexrod and the other bloke. Why didn't that work for Labour to the same extent?

    Plato said:

    I notice that you seem very unwilling to accept that Mr Crosby was the other side of the Messina coin - you can't use data without deploying the troops with the right message.

    What do you want Labour to do now?

    A good analogy for where Labour stand right now is the England football team.. Stuck playing the long ball, outwitted by the latino countries and often losing badly.

    Furthermore Labour's links to the unions are a millstone round their necks, but they cannot function without their money.

    Unless Dave has a terrible Parliament, I don't see any way back for Labour in 2020

    The key to understanding Labour's way back is to remember it is Messina what won it. This has two corollaries. First, next time Labour (and everyone else) can have the same sophisticated voter targeting. Second, there was no great groundswell of enthusiasm for Cameroonism or whatever was in the manifesto, giving ample opportunity for voters to choke on their cornflakes when they see what HMG actually does.
    Yes, I do think Crosby was less significant. But even if it was 50/50 or even 80/20 Crosby, how does that change the argument that the Conservatives only won because of technical aspects of their campaigning?
    Because Axelrod wasn't a data guy? In any case, even if you are right about Crosby, it does not affect the argument that David Cameron owes his position as Prime Minister to a technically better campaign rather than to any great popular enthusiasm for his manifesto.

    The campaign advantage will likely be nullified next time, and the second point leaves plenty of scope for buyer's remorse.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    Oh and a few days before the GE when the polls looked dodgy £1 = €1.35 - today £1 = €1.42

    QED
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    I see Greece has used money supplied by the IMF - to pay the IMF loans...

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4438313.ece

    Unless the ECB has a similar fund, I think this was the last port of call. Not sure when Greece has to make further payments, but it cannot be that far away. Fancy buying a Greek island or two?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Ed was indeed crap and the British people rejected him.

    Surely that is enough? Leave him alone.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Financier said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
    If he has taken the kids out of school I hope he gets fined £60 a day like other people are.
    No his children have been left at home - surely you would have thought that he would have wanted to spend time with them?
    I get it, it's possible to criticise Ed no matter what he does. Isn't there enough that genuinely deserves criticism?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    CD13 said:


    I think Ukip and Farage are at a crossroads. He wants a party that is disciplined and will fit in more at Westminster; he may see it as steady progress. Or he has to concede that it may be more akin to trying to herd cats and regard that as an advantage.

    The transition from rebellious outsiders to rebels taking advantage of the trappings of government and the establishment.

    Interesting times.

    The problem is that discipline works both ways and right now the most undiscplined member of UKIP is Farage himself.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175

    Plato said:

    What do you want to happen to Labour?

    And I still think you are incorrect about Crosby - as someone who's run many data/boots on the ground/messaging campaigns = none works without the other.

    Labour had Alexrod and the other bloke. Why didn't that work for Labour to the same extent?

    Plato said:

    I notice that you seem very unwilling to accept that Mr Crosby was the other side of the Messina coin - you can't use data without deploying the troops with the right message.

    What do you want Labour to do now?

    A good analogy for where Labour stand right now is the England football team.. Stuck playing the long ball, outwitted by the latino countries and often losing badly.

    Furthermore Labour's links to the unions are a millstone round their necks, but they cannot function without their money.

    Unless Dave has a terrible Parliament, I don't see any way back for Labour in 2020

    The key to understanding Labour's way back is to remember it is Messina what won it. This has two corollaries. First, next time Labour (and everyone else) can have the same sophisticated voter targeting. Second, there was no great groundswell of enthusiasm for Cameroonism or whatever was in the manifesto, giving ample opportunity for voters to choke on their cornflakes when they see what HMG actually does.
    Yes, I do think Crosby was less significant. But even if it was 50/50 or even 80/20 Crosby, how does that change the argument that the Conservatives only won because of technical aspects of their campaigning?
    Because Axelrod wasn't a data guy? In any case, even if you are right about Crosby, it does not affect the argument that David Cameron owes his position as Prime Minister to a technically better campaign rather than to any great popular enthusiasm for his manifesto.

    The campaign advantage will likely be nullified next time, and the second point leaves plenty of scope for buyer's remorse.
    That last sentence is a keeper :)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    [ADMIN] now vanilla's latest "improvement" means previous quotes are shown, can OGH please choose and enforce either a top-quoting policy or a bottom-quoting one. It gets very confusing when some posters comment at the top, with quotes underneath, while others comment underneath the quotes. After a couple of nestings, it is very hard to read the resulting mess.

    It does not matter which is chosen, but this new format means there does need to be a standard.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    I think you are in a strange form of denial.

    Labour had a data guy didn't they - who was he?

    And you're claiming that the data won, but the Tory Offer wasn't the reason they won.

    Well - that's the first time a database won when the message was crap.

    And for the third time - What Do You Want Labour To Do?

    You're deflecting and talking whataboutery. As a lifelong Labourman - I'd hope you had a view about the future of your Party.



    Because Axelrod wasn't a data guy? In any case, even if you are right about Crosby, it does not affect the argument that David Cameron owes his position as Prime Minister to a technically better campaign rather than to any great popular enthusiasm for his manifesto.

    The campaign advantage will likely be nullified next time, and the second point leaves plenty of scope for buyer's remorse.

  • "Now the speculation is that Carswell might leave and there’s even a betting market that he’ll rejoin the Tories"

    Where PfP leads others follow!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Plato said:

    I think you are in a strange form of denial.

    Labour had a data guy didn't they - who was he?

    And you're claiming that the data won, but the Tory Offer wasn't the reason they won.

    Well - that's the first time a database won when the message was crap.

    And for the third time - What Do You Want Labour To Do?

    You're deflecting and talking whataboutery. As a lifelong Labourman - I'd hope you had a view about the future of your Party.



    Because Axelrod wasn't a data guy? In any case, even if you are right about Crosby, it does not affect the argument that David Cameron owes his position as Prime Minister to a technically better campaign rather than to any great popular enthusiasm for his manifesto.

    The campaign advantage will likely be nullified next time, and the second point leaves plenty of scope for buyer's remorse.

    He's in the denial stage, the 'our policies were right, our man was right, we just didn't sell it/campaign it properly' stage
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - Nats running Scotland

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 3m3 minutes ago
    Unemployment in Scotland rose by 19,000 - to 168,000 - in the three months January-March http://bbc.in/1K5JQOi #ScotlandLive

    Thats awful figures, especially when compared with the UK as a whole.

    The Scottish figures are mainly a reflection of the downturn in employment in the North Sea which is still feeding through the system. Just another illustration of the risks of having an economy so dependent on a single source of wealth not only for government revenues but also for employment.
    That sounds like an excuse David - this is the 3rd or 4th month in a row. Also the zero tolerance drink driving laws (SNP brought in) is killing the hospitality industry.

    Sturg should be getting hauled over the coals for this.
    Well being accused of making excuses for the SNP is a new one for me!

    But the consequences of the downturn in the North Sea are very considerable. Contracts are coming to an end and not being renewed. Investment is right down. Some of the excesses (such as having half the hotel rooms in Aberdeen booked just in case people come onshore unexpectedly) have been cut back. Because of the structure of the industry this has not generated the headline redundancies that other industries might but it has been large and is on going.

    I agree about the drink driving limit. That was a piece of self-inflicted stupidity that we could have done without. Our local publican was telling me it has hit them harder than the smoking ban.

    The other worry is that there are hints that some of the contingency plans put in place by financial services before the Referendum are quietly being implemented. The continuing uncertainty is not good for business. Not at all.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Financier said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why ed was not crap, by Sunny Hundal:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/he-may-be-gone-but-heres-why-milibands-legacy-will-continue-to-define-labour/

    "On the day of Ed Miliband’s resignation, I texted one of his closest aides to ask why he wouldn’t stay on as caretaker while a new leader was chosen. The reply came back fast: “He was just too tired and had taken on too much for his family. He’s a really good man, Sunny. The likes of which we just don’t see in politics.” "

    So what if he had won? An overtired and out-of-his-depth PM on day 1?

    If he'd won, he wouldn't have been depressed about losing. In fact, probably all PMs are tired on day one, because they've been campaigning for weeks and then stayed up all night watching the results.
    But it's how you cope with tiredness and depression. Not, ideally, by ignoring your own party's best interests and sodding off to Ibiza because you can afford to.
    If he has taken the kids out of school I hope he gets fined £60 a day like other people are.
    No his children have been left at home - surely you would have thought that he would have wanted to spend time with them?
    A subtle bit of rewriting there. If we look at the advantages that Miliband had. His victory over his brother for the leadership seems to always stalk him, i dont know why. He used signficant cunning and guile in manipulating the rules, and using union support to go from being the underdog to winner.

    I actually think that is a good skill!!! Was he sincere? I think he was, though he tended to get blown off course putting out pledges about things he really didnt believe in such as further immigration control.

    People were willing him to do well. But he was not able to give the electorate a convincing story. The predictions of hell freezing over, triple dip recessions, rising crime, people on the streets etc just didnt happen.

    Even the old mantra about the recovery being stuck in London wasnt ringing true either. Unemployment is dropping like a stone all over the country.

    He had ideas that were popular, but he lacked the credibility to put them in place.

    He had the advantages that Hague never had when he took over. Hague could never have won in 2001. Miliband had the chance and blew it.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    There is a simple solution for Carswell. Run for party leader and then build UKIP into the sort of party he wants it to be and less of a one-man party / cult.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Plato said:

    I think you are in a strange form of denial.

    Labour had a data guy didn't they - who was he?

    And you're claiming that the data won, but the Tory Offer wasn't the reason they won.

    Well - that's the first time a database won when the message was crap.

    And for the third time - What Do You Want Labour To Do?

    You're deflecting and talking whataboutery. As a lifelong Labourman - I'd hope you had a view about the future of your Party.



    Because Axelrod wasn't a data guy? In any case, even if you are right about Crosby, it does not affect the argument that David Cameron owes his position as Prime Minister to a technically better campaign rather than to any great popular enthusiasm for his manifesto.

    The campaign advantage will likely be nullified next time, and the second point leaves plenty of scope for buyer's remorse.

    He's in the denial stage, the 'our policies were right, our man was right, we just didn't sell it/campaign it properly' stage
    The Tories didn't really win the election. Just as Margaret Thatcher was not really, in the eyes of the feminist left, a woman and Ed Miliband is not a selfish, petulant rich kid for marking his disappointment of millions of hard-working supporters by swanning off to ibiza. I love the left.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    There is a simple solution for Carswell. Run for party leader and then build UKIP into the sort of party he wants it to be and less of a one-man party / cult.

    That option does not exist for the next 4 years or so since Farage was re-elected leader last October.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2015
    Even the most partisan Tory would admit they won because people were horrified at the thought of the SNP propping up a labour govt... The Tory canvassers on here regularly said it came up unprompted as the key concern from voters

    The SNP didn't want that either so both parties got their wish.

    I hope it means the break up of the union. It is inevitable and would be good news for English people
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Plato said:

    I think you are in a strange form of denial.

    Labour had a data guy didn't they - who was he?

    And you're claiming that the data won, but the Tory Offer wasn't the reason they won.

    Well - that's the first time a database won when the message was crap.

    And for the third time - What Do You Want Labour To Do?

    You're deflecting and talking whataboutery. As a lifelong Labourman - I'd hope you had a view about the future of your Party.



    Because Axelrod wasn't a data guy? In any case, even if you are right about Crosby, it does not affect the argument that David Cameron owes his position as Prime Minister to a technically better campaign rather than to any great popular enthusiasm for his manifesto.

    The campaign advantage will likely be nullified next time, and the second point leaves plenty of scope for buyer's remorse.

    I'm not a Labour man and have never belonged to the party. On the subject of data and campaigns, I think a trawl through the archives might show I was the first to draw attention to the new paradigm introduced by the Obama team, and to post links to videos like this one: How We Used Data to Win the Presidential Election.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71bH8z6iqSc

    By next time, I expect Labour and probably every other party to have caught up. Hindsight is GE2020.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - Nats running Scotland

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 3m3 minutes ago
    Unemployment in Scotland rose by 19,000 - to 168,000 - in the three months January-March http://bbc.in/1K5JQOi #ScotlandLive

    Thats awful figures, especially when compared with the UK as a whole.

    The Scottish figures are mainly a reflection of the downturn in employment in the North Sea which is still feeding through the system. Just another illustration of the risks of having an economy so dependent on a single source of wealth not only for government revenues but also for employment.
    That sounds like an excuse David - this is the 3rd or 4th month in a row. Also the zero tolerance drink driving laws (SNP brought in) is killing the hospitality industry.

    Sturg should be getting hauled over the coals for this.
    Well being accused of making excuses for the SNP is a new one for me!

    But the consequences of the downturn in the North Sea are very considerable. Contracts are coming to an end and not being renewed. Investment is right down. Some of the excesses (such as having half the hotel rooms in Aberdeen booked just in case people come onshore unexpectedly) have been cut back. Because of the structure of the industry this has not generated the headline redundancies that other industries might but it has been large and is on going.

    I agree about the drink driving limit. That was a piece of self-inflicted stupidity that we could have done without. Our local publican was telling me it has hit them harder than the smoking ban.

    The other worry is that there are hints that some of the contingency plans put in place by financial services before the Referendum are quietly being implemented. The continuing uncertainty is not good for business. Not at all.
    And its without any kind of scientific reasoning. It's one of those things that pretty much cant be rolled back. Who would risk their political career on the next headline about a fatal car crash with someone who had one glass of wine, but under limit?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Plato said:

    I think you are in a strange form of denial.

    Labour had a data guy didn't they - who was he?

    And you're claiming that the data won, but the Tory Offer wasn't the reason they won.

    Well - that's the first time a database won when the message was crap.

    And for the third time - What Do You Want Labour To Do?

    You're deflecting and talking whataboutery. As a lifelong Labourman - I'd hope you had a view about the future of your Party.



    Because Axelrod wasn't a data guy? In any case, even if you are right about Crosby, it does not affect the argument that David Cameron owes his position as Prime Minister to a technically better campaign rather than to any great popular enthusiasm for his manifesto.

    The campaign advantage will likely be nullified next time, and the second point leaves plenty of scope for buyer's remorse.

    He's in the denial stage, the 'our policies were right, our man was right, we just didn't sell it/campaign it properly' stage
    Stage 2: It was all the tory media's fault.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Grexit looming large with the associated fall of 10% in UK GDP and the meltdown of Europe....
    Are there any odds available on Cameron taking us out of Europe without a referendum?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    The latest education study was mentioned below.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32608772

    Note the following:
    In the UK, the study shows about one in five youngsters leave school without reaching a basic level of education - and the OECD says that reducing this number and improving skills could add trillions of dollars to the UK economy.
    Which I have been banging on about for years. We concentrate far too much on results at the top end, and not at the bottom, which is a much harder problem to fix.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    @DavidL Apologies for going a bit OTT at you in the lead up to the GE, was quite caught up in my Scottish book at times.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - Nats running Scotland

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 3m3 minutes ago
    Unemployment in Scotland rose by 19,000 - to 168,000 - in the three months January-March http://bbc.in/1K5JQOi #ScotlandLive

    Thats awful figures, especially when compared with the UK as a whole.

    The Scottish figures are mainly a reflection of the downturn in employment in the North Sea which is still feeding through the system. Just another illustration of the risks of having an economy so dependent on a single source of wealth not only for government revenues but also for employment.
    That sounds like an excuse David - this is the 3rd or 4th month in a row. Also the zero tolerance drink driving laws (SNP brought in) is killing the hospitality industry.

    Sturg should be getting hauled over the coals for this.
    Scotland's employment rate is still higher than the UK's average.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Stage 3: UKIP were taking votes from Labour by mistake
    notme said:



    Stage 2: It was all the tory media's fault.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    notme said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - Nats running Scotland

    Thats awful figures, especially when compared with the UK as a whole.

    That sounds like an excuse David - this is the 3rd or 4th month in a row. Also the zero tolerance drink driving laws (SNP brought in) is killing the hospitality industry.

    Sturg should be getting hauled over the coals for this.
    Well being accused of making excuses for the SNP is a new one for me!

    But the consequences of the downturn in the North Sea are very considerable. Contracts are coming to an end and not being renewed. Investment is right down. Some of the excesses (such as having half the hotel rooms in Aberdeen booked just in case people come onshore unexpectedly) have been cut back. Because of the structure of the industry this has not generated the headline redundancies that other industries might but it has been large and is on going.

    I agree about the drink driving limit. That was a piece of self-inflicted stupidity that we could have done without. Our local publican was telling me it has hit them harder than the smoking ban.

    The other worry is that there are hints that some of the contingency plans put in place by financial services before the Referendum are quietly being implemented. The continuing uncertainty is not good for business. Not at all.
    And its without any kind of scientific reasoning. It's one of those things that pretty much cant be rolled back. Who would risk their political career on the next headline about a fatal car crash with someone who had one glass of wine, but under limit?
    last I heard there had been something like 4 convictions in Scotland of someone who would have been legal under the old limit but is not under the new one. 4. In Scotland.

    The truth is that the vast majority of people convicted of drink driving these days have either got a serious problem with alcohol (in which case they really should be off the road) or were involved in some sort of domestic tiff or crisis and ended up driving when they had no intention to do so.

    We now have a situation where people are frightened to have a glass of wine with a meal, don't stop for a single pint after work with their mates before they head home and feel they can't have even one drink when taking designated driver responsibilities. This is undoubtedly having a disproportionate impact on the restaurant and pub trade. Just stupid.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Plato said:

    Stage 3: UKIP were taking votes from Labour by mistake

    notme said:



    Stage 2: It was all the tory media's fault.

    Taking votes from Labour by mistake?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Woolie, it's highly unlikely, even in that scenario. A quicker referendum, though, with Cameron reluctantly going to Out, *could* happen [I think it'd take a hell of a lot for him to shift that way, though].
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Just for fun - ages ago we used to have PB surveys using SurveyMonkey.

    I'd love to see one re the EU In or Out.

    If Mr Cameron gets the right balance of concessions, I'll vote In - if not, I'm a BOOer.
This discussion has been closed.